financiera, desaceleración, commodities - world...

11

Crisis financiera, desaceleraciCrisis financiera, desaceleracióón, n, commoditiescommodities: : LatinoamLatinoaméérica ante el deterioro rica ante el deterioro

del contexto internacionaldel contexto internacional

Augusto de la TorreAugusto de la Torre

BogotBogotáá, Colombia, Colombia

25 de Septiembre 200825 de Septiembre 2008

Banco MundialOficina del Economista JefeAmérica Latina y el Caribe

22

Hoja de ruta

Shocks externosCrisis financiera, desaceleración global, presiones inflacionarias

Cómo está lidiando la región con este entorno?Contagio financiero?

Precios de commodities• Términos de intercambio

• Presiones inflacionarias

• Presiones distributivas

Perspectivas para el crecimiento – corto y largo plazo

33

Deterioro del entorno externoDeterioro del entorno externo

44The S&P/Case‐Shiller 10 index is a composite index of housing prices in 10 U.S. metropolitan areas. Source: Bloomberg.

Crisis financiera en Estados UnidosImplosión del mercado hipotecario

US House Prices and ForeclosuresS&P/ Case‐Shiller 10 Index and number of foreclosure homes

272.1

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230

250

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

S&P/Ca

se Shiller Inde

x

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Num

ber of fo

reclosure ho

mes (in thou

sand

s of hom

es)Foreclosures (rhs)

Case‐Shiller

55LCRCE staff calculations. Delinquent loans are those past due thirty days or more and still accruing interest as well as those in nonaccrualstatus. Bank’s Credit is nominal credit deflated by CPI. Source: Federal Reserve

Crisis financiera en Estados UnidosDeterioro de la calidad del crédito y contracción

Real Bank's Credit Growth and Delinquency Rate ‐ All Commercial BanksCredit growth and Delinquency rates

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2001Q2 2002Q1 2002Q4 2003Q3 2004Q2 2005Q1 2005Q4 2006Q3 2007Q2 2008Q1

Delinqu

ency rate (%

of total lo

ans)

‐3.0%

‐2.0%

‐1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

Real Ban

k's Cred

it (Q

oQ variation

,end

of p

eriod, in

%)

Others Commercial and industrial Real Estate Consumers Bank's Credit (rhs)

66

Crisis financiera en Estados UnidosPérdidas y recapitalización

Cumulative Bank Writedowns and Credit Losses vs. Capital Raisedin billions of U.S. dollars

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

Prior 3Q‐07 4Q‐07 1Q‐08 2Q‐08 3Q‐08

Writedowns and Credit Losses

Capital Raised

Note: The figures reported above do not include Freddie Mac an Fannie Mae. Source: Bloomberg.

77“Problem” institutions are those institutions with financial, operational, or managerial weakness that threaten their continued financialviability based on FDIC composite ratings. Source: FDIC

Crisis financiera en Estados UnidosInstituciones con problemas y cierres de bancos

Deposit Insurance Fund and "Problem" Institutionsin billions of US$

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun2008YTD

Prob

lem institutions

35

37

39

41

43

45

47

49

51

53

55

Combine

d Dep

osit In

surance Fund

‐ in billion of US$

Combined Dep. Ins. Fund (rhs)

Problem Institutions

13 banks failed since Aug‐07Total assets: $43 billion

88Note: The Chicago Board Options Exchange SPX Volatility Index (VIX) reflects a market estimate of future volatility, based on the weighted average ofthe implied volatilities for a wide range of strikes. Merrill Option Volatility Estimate (MOVE) is a yield curve weighted index of the normalized impliedvolatility on 1‐month Treasury options. It is the weighted average of volatilities on the CT2, CT5, CT10, and CT30. JPMorgan Volatility index (VXY) iscaculated based on currency 3 month ATMF vols, which are combined with a set of fixed weights to produce the daily result. Source: Bloomberg

Crisis financiera en Estados UnidosAlta incertidumbre; mercado monetario dislocado

Market Pricing of VolatilityIndex Jan‐00=100

30

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Dec‐04

Oct‐05

Aug

‐06

Jun‐07

Apr‐08

Equities (VIX)Interest rates (MOVE)Currencies (VXY)

Interbank Markets3‐Month LIBOR minus T‐bill rate, in %

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Dec‐01

Oct‐02

Aug

‐03

Jun‐04

Apr‐05

Feb‐06

Dec‐06

Oct‐07

Aug

‐08

United StatesJapanEuro Area

9

CDS of the 5 biggest Banks in U.S.5 years CDS, in basis points

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Jan‐07 Apr‐07 Jul‐07 Oct‐07 Jan‐08 Apr‐08 Jul‐08

9LCRCE staff calculations – Source: Bloomberg.

Crisis financiera en Estados UnidosEstrés se extiende a grandes bancos comerciales

July 13.Treasuryand FedexplicitlyguarantyFreddie Mac and Fannie Mae

March 16.Bear Sterns &JP Morgan ChaseMerge.

5Y Brazil CDS

Lehman failed; AIG bailout

1010Source: Bloomberg

Crisis financiera en Estados UnidosUna semana tétrica – Septiembre 15‐19

Fly to qualityS&P Index and Libor Rate

1150

1170

1190

1210

1230

1250

1270

1290

1310

1‐Aug

8‐Aug

15‐Aug

22‐Aug

29‐Aug

5‐Sep

12‐Sep

19‐Sep

S&P Inde

x Num

ber

2.7

2.8

2.9

3

3.1

3.2

3.3

Libo

r in percentage po

ints (inverted axis)

S&P

Libor (rhs)

Fly to qualityGold and T‐bill yield

700

750

800

850

900

950

1‐Aug

8‐Aug

15‐Aug

22‐Aug

29‐Aug

5‐Sep

12‐Sep

19‐Sep

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

T‐bill yield (in

verted

axis)

GoldT‐bill (rhs)

11

Crisis financiera en Estados UnidosGigantesco salvataje

Staggering Size of Government Support

Lender of Last Resort

Liquidity injections ($93 bn)*

“Capitalist” of last resort

Deposit Insurance Fund use ($7.2 bn)

Bear Sterns ($30 bn of bad assets )

Freddie and Fannie (guarantee, conservatorship)

AIG ($85 bn 2‐year loan)

Guarantee on money market funds ($50 bn)

TARP ($700 bn – under congressional discussion)

*For the week‐ended September 17 (Wednesday), the overall amount of liquidity provision by the Fed, which includes discount window loans, Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), and the AIG credit extension (of US$ 28 bn ‐‐‐ almost 1/3 of the US$ 85 bn. loan), stood at more than US$ 121 bn.

1212

Economía real de Estados UnidosDébil demanda doméstica y presiones de precios

Source: Bloomberg

U.S. Economic Indicatorsannual variations, in %

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

Mar‐01

Jun‐01

Sep‐01

Dec‐01

Mar‐02

Jun‐02

Sep‐02

Dec‐02

Mar‐03

Jun‐03

Sep‐03

Dec‐03

Mar‐04

Jun‐04

Sep‐04

Dec‐04

Mar‐05

Jun‐05

Sep‐05

Dec‐05

Mar‐06

Jun‐06

Sep‐06

Dec‐06

Mar‐07

Jun‐07

Sep‐07

Dec‐07

Mar‐08

Jun‐08

Real GDPUnemploymentCPI Inflation

13

Economía real de Estados UnidosExportaciones (y tipo de cambio) al rescate

LCRCE staff calculations. Contribution of GDP demand components to growth. Gross private domestic investment includes changes inprivate inventories. *2008: 1st semester YoY variation SA. Source: St. Louis FED

U.S. Sources of Growth DecompositionReal GDP ‐ 2000 US dollars

0.8%0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%

‐0.4%

0.6%1.5%

1.0% 0.4%

‐0.9% ‐0.8%

‐0.7%

‐0.5% ‐0.7%

0.6%

1.5%

1.9%1.9%

2.6%

2.2%

2.2%2.0%

1.0%

0.1%‐0.2%

‐2.0%

‐1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Jun‐08

Personal Consumption ExpenditureNet Exports of Goods & ServicesGross Private Domestic InvestmentGovernment Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment

2.1%2.1%2.9%

1414

La reciente escalada de precios de commodities…

The World Bank’s Commodity Price Index measures prices of primary commodities exported by developing countries. Prices series used in the index are export (f.o.b.) market prices in US dollars. Source: World Bank.

Commodity Prices World Bank Commodity Price Index (2000=100) ‐ in current US$

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Jan‐03

Apr‐03

Jul‐0

3

Oct‐03

Jan‐04

Apr‐04

Jul‐0

4

Oct‐04

Jan‐05

Apr‐05

Jul‐0

5

Oct‐05

Jan‐06

Apr‐06

Jul‐0

6

Oct‐06

Jan‐07

Apr‐07

Jul‐0

7

Oct‐07

Jan‐08

Apr‐08

Jul‐0

8

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95Euro/Dollar

Petroleum

Food

Metals and Minerals

1515

… dio paso a un aumento de inflación en el mundo

The World Bank’s Commodity Price Index measures prices of primary commodities exported by developing countries. Prices series used in the index are export (f.o.b.) market prices in US dollars. Source: World Bank.

Consumer Price Inflationannual variations, in %

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jun‐06

Jul‐0

6

Aug

‐06

Sep‐06

Oct‐06

Nov

‐06

Dec‐06

Jan‐07

Feb‐07

Mar‐07

Apr‐07

May‐07

Jun‐07

Jul‐0

7

Aug

‐07

Sep‐07

Oct‐07

Nov

‐07

Dec‐07

Jan‐08

Feb‐08

Mar‐08

Apr‐08

May‐08

Jun‐08

WorldIndustrial CountriesLACEmerging AsiaEmerging Europe

1616

Contagio financiero?Contagio financiero?

17

Latin America EMBI & U.S. High Yield Spreadsin basis points

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Jan/04 Jul/04 Jan/05 Jul/05 Jan/06 Jul/06 Jan/07 Jul/07 Jan/08 Jul/08

LAC EMBI SpreadUS High Yield SpreadASIA EMBI Spread

Prima de riesgo soberano de América Latina: volátil pero diferenciada de los “bono basura”

Source: Bloomberg – US Credit Suisse High Yield Spread, Latin America JP Morgan EMBI Global.

18

El menor “beta” de los bonos soberanos latinos genera beneficios de diversificación

LCRCE calculations. Source: Bloomberg – JP Morgan EMBI Global Total Return & S&P 500 Total Return. Monthly data.

Beta of LAC EMBI w.r.t. US Stock Market Portfoliovariables in axes in %

y = 1.1856x ‐ 2.0371

y = 0.2009x + 0.3431

‐35

‐30

‐25

‐20

‐15

‐10

‐5

0

5

10

15

‐15 ‐10 ‐5 0 5 10 15

S&P500 Total Return

EMBI Latin Total Return (non

inv. grade)

Aug97‐Aug99

Jul06‐Ago08

% Change

Correlation (44.61)LAC non inv. EMBI vol (74.08)S&P vol. 15.02

Beta (76.25)

19

Dentro del EMBI regional, los países se pueden clasificar en tres grupos…

Source: Bloomberg – Latin America JP Morgan EMBI Global

High EMBI Spread LAC countriesin basis points

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Jan05 Jul05 Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08

Arg VenEcu Rep. Dom.Belize

Medium EMBI Spread LAC countriesin basis points


50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Pan SLV PerTTO Col BraUru

```

Low EMBI Spread LAC countriesin basis points

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0


50

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Mexico Chile

``

20

… dependiendo del comportamiento de sus EMBIsen relación al de los “bonos basura” de los EEUU

Source: Bloomberg – US Credit Suisse High Yield Spread, Latin America JP Morgan EMBI Global.

Latin EMBI & U.S. High Yield Spreadsin basis points

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jan‐04 Jul‐04 Jan‐05 Jul‐05 Jan‐06 Jul‐06 Jan‐07 Jul‐07 Jan‐08 Jul‐08

LAC Low EMBI spreadLAC Medium EMBI spreadLAC High EMBI spreadHigh Yield Spread

excluding Argentina*

including Argentina*

21

El contagio hacia los mercados accionarios emergentes ha sido mucho más pronunciado…

LAC: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico. CEEMEA: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia. Asia: China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Source: Bloomberg. Indices are simple averages

Stocks in Emerging Markets in 2008Index number ‐ Jan 01=100

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

1‐Jan

15‐Jan

29‐Jan

12‐Feb

26‐Feb

11‐M

ar

25‐M

ar

8‐Ap

r

22‐Apr

6‐May

20‐M

ay

3‐Jun

17‐Jun

1‐Jul

15‐Jul

29‐Jul

12‐Aug

26‐Aug

9‐Sep

S&P LAC CEEMEA Asia

22

… el financiamiento externo para las firmas se ha encarecido de manera pronunciada…

LCRCE staff calculations. Source: Bloomberg – US Credit Suisse High Yield Spread, JP Morgan CEMBI Global: Corporate Emerging MarketsBond Index. CEEMEA: Central Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa.

Corporate EMBI & U.S. High Yield Bond Spreadin basis points

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

Jan/04 Jul/04 Jan/05 Jul/05 Jan/06 Jul/06 Jan/07 Jul/07 Jan/08 Jul/08

AsiaLatin

CEEMEAHigh Yield

23

… la previa apreciación de las monedas latinas frente al dólar se está revirtiendo…

LAC: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Chile, Mexico. CEEMEA: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Russia. Asia: China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand. Source: Bloomberg. Indices are simple averages.

Currencies in Emerging Markets in 2008Index number ‐ Jan 01=100

85

90

95

100

105

110

1‐Jan

15‐Jan

29‐Jan

12‐Feb

26‐Feb

11‐M

ar

25‐M

ar

8‐Ap

r

22‐Apr

6‐May

20‐M

ay

3‐Jun

17‐Jun

1‐Jul

15‐Jul

29‐Jul

12‐Aug

26‐Aug

9‐Sep

LAC CEEMEA Asia

24

… y la acumulación de reservas internacionales se ha frenado

LCRCE staff calculations. Source: Bloomberg – JP Morgan EMBI Global Total Return & S&P 500 Total Return. Monthly data.

International Reserves for Selected LAC coutriesIndex: Jan2004=100

LAC:US$184bn

LAC:US$442bn

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Jan04 Jul04 Jan05 Jul05 Jan06 Jul06 Jan07 Jul07 Jan08 Jul08

LAC Arg BraChl Col PerUry

Performance of Selected LAC Currencies Unit of local currencies bis‐a‐bis US dollars. Index

100=Jul2006

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jul06 Nov06 Mar07 Jul07 Nov07 Mar08 Jul08

PER ARG BRA CHI COL MEX

25

Los flujos de capital a la región, especialmente la inversión directa, se han mantenido fuertes

LAC7= Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru y Venezuela. Source: IMF’s Balance of Payments Statistics and National sources

Gross capital inflows to LAC7(12 months cumulative ‐ in US$ billions)

0

50

100

150

200

250

2001

.1

2001

.2

2001

.3

2001

.4

2002

.1

2002

.2

2002

.3

2002

.4

2003

.1

2003

.2

2003

.3

2003

.4

2004

.1

2004

.2

2004

.3

2004

.4

2005

.1

2005

.2

2005

.3

2005

.4

2006

.1

2006

.2

2006

.3

2006

.4

2007

.1

2007

.2

2007

.3

2007

.4

2008

.1

FDI Non‐FDI

26

La necesidad de financiamiento neto – fiscal y externo – se ha sido baja, hasta ahora

Source: EIU

Fiscal Balance in selected LAC countriesas % of GDP

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Mexico

Peru

Venezuela

2006

2007

2008

Current Account balance in LAC countriesas % of GDP

‐4

‐2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Argentina

Brazil

Chile

Colombia

Mexico

Peru

Venezuela

2006

2007

2008

27

La región ha conquistado menor vulnerabilidad pero las amenazas externas se han acentuado

La buena suerte es sólo parte de la historia

A más de una baja necesidad de financiamiento neto fiscal y externo …

… hay logros fundamentales que se refuerzan mutuamenteMayor independencia y credibilidad de los bancos centrales

Flexibilidad del tipo de cambio y objetivos de inflación

Mercados de deuda en moneda local más profundos

… y que han reducido significativamente el descalce de monedas (una fuente de vulnerabilidad letal tradicional)

Política fiscal: no ha sido particularmente fuerte pero tampoco ha sido des‐estabilizante

28

Precios de Precios de commoditiescommodities y y presiones inflacionariaspresiones inflacionarias

29

A pesar de fuertes asimetrías entre países, las ganancias de términos de intercambio dominan

Terms of Trade for Selected LAC countrieschange between 2002‐2007 ‐ in %

‐20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%

DRURYHNDCRINICPANGTSLVHTIMEXPARARGBRALACECUCOLBOLPERCHLVEN

LCRCE staff calculations. We use 2006 GDP (current US$) and population figures. Source: ECLAC.

Winners 11 55% 2,760 95% 476 90%Lossers 9 45% 136 5% 55 10%Total 20 2,897 531

# CountriesGDP (current USD, bn)

Pop. (mn)

30

La inflación se aceleró en la región en su conjunto pero parece estar estabilizándose …

LAC: Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Trinidad y Tobago, Uruguay and VenezuelaLCRCE staff calculations. Source: National data sources and Bloomberg.

Consumer Price Inflation in LACannual variations, in %

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

Jan‐05

Feb‐05

Mar‐05

Apr‐05

May‐05

Jun‐05

Jul‐0

5Aug

‐05

Sep‐05

Oct‐05

Nov

‐05

Dec‐05

Jan‐06

Feb‐06

Mar‐06

Apr‐06

May‐06

Jun‐06

Jul‐0

6Aug

‐06

Sep‐06

Oct‐06

Nov

‐06

Dec‐06

Jan‐07

Feb‐07

Mar‐07

Apr‐07

May‐07

Jun‐07

Jul‐0

7Aug

‐07

Sep‐07

Oct‐07

Nov

‐07

Dec‐07

Jan‐08

Feb‐08

Mar‐08

Apr‐08

May‐08

Jun‐08

Jul‐0

8Aug

‐08

Population weighted Median

Simple average

31

El fenómeno ha sido bastante generalizado, ya que un factor externo común está actuando

Source: National Authorities

Consumer Price Inflationannual variations, in %

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan‐05

Feb‐05

Mar‐05

Apr‐05

May‐05

Jun‐05

Jul‐0

5Aug

‐05

Sep‐05

Oct‐05

Nov

‐05

Dec‐05

Jan‐06

Feb‐06

Mar‐06

Apr‐06

May‐06

Jun‐06

Jul‐0

6Aug

‐06

Sep‐06

Oct‐06

Nov

‐06

Dec‐06

Jan‐07

Feb‐07

Mar‐07

Apr‐07

May‐07

Jun‐07

Jul‐0

7Aug

‐07

Sep‐07

Oct‐ 07

Nov

‐07

Dec‐07

Jan‐08

Feb‐08

Mar‐08

Apr‐08

May‐08

Jun‐08

Jul‐0

8Aug

‐08

Chile Colombia Costa Rica Peru Panama Ecuador Brazil

32

Muchos países de la región han venido incumpliendo sus metas de inflación

Source: National Authorities.

Inflation Target and Actual Inflation for Selected LAC countriesas of August 2008 ‐ in % YoY

6.5

4.04.5

4.0

3.0

7.0

4.0

6.2

9.3

7.9

5.66.3

13.7

9.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

BRA CHL COL MEX PER GTM SLV

Upper Bound of the Inflation Target

Actual Inflation

33

La mayoría de los países latinos han endurecido proactivamente su política monetaria…

Source: Bloomberg – National Authorities

Monetary Policy Ratesin %

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan‐06 Jun‐06 Nov‐06 Apr‐07 Sep‐07 Feb‐08 Jul‐08

CHI MEX

PER US

Monetary Policy Ratesin %

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan‐06 Jun‐06 Nov‐06 Apr‐07 Sep‐07 Feb‐08 Jul‐08

ARG BRA COL

34

… para limitar efectos de “segunda ronda” y con miras a anclar las expectativas inflacionarias

Real Policy Rate Policy rate minus expected inflation for the

next 12 months

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

Oct‐07

Nov

‐07

Dec‐07

Jan‐08

Feb‐08

Mar‐08

Apr‐08

May‐08

Jun‐08

Jul‐0

8

Aug

‐08

Sep‐08

in percentage po

ints

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

in percentage po

ints

Chile MexicoColombia Brazil (rhs)

Source: Bloomberg – National Authorities

Expected Inflationfor the next 12 months

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

Oct‐07

Nov

‐07

Dec‐07

Jan‐08

Feb‐08

Mar‐08

Apr‐08

May‐08

Jun‐08

Jul‐0

8

Aug

‐08

Sep‐08

in percentage po

ints

ChileMexicoColombiaBrazil

35

La complejidad de los desafíos de política monetaria varía significativamente entre países

Term

s of

Tra

de(%

cha

nge

betw

een

2002

-200

7)

Economic ActivityHEATING COOLING

> 0 COL

PER

MEX

URY

PAR

ARG

BRA

CHL

BOL

CRI

HND

PAN

< 0 JAM

NIC

DR

GTM

Term

s of

Tra

de(%

cha

nge

betw

een

2002

-200

7)

We define “heating” when the average GDP growth of the last 3 years exceeds the trend growth (calculated using the Hodrick‐Prescott Filter). LCRCE staff calculations. Source: WDI, EIU

36

Precios de Precios de commoditiescommoditiesy tensiones distributivasy tensiones distributivas

3737

El “pass‐through” involucra precios socialmente sensibles (alimentos y combustibles)…

Source: National data sources. *countries where the inflation index is available only up to June 2008

Consumer & Food Prices in Latin Americaannual variation, in % ‐ as of August 2008

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

MEX

BRA

ECU

PER

COL

SLV*

URY

CHL

GTM

*

NIC*

VEN

IPC Food

3838

… y castiga más a los pobres en países de bajo ingreso y con pérdida en términos de intercambio

Source: World Bank staff (LCRCE) calculations ‐ National data sources. *countries where the inflation index is available only up to December 2007. Countries highlighted in red have had negative terms of trade changes in 2002‐2006.

Weight of Food on the CPI basketagainst GDP per capita as of 2006, at 2000 US$

BHS*

BLZ*

BOL

BRA

BRB*

CHL

COL

CRI

ECU GTMGUY*

HNDHTI

JAM

MEX

NIC

PAN

PAR

PERSLV

TTO*

URY

VEN

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%weigth of food (as % of CPI basket)

GDP pe

r capita

39

Las complejidad del desafío para la política fiscal redistributiva varía significativamente entre países

Term

s of

Tra

de(%

cha

nge

betw

een

2002

-200

7)

Fiscal maneuvering marginHigh

VEN

PER

ECU

CRI

DR

Medium Low

CHL

MEX

ARG BOL

JM COL

PAN BRA

SLV

GTM

URU

Term

s of

Tra

de(%

cha

nge

betw

een

2002

-200

7)

GA

INS

LOSS

ES

Thresholds: a) Yes: Primary balance above 1% of GDP, Expenditures as a % of GDP less than 25% and Public Debt below 45% of GDP in the last three years (2005‐7). b) No: Primary balance deficit, Expenditures as % of GDP greater than 30% or Public Debt above 50% of GDP in at least 1 year during 2005‐7. c) Perhaps: Otherwise. Source: EIU

40

Perspectivas para el crecimientoPerspectivas para el crecimiento

41

El mundo se desacelera y las perspectivas empeoran con el deterioro financiero en EEUU

LCRCE staff calculations based on Consensus Forecasts and IMF projections. The lower bound is determined by the IMF scenario. The median and the upper bound are based on the Consensus Forecasts. Data and forecasts for LAC are taken from ECLAC.

Recent Growth and Forecast for 2008 and 2009annual GDP real growth rate, in %

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

US EURO China LAC Asian Tigers

2006200720082009

0.2

2.5

0.4

1.8

10.0

8.0

42

Los países de la región están inmersos en la desaceleración cíclica del crecimiento global

Source: ECLAC

LAC: Real GDP Growth and Forecasts (ECLAC) annual variation, in %

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru

2006 2007 2008f 2009f

43

En efecto, el componente cíclico de los países de la región va sincronizado con el de los países ricos

The cyclical component of real GDP growth is computed using the band‐pass filter (Baxter and King, 1999). LCRCE staff calculations. Source: WDI – World Bank; National Authorities.

Cyclical component of Growth in LAC and High‐Income CountriesCyclical component of GDP annual growth computed using the band‐pass filter

‐4%

‐3%

‐2%

‐1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

High‐Income

Latin America

44

Pero el crecimiento tendencial reciente de la región se deslindó del de los países ricos

The trend growth of real GDP growth is computed using the band‐pass filter (Baxter and King, 1999). LCRCE staff calculations. Source: WDI – World Bank; National Authorities.

Cyclical‐adjusted Growth in Latin America and High‐Income CountriesTrend growth computed using the band‐pass filter

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009

High‐Income

Latin America

45

Se acentuó la relación entre el crecimiento de la región y el de China

Note: Solid colours reflect statistically significant correlations with and confidence interval of 10%. LCRCE calculations. Source: National Authorities.

Output Co‐Movement between LAC and China20 years rolling correlation of the Real GDP growth

‐0.4

‐0.3

‐0.2

‐0.1

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Arg Bra Per

Mex Pan Col

46

La inversión creció en muchos países de la región…

LCRCE staff calculations. Source: WDI, DECPG, and national authorities

Gross Capital Formation in selected LAC countries(as % of GDP)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

ARG BRA CHL COL MEX PAN PER

2002

2007

47

… mayormente financiada por el creciente ahorro doméstico

LCRCE staff calculations. Source: WDI, DECPG

Saving, Investment and the Current Account in LACas percentage of GDP

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008f

‐6.0

‐5.0

‐4.0

‐3.0

‐2.0

‐1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Current Account (rhs) Saving Investment

48

Y hay signos de crecimiento de la productividad en algunos países de la región

* Chile average annual trend‐growth in TFP during 1990‐7. Trend GDP growth is computed using the band‐pass filter. LCRCE staff calculations. Source: PWT, DECPG

Total factor productivity growth in LAC and East Asia(average annual trend‐growth in TFP during 2000‐7, in %)

‐0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5

HNDECUPRYNICGTMJAMCHLMEXURYSLVLACCOLCRIBOLARGBRAIDNVENDOMPERTHAPANCH*

49

Podrá retornar la región a un alto crecimiento tendencial luego de la desaceleración cíclica?

Una menor vulnerabilidad ante los shocks es necesaria para sostener el crecimiento

… pero no es suficiente

También es necesario cerrar otras brechasCapital humanoInfraestructuraInnovación

50

Las perspectivas de crecimiento a mediano plazo (post‐desaceleración global) varían mucho

Term

s of

Tra

de(%

cha

nge

betw

een

2002

-200

7)

Investment and ProductivityHigh

PER

PRY PAN

BRA CHI COL

ARG MEX

NIC

SLV

GTM

Medium Low

BOL

DR

URY

ECU

CRI

HNDRea

l Exp

orts

of G

&S

Gro

wth

(% c

hang

e be

twee

n 20

02-2

007)

Hig

hLo

w

Thresholds: Investment and Productivity: High if TFP growth average (2002‐07) is greater than 2.2% and Gross capital formation as % of GDP average (2002‐07) is greater than 20%. Low if Gross capital formation as % of GDP average (2002‐07) is lower than 15% or TFP growth average (2002‐07) is lower than 0.5%.

51

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