Early Flood Warning System in Pakistan

ByByByBy

Muhammad Muhammad Muhammad Muhammad TahirTahirTahirTahir AnwarAnwarAnwarAnwar

Director GeneralDirector GeneralDirector GeneralDirector GeneralM/o National Food Security and ResearchM/o National Food Security and ResearchM/o National Food Security and ResearchM/o National Food Security and Research

Government of PakistanGovernment of PakistanGovernment of PakistanGovernment of Pakistan

Asian Water Cycle ForumAsian Water Cycle ForumAsian Water Cycle ForumAsian Water Cycle Forum –––– 2016201620162016March 1March 1March 1March 1----2, 20162, 20162, 20162, 2016

Tokyo,Tokyo,Tokyo,Tokyo, JapanJapanJapanJapan

Early Warning System - Rationale

• Early warning systems (EWS) received very high attention during last two decades after some extra-large disasters in the world

• Countries vulnerable to hydro-met disasters have realized the significance of EWS at national and local levels

• Like many other parts of the world, Pakistan is also extremely vulnerable to hydro-meteorological disasters

• In Pakistan, more than 70% hydro-met disasters occur during monsoon season

2

• Very high degree of vulnerability of hydro-met in Pakistan, where necessity tends to force the poor to occupy the most vulnerable areas

• Long history of floods – Pakistan experienced 20 major floods during last 66 years

• Reported financial loss of more than US$ 39 billion

• Trends of repeated hydro-met disasters resulting in high damages led to develop an integrated Effective EWS at national and local levels

Contd.....

3

Forecasting: Will there be an

event?

Monitoring of precursorsto natural events

Initiate actions according to

emergency plans

YES

NO

Issue a Warning or an Alert

EWS – Conceptual Framework

4

Hydro-meteorological Disasters in Pakistan

Floods (Flash/Urban Floods)

Droughts

Cyclones

Heat/Cold Waves

Wind/Dust Storms

Fog

GLOF

Landslides - Avalanches

5

Forecasts / Warnings relating to major Natural Disasters are being provided by@.

� Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)

Nodal Organizations for Monitoring and EWS

� Provincial Irrigation Departments (PIDs)

� National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA)

� Provincial Disaster Management Authorities (PDMAs)

� Federal Flood Commission (FFC)

� Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA)

� Health

� Pak Navy6

National Weather Forecasting Centre (NWFC)

Islamabad

National Seismic Monitoring &Tsunami Early Warning Centre

(NTWC)Karachi

Marine Meteorology & Tropical Cyclone Early Warning Centre (TCWC)

Karachi

Flood Forecasting Division (FFD)Lahore

Flash Flood Forecasting & Warning Centre

For Lai Nullah BasinIslamabad

National Drought Monitoring Centre (NDMC)

Islamabad

Specialized Early Warning Centers

Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD)

7

Technical and Technological Aspects of the System

Flood Forecasting Tools

� Real Time Hydro Meteorological Data(WAPDA and Irrigation Departments)

� Real Time and Prognostic Weather Charts(PMD NWF Centre and Global Products)

� Numerical Weather Prediction Models(PMD NWF Centre and Global Products)

� Hydrological Models / Statistical Models

� Satellite Data (Hydro Estimator, JAXA)

� Weather Radar Network

9

Weather ChartsNumerical Weather Products

(HRM – High Resolution Regional Model)NOMAD - NOAA Operational Model Archive Distribution System

NCEP

Technique

Short, Medium and Long Range Weather Forecasts

Statistical Method

EPS: ENSEMBLE Prediction System(Probabilistic Technique)

Single Model & Multi-Model ENSEMBLE Prediction System

Forecasting System of PMD

10

10-cm Doppler Radars

1- Lahore2- Mangla

QPM Radar

1- Sialkot

5-cm Wx. Surveillance Radars

1- Islamabad3- D.I.Khan4- Rahim Yar Khan4- Karachi

Flood Forecasting System of PMD

1111

HRPT1- Islamabad2- Quetta

FY-2 E/D1- Islamabad

Six hourly satelliterainfall data isavailable on-line foruse in models

Satellite Ground Stations of PMD

12

Khuzdar

Zhob

Astore

ChhorJiwani

Larkana

Nawabshah

Sibbi

D.I.Khan

Bannu

Parachinar

Balakot Muzaffarabad

Central data archiving Station

Automatic Weather Stations

Automation of Meteorological Observing Network

13

PMD: Pakistan Meteorological Department

Hydrology

Flood Forecasting Division, Lahore

A Specialized unit of PMD for

Hydro-meteorological Services

Responsibilities

Flood Forecasting

Early Warning for River/Urban Flooding

Water availability Forecasts for Agriculture Sector

Assisting in Water Management

WAPDA(River/Rain Gauge Data)

FFCFederal Flood Commission

NDMANational Disaster Management Authority

Flood Forecast

WARNING

MEDIAPress, TV Channels, SMS

Irrigation Deptt

(Stream Flow Data)

14

IFAS project is being implemented with thesupport of UNESCO & JAXA

Modelling and Simulations

Flash Flood Guidance system is beingimplemented with the support of HRC USA

15

Ensemble Pred. tools

120 h 96 h 72 h 48 h 24 h

Global models

Limited Area models

Nowcasting tools

Global models

L.A. models

EPS, Probabilities

Warnings Activities

Nowcasting

Risk Identification: Early Warnings

Time Dependency of Warnings at PMD

16

Flood Warning Criteria

17

NDMA

PMD

PDMA

DDMA

TMA

UCs

Communities

Federal Ministries / FFC/ Departments / Armed ForcesElectronic & Print Media

EW Information Dissemination – Flow Chart

18

Accessibility of Weather Advisories

19

Contd....

20

https://www.facebook.com/namc.pmd.go

v

Dissemination of Weather Advisories

21

AVIATION METEOROLOGICALSERVICES

AVIATION DIVISION

FLOOD FORECASTING SERVICESMINISTRY OF WATER &

POWER

AGROMETEOROLOGICAL SERVICES MINISTRY OF FOOD SECURITY

NEW MOON PREDICTION & ASTRONOMICAL DATA ANALYSIS

MINISTRY OF RELIGIOUSAFFAIRS

R & D & RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES

MINISTRY OF SCIENCE& TECHNOLOGY

FORECASTING & DISASTER EARLY WARNINGS

NDMA , PLANNING DIVISION &DISASTER MITIGATION

ORGANIZATIONS

Linkages to Various Sectors

22

� Lack of Hydro-met Data

EWS in Pakistan - Challenges

� Climate Change

� Extreme Events

� Inadequate Dissemination System

� Lack of Awareness

23

Technology Existing Deficiency RemarksMeteorological Data

• Observatories

• AWS

• Wind Profilers

• 97

• 45

• NIL

• 40

• 400

• 8

• Planned

• Planned

• Planned

Hydrological Data

• Radars

• River Gauges (Telemetric)

• 7 (Out dated)

• ??

• 13

• 50

Radars

• One New (Mardan)

• 2 Replacement (KC & ISB)

• 4 Planned (World Bank)

• RG PlannedDissemination System

• SMS/Cell Broadcast• SMS (Limited) • Cell Broadcast • Planned

Awareness• FM Radio • NIL • FM Radio • Planned

Existing Capability & Capacity

24

The existing system may be transformed into EffectiveEWS, by addressing the following GAPS:

Recommendations

Existing EW system is not appropriate to disseminate theinformation to communities and emergency responders

• Availability of Hydro-met data

• Create awareness in stakeholders & vulnerable

communities

• Improved coordination among nodal organizations

• Effective dissemination system

25

Thank you!

Acknowledgements:Dr. Muhammad Hanif, Director and

Dr. Azmat Hayat Khan, Director

Pakistan Meteorological Department

26