WorkingwithHAZUSMH

BySilvanaVCroope

AworkingpapersubmittedtotheUniversityofDelawareUniversityTransportationCenter(UDUTC)

September1,2009

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DISCLAIMER:Thecontentsofthisworkingpaperreflecttheviewsoftheauthors,whoareresponsibleforthefactsandtheaccuracyof the information presented herein. This document isdisseminatedunderthesponsorshipoftheDepartmentofTransportationUniversityTransportationCentersProgram,in the interest of information exchange. The U.S.Government assumes no liability for the contents or usethereof.

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TableofContentsTableofContents................................................................................................................3ListofFigures......................................................................................................................4ListofTables.......................................................................................................................6Introduction........................................................................................................................7Background.....................................................................................................................7ObjectiveofthisWorkingPaper...................................................................................11Scope.............................................................................................................................11OverviewofHAZUSMH................................................................................................11TheHAZUSMHSoftware..............................................................................................13OverviewoftheWorkingPaper...................................................................................13

UnderstandingHAZUSMHFloodAnalysis.......................................................................13Step1:IdentifyHazards....................................................................................................16Step2:ProfileHazards......................................................................................................20Step3:InventoryofAssets...............................................................................................35Step4:EstimateLosses.....................................................................................................39DiscussionandEvaluationHAZUSResults.....................................................................52ApplicationtotheCaseStudy...........................................................................................54Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................59References........................................................................................................................60

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ListofFiguresFigure1CIRDSSSystemDynamicsDiagram......................................................................7Figure2FEMAHAZUSMHRiskAssessmentandOutputs...............................................12Figure3FloodModelSchematicsforHAZUSMH............................................................14Figure4Level1AnalysisSummarizedOutputExample...................................................16Figure5RegionCreatedtoDoAnalysesinHAZUSMH..................................................17Figure6BaseMapbuiltinHAZUSMHforSeafordAreaStudy.......................................18Figure7FloodImpactonBridgeonrouteUS13A........................................................20Figure8DEMErrorMessageinHAZUSMH.....................................................................22Figure9InstructionsforObtainingSpecificDEMforHAZUSMH....................................22Figure10NewDEMforSeafordArea...............................................................................23Figure11DEMIntegratedintoHAZUSMH......................................................................23Figure12BuildingStreamNetworkinHAZUSMH...........................................................24Figure13DefiningtheScenarioforAnalysisinHAZUSMH.............................................25Figure14DefiningAreaforFurtherAnalyses...................................................................25Figure15OptionforRiverineAnalysesType....................................................................26Figure16HAZUSMHWarningandSuggestiontoEnableSoftwareOperation...............27Figure17TimetoCompleteSingleReturnAnalysis.........................................................27Figure18SingleReturnPeriodMap.................................................................................27Figure19AnnualLossMap...............................................................................................28Figure20WhatifLeveeProtectionScenario................................................................29Figure21WhatifFlowRegulationScenarioProcess....................................................30Figure22WarningandSuggestiontoRunRiverineFlowRegulationAnalysis................30Figure23WhatifFlowRegulationMap........................................................................30Figure24FloodwaterVelocityEstimationMap...............................................................31Figure25FederalDisastersDamageGraphSussexDE..................................................34Figure26InventoryDataforHighwaySegmentsinHAZUSMH....................................36Figure27HighwaySegmentsintheHAZUSMHStudyAreaMap.................................37Figure28RoadsTablesfromHAZUSMHSoftwareandDataMILCenterline................37Figure29DamageFunctionforTransportationSystem...................................................41Figure30FloodDateinAgriculturalParameterforAnalysis...........................................42Figure31SettingupIndirectEconomicLossParameters(1)...........................................43Figure32FloodWarningAssumptionsforAnalysis.........................................................44Figure33ErrorMessageforAnnualLossAnalysis...........................................................44Figure34PreparingforAnnualizedLossAnalysis............................................................45Figure35SelectingAvailableResultstoView..................................................................46Figure36SeafordAreaAnnualLossesMapofDepth......................................................47Figure37SummaryReportsOptions................................................................................47Figure38QuickAssessmentReportforaSingleReturnPeriod.......................................51Figure39ComparisonbetweenGlobalSummaryforAnnualLossandSingleReturnPeriodLevee...................................................................................................................52Figure40DamagerelatedtoUS13inSussexCounty.......................................................54Figure41DetoursSetUpduringtheFloodofJune25,2006...........................................55

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Figure42STAPLEECriteriaforEvaluatingMitigationMeasures......................................56

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ListofTablesTable1GISAnalysisResultsforSeafordTransportationInfrastructure............................8Table2HAZUSMHMR3AnalysisResultsforSeafordTransportationInfrastructure.......9Table3HAZUSMHFloodModelAttributesforLevel1Analysis.....................................15Table4HazardsIdentificationforWorkingwithHAZUSMH...........................................19Table5HazardIdentificationandCharacterization.........................................................19Table6IdentificationofRequiredHazardDataforLevel1Analysis...............................20Table7HAZUSRiverineFloodHazardAnalysisProcess...................................................21Table8TypesofHazardsAnalyses...................................................................................28Table9ProfileHazardforCaseStudy...............................................................................32Table10SimilarFederalDisastersandDamagebetween1962and2006inSussexCounty...............................................................................................................................34Table11FEMAsHighwaySystemClassification..............................................................38Table12SummarizedReportforTransportationSystemDollarExposure......................48Table13SummarizedReportforVehicleDollarExposureforDayandNight.................48Table14SummarizedReportofEstimationforDebris....................................................49Table15SummaryReportforAnnualizedDirectEconomicLossesforBuildings............49Table16SummaryReportforDirectEconomicLossforVehiclesDayandNight............50Table17HAZUSMHShelterSummaryReport.................................................................50Table18SummarizedMitigationMeasuresbasedonHAZUSMHandHistoryforTransportationInfrastructureRoads..............................................................................57

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Introduction

Background

ThisworkingpaperservesasbackgroundresearchforthePhDdissertationtitledManagingCriticalCivilInfrastructureSystemsforDisasterResilience:AChallenge.TheoverallobjectiveofthisresearchistodevelopaDecisionSupportSystemtoimprovetheresilienceofcriticalinfrastructure.Thisinvolvestheexplorationofthepotentialimpactsofnaturaldisastersoninfrastructureoperationandmanagement.Thisincludesunderstandingthenatureofoperationsandmanagement,thedataandtoolstosupportdecisionmakingandananalysisoftheconsequencesoffailureordegradedoperationsandperformance.Thisalsoincludestheuseofexistingcomputationalsystemstodevelopageographicalcontext,civilinfrastructuresystemsanalysis,assetmanagementsystems,andinsightsintomitigationstrategiestodevelopmentthesystem.

Themodel,referredtoastheCriticalInfrastructureResilienceDecisionSupportSystem(CIRDSS),usedtheconceptofresiliencetosupportinfrastructuredecisionmakingusingSystemsDynamics.TheframeworkisshowninFigure1.

Figure1CIRDSSSystemDynamicsDiagram

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Toimplementthisframework,inputstothesystemdynamicsmodelaregeneratedusingGISandHAZUSMHthatdescribetheoverallanalysisoftheresilienceofaninfrastructuresystem.Thesystemisthenanalyzedusingsystemsdynamics.STELLAisgraphicallyorientedmodelingsoftwareusedtodevelopthesystemsdynamicsmodels.TheJune25,2006floodeventinSeaford,Delawareisusedtoillustratetheconceptsanddemonstratehowthecomplexsystemchangesovertime.

TheanalysisdevelopedinGISandHAZUSMHisnotrepeatedinSTELLA.GISandHAZUSMHareusedtogeneratemapsforvulnerabilityassessment,andestimateexposure.TheLevel2analysisinHAZUSMHorganizesandstructuresrelevantdata.TheresultsfromGISareshowninTable1.Themapsoriginallydevelopedarenotreadableinthistable,butincludedtodemonstratehowtoorganizeresults.Table1GISAnalysisResultsforSeafordTransportationInfrastructure

System Results Description

GIS(ArcInfo)

Fromthelefttotheright: DetoursSetUpduringtheFlood

ofJune25,2006(DelDOTspapermap),

SeafordStudyArea, SeafordAreaElevationProfilein

3DImage, RainPrecipitationoverSeaford, SeafordFloodedAreaand

ImpactedBridges, SeafordRoadNetworkand

DetoursAnalysis, LocationofDamaged

InfrastructureintheSeafordFloodedArea.

Event information supplied and maps developed can help direct relief supplies to areas of critical need and give out-of-state teams knowledge of local terrain and access to places.

TheresultsfromHAZUSMHareshowninTable2,includingmaps,tables

andreports,helpingorganizeallexistingoutputs.

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Table2HAZUSMHMR3AnalysisResultsforSeafordTransportationInfrastructureSystem Results Comments

HAZUSMHMR3

Fromthelefttotheright: BaseMapbuiltinHAZUSMHfor

SeafordArea(includelimitedareaaroundUS13),

SeafordAreaAnnualLossesMapofDepth,

WhatifLeveeProtectionScenario,

WhatifFlowRegulationScenario,

FloodwaterVelocityEstimationScenario,

DamagerelatedtoUS13inSussexCounty,

(Thereisanembeddedmitigationmeasureforwarningnotreflectedintheimages).

Organizedinformationforhelpinginterpretresults(lefttoright) HazardsIdentificationfor

WorkingwithHAZUSMH, HazardIdentificationand

Characterization, ProfileHazardforCaseStudy, SimilarFederalDisastersand

Damagebetween1962and2006inSussexCounty,

FederalDisastersDamageGraphSussexDE,

AnalysesResults SummarizedReportfor

TransportationSystemDollarExposure,

SummarizedReportofEstimationforDebris(require112truckloads),

SummarizedMitigationMeasuresbasedonHAZUSMHandHistoryforTransportationInfrastructureRoads,

HAZUSMHgivesnovaluefordirecteconomiclossanalysisfortransportation.TransportationInventorytableisadjustedinexcelformodeling.

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TheitemsinitalicsintheAnalysisResultsforHAZUSMHareimportantforthemodelinSTELLA.TheseitemsinitalicsincludedatausedinSTELLAandmitigationoptionsaccordingtotheFEMASTAPLEEcriteriaforbeingafeasiblemitigationmeasure.Themitigationoptionsincludeenhancingtheresilienceofthesystemasopposedtoaregularrebuildingorrepairoftheinfrastructuresystemsegmentsaccordingtoitsoriginaldesign.TheHighwayinventoryinHAZUSMHisnotinaproperformattobeaninputinSTELLA.ThisdataexportedtoEXCELisusedinthemodelingandsimulationprocessimportedintoSTELLA,whicheachnamedcolumninEXCELmustmatchtheelementsinthemodelinSTELLA.Also,tosimplifythe demonstrationofthemodel,asamplesizefromthisinfrastructurewasdeterminedUS13.ThedatarelatedtoUS13wasobtainedbycomparingtheHighwayinventoryfromHAZUSMH,andtheroaddatafromDataMILclippingittofitthestudyregioninHAZUSMHandthenhighlightingtheHAZUSMHsegmentlinkstoidentifytheirgivenidentificationcode.ThisprocessusedtheSelectFeaturetool,becausewhenopeningtheinventorytableoutfromArcMaporHAZUSMHinterface,theavailabletablesdidnotcarrytogetherintheinformationfornameofUS13segmentsandthevalueforcost.Also,tohighlightUS13inGISforaqualitativenetworkassessment,thecreationofthisnewlayerhelpssetuptheboundaryfortheanalysislateron.ThemodelinSTELLAcannothandlethesegeographicalspatialanalyses,thereforetheneedforintegratingtheresultsfromthesedifferentsystems.WorkingwithSTELLAimpliesworkingwithboth:modelconstructionandlearningprocess.Duringthemodelconstructionitisimportanttofollowthissequence(iseesystems.2004):

definetheissuedynamicthinking; developthehypothesis10,000meterandsystemasacausethinking; testthehypothesistoreplicatethedynamicphenomenon,andforrobustness(modelinsteadystate,testonethingatthetime,tofindlimitationsandwhenitstopsmakingsense).Robustnesstestshelpbuildingconfidenceinmodelsformulationsandidentifyhighleveragepoints(bigreaction);

drawconclusions;and assessrobustness.

TheseanalysesdevelopedinSTELLAworkwithsomeelementsoftheframework(mostlynotincludedininitialGISandHAZUSMHanalyses),including

CriticalInfrastructureManagementSystemincludingitssubsystems- Functional(AssetManagement)Subsystem(e.g.

reconstructioncost),- FinancialSubsystem(e.g.financialresourcesourceFEMA),- DecisionMakingSubsystem(e.g.DelDOTdecisionmakerand

protectivemeasuresdecisions);

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ResilienceManagementInformationSystem(e.g.disastertimingandresilienceofcalculations),and

ResultsPresentationSystem(e.g.userandagencybenefits).ObjectiveofthisWorkingPaper

ThisworkingpaperdescribeshowHAZUSMHworksandgeneratestheoutputsthatarelaterincludedintheSTELLAmodeltosimulatedifferentscenariostosupportDecisionMakingforimprovingsystemresilience.TheUsingHAZUSMHforRiskAssessmentHowToGuidefortheHAZUSMH(FEMA2004)presentsseveralwaystoworkwithdifferenthazards.Theguideprovidesandsuggestsorganizingprinciplesintheformofworksheets,presentsconcepts,anddocumentsbasiccommandsrequiredtoperformanalyses,howtointerpretresults,andexamples.

Scope

TheapplicationofHAZUSMHdescribedheresimplyillustrateshowthesoftwareisusedtogeneratetheoutputsthatareusedasinputstothemodeldevelopedinSTELLA.ThismeansthatnotalloptionsforandthefullcapabilitiesofHAZUSMHarediscussedhere.Similarlythemethods,models,dataandinterfaceusedinHAZUSMHarenotevaluatedorcritiqued.AccordingtotheHAZUSMHmanual(FEMA2004),hazardmitigationisactionstakentoreducethedestructionanddisruptioneffectsintheeventoffuturedisasters.Theseeffortsoftenresultinbetterandmorecosteffectivemethodsforrespondingtoandrecoveringfromadisaster.MitigationPlansfornaturalhazardsaremandatoryforstateandlocalentitiestobeeligibleforFEMAfundsundertheDisasterMitigationAct(DMA)2000enactedbytheCongress(reference).Planningformitigationisintendedtohelpcommunitiesidentifyeffectivepolicies,actionsandtoolstodecreasefuturelosses.Inthissense,hazardmitigationisbasedonriskassessmentstoestimatesocialandeconomicimpactofhazardsonpeople,buildings,services,facilitiesandinfrastructure.ThedatainventoryusedinHAZUSMHisfromnationalandregionaldatabasessuchastheUnitedStatesCensus,andcanbetailoredtomoredetailedanalyses.ThefocusisonfloodsusingtheHAZUSMHlevel1analysesandexistingembeddedinventory.TheanalysisusesdatafromtherealeventthathappenedinJuneof2006inDelaware.

OverviewofHAZUSMH

ThebasichazardmitigationplanningprocessaccordingtoFEMA(FEMA2004)includesorganizingresources,assessingrisk,developingamitigationplan,implementingtheplan,andmonitoringtheprogress.HAZUSMHintegratesthesephasesofmitigationplanningbyidentifyinghazards,profilinghazards,inventoryingassets,estimatinglosses,

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andconsideringmitigationoptions.ThedetailsforeachHAZUSMHactivitieslistedareshowninFigure2.

Figure2FEMAHAZUSMHRiskAssessmentandOutputs

Source:basedonUsingHAZUSMHforRiskAssessmentHowToGuide(FEMA2004).SuggestionsforhowtoworkwithHAZUSMHformitigationplanningincludestheparticipationofdecisionmakersaspartoftheteamtoassessrisk.InfactintheCIRDSSframeworkandinSTELLAthedecisionmakersareincludedtodefinewhatisneeded,whattheywanttohaveaccomplished,andtheboundariesandtimeforsuchworktobedeveloped.

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TheHAZUSMHSoftware

HAZUSMHwasdevelopedbyFEMAtostartaddressingtheneedforanationalapplicablestandardizedmethodologytodoriskassessment,analyzingpotentiallossesfromdifferentandmultihazardsimpacts.Basedontheanalysesresults,itspurposeistohelpgetinsightfordevelopingmitigationstrategiesandprojects.ToproperlyworkwithHAZUSMHitisimportanttokeeptrackofupdates,downloadandinstalladditionalPatches.ThesepatchesenabletoolsandfixproblemswithearlierversionsofthesoftwarerelatedtoperformanceorfunctionsinHAZUSMH.TheHAZUSMHbeingdescribedinthisworkingpaperisversion3HAZUSMHMR3.VersionMR3includesPatch2fromFEMAswebsiteunderresourceRecordDetails(FEMA2007).VersionMR3alsoincludesdownloadsforServicePackreleasesfromESRIfortheArcGISDesktop9.2:

ServicePack3(ESRI2007b),and ServicePack5(ESRI2007c).

EventhoughearlierversionsofHAZUSMHwillwork,itisimportanttoworkwiththemostrecentversionandcompanionmanual(inthiscaseMR3),becauseupdatesdisablethefunctionoficonsinearlierversions.However,explanationsindifferentHAZUSMHdocumentshelpsgetamorecompleteandbetterunderstandingofwhatisincludedandhowtoworkwithHAZUSMH.Specifically,theapplicationmanualfortheFloodModuleisontheApplicationDVD(BayBridgePublicInformationOffice2007).Thepathtoaccessthismanualis

inserttheDVD>rightclicktoopenitscontents(donotruntheprogram);

underManuals>Flood>UserManual; identify/searchfortheother(asecondmanual)specificmanualfor

flood:FloodInformationTool.BoththesemanualsdefinehowtodotheanalysisforthestudyregiondefinedinHAZUSMH.

OverviewoftheWorkingPaper

ThisworkingpaperbeginsbyprovidinganoverviewofHAZUSMHforfloodanalysis.Eachofthefoursteps(Step1:IdentifyHazards,Step2:ProfileHazards,Step3:InventoryofAssets,Step4:EstimateLosses)isthendescribedinsomedetail.Finally,commentsandobservationsarepresented.

UnderstandingHAZUSMHFloodAnalysisTheprocessforestimatingimpactsusingtheFloodModelisshownintheschematicinFigure3(FEMA2007).

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Figure3FloodModelSchematicsforHAZUSMH

Source:HAZUSMHApplicationFloodManual(FEMA2007).Themodelincludesandsummarizesinventoriesandcalculationstogiveinsightformitigationplansinaneasytouseversion.Themodelincludestwoanalyticalprocesses:floodhazardanalysisanddamageanalysis(lossestimation).Thehazardanalysismodelincludesthespatialvariationinflooddepthandvelocityusingfrequency,discharge,andgroundelevation.Theoutputsfromtheseanalysesareusedtodeterminestructuralandeconomicdamagethroughtheuseofvulnerabilitycurves.Reportsandmapsarethefinaloutputsfromthemodelforusers.Thefloodhazardmodulemodelsbothriverineandcoastalfloods.Afloodhazardistheresultoftherelationshipbetweendepthoffloodingandtheannualchanceofinundationtothatdepth(FEMA2007).Floodhazardisdefinedasthechancethatacertainmagnitudeoffloodingisexceededinanygivenyear(FEMA2007).Theprimaryfactorsthatcontributetofloodlossesarewaterdepth,durationandvelocityinthefloodplain.TheHAZUSMHFloodModelcanbeusedtoestimatefloodlossesduetodepthofflooding.Flashfloodsarenotincludedinthemodelscapability.Floodwarningispossibletointegrateintheanalysisasawhatifscenario,whichusesDaycurves(a

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representationoftherelationshipbetweenleadtimeanddamagereduction)fromtheU.S.ArmyCorpsofEngineersapproach(USGS2006;EPA2004).SomedifferentaspectsofHAZUSMHshownintheUserManualoftheApplicationarehighlightedtoillustratehowHAZUSMHcanbeused(FEMA2007):

hasthecapabilityfor3levelsofanalysis:1. WorkswithembeddeddatafromtheHAZUSMHsoftware,2. Usestheinputofrecentanddetaileddataforspecificanalysis,and3. Adjustsexistingmodelsinthesoftware.Inthisresearchthislevelof

analysisisnotused. offersenoughflexibilitysupporttheevaluationofhazardtypesnotincluded

asmodelsinthecurrentsoftwarebyusing,forexample,theexistingGISfunctionsorusingprobabilityorhistoricaldata;

offers5stepsfordoingriskassessmentconcludingwithlossestimationandmitigationoptions(usuallynotincludedinriskassessments).These5stepswereshowninFigure2.ThefiveStepsshowninFigure2showhowHAZUSMHisorganizedandthebasicstepsoneshouldfollowtogetthedesiredoutputs.CurrentHAZUSMHcapabilitiesincludecalculationsofexposureandtheuseofspecialtoolstodolevel2andlevel3analysis.Toolsusedforestimatinglosseshavechangedovertime,thereforeitisimportanttofollowandupgradethesoftwareaccordingtothelatestversionreleased.ForthecasestudydevelopedinthisresearchaLevel1Analysisisused.

Table3showstheHazusFloodModelattributesforthislevelofanalysis.Table3HAZUSMHFloodModelAttributesforLevel1Analysis

Hazard DigitalTerrainorElevationModel(DEM) typicallyUSGS30meterDEM.FloodModelusesdefaulthazarddata(HydrologicUnitCodesandaccumulationmethodology)todevelopapproximatestreamcenterlines.USGSregressionequationsandgagerecordsusedtodeterminedischargefrequencycurves.

Inventory HAZUSdefaultdata.Censusblocks dataallocationofviastatisticalanalysis,andbroadassumptionsforfirstfloorheight(foundationdistributions)Agricultureproducts,vehicles,essentialfacilities,sometransportationandutilityfacilities.

DamageCurves BroadregionaldefaultcurvesbasedonFIAorUSACEdepthdamagecurves.Libraryofcurvesavailableforuserselection.Usermaycreatetheirownfunctionusinglibrarycurvesasguides.

DamageEstimation Areaweighteddamageestimatesbasedonthedepthoffloodingwithinagivencensusblock.Lossesdevelopedforgeneralbuildingstock,essentialfacilities,vehicles,agriculturalproducts,selecttransportationandutilityfeatures.

DirectLoss/Impacts Costofrepair/replacement,shelterneeds,temporaryhousing,vehicles,crop&livestocklosses.

InducedLosses Debrisdevelopedfromdirectdamagetobuildings(floorareasfromthegeneralbuildingstock).

IndirectLoss/Impacts Sectorialeconomicimpacts.

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ContinueTable3.TypicalApplications Floodmitigation/regulatorypolicymaking,regional,state,federallevels

PrefeasibilitystudiesRealtimeemergencyresponsewithnowarningPreliminaryplanning,zoningdevelopment

Source:ModifiedfromHAZUSMHApplicationFloodManual(FEMA2007).ALevel1analysisusingdefaultdatainvolvesagreatdealofuncertaintyassociatedwiththelossestimate.Thistransfersagreaterresponsibilityforinterpretingresultstoexperts.Figure4summarizesthepossiblelossesincludedintheanalysisoutput.

Figure4Level1AnalysisSummarizedOutputExample

Source:HAZUSMHApplicationDVDFloodManual(FEMA2007).

Step1:IdentifyHazardsStep1inHAZUSMHistoidentifyhazards,whichincludesdefiningtheregionforstudy,creatingamapforthearea,andidentifyingthehazard.Consequentlytheoutputsarethestudyregion,abasemap,andalistofhazardsofinterest.ChoosetheDVDfortheregionselectedtobeanalyzed.Inthiscase,theareaselectedisSeafordinthesouthernpartoftheStateofDelaware.Theregionisidentifiedasasinglejurisdictionarea.Thestudyareamapshouldincludeabiggerregiontohelpdevelopsolutionsthatarenotconstrainedduetothesmallorlimitedarea.However,

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becauseHAZUSMHincludesseveralcalculationfunctions,asmallerareawillgiveresultsinasmalleramountofprocessingtime,andavoiderrorsduetoheavyprocessingdemands.ThisisveryimportantwhenincludingtheresultsfromHAZUSMHinthemodelinSTELLAbecauseitimpactsinthequalityofsupportfordecisionmaking.PuttheDVDforthechosenregioninthecomputer;thishelpsruntheprogramwithnofurtherrequestsfordatasourceaccessinput.OpeningtheHAZUSMHsoftware,choosecreateanewregionandfollowthesesteps:

>next,nameanddescribetheregion,ifdesired>next,selectahazardmodule>next,selectanaggregationlevel(State,County,CensusTrack,Census

Block)(IftheDVDROMcontainingtheinventorydatafortheStateselectedisnotavailablepriortotheselectionofthecountyarea,arequestforloadingtheDVDwillcomeupinthescreen.Censusblocksarethesmallestgeographicunitforthismethodology,generallyboundedbystreets,streamsandstatisticalentities(i.e.metropolitanarea,censustracts).Censusblockaredefinedtobeashomogeneousaspossibleintermsofincome,populationandothercharacteristics.Independentoftheaggregationlevelchosenthefloodmodelresultsarecomputedatthecensusblocklevel,notaffectingtheresolutionofresults.)

>next,selecttheStatebyusingthedropdownarroworbyusingtheshowmapandclickingonthedesiredplaces)

>next,selectacountyorcounties>next,selectcensustracksfromthelistorfromthemap>nextorselectiondone.

Apromptshowsthattheregionwascreatedsuccessfully,andthatnowitistimetoopenaregion>SelectaRegion(theonecreatedwiththenamegiven)>next>finish.TheGISsoftwarefromESRIstartstoprocessanddisplaysthemap,buttheinterfaceisspecificfortheHAZUSMHsoftware.Forthisresearch,Figure5isthedefinedregionfortheanalysis.

Figure5RegionCreatedtoDoAnalysesinHAZUSMHSource:CreatedusingHAZUSMH(FEMA2007).

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Thenexttasksaretocreatethebasemap,andchecktheGeographicCoordinateSystem,DatumandUnitsusedbyHAZUS.Theseareimportantdetailsformatchingupwiththeotherdetaileddatathatcanbeaddedtotheanalysiswiththepropermatchingscaleandanalysis,notonlyprojectionsontheflyenabledbyArcGISArcInfo.Theseprojectionsare:

GCS_North_American_1983, D_North_American_1983, Degree.

Inthiscase,iftheavailablecomplementarydatatobeintegratedintoHAZUSisinanotherCoordinateSystem,thelayersmustbeprojectedtothatspecification.TheadditionalavailabledatatocomplementtheanalysisinHAZUSMHforDelawareforthestudyincludetheShapefileforbridgesandthecenterlinegivenbyDelDOT,andthedatadownloadedfromDataMIL.However,thiscasestudyusestheexistinginventorydatainHAZUSMHandconsiderstheroaddatafromDataMILtoanalyzeandvalidatetheoutputsformitigationstrategiesdevelopedinHAZUSMH.Thisdatasetisclippedtoproperlymatchwiththeotherdatasets.TheclipprocessisthesameasinArcInfoundertheAnalysisToolsinArcToolbox.TheenhancedareaisshowninFigure6.ThisadditionaldatanotintegratedintoHAZUSMH,isjustbroughtinanddisplayed,andisnotusedintheanalysisforriskassessment.

Figure6BaseMapbuiltinHAZUSMHforSeafordAreaStudy

Thenexttaskistoidentifythehazardtypefortheimpactassessment.TheparticulareventonwhichtheanalysesarefocusingisonethatoccurredonJune25,2006.Thiseventwasofthescaleofa100yearflood.TheSeafordfloodisclassifiedasriverineflooding.Riverinefloodingischaracterizedbytheaccumulationofrunofffromrainfallorsnowmeltsuchthatthevolumeofflowexceedsthecapacityofwaterwaychannels(FEMA2004),withwaterspreadingoutovertheadjacentland.Theflowisdownstream,forwhichinundation,duration,andvelocitydependsonseveralfactorsincludingtopographyandstormcharacteristics.ThespecificfloodunderinvestigationofJune2006canbecharacterizedasshowninTable4.

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Table4HazardsIdentificationforWorkingwithHAZUSMH

PotentialHazard

Hazardof

Interest

Description SourceofInformation

RiverineFlood

RiverineFlood

On6/25/06a100year floodoccurred duetoahugeamountofrainfall(12inchesinsomeareas)whichcausedseriousdamageanddestructiontoroadsandbridgeinfrastructure(49roadnetworkpointsinSussexCounty).The49identifiedpointsconsistedof:28roads(segments)withhighwater,6roadclosures,2washedoutbridges,12roadfailures,1sinkhole.Laterinspectionsshowed9bridgeswithmajorproblems(i.e.replacestructures,flowinfilltorestorestreambedunderthebridge).Minorbridgesproblemsincludedrepairsoferodedembankments,andfillandriprapreplacement.Floodelevationwas30feet.StateofEmergencydeclaredat2:30PM6/26/2006.Seafordislocatedat383841N,753658W(38.644654,75.616107).

DelDOT TMCandotherSectors,DEOS,DataMil,SpatLab

Source:ModifiedfromHowToGuideWorksheet11(FEMA2004).Table4isasimplifiedversionoftheWorksheet11intheHAZUSMHguide(FEMA2004)thatfacilitatestheimplementationoftasksgeneratingoutputsfortheriskassessmentprocess.ThenextworksheetinHAZUSMHisahazardoreventsummarydescription,whereamatchismadebetweenthehazardidentifiedbydecisionmakersandthehazardtobeusedinfurtheranalysis.TheworksheetisshowninTable5.Heretheavailableinformationrelativetotheriskofeachregionalhazardisused.Asthishazardhasbeenspecifiedforthiscasestudy,onewouldcompletecolumnA(decisionmakers)andB(technicians/researchers)withthesamehazard:flood(riverine).Table7completestheadditionofrelevant/historicinformation.Thefloodeventsselectedfromhistoricalavailabledataincludedinthistableexcludedeventsclassifiedascoastalfloodsbutincludedseverestormevents.Table5HazardIdentificationandCharacterizationA B Hazard Hazard Years No.of

EventsImpacts

(2006US$)AvailableDataSources

andMaps Flood

(Riverine)Flood(Riverine)

1962to2006

4 #126 $21,391,487#1017$8,907,958#1205$3,721,100#1654$370,00040familiestemporarilyhomeless.

FEMADisasterResearchResultsforSussexCounty(2007).PERIPresidentialDisasterDeclarations(2007).WBOCNews(Parsons2006).

Source:modifiedfromHowToGuide(FEMA2004).Sourcesofinformationforthistablearevaried.TheimpactindollarsofeachdeclareddisasterispublicinformationavailableatFEMAswebsite.However,thisvaluedoesnotreflectthetotalamountgrantedbecauseinpracticedamageassessmentbyFEMA

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techniciansincludesafieldvisittocheckthemostdamagedsitesandingeneral,only30%ofthevaluespecifiedbylocalengineersisawarded.TohaveaFederaldisasteraneventmustcauseaminimumofUS$1millionindamage.InthissenseonecouldassumethattherewasaroundUS$3millionindamagetothetransportationinfrastructureatthisparticularevent.Newsmediaalsoprovidesinformation.Forexample,theimageinFigure7showsthefloodimpactonabridgeinthecasestudyarea.

Figure7FloodImpactonBridgeonrouteUS13ASource:ImageinWBOC(Parsons2006).

TheothertableusedintheHAZUSHowToguideforthefloodanalysisisshowninasimplifiedviewinTable6.ThehazardofinterestisconsistentwiththechoicemadeinTable4.Table6IdentificationofRequiredHazardDataforLevel1AnalysisHazardofInterest(Table3)

HazardData/MapRequirement

LocalDataStatusCriteriaRequiredFormat(ArcViewrequired)

RequiredCoordinateSystem(Lat/Long

required)

ReadyforHAZUSMH

Flood

FloodZoneMaps DigitalElevationModel BaseFloodElevation

Source:modifiedfromHAZUSMHHowToGuideWorksheet21(FEMA2004).

Step2:ProfileHazardsStep2profilesthehazards.HeretheinformationrelatedtofloodingthatisprovidedbyHAZUSMHisusedtoassessrisk.ThehistoriceventdataforthefloodisnotprovidedbyHAZUSMH,butitprovidesstreamgaugedatashowinghighwatermarksreachedinpastfloodsnotrelatedtotheyear.Floodzonemapscanhelpfloodanalysisbymappingfloodingproneareasaccordingtodifferentcategoriesofevents.Thishelpsdefiningthechancethataparticularfloodcanoccuratagivenlocationconsideringrainfallorlevee/damfailureforexample.

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AdatagapanalysesconsidersthedatagivenandthedatasourcesrequiredforcompletingthedataforanalysesinHAZUSMH.SincefloodingisoneofthemodeloptionsinHAZUSMH,andamultihazardanalysisisnotneeded,thereisnoneedtoobtainothermapsofcharacteristicsofotherhazardtypesnotincludedinthissoftwarepackage.Possibleothertypesofdataincludewrittenprofilesinsteadofmaps.TheanalysisprocessfortheriverinefloodhazardisshowninTable7.Table7HAZUSRiverineFloodHazardAnalysisProcess

Action ResultsDefineTerrain InputDigitalElevationModel(DEM)CreateNewScenario

SelectReachesHydrologicAnalysisComputeFloodHazard(hydraulicsanalysis)forsuite,specificreturnperiod,specificdischarge,andannualizedreturnperiods.

DevelopFlooddepthgrid

OptionalhazardanalysisPerformWhatifLeveeAssessment,FlowRegulation,and/orVelocityGrid

Source:modifiedfromHAZUSMHApplicationDVDFloodManual(FEMA2007).Beforedefiningtheterrain,gotoHazardmenu>FloodHazardType>Riverineonly>OK.ThishelpsdefinethecorrectDigitalElevationModel(DEM)andenablesthemenuitemsneededtosupportthehazardselected.TheDEMcoversboththestudyregionandallthewatershedsthatintersectthatstudyregion.Afterthisastreamnetworkneedstobedevelopedbeforeanyothermenuitemisenabled.IntheHAZUSMHguideAppendixD,JobAid21(FEMA2004),inthecolumnforflood(riverine),thereistheindicationofcomplementarydatafortheanalysesinHAZUSMH.Inourcasestudy,thesecomplementarydataaretheUSGSDigitalElevationModel(DEM)forthewatershedofSussexCountySeaford.TherearedifferentwaysforgettingUSGSDEMdata.OnewayisthroughtheGeoCommunity(USGS2007),whereaftersubscribingonecandownloaddataforfree.TheHAZUSMHsoftwarehasapromptthatshowsthepathtoobtainingthenecessarydatasetfromUSGS.HoweverthebestdatasourceforthestudyareaforthisresearchistheelevationmodelfromtheSpatialAnalysisLaboratory(SpatLab)atUniversityofDelaware.Thedatawithspecificcoordinatesiswhatisused.TogetanddownloadthecorrectdataintoHAZUSMH,itsimportanttofindthespecificationsforit.TointegrateaDEMclicktheHazardmenu>UserData.IfthedatasetisnotthecorrectDEMforintegrationintoHAZUSMH,theerrormessageshowninFigure8appears.

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Figure8DEMErrorMessageinHAZUSMH

Source:HAZUSMHsoftware(FEMA2007).ThiserrormessagehelpstheusertofindtheproperDEM.TheintegrationofdatadoesnotoccurasasimpletransferofdatabyclickingonaselectedlayerinArcCataloganddroppinginHAZUSMH.ThisprocessdoesnotenoughinformationfortheHAZUSMHsoftwaretorecognizethelayerandincludeitintheanalyses.InthedialogboxforaddingaDEMintoHAZUSMH,clickonthebuttonatthebottomofthedialogboxDeterminerequiredDEMextent.ThisbuttonopensadialogboxwiththeinstructionsforgettingthecorrectDEMfromUSGSasshowninFigure9.Followtheinstructions.

Figure9InstructionsforObtainingSpecificDEMforHAZUSMH

Source:HAZUSMHsoftware(FEMA2007).TheDEMfilespecificationsdownloadedfromUSGSareshowninFigure10.

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Figure10NewDEMforSeafordArea

Source:DEMDialogBoximagefrom(USGS2008).ThecorrectDEMrecognizedbythesystemandintegratedintoHAZUS_MHisshowninFigure11.Asonecansee,theDEMcoversabiggerareathantheselectedspecifiedbasemap.

Figure11DEMIntegratedintoHAZUSMH

Afterdownloadingthedata,thetasksaretogenerateastreamnetwork,specifythedrainageareaofatleast1(one)squaremile,andselectascenariotodothefloodcasestudy.ThestreamnetworkisgeneratedbyusingaDEMoutputfromtheFlowAccumulationfunction.Thisflowaccumulation,asexplainedbyESRIArcGISDesktopHelp(ESRI2007a),isthenumberofupslopecellsthatflowintoeachcell.

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InHAZUSMHthereisaspecificfunctionforgeneratingastreamnetwork,whichisdoneonetimeonlytoestablishtherivernetworkidentityforallfollowingscenarios(FEMA2007).AdrawbackinthesystematthispointisthatifyoustarttointegratetheDEMandyoudonotcompletetheothertasksforgeneratingthestreamnetwork,evenaftersaving,turningoffandlatercomingbacktocontinue,theinterruptionmaydisablesometools.ThisproblemcanbesolvedbyintegratingtheDEMagainintoHAZUSMHsoftware.Usingthesoftware,ontheHazardmenuselectDevelopStreamNetwork>put1.0fordrainage>OK.ThisprocessisshowninFigure12.

Figure12BuildingStreamNetworkinHAZUSMH

Source:completedin(FEMA2007).Bydefiningthedrainageareaasahighersquaremileage(e.g.,30squaremiles),thestreamsarefarfromeachotherinthisareaandthisisnotappropriateforthisresearch.The1squaremiledrainagearearesultsinastreamnetworkhighlydefinedwithinthetotallandarea.Thewaterdrainsintoanygivenreachwiththeexceptionofthestartingnodeofthereach(whichisthedownstreamnodeofthepriorreach).Confirmtheprocessbyclickingyesinthenextdialogboxthatcomesup.Thetimerequiredforthisdialogboxtoappeardependsonthesizeoftheareaselected.Ifitisalargearea,itmaytakealongertimetofinishtheprocesstodeveloptheStreamNetwork.WhenfinishedclickOKontheprompttoconfirmsuccessonbuildingtheStreamNetwork.ThesoftwarethengeneratesalayercalledReaches.Selectascenariotodothefloodcasestudy.Hazardmenu>Scenario>New>OK.Thisscenariodefinesthespecificstreamreachesandthehydrologicandhydrauliccharacteristicsincludeinoneanalysisrun.Awindowopensforgivingatitletothenewscenario,andifdesired,spaceforabriefadditionaldescription.Thisscenarionamemustnothavespaces.AnewdialogboxshowsupasshowninFigure13.

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Figure13DefiningtheScenarioforAnalysisinHAZUSMH

Source:completedin(FEMA2007).ClickAddtoselection.Goovertheareayouwanttobeanalyzed,clickanddragthemousetotheextensionofareayoudesire,oruseselectfeaturestooltodefinespecificstreams.ClickSaveselection>OK.ItgeneratesanewlayercalledChosenReachesshowninFigure14inred.

Figure14DefiningAreaforFurtherAnalyses

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TheoptionSaveAsunderScenarioallowstheusertoskipthehazardanalysistorundifferentparametersintheInventoryorAnalysismenu(i.e.modifyingfunctions/parametersintheDamage&LossEstimateAnalysistocompareresultsbetweenscenarios).Thissavestime.AlsotoreruntheAnalysis,preservepreviousresultswithoutduplicatingaStudyRegion,andgeneratesnewresultsfortheotheranalysiswhilemaintainingoldresults.TheSaveAsworksforanopenscenarioonly.Namethescenarioandaddadescription.Tocontinuedoinganalyses,clickHazardmenu>Riverine>Hydrology.HAZUSMHanalyzesthedischargefrequencyrelationshipforallofthosereachesdefinedinthecasestudy.ThisiswhenHAZUSMHusesthestreamgagedata,andincludestopographicparameters.Thisdemandstimeforcalculationsanditispossibletohavecomputermemorylimitproblems.Waitforprocessingtofinish.Thisanalysisisimportanttoperformfrequencyrelatedfloodanalysessuchasthe100yearreturnperiod,ortheannualizedloss.Iftheanalysesareforspecificreachesdischarges,skipHydrologyandgototheDelineateFloodplain(Riverine)menu>SingleDischarge.Oncethehydrologicanalysisisfinished,selecttheanalysistypeasshowninFigure15.

Figure15OptionforRiverineAnalysesType

Source:choseninHAZUSMHsoftware(FEMA2007).Hazard>Riverine>DelineateFloodplain>SingleReturnPeriod.Failureofthesoftwarecanbeduetosomebugs,forexample,thisoneshowninFigure16.

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Figure16HAZUSMHWarningandSuggestiontoEnableSoftwareOperation

Source:HAZUSMHsoftware(FEMA2007).Afterfixingtheproblem,andgettingthesoftwarerunning,thisparticularcasestudytookmorethan2hourstoprocesstheanalysesusinganIntelCPUT25002GHzprocessorasshowninFigure17.

Figure17TimetoCompleteSingleReturnAnalysisSource:HAZUSMHsoftware(FEMA2007).

ThisanalysisgeneratedalayernamedBoundaryPolygontogetherwithalayercalledRPD100inthemapshowninFigure18.UseSaveAstokeepcurrentresults.

Figure18SingleReturnPeriodMap

TheotheranalysiscompletedwasforAnnualLosses.ThisanalysisgeneratedanewmapwithaBoundaryPolygonlayerandanotherlayercalledRPD500showninFigure19.ThelayoutisapredeterminedformatintheHAZUSMHsoftware.

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Figure19AnnualLossMap

Source:Maplayoutpredeterminedandincludedin(FEMA2007).Table8showsabriefdescriptionforthehazardanalyzestypesundertheDelineateFloodplainsubmenu.Theanalysisforhazardsdefinedasriverineiscompletedusingtheseanalyses.Table8TypesofHazardsAnalysesSingleReturnPeriod Resultantgridwillbeasinglereturnintervalforallreachesselectedora

singlegridofmixedreturnintervalsfortheselectedreachesandtheselectedyears.

ReturnPeriods10,50,100,200,500

Calculateflooddepthsandfloodplainsforeachofthesereturnperiodfloodyearsonallstreamreaches.Floodmodelproducesasingle10yearflooddepthgridfortheselectedreachesduplicatingtheprocessfortheotherfourreturnintervals.

SingleDischarge Allowsyoutoinputanticipatedstreamdischargelevelsforeachstreamreach.Bridgesrequirespecialattentionusingthistypeofanalysis.

AnnualizedLoss Calculateasuiteoffloodstobeusedlaterinanannualizedlosscalculation.CompletedannualizedlossenablesthismenuitemontheAnalysismenu.

Source:basedonHAZUSMHsoftware(FEMA2007).Furtheranalysistohelpinmitigationplanning,aretheWhatifscenarios,whichincluderiverinelevee,riverineflowregulation,andriverinevelocity.TheriverineleveetoolinHAZUSMHaddsleveealignment,attributestheleveewithalevelofprotectionand,determinestheeffectsofaleveeonflooddepthswithintheunprotectedportionofthefloodplain(FEMA2007).Tousetheleveetool,zoomintotheareawhereonewantstodrawalevee.GotoHazardmenu>Riverine>Levee>clicktheDrawbutton.Chooseagridonwhichtodraw

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theleveealignment.Crossthealignmentoverthefloodplaintwice,enterrecurrenceinterval(inyears)correspondingtothelevelofprotectionprovidedbythelevee>OK.Figure20showsahypotheticalleveelinealignmentinanupsidedownwhiteushapeintheleft,andthenewmapaftercalculationsontheright.ThemodelintegratestheleveeintotheDEMandrecomputesthefloodhazardforthescenario.TheLeveeanalysisonlyworksforriverinehazardsbasedonaspecificreturnperiod,whichmeansAnnualLossesscenariowillnotrunwiththeLeveeanalysis.

Figure20WhatifLeveeProtectionScenario

TheplacefortheLeveewaschosentocoincidewiththeareawhereUS13passes.Thisareaappearsvulnerable.Thefloodwaternowreachesdifferentdepthsandcoversaslightlydifferentarea.TheHAZUSMHdefaulthydrologicanalysesareappliedtounregulateddrainageareas.TheotheranalysisprovidedinHAZUSMHisforriverineflowregulation,whichcanbethroughdiversionsand/orstorage,whichchangesthefloodfrequencycurvesdownstream.Thetoolforflowregulationincorporatestheflowregulationinthedownstreameffectsbymodifyingtheunregulatedfloodfrequencycurveatspecificlocationsbyenteringoneormorepairsofrecurrenceintervalsanddischargevalues.Thedownstreamreachesaffectedareidentified,andthecorrespondingfloodfrequencycurvesaremodifiedasappropriate,andthusthefloodhazardisrecomputed.Tousethistool,gototheHazardmenu>Riverine>FlowRegulation>clickDrawbuttonandidentifythelocationofaregulatingstructure(i.e.floodcontrolreservoir)>clickApplybutton.Figure21showstheselectedplaceforflowregulationandallthereturnperiodanddischargeoptionsfordoingtheanalysis.Thisusesthealgorithmforfindthedrainageareaupstreamofthatlocationanddefinestheunregulatedfloodfrequencycurve(FEMA2007),plotsacurve,andatableofrecurrenceintervalsandassociateddischargevalues.Enterthereturnperiodforthedischargeoftheregulatingstructure>OK.Yesinthenextdialogbox.

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Figure21WhatifFlowRegulationScenarioProcess

Thisfunctiongeneratedanotherbug.Figure22showstheerrormessageandsolutiontotheproblem.Aftersolvingtheproblem,continuetothenextanalysis.

Figure22WarningandSuggestiontoRunRiverineFlowRegulationAnalysis

Source:warningdialogboxin(FEMA2007).ForeachWhatifscenario,doaspecificsaveas.Makesuretohavethesinglereturnperiodtodoeachofthenewwhatifscenarios.Thisavoidsrunningintoerrors.Figure23showstheFlowRegulationmapoutput.

Figure23WhatifFlowRegulationMap

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AnotherpossibleanalysisinHAZUSMHistheriverineflowvelocity.Floodwatervelocitycanincreasethehazardbycarryinglargeamountsofsedimentanddebris,impactingstructures,anderodingsoilfromstreambanksandunderfoundations(FEMA2007).Thevelocityanalysisincludesestimationofthespatialdistributionofthefloodwatervelocity.GotoHazardmenu>Riverine>Velocity>Yes.Figure24showstheresultingmapwiththedifferentfloodwatervelocityestimation.

Figure24FloodwaterVelocityEstimationMap

UndertheHazardmenuthereisaQuickLookoption.Thisquicklyproducesaroughestimateofflooddamages,withoutgeneratingastreamnetworkorDelineateFloodplain,byenteringanticipatedflooddepthsfortheareaselected.Then,basedontheexistinginfrastructureinthisarea,thisoptionestimatesapproximatedamages.Thiscrudemethodofanalysisislimitedastheestimates:

arebasedonlyontheGeneralBuildingStock(GBS), areonlyappropriateforsmallareaswithsimilarelevations, donotuseanytopology(DEM), donotverifytheveracityoftheflooddepthsinput,and assumesthatlocationswithsimilarelevationshavethesamedepth

offlooding.Thelimitationscanproduceincorrectresults.Thereforethisfunctionwasnotusedforthecasestudy.TheEnhancedQuickLookanalysisoptionworksinasimilarwaytothebasicQuickLookfunction(usingapolygontorepresentsthefloodplainboundarythatisthenusedtoestimatetheflooddepth)thisfunctionwasalsonotused.

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Forlevelofanalysis2or3,additionaldataisrequired.Choosingthelevelofanalysisrequiresconsiderationofthefeasibilityofsuchaneffortdependingonschedule,resourcesavailable,andendusesofdata.ForLevel2Analysis,notonlyistheElevationModelneeded,butalso,additionallocalfloodandterraindata.Thisadditionaldataincludesfloodproneareas,andupdatedinventorydatafor1stfloorelevationdataforbuildings.Thistypeofdetailedanalysisisbetterusedforsmallareas(projectmanagementlevel).Aspecifictool,theFloodInformationTool(FIT)isneededifthedataavailableisotherthanDEM(triangulatedirregularnetworkTIN,orcontourlines).TheFITismeanttofacilitatethepreparationoffloodriskassessmentbyautomaticallyprocessingtheflooddatatoevaluateexposureanddeveloplossestimatesfortheinventory.Allthesehazardanalysessofararemeanttohelpunderstandrealevents.Inthecasestudy,thefocusisonthefloodeventthatoccurredonJune25,2006inSeafordarea.Therefore,tohelporganizeandcommunicatehazardinformationtothetargetaudience,eachdifferenthazardmusthaveseparateworksheetssuchastheoneshowninTable9.Forthiscasestudy,wherethereisonlyonetypeofhazard,onlyoneworksheetiscompleted.Hazardareamaps,graphicillustrationsandhistogramsofpasteventsmustbeattachedtothistable.Whendoingamultihazardanalysisforaspecificareaand/orcommunity,thewaytoprioritizehazardsusingaqualitativeapproachproposedbyHAZUSMH,istoweightthefactorsdifferently,assigningaratingforeachfactorfrom0(low)to5(high).Thefactorsconsideredare:frequency,duration,severity,intensity.TherankingsystemmustbespecifiedaccordingtothedifferentlevelsasshownintherainbowfigureinTable9.Table9ProfileHazardforCaseStudyHAZARD:FloodSeafordDE

SummaryofRiskFactorsRankoffactorsforlocalprofile Periodofoccurrence:June25,2006

Severityscore:high Probabilityofevent:1%(100yearflood)History:(similarevents)40 Warningtime:1to2daysverycertain,10days

trends.Vulnerability:(Guessing)75 Majorcontributor(s):Lowelevation,Eastcoast

State,MajorriverMaximumThreat:80 Riskofinjury?Yes,andriskofdeathProbability:80 Potentialforfacilitiesshutdown?Yes.Majorroads

for30daysormoreTotalscore:275 Percentofaffectedpropertiesthatmaybe

destroyedorsuffermajordamage:guessing10%oflocalroadnetwork

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ContinueTable9.FLOOD(HAZARD)PROFILE(DATA)

BackgroundandLocalConditionsDelawarehasmoderateriskforsnowfall,hasmorethanjustafewbutnotfrequentriskforthunderstorms,hasmoderatetolowriskforwind,andsomeriskforhurricanes.Theoverallcompositeriskismoderate.SussexCountyinDelawareisalongwithotherU.S.countieswiththegreatestnumberoffederaldisasterdeclarations(USGS2006).Seafordislocatedat383841N,753658W(38.644654,75.616107),insouthwesternDelaware.Thisareahaslowelevation,pronetoflooding.Seaford'sweatherhasamildsubtropicalclimateconsistingofhot,humidsummersandmildwinters,moderatedbytheAtlanticOcean.CommontohavefloodingeventoccurringalsointheMarylandneighboringarea,havingtosharesolutionsfortraffic.Localtransportationinfrastructureusuallyingoodandfairconditions,thetrafficLevelofServiceisAtoC.Arealikelytobeheavilyimpactedbyclimatechangeandglobalwarming.

HistoricFrequencyandProbabilityofOccurrenceFloodingisthemostcommondisastertypeintheU.S.andforSussexCounty.Consideringsimilareventssincethe1960sregisteredasaFederalDisasterDeclaration,thenumberofeventsare4.Earliereventslackeasilyaccessiblesourcesofinformation.Table5showstheeventsandtheirrelateddamages.Figure25showstherelatedgraphconsideringthetimetrendamongFederalDisasterDeclarations(Otherdifferentandminoreventshavetakenplaceinotheryears).

SeverityConsideringotherareasintheU.S.areas,Delawareisconsideredamoderateriskarea.However,SussexCounty,Delawareistheareathatmostfrequentlyexperiencesdisasters,whichmatches(onaparwithotherareasthathavereceivedaboutthesamenumberofFederalDisasterDeclarations)(USGS).InthissensetheriskforFloodingcanbeconsideredhigh.AccordingtothefloodedareamapdevelopedinArcGISandstudiesaboutglobalwarming,eventslikethe100yearstormandothermorerareevents(i.e.500yearstorm)canincreaseinfrequencyandstrength.

HistoricLossesandImpactsGreatdamagehasoccurredtotransportationinfrastructure,crops,buildings,andsomelossoflives(NOAA).The2006floodimpactslistforSeafordareaincludes:

damagetothepolicedepartmentsituatedinthecityofSeaford,andtheSeafordSchoolDistrictparkinglot,

barricadesandhighwatersignsemergencyrepairsandplacementintheTownofGeorgetown,totaling$1,905,

trafficcontrolandothersecuritymeasuresoftheDelawareStatePolice,totaling$9,822, roadandbridgerepairundertheresponsibilityoftheDelawareDepartmentofTransportation,

totaling$341,888,and roadrepairworkattheDelawareTechnicalandCommunityCollege,totaling$13,340.

DesignatedHazardAreasTheelevationprofilemapandthefloodedareamapdevelopedearlierusingArcInfoshowtheareasmostpronetoflooding.TheywerebuiltpriortothebasemapdevelopedinHAZUSMH.TheuseofHAZUSMHsoftwareistodoadeeperanalysisoftheproblem.

Source:basedonHAZUSMHHowToGuideWorksheet22(FEMA2004).ThisTable9showskeyinformationanddatathatislaterincludedinthemodelinSTELLA(e.g.,periodofoccurrence,probabilityofevent,facilityshutdown,4similarevents,costofrepairforroadsandbridges).STELLAallowstheinclusionofqualitativeinformationtobuildtheconnectiontoquantitativedata,althoughallvariablesneedamathematicalrepresentation.TheuseofqualitativeandquantitativeinformationinSTELLAisincludedinthedocumentthatshowsthedevelopmentofthemodelfortheCIRDSS.HAZUSMHdealswiththephysicalandgeographicalconditionofthe

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infrastructurebycalculatingdamageandoverallimpacts.Table9putsinperspectivetheeventfocusofanalysisandhelpsunderstandthescopeoftheproblem,plusgivinginsightsaboutwheretoallocateresourcesaspartofmitigationstrategyoptionsforthetransportationinfrastructure.Tohaveabetterapproachtotheproblemofdamagedinfrastructureanddisruptedtrafficflowisimportanttoconsiderconditionandperformancemeasurestogether,thisrelatingtotheconceptofresiliencenetwork(systemmustwork).TheHAZUSMHoutputshelptoidentifyareasinneedofrebuildingfromtheperspectiveofrecoveryand/ormitigation.HAZUSMHbetteraddressesissuesrelatedtoinfrastructurephysicalcondition,whichmaps,calculationsandreportsdemonstratetheproblem.Forperformanceintermsoftrafficflowdisruption,thereisnomechanisminplaceinthesoftwareatpresent.Recoveryfordamagedinfrastructureisunderstoodtobesimplestructuralrepairorrebuilding,andmitigationisunderstoodtobeinfrastructuresystemimprovementincludingreinforcement.Mitigationisthephaseinthedisastercyclewhichactivitiescanbedirectedtoprivilegeimprovementintheresilienceofinfrastructuresystems,thedesiredoutcomeofthepresentresearch.ThefollowingtablesandfiguresshownarethedocumentationthatcompletesthisCaseStudyHazardProfile.First,Table10showseventsofsimilarorigin,theyearstheyhappenandtheimpactforthespecificstudyregionofSeafordinSussexCounty.Table10SimilarFederalDisastersandDamagebetween1962and2006inSussexCounty

Events EventNumber Year Damage(US$Million)1 126 1962 21,391,4872 1017 1994 8,907,9583 1205 1998 3,721,1004 1654 2006 3,000,000

Figure25Figure25isaplotofthedatainTable10showingthedecreaseinvalueinmillionsofdollarsthroughtime.Thissuggeststhatpolicies,improvements,andlearningexperiencesareincreasingtheresilienceofSussexCounty,resultinginlessexposureandlessvulnerability.Alsothetimebetweendisastersseemstobedecreasing,whichmeansthatthechanceofexceedingthe100yearfloodelevationismorecommonthanthe1in100yearoccurrence.Thesehypotheseswarrantfurtherexploration.

Figure25FederalDisastersDamageGraphSussexDE

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Afteralltheseanalysesarefinishedforthehazard,thelossanalysisisundertakeninHAZUSMH.Forthestudyregionthecharacteristicsofthestructuresandpeopleareidentifiedandanalyzedforvulnerabilitytothefloodorfloods.TheHAZUSMHdefaultsprovidedamagefunctionstoestimatepercentdamagerelativetothedepthoffloodwaterasmeasuredfromthetopofthefirstfinishedfloorforriverinefloods(FEMA2007).Otherdamagefunctionscollectedordevelopedanalyzeimpactsonvehicles,bridges,andutilities.

Step3:InventoryofAssetsStep3intheHAZUSMHguideistoinventorytheassets.Thesearetheassetsthatcanbeimpactedbythehazardspecifiedearlier.Riskcombinesexposure,vulnerabilityandhazard.Theinformationanddocumentationaboutpopulation,structures,andlifelinesprovidedbyHAZUSMHmustbereviewedandcanbeusedforaLevel1analysis.Theinformationanddocumentationforotherlevelsofanalysismustbetailoredandcompleted,afteradatagapanalysis,andthenintegratedwiththeinformationintoHAZUSMH.Theoutputsforallthreelevelsofanalysisaretables,maps,updatedlocaldata,andlistsofdatasources.Analysisofnaturalhazardsincludestheverificationoflikelihoodofoccurrence,severity,andgeographiclocationoftheinventory(FEMA2004).Thisdataandinformationisusedtosupportlossestimatesandriskstudies.Thebasictermsusedintheguideforinventoryare:

Assethumandeveloped/naturalfeaturethathasvalue(i.e.people,buildings,lifelines);

Inventorythepopulation,lifelines,andotherassetsinthestudyregion;

Buildingsgeneraltypesincludinguserdefinedbuildingsandcriticalfacilities;

Lifelinessystemssuchastransportationandutility; Exposureaninventoriedassetpresentinahazardpronearea; Vulnerabilityhowmuchanassetisexposedorsusceptibletoa

hazard.HAZUSMHprovidesdetailedinventorydata,whicharerepresentedinthestudyregionmapsaspoints,lines,andpolygons.Thesefeaturesare(FEMA2004):

generalbuildingstock, essentialfacilities(i.e.hospitals,police,emergencyoperation

centers), hazardousmaterialfacilities, highpotentiallossfacilities(i.e.nuclearpowerplants,dams,military

installations),

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transportationlifelinesystems(i.e.air,road,rail,andwatersystems),

utilitylifelinesystems(i.e.potablewater,wastewater,oil,naturalgas,electricpower,communicationsystems),and

demographicdata.ThedatasourcesforeachcategoryusedinHAZUSMH,whichmustbereviewedforaccuracy,arefromorganizationssuchastheU.S.CensusBureau,theAmericanHospitalAssociation,andInfoUSA,Inc.NeededchangestothelocationincludingmodificationsandsupplementstothisandotherdatacanbedoneinHAZUSMH.Toaccessthedata,clickontheInventorymenu>TransportationSystems.Theinformationisintables,whichcanbeviewedinthemapthroughthemapfunctionatthebottomofthemenu.Figure26showstheinventorytableforHighwaySegments,andFigure27showsthemapfortheHighwaySegmentswiththespecificstudyareashowninred.Figure28showstheHAZUSMHHighwaySegmenttableinthetopandthecenterlinedatatableatthebottom.Takingacloselookatthetables,onecanseetheyhavedifferentcolumns,butoneimportantdetailinthedatacomingfromHAZUSMHisthecolumnforsegmentcost,whichisusedanalysisperformedbythemodelinSTELLA.

Figure26InventoryDataforHighwaySegmentsinHAZUSMH

Source:FEMA(2004)andHAZUSMHsoftware(FEMA2007).

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Figure27HighwaySegmentsintheHAZUSMHStudyAreaMap

Figure28RoadsTablesfromHAZUSMHSoftwareandDataMILCenterlineSource:HAZUSMHSoftwareandDataMIL(FEMA2007;UniversityofDelawareResearch

andDataManagementServices2008).ThedatainHAZUSMHfortheTransportationSystemsare:

Highwaysegments,bridges,andtunnels; Railsegments,bridges,tunnels,andfacilities;

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LightRailsegments,bridges,tunnels,andfacilities; Bus; Port; Ferry;and Airportfacilitiesandrunways.

ThedataprovidedinHAZUSMHareorganizedbycomponentclassificationbasedontheirvulnerabilitytofloodingdescribedintheTechnicalManual.TheFloodModeldoesnotaccountforfloodbornedebrisimpactortheloadsresultingfromfloodbornedebristrappedagainsttransportationfeaturessuchasbridges(FEMA2007).TheFloodModelcanestimatethelevelofdamageforthebridgenetworkandsubsequentfunctionalityofthebridges,buttheothertransportationcomponentslackthiscapabilityinthecurrentmodel.ThebridgebaselinedatabasewascompiledfromtheNationalTransportationAtlasandupdatedin2001.Theinventorydataincludedforanalysisaregeographicallocation,classification,andreplacementcostofsystemcomponents.AlthoughassessmentoflossesforhighwaysegmentsisnotavailableinthecurrentFloodModel,thebridgeapproachisusefulandtheestimateofthepercentdamageandtheprobabilityofbeingfunctionaldependingontheestimateddamagecanbeusedintheSTELLAmodel(FEMA2007).TheclassesofhighwaysystemsarepresentedinTable11.Table11FEMAsHighwaySystemClassificationFloodLabel GeneralOccupancy SpecificOccupancy HAZUSValuation

(1000s$)HRD1 HighwayRoads MajorRoads(1km4lanes) 10,000HRD2 HighwayRoads UrbanRoads(1km2lanes) 5,000HTU HighwayTunnel HighwayTunnel 20,000HWBM HighwayBridge MajorBridge 20,000HWBO HighwayBridge OtherBridge(includesallwood) 1,000HWBCO HighwayBridge OtherConcreteBridge 1,000HWBCC HighwayBridge ContinuousConcreteBridge 5,000HWBSO HighwayBridge OtherSteelBridge 1,000HWBSC HighwayBridge ContinuousSteelBridge 5,000

Source:(FEMA2007).ThedataprovidedbyHAZUSMHissufficienttocompleteariskassessment.AddingdatatoperformaLevel2or3analysesrequiresadatagapanalysis.Figure28servesasagoodstartfordatagapanalysisasthedifferentcolumnsshowthedataandhelptoidentifysources.Theothertasksforthisgapanalysisincludetheevaluationofschedule,resources,priorities,andneedsforlocalinventorydatacollection.TheroaddatadownloadedfromDataMILservesasthebackgroundforthemaptohelpwiththeresilienceanalysisandmitigationstrategydevelopment.Eventuallyforthislevelofanalysis,onemustaddfieldsandmakeassumptionsorcollectfieldinformationtoallowforfurtherriskassessment.

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OthertasksrelatedtotheDataTablesareeditingtoimproveinventories,importotherinventorydatatablesintoHAZUSMH,collectingdatausingInCAST(aFEMARiskAssessmentSystemtool),organizeandimportdatausingBITMH(aFEMARiskAssessmentSystemforbuildingdatasets).

Step4:EstimateLossesStep4inHAZUSMHestimateslosses.Thisstepinvolvesrunningthelossestimationmodelsandscenarios,andevaluatingthechosenhazardeventsandinventoryresultsforthespecificgeographiclocation.Theoutputsforlossestimatesaretables,maps,andsummaryreports.TheFloodWizardandRiskAssessmentToolalsoprovidesimilarresultswhenusedforAnalysisLevels2and3.).TheFloodWizardfacilitatesfloodriskassessmentforriverinefloodingevaluatingexposureanddoinglossestimatesforlargeextentsofarea(e.g.,countylevel),usingDEMandfloodplainboundaryinformation.TheRiskAssessmentToolproducestheriskassessmentoutputsforamultihazardregion(earthquake,flood,andhurricane).Thespecifictermsusedforlossestimationare(FEMA2004):

Lossstructural,content,andlossoffunction; Functionaldowntimeestimatedaveragetimeindaysforwhich

businessorservicesareunabletofunctionbecauseoflossesduetothehazardevent;

Displacementtimeaveragenumberofdaysoccupantsaredisplacedbecauseofdamageresultingfromthehazardincludingtimebuildingsoccupantsoperatefromatemporarylocation;

Functionlossfunctionaldowntimecosts+displacementtimecosts;

Casualtiesimpactsonhumansincludinginjuryanddeath; Returnperiodlossaveragelossoveracertainperiodoftimefor

allhazardevents.Thelossestimationresults(averageexpectedvalueperyear)areobtainedfordeterministicandprobabilisticscenariosinHAZUSMH.Theaveragevalueoflosscanhelpdecisionmakersplanningeffortstofocusonacosteffectivemannerfordevelopingprioritiesforaddressingnaturalhazards.Theaverageannualizedlossescanalsohelpidentifycosteffectivemitigationmeasures,whichcanproducesavingsintermsofavoidedlossesrecognizingbudgetaryissuesandconstraints.Theprobabilisticanalysesareusedtodevelopannualizedlossesandreturnperiodlossesestimationsofdamageandloss.Thestandardizedhazardoutputsestimatedamageandlosses(direct,induced,social,andbusinessinterruptions).Theanalysesconsiderthelikelihoodofoccurrenceofaspecificevent,itsresultinglossesandconsequences.Thelikelihoodestimatecanbebasedonbothstatisticsandhistorical

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information.HAZUSMHprocessingcapabilityaccountsforalimitedanumberofeventsperreturnperiod,specifically:

5floodevents, 7hurricanes,and/or 8earthquakes.

Thedeterministicanalysesarebasedonthelawsofphysics,andcorrelationsamongexperienceorteststopredictaparticularhazardscenariooutcome.Oneormoreworstcrediblepossiblescenarioscanbedeveloped,butthefrequencyofeventsmustbeevaluated.ThefunctionsusedtoestimatedamagecanbeseenfromtheAnalysismenu.ThecurrentAnalysismenuincludesDamageFunctions,RestorationFunctions,Parameters,3rdPartyModels,FloodWarning,andAnnualizedLoss.IncludedinDamageFunctionsareBuildings,EssentialFacilities,TransportationSystems,UtilitySystems,AgriculturalProducts,andVehicles.IncludedinRestorationFunctionsisEssentialFacilities.IncludedinParametersareDebris,Casualties,Shelter,Agricultural,DirectSocialLoss,andIndirectEconomicLoss.Includedin3rdPartyModelsthereareALOHA,MARPLOT,FLDWAV,andFloodView.ThesemodelsonlyworkwhenthepropertoolisdownloadedandinstalledtoworkwithHAZUSMH.TheTransportationSystemsdamagefunctiondialogboxonlyhasthestructuredamagefunctionwithnocontentsorinventory.ThetabsallowshiftingbetweenHighway,Railway,andLightRailfacilities.Thecurrentfloodmodelhasdamagefunctionsforbridgesonly,whicharebasedonstandardreturnperiods.Bridgescannotbeanalyzedusingdifferentreturnperiodsfordifferentreaches.TheDamageFunctionforTransportationSystemsincludescoefficientsforreturnperiodsfrom0to1000yearsasshowninFigure29.TheLibrarytabshowsfurtherdetailsabouteachitemintheOccupancycolumn,anditalsoallowsforaUserDefinedLibrary.

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Figure29DamageFunctionforTransportationSystemSource:HAZUSMHSoftware(FEMA2007).

Thedamageandlossfunctionsforinfrastructureconsiderthemostvulnerablesegmentstoinundationintermsofimpact.Thefunctionsidentifythefacilities/componentsthataremostexpensivetoreplaceorif/whendamagedresultsinanextendedclosuredisablingtheuseofthecriticalinfrastructurebythecommunity.Furthersubhazardsthatmayaffectlifelinecomponentsandthelevelofvulnerabilityincludeinundation,scour/erosion,anddebrisimpact/hydraulicloading.Examplesarebridges/foundationsthatarenotvulnerabletoinundation,buriedpipelinecrossingsthatarevulnerabletoscour,andbridgedecksthatarevulnerabletohydraulicpressure(FEMA2007).Beforedoinganyanalysisisimportanttoviewand/ormodifytheanalysisParameters.TheDebrismenuopensaneditabledialogboxallowingtheusertoviewthedefaultdebrisvalues,whichareestimatedbasedonthedepthoffloodingwithinthestructure,specificoccupancy,andifthefoundationhasafootingoraslab(FEMA2007).Therearethreemainclassificationsfordebris:finishes(i.e.,drywall,flooring,andinsulation),structure(i.e.,framing,walls,exteriorcladding),andfoundation(i.e.,concreteslab,concreteblockorotherfoundation).Foundationssubstantiallydamagedduetofloodingrequirethestructuretoberemoved.TheCasualtiesmenuopensaworddocumentthatprovidessomeguidanceonthenationalaverageforcasualtiesbecausethefloodmodeldoesnotprovideestimates.

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TheSheltermenuopensadialogboxwithmultipletabsallowingaccesstotheparametersthataffectthenumberofdisplaced/evacuatedpeopleandthenumberofpeoplethatneedshorttermsheltering.Thisanalysisassumesthatlocalauthoritieswillhavetimetoalerttheresidentsandevacuatethemfromtheareasthatwillflood.Thefloodmodeldoesincludeflashfloodingorlongdurationflooding.Themodelestablishestheflooddepthatwhichpeoplearenotallowedintooroutofthefloodedarea.Thishelpstothinkaboutlocalplansandaccesscontrols.Theevacuationbufferisaddedtothecurrentfloodplainpolygonincreasingtheareaoverwhichthetotaldisplacedpopulationisestimated(thatis,thepopulationwithinthefloodplainandthebuffer).Theutilityfactorstabisusedfordeterminingshorttermshelterneeds.Weightingfactorsallowsmodificationofthedemographiccharacteristics(i.e.,income,age,ethnicity,homeownership).Modificationfactorsareasubclassificationofweightingfactorstoplacemoreemphasisorincreasetheimportanceofsomefactors.TheAgriculturemenurequirestheflooddateinputinorderfortheanalysistorunproperly.Figure30showstheeventofJune25.

Figure30FloodDateinAgriculturalParameterforAnalysis

Source:completedin(FEMA2007).TheDirectEconomicparametermenuprovidesaccesstodefaultparameterscontrollingtheestimationofdirectdamagestothegeneralbuildingstockwithimpactonitswages,income,inventoryandthemaximumrestorationtime.TheDirectEconomicLossParametersincludeBusinessInventory,RestorationTime,andIncomeLossData(i.e.,rental,owneroccupied,wagesandcapital,recapturefactors).Theestimatesarebasedonthedemographicandbuildingsquarefootagedatabases.TheIndirectEconomicLossanalysisstartsbydefiningthetypeofanalysis.Thisdatareferstothepostfloodchangeinthedemandandsupplyofproducts,employment,andtaxrevenues.Thepotentialincreasedlevelsofimportsandexports,inventoriesforsupplyandproduct,andunemploymentratescanbespecified(FEMA2007).HAZUSMHdefaultssuggestnumbersforthestudyregioneconomy,thetypeofsyntheticeconomy,globalfactors,supplementaleconomicfactors,restorationfunctionsforwhichonecanchoosetheperiodforview(i.e.year),rebuildingexpenditure(i.e.year),andstimulusvalues.TheanalysisiscompletedbyclickingonFinish.Figure31showsthe8stepsforsettingtheindirecteconomiclossparameters.

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Figure31SettingupIndirectEconomicLossParameters(1)Source:HAZUSMHSoftware(FEMA2007).

TheothertypeofanalysisisFloodWarningaWhatIftypeanalysis.Peopleingeneralassumethatdamageandlossescanbereducedwitheffectivefloodwarningalthoughtherearedisagreementsoverpossiblereduceddamagebasedoneffective

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warning,andabouttheamountofreduction.TheFloodmodelbasesthecalculationsontheUSACEDaycurve,whichtriestoquantifythemaximumlevelofdamagereductionaccordingtothetimeafloodwarninghasbeenavailable(EPA2004).Thecurveitselfassumesaround35%eachforstructural,content,andbusinessinventorylossesindependentofhowmuchwarningisavailable.ThefloodmodelprovidestheDaycurveintheTechnicalManualandallowsinputoftimeofwarningandexpectedreductionindamage,andcalculatesdamageaccountingfortheanticipatedreduction.Thereisnoguidanceontheamountofvehiculardamage.AlthoughHAZUSMHsuggeststhatthisvalueisrelativelyhigh,thevalueisopen(0100%ofthevehiclesvalue).ValuesareinputbasedonassumptionsorknowledgeasshowninFigure31.ThevaluesassumedinFigure32takeintoconsiderationatwodayweatherforecast(48hourwarning)thatreducestheimpacts.Forexample,theSeafordareaisjustapartoftheStateofDelaware,andspecialtransportationservicescanbeusedforevacuation(i.e.,carpooling,Paratransitbuses).

Figure32FloodWarningAssumptionsforAnalysis

Source:completedin(FEMA2007).Theanalysisforannualizedlossisonlyenabledifthefloodhazardannualizedlosswascalculated.Hereonecandeterminetheirmaximumpotentialannualloss.IftryingtodothisanalysisanerrormessageliketheoneshowninFigure33comesup,isbecausesomestepsaremissing.

Figure33ErrorMessageforAnnualLossAnalysisSource:HAZUSMHSoftware(FEMA2007).

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Toruntheanalysesthefollowingstepsarerequired:GotoHazard>Riverine>DelineateFloodplainsubmenu>AnnualizedLoss.Thisensuresallnecessaryflooddepthgridstoperformtheanalysisareavailable.Then:GotoAnalysismenu>Run>checkforgeneralbuildingstock(asshowninFigure34)>OK.Thiscreatestheanalysisresultsfromthereturnperiodsanalyzed(FEMA2007).

Figure34PreparingforAnnualizedLossAnalysis

Source:completedin(FEMA2007).

GotoAnalysisMenu>AnnualizedLoss>OK.Thissetsupthefloodmodelanalysisforinterpolatingandextrapolatingforotherreturnperiods,developingamaximumannuallossprobability.OnlyiftheGeneralBuildingStock(GBS)analysisforAnnualizedLossesissuccessfullydoneintheHazardphasewillthisnewphaseundertheAnalysismenuworkandgiveanswersforbuildinganalysisresults.Fortheotheroptionssimplybasedonestimationsandnodetailedanalysis,suchasforTransportationSystemsandWhatIfscenariosmitigationpossibilities,theAnnualizedLossesdonotneedtobecompleted.ClickOKinthepromptandHAZUSMHtheninformstheuserthattheprocedurehasbeensuccessful.ThewaytheHAZUSMHdatainventorywasbuilttoservedamageandlossestimationdidnotincludefeatures/specificationsforenablingothertypeofanalysissuchasNetworkAnalyst.TheHAZUSMHdatainventorylimitstheuseofasystemofsystemsanalysisandtheinclusionofperformancemeasuresfortheroadnetwork.Forexample,thereroutinganalysisisintendedtoprovidealternativesfortrafficflowcontinuity.ThisiswhytheGISsoftwareevenwithoutHAZUSMHisessentialfordoingabetteranalysisandthedevelopmentofmitigationstrategies.

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TorunthecompleteAnalyses,gotoAnalysismenu>SelectAll>OK.HAZUSMHwillrunthedefaultanalysesincludingGeneralbuildingstock,Essentialfacilities,Selectedinfrastructure(bridgesandwatersystems),Agricultureproducts,Vehicles,Debris,andShelterrequirements.Toobtainthelossestimationresultsfirstspecifythedesiredscenario.ThisselectionincludesScenarioName,ReturnPeriod,andAnalysisOptions.Resultscanbemaps,tablesandsummaryreports.SelectResultsmenu>ViewCurrentScenarioResultsBy>selectoneoftheavailablehazardanalyses(i.e.,Annual_Losses).Figure35showsthedialogboxforcreatingascenario.ClickOK.Theavailableresultsevenincludea500yearreturnperiodscenario.Choosing100yearproducesthesameresultsasforaSingleReturnPeriodwhennoWhatIfoptionsareaddedtotheanalysis.

Figure35SelectingAvailableResultstoViewSource:completedin(FEMA2007).

InthisscenariotherearenoWhatIfoptions.However,onemustrememberthefloodwarningwassetupandthisisawhatifoption.GototheResultsmenu>FloodHazardMaps>ThematicMapofDepth.Verifylayersandlegend.TheexportedmapisshowninFigure36.

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Figure36SeafordAreaAnnualLossesMapofDepth

GotoResultsmenu>SummaryReportsasshowninFigure37.ThisopensadialogwithdifferentTabsforaccessingtheresultinganalysis.

Figure37SummaryReportsOptions

Source:HAZUSMHsoftware(FEMA2007).AdetailedtableforTransportationSystemDamage/EconomicLosscannotbefoundundertheResultsmenu,buttheestimationtotalsmentionedearliercanbereadundertheSummaryReports>Inventory>TransportationSystemDollarExposure,shownintheHAZUSMHoutputTable12.TheonlyinformationthatisgoingtobeusedinthesimulationinSTELLAisthetotalforHighwaySegments.Theexposureestimatevalueisquantificationformeasuringassetvulnerabilitytothehazard(FEMA2004).

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Table12SummarizedReportforTransportationSystemDollarExposure

Source:outputfrom(FEMA2007).

OtherexposureestimatesareavailableintheSummaryReportsoptionforvehiclesfordayandfornight.EstimatesareshowninTable13.

Table13SummarizedReportforVehicleDollarExposureforDayandNight

Source:outputfrom(FEMA2007).

WhilenoneofthisinformationisusedinthesimulationinSTELLA,theanalysisprovidessomeinsightintotheamountofdamageindollarsrelatedtothenumberofcarsintheareaatdifferentperiodsoftime.TheestimateddebriscanbeseenbygoingtotheoptionInduced>DebrisGenerated>View.Table14showsthetotalsbyalldebristypesforSussex.

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Table14SummarizedReportofEstimationforDebris

Source:outputfrom(FEMA2007).

Theinformationaboutdebrisisusefultoorganizeresourcesforcleaninguptheregion,anddesignatingproperplacestodisposeofthismaterial.Thisisatypicalactivityintherecoveryphasefollowingadisaster.TheonlySummaryReportavailableforAnnualizedLossAnnualreturnperiod,istheAnnualizedDirectEconomicLossesforBuildingsundertheLossestab.ThisisbecauseHAZUSMHfocusesonbuildingassetsusingamorecompleteinventoryandanalysis.Table15showsthedetailsforcapitalstocklossesandincomelosses.

Table15SummaryReportforAnnualizedDirectEconomicLossesforBuildings

Source:outputfrom(FEMA2007).

UndertheLossestab,HAZUSMHshowszerodirecteconomiclossesfortransportation.However,theestimateofeconomiclossesforvehiclesisshowninTable16.

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Table16SummaryReportforDirectEconomicLossforVehiclesDayandNight

Source:outputfrom(FEMA2007).

TherearenoresultsforIndirectEconomicImpactwithorwithoutAidforIncomeandEmploymentImpactwithoutsideaid.Thisresultaccountsforseveraldifferenteconomicsectorsincludingagricultural,mining,transportation,trade,services,andgovernment.TheshelterneedsundertheLossestabareshowninTable17.

Table17HAZUSMHShelterSummaryReport

Source:outputfrom(FEMA2007).

Toassembletheresults,GotoResults>SummaryReports>Other>QuickAssessmentReport>SingleReturnPeriodScenario.TherearenodifferencesintheQuickAssessmentReportwhentheyearofanalysischosenforbothisfora100yearevent.ThereportisshowninFigure38foraSingleReturnPeriod.Thisreportshowsnospecificinformationfortransportation.MostofthisinformationisnotessentialfortheSTELLAmodelforanalyzingthetransportationinfrastructure.

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Figure38QuickAssessmentReportforaSingleReturnPeriod

Source:Outputfrom(FEMA2007).Anotherresultoptionistheoverallsummaryoftheanalysis.GotoResults>SummaryReports>Other>GlobalSummaryReport.Thisoptiongeneratesareportwithmanypages.Thisreportisnotrelevant,because,onceagain,itfocusesinbuildings,andthebestresultpossibletousefortransportationinfrastructureanalysisisthevalueofexposure.Thereforetheactualreportisnotreplicatedinthisworkingpaper.ThistypeofreportgeneratedisidenticaltothatfortheSingleReturnPeriodwithnoWhatIfscenarioadded,bothfor100yearevent.HoweverifaWhatIfscenarioforaLeveeisconsideredfortheSingleReturnPeriod,andtheanalysisforGBSisnotcompleted,thedifferencesare:

BuildingExposurebyOccupancyTypefortheScenariovaluesdovaryasshowninFigure39,

GBSDamageisnotestimatedbecausetheanalysiswasnotdone, InducedFloodDamageDebrisGenerationnumbersvary(i.e.,2,797

tonsrequiring112truckloadstoremovedebrisintheAnnualLossScenario,and2,965tonsrequiring119truckloadstoremovedebrisintheSingleR.P.LeveeScenario),

SocialImpactShelterRequirementsnumbersvary(i.e.,345householdsdisplacedand678peopleneedingtemporarysheltersintheAnnualLossScenario,and353householdsdisplacedand673

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peopleneedingtemporarysheltersintheSingleR.P.LeveeScenario),and

EconomicLossBuildingRelatedLossesarenotestimatedbecauseanalysiswasnotdone.

Figure39ComparisonbetweenGlobalSummaryforAnnualLossandSingleReturnPeriodLevee

Source:outputfrom(FEMA2007).

DiscussionandEvaluationHAZUSResultsTheseresultsshowhowsomepossiblemitigationoptionsimpacttheoverallproblem.TheoptionofbuildingaLeveeatthelocationshowninFigure20aggravatesthefloodingprobleminsteadofminimizingit.Therefore,itisimportanttoevaluatetheresultstodetermineiftheyarereasonableandreadytobeused.Thedecisionmakersshouldgivetheirinputs,andalsothereshouldbeacomparisontotherealeventthattookplaceandthehistorical,documentedlossessuchasTable10andtherelatedgraphinFigure25.Consideringthefactorsthatcanimpactthestudyregion,theresultscanbererunanddocumentedtosupportmitigationstrategies.Atthisstageonecanidentifytheassetsthataresubjecttothegreatestpotentialdamage(FEMA2004).TheoutputsfromHAZUSMHinrelationtothetypeoftransportationinfrastructurethisresearchfocusesonfavorsbridges.Becausethegoalofthisresearchfocusesonmitigationmeasuresforroads,thebroaderperspectiveprovidedbyHAZUSMHonlygiveslimitedinsightsintospecificmeasurestomitigatedamageandlosses.Thisleadstothelaststepintheprocessforconsideringthemitigationoptionsdeveloped.ThelaststepinHAZUSMHistoconsidermitigationoptionsassociatedandresponsivetothelossescalculatedwithanemphasisonthebuildinginventory.InHAZUSMH,lossesareestimatedbasedonthecosttorepairorreplacedamageto,orlossof,thebuildinginventory(FEMA2004).Theeffectivenessofregulatoryortechnical(protectionorcontrol)mitigationmeasuresmustrelyontheexpertiseofprofessionalsandtheknowledgeoflocalperspectivesandneeds.Mitigationoptionsmustbeevaluatedforeffectiveness,acceptability,andfeasibilitywithrespecttoprevailingconditionsinthecommunity.Thisevaluationismeanttohelpnarrowandprioritizeoptionsconsideringtheonesthathavethegreatestchanceforeffectiveimplementation,includinglocalandstateresources.Thequestionstobeanswered,basedonFEMA(FEMA2004)andtailoredtotransportationinfrastructure,are

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Whichmitigationmeasuresaremostappropriatefortheriskassociatedtothelocalroadsforthecommunity?

Istheresufficientcapabilitytoimplementthesemeasuresandassistanceneeded?

Howwilltheimplementationofthesemeasuresimpacttheroadconditionforthecommunity?

Asonecanimagine,theseanswersrequirefurtheranalysisthatthepresentversionofHAZUSMHdoesnotprovide.TheSTELLAmodelisdesignedtoprovidethisanalysis.TheevaluationofmitigationoptionsinHAZUSMHfollowsthesesteps(FEMA2004)

1. identifytherangeofpreliminarymitigationoptionsbystructure(andbyhazard);

2. reviewtheappropriatenessofmeasuresaccordingtoneedsanddesiresofthecommunity;

3. evaluateimplementationofpossiblemitigationoptionsintermsofeffectivenessforreducingrisk;and

4. determinemitigationoptionconflictsifconsideringacombinationofhazards,andhelpintegrateoptionsintothemitigationplan.

TheidentificationofpreliminarymitigationoptionsbasedonHAZUSMHlossestimatesstartsbyselectingtheareaofmajorloss.Thiswasalreadydefinedasthetransportationinfrastructure,independentofotherareas.ThisinformationisnotpresentintheGlobalSummaryReportforAnnualizedLosses,andasexplainedearlier,thereisnovaluecalculatedinHAZUSMHfordirecteconomiclossanalysisfortransportation.ThebasicinformationavailableistheestimationfortransportationexposurepresentedinTable11.Forthestudyregion,thehighwaysegmentsarevaluedatUS$205,419.68(thousandsofdollars).However,exposureandlossarenotthesame.Makingtheassumptionthatthesegmentsatriskare15%ofthetotalexposurevalue;lossescanbeestimatedasUS$30,812.95(thousandsofdollars).Thisaccountsforthehighwaysegmentsthatarevulnerableduetoproximitytoriversandfloodproneareas.Forthesesegmentsmitigationmeasuresareneededthatconsiderthesite/location.Thesemitigationmeasuresmayincluderegulatorymeasuresintheformofdesignstandards(buildingcodes).Thisvulnerabilityalsoleadstolookingatstructuralneeds.Inotherwords,mitigationmeasurescanbebothstructuralandregulatorymeasuresthatincludeoptionsforrehabilitation,protectiveandcontrol(FEMA2004).Examplesofregulatorymeasuresinclude

legislationintendedtoprotectcommunityfromhazards(organizesanddistributeresponsibilities),

financialandsocialimpactreductionregulations(i.e.,insurance),

buildingcodes, landuseandzoningregulations,

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incentivesforimplementingmitigationmeasures, emergencypreparednessmeasurestohelpprotectpeople

andpropertyagainsthazard(duringandafterevent), education(publicawareness), naturalresourceprotection(preserveandrestorenatural

systems).Regulatorymitigationmeasuresforfloodscanbeusedtoguidedevelopmenttononfloodproneareasandtoensurethatfloodinghazardsareaddressedinnewdevelopedfloodproneareasthroughfloodwaysand/orriverineflooding.Floodplainregulationsandbuildingcodesrecognizehazardsandaddressfloodloadsinplanninganddesignofnewbuildingsandinfrastructure.Thecodescanbe/areappliedtodamagedbuildingsthatneedrepairorreconstruction,imposingthesamedegreeofprotectionfornewconstructions(oldbuildingsrehabilitation,elevationinplace,floodproofingdesigntofloodlevels).Therehabilitationofinfrastructurefacilitiesisrelatedtostructuralandnonstructuralmodificationsofitselements.Theideaistoimprovesafetyandreducetheimpactofhazardevents.Therisktotheinfrastructureisoftenbecauseofitslocationinahazardpronearea.Thelevelofdamagerelatesthestructuraldesignandconstructionqualitywithrespecttothecapabilityforresistingtheforcesofnatureandtheintensityoftheevent.Locationandstructurecombinedcanincreaseinfrastructurevulnerability,whichmitigationmeasuresmusttakeinconsideration.Mitigationmeasurescouldbetoremove,relocate,and/ortoelevatestructuresinplace.Eachofthesepossiblemeasureshasdifferentcosts.Thatiswhenthecommunityandstakeholdersmustprioritizeoptionsbyimportanceandvulnerability.

ApplicationtotheCaseStudyTheseoptionsguidedthefurtherassessmentofUS13usingtheSTELLAmodelforthecasestudy.DamagetotransportationinfrastructurerelatedtoUS13duetothefloodofJune25,2006areshowninFigure40.

Figure40DamagerelatedtoUS13inSussexCountySource:(Parsons2006;DelDOTTMC2006).

Threetrafficdetourswerealsosetupduringtheevent.ThesedetourswasdefinedanddocumentedusingaphysicalmapasshowninFigure41.

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Figure41DetoursSetUpduringtheFloodofJune25,2006

Source:(DelDOTTMC2006).Rehabilitationofexistingstructuresrecognizingapreselectedfloodlevelcanreducedamageprovidedmoreseverefloodingdoesnotoccur.Acquisitionanddemolitionofbuildinginfloodproneareasreducesexposureandhelpsrestorethenaturalfunctionoffloodplains.Relocationofbuildingstohigherground,andretrofitofinfrastructure(i.e.modifiedbridgesthatreducesbackwaterflooding)areexamplesofotherpossiblemeasures.Protectiveandcontrolmeasuresfocusondeflectingthedestructiveforcesfromvulnerablestructuresandpeople,orerectingprotectivebarriers(FEMA2004).Examplesarelevees,damsandreservoirs,dischargecanals,floodwalls,shelters,andprotectivevegetationbelts.Thesemeasuresmodifythesource/pathoffloodingtodirectfloodwatersawayfromdevelopedareas(structuralfloodcontrolmeasures).Theyincludedecreasingrunoff,andaugmentingthecapacityfordischarge,floodwatercontainment,diversion,andstorage.Thesemeasuresmaynotbefeasibleinallcontextsorlocations.ThereviewofmitigationmeasuresmustconsiderFEMAsevaluationcriteriaforproposals.Thecriteria,referredtoastheSTAPLEEevaluationcriteria,arealreadypartiallytakeninconsiderationintheHAZUSMHsoftware.Theseevaluationcriteria

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social,technical,administrative,political,legal,economic,andenvironmentalcaptureopportunitiesandconstraintsformitigationmeasuresasfollows:

Socialcriterialookstodevelopacommunityconsensusforimplementingthemitigationmeasures.

Technicalcriteriatakecareoftechnicalfeasibility,whichincludeseffectiveness,secondaryimpacts,implementationandsustainingtechnicalcapabilities.

Administrativecriterialookatorganizations,staff,andfundingsources.

Politicalcriteriaincludethesupportformitigationmeasuresfromstakeholders,politicalorganizationsandinstitutionsinsideandoutsidethecommunity.

Legalcriterialookfortheappropriatelegalauthoritytoimplementeachindividualmeasure,besidescodes,ordinances,andmore.

Economiccriterialooksatcosteffectivenessandimpactsofmeasureseventofuturedevelopment,whichbenefitsareexpectedtoexceedcosts.

Environmentalcriterialookforbenefitingtheenvironment.TheseevaluationaspectscanbebetterincludedintheanalysisinthemodeldevelopedinSTELLA.Thesecriteriabegintoprovideatimeframeformitigationandavoidproblemssuchasobsolescenceorinfeasibility.Figure42showsthefactorsbeingconsideredforevaluatingandadoptingamitigationmeasure,wherea(+)signmustbeassignedforfavorableevaluations,a()signforlessfavorableevaluations,andanN/Aifnotapplicable.Theassumptionmadehereisthatsomemitigationmeasuresdevelopedhavelessfavorableevaluations,andthusaretakenoutofthelistofmitigationoptions.

Figure42STAPLEECriteriaforEvaluatingMitigationMeasures

Source:(RockIslandCounty2008).Thefinalidentificationoftheoptionsformitigationisbasedontheevaluationandcomparisonofmeasures.Thefloodmodelhasabuiltinfeaturespecificallydesignedtosupportmitigationplanning(FEMA2004),withwhatifscenarios(i.e.,leveeforflooddepths,flowregulationfornewreservoirs)thattestsmitigationmeasuresproducing

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newlossestimates.Asshownbefore,theavailablemitigationoptionforLeveeappliedtothatlocationdoesnotlessentheproblem.ThefollowinganalysisconsiderstheresultsfortheAnnualizedLossesscenariofromHAZUSMH,principallybecausecurrentresultsdolittlefortransportationinfrastructure.Theverificationofmitigationoptionsfirstconsidersconflictingmeasuresamongdifferenthazards.Asthiscasestudyisonlyassessingfloodingissues,therearenoconflictingmitigationmeasuresinrelationtodifferenthazards.Thenthereistheconfirmationofoptions(adecision)andtheintegrationofitinthemitigationplanwhichmustmeettheDMA2000requirements.AsummaryoftheoutputsforrecoveryandmitigationmeasuresforthiscasestudyisshowninTable18modifiedfromFEMAsguide(FEMA2004).Table18SummarizedMitigationMeasuresbasedonHAZUSMHandHistoryforTransportation

InfrastructureRoadsMitigationActivities

Output CompletedItems

Preliminaryoptions

Regulatorymeasures: reinforcementofconstructioncodes(i.e.,elevatedegreeofprotectionfor

rehabilitation,elevateroaddesigntofloodlevel,engineeringdesignimprovement,siteaccesspoints,roadway/pedestrianpaths)

incentivesformitigationmeasuresimplementation,flowregulation educationmeasures(publicawareness) naturalresourceprotectionmeasure(preserveandrestorenatural

systems)Rehabilitationmeasures(cost,importance,vulnerability?): structuralandnonstructuralmodificationsofroadsegments(i.e.increase

structuralresistanceimpactload,retrofitroadways,enlargeroadshoulders)

improvehighwayslightsandsigns remove,relocate,and/ortoelevateroads/roadsegmentstomeetnew

performanceobjectivesProtectiveandcontrolmeasures floodwalls,levee,warningsystem(i.e.,basedonweatherforecast) protectivevegetationbelts reviewandbuildconnections

HAZUSMHmitigationinsights

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ContinueTable18.Reviewofoptions

Regulatorymeasures: reinforcementofconstructioncodes(i.e.,elevatedegreeofprotectionfor

rehabilitation,elevateroaddesigntofloodlevel,engineeringdesignimprovement,siteaccesspoints,roadway/pedestrianpaths)

Rehabilitationmeasures(cost,importance,vulnerability?): structuralandnonstructuralmodificationsofroadsegments(i.e.increase

structuralresistanceimpactload,retrofitroadways,enlargeroadshoulders),

improvehighwayslightsandsigns remove,relocate,and/ortoelevateroads/roadsegmentstomeetnew

performanceobjectivesProtectiveandcontrolmeasures floodwalls,warningsystem(i.e.,basedonweatherforecast) reviewandbuildconnections

STAPLEE

Finallistofoptions

ImpossiblewithcurrentHAZUSMHfunctions,forexceptionfortheadoptionofwarningsystemalreadyincludedincurrentresults.AlthoughthelistedmitigationoptionscouldallbeanalyzedforUS13,theseoptionsarelatercarefullyreviewedtoreachanimprovedresilienceoftransportationsystemgoal.HAZUSMHdoesnotdiscussresilience.

Tobefurther

exploredinSTELLA

Verificationofoptions

Noconflictingmeasures tomitigatehazardimpact.

Source:modifiedfrom(FEMA2004).Theintegrationofmeasuresintomitigationplansisconsideredonlyforthetransportationinfrastructureatthelocallevel,whichinDelawareingeneralisundertheresponsibilityoftheDepartmentofTransportation.TheimpactsaffectingthecommunityalsofallundertheresponsibilityoftheDelawareEmergencyManagementAgency(DEMA).Thereforethesearethetwoprimarydecisionmakersintheprocess.HoweverbecauseFEMAistheprimaryagencyresponsiblefordisasterrelatedfunding,thisagencyisalsoincludedasadecisionmaker.(AlsoHAZUSMHwasspeciallydevelopedforFEMAandthisisreflectedintheanalysis.)WhiletherearesuggestionsthatincludethesedecisionmakersintheHAZUSMHanalysisprocess,thereisnoinputinthecurrentmodelofthedecisionprocess.Theonlyinputsarefordataandalterationstothecurrentmodels.Thecurrentdata,inventory,analysisandestimationresults,andmitigationinsightscomingfromHAZUSMHincludedintheSTELLAmodelaredescribedintheDevelopingtheSTELLAModelforaDSSforMitigationStrategiesforTransportationInfrastructureworkingpaper.Therearenorealisticresultstobecommunicatedtothepublic,stakeholdersordecisionmakersfromthecurrentresults.DecisionmakersandthedecisionprocessarerepresentedinSTELLAintermsofdevelopingmitigationmeasuresfocusingonimprovingtheresilienceoftransportationsystem,usingasanexamplehighwayUS13.

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AcknowledgmentsTheauthorwouldliketothanktheUniversityofDelaware,UniversityTransportationCenter,andtheDelawareDepartmentofTransportationforsponsoringthisresearch.TheauthorwouldalsoliketothankPhDSueMcNeil,ProfessorintheDepartmentofCivilEngineering,DirectoroftheDisasterResearchCenter,andAdviserforallthepatience,hardworkandsupportduringalltheprocessofthisresearch.

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ReferencesBayBridgePublicInformationOffice.2007.FactsheetSelfanchoredSuspensionSpan:

TheSanFranciscoOaklandBayBridgeSeismicSafetyProjects.,ed.Caltrans,BayAreaTollAuthority,CaliforniaTransportationCommission.

DelDOTTMC.2006.DetoursmapforJune25,2006..2006.PicturesofUS13damage.US13damageduetoflooding06/25/2006.,ed.

DelawareDepartmentofTransportation,TransportationManagement