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GOT TO KNOW THE FACTS!!!. BIGFOOT INVESTMENTS OPEN FORUM Apr 11th , 2013 WELCOME!. AGENDA WELCOME! ADMIN NOTES QUOTE OF THE DAY OPTIMISM GAUGE CHARTS OF INTEREST SO WHAT’S UP WITH: TRADING SYSTEMS A CLOSER LOOK AT: LUV DAVID’S CORNER SWAPS AND SPREADS LEE’S COMMENTS - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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GOT TO KNOW THE FACTS!!!

Built By Advisors For AdvisorsBIGFOOT INVESTMENTS OPEN FORUM

Apr 11th, 2013

WELCOME!

Built By Advisors For Advisors2AGENDA WELCOME! ADMIN NOTESQUOTE OF THE DAYOPTIMISM GAUGECHARTS OF INTERESTSO WHATS UP WITH: TRADING SYSTEMS A CLOSER LOOK AT: LUV DAVIDS CORNERSWAPS AND SPREADSLEES COMMENTS QUESTIONS/COMMENTS

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THANK YOU! NOTESBuilt By Advisors For Advisors

BigFoot Investments is now on Twitter, LinkedIn!Built By Advisors For AdvisorsBigFoot On LinkedIn!Dont Forget To Join Our Group

Built By Advisors For AdvisorsNotifying You!SMS Alert SystemBuilt By Advisors For Advisors QUOTE OF THE DAY:In investing the winner is not the person with the most hits..Doug Shortit is the person with the fewest errors!Built By Advisors For AdvisorsOptimism GaugeAs of: 4/11/2013Built By Advisors For AdvisorsIndicatorCurrent ValuePrior/Metric ValueCurrent ValueSt Louis Fed Financial Stress Index-0.666-0.646(Revised)+1.0Chicago Fed National Act Index (3 Mon Mov Av)0.090.28(Revised)-.50

Unemployment7.77.9 (Revised)+.50Weekly Jobless Claims (4Wk Mov Av)358,000355,000(Revised)-.50ECRI Weekly Index6.26.5 (Revised)+.50Conf Board Leading Indicators (NEW)94.193.9+1.0University of Michigan Sentiment - Final78.6(Final Mar 2013)77.6(Final-Feb 2012)-.25Monthly Retail Sales (Adjusted)416,990416,070+.50NFIB Small Business Sentiment89.590.8-.50ISM Manufacturing51.3(Expansion Line = 50)54.2+.50Economic Capacity Utilization79.179.3(Revised)+.50Stock Market Moving Averages Weekly Data Points>50-day MA/>100-Day MAN/A

+.50S&P Case-Shiller 20 City Comp Index146.14145.95 (Revised)+.50Total+3.75Last Update: 4/11/2013Measuring Our Economy10 NOTES/COMMENTS CURRENT READING: 67.7% PRIOR READING: 67.7%

BIAS: MILDLY BULLISH

9 OF 13 INDICATORS POSITIVE

TREND - NeutralEconomicOptimismIndex152535456575859567.7%READING AS OF: 4/11/2013POSITIVE AS OF: 8/17/2012 Current ReadingPrior ReadingMeasuring Our Economy11Charts of Interest!Built By Advisors For Advisors12Federal Reserve SlidesBuilt By Advisors For Advisors13

LATEST DATA ( REPORTED APR 2013) COMPARED TO PREVIOUSSecurities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment Advisor and is not affiliated with Triad Advisors.Source: Federal Reserve

14GDP FORECASTSecurities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment Advisor and is not affiliated with Triad Advisors.Source: Federal Reserve

15UNEMPLOYMENT FORECASTSecurities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment Advisor and is not affiliated with Triad Advisors.Source: Federal Reserve

16INFLATION FORECASTSecurities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment Advisor and is not affiliated with Triad Advisors.Source: Federal Reserve

17FOMC PARTICIPANT ASSESSMENTSSecurities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment Advisor and is not affiliated with Triad Advisors.Source: Federal Reserve

18Source: BLSMaybe Not All Bad!

Looking at the long-term!Current dataA CLOSER LOOK AT THE CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (CES)Built By Advisors For Advisors19

LOOKING AT THE RAW DATA Source: dShort

Built By Advisors For AdvisorsSource: dShortS&P Inflation Adjusted!

EVEN with 1997Built By Advisors For Advisors21Source: FREDHow Low Can You Go?

Built By Advisors For Advisors22Source: Calculated RiskGnawing Reality!

Built By Advisors For Advisors23Source: Business InsiderOf Tulips and Bitcoins!

Built By Advisors For Advisors24Source: Business Insider

Aug 2012 = $10If You Believe Go Mining Have Been $250 each!

Bitcoin Bounces Back After Crashing Nearly 60% - Closes at $200 (4/10/2013)Built By Advisors For Advisors25Source: Business InsiderYour Wallet!

Your Money!Built By Advisors For Advisors26

AN ASSESSMENTVirtual Currency has a BAD SOUNDFirst in win last in loseNot really that liquidIt will lose its pure purposeLike Bearer Bonds Once gone theyre gone - Estimated 10% have been stolenNO stable exchange rateNO physical nexusTHE GOVERNMENT WILL BE WATCHING

TULIPS ANYONE?Built By Advisors For Advisors

SO WHATS UP WITH:UNDERSTANDING A TRADING SYSTEM

Built By Advisors For AdvisorsThe price is falling!

Source: AAII

TRADING OR TRADING SYSTEM?TIME IS YOUR FRIEND.IMPULSE IS YOUR ENEMY Jack Bogle

THE PRICE IS FALLING

DISCUSSION TOPICS

THE PRICE IS FALLING

1INVESTING TRUISMSTRUTH #1 AT SOME POINT A STOCKS PRICE WILL FALL

TRUTH #2 DO NOT OVERREACT TO PRICE FLUCTUATIONS

TRUTH #3 NEVER BECOME EMOTIONAL ABOUT A STOCK

TRUTH #4 NEVER FALL IN LOVE WITH A COMPANY

THE PRICE IS FALLING

THE BASICS2THE BASICS ARE ESSENTIALENTRY PRICE IS NOT ALWAYS AN EXIT FACTORONCE YOU BUY A STOCK STAND ON YOUR HEADCOMPANY FUNDAMENTALS MATTERFUTURE PROSPECTS ARE CRITICALDECISIONS MUST BE NON-EMOTIONALRECURRING THEMES ARE IMPORTANTMARKETS HAVE IMPACTINDUSTRY MATTERSFIRM-SPECIFICS WARRANT CONCERN

PRICE PAID IS NOTA PRIME FACTOR IN SELLINGREASONS TO SELL AREREALLY THE SAME AS BUYINGCOMPANY FUNDAMENTALSNEED TO BE REVIEWED OFTENALWAYS CONSIDER THE NEXTSTEP FOR A COMPANY REMEMBER THE BUGGY WHIPEMOTIONAL DECISIONSARE USUALLLY WRONGCOMPANIES FOLLOW PATTERNSKNOW THEM!MARKETS HAVE IMPACT BUTDONT AFFECT ALL STOCKS EQUALLY KNOW THE DYNAMICSINDUSTRY MATTERS SOMESAY UP TO 50% OF A STOCKSPRICE IS RELATED TO SECTORFIRM-SPECIFICS ARE CRITICAL-THINK AIRLINES

THE PRICE IS FALLING

3MARKET DYNAMICSTRADING ON MARKET WEAKNESS BY ITSELF NEVER A REASON TO SELLTAKE A LONGER-TERM PERSPECTIVE ON THE COMPANYKNOW THE STOCK VERSUS THE MARKETBE AWARE OF PRICE/VOLUME INCONSISTENCIESEXTREME VOLATILITY IS USUALLY A NEGATIVEHAVE AN EXIT STRATEGY

THE PRICE IS FALLING

3STOCK DYNAMICSTHE TECHNICALS CAN NOT BE IGNOREDOFTEN MORE OF A TRADE THAN A POSITIONSHORTER HORIZONSIF NOT A TRADER DONT OVERREACTFUNDAMENTALS CAN DRIVE TECHNICALSTHEY CAN BE SUBJECTIVEIN A SENSE THEY ARE LAGGING INDICATORSWE ARE NOT TECHNICAL TRADERS

THE PRICE IS FALLING

4INDUSTRY CONSIDERATIONSSECTOR/INDUSTRY FACTORSSTRUCTURAL CHANGES DO OCCUR SECULAR PATTERNS CAN BE TOUGHBE AWARE OF CYCLICAL TRENDSREGULATORY CHANGES MEAN THINGSINDUSTRY LIABILITY ISSUES GET EVERYBODYCOMPETITOR ANNOUNCEMENTS CAN MOVE STOCK PRICESFRANCHISE DAMAGE IS HARD TO OVERCOME PRICING POWER AFFECTS MARGINS

THE PRICE IS FALLING

5FIRM-SPECIFIC ISSUESTHINGS GO WRONGEXTRAORDINARY EVENTSNatural DisastersProduct RecallsProduct LiabilityEARNINGS REPORTSDont Bet on earningsDont Overreact Listen/ReadBad Earnings Take a Quarter to RecoverMANAGEMENT ISSUESAUDITOR CHANGESBUY OR BUY/OUTPRICE CANT GO UP ANY FURTHER!?PRICE MOVING DOWN

THE PRICE IS FALLING

CONCLUSIONSBIGGEST PROBLEM FACING INVESTORS: EMOTIONSCREEN MONTHLY CAN CATCH LAGGARDSSTOCK PICKING GETS MORE CRITICAL AS MARKETS MOVE UPTO BE SUCCESSFUL TRADING PLATFORMS MUST:Be quantifiableAvoid interpretationBe consistent/repeatableTest expectancySpecify exact entry/exit pointsHave a reasonable level of complexityBe explainableHave disciplined usersSTAY RATIONALE

A CLOSER LOOK AT: LUV Built By Advisors For Advisors

Enters PortfolioBuilt By Advisors For Advisors39Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)Southwest Airlines Co. operates passenger airlines that provide scheduled air transportation services in the United States. As of December 31, 2012, the company operated 694 aircraft, including 606 Boeing 737 aircraft and 88 Boeing 717 aircraft. It served 97 destinations in 41 states, the District of Columbia, and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, as well as 6 near-international countries, including Mexico, Jamaica, The Bahamas, Aruba, Dominican Republic, and Bermuda. It also sells frequent flyer points and/or credits and related services to business partners participating in the Rapid Rewards frequent flyer program, including car rental agencies, hotels, restaurants, and retail locations. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.Source: FinViz.com, April 2013

Source: Morningstar, April 2013POSITIVES: Preying on weaker competitors, Southwest has used the downturn to expand service offerings to Minneapolis-St. Paul, New York LaGuardia, and Boston Logan airports. If successful, these new markets will provide ample growth opportunities going forward.

Possible concerns: Airlines for America estimates that the tax percentage on airfare has tripled to roughly 20% of the price of a ticket today, up from 7% in 1972. Analysts don't expect the amount of taxation to decrease going forward, especially as the government contemplates ways to pay for increased security measures, so Southwest and the industry likely will receive a smaller share of future ticket proceeds.Southwest Airlines Co. (LUV)

ENTERS PORTFOLIO 4/1/2013Buy 4/1/2013 $13.29 Built By Adv