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© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document. Presented by: JOHN LEAHY Chief Operating Officer Customers Global Market Forecast 2015-2034

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Page 1: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Presented by: JOHN LEAHY Chief Operating Officer Customers

Global Market Forecast

2015-2034

Page 2: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Global Market Forecast 2015: Highlights

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)

Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

Source: Airbus GMF2015

GMF 2015 key numbers and 20-year change

World Fleet Forecast 2014 2034 % change

2014-2034

RPK (trillions) 6.2 15.2 145%

Passenger Aircraft Fleet 17,354 35,749 106%

New passenger aircraft deliveries

31,781

Dedicated Freighters 1,633 2,687 65%

New freighter aircraft deliveries

804

Total New Aircraft Deliveries 32,585

New aircraft deliveries

- +1,227 aircraft GMF 2015 vs. GMF 2014

Page 3: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

20-year demand for 32,600 new passenger and freight aircraft

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats)

Jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

Source: Airbus GMF2015

Market Value of

-

$4.9 trillion

22,927 single-aisle aircraft

8,108 twin-aisle aircraft

1,550 very large aircraft

32,585 new aircraft

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

Page 4: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Single-aisle: 70% of units; Wide-bodies: 55% of value

Passenger aircraft (≥ 100 seats) and

jet freight aircraft (>10 tons)

Source: Airbus GMF May 2015

New Deliveries

-

32,600 GMF 2015 -2034

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

24,000

Single-aisle Twin-aisle Very Large Aircraft

1,600

8,100

22,900

70% 25% 5% % units

45% 43% 12% % value

20-year new deliveries of passenger and freighter aircraft

Page 5: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

World real GDP

World passenger traffic (ASKs)

Passenger traffic is outperforming GDP growth

% (year-over-year)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

World real GDP and passenger traffic

Source: IHS Economics, OAG, Airbus GMF2015

+5.8%

May 2015 Passenger Traffic

2015

Page 6: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

A two-speed economic world

* 54 emerging economies

** 32 advanced economies

Source: IHS Global Insight, Airbus GMF2015

Comparison of year-over-year GDP growth

Emerging economies*

Real GDP growth (%) History Forecast Emerging

economies will

continue to

lead the pack

Advanced economies**

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 2018

Page 7: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Air transport growth is highest in expanding regions

China

India

Middle East

Asia

Africa

CIS

Latin America

Eastern Europe

6.3 billion

people 2014

Western Europe

North America

Japan

Yearly RPK growth

2015 - 2034

+5.8 %

+3.8 % 1

billion people 2014 A

dvan

ced

E

me

rgin

g/

De

ve

lop

ing

Page 8: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

8,600

55%

Middle Class to grow, doubling in emerging countries…

World Population

% of world population

8,000

46%

7,200

37%

6,400

28%

Source: Oxford Economics, Airbus GMF2015 * Households with yearly income between $20,000 and $150,000 at PPP in constant 2014 prices

425 444 471 480 247 259 263 264

1,120

2,001

2,936

3,977

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2004 2014 2024 2034

History Forecast

2,703

1,792

3,671

4,721

Europe

North America

Emerging countries

Middle Class*, millions of people

Page 9: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Private consumption to become important growth driver in emerging markets

Source: IHS Economics, Airbus

GMF2015

Emerging

markets to

represent

- 43% of the

world private

consumption by

2034, up from

31% today

23% 31%

37% 43%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2014 2024 2034

Share of total world private consumption (%)

Advanced Economies

Emerging Economies

Page 10: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

0.00

0.01

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Europeans and North American are the most willing to fly…

2014 real GDP per capita (2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

Propensity to

travel

- 25% of the population of

the emerging

countries took a

trip a year in

2014

Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus

GMF2015

India

0.07 trips per capita

PRC

0.30 trips per capita

North America

1.63 trips per capita Europe

1.21 trips per capita

2014 trips per capita

Page 11: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

0.00

0.01

0.10

1.00

10.00

100.00

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

…but by 2034, PRC will reach current European levels

2014 real GDP per capita (2010 $US thousands at Purchasing Power Parity)

Propensity to

travel

- 74% of the population of

the emerging

countries will take

a trip a year in

2034

India

0.30 trips per capita

PRC

1.09 trips per capita

North America

2.16 trips per capita Europe

2.24 trips per capita

2034 trips per capita

Sources: Sabre, IHS Economics, Airbus

GMF2015

Page 12: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Air travel has proven to be resilient to external shocks

Source: ICAO, Airbus

World traffic

- 85% growth since 9/11

World annual traffic (RPKs - trillions)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014

85%

Oil Crisis Oil Crisis Gulf Crisis AsianCrisis

9/11 SARS Financial Crisis

Page 13: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 2019 2024 2029 2034

Air traffic will double in the next 15 years

Source: ICAO, Airbus GMF2015

World annual RPK* (trillion) Airbus GMF 2015 ICAO total traffic

2014-2034

4.6%

x2

Page 14: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Asia-Pacific to lead in world traffic by 2034

Source: Airbus GMF2015

RPK traffic by airline domicile (billions)

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000

Asia-Pacific

Europe

North America

Middle East

Latin America

CIS

Africa

29%

25%

25%

9%

5%

4%

3%

5.7%

3.6%

2.5%

6.7%

5.2%

4.9%

5.3%

% of 2014

world RPK

20-year

growth

36%

21%

17%

13%

6%

4%

3%

% of 2034

world RPK

2014 traffic 2015-2034 traffic

20-year world annual traffic growth

4.6%

Page 15: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Domestic PRC will be the largest O&D traffic flow

Source: Airbus GMF2015 - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800

Asia Advanced - Asia Emerging

Sub Sahara Africa - Western Europe

Middle East - USA

Australia & New Zealand - Western Europe

Central Europe - Western Europe

Indian Subcontinent - USA

Western Europe - PRC

Domestic Brazil

South America - USA

Asia Emerging - Western Europe

Western Europe - South America

PRC - USA

Indian Subcontinent - Middle East

Domestic India

Western Europe - Middle East

Domestic Asia Emerging

Western Europe - USA

Intra Western Europe

Domestic USA

Domestic PRC

2014

2034

Asia Pacific

leading growth

- 50% of the top twenty

traffic flows will

involve Asia Pacific

Annual O&D traffic per flow (billion RPK)

x 3.1

x 2.5

x 4.1

x 2.4

x 2.5 x 3.8

x 3.0

x 2.9

x 2.8

x 2.4 x 2.2

x 4.1

x 3.4 x 5.8

x 2.4

x 3.7

x 1.7 x 1.7

x 1.4 x 3.8

Page 16: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

More productive seats…

Source: OAG, Ascend, ICAO, Airbus GMF2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Avg. number of yearly offered seats per aircraft (000)

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

World passenger load factors (%)

Load factors

+17 percentage

points

2014 2014

Yearly offered seats per aircraft

+46%

Page 17: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Less fuel burn, therefore less emissions…

Source: ICAO, IATA, Airbus GMF2015

Fuel consumption

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Kilograms per 100 RPKs (avg.)

-33%

Page 18: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Short to medium term forecasts have been revised down

Source: IHS Energy, Oxford Economics

Oil prices

- Oil price down but

trend uncertain

Short-term good for

airline profitability

Medium-term boost

for global GDP

IHS Energy Forecast History

Brent oil price (US$ per bbl. in nominal 2015)

Page 19: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

70% of traffic growth until 2034 will be coming from existing network

0.0

0.3

0.6

0.9

1.2

1.5

2014 2034

Monthly Trillion RPK Growth from new routes

Growth from existing network

Source: Airbus GMF2015

Page 20: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

47 Aviation Mega-Cities in 2014

• >50 000 daily long-haul passengers

• >20 000 daily long-haul passengers

• >10 000 daily long-haul passengers

2014 Aviation Mega-Cities

47 Aviation

Mega-cities

0.9M Daily Passengers:

long-haul traffic to/

from/via Mega-

Cities

90%+ of long-haul traffic

on routes

to/from/via

47 cities

22% of World

GDP

in 2014

Source: McKinsey, UNPD, Airbus GMF2015

Page 21: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

… and 91 Mega-Cities by 2034

• >50 000 daily long-haul passengers

• >20 000 daily long-haul passengers

• >10 000 daily long-haul passengers

2034 Aviation Mega-Cities

91 Aviation

Mega-cities

2.3M Daily Passengers:

Long-Haul traffic

to/ from/via Mega-

Cities

95%+ of long-haul traffic

on routes

to/from/via

91 cities

35% of World

GDP

in 2034

Source: McKinsey, UNPD, Airbus GMF2015

Page 22: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

These airports are already largely congested

2014 Aviation Mega-Cities

Source: IATA WSG database, Airbus GMF

*Aviation Mega-Cities International

Airports

IATA WSG level 1: airport

infrastructure is adequate

IATA WSG level 2: airports with

potential for congestion

IATA WSG level 3: airports

where conditions make it

impossible to meet demand

39 out of the

47 Aviation

Mega Cities are

schedule-

constrained

today

Page 23: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

The bigger the city, the wealthier the population

GDP per capita ratio between Aviation Mega-Cities and regional average

Source: Oxford Economics, UNPD, IHS

Global Insight, Airbus GMF2015

47 Aviation

Mega-cities

+25%

North America Europe

+60% CIS

+300%

Latin America

+90%

Africa

+320%

Middle East

+160%

Asia Pacific

+290%

Page 24: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Routes between Aviation Mega-cities have more premium passengers

14%

10% 8%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

Aviation Mega-City to AviationMega-City

Aviation Mega-City <>Secondary City

Secondary City to SecondaryCity

Cities with more than 10,000 daily passengers, Long-haul, flight

distance >2,000nm, excl. domestic traffic

Source: Sabre (September 2014 data),

Airbus GMF2015

Percentage of

premium

between AMC

2014

- 14% compared to 11%

average

international long-

haul

Percentage of premium passengers on routes types

Page 25: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Stay in service

Replacement

Growth

32,600 New

aircraft

Demand for some 32,600 new passenger and freighter aircraft

Source: Airbus

Note: Passenger aircraft ≥100 seats,

Freighter aircraft ≥10 tonnes

19,000

Fleet in service evolution: 2015-2034

38,500

5,900

13,100

19,500

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Beginning 2015 2034

Page 26: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

Summary

• Strong and resilient passenger traffic growth

• Oil price down but trend uncertain

o Short-term good for airline profitability

o Medium-term boost for global GDP

• Demand for 32,600 new aircraft by 2034 – ~31,800 passenger aircraft and 800 freighters

• 13,100 passenger aircraft needed for replacement, largely single-aisle

• Single-aisle represent 70% of demand in units, but wide-bodies represent 55% of value

• VLA demand largely concentrated on Aviation Mega-cities

but network efficiencies will drive proliferation of new VLA destinations

Page 27: Global Market Forecast - Airbus

© AIRBUS all rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary document.

© AIRBUS (Airbus S.A.S., Airbus Operations S.A.S., Airbus Operations GmbH, Airbus Operations LDT, Airbus Opeartions SL, Airbus China LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Final Assembly Company LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Delivery Centre LTD). All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary

document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the

express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith.

Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof. AIRBUS, its logo, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks.

© AIRBUS (Airbus S.A.S., Airbus Operations S.A.S., Airbus Operations GmbH, Airbus Operations LDT, Airbus Opeartions SL, Airbus China LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Final Assembly Company LTD, Airbus (Tianjin) Delivery Centre LTD). All rights reserved. Confidential and proprietary

document. This document and all information contained herein is the sole property of AIRBUS. No intellectual property rights are granted by the delivery of this document or the disclosure of its content. This document shall not be reproduced or disclosed to a third party without the

express written consent of AIRBUS S.A.S. This document and its content shall not be used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied. The statements made herein do not constitute an offer. They are based on the mentioned assumptions and are expressed in good faith.

Where the supporting grounds for these statements are not shown, AIRBUS S.A.S. will be pleased to explain the basis thereof. AIRBUS, its logo, A300, A310, A318, A319, A320, A321, A330, A340, A350, A380, A400M are registered trademarks.