early warning and response bulletin

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Early Warning And Emergency Response Directorate , NDRMC

Website: www.dppc.gov.et P.O. Box 5686, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Email: [email protected]

CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR THE KIREMT, 2018

Based on the global, regional and local weather systems

as well as their dynamical/statistical predictions, the

following conclusion can be drawn for the Kiremt

climate outlook of 2018.

The onset of the seasonal rain is expected to be

within the normal periods across the southwestern

and western Ethiopia, and slightly late over North-

west.

The weather forecast shows normal Cessation will be

practiced across Kiremt benefiting areas.

Many places of northern, northeastern, central,

western, southwestern, eastern, and adjoining Rift

Valley areas are expected to receive dominantly

above normal rainfall.

In addition, southern highlands and southern Ethiopia

are likely to receive normal tending to above normal

rainfall activity. On the other hand, normal rainfall is

expected over pocket areas of northwestern Ethiopia.

Occasional heavy fall is likely to occur at some point

in time during the season at places where above

normal rainfall is anticipated.

According to the monthly weather forecast, heavy

falls followed by flash flood is expected across some

places of half parts of western Ethiopia, North

Eastern and eastern parts of the country during July

2018.

As it is known, maximum rainfall amount and

relatively uniform distribution is expected during

July, close River and dams monitoring is so

advisable.

Moreover, during the first dekade July 2018, heavy

falls will result in flash flood at some places of

Oromia, Amhara, SNNPR, Benishangul Gumuz,

Gambella, Tigray, regions and Addis Ababa.

Thus, concerned bodies need to give attention ahead of

time to reduce the negative impact of flood across the

areas including all flood prone areas of the country.

From the past experience, for the likely of water born

disease after flood occurrence is high related

preparedness should be done ahead of time.

Early Warning Bulletin JULY 06, 2018

The 6th round of PSNP has been 88% completed and was dispatched in Somalia alone. The 7

th round

of PSNP has been completed (100%) and was dispatched in Oromia alone.

EWER Directorate, NDRMC www.dppc.gov.et

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Weather outlook and its possible impact for

the coming month of July, 2018

Under normal circumstance, Kiremt rainfall is

expected to be expanded and strengthened across

Kiremt benefiting areas during the month of July.

The rainfall during July is usually accompanied

by thunderstorm and hailstorm with prolonged

period of time.

Based on the monthly weather forecast given by

NMA, rainfall distribution is expected to cover

areas where normal rainfall starts (half parts of

western Ethiopia, north eastern, and eastern parts

of the country) as a result of strengthening of rain

bring systems during the July, 2018.

Furthermore, Oromia (East and West Wellega,

Jimma, IlluAbabbora, all Shoa zone, West and

East Harerghe, Arsi and Bale), Amhara (East

Gojam, North and South gondar Zones, Bahir Dar

Zuria, Awi, north Shoa, and North and South

Wello Zone), SNNPR (Kefa, Bench Maji,

Guraghe, Hadya, Welaita, Dawuro, Gamo Gofa,

Sidama Zones), all Zones of Benishangul Gumuz,

Gambella and Tigray Regions including Addis

Ababa will get normal and above normal rainfall

during the first dekad July, 2018.

The expected near normal rainfall over Somali

(JigJiga and Siti zones), Dire Dawa, Hareri, Afar

( Zone 1, 3, 4 and 5) and SNNPR (South Omo

and Segen) during the month of July, 2018 would

favour the availability of pasture and drinking

water to some extent.

Issues needing attention based on the

above seasonal weather forecast given

by NMA

The expected dominantly above normal rainfall over

northern, northeastern, central, western, southwestern,

eastern parts of the country and adjoining Rift Valley

areas during the season would result in flash flood as

well as overflow of rivers. Therefore, the concerned

people should take appropriate prevention measures

ahead of time particularly over low-lying areas,

near river banks and in areas where the soil water

infiltration capacity is poor ahead of time to

mitigate the effect of flood events on human lives and

livelihood. Likewise, to keep safe our dams found in

different regions from over flow and siltation, close

monitoring is also advisable during Kiremt 2018.

Water logging problem around water retention

areas might be possible in areas with poor

drainage system. For that reason, responsible

bodies need to work on possible water drainage

techniques early in order to reduce the negative

consequence of unnecessary moisture

concentration.

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The anticipated dominantly above normal rainfall

over many places of northern, northeastern,

central, western, southwestern, eastern, and

adjoining Rift Valley areas might trigger

landslides, particularly in susceptible

mountainous landscape.

Water born human diseases like AWD Outbreak

is likely to occur after any flood occurrence due

to heavy falls, as a result of poor sanitation and

improper use of contaminated water for drinking

and cleaning vegetable products in case of urban

agriculture.

Animal diseases are likely to emerge due to

contamination of pasture with flood across the

low-lying pastoral areas. Thus concerned bodies

need to carry out proper preparedness ahead of

time to reduce the impact on human and livestock

diseases.

In case of crop pest condition the expected

dominantly above normal rainfall in most parts of

Meher growing areas of the country might

suppress the infestation, distribution and the

overall normal biological processes of Fall

Armyworm. Thus, the concerned personnel should

exploit this good opportunity and use effective

protection measures to eradicate the spread of

pest in the areas. Nevertheless, in some pocket

areas where the rainfall distribution is likely

erratic, the infestation of the Fall Armyworm can

be aggravated. Therefore, the responsible

personnel need to give better attention on the

control of the distribution of the pest in areas

where below normal rainfall is likely.

Human Health, Nutrition and Drinking Water

Human Health

During the last two weeks of June 2018, 498

acute watery diarrhea (AWD) cases were reported

from Mile, Dubti, Afambo and Asayita woredas

of Afar Region and control measures are

undergoing.

Reportedly, unmentioned numbers of scabies

cases were reported from Dire Dawa City

administration, and it is totally controlled.

Similarly, 24 diarrhea cases were reported from

Guji Zone (Adola Rede Woreda), West Hararghe

Zone (Habro and Guba Koricha Woredas),

Borena Zone (Moyale woreda) of Oromia Region.

Following meher rain, a total of 116 malaria cases

were reported from Miyo, Taltale and Arero

woredas of Borena Zone of Oromia Region.

Similarly, unknown numbers of Malaria cases

were reported from Dire Dawa City

administration, Somali and Gambella regions.

The numbers of cases have been increasing in

Gambela Region following the currently Meher

rain. Reportedly, 4 typhoid cases were reported

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from West Hararghe Zone (Habro woreda) and

Guji Zone (Adola Rede woreda) of Oromia

Region.

Nutrition Situation

During the reporting period, unmentioned number

of malnutrition cases were observed on under five

children, and Lactating and pregnant women

living as IDPs in Bale Zone of Ormia Region.

Reportedly, a total of 981 OTP (842 cases) and

SC (139 cases) cases were reported from SNNPR.

Similarly, unknown numbers of <5 children

malnutrition cases were reported from Guji Zone

(Adola woreda) of Oromia Region.

In the third week of June, 109 under five severe

acute malnutrition cases were report from Tigray

Region. Of these total, 98 cases and 11 cases have

been receiving treatment in Outpatient therapeutic

program (OTP) and in Stabilization Center (SC),

respectively. Most of the Cases were from Central

and Eastern Zones of Tigray Region.

In Harari Region 33 SAM cases have been

receiving treatmentin Outpatient therapeutic

program (OTP) and Stabilization Center (SC) and

of these 18 cases are found in OTP and 15 cases

are found in SC.

In Amhara Region, world food program (WFP)

was providing TSFP for moderately malnourished

under five children and pregnant and lactating

women found in 21 woredas (9 priority one

woredas and 12 second generation woredas).

Similarly, in SNNPR, 10 Second Generation and

18 priority1 woredas were receiving TSFP ration.

Drinking Water

Following Meher and Belg rain, improvement of

water for human drink was reported from most

parts of the country. However, shortage of water

was reported from pocket areas of Oromia Region

(East Shewa Zone Fantale Woreda, 10 woredas of

East Hararghe Zone), Amhara Region (North

Gonder Zone Janamora, Beyeda, Telemit and

Debark woredas, Central Gondar Zone Mierab

Armacho, Miserak Belesa and Kinfazi Woredas,

East Gojam Zone Bibugn, Gonacha siso Ibse,

Enebise Sarmidir and Enarji enawuga Woredas,

North Shewa Zone Mida Woremo, Marha Bete,

Minjer Shenkora and Berehet Woredas and

Oromia Zone Bati Woreda), Somali Region (Erer

Zone Wangayi and Yohob woredas) and from

IDP sites found in Lega Hida and Salahadi

woredas and Afar Region (Eldere, Kori, Dubiti,

Berahili Erabiti, Dalol, Teru and and Gede

woredas).

To minimize these problems, 17 trucks were

under water rationing for 8 woredas of East

Hararghe Zone of Oromia Region. Similarly, in 6

woredas and 3 Zones of Amhara Region,

12,422,500 litre of water was distributed for a

total of 91,503 beneficiaries by Regional Disaster

Prevention and Food Security office and

Wagimira Zone in collaboration with Plan

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International Ethiopia. Unmentioned number of

trucks is under water tracking in Somali and Afar

Regions.

The coming month’s forecasts

Following Meher rain, there will be a fear of

acute watery diarrhea (AWD) expansion in all

Regions bordering to Afar Region and it

needs continues follow up.

The number of malaria case will be increased

in malaria prone areas due to favorable

weather conditions created for malaria vector

(Mosquito) breeding and this needs

implementation of strong disease surveillance.

The malnutrition cases will increase following

the hunger season and it needs strong routine

screening.

Recommendation

Mobilization and distribution of AWD,

malaria, scabies, diarrhea, typhoid supplies

for affected Regions.

Distribution of Antibiotics, Laundry & body

soaps for scabies affected areas.

Conduct surveillance at community level.

Public gathering health education on scabies

and AWD, prevention and control measures.

Promotion of good personal hygiene

practices.

Promoting washing/cleaning of patient’s

clothes and other contaminated materials.

Timely TSFP provision for those moderately

malnourished under five children and

pregnant and lactating women.

Crop and livestock condition based on the

weekly Regional Situation Update Report

Crop condition

SNNPR

The regional report stated that the Belg season

agricultural practices were on cease and crops

were found at various phonological stages. At

early sowing areas, crops were found at maturity,

on the other hand lately sown crops were at

vegetative, flowering and early maturity stage.

The Meher season agricultural practice had been

started at mid of June and first round tillage was

started in most parts of the region.

Oromia

In the region, Meher season activities have

already been started and crops were found from

sowing to early vegetative stage.

Amhara Region

In the region, a total of 240,146 ha of land had

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been planned to be cultivated in the Belg season

from which 194,653 ha was cultivated and

125,997 ha was covered with various crop

varities. Crops were found at early growing and

vegetative stage, and 21930 ha of crop were at

harvesting stage in North Shewa and South Wolo

Zones. Besides, the region had planned 4,465,835

ha of land to cultivete in the Meher season among

which 3,766,945 ha of land was on land

preparation and 1,076,640 ha of land being

covered with crops in 11 Zones.

Afar Region

The regional report stated that crops like Maiz,

Tomato, Cotton and Onion were sown in Afambo,

Asayeta, Awa, Awura, Dubeti and Amibara

Zones.

Gambella Region

In the region, Meher crop cultivation has already

been started and crops were found from early

growing to flowering stage.

Benishangul Gumuz Region

As the region stated, Meher season agricultural

activities had been started and crops were found

at early vegetative stage.

Tigray Region

Belg crops were being harvested as the regional

report stated and Meher crops were at early

growing stage.

Dire Dawa City Administration

As the regional report stated, Meher season crops

were found at early vegetative stage.

Harari Region

In the region, Meher season crops were found at

early vegetative stage.

Somali Region

As the region stated, crops were at maturity in

Dawa, Fafen and Siti Zones, but in areas where

flooded, sown crops were fully damaged and it

might couse food shortage in the area.

Crop pests and diseases

SNNPR

As indicated by the Region, Fall Armyworm has

been observed on Belg crops and the risk was

minimized by chemical and traditional methods

of contol. But, on irrigated crops in Sidama Zone

(Hawasa Zuriya, Shebedino, Borecha and Loka

Abaya Woredas), South Omo 7 Woredas (59

Kebele), GamoGofa Zone in 9 Woreda (97

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Kebele), Wolayeta Zone of 7 Woreda (in 112

Kebele), Dawuro Zone (Esera, Tocha and Mareqa

Woredas), KembataTemebaro Zone of 5 Woreda

(in 39 Kebele), Kafa Zones of all Woredas (in 59

kebeles), Konta Special Woreda (39 Kebeles),

Benchi Maji 5 Woredas (31 Kebeles), Sheka

Zone all Woredas (15 Kebeles), Baseketo Special

Woreda (9 Kebeles), Segen Leyu Hezebochi

Zones 4 Woredas (Burji, Konso, Derashe and

Amaro) in 22 Kebeles, Selete Zone 1 Woreda (3

Kebeles) and Gedio Zone Dila Zuriya wored (2

Kebeles). A total of 7576.47 ha land was infested.

Even though Chemical and cultural practices

were used to protect the land from pest damage,

the infestation of the worm was increasing from

time to time. Therefore, the concernd personel

need to give attention.

Oromia Region

The incidence of Fall Armyworm has been

observed on Maize and Sorghum crops in Bale,

West Hararghe, Guji, West Guji, Bale Zone, Arsi,

Jima, East Hararghe, East Wolega, West Woleg,

and Kelem Wolega Zone in 27 Woredas as

indicted by the Regional report. As a result, a

total of 36,564.5 ha of land was infested and

controlling effort was underway. Stock borer was

observed in West Haraghe Zones of 29 Woredas.

Amhara Region

In the region, infestation of American Fall

Armyworm was observed in North Shewa Zone (3

Woredas), Oromia Zone (3 woredas), North Wolo

Zone (9 Woredas) and West Gojjam Zone (one

Woreda) on Maize crop. A total of 5,200 ha of the

crop was infested out of which 3403 ha was

protected through chemical and traditional

methods.

Tigray Region

The region stated that Fall Armyworm infestation

was observed in North Western Zone (Tahetay

Qoraro Woreda) and Southern Zones of two

Woredas (Mayechew and Raya). A total of

4063.75 ha was infested and traditional methods

were used to control the pest.

Afar Region

The infestation of Fall Armyworm was seen in

Zone 1, Zone 3, and Zone 5 of the region.

Chemical method was used to control the

infestation.

Somali Region

The report of the region stated that Cut Worm,

Fall Armyworm and Stalk Borer infestation

were observed in Jarer, Earer and Dawa Zones,

respectivly.

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Pasture and Livestock Drinking Water

SNNPR

The report of the region for the last two weeks of

June 2018 indicated that there was no scarcity of

pasture and water supply in the majority of the

region, except a shortage of pasture land in the

central Zones. The adequate supply of pasture and

livestock drinking water was mainly due to

sufficient rainfall of the Belg season.

Oromia Region

The scarcity of pasture in Fentale woreda of East

Shewa Zone reported in the first two weeks of

June was still continuing for the last weeks of the

month.

Amhara Region

The report of the region for the last two weeks of

June 2018 indicated that the scarcity of pasture

and animal water supply that had been reported in

the past weeks was still prevailing in North

Gonder Zone (Janamora, Beyeda, Telemit &

Debark Zuria Woredas), Waghimira Zone (Sahila,

Ziqula & Abergele Woredas) and Oromia Zone

(Bati, Debre harewa & Jile Timuga). In North

Shoa Zone (Berehet, Meda Woromo, Merha Bete

& Minjar Shenkora), East Gojjam Zone (Enebse

Sar midir, Bibugn, Goncha & Enarji Enawuga

Woredas) and Central Gondar Zone (East Belesa

and Kinfaz woredas), the scarcity of livestock

water supply reported in the previous

subseconsequent weeks was still continuing in the

past two weeks. The report also indicated that

there was a slight scarcity of pasture and livestock

water supply in South Wollo Zone (low land

kebeles of Argoba and Kutaber woredas) and

South Gondar Zone (Simada, Este, Lay Gaynt and

Tach Gaynt woredas). In North wollo Zone, there

was scarcity of livestock water supply in Raya

Qobo (in 4 kebeles) and Wadila (in low land

kebeles) woredas. It was also reported that Habru,

Gidan, Dawunt, Raya Kobo, Meket, Wadila and

Bugina Woredas were deficient in pasture

availability.

Afar region

The report of the region for the previous two

weeks of June dictated that there was scarcity of

livestock feed in all woredas of the region.

Livestock Disease Outbreak

SNNPR

Despite the absence of livestock disease in

outbreak form, Lumpy Skin Disease was reported

in Alle woreda of Segen Akababi People Zone

and Amaro woreda (14 lowland kebeles). To

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control the disease, treatment and vaccination

campain have been implemented. The same

disease was also reported in Gena Bosa woreda (6

kebeles) of Dawuro Zone where the woreda

encountered scarcity of drugs and vaccine to

control the disease.

Oromia region

In Boke Woreda of West Harerghe (Meyu

kebele), Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD) was reported

in 45 cattle, and it was controlled timely. LSD

was also reported in Das Woreda of Borena Zone

which affected 11 cattle of 4 farmers, and the

affected animals were being treated. Foot and

Mouth Disease (FMD) cases were reported in

Das, Arero and Dilo Woredas of Buno Bedele for

which treatments were being given. In Abe

Dengoro Woreda of Huro Gudru Wollega Zone,

on 29/9/2010 E.C, 13 cattle of a farmer were died

which was due to consumption of unknown plant.

Amhara region

African Horse Sickness was reported in Enarji

Enawuga Woreda of East Gojjam Zone which

killed 26 donkeys. In Kallu Woreda of South

Wollo Zone, Blackleg was reported in cattle of 2

kebeles. To control the disease (Blackleg), 900

cattle were vaccinated.

Gambella region

The regional report indicated that

Trypanosomiasis was reported in Abebo, Mekoy

and Jikawo Woredas.

Somali region

Contagious Caprine Pleuro Pneumonia in goats,

Contagious Bovine Pleura Pneumonia in cattle,

Peste des Petits Ruminants in goats and various

Gastro Intestinal Parasite infections in sheep and

goats were reported in Dawa Zone. Anthrax and

unknown disease with clinical sign of diarrhea in

Siti Zone, and Sheep pox in Dolo Zone were

reported. The regional report also included an

unknown disease of camels manifested by clinical

sign of cephalomegaly (swelling of head).

Issues needing attention

For areas with scarce pasture and livestock

drinking water, the concerned body should

urgently respond to assist the provision of

alternative animal feeds.

In some regions where there was livestock

deaths of unknown cause, appropriate

diagnoses measures should be implemented to

identify and confirm the cause which inturn

helps apply proper control measures.

The responsible body should provide the

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required drugs where they were reported as

scarce.

As the the season is rainy in most parts of

the country, rapid reproduction of disease

vectors is expected. So, the concerned

bodies should be alarmed to implement

vector and vector borne disease prevention

measures.

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Annex 1

As can be seen from NDVI picture (21-30 June 2018 METEOSAT) Vegetation Greenness was

below normal. Vegetation Greenness was observed over western, northern, north western and

north eastern, including some parts of eastern and central Ethiopia. On the other hand, southern,

south eastern, some parts of central, eastern, western and pocket areas of northern Ethiopia

exhibited above normal vegetation greenness. Normal vegetation greenness was observed over

most of northern, north eastern, south eastern and some areas of eastern, central and western

parts of the country.

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