disruptive technology outlook for 2011

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February 17, 2011

Charlene LiFounder and Partner

Hot Or Not: Disruptive Technologies To Watch in 2011

© 2011 Altimeter Group

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Source: Wordle.net


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Prioritizing disruptions that matter

User Experience•Is it easy for people to use?

•Does it enable people to connect in new ways?

Business Model•Does it tap new revenue streams?

•Is it done at a lower cost?

Ecosystem Value•Does it change the flow of value?

•Does it shift power from one player to another?


“How personal relationships, individual opinions, powerful storytelling and social capital are helping brands…become more believable.”

1) Likenomics (credit to Rohit Bhargava)4

Understand the supply, demand, and thus, value of Likes as social currency

See http://bit.ly/rohit-likenomics for Rohit’s take

http://bit.ly/rohit-likenomics

http://bit.ly/rohit-likenomics


Likenomics evaluation5

User experience impact - moderate

• People with high social currency will enjoy benefits, richer experiences, receive psychic income.

• People with low social currency will find ways to get it.

Business model impact – moderate

• New economics create opportunity for people who understand Likenomics to leverage gas.

• The cost of accessing social currency will increase, and raise barriers to entry.

Ecosystem value impact – none


Special deals for special people

• Group Buying, Flash Sales, Member Sales, etc.

• Gilt, Ruelala, iDeeli, Facebook Deals

Local sales and retailers

• Group buying variation: Groupon and Living Social

• In-store check-ins: Shopkick and Checkpoints

Dynamic pricing

• Off and Away and Swoopo

Mobile price checking

• Amazon mobile apps, eBay platform

New payment methods: Square and Facebook Credits

2) Buy 2.06


How shopping will change7

I walk into the store

And maps out planned and

promoted products

Store knows it’s me


Buy 2.0 evaluation8

User experience impact - High

• New ways to buy and connect with each other and retailers.

Business model impact – Moderate

• Acquisition costs can increase/decrease substantially with adoption.

• Increased noise/clutter requires more marketing.

Ecosystem value impact – Moderate

• New entrants like GroupOn become intermediaries.


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3) Social Search – Beyond Friends

Social sharing rises as a search ranking signal, esp in the enterprise

Create a social content hub to gain traction

Use microformats to highlight granularity (e.g. hProduct & hReview)


Social Search evaluation10

User experience impact - Moderate

• Search becomes more useful, relevant to people.


• SEO takes on a different dimension, rewards companies with social currency, personalized experiences.


• New power brokers are social data/profile players who capture activity data and profiles.

• Google has little of either.


Social monitoring merges with Web analytics

• HOT: Omniture, Coremetrics/IBM, Webtrends

Technology like Hadoop makes it easy for companies to tap “Big Data”

• E.g. New York Times making its archives public

• Twitter archived by Library of Congress

• Facebook Cassandra, Amazon Dynamo, Google BigTable

Data visualization tools make it easy to digest

Balancing privacy and personalization

4) Big Data11


Big Data evaluation12

User experience impact - Low

• Most users won’t directly experience Big Data.

Business model impact – High

• New businesses and initiatives can be started at very low cost.


• Owners of Big Data repositories can assert control, demand payments for access.


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5) Enterprise Social Networking


Enterprise Social Networking evaluation14

User experience impact – High

• Work gets social, employees get connected to each other.


• Work gets done faster, cheaper.

• New organizational structures and cultures emerge.


• Traditional enterprise application players face new, more nimble entrants.


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6) Game-ification


TurboTax used “games” to encourage sharing and support

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Social design can enter training, collaboration, support, hiring


Gamification evaluation17

User experience impact – High

• Experiences get richer, more engaging


• Work gets done faster, cheaper.

• New organizational structures and cultures emerge.

Ecosystem value impact – Low

• Service providers will remain focused, boutique firms.


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7) Print extensions

QR Codes

Imagine images as

Bit.ly codes


Print extensions evaluation19

User experience impact – Moderate

• Users get new ways to get information quickly.

• No need to download special software, understand quirky images.


• Leverage print investment to extend further into buying process.

• Impacts importance of SEO.


• Standards, not new service providers, play a role.


Print extensions evaluation20


• Users get new power, earn social status, when they become curators.


• Lower cost of acquisition.


• Standards, not new service providers, play a role.


8) DIY and Co-creation21


DIY an Co-creation evaluation22


• Users become more loyal/engaged with organizations that invite them in.

• Develop a sense of shared ownership in the success of the organization.

Business model impact – High

• Reduced merchandising costs.

• Reduced marketing costs due to viral loop.


• Mostly home-grown, internal development.


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9) Curation


Curation evaluation24


• Users gain new power as market influencers.

Business model impact – Low

• Low unless tapped as part of Co-creation initiative.


• Power shifts to users who steal attention and loyalty from established players.


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Not Hot Yet in 2011: Augmented Reality

When scanning tech improves, will get hot


Augmented Reality evaluation26


• Still hard to use, limited availability.

• But when available, creates unique, new experience.

Business model impact – Low

• Unclear if new experiences lower costs, raise revenues.


• Few intermediaries emerge in new experiences.

• Usually home-grown.


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To Watch: Quora – Quality Q&A?

Monitor your brand

Engage by being helpful


User Experience Business Model Value Networks

Likenomics Moderate Moderate Low

Buy 2.0 High Moderate Moderate

Social Search Moderate Moderate Moderate

Big Data Low High Moderate

Enterprise Soc Net High Moderate Moderate

Gamification High Moderate Low

Print extensions Moderate Moderate Low

DIY/Co-creation Moderate High Low

Curation Moderate Low Moderate

Augmented reality Moderate Low Low

Summary of disruptions28


Bonus #1: Transparency


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Bonus #2: Leadership

How to be out of control and

still in command


It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives.

It is the one that is most adaptable to change.

- Charles Darwin

Preparing for disruption31


Charlene Li

[email protected]

charleneli.com/blog

Twitter: charleneli

For slides, send an email to

[email protected]

For more information & to buy the

book

visit open-leadership.com
