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Airbus Global Market forecast: Impact on Air Traffic Management

March 2014

Marc Hamy Head of Air Transport Affairs

Airbus SAS Vice President

Airbus Global Market Forecast

© AIRBUS China LTD. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

World real GDP

World passenger traffic (ASKs)

Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth

+7.2%

February 2014 Passenger Traffic

Percent growth (year-over-year)

March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: IHS Global Insight, OAG, Airbus

World real GDP and Passenger traffic

演示者

演示文稿备注

This industry is integrated with the economic development. And in this chart we can clearly see the correlation. Crisis, air traffic plummeted Strong Recovery of 2010 Slow growth in 2012 due to an uncertain economic climat and low business and consumer confidence the traffic growth is again outperforming the GDP growth. Euro zone has stabilised US economy appears to be stronger Hard landing in PRC has been avoided. All this contributes to a higher business and consumer confidence boosting air travel.


Emerging markets are leading traffic growth

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

+4.2%

Western Europe Traffic

+3.5%

US Traffic

Percent change (year-over-year)

+12.4%

Emerging Markets Traffic

Source: OAG, Airbus

ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

演示者

演示文稿备注

Air traffic by region. US and Europe pretty much the same growth. Both markets, quite mature enjoy a relative low growth rate but from a very strong base. Now what’s striking is the emerging markets. On average more than 9% growth in the last 4 years even during the crisis. Today it’s 11.8%.And with this kind of growth, you need huge amount of new aircraft to satisfy such a surge in demand. There are not a lot of industries in the world with this kind of growth.


Middle Class will probably double increasing the number of people having access to Air Transport

675 698 675 265 262 253

856

2,038

3,526

432

578

757

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2012 2022 2032

Other Asia-Pacific North America Europe & CIS 3,576

2,228

5,211 x2.4

World Population

% of world population

8,400 7,800 7,100 62% 46% 32%

Source: Kharas and Gertz (OECD), Airbus Definition: Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)

Global Middle Class, millions of people



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032

Industry to double as new markets are tapped

Source: ICAO, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts

Airbus GMF 2013 ICAO total traffic

World annual RPK (trillion)

2012-2020 5.2% p.a.

2022-2032 4.4% p.a.

Annual traffic growth to 2020

5.2% Air traffic has doubled every 15 years



0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Asia-Pacific

Europe

North America

Middle East

Latin America

CIS

Africa

Asia-Pacific to lead soon

2012 traffic 2012-2032 traffic 29%

26%

25%

8%

5%

4%

3%

5.5%

3.8%

3.0%

7.1%

6.0%

5.8%

5.1%

% of 2012 world RPK

20-year growth

34%

22%

18%

12%

7%

4%

3%

% of 2032 world RPK

RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions)

Source: Airbus GMF


In 2012, there were 100 cities with more than one million monthly passengers Cities with more than 1 million monthly O&D passengers, 2012

Source: SABRE, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts



In 2032, there will be 230 cities with more than one million monthly pax… Cities with more than 1 million monthly O&D passengers, 2032

Source: SABRE, Airbus Market Research and Forecasts


Impact on ATM of the forecasted air traffic growth


Growth can be accommodated by growth in frequency (more flights), or in capacity (larger aircraft) or both.

Frequency

Capacity Bubbles proportional to ASKs

Step 1: increase in Frequency only

Step 2: increase in both Frequency & Capacity

Step 3: increase in Capacity only (larger aircraft)

Maximum ATM/airport

service level

Satisfactory service level

New Route opening

Growth accommodation in Airbus forecasts


Source: Airbus Market Research and Forecasts


ATM has to address first frequency growth

Frequency


Step 1: improve infrastructure: New airports; New Runways

Step 2: Improve airspace management New routes; Better procedures; Improved ATM system.

Step 3: Better use of existing capacities to reduce delays: - ATFM; - A.CDM.

Traffic saturation

Airspace congestion

Airport congestion

Progressive capacity growth through improved infrastructure and ATM performance enhancement



ATM has also to address better flight efficiency by delivering better performance through ATM Modernization program

Frequency


Step 1: improve infrastructure: New airports; New Runways

Step 2: Improve airspace management New routes; Better procedures; Improved ATM system.

Step 3: Better use of existing capacities to reduce delays: - ATFM; - A.CDM.

Traffic saturation

Airspace congestion

Airport congestion

Improved ATM performance will deliver more capacity but also better efficiency


Step 4: ATM modernization programmes to further enhance capacity and improve efficiency

More Capacity

More Frequency

Or Better

Efficiency


Alleviating difficulties to create new opportunities

January 2014 A330 Regional- The Ideal Solution for the Fast Growing Markets ACCM 014/14

56 Million Jobs supported by Aviation (ATAG figures)

$ 2 Trillion Aviation’s global Economic impact

3,5% of global GDP

35000 City pairs served

2,8 Billion passengers Air Traffic congestion

Missed connections or flights cancelled

Over costs

Delays

More CO² Emissions

More Growth creating New Opportunities For the future

Difficulties

Today situation

Tomorrow situation

Opportunities

Conclusions


ATM Modernization key issues March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013

Allow more and more people to travel in the world by providing quickly more capacity, especially in fast growing countries

Allow better flight performance and reduce costs and delays, especially in countries already having a high density air traffic.

Allow a sustainable development of air traffic by contributing to lower CO² emissions and noise reduction.


The need to coordinate the efforts from board and ground March 2014 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013

Improved aircraft performance and capacity

Improved ATM and Airport performance and capacity

Better procedures and new operational concepts

Better airlines operations and increased capacity

Better satisfaction of passengers demand Better environment

Sustainable development of Air Transport

Thank you for your attention

airbus global market forecast: impact on air traffic...

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