FY 2014 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts

Changes to FY 2014 Forecasts Exports $6.9 billion to $149.5 billion Imports $0.5 billion to $110.5 billion Surplus $6.4 billion to $39.0 billion

USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”Released on May 29, 3:00 PM EST

Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS

U.S. Agricultural Trade

'92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 12 13 14(f)

0102030405060708090

100110120130140150

Billi

on $

39.0

Exports

Imports

Trade Surplus

Records

137.4

110.5

42.9

149.5

Grains and Feeds

Oilseeds Livestock, Poultry, and

Dairy

Cotton Horticultural Products

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40 FY 2014 Forecasts

Bill

ion

$

Febr

uary

May

+$4.5 Billion +$0.6 Billion -$0.4 Billion

May vs. February Commodity Forecasts Large gains in grains and oilseeds; slight reduction in

horticultural products

+$2.4 Billion

No change

Record volume for soybeans and feeds; Corn volume rebounds

2011 2012 2013 2014f0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Overall volume up 31% from FY13

Other*

Soybeans

Feeds

Wheat

Coarse Grains

Mill

ion

Tons

170 mmt 166 mmt

*Includes cotton, rice, soybean meal, soybean oil, beef & veal, pork, beef and pork variety meats, broiler meat, and tobacco

146 mmt

130 mmt

Record Forecast for Livestock, Poultry, and Dairy

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014f0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Overall Forecast up $0.7 Billion from FY 2013

Other

Dairy

Beef & veal

Hides & skins

Bill

ion

$ Dairy, beef, and hides & skins each hit historical highs

Top 10 U.S. Markets in FY2014

Philippines

Indonesia

Taiwan

HK

S. Korea

EU

Japan

Mexico

Canada

China

0 10 20 30Billion $

Record

Half of top markets forecast to hit records

Soybeans and Feeds Drive Higher U.S. Exports to China

Oct-Mar FY13 Oct-Mar FY140

7

14

21

U.S. Exports to China In First Half of Fiscal Year

Other

Feeds & fodders

Grains

Meat & poultry

Cotton

Soybeans

Bill

ion

$

$11.7 B $14.1 B

Exports Up to China, SE Asia, EU, & S. America

Change in FY 2014 Exports from February Forecast

+$1.5 bil

+$3.5 bil

+$900 mil

+$900 mil

-$200 mil +$200 mil

+$200 mil

Total $0.5 billion at a record of 110.5 billion

Tropical Products $1.0 billion – lower prices for coffee and rubber

Horticultural Products $0.2 billion – lower volume of wine

Grain and Oilseeds $1.7 billion – record wheat and soybean imports

Livestock & Dairy $0.1 billion – higher swine, beef, and pork imports

Other Imports $0.1 billion – mainly tobacco and planting seeds

FY 2014 Imports

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $35.8 Billion $4.5 Billion

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

'11

'12

'13

'14f

13

17

21

25

29

33

37

41Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Feb Forecast

May Forecast

2014 Key Developments

Corn volume up sharply on rising global demand and less competition from ArgentinaWheat prices up on tight supplies and deteriorating crop conditionsDDGS and sorghum up on record demand from China

Wild CardsTiming of South American corn shipmentsNorthern Hemisphere winter wheat harvestsWheat export policies in India and Argentina

Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $33.8 Billion $2.4 Billion

Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

2014Key DevelopmentsSoybean volume rises on record sales to China Soybean meal volume up on stronger demand Strong demand and tight U.S. supplies boost soybean complex prices

Wild CardsArgentina export activity

'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09 10 11 12 13f

14f

9

14

19

24

29

34

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Feb Forecast

May Forecast

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $32.2 Billion $600 Million

Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry

2014Key Developments

Dairy higher on strong global demand Beef up mostly on unit values due to robust global demand Poultry down on lower egg and egg product shipments Pork edges lower on tighter exportable supplies

Wild Cards PED impact Ongoing SPS trade issues

'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10'11'12'13f

'14f

10

14

18

22

26

30

34

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Feb Forecast

May Forecast

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $4.4 Billion

Unchanged

Export Outlook for Cotton

2014Key Developments China demand slows Prices remain strong

Wild Cards Additional changes in China’s reserve policy Cotton yarn demand in China

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

10 11 12 13f

14f

0

2

4

6

8

10Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Feb Forecast

May Forecast

Revised FY 2014 Forecast: $34.1 Billion Down $400 million

Export Outlook for Horticulture Products

2014Key Developments Tree nut growth lower as rising prices weaken Chinese demand Fresh fruit and vegetables down on lower volumes to Canada and Korea

Wild Card California Drought

'02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 11 12 13 14f

10

15

20

25

30

35

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Feb Forecast

May Forecast

Record