Ethnic Diversity and Development in Africa

ECON 3510 June 15, 2010(Text Chapter 8)

A. Ritter

Outline:1. Introduction2. What is Ethnic Identity? 3. Ethnic Identity in Africa4. Why might Ethnic Identity be

dysfunctional?5. Does Ethnic Identity Cause Civil War?6. Policy Implications

1. IntroductionEthnic identity:

A powerful but primordial force; A curse? the source of discrimination, corruption,

victimization, civil conflict?

Ethnic fragmentation: accused of causing Civil conflict Dysfunctional Politics, messed up economic policy and poor

economic performance

Are these accusations correct? To what extent and in what senses? This is the research question for this chapter of the text.

Africa: The most ethnically fragmented region in the world? Perhaps.

Note also the costs of historical ethnic homogenization and nation-building in France, Spain, Germany, Greece, Turkey, Britain, Estonia, Yugoslavia etc.

But note the phenomenon of the “ethnic state” in Europe;

Ethnic homogeneity as in North Korea or Somalia: no guarantee of anything

2. What is Ethnic Identity?Traditional human identity was based on kin-ship groups or

clans Effective means of socio-econo-political organization for

millennia– “effective mechanisms of information sharing, contract

enforcement, and lifetime membership rules” – A foundation for economic cooperation, on the production

side and on sharing regarding consumption; current echoes in family oriented enterprises, ethnically

based economic activities (such as diamond trade in New York, or the “Patels”) in complex market economies

Sharing within extended families and the “village” Echoes in family dynasties and tribe based political systems

in many parts of the world

In complex large nation states with fractionalized ethnicities, how effective can the tribe be in eliciting cooperation for the common well-being at the national level?

Note that tribes have constructed lasting political alliances within political parties sometimes (Embu, Meru Kikuyu, and maybe Kamba in Kenya)

In some cases, ethnic loyalties have been transformed into broader loyalties at a broader tribal level or multi-tribal level

But “Nation-Building” or developing a national identity must also be an imperative for a complex society. (note Nyerere in Tanzania)

Measuring Ethnic Fragmentation:

The ELF Index or “Ethno-Linguistic Fractionalization Index”: a measure of ethnic differentiation or diversity; designed to quantify the phenomenon

(A concept from Political Science also used extensively by economists because it is quantitative!)

“the probability that two people selected at random will be from a different different ethnic group”

Homogenous societies: one ethnic group only: Score 0

Maximum heterogeneity, each person is ethnically distinct: Score 1.00

Measuring Ethnic Fragmentation:The ELF Index or “Ethno-Linguistic Fractionalization

Index”: “the probability that two people selected at random will be from a different different ethnic group”

Homogenous societies: one ethnic group only: Score 0Maximum heterogeneity, each person is ethnically distinct: Score 1.00

Country Score

Burundi 0.04

Somalia 0.08

Lesotho 0.22

Nigeria 0.87

Uganda 0.90

Kenya 0.83

Tanzania 0.93

Source: D. M. Posner, Measuring Ethnic Fractionalization in Africa, American Journal of

Political Science, 48:4, 2004

Measuring Ethnic Fragmentation, cont’d:ELF Index: “the probability that two people selected at

random will be from a different different ethnic group”Problem with measure:

– Does not measure the depth of ethnic divisions– does not distinguish between countries where there is

one tribe dominance among many and where there are numerous small ethnic groups–No consideration of religious cleavages–No consideration of regional dimensions fo ethnic

location

Two distinct situations or cases: ethnic dominance; andethnic fragmentation

Is ethnic fractionalization or dominance the source of difficulties?

Is ethnic diversity or ethnic dominance the source of victimization of smaller groups? Or other factors?

(e.g. Jews sand Gypsies in Hitler’s Germany; Tutsis in Rwanda. Asians in Amin’s Uganda?)

3. Ethnic Identity in AfricaVarious cases:

Single ethnic group: SwazilandTwo or a few: Rwanda, Burundi,

Botswana, LesothoOne or two dominant among numerous:

Kenya, Zimbabwe, Ethiopia?

Very many: Congo, Tanzania, Nigeria

Some Examples:

Kenya

Cote d’Ivoire

5. Why might Ethnic Identity be dysfunctional?• Primordial ethnic loyalties may overwhelm national

purpose;• Ethnic dominance may permanently bias public policy

in favour of the dominant group• Minority groups may lose out• May operate through democratic mechanisms or

various types of dictatorships • May subvert democratic mechanisms with coup

d’etats etc in order to maintain dominance when challenged

• More extreme actions of domination may occur• “Redistribution” in favour of the dominant group may

be at the expense of regional and ethnic balance and economic growth

5. Why might Ethnic Identity be dysfunctional, cont’d?

Relevance of ethnic diversity for policy making depends on a number of factors:• Nature of political system

Democracy vs. Dictatorship; & Predatory vs. Benevolent

DictatorshipProportional Representation vs.

Simple Majority;• Single-issue politics vs. multi issue politics• Ethnic Fragmentation or Dominance

2. Collier makes logical analyses of a number of these followed by statistical analyses, summarized in the chapter

[Omit the detail of the statistical analysis, look at the results]

Collier’s statistical analysis:Based on – estimates of private and public capital stock; – for 56 countries in Africa;– estimations of production functions;– with addition of estimated measures of ethnic diversity.

Does ethnic diversity raise or lower the productivity of public and private capital stock? Mixed results:

o Higher diversity raises productivity of private capital not public capital, i.e. national public goods are de-emphasized

o Lower diversity lowers productivity of private capital and raises that of public capital i.e. national public goods are emphasized

o Magnitudes are not too significant

Does Ethnic Diversity Cause Civil Strife? Recent or Current cases:

Nigeria: Ogoni and others seeking a greater share of the oil wealth vs. Federal Government;

Somalia: clan/territorial and sub-clan divisions wreck havoc

Kenya: Luo-Kikuyu rivalry Chad: rival groups vie for oil wealth

Collier’s conclusion:Most conflicts have an ethnic dimension; but the real underlying

cause and motivation may be control of resource wealth and “rents”

i.e. conflicts get patterned on ethnicity or religion, though fundamental causes usually lie elsewhere

A key factor re civil conflicts: financing the rebels

Civil conflict will continue only as long as financial resource permit it. [To this I would add support in men and armaments]

Where do funds come from to support the rebels?Where does physical support in men and munitions come

from?

Some Recent African cases Liberia, Sierra Leone, earlier: diamond tradeSomalia: from Eritria? Al Queda? Foreign Jihadists?Chad: Oil revenues

The role of Diasporas in supporting rebellion:

Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka: of central importance

Significance in Africa? UnclearEritrean diaspora in Europe: a major role in

supporting the Independence movementSomali diaspora now: support for the

Transitional Federal parliament

6. Policy Implications“Ethnically diverse societies

(1) do not have a worse economic performance and (2) are actually safer than more homogenous societies. ” The strong accusations made against ethnic diversity are

not supported by theoretical argument or empirical evidence.

1. Small secessionist ethnically more homogenous states may be more prone to conflict than larger multi-ethnic states.

Therefore, support the continued existence of large multi-ethnic states such as Nigeria, Sudan, Kenya, Tanzania etc. Don’t promote or support break-up.

2. In countries with “ethnic dominance” the risk of civil conflict is higher. Therefore, protect minorities more effectively and share public expenditures and tax burdens with minorities more equitably

3. Promote reasonable sharing or resource revenues among local, provincial and federal governments (as in Nigeria); promote greater federalist decentralization and “fiscal federalism”

4. Promote greater transparency and equity in public sector and service hiring among ethnic groups

5. Further democratize ethnically diverse countries, to promote fairer sharing of revenues and facilitate productive cooperation

6. For OECD countries: monitor and co-ordinate monitoring diaspora organizations to ensure that they are not feeding Civil war combatants. (relevant for Tamil Tigers)

7. Because dependence on a single primary commodity can encourage conflict (see the “oil economy syndrome or “resource curse”) promote diversification of exports

Conclusions:1. Ethnically diverse societies do not have a worse economic

performance and are actually safer than more homogenous societies

2. The strong accusations made against ethnic diversity are not supported by theoretical argument or empirical evidence.

3. Ethnic “Dominance” not “Fractionalization” is more problematic and can increase the risk of civil conflict and damage economic performance

4. “Fractionalized” societies are viable and secessionist movements should be discouraged.