future foundation may 2013 conference highlights

Where The Truth Lies

Future Foundation nVision client conference

Presentation Highlights

May 2013

Smart Trends

Top Five Themes for the Short Term

Barry Clark, Account Director

May 2013

3

Less resource to protect consumers


Source: National Audit Office Source: Which? Press release, 11th April 2012

Enforcement

Spend

2012

“...a shockingly ill-conceived and under-

resourced plan from Government that looks

set to vandalise a system of consumer

protection that is admired worldwide...”

Peter Vicary-Smith, CEO, Which?

£247m

Enforcement

Spend

2014 £140m

4

Why are we talking about this in 2013?


Source: Population Projections, National Statistics/nVision, UK, 2012

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Age

Individuals

2012

5

Annuity horibilis


Income Gilt yields

2008 £6,435 4.51%

2013 £4,836 2.47%

Source: This Is Money, 2013 / Male aged 65 £100,000 purchase, guaranteed 5 years and level payments

6

Gen Y4G: Risky Business?


Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013

2009

43%

2013

53%

“I am prepared to take significant

risks to have what I want...”

7

Having a drink in the last week


Source: ONS General Lifestyle Survey overview , March 2013 (based on 2011 survey)

2005 Men

Women

2011 Men

Women

72%

66%

57%

54%

8

Increasingly short measures


Source: ONS General Lifestyle Survey overview , March 2013 (based on 2011 survey)

2005 Men

Women

2011 Men

Women

Heavy drinking

(8 units + single day)

72%

66%

57%

54%

23%

18%

15%

12%

9

What drives sobriety?



I am too fat

I spend too much

I drink too much

1 in 5 men

2 in 5 1 in 3

Brainstorms at bedtime

Katie Toll, Head of Research

May 2013

11

Bedtime is being redefined


Source: The Future Foundation/Tablet Consortium | Base: 2,400 tablet owners aged 16+, GB, 2013

61% Use a tablet

in the bedroom

87% 16-24s

“iPlayer usage, for streaming, peaks about

10pm – just a little later from TV. But

interestingly, iPlayer on the iPhone peaks

at about midnight. So people are clearly

going to bed with their iPhone and

watching in bed.”

Anthony Rose, Former Head of BBC iPlayer

12

Surge in usage of devices at bedtime


Source: The Future Foundation/Tablet Consortium | Base: 1,960 tablet and smartphone owners aged 16+, GB, 2013

At which times of day do you

generally use the following devices?

22.00

onwards

16.00-18.00

14.00-16.00

12.00-14.00 9.00-12.00

7.00-9.00

14.1%

19.2%

33.0%

37.6%

46.8%

55.9%

49.7%

64.1%

37.9%

41.6%

51.8%

43.0%

38.1%

33.2%

52.1%

27.3%

26.9%

27.2%

57.4%

25.6%

30.7%

28.9%

55.6%

22.3%

17.1%

15.6%

61.5%

24.9%

18.00-22.00

13

Reality of the work-life merge


Source: Labour Market Statistics, National Statistics/nVision | Base: all aged 16+, UK, 2012

Q4 1992: 38.1

Q4 2012: 37.3

Average full-time

working hours

“It’s now 9.30pm and I am working

on my computer, simply because it

fits in better with my daily

schedule and gives me a lot more

flexibility. I don’t think I actually

do more work, simply I can do it

when it pleases me or I feel like it”

Female, 67, Spain

14

Constant connectivity


Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012 Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013

Tablet owner

Non-tablet owner

Check work emails in bed

Check personal emails in bed

17%

7%

30%

18%

Browse the internet in bed

32%

18%

68% of UK 25-34s never turn their mobile phone off

“Technology has definitely resulted in people doing more work in their

free time, for example I check emails on the bus on the way to work in

order to have some of them cleared by the time I get to the office.”

Female, 27, London, UK

15

Brainstorms at Bedtime – Final thoughts


We feel we work longer hours and are under increased time pressure.

Increasingly we feel a self-imposed obligation to respond immediately to

email / digital communications – both work and social.

Social norm:

Working hours and time pressure remained constant over past decade.

We are struggling to work out how to manage the work-life merge and

when we’re supposed to do what.

Reality:

Find ways to manage constant connectivity.

Choose when to engage actively v passively with technology.

Find the perfect blend of work and personal life.

Resolution:

The Power of Quiet

Meabh Quoirin, Managing Director

May 2013

17

% agree or agree strongly | 2013

“Sometimes I feel the need to get away from phone calls, emails and text messages and switch off”

The Power of Quiet

Source: nVision Research | Base: 2,200 - 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013

60%

Baby boomers

58%

Gen Y

60%

Gen X

65%

Difference

Gender

1%

Wealth

0.5%

Rural vs. Inner city

2%

Networked

1%

18

“I often need to switch off completely/escape...”

The Power of Quiet


Check work emails in bed

53% 63% 64% 64%

Never Occasionally Regularly Every day

“Silence is definitely seen as hip and trendy, but only because busy people ‘need’ it.”

Female, 23

19

Crave escape

Quiet production

The Power of Quiet

65% Strongly

56% Moderately

34% Never

Need a hobby I love

Crave escape

Be the

best

66%

Be more

creative

73%

Find more

excitement

73%

Strong

need to...

20

The Power of Quiet – Final thoughts

The Power of Quiet

Quiet is critical. In increasing demand to balance our busy lives.

It’s aspirational, associated with luxury and in short supply.

Social norm:

It’s a fundamental demand for everyone.

It’s not needed because we’re doing too much.

We want it so that we can do more. Different things.

Reality:

We can have it all. Just not like the 90s.

Use it as a route to self-improvement & better performance.

Quiet is fashionable. And it’s here to stay.

Resolution:

.THNG

Kerry Rheinstein, Account Director

May 2013

22 .THNG

Cisco 2012 The Internet of Things

2003 2010 2015 2020

500 million connected

devices

6.3 billion people 7.6 billion

people

50 billion connected

devices

23

Saving time with technology

.THNG

Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000 -2,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012

12

6

3 9

Total

population

47%

24

Interested in networked service (smart fridge, self-parking car)

.THNG

Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000 -2,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012

101010101101011010 101010001001011010 1010101001001111010

1101010101011010010010 101010101101011010 101010001001011010 1010101001001111010

Total Population

55%

25

.THNG – Final thoughts

.THNG

Technology can sometimes create unnecessary complexity

We believe we understand the potential of .THNG, turning dumb

devices smart

Social norm:

But, we are actually only beginning to grasp the potential of .THNG

Networked devices have the potential to be life game changers

Reality:

Companies will have to understand and utilise the potential => invitation

for innovation

Technology hold the answers? More on this during the nVitro scan

Resolution:

Forecasting for the medium term

Britain: a rag doll forever tossed by global forces?

Richard Nicholls, Editor, nVision

May 2013

27

Sideways (ish)


Source: Oxford Economics/nVision, UK, 2013

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Real GDP, indexed to

pre-recession maximum

28

Inflation is too high and earnings growth is too low


Source: National Statistics/nVision 2013

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Earnings growth (nominal)

Inflation (CPI)

29

Where the inflation lies


Source: Oxford Economics/nVision, 2013

11%

17%

20%

30%

12%

-8%

10%

13%

17%

27%

32%

46%

30%

12%

45%

52%

Total

Transport

Alcoholic drinks & tobacco

Electricity, gas, fuel

Food and non-alc. drinks

Communications

Education

Insurance

UK Eurozone

Total increase in price level, 2007 to

2012, selected categories

30

Corporate Reawakening – a medium term driver?



2007 10.9%

2008 -0.2%

2009 -14.4%

2010 -0.4%

2011 3.1%

2012 4.2%

2013 3.6%

2014 5.2%

2015 6.9%

2016 7.0%

2017 6.3%

2018 3.9% 2019

2.7% 2020 2.6%

% growth in real private

sector investment

31

The Productivity Puzzle



Why is unemployment so moderate and

GDP performance so weak?

Not due to labour hoarding - job

creation has been high.

Neither is it explained by economic

inactivity / part-time work.

Fall in real wages is a factor.

Misallocation of capital is another.

There could be under-reporting of GDP.

In some sectors (construction, transport)

industry surveys are more positive than

official statistics.

Upward revisions to GDP data are

possible.

32

7%

8%

8%

8%

10%

11%

12%

14%

16%

25%

Total

Hotels and accommodation

Purchase of vehicles

Food

Non-electronic major durables

Household appliances

Communications

Misc. recreational goods

Clothing and footwear

Computers, cameras, etc.

Spending growth



Spending

growth

forecast

2016 vs. 2013,

in constant prices

33

The regional picture


Source: National Statistics/nVision, 2013

67%

72%

66%

75%

69% 75%

70%

70%

71%

71%

75%

70%

Employment rate

All aged 16-64

34

Other distributional patterns


Income distribution:

It is hard for spending cuts to avoid

hitting the poorer harder.

Some high-skilled sectors likely to see

growth (high-tech, professional services).

Age distribution:

The young face special pressures : high

unemployment, education fees, high

house prices, rising rents...

...and many need to turn to their Boomer-

generation parents for greater support.

Older generation: high wealth vs. weak

annuities.

35

An export-led recovery... but it didn’t last



2008 1%

2009 -8%

2010 6%

2011 5%

2012 -0.2%

2013 -0.3%

2014 3%

2015 4%

2016 5%

Growth in exports in real terms

36

Central forecasts



2013 2014 2015 2016

GDP growth 0.9% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8%

Consumer spending growth 1.2% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%

Inflation 2.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6%

Unemployment rate 8.1% 8.2% 7.9% 7.4%

In the short term: a slow consumer recovery.

In the medium term: moderate growth, but this

depends on a number of factors...

37

The Productivity

Puzzle: Is the economy less

weak than we think it is?

Exports: Can the UK export more

to emerging markets?

Austerity: Will it be softened in the

UK (and elsewhere)?

Saving/spending: A fall in the saving ratio

(and a rise in

confidence) would help

Commodity prices: Inflation depends on

domestic & external

factors

Strength of

advanced markets: Eurozone, US, Japan

What will medium term growth depend on?


Images cc : Horia Varlan, Jed Sullivan, Images_of_Money, 401(K) 2013, KevinLallier, openDemocracy

The Uses of Celebrity Culture

Parimal Makwana, Editor nVision UK

May 2013

39

Celebrity culture: more and more intimate


Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000-5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013 nVision Qualitative Research 2013

“With celebrity culture today it’s almost as if

celebrities are our friends, or relatives –

that’s how often we see pictures of them.” Female, 23, London

“Celebrities should

give up their right to

individual privacy”

48%

40

familiarity “Of course if you see a familiar face in an advert

you pay more attention since it is a bit like

seeing a friend.” Female, 23, UK

fascination “I think it is a form of escapism, a little like

watching a soap opera.” Female, 27, UK

emulation “We are led to believe that these women are

perfect and that we should try to be like them.”

Female, 27, UK

aspiration “It could be suggested that some celebrity

figures influence me and my friends’ lives, often

serving as inspiration to us.” Male, 34, UK


Celebrity influence: multiple levels

nVision Qualitative Research 2013

41

Summary


We don’t really care what famous people do nor are we really influenced by them

Social norm:

Celeb-watching is a national pastime Beyond our gleeful fascination celebrity inspires us

Reality:

Celebrity influence has range: fun/familiar to trendsetting Get closer: authentic narratives strengthen the iconic

influence of celebrities Move with celebrity culture: it is an adaptable beast

Resolution:

Nick Chiarelli, Key Account Director

May 2013

An update on maximising

43

Consumers feel they ought to maximise

(and be seen maximising)


51%

I really/somewhat enjoy talking about products /services I

have recently bought at a really good price

“These days you feel

slightly stupid if you turn

up to Zizzi, or Pizza

Express, or Prezzo or any

of those chains without a

voucher or a code.

You can just imagine the

waiters thinking how crazy

you are to be paying the

full price.”

Female, aged 47, Surrey

44

Sometimes consumers deliberately

opt not to maximise


Indulgence 61%

It's really important that I can treat

myself when I want

Luxury 31%

prepared to pay full price for good

customer service

Convenience 74% of mums

are interested in a home delivery

service which brings the groceries to

my door at precisely the time I prefer

Authenticity 53%

I would rather buy something

handcrafted than mass-produced


45

An update on maximising – Final thoughts


Maximising is becoming tech-enabled second nature to today’s savvy

and hyper rational shopper.

Social norm:

Not all purchases are (or will ever be) maximised.

Maximising involves a strong emotional component.

It is in danger of becoming consumers’ default expectation.

Algorithms will further distance consumers from the joy of maximising.

Reality:

Spotting a maximiser mindset in-store will be key.

Bring back the thrill of the hunt

Resolution:

The Myth of Protest

Christophe Jouan CEO

May 2013

47

Strongly agree

Consumer radicalism – Driven by whom?

The Myth of Protest

“Companies should be penalised for failing to care for the environment”

“British people today should be more angry about high bonuses paid to City of London bankers”

Gen Y Gen X Baby boomers

48% 37%

54%

18-24s

2013

18%

2009

22%

2007

26% 2013

19%

2013

48%

48

Safety & Security The (strong) need to do something dangerous

Rules & regulations % in favour of increased regulation

So what is society about?

The Myth of Protest

8%

2001 2004

2007 2011 2013

7% 6% 6%

16-24 years old

19%

13%

2011

2013

5%

Baby boomers

Gen X Gen Y

“A pregnant woman found smoking in a public place should be given a caution by a police officer”

31% 45% 20%

70%

49

The Myth of Protest – Final thoughts

People have become very angry. They are increasingly willing to engage and protest. Brands that incur the wrath of consumers will suffer badly.

Social norm:

There is some real anger about some issues...but NO real sign of radicalism and protest on a big scale.

Many campaigns local in scope & therefore niche in interest. Gen Y least likely to engage beyond ‘pop radicalism’.

Reality:

Need for CSR beyond hygiene factors? Pop radical – rebellion within a ‘safe’ framework. Brand to provide reassurance: safety, security and consumer control.

Resolution:

The nVitro Scan

Dominic Harrison, Head of Global Trends

From Here to Eternity:

Will Seymour, Editorial Analyst

May 2013

51 From Here to Eternity: The nVitro Scan

Self-powering devices

Create and 3D print at home

Wearable computing

Monitored bodies, lifestyles, homes

Next-generation interfaces

Networked people, products

Flexible, conductive materials

54

She’s played 7 hours this week. Is she ready to play the bass

solo from You Can Call Me Al?

Are you kidding?

OK, I’ll get the backing track for Seven Nation Army.

From Here to Eternity: The nVitro Scan

Networked Data

55

“In November 2011, when Apple launched the iPhone 4S,

they put in Bluetooth Smart... they gave an unprecedented

amount of access to the radio, so you could really start to

create very custom accessories.”

Robert Milner, Cambridge Consultants


56

“For the user it’s freeing

them up, helping them to

do more advanced things

by using less of their time.”

Robert Milner,

Cambridge Consultants


Computers learn human

Beyond 20/20

Jason Mander, Head of Insight

May 2013

58

Recognition from others

Beyond 20/20


Social networkers

Others

41%

41%

Social networkers

Others

34%

23%

Moderately

Strongly

59

% who are social networkers

Beyond 20/20

Source: nVision Research | Base: All individuals aged 16+, GB, May 2013 forecast

16-24s

+4%

65+

+15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2008 | 2013 | 2020(f)

60

33% 73%

Mobile networking

Beyond 20/20

2013

2020

Source: nVision Research | Base: All individuals 16+, GB, May 2013 forecast

61

Society of Sobriety

Beyond 20/20

De-tagging photos

Total: 40%

Smokers: 61%

Drinkers: 68%

Need to look good

Networkers: 63%

Smokers: 72%

Drinkers: 71%


62 Beyond 20/20

Mean age of mother at birth

1990 2020

27.7

30.3

Average age at first marriage

1990 2020

25.2

30.5

Life delayed

Source: National Statistics/nVision | Base: England and Wales, May 2013 forecast Source: Population Trends, National Statistics/nVision, UK, May 2013 forecast

63

Ageless beauty

Beyond 20/20

Source: Eurostat/nVision, 2012 Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012

“People should make

an effort to look their

best at any age”

Total: 69%

65+: 83%

Population over 65 (millions)

2000

9.3

2010

10.2

2020

12.4

1990

9.0

nLightenment nVision-style

James Murphy, Editorial Director

May 2013

65 nLightenment nVision-style

How is Insight influenced/improved

by the play of publicly available ideas?

Are there any Silver Bullets?

New and better propositions and techniques

by which to understand consumer behaviour?

Under the lens of these organised commentaries,

what does the future seem to hold?

The nLighten Focus on Trends

66

We might also ask...


Is the quality of technological innovation being matched by

similar creativity and precision in the field of:

Understanding of consumer need and motive?

Socio-economic prediction?

Trend identification and trend application inside strategy?

http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=E3tiIoshEYHq-M&tbnid=Rg0rUnVsIWY4VM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.sialnews.com/latest-news/sony-released-an-internet-linked-wristwatch/attachment/sony-internet-linked-wristwatch/&ei=-PF7Ua7bBcil0QWUjoDQBg&bvm=bv.45645796,d.d2k&psig=AFQjCNEJN2a0Qtlc9t1B4Wi7uEYipk5yXw&ust=1367163761135734

67

Do we notice anything about modern insight literature?


Much of it depends too heavily on

marketing anecdote (e.g. the

disaster of New Coca Cola) in

order to prove the validity of a

solitary idea.

Too often, consumers are

compared to people taking part in

psychological tests (e.g. the

Milgram Experiment).

Academic journals are trawled for

often tired and limited case studies.

68

Do we notice anything about modern insight literature?


There is a tendency for themes which

are hip-and-happening to be favoured

by the publishing and authoring

community – a hit parade effect not

always capturing the best music.

Social and cultural problems often

seem exaggerated for dramatic

emphasis.

There can be too much of the

Consultant’s Itch: something must

be wrong and I can fix it.

69

Ideas impact the regulatory environment: re-shaping the prospects for trends


70

Two FF trends: influenced by the battle of ideas…


The Cult of Immediacy…

the observation that grateful anticipation of future satisfaction has

long since been extirpated from the consumer

psyche.

Murdered By Modernity…

the assumption that the future is to contain ever more pathologies of a

inevitably pernicious kind.

71 nLightenment nVision-style

Strong Buzz

That the future is not what it used to be, arriving more rapidly and

explosively than it ever did.

That such is hegemony of algorithmic efficiency now that

rewards must flow to the best 21st century guerrilla marketing.

That as consumer experiences morph so their need for new forms of reassurance, new directions in brand narrative, must intensify.

More information? Please contact Karen Canty, Head of News

Email: [email protected]

Direct number: +44 (0) 20 3008 6107