airbus global market forecast 2013-2032 slides

7/29/2019 Airbus Global Market Forecast 2013-2032 Slides

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Global Market Forecast 2013-2032Presented by: JOHN LEAHYCOO, Customers


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AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Global Market Forecast 2013: Highlights

Market value of $4.4 trillion

Passenger aircraft 100 seats, Freight aircraft 10t

Source: Airbus GMF

GMF 2013 key numbers and 20-year change

World Fleet Forecast

RPK (trillions)

Total New Aircraft Deliveries 29,226

2012

5.5

2032

13.9

New passenger aircraftdeliveries 28,355

New freighter aircraft deliveries 871

% Change

151%

Passenger aircraft fleet 16,094 33,651 109%

Dedicated freighters 1,645 2,905 77%


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20-year demand for 29,230 new passenger and freightaircraft

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freight aircraft

Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

1,711very large aircraft

Market value of $4.4 trillion

7,273twin-aisle aircraft

20,242

single-aisle aircraft

Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats)

29,226new aircraft

+724 aircraft over GMF 2012

+299 aircraft

+5 aircraft

+1,028 aircraft

Source: Airbus GMF


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-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Real GDP

World passenger traffic (ASKs)

Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth

World real GDP and passenger traffic (year-over-year)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: IHS Global Insight (August 2013 data), OAG (ASKs data), Airbus

World air transport is recovering after 12 months of slower growth

+7.1%

August PassengerTraffic


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History Forecast

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015 2018

A two-speed world

54 emerging economies.

Data Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

Emergingeconomies*

Matureeconomies

Real GDP growth (%)

Comparison of year-over-year GDP growth


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Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions

Billions of people will increasingly want to travel by air

Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus

ChinaIndiaMiddle EastAsiaAfricaCIS

Latin AmericaEastern EuropeE

me

rging/Developing

Western EuropeNorth America

Japan

Yearly RPK growth2013 -2032

1billion

people2013

6billion

people2013

Ad

vanced


7/54 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Page 7

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N

Passenger traffic growth varies by region

Strong growth on Emerging Markets, US and Europe with positive growth

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: OAG, Airbus

ASKs year-over-year monthly evolution (%)

+13.2%

Emerging MarketsTraffic

+4.6%

Western EuropeTraffic

+2.4%

US Traffic


8/54 AIRBUS S.A.S. All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Emerging economies are driving future growth


67%of

worldwidepopulation(5.7 billion

people)

40%of

worldwideGDP

54%of world

passengertrips

51%of worldfleet-in-service

Emerging economies represents 50% of new aircraft demand over the next 20 years

2032

69%of

worldwidepopulation(4.9 billion

people)

28%of

worldwideGDP

39%of world

passengertrips

39%of worldfleet-in-service

Today

Emerging economies (54 countries)All other countries (150 countries)



0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000

Trips* per capita - 2012

2012 GDP per capita ($US)

More new fliers from the emerging markets

Source: Sabre (annualized September 2012 data), IHS Global Insight, Airbus

* Passengers originating from respective country

1/5of the

population ofthe emerging

countries took atrip in 2012

2/3of thepopulation ofthe emergingcountries willtake a trip a

year in 2032

Trips* per capita over GDP per capita

India.05 trips per

capita

China.26 trips per

capita

USA1.53 tripsper capita

UnitedKingdom1.91 tripsper capita

India - 2032.25 trips per

capita

China - 2032.95 trips per

capita



Air travel has proved to be resilient to external shocks

Source: ICAO, Airbus

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012

Gulf CrisisOil Crisis AsianCrisis WTCAttackOil Crisis SARS FinancialCrisis

67% growth through multiple crises over the last ten years

67%



2013 Airbus order backlog by region

Backlog of 5,190 aircraft

As at end August 2013 Corporate, MRTT and undisclosed 1%

AsiaPacific

36%

LatinAmerica

6%

Africa

1%

Europe &CIS

18%

Middle

East8%

Lessors

19%

NorthAmerica

12%



Main drivers of traffic and fleet growth

Aviation increasingly at the centre of peoples journeys

More people, more wealth, bigger citiesurban population set to grow from 51% todayto over 60%

Emerging markets, more first time flyers and a growing middle class which willgrow from 2.2 billion today to 5.2 billion

Growing tourism and internationalisation will stimulate demand

More liberalisation to come, particularly in Asia, Africa and Latin America

Replacement of less eco-efficient aircraft - 2/3 of existing fleet will be replaced

Low cost model set to grow in Asia-Pacific and Africa

Growth in the number of Aviation mega-cities driving demand for VLAs

M th 200X



Month 200X

Traffic will double in the next 15 years

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032

Air traffic has doubledevery 15 years

Air traffic will double

in the next 15 years

Airbus

GMF 2013

ICAO

total traffic

Source: ICAO, Airbus

World annual RPK (trillion)

4.4%

2022-2032

5.1%

2012-2022

4.7%

2012-2032



0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000

Asia-Pacific

Europe

North America

Middle East

Latin America

CIS

Africa

Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2032

2012 traffic 2012-2032 traffic 29%

26%

25%

8%

5%

4%

3%

20-yearworld annualtraffic growth

4.7%

5.5%

3.8%

3.0%

7.1%

6.0%

5.8%

5.1%

% of 2012

world RPK

20-year

growth

34%

22%

18%

12%

7%

4%

3%

% of 2032

world RPK

RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions)



Domestic PRC will be the largest flow in 2032

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Indian Sub - USA

South America - USA

Central Europe - Western Europe

PRC - USAAsia - USA

Indian Sub - Middle East

Western Europe - PRC

Asia - Middle East

Domestic Asia

Western Europe - South America

Western Europe - Middle East

Intra Asia

Domestic Brazil

Asia - PRC

Domestic India

Asia - Western Europe

Western Europe - USA

Intra Western Europe

Domestic USA

Domestic PRC

2012

2032

2012 2032 Billions RPK20-year CAGR

7.0%

1.9%

2.9%

3.0%

4.3%

9.8%

6.2%

7.0%

6.1%

4.8%

4.8%

5.7%

8.0%

5.7%

6.1%

4.2%

6.5%

5.9%

5.3%

6.6%

Largest O&D flows in 2032



0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

Single-aisle Small twin-aisle Intermediate twin-aisle Very Large Aircraft

GMF 2012

GMF 2013

Single-aisle: 69% of units; Wide-bodies: 59% of value

Passenger aircraft ( 100 seats) and jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

Source: Airbus

69% 17% 8% 6%% units

41% 26% 17% 16%% value

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

29,226

NewDeliveries

2013 -2032



Approaching 10,000 A320 Family sales

A take-off or landing every 2.5 seconds, with 99.6% reliability

End August 2013

9,821 firm orders

5,715 deliveries

4,106 firmorder backlog (1,758 ceo, 2,348 neo)



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040

High oil prices here for the long-term

History ForecastBrent oil price (current US$ per bbl)

Source: EIA, IHS CERA (May 2013), Airbus

Long-term oil price forecast



A320neo offers environmental benefits

Annual fuel savings of 15% equate to:

1.4 m litres of fuel: the consumption of 1000 mid size cars

3,600 tonnes of CO2

the CO2 absorption of 240,000 trees

NOx emissions 50% below CAEP/6

500nm more range

or 2 tonnes more payload

Aircraft noise up to 15dB below Stage IV

Significant environmental improvements


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A320neo leads the 737 MAX in orders and customers

Data to end August 2013, Source: Airbus Orders & Deliveries, Boeing.com

A320neo is the preferred market option

A320neo

2,348 orders61%

737 MAX

1,498 orders39%42 customers 20 customers

+8 unannounced orders


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A330 Family deliveries pass 1,000

A take-off or landing every 25 seconds, with 99.0% reliability

To end August 2013

1,256 firm orders

1,008 deliveries

248 backlog


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Maintaining market leadership

Delta order 10 x 242t A330-300s to add to their current A330-200/300 fleet


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242t A330-200 matches mature 787-8 range

Pax weight = 95kg, JAR 3% flight profile, LRC, 200nm diversion

787-8 227.9t MTOW, A330-200 242t MTOW

A330-200 7,250nm range with 246 pax

787-8 7,350nm range with 246 pax

MAURITIUS

MADRIDNEW YORK

DALLAS

ADDIS ABABA

ORLANDO

TOKYO

Trans-Pacific capabilityEuropean capability


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A350 XWB

To end August 2013

682 firm orders

35 customers

682backlog


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MSN1 First flight June 14th, 2013

10% of flight test completed 51 flights, 251 hours flown

Data for 19 September 2013


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A350 XWB a complete long-range family

A step ahead of the 787, a generation beyond the 777

Airbus

A350-800

A350-900

A350-1000

Boeing

One New Family oftechnically superior aircraft

777-9X

777-8X

777-300ER

787-10

787-9

787-8

Two aircraft typesa generation apart


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SIN

LHR

Unrivalled A350-1000 efficiency

The A350-1000 provides a step change in efficiency

6,500 nm mission, 350 passengers

+ 40TMTOW

777-300ER requires +40t higher MTOW(+20 t. Fuel burnt + 20 t. Structure)

A350-1000 is unbeatable


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2012 Aviation Mega-Cities

42 cities in the world handle more than 10,000 longhaul passengers per day

Long-haul traffic is concentrated on a few main aviation centres

>50 000 daily long-haul passengers >20 000 daily long-haul passengers >10 000 daily long-haul passengers

93%of long-haul trafficon routes to/from/via42 cities

42Aviation Mega-

cities

0.8MDaily Passengers:Long Haul traffic to

/from/via Mega Citiestraffic

Source: GMF 2013; Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers

Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;


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and by 2032 there will be 90 Mega-cities

Long-haul traffic is more and more concentrated on main aviation centres

Source: GMF 2013; Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers

Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic;

2032 Aviation Mega-Cities

>50 000 daily long-haul passengers >20 000 daily long-haul passengers >10 000 daily long-haul passengers

99%of long-haul trafficon routes to/from/via90 cities

2.2MDaily Passengers:Long Haul traffic to

/from/via Mega Cities

89Aviation Mega-

cities


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A380

120,000 revenue flights 1 million flight hours 44 million passengers carried

A take-off or landing every 5 minutesOrders/backlog August 2013

262 firm orders

20 customers

154 backlog


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A380 is the markets VLA of choice

Outselling the competition 8 to 1

As at end August 2013, Source: Airbus Orders & Deliveries, Boeing.com

Does not include VIP versions

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

A380261 orders19 airlines

747-831orders

4 airlines

11%

89%

Market share (number of orders)

747-8 A380

Cumulative net orders for passenger aircraft in airline use


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The next chapter for BA

A380 in service between LHR-LAX, TODAY!


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Demand for over 29,200 new aircraft

17,739

Newaircraft29,226

+ 3.7% per annum

Fleet in service evolution; 2013-2032

36,556

Source: Airbus

Note: Passenger aircraft 100 seats, Freighter aircraft 10 tonnes

Stay in service &Converted

Replaced

Growth

7,330

10,409

18,817

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Beginning 2013 2032


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Summary

Strong growth in passenger trafficresilient growth through a difficult,but improving economic period

Demand for over 29,000 new aircraft by 2032~28,300 passengeraircraft and nearly 900 freighter aircraft

Replacement of ageing fleets20 year demand for nearly 11,000passenger aircraft for replacement, largely in the single-aisle segment

Single-aisle aircraft represent 70% of demand in units, but wide-body aircraft represent 60% of value

VLA demand driven by aviation mega-citiesmore than 99% of alllong-haul passengers will fly to, from or through these cities by 2032


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Global Market Forecast 2013-2032Presented by: Bob LangeSVP, Market & Product Strategy


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Airbus Global Market Forecast

A 20 yearaircraft demand and passenger traffic forecast

Airlines Business Models Operations Competition Geopolitics

Trends Analysis Consumer & Travel

Surveys Tourism Migration Traffic flows Passenger demands

Governments &

Regulators Liberalization/

deregulation Investments and

constraints Geopolitics

Market Research

NetworkDevelopment

Route planning Origin and

destination demand Population centers

Traffic Economics and

Econometrics Fuel costsYields Load Factors Trade and Value of

Goods

Fleet trends Aircraft economics Utilization Fleet age and

retirements

Forecast


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Understanding the reasons for peoples journeys iskey to understanding the market

Pacific

North America

Latin America

Europe/CIS

Asia/Middle East

Africa

Origin Destination

27%of all trips are for VisitingFriends and Relatives (VFR)

Immigration flow by region

Source: UN WTO, UN DESA, Airbus


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International students further driving travel

0

1

2

3

4

1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007

The number of international students has nearly doubled since 2000

Evolution of the students studying abroad

Millions of students

Source: OECD, Airbus


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What drives the demand of the future?


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Population (billions) Urbanisation rate

World urban population to reach 5 billion by 2030

Urban population: 1.3B 2.3B 3.5B 5.0B 6.4B

51%

60%

70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

1

2

3

45

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Urban population

Rural population

Urbanisation rate

History Forecast

Source: UN Population Division, Airbus


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Global Middle Class to more than double

675 698 675

265 262 253

856

2,038

3,526

432

578

757

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2012 2022 2032

OtherAsia-PacificNorth AmericaEurope & CIS

Global Middle Class*(Millions of people)

3,576

2,228

5,211 x2.4

x4.1

World Population

% of world population

8,4007,8007,100

62%46%32%

Source: Kharas and Gertz (OECD), Airbus

* Households with daily expenditures between $10 and $100 per person (at PPP)

Month 200X


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Emerging regions will drive economic growth

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

Japan Europe NorthAmerica

Pacific CIS CentralAmerica

MiddleEast

Asia SouthAmerica

Africa PRC IndianSub

Continent

2013

2014

20-year CAGR

Source: IHS Global Insight (September 2013), Airbus

Real GDP forecast by period and region

WorldAverages

20-year CAGR

2014

2013


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Diverse emerging economies spread across the globe


Emerging economies (54 countries)All other countries (150 countries)


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Aviation shapes the world

Origin-destination passenger traffic per city, 2013 2032 growth and 2032 volume

0% 13%

Traffic growth(20-year CAGR)

25 mio120.1

Traffic volume(monthly O&D PAX)

2012 2022 2032

Source: Sabre, Airbus


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80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Emerging economies grew strongly through the crisis

Offered capacity for emerging and advanced economies (ASKs)(Base 100 in 2007)

To/from/withinemerging economies*

To/from/withinadvanced economies**

Source: OAG, Airbus* 54 emerging economies

** 31 advanced economies

+55%

Emerging ASKs

+4%

AdvancedASKs


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Long-haul traffic grows stronger than short haul traffic

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

Short haul

Long haul

* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm

Evolution of long-haul vs short-haul traffic (ASKs), 1973-2013,Index 100 = 1973 *

Source: OAG

x9.1

Long-haultraffic

x6.2

Short-haultraffic

Since 1973, Long-haul traffic has grown 1% per year faster than short-haul traffic


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Long-haul traffic consolidation

Since 1973, the amount of ASKs carried per airline has nearly quadrupled

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013

ASKs per Airline

Number of Airlines

Evolution of traffic per long-haul airline (ASKs), 1973-2013,Index 100 = 1973 *

Source: OAG, Airbus* Long haul traffic: flight distance >2,000nm

Todays Aviation Mega Cities will continue to drive a


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Todays Aviation Mega-Cities will continue to drive ahuge amount of long-haul traffic

Source: Sabre, Airbus

Passenger traffic at cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers

13/09/2013Cabin Supplier Council


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>200.000 O&D city pairs

>10.000 country pairs

>200 global trafficflows

>1.000.000O&D city pair routings

Macro traffic forecast Micro network forecast

Details behind the forecast

Airbus GMF Methodology to Seabury


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GMF 2013 new routes

The GMF 2013 has around 4,000 new airline / airport-pairs by 2032

Airbus Global Market Forecast


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Nearly 800 airlines and their subsidiaries are analyzed

82

41

30

37

100

109

19

50

3236

17

43

81

64

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

6%5%

20%

9%49%

11%

Global NetworkMajor NetworkSmall NetworkLCCRegional & AffiliateCharter

58%

8%

5%

16%

8%5%

Airlines distribution per region

Number of airlines

Installed seats in service (outside circle)Number of airlines (inside circle)

Airlines distribution per type

Page 52


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driving future demand of twin-aisle & VLA segments

Source: GMF 2013

20-year demand by category

Aircraft Demand

North America

LatinAmerica

Africa

Europe

Middle East

Asia Pacific

Worldwide DemandSingle-aisle: 20,242

Twin-aisle & VLA: 8,984

CIS

Single-aisle

Twin-aisle/VLA

W ld id d d f 29 226 i ft


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988 Aircraft

3% of 2031 WorldRPKs

1.116 Aircraft


2,307 Aircraft


2,075 Aircraft


5,847 Aircraft


5,952 Aircraft


10,941 Aircraft


29,226 Aircraft

~14 trillion RPKs in2031

Worldwide demand for 29,226 passenger aircraft

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

RPKs0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Aircraft Demand

20 Year Aircraft

Demand(Thousands)

2032 RPKs(Trillions)AfricaCISLatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaEuropeAsia-PacificWorld

Traffic bydomicile:

Asia-Pacific

Europe

North

America

MiddleEast

LatinAmerica

CISAfrica

airbus global market forecast 2013-2032 slides

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