built by advisors for advisors got to know the facts!!!

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  • Slide 1
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors GOT TO KNOW THE FACTS!!!
  • Slide 2
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors BIGFOOT INVESTMENTS OPEN FORUM Apr 11th, 2013 WELCOME!
  • Slide 3
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors AGENDA WELCOME! ADMIN NOTES QUOTE OF THE DAY OPTIMISM GAUGE CHARTS OF INTEREST SO WHATS UP WITH: TRADING SYSTEMS A CLOSER LOOK AT: LUV DAVIDS CORNER SWAPS AND SPREADS LEES COMMENTS QUESTIONS/COMMENTS
  • Slide 4
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors IF YOU USE ANY OF OUR SLIDES, PLEASE REMEMBER TO HAVE THEM APPROVED BY YOUR COMPLIANCE DEPARTMENT. WELL UN-MUTE YOU ON OUR END SO YOU CAN ASK QUESTIONS. PLEASE MUTE AUDIO FROM THE MENU ON YOUR SCREEN SO WE DO NOT GET FEEDBACK. THANK YOU! IIF YOU USE ANY OF OUR SLIDES, PLEASE REMEMBER TO HAVE THEM APPROVED BY YOUR COMPLIANCE DEPARTMENT. WELL UN-MUTE YOU ON OUR END SO YOU CAN ASK QUESTIONS. PLEASE MUTE AUDIO FROM THE MENU ON YOUR SCREEN SO WE DO NOT GET FEEDBACK. THANK YOU! NOTESNOTES
  • Slide 5
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors BigFoot Investments is now on Twitter, LinkedIn!
  • Slide 6
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors BigFoot On LinkedIn! Dont Forget To Join Our Group
  • Slide 7
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors Notifying You! SMS Alert System
  • Slide 8
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors QUOTE OF THE DAY: QUOTE OF THE DAY: In investing the winner is not the person with the most hits.. Doug Short it is the person with the fewest errors!
  • Slide 9
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors Optimism Gauge As of: 4/11/2013
  • Slide 10
  • IndicatorCurrent ValuePrior/Metric ValueCurrent Value St Louis Fed Financial Stress Index -0.666-0.646(Revised)+1.0 Chicago Fed National Act Index (3 Mon Mov Av) 0.090.28(Revised) -.50 Unemployment7.77.9 (Revised)+.50 Weekly Jobless Claims (4Wk Mov Av) 358,000355,000(Revised)-.50 ECRI Weekly Index6.26.5 (Revised)+.50 Conf Board Leading Indicators (NEW) 94.193.9+1.0 University of Michigan Sentiment - Final78.6(Final Mar 2013)77.6(Final-Feb 2012)-.25 Monthly Retail Sales (Adjusted)416,990416,070+.50 NFIB Small Business Sentiment89.590.8-.50 ISM Manufacturing 51.3 (Expansion Line = 50) 54.2+.50 Economic Capacity Utilization79.179.3(Revised)+.50 Stock Market Moving Averages Weekly Data Points >50-day MA/>100-Day MA N/A +.50 S&P Case-Shiller 20 City Comp Index 146.14145.95 (Revised)+.50 Total+3.75 Last Update: 4/11/2013
  • Slide 11
  • NOTES/COMMENTS CURRENT READING: 67.7% PRIOR READING: 67.7% BIAS: MILDLY BULLISH 9 OF 13 INDICATORS POSITIVE TREND - Neutral NOTES/COMMENTS CURRENT READING: 67.7% PRIOR READING: 67.7% BIAS: MILDLY BULLISH 9 OF 13 INDICATORS POSITIVE TREND - Neutral Economic Optimism Index Economic Optimism Index 15 25 35 4565 75 85 95 67.7% READING AS OF: 4/11/2013 POSITIVE AS OF: 8/17/2012 Current ReadingPrior Reading
  • Slide 12
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors Charts of Interest!
  • Slide 13
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors Federal Reserve Slides
  • Slide 14
  • LATEST DATA ( REPORTED APR 2013) COMPARED TO PREVIOUS Securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment Advisor and is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Source: Federal Reserve
  • Slide 15
  • GDP FORECAST Securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment Advisor and is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Source: Federal Reserve
  • Slide 16
  • UNEMPLOYMENT FORECAST Securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment Advisor and is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Source: Federal Reserve
  • Slide 17
  • INFLATION FORECAST Securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment Advisor and is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Source: Federal Reserve
  • Slide 18
  • FOMC PARTICIPANT ASSESSMENTS Securities offered through Triad Advisors, member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Lee Johnson Capital Management, LLC (LJCM). LJCM is an independent Registered Investment Advisor and is not affiliated with Triad Advisors. Source: Federal Reserve
  • Slide 19
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors Source: BLS Maybe Not All Bad! Looking at the long-term! Current data A CLOSER LOOK AT THE CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS (CES)
  • Slide 20
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors LOOKING AT THE RAW DATA Source: dShort
  • Slide 21
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors Source: dShort S&P Inflation Adjusted! EVEN with 1997
  • Slide 22
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors Source: FRED How Low Can You Go?
  • Slide 23
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors Source: Calculated Risk Gnawing Reality!
  • Slide 24
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors Source: Business Insider Of Tulips and Bitcoins!
  • Slide 25
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors Source: Business Insider Aug 2012 = $10 If You Believe Go Mining Have Been $250 each! Bitcoin Bounces Back After Crashing Nearly 60% - Closes at $200 (4/10/2013)
  • Slide 26
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors Source: Business Insider Your Wallet! Your Money!
  • Slide 27
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors AN ASSESSMENT Virtual Currency has a BAD SOUND First in win last in lose Not really that liquid It will lose its pure purpose Like Bearer Bonds Once gone theyre gone - Estimated 10% have been stolen NO stable exchange rate NO physical nexus THE GOVERNMENT WILL BE WATCHING TULIPS ANYONE?
  • Slide 28
  • Built By Advisors For Advisors SO WHATS UP WITH: UNDERSTANDING A TRADING SYSTEM SO WHATS UP WITH: UNDERSTANDING A TRADING SYSTEM
  • Slide 29
  • THE PRICE IS FALLING ! Source: AAII TRADING OR TRADING SYSTEM? TIME IS YOUR FRIEND.IMPULSE IS YOUR ENEMY Jack Bogle
  • Slide 30
  • THE PRICE IS FALLING 1 INVESTING TRUISMS 2 THE BASICS 3 MARKET/STOCK DYANAMICS 4 INDUSTRY CONSIDERATIONS 5 FIRM SPECIFIC FACTORS DISCUSSION TOPICS
  • Slide 31
  • THE PRICE IS FALLING 1 1 INVESTING TRUISMS TRUTH #1 AT SOME POINT A STOCKS PRICE WILL FALL TRUTH #2 DO NOT OVERREACT TO PRICE FLUCTUATIONS TRUTH #3 NEVER BECOME EMOTIONAL ABOUT A STOCK TRUTH #4 NEVER FALL IN LOVE WITH A COMPANY
  • Slide 32
  • THE PRICE IS FALLING THE BASICS 2 2 THE BASICS ARE ESSENTIAL ENTRY PRICE IS NOT ALWAYS AN EXIT FACTOR ONCE YOU BUY A STOCK STAND ON YOUR HEAD COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS MATTER FUTURE PROSPECTS ARE CRITICAL DECISIONS MUST BE NON-EMOTIONAL RECURRING THEMES ARE IMPORTANT MARKETS HAVE IMPACT INDUSTRY MATTERS FIRM-SPECIFICS WARRANT CONCERN PRICE PAID IS NOT A PRIME FACTOR IN SELLING PRICE PAID IS NOT A PRIME FACTOR IN SELLING REASONS TO SELL ARE REALLY THE SAME AS BUYING REASONS TO SELL ARE REALLY THE SAME AS BUYING COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS NEED TO BE REVIEWED OFTEN COMPANY FUNDAMENTALS NEED TO BE REVIEWED OFTEN ALWAYS CONSIDER THE NEXT STEP FOR A COMPANY REMEMBER THE BUGGY WHIP ALWAYS CONSIDER THE NEXT STEP FOR A COMPANY REMEMBER THE BUGGY WHIP EMOTIONAL DECISIONS ARE USUALLLY WRONG EMOTIONAL DECISIONS ARE USUALLLY WRONG COMPANIES FOLLOW PATTERNS KNOW THEM! COMPANIES FOLLOW PATTERNS KNOW THEM! MARKETS HAVE IMPACT BUT DONT AFFECT ALL STOCKS EQUALLY KNOW THE DYNAMICS MARKETS HAVE IMPACT BUT DONT AFFECT ALL STOCKS EQUALLY KNOW THE DYNAMICS INDUSTRY MATTERS SOME SAY UP TO 50% OF A STOCKS PRICE IS RELATED TO SECTOR INDUSTRY MATTERS SOME SAY UP TO 50% OF A STOCKS PRICE IS RELATED TO SECTOR FIRM-SPECIFICS ARE CRITICAL- THINK AIRLINES FIRM-SPECIFICS ARE CRITICAL- THINK AIRLINES
  • Slide 33
  • THE PRICE IS FALLING 3 3 MARKET DYNAMICS TRADING ON MARKET WEAKNESS BY ITSELF NEVER A REASON TO SELL TAKE A LONGER-TERM PERSPECTIVE ON THE COMPANY KNOW THE STOCK VERSUS THE MARKET BE AWARE OF PRICE/VOLUME INCONSISTENCIES EXTREME VOLATILITY IS USUALLY A NEGATIVE HAVE AN EXIT STRATEGY
  • Slide 34
  • THE PRICE IS FALLING 3 3 STOCK DYNAMICS THE TECHNICALS CAN NOT BE IGNORED OFTEN MORE OF A TRADE THAN A POSITION SHORTER HORIZONS IF NOT A TRADER DONT OVERREACT FUNDAMENTALS CAN DRIVE TECHNICALS THEY CAN BE SUBJECTIVE IN A SENSE THEY ARE LAGGING INDICATORS WE ARE NOT TECHNICAL TRADERS
  • Slide 35
  • THE PRICE IS FALLING 4 4 INDUSTRY CONSIDERATIONS SECTOR/INDUSTRY FACTORS STRUCTURAL CHANGES DO OCCUR SECULAR PATTERNS CAN BE TOUGH BE AWARE OF CYCLICAL TRENDS REGULATORY CHANGES MEAN THINGS INDUSTRY LIABILITY ISSUES GET EVERYBODY COMPETITOR ANNOUNCEMENTS CAN MOVE STOCK PRICES FRANCHISE DAMAGE IS HARD TO OVERCOME PRICING POWER AFFECTS MARGINS
  • Slide 36
  • THE PRICE IS FALLING 5 5 FIRM-SPECIFIC ISSUES THINGS GO WRONG EXTRAORDINARY EVENTS Natural Disasters Product Recalls Product Liability EARNINGS REPORTS Dont Bet on earnings Dont Overreact Listen/Read Bad Earnings Take a Quarter to Recover MANAGEMENT ISSUES AU