THE POLITICAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE SYRIAN

REFUGEE CRISIS ON GERMANYJill TarantiniMBA 592

Summer 2016

AGENDA• Background• Political Impact• Social Impact• Economic Impact• Opportunities and Challenges• Conclusion• References

BACKGROUND• Syrian Civil War

• War on government• President Bashar al-Assad: Dictator• Pro-democracy protests• Economic and political sanctions

• War on religion• Sunni Muslim• Shiite Muslim• Ethno-religious minorities

• Proxy War• Iranian - Saudi War• Russian - American War• Hezbollah v. Future Movement

BBC News, 2016

“

”

PEOPLE HOLD ONTO RELIGIOUS FIGHTS LONGER THAN BATTLES OVER LAND AND WATER. IT BECOMES

EXISTENTIAL AND RELATED TO BELIEF IN A HIGHER

CALLING

Nicole Bibbins Sedaca, as cited in Burke, 2013

“

”

AS A STRONG, ECONOMICALLY HEALTHY COUNTRY WE HAVE THE

STRENGTH TO DO WHAT IS NECESSARY

Angela Merkel, as cited in Angerer, 2015

POLITICAL IMPACT• Lack of organization and confidence in German government and

infrastructure• Questioning of Merkel’s policies

• Popularity hit a four year low in February 2016• Growing insistence that Germany close borders to refugees: 60% feel

that country cannot cope with refugee situation• Inability to monitor refugees

• 1.1 million refugees recorded as coming to Germany in 2015 but less than .5 million asylum applications filed

• Uptick in fraudulent Syrian identification cards: who exactly is entering country?

• Where to put refugees?• Makeshift tent cities erected• Refugees relocated from city center to countryside

POLITICAL IMPACT

Statista, 2016

POLITICAL IMPACT

BBC News, 2015

POLITICAL IMPACT• Failure of European Union

• Member states take individual action• Hungary closes borders to refugees • Sweden, Slovakia and Poland open borders to refugees

• Brexit• Historic vote on June 23, 2016 resulting in 52% to 48% decision for

the United Kingdom to leave the EU• Ripple effect throughout Europe – stocks plummet, other nations

question if they should leave• Lack of legal foundation to harmonize asylum-refugee status

• Dublin Protocol• Schengen Agreement

POLITICAL IMPACT

Tasch & Nudelman, 2015

POLITICAL IMPACT • Rise of rightwing party – Alternative for Deutschland (AfD)

• Founded by Bernd Lucke• Hard anti-euro stance• Disavow neo-Nazi stereotype

• 2015 leadership transferred to Frauke Petry• Focus on migration, Islam and relations with Russia• Targeted young population unable to find jobs and educated

middle class• 2016 gaining popularity due to discontent

• Product of elitist nature of German politics• Enables Germans to voice frustrations with political class

POLITICAL IMPACT

Statista, 2016

SOCIAL IMPACT• Refugee or Migrant?

• Refugee: person fleeing war or persecution• Migrant: person crossing border to seek new work or better

life• Fraud: migrants taking advantage of open door policy and

claiming to be refugees

“

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EUROPE WILL PROVIDE PROTECTION FOR THOSE WHO NEED IT. BUT THOSE

WHO HAVE NO RIGHT TO BE HERE HAVE TO BE RETURNED

European Commissioner Dimitris Avramopoulos, as cited in Rollins, 2016

SOCIAL IMPACT• Effects of ethnic and gender imbalance

• Muslim population• Reached nearly 6 million at end of 2015• 2 out of 3 Germans feel like “foreigner” in own country

• Gender• 66.2% of refugees are male• Regions where men outnumber women susceptible to higher levels

of violence• Crime

• New Year’s Eve attacks in Cologne = 650 assaults• Less than 1% of Syrian refugees who arrived in Germany in the last

12 months were arrested

SOCIAL IMPACT• Cultural Challenges and Fear of Terrorism

• Neo-Nazi movement• Vigilante groups bringing acts of violence to refugees• Syrian refugees all viewed as a threat• 24-hour security guards and video surveillance at refugee shelters

• Suspicions of terrorism• Fear of importing Islamic extremism• Salafists: publish videos on social media on how to recruit and

exploit refugees• Rush by German citizens to purchase weapons for self-defense

ECONOMIC IMPACT• Labor Force

• Aging population: • By 2020 39% of Germans will be over the age of 60

• Low fertility rate• Ratio of 8.18 for every 1,000 people

• German labor force has declined: 1 million job vacancies• 10% of refugees expected to find job within 1 year• 55% of expected to find a job within 5 years

• Impact on native Germans• Move natives to jobs with less manual work and higher wages• Jobs in domestic sector = more opportunities for women

ECONOMIC IMPACT

Eurostat, 2016b

ECONOMIC IMPACT• Education

• Uneducated but willing to learn?• 66% are illiterate• 82% under the age of 35, 50% under the age of 25

• Vocational programs available to provide refugees with necessary skills• Federal Employment Agency “Early Intervention” project• 60 German universities offering free tuition

• Government hurdles• Risk of deportation = limited investment in training• Delay in processing of asylum applications

ECONOMIC IMPACT

BBC News, 2016

ECONOMIC IMPACT• Cost

• Germany• Finance Ministry estimates the government will spend 93.6

billion euros by the end of 2020 • IMF estimates refugees will account for .35% of Germany’s

annual GDP• European Union

• IMF estimates refugees will add .19% to public expenditure• Refugees predicted to boost annual output by 1%

ECONOMIC IMPACT

Gracio, 2015

OPPORTUNITIES• Resolve growing labor shortage• Create jobs to meet the demands brought by the asylum

seekers• Erase reputation as cold and uncaring

OPPORTUNITIES

DW Berlin, 2015

“

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GERMANY’S ROLE IN THE CRISIS IS A REDEMPTION STORY. IT IS, AFTER ALL,

EUROPE’S DARK 20TH CENTURY HISTORY THAT DEEPENS THE ANGUISH IN THE IMAGES EMERGING FROM THE CURRENT MIGRATION. BUT THIS TIME

THE JOURNEY IS ONE OF HOPE

Vick, Bajekal, Shuster, Walt, & Witty, 2015

CHALLENGES• Unification of political parties in Germany• Unification of the European Union• Overcome religious/gender stereotypes

CONCLUSION

• Difficult to justify welcoming refugees due to recent terror attacks

• Merkel needs to adjust policies and be realistic in what Germany can handle

• Refugee crisis is not going away, unified approach needed

“

”

THIS IS THE BIGGEST CRISIS THAT THE EUROPEAN UNION HAS FACED AND COULD VERY

WELL UNDO THE ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE PAST

Leonard, 2016

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