FY 2015 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts

Changes to FY 2015 Forecasts Exports $2.0 billion to $141.5 billion Imports $3.0 billion to $119.0 billionSurplus $5.0 billion to $22.5 billion

Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS

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Exports

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Trade Surplus

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$109.2

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FY 2015 export forecast falls with lower expected high-value product exports

$141.5

$119

U.S. Agricultural Trade

Total Exports $2.0 billion but still second highest level in history

Grain and Feed Unchanged– Higher volumes and values of coarse grains (especially sorghum) offset lower wheat and rice volumes

Cotton Unchanged– higher export volumes as the U.S. captures more of world trade, but lower unit values due to lower global consumption

Oilseeds and Products $1.2 billion – Record pace of U.S. soybean and soybean meal shipments

Horticultural Products $1.0 billion – lower than expected fruit and vegetable shipments, as well as slowing tree nut demand in China and Europe

Livestock & Dairy $1.9 billion – weaker demand for U.S. beef, pork and poultry and stronger dollar reduces competitiveness. Also pork and poultry unit values and volumes are up. Dairy products are also down on weak prices.

Exports are forecast at $141.5– down $2.0 billion from the November forecast

FY 2015 November to February Export Forecast Changes

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Overall Forecast down $11.0 Billion from FY 2014

Bulk High Value

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High Value Exports to Fall for First Time Since 2009

U.S. Bulk Export Volume at Record in 1st Qtr of FY 2015But Value Falls

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Exports Revised Down to Asia, Europe, AfricaChange in FY 2015 Exports from November Forecast

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Imports $3.0 billion to a record of $119 billion

Livestock & Dairy $1.0 billion –beef imports continue to surge, as well as dairy

Oilseeds and Products $400 million –greater import demand for certain vegetable oils

Sugar & Tropical Products $1.3 billion – growth due especially to coffee beans, as well as cocoa and cocoa products

Horticultural Products $500 million – greater than expected imports of fresh fruit (especially bananas, avocados and grapes) and fresh vegetables (such as tomatoes and peppers)

Imports are forecast at a record $119 billion – up $3.0 billion from the November forecast and nearly $10 billion above FY 2014

FY 2015 November to February Import Forecast Changes

Revised FY 2015 Forecast: $29.9 Billion Unchanged

Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

2015Key DevelopmentsSorghum higher on Chinese purchases Corn up slightly Wheat volume down on intense competition- more than offsetting slightly higher unit value.

Wild CardsChina’s dominance of sorghum trade2015/16 Northern Hemisphere wheat productionWheat export policies in Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine

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41Export Value ($Bil)

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Nov 15 Forecast

Feb 15 Projection

Revised FY 2015 Forecast: $30.9 Billion $1.2 Billion

Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

2015Key Developments Soybean value rises on record sales pace and higher prices Soybean and soybean meal volumes at record levels Soybean oil value falls on reduced volume and value forecast Lower volumes and unit values for other oilseeds reduce overall gains

Wild Cards China soybean demand Brazil soybean harvest Exchange rates Argentine crush and soybean meal exports

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Export Value ($Bil)

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Nov 15 Forecast

Feb 15 Projection

Revised FY 2015 Forecast: $3.7 Billion Unchanged

Export Outlook for Cotton

2015Key Developments Lower world pricesFalling export unit value offsets higher volume

Wild Cards India support program Cotton yarn demand in ChinaPolyester prices in China

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Export Value ($Bil)

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Nov 15 Forecast

Feb 15 Projection

Revised FY 2015 Forecast: $31.8 Billion $1.9 Billion

Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry

2015Key Developments Beef and pork down on weak demand due to a strong dollar Poultry down on weak demand due to HPAI-related trade restrictions Dairy reduced on increased global competition

Wild Cards Ongoing SPS trade issues

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Export Value ($Bil)

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Feb 15 Forecast

Revised FY 2015 Forecast: $36.0 Billion $1.0 Billion

Export Outlook for Horticulture Products

2015Key Developments Weak fresh fruit exports to Canada, Japan and Hong Kong as well as vegetable exports to Mexico Reduced dried fruit exports to Europe Lower tree nut demand from Europe and China

Wild Card West coast port labor dispute

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