“connecting people and places” regional mobility plan future scenarios october 19, 2009
TRANSCRIPT
“Connecting People and Places”
REGIONAL MOBILITY PLANFuture Scenarios
October 19, 2009
Connecting People and Places
Future Growth Scenarios
Federal Highway Administration encourages the analysis of future scenarios in long range transportation planningFHWA is the review/certification agency
Used in a numerous planning efforts across the country at all levels
Provides a high–level conceptual view of the future
Provides information for developing a policy framework for the region and local governments Achieve identified goals and objectives
Connecting People and PlacesRegional Mobility Plan
Connecting People and PlacesScenario Analysis
Develop Future Conditions
Utilize Existing Conditions
Connecting People and Places
Future Growth Scenarios
What the scenario analysis is:High level, conceptual look at future growth
patterns and the impactsBasis for a framework for policy development
What the scenario analysis is not:Development of prescriptive land use
requirements for local governmentsIdentification of parcel based land uses
Connecting People and Places
Scenario Development
Develop overall visionApril, 2007 Retreat
Developed mission and vision Four major themes
Sustainability and quality of lifeEconomic competitiveness and prosperityInterconnected regional multimodal
transportation networkLinking land use to transportation, economic
development and the environment
Connecting People and Places
Scenario Development
Develop Guidance - Goals and ObjectivesApril, 2009 Retreat
Developed Guiding PrinciplesBased on four major themes
June, 2009 – September, 2009Developed Goals and Objectives
Drawn from vision and guiding principlesIncorporated quality growth principlesIncorporated SAFETEA-LU planning factors
Connecting People and Places
Scenario Development
Public/Stakeholder ParticipationIdentification of issuesSurveys and Exercises
Community Choices surveyRegional Mobility SurveyBucks exercise
Identification of GoalsIdentification of future development
patterns and transportation infrastructure
Connecting People and Places
Scenario Development
Future Development Scenarios
Three scenarios for analysis:Scenario 1: “Business as Usual”
Scenario 2: Quality Growth PrinciplesGoals and Objectives
Scenario 3?
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
LEON COUNTY: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES
WAKULLA COUNTY: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
JEFFERSON COUNTY: FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION
FACILITIES
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
GADSDEN COUNTY: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRANSPORTATION FACILITIES
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Rural; Ag; Outdoor Recreation
Connecting People and Places
Future Growth Scenarios
Scenario # 1: “Business As Usual”What will our region look like if we keep doing what we are doing?
Connecting People and Places
Future Growth Scenarios
Scenario # 1: “Business As Usual”
Identify developable land, excluding designated conservation areas; military/government areas; identified wetlands; and the incorporation of any designated buffer requirements
Using base year population developed for travel demand model, identify existing densities within the region
Connecting People and Places
Future Growth Scenarios
Scenario # 1: “Business As Usual”
Utilize population projections for planning horizon years (2040 and 2060) and assign existing densities to land suited for development
Assignment hierarchy for developmentApproved planned developmentsExisting large parcels (i.e, timber company
holdings)Land in proximity to existing suburban
developmentLand in proximity to existing infrastructure
Connecting People and Places
Future Growth Scenarios
Scenario # 2: Quality Growth Principles and the Goals
and Objectives
Connecting People and Places
Future Growth ScenariosScenario # 2: Quality Growth Scenario
Utilize same population projections and land suited for development as Scenario 1
Apply constraints to the land suited for development, excludingCritical environmental areas that may be negatively
impacted by growth and developmentIdentify areas for focused density centers
Increase densities within the identified growth centers
Decrease densities outside of the growth centers
Connecting People and Places
Future Growth Scenarios
Scenario # 2: Quality Growth Scenario
Assignment hierarchy for development
Approved planned developmentsExisting areas of developmentLand served by existing infrastructure
Connecting People and Places
Future Growth Scenarios
Scenario # 3: Potential Options?
Hybrid densities and assignment hierarchy
Development within framework of comprehensive plans
Development within framework of existing ordinances and regulations
Connecting People and Places
Future Growth Scenarios
Scenario Assessment will evaluate impacts on:
Land use
Transportation
Environmental, Cultural and Historical Resources
Safety and Security
Quality of Life
Connecting People and Places
QUESTIONS?