Bill Rowley, M.D.

Institute for Alternative Futures

Drivers of Change: Opportunities & Challenges for

Quarantine StationsJanuary 20, 2005

2

How Fast is the How Fast is the World Changing?World Changing?

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On a scale of 1 to 5:On a scale of 1 to 5:1 = Minimal amount of orderly 1 = Minimal amount of orderly

changechange

5 = An incredible amount of 5 = An incredible amount of unpredictable change and unpredictable change and instabilityinstability

How Fast is the World Changing? How Fast is the World Changing?

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Ten years of surprisesTen years of surprises

5

Ten years of surprisesTen years of surprises

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A taleA tale……

X=8.6 Billion

1 2 4 8 16 32 12864

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The Power of Doubling The Power of Doubling

10 20 30 330

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40Billions of Grains of Rice

Doublings

33 doublings of computer performance

2008

35

Billions of Times Faster

X8 billion times faster

34 billion times faster X

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Rapid Technological Advances Rapid Technological Advances

10 20 30 40 50 600

1

2

3

4

5X1018

Doublings

9,223,372,036,854,775,808 grains

Forecast 2020: Home PC with

computing power of human brain2004

Forecast for 2050: ? X

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Rapid Technological Advances Rapid Technological Advances

BiotechnologyBiotechnologyInformation TechnologiesInformation Technologies

Materials & NanotechnologyMaterials & NanotechnologyPhysics & mathematicsPhysics & mathematics

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How Fast is the World Changing?How Fast is the World Changing?

Doubling Time

Societal Change Decades

Organizational Change 20 yrs?

Computing Power 1.5 yrs

Computer Applications 10 yrs

Human Nature Eons

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Why look at the future?Why look at the future?

Successful futurists don’t predict the future. They interpret the present in a new way that makes more sense, the farther one looks into the future. Peter Schwartz

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Big Drivers of ChangeBig Drivers of Change

Global economyGlobal economyNew disease threatsNew disease threatsAdvances in biotechnologyAdvances in biotechnologyAdvances in informationAdvances in informationAdvances in educationAdvances in educationAdvances in management & Advances in management & changing roleschanging roles

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Global Global EconomyEconomy

Interconnected, Interconnected, interdependent and interdependent and

acceleratedaccelerated

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World Economic GrowthWorld Economic Growth

19

50

19

60

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

World TradeWorld GDP

Source: Vital Signs 2000, Worldwatch Institute; Updated data – World Bank 2004

Trill

ion

s of

Dol

lars

Free flowing global movement of money

$3 Trillion Daily

Free flowing global movement Free flowing global movement of money of money

$3 Trillion Daily$3 Trillion Daily

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ShippingShipping

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Trends in Air TravelTrends in Air Travel

Total 641 million 1058 million

Projected Air Travel Passengers in US:2003 2015

International 117 million 213 million

Source: FAA Forecast Fact Sheet, Fiscal Years 2004-2015

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Migration & ImmigrationMigration & Immigration

8.5 million illegal aliens in US 8.5 million illegal aliens in US -- ↑↑ 500K/yr500K/yr150 million labor migrants worldwide150 million labor migrants worldwide500,000 seek asylum per year globally500,000 seek asylum per year globally10.4 million refugees globally10.4 million refugees globally

Sources: Migration Policy Institute, Immigration and Naturalization Service

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Global DiseasesGlobal Diseases

1980 1985 1990 1995 20000

10

20

30

40

Mill

ions

Number of People Living With HIV/AIDS

20 Million more have died

20% of Adults in Sub-Saharan Africa infected

Sub-Saharan Africa World Total

Global AIDS Epidemic

Mad Cow Disease

1/3 World’s People Carry TB

500,000,000 Infected With Malaria

SARSSARS

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Global Disease Threats?Global Disease Threats?

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Global Disease Threats?Global Disease Threats?

Bioterrorism?Bioterrorism?

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Advances in Advances in BiotechnologyBiotechnology

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BiotechnologyBiotechnology

Understanding at cellular levelUnderstanding at cellular level

Genes

Proteins

Disease Targeted Drug Therapy

Gene Therapy

Pharmacogenomics

PreventionDiagnostics

Stem Cell Therapy

Underlying Basic Biologic

Defect

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BiotechnologyBiotechnology

Understanding at cellular levelUnderstanding at cellular level

Genes

Proteins

Disease

25,00025,000

300,000300,000

100 100 Trillion Trillion CellsCells

DNA is not destiny

Understanding systems biology used to engineer a super responsive immune system to enhance

resistance and resiliency

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BiotechnologyBiotechnology

Understanding at cellular levelUnderstanding at cellular level

Therapy individualized Therapy individualized to the unique to the unique

characteristics of the characteristics of the patientpatient’’s diseases disease

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BiotechnologyBiotechnology

PharmacogenomicsPharmacogenomicsPhysician prescribes Physician prescribes codeine based on codeine based on symptomssymptomsBut, it doesnBut, it doesn’’t work!t work!

Genome Screening

Individualize Therapy

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BiotechnologyBiotechnology

BiomonitoringBiomonitoring

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BiotechnologyBiotechnology

BiomonitoringBiomonitoring

Smart Dust Immunosensor

Integrated Microfluidic Circuit Chip

Nano-needle Probing Cell

Smart Dust Mote

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Patients Play Bigger RolePatients Play Bigger Role

Tele-conference

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Information TechnologiesInformation TechnologiesSmart Home

Please remember to take your medicine

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Advances in Advances in Information Information TechnologyTechnology

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Information TechnologiesInformation Technologies

Electronic Health Record

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Information TechnologiesInformation Technologies

Pervasive Computing

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Accessing KnowledgeAccessing Knowledge

Natural language processingNatural language processingArtificial intelligenceArtificial intelligenceData mining system Data mining system –– ““Deep WebDeep Web””Grid computingGrid computing

Tools to organize, search & Tools to organize, search & integrate large bodies of dataintegrate large bodies of data

Open source researchOpen source research

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Advances in Advances in EducationEducation

35

Customization of LearningCustomization of Learning

36

Advances in Advances in Collaborative Collaborative ManagementManagement

37

CollaborationsCollaborations

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Questions for the FutureQuestions for the Future

How might arriving international How might arriving international travelers be screened? Where/When?travelers be screened? Where/When?

How might vessels be inspected?How might vessels be inspected?

How might a surveillance system How might a surveillance system monitor for onset of epidemics?monitor for onset of epidemics?

How might diverse organizations How might diverse organizations work collaboratively?work collaboratively?

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Questions for the FutureQuestions for the Future

What new skill sets might be What new skill sets might be required?required?

How might isolation and quarantine How might isolation and quarantine be done? be done?

How might the role of QS evolve?How might the role of QS evolve?

How might education and just in time How might education and just in time training be provided?training be provided?

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Why think about the future?Why think about the future?

Your view of the future affects your perceptions and goals,

which affect your actions today.

Your actions today shape your future!

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For More Information Contact:For More Information Contact:

Think Think Outside the Outside the

BoxBox

Institute for Alternative Futures Institute for Alternative Futures

100 N. Pitt St., Suite 235100 N. Pitt St., Suite 235

Alexandria, VA 22314Alexandria, VA 22314

703703--684684--58805880

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