development of future mobility scenarios in a sump process using a simulation game
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Development of future mobility scenarios in a SUMP process using a simulation game ISB - RWTH Aachen University Conny Louen 08.05.2014. Sustainable urban mobility plans in Aachen. Renewal of the transport development plan in the city of Aachen started in 2011 - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Development of future mobility scenarios in a SUMP process using a simulation game ISB - RWTH Aachen University
Conny Louen
08.05.2014
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 2
Sustainable urban mobility plans in Aachen
Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen UniversitySource: ISB – RWTH Aachen University
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
• Renewal of the transport development plan in the city of Aachen started in 2011
• Additional creation of a sustainable urban mobility plan in the region of Aachen since 2013
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 3
Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen University
Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen University
Aachen
Germany
Sustainable urban mobility plans in Aachen
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 4
• Project co-financed by the european union
• Goal: implement sustainable mobility planning in four cities/regions
• Started in 2012
Civitas Dynamo
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
Source: Civitas Initiative
• Each city/region is going to create a SUMP
• The simulation game will be considered in the SUMP-process
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 5
Source: Guidemaps Consortium 2004, p. 11
Need for the simulation game
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 6
Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen
Need for the simulation game
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
popu-lation
migra-tion
aging
demo-graphy
economy
traffic
mobility offer
politics
law
plans
costs
availa-bility quality
life-styles
employ-mentsgoods
custom-ers
budget
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 7
Future Mobility
Thesis
Describe andsum up
Stakeholders
use anddiscuss
Simulation Game
Common Scenarios
Goal of the simulation game
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
• Introduce involved stakeholders to complexity of mobility related forecasts
• Reduce prediction complexity by limiting considered factors and creating thesis
• Build up common scenarios of future mobility by analyzing and discussing the stakeholders simulation game results
Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 8
• Game contains general thesis relating to future mobility
• During SUMP development process
Involved Stakeholders play game
Game results are analysed and used as base for building up future mobility scenarios
Source: Rupprecht Consult 2011, p. 13
Simulation Game
Use case of the simulation game
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
Edited Source: Rupprecht Consult 2011, p. 13
Simulation Game
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 10
Game structure
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 11
Game structure
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
Click leads to• Issue with two
or three theses
Control bar
Areas representing• Functional parts of a city• Mobility and transport
offers
Traffic volume• Increases or
decreases
Functional parts• Expand or
contract
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 12
Game content
NEW MOBILITY PUBLIC TRANSPORT
CAR LORRY
ELECTRO
CITY SHOPPINGINDUSTRYLEISURE TIME
SERVICES RURAL AREA
Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
• 11 topics with 14 thesis
• For each thesis there are up to three choices
Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen
• 3 categories of topics: General conditions Lifestyle Mobility/transport offers
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 13
Thesis
SHOPPING
CONTINUE
The popularity of online commerce continues to increase. In response to this increase, freight transport throughout the city also increases. Private shopping traffic decreases.
The popularity of online commerce does not increase. Freight and private shopping traffic stay roughly the same.
The popularity of online commerce increases. Customers, however, still travel to shop. The result of this is that freight and private shopping increase.
Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
• One thesis after the other the user can make his choices
• The user has to complete the game by editing all thesis
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 15
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
Choice and consequencesTopic S1 S2
Population declines increases
Service sector declines increases
Topic S1 S2
traffic toll implemented not impl.
Oil price declines increases
Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen
S1
S2
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 16
Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen
Output
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
• Image file with final state of the edited city and user data for visualization of the results
• Data set with user choices and user data is saved in a data base for aggregate analysis of the results
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 17
Analysis and discussion of
simulation game results
Goal: generating ‚common scenarios‘
Source: ISB – RWTH Aachen
Analysis
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
• Frequencies of thesis choices
• Frequencies of thesis choices by groups (e. g. differentiated by users role in the SUMP process)
• Most frequently chosen thesis can be identified and combined to a limited number of scenarios
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 18
Conclusion
Backround
Context
Content and functioning
Results and analysis
Conclusion
• Simulation game is developed for use within SUMP process
To introduce participants in the complexity of mobility based forecasts
As basis for compiling common scenarios
• Game users have to choose between different thesis refering to mobility related topics
• Choices of all participants are saved and can be evaluated To identify most frequently chosen thesis, which
can be combined to scenarios
• Introduction for the discussion process on how mobility will develop and which measures are the best in this context
CIVITAS-DYN@MO Aachen
ECOMM 2014 l 08.05.2014 l ISB - RWTH Aachen University | Conny Louen 19
• Guidemaps Consortium 2004 Successful transport decision-making: A project management and stakeholder engagement handbook: Volume 1: Concepts and Tools
• Rupprecht Consult 2011 Guidelines: Developing and implementing a sustainable urban mobility plan; Cologne
Bibliography
Bibliography