Adapting to Ontario’s Changing Climate

Eastern Ontario Local Food Conference Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change

November 23, 2016

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Global Context – Changing Climate

• Burning of fossil fuels since the industrial revolution has released large amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) that were trapped in Earth's crust for millions of years

• By trapping heat, we are heating up the atmosphere, which has effect of changing climate patterns

• Earth’s atmosphere today contains 42 per cent more carbon dioxide (CO2) than 200 years ago

• Projections suggest a 3.5-40C degree increase in average surface temperature by the end of this century

• World faces increase in weather variability/

extreme weather events as result of climate change such as floods, extreme heat, and drought

Source: IPCC 5th Assessment Report – Working Group 1 – The Physical Science Basis, 2013

Ontario Context – Changing Climate

• Average temperatures in Ontario have increased by 1.4ºC since 1948

• Scientists project that by 2050, the average annual temperature in Ontario will increase by 2.5°C to 3.7°C

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Impacts vary on a regional scale and are already affecting every economic sector (human health, energy, transportation, tourism, recreation etc.)

Changing Climate – Impacts

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Rising average temperatures lead to more widespread extreme weather events, like severe storms, flooding, droughts, and heat waves.

Ontario has already experienced decreased winter tourism (availability of snow) and increased summer tourism.

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A warm March and a severe frost in April 2012 saw over 80% of Ontario’s apple crop lost to frost damage

Hail damage to vineyard

An increase in variability is proving challenging for the agricultural sector (e.g. wine industry and types of grapes grown; asparagus may be ready for harvest sooner, or prone to late frost damage).

Increased climate variability (e.g. extreme heat/drought) make crops more vulnerable to pest infestations (Corn earworm, Helicoverpa zea pictured below).

Climate Variability

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Flooding Events In May 2013, heavy rains and subsequent flooding caused Thunder Bay to declare a state of emergency after homes and infrastructure were flooded and sewer systems overloaded as parts of the city got more than 100mm of rain. Pump failures at Thunder Bay’s sewage treatment plant also resulted in the flooding of hundreds of basements.

In August 2014, the City of Burlington received nearly two months of rain (191mm) in approximately eight hours. The record rainfall caused flooding and damages across the city. Roads, highways, and more than 3,000 homes were flooded. The Insurance Bureau of Canada estimated insured losses to be just over $90M.

In September 2016, both Windsor and Tecumseh declared a state of emergency after more than 190mm fell in Tecumseh, while 80mm of rainfall was recorded in Windsor over two days. The rainstorm inundated streets, flooded hundreds of homes, impacted businesses, and halted transportation routes around the community.

There have been a number of catastrophic events in recent years that can be attributed to increasingly variable and volatile weather patterns:

• In June 2010, a wind and thunderstorm event in Leamington resulted in $120M in insurance claims.

• An August 2011 tornado in Goderich resulted in heavy damage to the city’s downtown core and disruptions in electricity and natural gas utilities.

• In October 2012, Hurricane Sandy devastated portions of the Caribbean and the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeastern United States, including impacts in Southeastern Canada and the US mid-west. Economic impacts from losses due to damage and business interruption are currently being estimated between $30 and $50 billion.

Severe Storms

Photo: Tornado damage in Vaughan, 2009

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Economic Impacts

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1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Loss + Loss AdjustmentExpenses

Source: IBC Facts Book, PCS, CatIQ, Swiss Re, Munich Re & Deloitte Values in 2015 $ CAN

Note: not all extreme weather is climate-change induced

Quebec Floods

Eastern Ice Storm

Ontario Wind and Rain

Alberta and Toronto Floods

Ontario is experiencing the impacts of climate change across all sectors.

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llion

What Does It Mean For Ontario? • Decision-makers and community leaders do not always have access to the

right information and tools, and there is a lack of expertise/capacity across sectors.

• This means that decisions, related to Ontario’s long-term food security,

infrastructure investments and resource management from the boreal forests to the Great lakes, are not fully taking climate change into account.

• In the face of a changing climate the province needs to come to grips with: • How to support communities to plan for a changing climate • How to ensure long-term return on investments • Ensuring infrastructure is not built to the wrong standards • Our agricultural sector plans accordingly to limit impacts and maximise

opportunities

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HOW IS ONTARIO PLANNING FOR CLIMATE CHANGE?

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Adapting to Climate Impacts • Building on the momentum created by the Expert Panel, the province released

Climate Ready: Ontario’s Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan in 2011. • Climate Ready outlined a total of 37 actions to be taken by 10 ministries

(MOECC, MNRF, MEDEI (previously MOI and MEDTE), MTO, Education, Tourism, MNDM, MMAH, OMAFRA), over the course of four years, 2011 to 2014.

• The plan included as one of the 5 main goals to “achieve a better understanding of future climate change impacts across the province”, and actions including:

• Enhancing Climate Related Monitoring • Undertaking Research Partnerships for Climate Modelling • Establish a Climate Modelling Collaborative

• The Plan served as a first step in taking action across government on adaptation. It contains a number of actions to be taken by ministries including two overarching actions to ensure the ongoing mainstreaming of impacts and adaptation across government.

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Climate Ready – Vision & Goals

Current Government Commitment The government has identified adaptation as a priority: • Mandate letter (2014): “Supporting the Secretary of the Cabinet and the President of the Treasury Board

to ensure climate change is taken into account in the government decision-making process. This will include …adaptation considerations for public infrastructure investments.

• Climate Change Strategy (2015 ): the province committed to“ establish a climate change modelling collaborative … a one-window source for climate data. .. to help both public and private sectors make informed and evidence-based decisions regarding adapting to climate change and increasing resilience;” and to “integrate climate change adaptation considerations in infrastructure decision-making.”

• Ontario’s Climate Change Action Plan (2016): release a new Climate Change Adaptation Plan in 2017, which will include details of the Climate Change Modelling Consortium.

• September 2016 mandate letter: “Working with partner ministers, stakeholders and Indigenous partners, develop a Climate Change Adaptation Plan for Ontario that sets out priorities and actions Ontario will take to adapt to the effects of Climate Change.”

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