Eduarda Castel-Branco, ETF

Paris, 20/10/2016

GLOBAL CHALLENGES DRIVERS OF CHANGE FUTURE SKILLS NEEDS

EASTERN PARTNERSHIP

1. EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES: DIFFERENT PATHS, SOME SIMILARITIES

2. DRIVERS OF CHANGE

Geopolitical context

EU Association Agreements

Shifts in sectoral structure

Green SME

3. ENABLERS OF CHANGE

Skills: trends; reforms in education and training; demographics

4. ANTICIPATION MATTERS

Make it Match: changing paradigms, networked approaches

Frame – Skills for the future

2

STORY LINE

3

EASTERN PARTNERSHIP

4

1. DIFFERENT PATHS, SOME SIMILARITIES: GDP GROWTH

-15.0

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Azerbaijan

Armenia

Belarus

Georgia

Moldova

Russian Federation

Ukraine

Sources: World Bank

1. EDUCATION RESULTS / INDICATORS ARE STRONG IN THE REGION

Educational access is nearly universal and levels of attainment are high

VET: well established

Higher education: pays off in terms of better prospects and faster LM transitions

Over-qualification: quite pronounced (over 15%)

2. BUT STAGNATION IN JOB CREATION RESULTS IN MISSED OPPORTUNITIES

Educational investments not fully translated into productive utilisation of human capital

NEET rate (15-24): declining in last years - but high in most countries (20-30%)

Gender issues in he Labour market

5

1. TENSIONS AND OPPORTUNITIES

6

1. EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT POPULATION (2015)

high 23%

low 8% mediu

m 69%

Armenia (15-75)

high 22%

low 13% mediu

m 65%

Azerbaijan (15-64)-2013

high 44%

low 7%

medium 49%

Ukraine (15-70)

high 35%

low 4%

medium

61%

Georgia (25-64)

Sources: DB Torino process 2016

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1. A) YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (15-24) B) NEET RATE (15-24)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

AM

AZ

GE

MD

UA

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

AM

GE

MD

UA

Youth unemployment rate NEET rate

8

2. DRIVERS OF CHANGE

Geopolitical factors

Special relationship with neighbouring countries: a priority

policy EU – Treaty on European Union (Art 8)

EU Association Agreements (2014)

Georgia

Moldova

Ukraine

• Legislative approximation,

acquis

• DCFTA

• Education and training -

EQF

9

2. SECTORS MATTER: GDP BY SECTOR, VA (% OF GDP)

Agriculture 7%

Industry 37%

Services

56%

Azerbaijan

Agriculture 14%

Industry 26%

Services

60%

Ukraine

Agriculture 19%

Industry 29%

Services

52%

Armenia

Agriculture 8%

Industry

40%

Services

52%

Belarus

Agriculture 9%

Industry

25% Service

s 66%

Georgia

Agriculture

14%

Industry 18%

Services 68%

Moldova

10

2. GDP BY SECTOR, VALUE ADDED (% OF GDP)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Agriculture

Industr

y

Serv

ices

Agriculture

Industr

y

Serv

ices

Agriculture

Industr

y

Serv

ices

Agriculture

Industr

y

Serv

ices

Agriculture

Industr

y

Serv

ices

Agriculture

Industr

y

Serv

ices

Agriculture

Industr

y

Serv

ices

Azerbaijan Armenia Belarus Georgia Moldova Russian Federation Ukraine

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Disruptors!

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2. SKILL GAPS (2013)

AM AZ BY GE MD RU UA

2013 6.4 0.5 17.9 9.9 31.2 7.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Skill gap (2013)

Based: World Bank Enterprise Surveys

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3. EAP GREEN: FROM A LINEAR ECONOMY - TO A CIRCULAR ECONOMY

Natural resources Take Make Dispose…waste

From waste to resources

Production

Consumption

Waste management

- Growth and jobs creation, incl

direct jobs in waste

management sectors

- Skills in green firms, production

- Savings

http://www.slideshare.net/OECD_ENV/clipboards/promoting-better-environmental-

performance-of-smes-in-eastern-partnership-countries

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3. ENABLERS OF CHANGE

Skills trends

Reforms education & training

Skills anticipation and matching

Make it Match Network

Frame – skills for the future

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3. ENABLERS OF CHANGE

Skills trends: signals from various analyses - for

decision making, guidance and information, enterprise

HRM

STEP (World Bank)

SWTS (School-to-work transition survey. ILO)

EESE (Enabling Environment for Sustainable

Enterprises, ILO)

National surveys

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3. SKILLS TRENDS: STEP – STWS – EES ENTERPRISE

Country STEP SWTS EES Enterprises

ARM Core employability

skills:

A) College graduates:

Occup specific

technical skills

Problem solving

Teamwork

Communication

B) Higher educ graduates

Occup specific

technical skills

Teamwork

Time management

Ability to work

independently

LM transition of most young

people: long and circuitous

High unemployment among

highly educated youth

Overqualif young workers:

(21.5%) / undereduc: 11.6%

Oversupply youth labour:

professionals

Undersupply: legislators,

service workers, skilled agr

workers, elementary

occupations

Strong communication skills (26% of

companies)

Strong analytical skills (24%)

Strong interpersonal skills (18%)

Flexible “Can Do” attitude (28%)

Basic science and technology Knowl

Foreign languages Knowledge

Digital skills

Tourism training

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3. SKILLS TRENDS: STEP – EES ENTERPRISE

Country STEP EES Enterprises

GEO Core employability skills:

A) Highly skilled professionals

Occup specific technical skills

Problem solving

B) Middle-low skilled workers

Occup specific technical skills

Teamwork

Problem solving skills

Ability to work independently

Skills and attributes demanded:

Strong skills: analytical,

communication, interpersonal.

Academic achievements

Teamplayer

Flexible “Can do” attitude

Science and technology Knowledge

Digital skills

AZERB A) College graduates: leadership, openness to

experience

B) HE graduates: teamwork

Common: problem-solving; job specific skills

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3. REFORMS EDUCATION AND TRAINING

NQF: development and implementation

Bologna reforms: all 6 countries (Bel: from 2015)

Participation in EU programmes – mobility students,

researchers

VET

Work-based learning – gaining momentum

+ Engagement employers: in design / use of standards to

assessment

Torino process – reviewing change, setting priorities

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4. SKILLS ANTICIPATION - ETF POSITION PAPER: BACKGROUND CONCEPTS

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4. FORESIGHT – SHAPING THE FUTURE

A key distinction between forecast and foresight exercices is that the

latter go beyond the exploration of future scenarios by promoting

decision-making and mobilising action to shape the future and realise

these scenarios (ETF, 2014)

Foresight exercices provide a framework for stakeholders to jointly think about

future scenarios and actively shape policies to reach these scenarios.

Foresight involves stakeholders concerned with skills-related issues in a

structured and constructive way to develop a common policy vision.

In: OECD, Getting Skills Right: Assessing and Anticipating Changing Skill

Needs

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4. SKILLS ANTICIPATION AND MATCHING – ETF INITIATIVES

Make it Match Network (EaP

Platform 2 work programme)

1. Regional (multilateral

cooperation, Network)

2. Country activities

• Skills Forecast

• Employers survey

• LMIS

• LM Observatory

• Tracer study

Frame – skills for the

future: a framework for

skills foresight

- Qualitative

- Participatory

- Vision, priorities,

roadmap

- Institutional

arrangements

- Monitoring

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4. MAKE IT MATCH APPROACH

1. Skills anticipation and matching: integrated cycle of the 3 basic functions

2. Collaboration: both technical expertise and institutional processes

are at the centre to move towards an anticipation system

• Inter-institutional cooperation: networked approach for synergy (tools,

resources, outreach, effectiveness in decision making)

• Top-down and bottom-up interaction

• Involve users

• Target the products

3. Mix of approaches and methods

4. Reinforce tools and methods, robustness of data, and keep up with new

methodological developments

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4. SKILLS ANTICIPATION AND MATCHING: CHANGING PARADIGM

1. From top-down quantitative manpower planning - to identification of

emerging skills needs; of prospective occupations-skills

2. Supplement surveys’ data with qualitative in-depth analysis skills

needs

3. Angles of analysis - adapted instruments (scope, time perspective)

4. Results of anticipation – make sense, interpret with stakeholders’

involvement

5. Link to users: guidance, LM info, policy making, design training offer

and qualifications

6. Networked and collaborative approaches

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SUMMING-UP

Geopolitical factors – Russia / EU

Services, energy, manufacturing, greening

Educated workforce

But low job creation

Youth employability policies

Skills anticipation and matching mechanisms and capabilities

– becoming part of decision-making

Involvement of stakeholders from the world of work –

improving

THANK YOU