Evaluation of the Risk of Flood in Iskandar Malaysia Region, Using

Fuzzy Logic and Weighted Linear Combination in Geographic

Information System

NASIM YEGANEH

A project report submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the

award of the degree of Master of Science (Urban and Regional Planning)

Faculty of Built Environment

Universiti Teknologi Malaysia

JUNE 2013

iii

DEDICATION

To my beloved Mother and Father

with Regards…

iv

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

Many have contributed to the completion of this study, knowingly and

unknowingly, for which I am highly indebted. First of all, I am greatly indebted to

my supervisor, Dr. Soheil Sabri, for his knowledge, advice, patience and immense

contribution in directing the framework of the study, and for putting up with my

initial endless “waffling”. His time and effort is highly appreciated. I also would like

to express my appreciation to Assoc. Prof. Dr. Foziah Johar for her comments and

cooperation during conducting this study.

Further gratitude is extended to my friends especially Zhou wei. For their

encouragement, support and presence helped. I’m also grateful to them for filling my

academic days with joy and happiness.

Last but not the least, I would like to sincerely thank my family, brother

Bizhan Yeganeh and sisters Maryam Abbasi and Negin Yeganeh, specially my

parents Nezam Yeganeh and Shahin Shahbazi for their endless love, support and

encouragement. I could not have done it without you!

v

ABSTRACT

Recently, Iskandar Malaysia region have been affected by flood events,

which cause environmental, social and economic impacts. Severe rainfall, natural

situation, new unplanned developments, and insufficient drainage systems make the

situation more remarkable.

This research is an approach of flood hazard assessment at regional scale. The

objectives of this study are to find out the criteria which contribute to the risk of

flooding based on the characteristic of the region to develop a GIS-aided urban flood

susceptibility map. Fuzzy logic and Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) methods

in Geographic Information System (GIS) are used to achieve the objectives. Defined

criteria are evaluated by means of complexity, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis.

The methodology emphasizes on uncertainty criteria which contribute to the risk of

flood and increase the risk. Distance from main stream, elevation, slope, land use

type, distance from river and distance from discharge channel are recognized as

effective criteria within the region. Each criterion is evaluated based on fuzzy

membership type and generated map are combined using weighted linear

combination to produce the final flood susceptibility map. Final susceptibility map

indicates that around 6.586 square kilometers within the region face high level of

risk. Pulai, Senai Kulai, Tebrau and Johor Bahru can be considered as areas which

face the risk. Natural and man-made situation influence the level of risk in each area.

Generally the southern part of the region has high level of risk as a consequence of

conjunction of location of stream, lowland and land use type. The model is evaluated

by sensitivity analysis to analysis the uncertainty and degree of importance of input

criteria. Finally the situation in 2025 is investigated based on the proposed plan for

2025.

vi

ABSTRAK

Baru-baru ini wilayah Iskandar, Malaysia telah terjejas dengan kejadian-

kejadian banjir yang menyebabkan impak alam sekitar, sosial dan ekonomi. Hujan

yang sangat lebat, keadaan semulajadi, pembangunan baru yang tidak dirancang, dan

sistem perparitan yang tidak mencukupi menjadikan keadaan lebih parah lagi.

Kajian ini adalah satu pendekatan penilaian bahaya banjir dalam skala

wilayah. Objektif kajian ini ialah untuk mencari kriteria yang menyumbang kepada

risiko banjir berdasarkan kepada ciri-ciri wilayah tersebut dan membangunkan peta

kecenderungan banjir bandar dengan bantuan GIS. Kaedah Fuzzy Logic dan

Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) dalam Sistem Maklumat Geografi (GIS) telah

digunakan untuk mencapai objektif yang digariskan. Kriteria yang telah ditetapkan

dinilai melalui kerumitan, ketidaktentuan, dan analisis sensitiviti. Kaedah yang

digunakan menumpukan kepada ketidaktentuan kriteria yang menyumbang kepada

risiko banjir dan meningkatkan lagi risiko ini. Jarak dari aliran utama, ketinggian,

cerun, jenis penggunaan tanah, jarak dari sungai, dan jarak dari saluran pembuangan

adalah ciri-ciri yang yang dikenalpasti sebagai kriteria yang efektif dalam wilayah

ini. Setiap kriteria dinilai berdasarkan kepada jenis Fuzzy membership dan gabungan

peta yang dijana adalah menggunakan kombinasi linear wajaran (weighted linear

combination) untuk menghasilkan peta kecenderungan banjir yang terakhir. Peta

kecenderungan banjir yang terakhir ini menunjukkan bahawa linkungan 6.586

kilometer persegi dalam wilayah yang dikaji berdepan dengan risiko tahap tinggi.

Pulai, Senai, Kulai, Tebrau, dan Johor Bahru boleh dianggap sebagai kawasan yang

berdepan dengan risiko ini. Keadaan semulajadi dan buatan manusia mempengaruhi

tahap risiko dalam setiap kawasan. Secara umumnya, bahagian selatan wilayah ini

mempunyai tahap risiko yang tinggi berdasarkan kepada lokasi sungai, tanah rendah,

dan jenis penggunaan tanah. Model ini dinilai oleh analisis sensitiviti untuk menilai

ketidaktentuan dan tahap kepentingan kriteria input. Akhirnya, situasi pada tahun

2025 dikaji berdasarkan pelan perancangan yang dicadangkan untuk tahun tersebut.

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TABLE OF CONTENT

CHAPTER

TITLE

PAGE

AUTHOR'S DECLARATION ii

DEDICATION iii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT iv

ABSTRACT v

ABSTRAK vi

TABLE OF CONTENTS vii

LIST OF FIGURES xi

LIST OF TABLES xiii

1 INTRODUCTION 1

1.1 Introduction 1

1.2 Background of the Study 3

1.3 Problem Statement 4

1.4 Research Questions 5

1.5 Objectives of Study 6

1.6 Significance of Study 6

1.7 Research Methodology 7

1.8 Research Organization 8

2

LITERATURE REVIEW

11

2.1 Introduction 11

2.2 Natural Hazard 12

2.3 Flood 12

2.3.1 Definition of Flood 13

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2.3.2 Causes of Flood 14

2.3.3 Flash Flood 16

2.4 Risk 17

2.5 Flood Risk Assessment 18

2.5.1.Different Methodologies for Flood

Risk Assessment 19

2.6 Flood Effects on Built Environment 21

2.7 Effects of Urban Development on Flood 22

2.7.1 Urban Development Hydrologic Effect 23

2.7.2 Hydraulic Effects due to Stream

Channels and Floodplains Changes 25

2.7.3 Urban Development Effects on Flood

Frequency and Discharge 26

2.8 Indicators Which Contribute to the Risk of

Flood 29

2.8.1 Distance to the Discharge Channels 36

2.8.2 Elevation 37

2.8.3 Slope 38

2.8.4 Land Use and Cover Type 38

2.8.5 Distance from Stream 39

2.9.6 Population Density 39

2.9 Flood in Malaysia 41

3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND DATA

PREPARATION 46

3.1 Introduction 46

3.2 Methodological Framework and Model

Introduction 46

3.3 Methodology Approach 49

3.3.1 Phase One: Investigate the Main

Criteria which are Associated with

Flood Risk

49

ix

3.3.2 Phase Two: Find out to what Extent

do Criteria Associate with the Risk

of Flooding

49

3.3.2.1 Justification for Suggested

Method 50

3.3.2.2 Criterion Weighting 51

3.3.3 Phase Three: Generate Flood

Susceptibility Map with Respect to

Defined Criteria

52

3.4 Study Area 54

3.5 Data Collection and Data Preparation 58

3.5.1 Map Projection 58

3.5.2 Convert Vector Data to Raster Data 58

3.5.3 Data Reclassification 60

3.5.4 Fuzzy Membership Type Selection 63

3.5.5 Weighted Linear Combination 71

3.6 Modeling 73

3.6.1 Model Validation 73

3.6.2 Model Evaluation 73

3.6.3 Sensitivity Analysis 74

3.7 Summary

75

4 DATA ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND

DISCUSSION 76

4.1 Introduction 76

4.2 Model validation 77

4.3 Model Evaluation 78

4.4 Investigate the condition and highlighting

effective criteria in different Mukim 81

4.4.1 Tebrau 81

4.4.2 Senai Kulai 84

4.4.3 Pulai 88

4.4.4 Sungai Karang, Tanjong Kupang, 92

x

Jelutong and Jeram Batu

4.4.5 Johor Bahru 93

4.4.6 Comparison between Different

Mukims 95

4.4.7 Model Sensitivity Analysis 98

4.4.8 Vulnerability Assessment 105

4.5 Generated Model based on Proposed Plan

for 2025 107

4.4.1 Generated Model for 2025 107

4.6 Summary

110

5 CONCLUSION 112

5.1 Summary of Finding 112

5.2 Conclusion 113

5.3 Recommendation 114

REFERENCES 116

xi

List of Figure

FIGURE No. TITLE PAGE

Figure 2.1 Comparison between peak discharge and volume

in urban and rural area 25

Figure 2.2 Trend of changing in maximum annual discharge 27

Figure 2.3 comparison between urban and green area in

terms of long term annual rainfall 1965 – 2002 28

Figure 2.4 Comparison of annual rainfall in urban and green

area in Kuala Lumpur and Johor Bahru 29

Figure 2.5 Criteria which contribute to the risk of flood 36

Figure 2.6 Flood prone area in peninsular Malaysia 44

Figure 2.7 Summary of literature review 45

Figure 3.1 Research work flow 48

Figure 3.2 Weighted Linear Combination concept 54

Figure 3.3 Iskandar Malaysia region 55

Figure 3.4 Flooded area within the study area 56

Figure 3.5 Methodology framework 57

Figure 3.6 Fuzzy Gaussian membership 64

Figure 3.7 Fuzzy Large membership 65

Figure 3.8 Fuzzy Linear membership 66

Figure 3.9 Fuzzy MS Large membership 66

Figure 3.10 Fuzzy Near membership 67

Figure 3.11 Fuzzy Small membership 68

Figure 3.12 Land use map preparation 71

Figure 3.12 Followed steps to achieve the final result 72

Figure 4.1 Model validation based on “distance from main

stream” 77

Figure 4.2 Model validation based on “Land use” 78

Figure 4.3 Flooded area and generated model 79

Figure 4.4 Flood susceptibility map in Iskandar Malaysia 80

Figure 4.5 Tebrau flood susceptibility map 83

Figure 4.6 Flooded area in Northern part of Senai Kulai 86

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Figure 4.7 Fuzzy membership map in terms of land use type

in Senai Kulai 87

Figure 4.8 Senai Kulai flood susceptibility map 88

Figure 4.9 Flooded area in Northern part of Pulai 90

Figure 4.10 Pulai flood susceptibility map 91

Figure 4.11 Sungai Karang, Tanjong Kupang, Jelutong and

Jeram Batu flood susceptibility map 93

Figure 4.12 Johor Bahru flood susceptibility map 95

Figure 4.13 Built up and non-built up area 97

Figure 4.14 Sensitivity analysis maps in Iskandar Malaysia 100

Figure 4.15 First step of sensitivity analysis 101

Figure 4.16 Second step of sensitivity analysis 102

Figure 4.17 Third step of sensitivity analysis 102

Figure 4.18 Fourth step of sensitivity analysis 103

Figure 4.19 Fifth step of sensitivity analysis 104

Figure 4. 20 Sixth step of sensitivity analysis 104

Figure 4. 21 Population density and area under the flood risk 106

Figure 4.22 Fuzzy membership maps in terms of land use for

2011 and 2025 108

Figure 4.23 Flood susceptibility map for 2011 and 2025 108

Figure 4.24 Comparison between built up and non-built up

area in 2011 and 2025 110

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List of Table

TABLE No. TITLE PAGE

Table 2.1 Criteria and Indicators 40

Table 3.1 Distance from main stream, river and drainage

system 60

Table 3.2 Assigned rank for reclassify the indicators 62

Table 3.3 Type of fuzzy membership 70

Table 3.4 Weight of criteria 72

Table 4.1 Land use type in Tebrau 82

Table 4.2 Land use type in Senai Kulai 84

Table 4.3 Land use type in Pulai 89

Table 4.4 Land use type in Sungai Karang, Tanjong

Kupang, Jelutong and Jeram Batu 92

Table 4.5 Land use type in Johor Bahru 94

Table 4.6 Comparision between elevation and slope in

Mukims 96

Table 4.7 Comparision between land use type in Mukims 97

Table 4.8 Sensitivity analysis result 105

Table 4.9 Comparison between land use type in 2011 and

2025 in different Mukims 109

CHAPTER 1

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Introduction

Floodplains are recognized as desirable places for habitation and

development due to the inherent advantages for water supply, irrigation system,

power, food and defense (White, 2008). Also convenient navigation and

transportation system for communication provide along coastal area and rivers

(Tingsanchali, 2012). Despite the above mentioned advantages, this situation

increases the risk of flooding and make flooding one of the most remarkable natural

hazards (White, 2008).

During the last decade, flooding is recognized as the most common disaster in

all over the world and causes nearly half of all victims of natural hazards. In addition

to that, economic losses is estimated around US $185 billion (Alderman et al., 2012).

More than 50 percent of global flood damages occur in Asian countries

(Tingsanchali, 2012). Due to climate change and arising sea level flooding are

expected to occur more frequent and intensive. In addition, more people will be put

in jeopardy of flooding due to increasing levels of urbanization recently. Land use

2

change is associated with urban development and affects flooding in many ways

(Alderman et al., 2012).

Natural hazards’ threat in urban areas is mostly inscribed via land-use zoning

and building regulation (Khailani and Perera, 2013). Deforestation, removing soil

and vegetation, grading land surface and improper drainage system implementation

intensify runoff. Volume, vehemence and frequency of flood will be increased as a

result of the peak discharge. Capacity of stream channels for transmitting floodwater

are affected and decreased due to the urban development. Constructing roads and

building in place which are located in flood prone areas increase the risk of flooding,

inundation and erosion. Surface water flooding management is impeded due to the

urban drainage characteristic (Kaźmierczak et al., 2011).

Basically, some attributes can provide inherent resilience within the city.

Impermeable surface within the cities such as buildings, parking and roads increase

the surface runoff. On the other hand presences of green space and city surface which

have high capacity to observe water reduce runoff volume (Kaźmierczak et al.,

2011).

Apparently, land use and evapotranspiring surfaces proportion have effects

on water behavior and flooding. Housing type as one of the city features affects the

risk of flooding. Housing units which are located at or below ground level or housing

with low floor are more frequently exposed to flood (Kaźmierczak et al., 2011).

Lightweight constructions are more affected by flooding than solid masonry

building. In addition, risk of flooding is associated with natural feature, slope,

topography and land use as well (Kaźmierczak et al., 2011). As a result, urban area

where once seen as a safety place, nowadays face to different disasters and risks

(White, 2008).

3

Based on the above argument it can be inferred that various criteria might

increase the risk of flooding and flood vulnerability. Hence to find the criteria that

contribute to the risk of flooding and appropriate method to evaluate the criteria

seems necessary to mitigate the risk. Therefore, providing effective geospatial

information by using information and communication technology can provide proper

basis to improve the decisions which are made in planning system and development

(Chandio et al., 2012).

1.2 Background of the Study

In Malaysia floods are known as the most common natural hazards due to the

heavy rainfall that causes some destruction every year. During 1956–2007, the

number of victims of flooding has estimated around 2.7 million people. In Malaysia

9% of total land that occupies an area of 29,000 km2 which includes 23% of total

urban area are located in flood prone areas. Due to the lack of appropriate measure

for development control, the annual cost of flooding in the country is estimated

RM100 million (Khailani and Perera, 2013). Flood as a common natural hazard

within the country has effects on environmental, economic and social aspects of

people’s life. Mitigating the effects of flood on different aspects of society can

ensure more sustainable development.

Therefore, emphasis on physical adaptations and effective criteria to reduce

the risk of flood in built environment and vulnerability of settlements through

planning and development interventions for making the human settlement more

sustainable during natural hazards is an essential term (Khailani and Perera, 2013).

Morphology, natural situation and artificial element must be considered in

risk assessment and future development. Recognizing built and natural elements

4

which are affected the risk of flooding within the area can be considered as an

important part of evaluating flood hazard. In addition, the risk of flooding is higher

in more urbanized area (Morelli et al., 2012). Therefore, to find out the reasons and

criteria that increase the risk of flood exposure must be considered.

Furthermore during last decade Malaysia accelerate urbanization trend and

also deforestation can be observed within the country (Malaysia National Physical

Plan, 2010). Due to this situation more area expose to the risk of flooding. Different

urban features that can increase the amount of runoff and the risk of flooding can be

observed within the urbanized area. Percentage of impervious surface is remarkably

high in cities. This character can affect the rainfall infiltration, inundation and flood

damages (Tingsanchali, 2012). Hence identifying all the criteria which are associated

with the risk of flood can lead the planners toward sustainable development.

Besides the destructive environmental effect flood hazard also has economic

and social effect especially in urban area that affect the development in direct and

indirect ways (Tingsanchali, 2012). Hence, evaluating the data about stream flow and

the effects of land use can help us to reduce loss of social capital and property.

1.3 Problem Statement

Iskandar Malaysia is situated on the South of Peninsular Malaysia and it is

considered as a very special and strategic location. Because of its location, it became

the most popular gateway from South. Based on National Physical Plan rapid urban

growth can be observed in the area.

5

In terms of weather, study area is under tropical weather with the different

daily temperature from 24ºC until 32ºC. Overall, the topographic condition is up to

640 meters above sea level and the lowest is about 2 meters from sea level. Average

annual rainfall is 1778 mm with average temperature of between 25.5 °C (78 °F) and

27.8 °C (82 °F). Humidity is between 82% and 86% (www.mbjb.gov.my). Basically,

in recent years due to the heavy rainfall the region faced several damages because of

flood. Therefore, to find the character within the study area which are increased the

risk of flooding can be helpful to reduce the number of victims and property loss.

In addition, rapid urban growth and deforestation within the region make the

situation more remarkable. Flood hazard recognizes as environmental phenomenon

but it can affect other components of sustainability including social and economic

aspects as well. One of the main goals of Malaysia National Physical Plan is promote

the current situation toward the sustainable development (Malaysia National Physical

Plan, 2010). Therefore, going through sustainability strategy and following the

National Physical Plan framework needs to find out effective criteria which are

associated with sustainability and risk of flooding. Evaluating the identified criteria

can provide an appropriate basis for future development especially in developing

area and mitigate the risk in current and future situation.

1.4 Research Questions

This research is conducted to find out the appropriate answer for questions below:

Which criteria contribute to the risk of flooding?

To what extent do criteria associate with the risk of flooding?

Which place within the study area face higher risk of flooding?

6

How to mitigate the flood vulnerability with respect to flood susceptibility

map?

1.5 Objectives of Study

This study aims to evaluate the effect of urban form on the flood vulnerability in

urban areas. Objectives of the study are mentioned below:

To investigate the main criteria which are associated with flood risk

To evaluate degree of importance for criteria that increase the risk of flooding

To generate flood susceptibility map with respect to defined criteria

To examine the impact of significant criteria which contribute to the flood

vulnerability for evaluating future development

1.6 Significance of Study

Flood is identified as the most common type of natural disaster and has

occurred more intensive and recurrent in recent year (Alderman et al., 2012).

Different conditions such as climate change, global warming, heavy rainfall, rising

level of sea, high tides and manmade factors including more urbanized area,

inappropriate land use, deforestation, aggravation of drainage channels and etc.

increase the risk of flood occurrence (Tingsanchali, 2012). Environmental

devastation, social and economic loss can be observed obviously as an outcome of

7

this phenomenon. Actually different environmental, social and economic aspects of

society are affected by flooding. Therefore, addressing the measures that can mitigate

the effects of the flood seems necessary.

This study carries out in the Southern Malaysia where flood is a dominant

natural disaster. Also rapid urbanization and deforestation can be observed within the

area clearly. Furthermore, this area is coastal area in which the risk of flooding is

high due to the low lying level (Tingsanchali, 2012). Moreover urbanized area

experience more social and property loss when the flood hazard occurs. Due to the

many changes which are happened during urbanization trend such as green space

devastation and generating more impervious surfaces, risk of flooding has been

increased in urban area (Tingsanchali, 2012). Hence, it can be concluded that natural

and manmade situation affect the risk of flooding in the study area. Therefore

investigating the criteria which contribute to the risk of flooding is necessary to find

out the appropriate direction for future development and measures for mitigating the

risk of flooding and its effect.

1.7 Research Methodology

Methodology is a systematic process of collecting, organizing and analyzing

data which is selected based on the research objective. Methods that will be used

through conducting the research are described below. Research methodology to

conduct the research will be elaborated in chapter 3.

I. To investigate the main urban form criteria which are associated with flood

risk in urban area, different sources is reviewed to find out relevant criteria

which contribute to the risk of flood.

8

II. To evaluate degree of importance for criteria, Fuzzy logic can be operated to

analyze the criteria and alternatives which are extracted through literature

review.

III. To examine the impact of significant criteria combination between

Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Fuzzy Logic by using

Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) can be carried out to create flood

susceptibility map. GIS provide basis for criteria computation and can be

used in spatial analysis and modeling while a Fuzzy logic provide basis for

categorizing and ranking the criteria.

1.8 Research Design and Organization

A research design can be recognized as blueprint or framework for shedding

light into the procedure and provide bases for conducting the research. It can be

defined as a tool to gain the research questions. Six factors which are mentioned

below identified by Sekaran (1992) as research design elements:

i. Type of investigation: Type of investigation includes experimental,

descriptive or comparative research.

ii. Purpose of the study: Purpose of study indicates the goal of research that can

be descriptive, exploratory or hypothesis testing.

iii. Research limitation: each research has its own limitation in terms of

researcher and specific field of science where the research will be carried out; a

research design defines all limitation.

iv. Setting the goals of the study: Goals of the study must be adjusted before

beginning the research. Study goals give the researcher clear direction and also it is

necessary part of research design.

9

v. Measures that are related to analysis: Each research includes various

indicators as input or output to be measured. These indicators must be defined clearly

in research design.

vi. Research scheduling regards to time: The final part of research design is

recognized as time scheduling. In some experimental research different factors such

as production life span or perishable material can be affected by timing. All the

research must follow the scheduling which can be used as helpful tools to get output

from the process by regarding to the time.

Chapter1

Chapter 1 includes an introduction to the research and its significance.

Research question and objectives are introduced in this chapter as well, followed by

research methodology to conduct the research.

Chapter 2

Chapter 2 discusses about relevant terms to provide clear understanding about

the subject. Causes and effects of flooding are investigated. Relevant researches are

revised to find out the criteria which are associated with the risk of flooding to be the

source of criteria and indicators selection.

Chapter 3

Chapter 3 presents the research structure and main method that are used to

conduct the research. Data preparation trend by using Fuzzy method and Weighted

Linear Combination in Geographic Information system environment discusses as

well.

10

Chapter 4

Chapter 4 elaborates the data analysis, result and finding of the research. The

main aim of this chapter is to indicate the area with high level of risk and find out the

significant criteria which contribute to the risk and compare the different situation.

Chapter 5

Chapter 5 sums up the research finding, also presents some potential for uses

of the outcome of the research and recommend suggestions regarding the current and

future situation.

116

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