Erik F. Øverland

Trondheim, 11th of September 2003

Foresight as a tool for Foresight as a tool for developmentdevelopment within within the Ministry for Labour the Ministry for Labour and Government and Government AdministrationAdministration

- experiences from Norway2030

Norway2030 - EVA-Forum Sept. 2003

Norway2030 - EVA-Forum Sept. 2003

From Forecasts to Scenarios

What was Norway2030?Objectives, process and

organization

Outcomes and learningsproductsmethodology and tools

Key Lessons process and organisation

some thematic issues

What is Foresight?

Foresight is the overall concept for most of the tools, practices and thinking oriented towards the future.

Foresight represents a different approach than forecasts and prognoses

•Forecast = simple mechanical “predictions”•Prognoses = weight upon probability

Moving beyond Forecasts

Definition (a try):

Foresight is a systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering and medium-to-long term vision building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilizing joint actions (FOREN 2003)

Moving beyond Forecasts

What kind of foresight tools do we got?

Delphi and survey-methodsScenario methodology (expert, dialogue, learning, participative)BackcastingPanelsWild CardsTechnology foresight/assessmentVision buildingGames and other methods

Scenarios are aimed at demonstrating a multitude of possible futures

Moving beyond Forecasts

TIME PERSPECTIVISM - a precondition for Ex ante Evaluation

Futures

Pasts Presents

Figur 4. Time perspectivism in perspectivist scenariobuilding (Backcasting as a tool for ex- ante evaluation)

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Scenario 5

Moving beyond Forecasts

If it is important to be conscious about which decisions the evaluations are made for, and what kind of consequences the evaluations may have, foresight methodology might be a helpful tool.

To develop a proper tools for making innovation policy real you need to go beyond Forecasts and Prognoses

Orientation towards several possible Futures through foresight ie. scenario methodology is to recommend

Experiences from Norway2030 may contribute to a such agenda

Moving beyond Forecasts

A scenario project initiated by the Royal Ministry of Government Administration in 1998

Finished 31th of December 200015 of 16 Ministries participated

More than 60 civil servants participated in addition to external participants from research institutes, media and work life

Comprehensive experimentation with scenario tools and -methodologiesOrientation towards public sector

Gained an excellence status in an internat. benchmark by the Cabinet Office in UK 2001

What was Norway2030?

Primary objective:

The process intend to strengthen the public administration’s preparedness for readjust-ment and development in relation to long-term challenges,

and

to improve the basis for the strategic planning of the Ministries

What was Norway2030?

Secondary objectives:

to provide five future views of public sector

to develop a larger common understanding of future challenges within the ministries

through active involvement being a major instrument for public management reform

the scenarios being reference for work in other parts of the public administration

What was Norway2030?

Organization:

Steering groupReference groupWorking groupsProject group

Two phases1) scenariolearning with broad participation

2) scenariostudy in a smaller group

What was Norway2030?

Phase 1Nov.98

Phase 2Jan.00

Dec.00

Dec.99

Phase 1: scenariolearning through scenariobuilding with 4 working groups through 10 seminars

- discussion of concepts- discussion of thematic issues- thematic ’situational diagnosis’- open process for identifying actors&factors- assessment and ranking of A&Fs- development of mini-scenarios- construction of partial scenarios through making creative combinations of

miniscenarios

Result: first partial report with 4x5=20 partial scenarios

What was Norway2030?

Phase 1Nov.98

Dec.99

Phase 2: scenariostudy through a minor group - writing the book

- discussion of perspectives and main content- structuring the scenarios- how to be surprising?- reflecting on method&tools- writing the chapters of the book- open review process with more than 40

external ”experts”- making presentations and doing information

work

Result: a monography

What was Norway2030?

Phase 2Jan.00

Dec.00

Phase 2: scenariostudy through a minor group - writing the book

- discussion of perspectives and main content- structuring the scenarios- how to be surprising?- reflecting on method&tools- writing the chapters of the book- open review process with more than 40

external ”experts”- making presentations and doing information

work

Result: a monography

What was Norway2030?

Phase 2Jan.00

Dec.00

The structure of the publication

PASTS

Process and methodology chapter

PRESENTS

Perspectives on the contemporary society

What is public sector today?

In what kind of landscape do we exist?

FUTURES

The five main scenarios

The wild Card

PRACTICES

From scenarios to politics

What is the possible use of the scenarios?

Perspectivist scenariobuilding in practice

How did we do it?

The structure of the scenarios:

Situational scenario. The society in Norway 2030

Here is the surprise element supposed to come

The story. Daily life in 2030 (meaning)

How and why did things happen? (plausibility)

economy

welfare

environment/culture

security

how do people live here?

Public sector (dependent variable - relevance)

democracy, politics and governance

new structures between the national levels and

the surroundings

The social historian 2030 (backcasting)

What was Norway2030?

• what is foresight&scenario-building?• what is policy development/ strategic

planning?• how to organise the relationship

between them?

Experiences from Norway2030 may be presented through three basic questions:

What was Norway2030?

How to construct

scenarios to make them

effective means in

strategic discourses

and policy

development?

Outcomes and learnings - Methods

HOW TO ORGANIZE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SCENARIOBUILDING AND STRATEGIC PLANNING?

V.

• Scenarios and strategic focus (I. - V. = scenario-perspectives)

I.

II.

III.IV.

Strategic focus

Outcomes and learnings - Methods

- important stakeholders should be involved

(’broad

participation’)

- a clear distinction between ’actors’ and

’factors’

- a clear distinction between situational

scenarios

and development scenarios

- show clearly who who have decide what in

the

scenarios, and then concretise

consequences of

such choices

- Actors/change agents or decision makers

should

be appropriate for contemporary or future

decision

units (relevance for own enterprise/nation)

Outcomes and learnings - Methods

-The scenarios should demonstrate real alternatives

- the scenarios should demonstrate clearly what perspective the scenario is founded on

-scenarios, then, are not universal scenarios, but always situational and special, or contextual

-the demonstration of counter forces are important

Outcomes and learnings - Methods

Good scenarios must represent:

surprise

meaning

plausibility

relevance

Back-casting

Outcomes and learnings - Methods

• anchoring a project in a ministry have both positive and negative aspects– pos: close to politicians, acknowledged institution,

contributed to real change across and within ministries

– neg: it was necessary to fight against the stereotype of ”the boring bureaucrat” in the public, difficult to define a liberal arena, some kind of isolation from other societal arenas

• scenarios must be constructed according to defined quality criteria to be useful in strategy discourses

Key Lessons

• scenario- and foresight activities should be more integrated in in the national innovation system (which in Norway is very fragmented)

• much to much dependence on personal interest and idealism by single individuals

• difficult to achieve institutional results – may be changed when foresight/scenariobuild. are integrated in a

national innovation policy

• scenarios must be constructed according to defined quality criteria to be useful in strategy discourses

Key Lessons

• Early stage analyses of the contemporary situation

• Actor orientation. Focus at current and potential future actors/decision makers

• Develop a central database with grand perspectives on future development at national, regional and global level

• A national Programme structure with several Sub-projects

Key Lessons

• Political institutionalisation ( eg. Committee for the Future in the finish Parliament)

• Involve Politicians, Academics and Representatives from the Media

• Differentiate clearly between the scenario activities and a following Vision building process/policy development

• Differentiate between situational scenarios (the situation in 2023) and development scenarios (the road from now to 2023)

Key Lessons

• International Profile. Aim at building international network as a part of the Programme

• Develop a pool of different foresight methodologies as a part of a national competence network for Foresight methodological development

Key Lessons

• Establish a Governance Project on innovation with extensive use of foresight!

• Don’t trust the past! Combine Innovation Policy and Scenario-tools

• Initialise a White Book on Innovation

• Explore the Potential of new generic Technologies! (Nano- Bio- & Gentechnologies)

Key Lessons

End of Presentation

The End