FY 2011 & 2012 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts

Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS

Initial FY 2012 ForecastsExports = $137 billionImports = $105 billionSurplus =$32 billion

USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”Released on August 31, 4:00 pm EST

Changes Since May in 2011 ForecastExports no change at $137.0 billionImports $1.5 billion to $94.5 billionSurplus $1.5 billion to $42.5 billion

U.S. Agricultural Trade

$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90

$100$110$120$130$140

'90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12f

Billi

on $

Exports

ImportsTrade Surplus

Bulk export volume drops but prices remain firm with FY 2012 even at $137 billion while surplus falls to $32 billion on strong imports

Records

94.5

114.9

30

137

105

42.5

32

137

79

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

U.S. Agricultural Exports by MonthRecord October-June Exports Led by Wheat and Cotton

FY 09FY 07 FY 08

FY 10

$Billion

$82 billion

$96 billion$115 billion

$108.6

FY 11

$137

Exports Fall Since March

$8

$9

$10

$11

$12

$13

$14

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept

$ B

illion

Recorded Exports and Projected Pace To Meet $137 Billion Forecast For 2011

Actual FY 2011 Exports

Minimum Needed in Remaining Months to Meet Current Forecast

Shipments decline but are still on track to meet forecast

FY 2012 Exports Lower volumes of cotton, soybean, and wheat offset strong prices and greater horticultural product exports in FY 2012

Grains, Oilseeds & CottonWheat, Coarse Grains & Rice – higher

prices for corn and feeds outweigh lower wheat volume

Soybeans – tighter U.S. supplies and greater export competition

Cotton – smaller domestic crop and increased global supplies

Livestock & Horticultural ProductsLivestock & Products – Growth in pork,

poultry and animal by products slightly outweighs lower dairy and beef exports

Horticultural Products – up on greater demand from Canada, Japan, and EU

0

10

20

30

40

Grains and Feeds

Oilseeds Livestock and Poultry

Cotton Hort

Bill

ion

Do

llars

Export Value Even Year to Year

2%

-3% 1%

-27%

12%

FY 2

011

FY 2

012

Exports to Middle East and N. Africa Fall in FY 2012Total exports in FY 2012 forecast even with FY 2011

-$500

-$300

+$500 +$500

-$500 -$500 +$500

Revised FY 2011 Forecast: $38.4 Billion $400 Million

Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products

Export Value ($Bil)

13

17

21

25

29

33

37

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 12f

ActualAug 2011 ForecastAug 2012 Forecast

Includes corn gluten feed/meal2012 Key DevelopmentsWheat volume down –competition from Russia and UkraineCorn value up on tight U.S. suppliesDDGs are up on higher value

Wild CardsChina’s need for corn importsU.S. corn crop Global feed demand in the face of high prices

2011 Key DevelopmentsWeaker exports of corn and rice

Initial FY 2012 Forecast: $39.0 Billion

Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products

91113151719212325272931

'02 '04 '06 '08 10 12f

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

Aug 11 Forecast

Aug 12 Projection

Excludes corn gluten feed/meal

Revised FY 2011 Estimate: $29.3 Billion $0.9 BillionInitial FY 2012 Forecast: $28.3 Billion

2012Key DevelopmentsSoybean export volume drops as yield reductions cut production estimate.Rising biodiesel production and reduced crush halves soybean oil export volume.Reduced export volumes more than offset higher unit values.

Wild Cards U.S. crop prospects China’s soybean import demand

2011Key Developments Slow China sales pace reduces soybean export volume.

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 10 12f

Export Value ($Bil)

Actual

May 11 Forecast

Aug 11 Projection

Export Outlook for CottonRevised FY 2011 Estimate: $9.0 Billion Unchanged Initial FY 2012 Forecast: $6.6 Billion

2012 Key Developments Export volume down due to lower production and stronger competition Unit values are lower on greater global supplies

Wild Cards U.S./foreign crops Textile demand

2011Key Developments Slightly lower volume offsets higher unit values

Record

Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock & PoultryInitial FY 2012 Forecast: $27.1 BillionRevised FY 2011 Estimate: $26.9 Billion $400 Million2012Key Developments Pork higher on strong Asian demand (South Korea, China, and Japan) Poultry virtually unchanged as slightly higher prices offset reduced volumes Beef down on lower volumes due to tight supplies Dairy down due to lower prices

Wild Cards Changes in BSE protocols Ongoing SPS trade issues

2011Key Developments Higher volumes and values across the meat sector

Export Value ($Bil)

10121416182022242628

'00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12f

Actual

Aug 11 Forecast

Aug 12 Forecast

Export Outlook for Horticultural ProductsRevised FY 2011 Estimate: $25.5 Billion $500 MillionInitial FY 2012 Forecast: $28.0 Billion

Export Value ($Bil)

1012141618202224262830

'99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11f

ActualAug 11 ForecastAug 12 Projection

Record

2012Key Developments Long-term growth trend continues Strong exports to Canada, EU, and Japan Tree nut exports higher due primarily to China’s demand for almonds, pistachios and walnuts

Wild Cards Economic uncertainty in key markets

2011Key Developments Stronger Chinese demand for tree nuts

FY 2012 Imports Imports are forecast up 11 percent from 2011 on high prices for tropical and horticultural products and greater meat volumes

Imports $10.5 billion to a record $105.5 billion

Tropical Products $2.7 billion – strong prices for sugar, coffee beans, and cocoa

Horticultural Products $4.5 billion – higher processed fruit , fresh fruit, juices, and wine

Grain and Oilseeds $2.1 billion – stronger veg. oils, grain products, and feeds

Livestock, Dairy, & Poultry $1.0 billion – Greater demand due to improving economy and tight domestic suppliers