development and management of transboundary …biiss.org/seminar...

Development and Management of Transboundary Water in the Ganges, the

Brahmaputra and the Meghna Basins

World image layer,

ArcGlobal data, ESRI

Mashfiqus Salehin

Institute of Water and Flood Management (IWFM)Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology (BUET)

OUTLINE

✍ Introduction of GBM Basins

✍ Water resources management issues

✍ Water management policies and plans

✍ History of regional cooperation

✍ Water Management Interventions and Regional Implications

✍ Regional Cooperation – The WAY FORWARD(Water resources development opportunities, lessons learnt)

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The GBM Basins

The three basins are distinctly different:They originate and travel through different physiographic unitsThey have geographically distinct catchment zones with dissimilar valleys and drainage networks.

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The GBM Basins

WHY THE PROBLEMS?

Catchment areas of the GBM basins

Average annual flow – 1350 BCM (G: 500; B: 700; and M: 150 BCM)Replenishable GW storage – 230 BCM

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Water Resources Management Issues

Rajshahi

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Khulna

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Inequality of temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation

Water Resources Management IssuesInequality of temporal and spatial distribution of flow

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Huge populationanticipated growthprevailing poverty

About 10% of the worlds’ population lives in this region, representing only 1.2% of the world’s land mass.

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Nepal

Floods in hill valleys due to sudden cloud out bursts over several days

Floods in the mountains induced by glaciers (GLOF)

Overbank monsoon flooding in rivers like Sapta-Kosi, Gandaki, Karnali, and Mahakali, causing immense damage in the terai area of Nepal (and also in adjacent areas of India)

Rockslides and landslides

Unreliable river flows affecting performance of irrigation systems,

Deteriorating water quality due to industrial pollution.

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India

Floods affect about 7.5 Mha of area per year

68% lies in GBM states, mostly in Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh.

Ganges has a high damage potential, especially in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.

Low flow in many of the rivers in northwestern, western and southern parts

Droughts in one-sixth area of the country

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India

Degrading water quality mainly due to industrial and domestic wastes

Arsenic contamination of groundwater in many parts of the northern states, particularly West Bengal.

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Hydrological regions

NW: North-West

NC: North-Central

NE: North-East

SW: South-West

SC: South-Central

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EH: Eastern Hills

RE: Rivers and Estuary

57 Cross-boundary rivers

LEGEND

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LEGEND

Bangladesh

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Cyclone.shpHigh RiskRiskWind RiskNO DATA

Bangladesh

Wide spread river floods over floodplains, flash floods in hilly streams, tidal flood and occasional cyclonic storm-surge flood

Huge sediment loads; river erosion along about 75 rivers

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Bangladesh



Moderate to severe droughts spreading over 10 districts

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Bangladesh




Very low dry season water availability in SW region due to Farakka diversion

Increased salinity intrusion and threatened agriculture, ecosystem including the Sundarbans,

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LEGEND

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Bangladesh




Very low dry season water availability in SW region due to Farakka diversion

Increased salinity intrusion and threatened agriculture, ecosystem including the Sundarbans,

Degrading water quality

Widespread GW arsenic contamination

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LEGEND

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Bhutan

Mounting pressure on the water resources due to competing demands from different users

Seasonal and local imbalances of flows

Localized and seasonal water shortages for drinking and agricultural purposes,

Rising fluctuation between lean season and monsoon season flows, leading to sub-optimal utilization of generating capacity of hydropower plants

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF)

Increasing sediment loads in rivers

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Water Management Policies and Plans

Envisions river basin as a hydrological unit for water resources development and management. River basin organizations are given utmost importance Does not address anything on transboundary river sharing or management Sharing or distribution of water is discussed when it comes down to allocation among states sharing a particular basin.

National Water Policy (2002) of India

National Water Policy (1999) of Bangladesh Regional cooperation received the foremost recognition Exchange and sharing of information and data, and joint assessment of the basins’ potentials are outlined as the major objectives

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Water Management Policies and Plans

Recognizes the potential for sharing the water resources ‘benefits’ on equitable terms Seeks to enhance regional cooperation in sharing and exchange of data, and improve disaster forecasting and warning systems.

National Water Plan (2005) of Nepal

National Water Policy (2003) of Bhutan

Expresses similar pledges with regards to regional cooperation.

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History of Regional Cooperation

The water sharing disputes between Nepal and India date back to early twentieth century

Sarda Barrage Agreement in 1920 Kosi river agreement in 1954 Gandak agreement in 1959

India – Nepal Cooperation

‘Sell-out’ to many Nepalese people(Uprety 2006; Salman and Uprety 2002; Biswas 2008)

More recently, Mahakhali Treaty in 1996: Sarada Barrage, Tanakpur Barrage, and Pancheshwar Project.

- regarded by many as a creation of a climate of goodwill and mutual confidence, although the reaction has been mixed to many Nepalese people.

Sapta-Kosi High Dam Project and Sun Kosi Storage cum Diversion Scheme


India – Bangladesh Cooperation

Earlier: Short-term sharing arrangements in 1975A 5-year agreement in 1977 (1978-82)Two MoUs in 1982 (1983-84) and 1986 (1986-88)Formation of Joint River Committee

The Ganges Water Treaty (1996)

However, the GWT has offered Bangladesh the potential for surface water augmentation in the Ganges Dependent Area.

The GWT did improve the flow into Bangladesh, but it was lower than the flow that was available during earlier agreement periods (Chowdhury 2005; Chowdhury and Dutta 2004).

One of the reasons is the decrease in flows arriving at Farakka because of upstream water uses.

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India – Bangladesh Cooperation

Joint Committee prioritized eight rivers at the initial stageTeesta, Dharla, Dudhkumar, Manu, Khowai, Gumti, Muhuri, Feni

The basis for agreement has been agreed in the Article-IX of the GWT that says :

‘Guided by the principles of equity, fairness and no harm to either party, both the Governments agree to conclude water sharing Treaties/ Agreements with regard to other common rivers.’

Negotiations for other transboundary rivers

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Rather very smooth because of the close and friendly ties.

A win-win situation for both countries in the hydropower sector, with India providing both technical and financial assistance to develop the numerous hydropower projects in Bhutan.

India benefits from Bhutan’s renewable hydroelectric energy resource to meet a part of its huge power demand while Bhutan benefits from the revenues earned from the export of power.

Jaldhaka agreement in 1961. 336 MW Chukhahydel project commissioned in 1986–88. The Tala hydroelectric project of 1020 MW

India – Bhutan Cooperation

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Water Management Interventions and Regional Implications

Claimed future benefits: increase irrigation potential, increase hydropower production and control floods

River Linking Project in India

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Criticism in India Major sources of criticisms, however, came from prominent

water professionals all across India (Iyer 2003; Bandyopadhyay and Perveen 2002; and Singh 2003) . A letter and a memorandum signed by 58 eminent professionals were sent to the prime minister to reconsider the project.

Surplus-deficit paradox: not found recognition by many.

The primary answer to reduce the water scarcity in rain scarce areas (western & southern parts) has to be local, through water harvesting and conservation (traditional rainwater harvesting, tank-rehabilitation, etc), and increasing water use efficiency.

Socio-economic and environmental consequences



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Concerns of Bangladesh likely to face adverse impacts on river hydraulics & morphology, agriculture, domestic water supply, fisheries, forestry, navigation, biodiversity, and socio-economy.

Large scale modifications in temporal distribution of flows in Brahmaputra and Ganges.

Reduction of wet season flow, incomplete GW recharge and shrinking of wetlands will be in NW, NC and SC regions.

Reduced flow in the Lower Meghna, causing increase in salinity intrusion, putting SC, SE and NE regions at risk (Chowdhury 2005).

Reduction of Ganges flow to severely worsen existing stressed condition of the SW region.

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LEGEND



Proposed Interventions

Tipaimukh Dam Across the Barak river in Manipur state in India is planned to be constructed primarily for flood control and power generation, envisaging secondary benefits including irrigation.

Concerns both inside and outside India

Big concerns in Bangladesh

Regional Cooperation – The WAY FORWARD

Huge potentials of regional cooperation in the GBM basins

However, lack of mutual trust and confidence among the co-riparian countries has played a major role in the long-standing disputes or conflicts surrounding trans-boundary rivers.

Water Resources Development Opportunities

The GBM countries have much to learn from the experiences ofinternational treaties and river basin organizations, which underscore the importance of

common or shared interests of nationsperception of huge mutual benefitsusefulness of sharing of benefits, andimportance of basin-level management

Development options through cooperative measuresStructural: dams or reservoirs at ‘suitable’ locationsNon-structural: sharing or exchange of data and information

Structural:Dams or reservoirs need to be of multipurpose nature – irrigation, flood control, navigation, hydropower generation, enhanced economic condition



Need cooperative approach:Geographical and hydrological characteristics make Nepal the most suitable site for construction of multi-purpose reservoirs.

Hydropower generation Flood mitigation in d/s reaches of the Ganges Stored monsoon water augmenting dry season flow Possibility of river navigation.

30 potential reservoir sites

9 classified as large

Dry season flow augmentation potential can range from 2,400 to 4,950 cumecs (>4 times present lean season flows in Ganges at Farakka).

The Sapta-Kosi High Dam Project has the maximum potential for augmenting flows at Farakka, which could benefit Nepal, Bangladesh, and India.


Water Resources Development OpportunitiesAugmentation of dry season flow

(Bangladesh-Nepal Joint Study Team 1989)

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Hydropower development

Cooperation between India and Nepal has been limited with the exception of the recently initiated Sapta-Kosi Dam

Cooperation between India and Bhutan is growing

Need an integrated plan for hydroelectric development and sharing through an interconnected grid across the borders

Nepal and Bhutan: - potential far excess than domestic requirement- huge potential of earning rich revenue by selling it

to other countries



Nepal: theoretical potential of 83,000 MW and an economically acceptable potential of over 42,000 MW

Bhutan: potential of about 20,000 MW

Inland Navigation

Flow regulation through creation of multi-purpose reservoirs at the upper reaches of the rivers will open opportunities for inland river navigation in the downstream reaches.



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Flood management

The major potential for regional cooperation lies in non-structural flood management measures, more specifically, flood forecasting and warning.

Some bilateral arrangements exist

Need improvement of existing arrangement




SHARED VISION

Development and maintaining of ‘common’ or ‘shared’ vision or interests

Will help stimulate a mutual trust and confidence among the basin countries.

Agreements between economically and politically disparate countries were possible in the cases of the Indus Treaty, Mekong River Agreement, and Nile Basin Initiative.

Nile Basin InitiativeBurundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, Uganda and the United Republic of Tanzania

Launched in 1999 basin-wide framework Joint-problem solving guided by a ‘shared vision’ equitable ‘benefit’ sharing

Mekong River Commission Lao PDR, Thailand, Cambodia and VietNam (China and Myanmar –dialogue partners since 1996)

Mekong Committee established in 1957

Mekong River Commission established in 1995

agreement based on principles of international law joint-basin wide planning process (Basin Development Plan)


SHARING OF BENEFITS

Equitable distribution/ sharing of benefits is at the root of some of the world’s most successful institutions.

Instead of traditional – a zero-sum, rights-based approach, benefits derived from water equitably allocated, – a win-win, integrative approach.

Sharing of benefits from water use - whether from hydropower, agriculture, flood control, navigation, trade, tourism and the preservation of healthy aquatic ecosystems - not the distribution of water itself.


SHARING OF BENEFITS

Each country has something important to offer:

Nepal may provide hydropower and water storage benefits to India and Bangladesh;

India may supply navigation and transit facilities and provide financing and expertise to Nepal, grant secure expectations of minimum flow to Bangladesh and provide financing and technical expertise to Bhutan for hydropower development;

Bangladesh may permit navigation and transit access to India and Nepal;

Bhutan may supply hydropower and water storage benefits to India.


MULTI-LATERAL COOPERATION

Bilateral negotiations are likely to exclude the positive and negative externalities.

Multilateral resolution will help materialize the huge potentials of ‘sharing of benefits’ in a sustainable way.greater levels of participation and tendency for more permanent and effective agreements.

Construction of multi-purpose storage reservoirs - concerns the interests of more than two countries, and hence need multilateral dialogues and cooperation.


BASIN-WIDE APPROACH

Shared vision on equitable sharing of benefits can best be achieved through basin-wide management of water resources.

Lessons may be drawn from the prevailing basin-wide management of trans-boundary rivers, for example, Rhine, Mekong, Danube, and Nile.


RESILIENT INSTITUTIONS

Despite the potential for dispute in trans-boundary basins, the record of cooperation historically overwhelms the record of acute conflict over international water resources.

UNESCO (2003): ‘some of the most vociferous enemies around the world’ have been able to negotiate and maintain wateragreements because of resilient institutions that stood firm over time and during periods of otherwise strained relations.

The Mekong Committee has functioned since 1957, and exchanged data throughout the Viet Nam War.The Indus River Commission survived through two wars between India and Pakistan.All ten Nile riparian states are currently involved in negotiations over cooperative basin development the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI).


PARTICIPATORY FACT FINDING

Experiences from Mekong and Nile highlights the need to stimulate a participatory process (stakeholder involvement in WRM process)

Initial strategic joint fact-finding projects among co-riparians will serve as an important catalytic tool for eliminating ‘MISTRUST’ and achieving a SHARED VISION & COMMITMENT among riparian nations.

Will help Crisis Prevention rather than post-crisis conflict resolution

All relevant stakeholders (national governments, civil society organizations, academia, research institutions, NGOs and donors) need to work together in joint research to address the challenges ahead.

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Lessons for GBM Countries

Multi-track DiplomacyTrack I - have been made for a long time through the JRC

Track II - have also been pursued to enhance the effectiveness of the Track I efforts, an outcome of which is the signing of the Ganges Water Treaty.

Need multi-track diplomacy Complexities of water sharing issues are growing Discussions between co-riparian nations are highly politicized In Track III, dialogue and advocacy efforts will be led by the civil society organizations, with the aim to stimulate progress at more formal levels (Track I and Track II).

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Thank You

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