FY 2013 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts

Changes to FY 2013 Forecasts Exports $1.5 billion to $145 billion Imports $2.0 billion to $115 billion Surplus $3.5 billion to $30 billion

Final Changes For 2012 Exports $0.7 billion to $135.8 billionImports $3.1 billion to $103.4 billionSurplus $2.4 billion to $32.4 billion

USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”Released on November 29, 4:00 pm EST

Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS

U.S. Agricultural Trade

'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12f

'13f

$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90

$100$110$120$130$140$150

Bil

lion

$

30

Exports

ImportsTrade Surplus

Records

137.4

145

115

103.4

32.4 42.5

Soybean exports surge on higher volumes and prices while corn exports fall

135.8

Grains and Feeds

Oilseeds Livestock and Poultry

Cotton Horticultural Products

0

10

20

30

40 FY 2013 Forecasts

Bill

ion

Do

llars

Au

gu

st

No

vem

ber

-$1.9 Billion

-$0.1 Billion

-$0.2 Billion

No Change

November vs. August Commodity Forecasts Higher soybeans exports outweigh lower grain and cotton

+$3.3 Billion

Grains and Feeds

Oilseeds Livestock and Poultry

Cotton Horticultural Products

0

10

20

30

40 FY 2012 Exports vs. 2013 Forecast

Bill

ion

Do

llars

FY

201

2

FY

201

3+$3.7 Billion

No Change

-$2.0 Billion

+$3.4 billion

November FY 2013 Forecast vs. FY 2012 Exports Higher Grains, Oilseeds, and Hort. Products Lead to Record Forecast

+$2.8 Billion

Bulk Exports Rebound While High Value Products Continue to Climb

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)0

20

40

60

80

100

Overall Forecast Up $9 Billion from FY 2012

Bulk High Value

Bill

ion

$

$ 50

Bill

ion

$ 54

Bill

ion

$ 86

Bill

ion

$ 91

Bill

ion

Export Volume Continues to Fall

2011 2012 2013(f)0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Volume Drops16 Percent Since 2011

Other

Soybeans

Feeds

Wheat

Coarse Grains

Mill

ion

Ton

s

166 mmt

*Includes cotton, rice, soybean meal, soybean oil, beef & veal, pork, beef and pork variety meats, broiler meat, and tobacco

146 mmt 140 mmt

China Remains Top Market

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (f)0

5

10

15

20

25U.S. Agricultural Exports to Canada, China, & Mexico

Bill

ion

Dol

lars

ChinaMexico

Canada

Second Largest Exports Ever Forecast to China

2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

U.S. Exports to China By Product

Other

Grains

Meats & Products

Cotton

Oilseeds

Bill

ion

$

Exports Up to China and S.E. AsiaChange in FY 2013 Exports from August Forecast

-$200 mil

+$200 mil

$700 mil +$200 mil

+$500 mil

+$200 mil

Revised FY 2013 Forecast: $37.1 billion $1.9 billion

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

'10

11 12 13f

13

17

21

25

29

33

37

41Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug 13 Forecast

Nov 13 Forecast

2013 Key Developments

Wheat volume down slightly–competition from India, Russia, and Ukraine. Wheat value down on lower prices but still high historically. Corn volume and value down on strong competition from Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine

Wild CardsSouth American crop Southern Hemisphere winter wheat crops

Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

Revised FY 2013 Forecast: $31.4 Billion $3.3 Billion

Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

2013Key DevelopmentsSoybean production exceeds earlier expectationsStrong China soybean demand to continueLess competition from South AmericaRecord soybean and soybean meal prices

Wild Cards China’s soybean import demand Prospects and timing of South American harvest

9

13

17

21

25

29

33

01 '03 '05 '07 '09 11 13f

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

August Forecast

November Forecast

Revised FY 2013 Forecast: $4.6 Billion, $200 million

Export Outlook for Cotton

2013 Key Developments Lower volume expected, primarily due to reduced import demand in China

Wild Cards China reserve policy India export policy

'01

'02

'03

'04

'05

'06

'07

'08

'09

10 11 12 13f

0

2

4

6

8

10Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug Forecast

Nov Projection

Revised FY 2013Forecast: $29.8 Billion $100 Million

Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry

2013Key DevelopmentsBeef down slightly as lower volumes offset marginally higher prices. Poultry down due to lower unit values and volumes for turkey meat and offals. Dairy up as higher global prices offset lower volumes.Pork is raised slightly on higher unit values.

Wild Cards Changes in BSE protocols Ongoing SPS trade issuesChinese demand for diary and pork

'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10 11 12 13f

10

14

18

22

26

30

34

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug 13 Forecast

Nov 13 Forecast

Revised FY 2013 Forecast: $32.0 Billion Unchanged

Export Outlook for Horticulture Products

2013Key Developments Long-term growth trend continues Strong exports to Canada, EU, and Japan Tree nut exports higher due primarily to China’s demand for almonds, pistachios and walnuts

2012Key Developments Continued Chinese demand for tree nuts

'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 11 '12f

13f

10

15

20

25

30

35

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug 13 Forecast

Nov 13 Forecast

Record

Imports $2 billion but remain at a record of 115 billion

Tropical Products $1.7 billion – lower prices for sugar, coffee beans, and natural rubber resulting from the economic downturn in the EU and China.

Horticultural Products $900 million – slow pace of processed fruit and vegetable imports in recent months expected to continue

Grain and Oilseeds $1.0 billion –strong U.S. demand for imported corn

Livestock & Dairy $100 million – lower beef and pork imports expected.

Imports are forecast at a record $115 billion – down $2 billion from the Nov. forecast

FY 2013 Imports