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Migration Patterns of Celtic Tiger Young and other Residents of the Irish Habitat

Where did Paddy, Pawel and Peng go next?

Corona Joyce, Philip O’Connell and Emma Quinn

Presentation to Metropolis Conference, Ponta Delgada, Sept 14th, 2011


Expected Impact of Crisis

Immigrants suffer more Employment losses

Economic sectors, less secure contracts, lower job tenure

Net migration falls Less immigration or more emigration? Who leaves? Where do they go?


‘Moral Panic’: Return of Mass Emigration?


4 Crises Property bubble Banking collapse Fiscal crisis of the state Mass unemployment


GNP Growth Rate: GNP down by 3.5% in 2008, 10.7% in 2009 and 2% in 2010

Source: Quarterly Economic Commentary


Rate of Unemployment: 4.2% in 2005 to 14.2% in 2011

Source: QNHS


Unemployment Rates:14% among Irish, >20% among UK and EU-NMS

Source: QNHS


Gap between Irish and Non-Irish Unemployment Rates 2004-2011

Source: QNHS


Irish Labour Migration Policy in the Current Downturn

Further restriction on work permits for low paid non-EU workers in 2009.

Revision of the list of occupations eligible for Green Cards in the €30,000-€60,000 salary per annum category.

Increased controls on non-EU students. Immigration permission to reside for workers who have

held permits for 5 years + (in absence of statutory long-term residence status)

Six month ‘breathing space’ in relation to workers made redundant.

Third-Level Graduate Scheme designed to allow graduates to work in Ireland.


Changes in Employment and Population, Adult Non-Nationals, 2008 q1 to 2011 q1, 1,000’s:

Employment fell by 140,000, population by 126,000

Source: QNHS


Changes in Employment and Adult Population by Nationality, 2008 q1 to 2011 q1, 1,000’s

Source: QNHS


Annual Changes in Adult Population: Irish and Non-Irish Nationals

Source: Population and Migration Estimates


% Change in Adult Population, by Nationality, 2008 q1 to 2011 q1:

Relative decline greater among EU-13 and UK nationals

Source: QNHS


Migration Flows, Ireland, 1987-2010:Inflow down from 110,000 in 2007 to 31,000 in 2010Outflow up from 42,000 to 65,000



Immigration by Nationality, 2004-2010, 1,000’s:EU-NMS: from 53,000 in 2007 to 6,000 in 2010Rest of World: from 20,000 to 5,000



Emigration by Nationality, 2006-2010, 1,000’s:35% Irish, 38% EU-NMS in 2009-10



Marital Status and % Not in a Family Unit by Nationality Group, Aged 20-44, 2008 & 2010

Irish UK EU-13 EU-NMS ROW

2008 2010 2008 2010 2008 2010 2008 2010 2008 2010

Single 57% 56% 39% 45% 72% 60% 60% 46% 38% 30%

Married 40% 41% 55% 51% 26% 37% 37% 50% 59% 66%

Other 3% 3% 6% 5% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Not in family unit

14% 15% 15% 16% 48% 35% 40% 29% 30% 21%

Source: QNHS


Emigration by Destination, 2004-2010, 1,000’s:EU-13 and UK increasing



Emigration by Nationality and by Destination, 1,000’s

2009 2010Nationality Destination Nationality Destination

Irish 18.4 27.7UK 2.9 11.9 2.6 14.4EU-13 5.5 6.6 7.8 11.0EU-NMS 30.1 22.9 19.1 13.8RoW 8.3 23.8 8.1 26.1Total 65.1 65.1 65.3 65.3

•Substantial emigration to Rest of World •UK, EU-13 and Rest of World: destinations exceed nationals•EU-NMS migrating onwards


Conclusion Crisis had a dramatic impact on

immigrants Particularly EU-NMS in labour market

Immigration fell by more than emigration Who Emigrated?

Largest numbers: EU-NMS Population decline related to ‘costs’

EU-13 and UK declined by more, Rest of World by less

% single individuals in migrant population fell

Where did they go? Substantial migration to Rest of World & UK Many EU-NMS migrating onwards

emn ireland | migration patterns of celtic tiger young and other residents of the irish habitat...

Documents

qnhs slide

eunms source

economic commentary

adult population

nonirish nationals source

migration estimates

state mass unemployment