global market forecast 2013- 2032 - airbus...2022 2027 2032 air traffic has doubled every 15 years...

Global Market Forecast 2013-2032 Drivers for Growth

January 2014

Presentation by: Bob Lange

SVP, Market & Product Strategy

© AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Topics

The Market – Today & forecast (GMF)

Airbus product response

January 2014


Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

Source: ICAO, Airbus

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

Gulf Crisis Oil Crisis Asian Crisis

WTC Attack Oil Crisis SARS

Financial Crisis

67% growth through multiple crises over the last ten years

67%

January 2014


-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Real GDP Passenger traffic (ASKs)

Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth

World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year)

2008

World air transport strongly recovering after 12 months of slower growth

+7.4%

December passenger traffic

Source: IHS Global Insight (December 2013 data), OAG (ASKs data), Airbus

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

January 2014


History Forecast

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

A two-speed world

54 emerging economies.

Data Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

Emerging economies*

Mature economies

Real GDP growth (%)

Comparison of year-over-year GDP growth

January 2014


-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

Passenger traffic growth varies by region

Strong growth on Emerging Markets, US and Europe catching up 2009

ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%) +12.8%

Emerging markets traff ic

+5.3%

Western Europe traff ic

+3.7%

US traff ic

Source: OAG, Airbus

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

January 2014


Emerging economies are driving future growth

Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

67% World

population (5.7 billion people)

40%

World GDP

54% World

passenger trips

51% World fleet-in-service

Emerging economies represents 50% of new aircraft demand over the next 20 years

2032

69% World

population(4.9 billion

people)

28%

World GDP

39% World

passenger trips

39% World

fleet-in-service

Today

Emerging economies (54 countries) All other countries (150 countries)

January 2014


Diverse emerging economies spread across the globe

Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

Emerging economies (54 countries) All other countries (150 countries)

January 2014


0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Trips* per capita - 2012

2012 GDP per capita ($US)

More new fliers from the emerging markets

Source: Sabre (annualized September 2012 data), IHS Global Insight, Airbus

* Passengers originating from respective country

1/5 of the

population of the emerging

countries took a trip in 2012

2/3 of the

population of the emerging countries will take a trip a

year in 2032

Trips* per capita over GDP per capita

India .05 trips per

capita

China .26 trips per

capita

USA 1.53 trips per capita

United Kingdom 1.91 trips per capita

India - 2032 .25 trips per

capita

China - 2032 .95 trips per

capita

January 2014


13,823

20,276 - 6,041

12,494

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1992 2012

Only 40% of today’s network was there 20 years ago

Source: OAG

Dropped between 1992 and 2012

Number of airport pairs served

New between 1992 and 2012

January 2014 January 2014


GMF 2013 new routes

The GMF 2013 has around 4,000 new airline / airport-pairs by 2032

January 2014


2012 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers

42 cities in the world handle more than 10,000 long haul passengers per day …

Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres Traffic as of month of September; Source: GMF 2013

Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;

• >50 000 daily long-haul passengers • >20 000 daily long-haul passengers • >10 000 daily long-haul passengers

93% of long-haul traffic

on routes to/from/via 42 cities

42 Aviation Mega-

cities

0.8M Daily Passengers:

Long Haul traffic to /from/via Mega Cities

traffic

January 2014


… and by 2032 there will be 90 Mega-cities

Long-haul traffic is more and more concentrated on main aviation centres Traffic as of month of September. Source: GMF 2013

Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;

2032 cities with more than 10,000 daily long-haul passengers

• >50 000 daily long-haul passengers • >20 000 daily long-haul passengers • >10 000 daily long-haul passengers

99% of long-haul traffic

on routes to/from/via 90 cities

2.2M Daily Passengers:

Long Haul traffic to /from/via Mega Cities

89 Aviation Mega-

cities

January 2014


0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

Thai SingaporeQantas MalaysiaLufthansa KoreanEmirates China SouthernAir France

A380s link the worlds Aviation Mega-cities

Over 150 flights per day carrying more than 1.5m passengers per month

A380 weekly departures: August 2013 - Source: OAG

Top 15 A380 airports ranked by weekly departures Weekly departures

January 2014


Most routes within Asia-Pacific increased their number of daily frequencies in the last 20-years

Source: OAG, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts

Note: Only routes that have remained in operation in 1993 and 2013

Number of airport-pairs with increases in daily aircraft movements

Sector length(nautical miles)

Routes with increases in frequencies 2013 vs. 1993

January 2014


973 of the 1,496 airport-pairs operated in Asia-Pacific have increased their average capacity

Source: OAG, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts

Note: Only routes that have remained in operation in 1993 and 2013

Number of airport-pairs with increases in average capacity per flight

Sector length (nautical miles)

Routes with increases in capacity 2013 vs. 1993

January 2014


Airlines are choosing larger single-aisle aircraft

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

GMF 2013* Backlog - 2013

210-seater 175-seater150-seater 125-seater100-seater A321 & 737-9A320 & 737-8 A318/A319 & 737-6/-7

Single-aisle backlog by type

Source: Ascend (October 31st of each year), Airbus *- Demand for first 10 years ending in 2022

January 2014


Airbus Global Market Forecast

Airlines • Business Models • Operations • Competition • Geopolitics

Trends Analysis • Consumer & Travel

Surveys • Tourism • Migration • Traffic flows • Passenger demands

Governments & Regulators

• Liberalization/ deregulation

• Investments and constraints

• Geopolitics

Market Research

Network Development

• Route planning • Origin and

destination demand • Population centers

Traffic • Economics and

Econometrics • Fuel costs • Yields • Load Factors • Trade and Value of

Goods

Fleet trends • Aircraft economics • Utilization • Fleet age and

retirements

Forecast

A 20 year aircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast

January 2014


Aviation shapes the world

Origin-destination passenger traffic per city, 2013 – 2032 growth and 2032 volume

0% 13%

Traffic growth (20-year CAGR)

25 mio 12 0.1

Traffic volume (monthly O&D PAX)

2012 2022 2032

January 2014


Traffic will double in the next 15 years

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032

Air traffic has doubled every 15 years

Air traffic will double in the next 15 years

Airbus GMF 2013

ICAO total traffic

Source: ICAO, Airbus

World annual RPK (trillion)

4.4%

2022-2032

5.1%

2012-2022

4.7%

2012-2032

January 2014


0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Asia-Pacific

Europe

North America

Middle East

Latin America

CIS

Africa

Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2032

2012 traffic 2012-2032 traffic 29%

26%

25%

8%

5%

4%

3%

20-year world annual traffic growth

4.7%

5.5%

3.8%

3.0%

7.1%

6.0%

5.8%

5.1%

% of 2012 world RPK

20-year growth

34%

22%

18%

12%

7%

4%

3%

% of 2032 world RPK

RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions)

January 2014


Demand for over 29,200 new aircraft

17,739

New aircraft 29,226

+ 3.7% per annum

Fleet in service evolution; 2013-2032

36,556

Source: Airbus Note: Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats, Freighter aircraft ≥10 tonnes

Stay in service & Converted

Replaced

Growth

7,330

10,409

18,817

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Beginning 2013 2032

January 2014


0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

Single-aisle & Small jetfreighters

Small-twin aisle &Regional freighters

Intermediate twin-aisle &Long range freighters

Large aircraft & Largefreighters

GMF 2012

GMF 2013

Single-aisle: 69% of units; Twin-aisle: 43% of value

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

Source: Airbus

69% 17% 8% 6% % units

41% 26% 17% 16% % value

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

29,226 New

Deliveries 2013 -2032

January 2014


20-year demand for 29,230 new passenger and freight aircraft

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft

Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

1,711 very large aircraft

Market value of $4.4 trillion

7,273 twin-aisle aircraft

20,242 single-aisle aircraft

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)

29,226 new aircraft

+724 aircraft over GMF 2012

+299 aircraft

+5 aircraft

+1,028 aircraft

Source: Airbus GMF

January 2014


Higher expectations and more competition

Safe

Sim

ple

Affordable & Profitable

Eco-efficient G

row

th Fuel price

Competition

Reg

ulat

ions

January 2014


• A350XWB nearly >800 aircraft, 39 customers • Family ideally sized for market today & tomorrow • Cross section = comfort • Answers medium & long range needs

Airbus products meeting customer needs

• A320 family nearly ~10,200 sold, ~5,900 delivered • A320neo >2,600 sold to 48 customers • 15% lower fuel burn • more range

• Offers greatest cabin flexibility • Quiet inside and out • Efficiently connecting mega-cities • Minimising seat costs, maximising comfort • A380 effect, load factors & yield = profit • >300 sold, >120 delivered

• A330 > 1,300 aircraft sold • >800 sold since 787 launch • More than 1,000 delivered • Repeat ordering, particularly Asia • Continuous product improvement – 242t MTOW

A320ceo & neo family

A380

A330

A350XWB

Data to end 2013

January 2014


A350XWB Competitive Landscape

777-8X (329 to 355 seats)*

787-10 (334 seats)

200

250

300

350

400

450

A350-800 (271 seats)

A350-900 (312 seats)

A350-1000 (364 seats)

787-8 (246 seats)

787-9 (280 seats)

Seat

Cap

acity

Airbus Boeing

777-9X (384 to 417 seats)*

A350 faces two families alone

January 2014


Airbus A380-800 - 25% composite materials - Quietest cabin in the sky - New flight deck functions - Integrated Modular Avionics - 2 H / 2 E architecture - Full use of a Digital Mock-Up

Innovation - a good start to the 21st Century

Dates represent EIS

2007 to 2015

2014

Airbus A350 XWB - 53% composite materials - Latest generation IFE and connectivity - Development of screen displays - Integrated Modular Avionics - 2 H / 2 E architecture - Full use of a Digital Mock-Up

Airbus A320neo - ‘Sharklet’ wingtip design for improved aerodynamics - Step change engine technology development

2015

January 2014

2007

Thank you

global market forecast 2013- 2032 - airbus...2022 2027 2032 air traffic has doubled every 15 years...

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