transboundary flood risk management

Aline te Linde

Nijmegen20 september 2012

Cross-boundary flood risk

The Rhine basin

© Twynstra Gudde | Deltares 20-9-2012

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CV Aline te Linde

1995 – 2001 Earth Sciences, VU University Amsterdam

MSc hydrology

2002 – 2007 WL | Delft Hydraulics

Integrated Water Management

2008 – 2012 Deltares

Unit Scenarios and Policy Analysis

2006 – present Institute for Environmental Studies, VU A’dam

PhD - 2011

2012 – present Twynstra Gudde Consultants and Managers

Advisory group Water


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http://www.ubvu.vu.nl


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Water manager has four questions

1. How often does this happen?

2. What is the expected damage?

3. Does this change in the future?

4. Which measures can I take?

Flood risk = probabiliy x damage

Scenarios

– Climate change

– Socio-economic / land use


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Rhine

length: 1320 km shipping > 200 t/year

River basin

surface area: 185.000 km2 7 countries

58 million inhabitants 11 million in flood prone areas


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Design discharge Lobith

12 april 2023

2100 KNMI – Warm

2100 KNMI – Moderate


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Land use Water depth Potential damage


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Risk = probability x damage


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Risk = probability x damage


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TextIncrease flood risk entire

River basin:

54 – 230% in 2030

(reference = 2000)


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Cross-boundary floods


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1926


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Cross-boundary low flows

NL = most downstream country

Alpine water towers

Low flows: ~90 % of Rhine discharge from the Alps


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Cross-boundary approach

EU legislation for all countries

– EU Water Framework Directive (2000)

commits European Union member states to achieve good qualitative and

quantitative status of all water bodies by 2015

– EU Floods Directive (2007)

“Member States shall furthermore coordinate their flood risk management practices

in shared river basins, […] and shall in solidarity not undertake measures that would increase the flood risk in neighbouring countries.”

Obviously relevant for downstream countries

However,


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The Dutch Delta Programme

“The object of the new-style Delta Plan (the Delta Works of the future) is to protect our country against high water and keep our freshwater supply up to standard, now and in the future.”

http://www.deltacommissaris.nl/english/

Quite revolutionary:

– Integrated plan (combine functions and scales)

– Act now, and not after a next flooding disaster

– Long-term planning


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Delta Programme

– 3 Generic Programmes

• Safety

• Fresh water

• New urban developments and restructuring

– 6 Area-based sub-programmes

– Delta Commissioner and small staff

– 5 Delta Decisions in 2015

– Delta Law

– Delta Fund

– 2050 en 2100


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Scope is national

Rhine and Meuse models start at the Dutch border

– Water safety

– Low flow / drought analysis

Climate scenarios projections for future discharge regime Rhine and Meuse (models do include whole basin)

Possibility of cross-boundary flooding – not taken into account

Some interest now in upstream water use Rhine basin


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Conclusion

I am puzzled by the national scope of the Delta Programme

Strong belief in the design discharge, ignoring uncertainties, instead of debating how to deal with uncertainty in extreme discharge estimates (probability and volume)

Ignor


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Alle intellectuele eigendomsrechten met betrekking tot deze presentatie berusten bij Twynstra Gudde. Niets uit deze presentatie mag worden verveelvoudigd of openbaar gemaakt zonder schriftelijke toestemming van Twynstra Gudde.

Aline te [email protected]

www.twynstragudde.nlwww.deltares.nlwww.ivm.vu.nl

http://www.twynstragudde.nl/

transboundary flood risk management

Education

titel twynstra gudde

alps twynstra gudde

deltares unit scenarios

water bodies

high water

rhine discharge

delta decisions

delta law delta fund