Erik F. Øverland
Trondheim, 11th of September 2003
Foresight as a tool for Foresight as a tool for developmentdevelopment within within the Ministry for Labour the Ministry for Labour and Government and Government AdministrationAdministration
- experiences from Norway2030
Norway2030 - EVA-Forum Sept. 2003
Norway2030 - EVA-Forum Sept. 2003
From Forecasts to Scenarios
What was Norway2030?Objectives, process and
organization
Outcomes and learningsproductsmethodology and tools
Key Lessons process and organisation
some thematic issues
What is Foresight?
Foresight is the overall concept for most of the tools, practices and thinking oriented towards the future.
Foresight represents a different approach than forecasts and prognoses
•Forecast = simple mechanical “predictions”•Prognoses = weight upon probability
Moving beyond Forecasts
Definition (a try):
Foresight is a systematic, participatory, future intelligence gathering and medium-to-long term vision building process aimed at present-day decisions and mobilizing joint actions (FOREN 2003)
Moving beyond Forecasts
What kind of foresight tools do we got?
Delphi and survey-methodsScenario methodology (expert, dialogue, learning, participative)BackcastingPanelsWild CardsTechnology foresight/assessmentVision buildingGames and other methods
Scenarios are aimed at demonstrating a multitude of possible futures
Moving beyond Forecasts
TIME PERSPECTIVISM - a precondition for Ex ante Evaluation
Futures
Pasts Presents
Figur 4. Time perspectivism in perspectivist scenariobuilding (Backcasting as a tool for ex- ante evaluation)
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Scenario 3
Scenario 4
Scenario 5
Moving beyond Forecasts
If it is important to be conscious about which decisions the evaluations are made for, and what kind of consequences the evaluations may have, foresight methodology might be a helpful tool.
To develop a proper tools for making innovation policy real you need to go beyond Forecasts and Prognoses
Orientation towards several possible Futures through foresight ie. scenario methodology is to recommend
Experiences from Norway2030 may contribute to a such agenda
Moving beyond Forecasts
A scenario project initiated by the Royal Ministry of Government Administration in 1998
Finished 31th of December 200015 of 16 Ministries participated
More than 60 civil servants participated in addition to external participants from research institutes, media and work life
Comprehensive experimentation with scenario tools and -methodologiesOrientation towards public sector
Gained an excellence status in an internat. benchmark by the Cabinet Office in UK 2001
What was Norway2030?
Primary objective:
The process intend to strengthen the public administration’s preparedness for readjust-ment and development in relation to long-term challenges,
and
to improve the basis for the strategic planning of the Ministries
What was Norway2030?
Secondary objectives:
to provide five future views of public sector
to develop a larger common understanding of future challenges within the ministries
through active involvement being a major instrument for public management reform
the scenarios being reference for work in other parts of the public administration
What was Norway2030?
Organization:
Steering groupReference groupWorking groupsProject group
Two phases1) scenariolearning with broad participation
2) scenariostudy in a smaller group
What was Norway2030?
Phase 1Nov.98
Phase 2Jan.00
Dec.00
Dec.99
Phase 1: scenariolearning through scenariobuilding with 4 working groups through 10 seminars
- discussion of concepts- discussion of thematic issues- thematic ’situational diagnosis’- open process for identifying actors&factors- assessment and ranking of A&Fs- development of mini-scenarios- construction of partial scenarios through making creative combinations of
miniscenarios
Result: first partial report with 4x5=20 partial scenarios
What was Norway2030?
Phase 1Nov.98
Dec.99
Phase 2: scenariostudy through a minor group - writing the book
- discussion of perspectives and main content- structuring the scenarios- how to be surprising?- reflecting on method&tools- writing the chapters of the book- open review process with more than 40
external ”experts”- making presentations and doing information
work
Result: a monography
What was Norway2030?
Phase 2Jan.00
Dec.00
Phase 2: scenariostudy through a minor group - writing the book
- discussion of perspectives and main content- structuring the scenarios- how to be surprising?- reflecting on method&tools- writing the chapters of the book- open review process with more than 40
external ”experts”- making presentations and doing information
work
Result: a monography
What was Norway2030?
Phase 2Jan.00
Dec.00
The structure of the publication
PASTS
Process and methodology chapter
PRESENTS
Perspectives on the contemporary society
What is public sector today?
In what kind of landscape do we exist?
FUTURES
The five main scenarios
The wild Card
PRACTICES
From scenarios to politics
What is the possible use of the scenarios?
Perspectivist scenariobuilding in practice
How did we do it?
The structure of the scenarios:
Situational scenario. The society in Norway 2030
Here is the surprise element supposed to come
The story. Daily life in 2030 (meaning)
How and why did things happen? (plausibility)
economy
welfare
environment/culture
security
how do people live here?
Public sector (dependent variable - relevance)
democracy, politics and governance
new structures between the national levels and
the surroundings
The social historian 2030 (backcasting)
What was Norway2030?
• what is foresight&scenario-building?• what is policy development/ strategic
planning?• how to organise the relationship
between them?
Experiences from Norway2030 may be presented through three basic questions:
What was Norway2030?
How to construct
scenarios to make them
effective means in
strategic discourses
and policy
development?
Outcomes and learnings - Methods
HOW TO ORGANIZE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN SCENARIOBUILDING AND STRATEGIC PLANNING?
V.
• Scenarios and strategic focus (I. - V. = scenario-perspectives)
I.
II.
III.IV.
Strategic focus
Outcomes and learnings - Methods
- important stakeholders should be involved
(’broad
participation’)
- a clear distinction between ’actors’ and
’factors’
- a clear distinction between situational
scenarios
and development scenarios
- show clearly who who have decide what in
the
scenarios, and then concretise
consequences of
such choices
- Actors/change agents or decision makers
should
be appropriate for contemporary or future
decision
units (relevance for own enterprise/nation)
Outcomes and learnings - Methods
-The scenarios should demonstrate real alternatives
- the scenarios should demonstrate clearly what perspective the scenario is founded on
-scenarios, then, are not universal scenarios, but always situational and special, or contextual
-the demonstration of counter forces are important
Outcomes and learnings - Methods
Good scenarios must represent:
surprise
meaning
plausibility
relevance
Back-casting
Outcomes and learnings - Methods
• anchoring a project in a ministry have both positive and negative aspects– pos: close to politicians, acknowledged institution,
contributed to real change across and within ministries
– neg: it was necessary to fight against the stereotype of ”the boring bureaucrat” in the public, difficult to define a liberal arena, some kind of isolation from other societal arenas
• scenarios must be constructed according to defined quality criteria to be useful in strategy discourses
Key Lessons
• scenario- and foresight activities should be more integrated in in the national innovation system (which in Norway is very fragmented)
• much to much dependence on personal interest and idealism by single individuals
• difficult to achieve institutional results – may be changed when foresight/scenariobuild. are integrated in a
national innovation policy
• scenarios must be constructed according to defined quality criteria to be useful in strategy discourses
Key Lessons
• Early stage analyses of the contemporary situation
• Actor orientation. Focus at current and potential future actors/decision makers
• Develop a central database with grand perspectives on future development at national, regional and global level
• A national Programme structure with several Sub-projects
Key Lessons
• Political institutionalisation ( eg. Committee for the Future in the finish Parliament)
• Involve Politicians, Academics and Representatives from the Media
• Differentiate clearly between the scenario activities and a following Vision building process/policy development
• Differentiate between situational scenarios (the situation in 2023) and development scenarios (the road from now to 2023)
Key Lessons
• International Profile. Aim at building international network as a part of the Programme
• Develop a pool of different foresight methodologies as a part of a national competence network for Foresight methodological development
Key Lessons
• Establish a Governance Project on innovation with extensive use of foresight!
• Don’t trust the past! Combine Innovation Policy and Scenario-tools
• Initialise a White Book on Innovation
• Explore the Potential of new generic Technologies! (Nano- Bio- & Gentechnologies)
Key Lessons
End of Presentation
The End