Demographic and economic challenges in an emigration-immigration country -

the case of Poland

Paweł Kaczmarczyk

Centre of Migration Research

University of Warsaw

Driving forces behind demographic trends in Visegrad countries: The role of migration and family formation Prague, 10-11 September 2015

Structure of the presentation

Introduction: Migration cycle and migration transition

Migration transition – theoretical and conceptual considerations

Towards a net receiving area? Interpretation

Challenges in an emigration-immigration country – the case of Poland

Demography

Labour market

Integration

‘Old’ immigration countries

France, Germany, Austria, UK

- (dis)integration / social exclusion of immigrants

- crisis / failure of the multiculturalism

‘New’ immigration countries

Italy, Spain, Ireland, Portugal

- transformation of immigrants into settlers

- ways to integrating them in economic and social terms

‘Future’ immigration countries

CEE

- completion of the transition?

- impact of on-going recession

- high emigration rates in the post-accession period

- circular mobility as a major form of movements

time before 1975… around 1980 / 1990 2020 (?)

Introduction: Europe as a migration area - European Migration Cycle

Migration transition

Origins: Zelinsky (1971), Skeldon (1990,1997) linkages between migration patterns (internal, international, circular etc.) and demographic developments

Transition from net sending into net receiving area:

Chesnais (1992), Okólski (2012) demographic transition (FDT) and migration cycle (net emigration – transition phase – net immigration) demographic pressure as the most important pro-migratory factor, demographic insufficiency as the main driver of immigration (de Kaa 1999 – SDT); from trickle to mass migration - Hatton and Williamson (2008)

Fields (1994) economic changes (export-led growth accompanied with well integrated labour markets) as the main driver of migration transition increase in demand for labour beyond the stage of full employment recruitment

King and Black (1997) from net sending area (1950-1970) through transition (1970-1980) to net receiving status (1980-…) (based on the case of Southern Europe) dualisation of the economy, role of the welfare state measures, informal economy

de Haas (2010) capabilities and aspirations to migrate

Migration transition - capabilities / aspirations approach

Development and capabilites / aspirations to migrate

Source: de Haas 2010: 17

• migration aspirations: not treated as given preferences, rather: dependent on the development process

• migration capabilities: social, human and material capital people are able to mobilize (in order to become mobile)

• hypotheses: migration capabilities are expected to rise with development; migration aspirations are expected to have an inverted U-shape (decline due to lowering of the wage/income gap)

Czaika and Vothknecht (2014) - two capacities:

Capacity to realize transformation of migration potential into real migratory streams

Capacity to aspire function of a difference between reality and „aspired level of subjective well-being” (cfr. Hoffman-Novotny, relative deprivation, information asymmetry)

Migration transition - capabilities / aspirations approach

Source: de Haas 2010: 19

Development and migration transition

CASE OF POLAND?

• individual model translated into macro-level variables migration transition

• migration capabilities increase exponentially during the early development phase (effect amplified by migrant networks and migration hump) then capabilities reach very high level but aspirations to migrate tend to decline (income gap diminishes)

• development means higher attractiveness for potential immigrants (controversial – too simplistic importance of: 1) labour market and 2) demography)

• development pushes countries towards net migration frontier

Case of Poland: Post-enlargement migration experience (1) • EU-Enlargement and migration – why important?

• toward European Economic Space?

• scale of the change

• limitations: transitional periods (part. Germany and Austria), access to welfare systems, barriers imposed in case of the 2007 accession round

• effects: enormous changes in terms of scale, dynamics and structural features

Accession year

New member states No. of EU member states (after

enlargement)

Number of new EU citizens (in

thous.)

% change of number of new

citizens

1973 Denmark, Ireland, United Kingdom

9 64 228 30.8

1981 Greece 10 9 701 3.5

1986 Spain, Portugal 12 48 515 16.7

1995 Austria, Finnland, Sweden 15 21 859 6.2

2004 Cyprus, Czech Rep., Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland,

Slovak Rep., Slovenia

25 74 142 19.3

2007 Bulgaria, Romania 27 29 244 6.3

Number of EU-12 nationals (at all ages) residing in the EU-15 countries in thousands, 2000-2014

Source: Fihel et al. 2015

Post-enlargement migration experience (2)

Migration from Poland – stock and main destinations

Source: Own elaboration based on the CSO data

Post-enlargement migration experience (3)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20

02

(Ce

nsu

s)

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

Germany Ireland Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom Other

Post-2004 emigration from Poland – why so massive?

Aspirations Capabilities

• wage / income gap

• differences in standards of living

• growing (?) inequality relative

deprivation, subjective well-being

• educational boom

• social change (middle class)

• EU citizenship

• institutional changes free migratory

regime

• costs of transportation

• access to (free) information

• formal recruitment / recruitment agencies

• educational boom skills

• structural demand for foreign labour (at

destinations)

• migrant networks

Post-2004 emigration from Poland – why so massive?

ASPIRATIONS

CAPABILITIES

Time / development

Aspirations / capabilities

2004 structural break development as a trigger of mass out-migration (BUT NOT ONLY DUE TO CAPABILITIES)

Importance of long-term perspective

scale and structure of recent migration deeply rooted in the past; e.g. socialist model of industrialization and urbanization (incomplete urbanization)

entrapment of people in the least developed regions labour market mismatches, oversupply of labour matched with rising level of aspirations

Immigration to Poland – basic data

Register data - 2001-2013: 155 thous.

National Census 2002 – 40.6 thous. foreigners

National Census 2011 – 110 thous. foreigners (0.3% of the total population)

Labour Force Survey: around 60 thous. foreigners (0.2% of the total)

Work permits issued: around 40 thous. in 2013 and 2014

Most important immigrant groups: former Soviet Union (Ukraine, Belarus), Vietnam, China, Western European countries

But:

Passenger border traffic: approx. 60-70 million of visiting foreigners in 2012-2014

Number of declarations issued (simplified procedure): around 235 thous. in 2013, 387 thous. in 2014 and and 411 thous. in the first half of 2015 (90% - Ukrainians)

Immigration to Poland – why (still) so limited?

Aspirations Capabilities

• wage / income gap

• differences in standards of living

• lack of jobs

• migration as a survival strategy

• growing (severely) inequality

• lack of economic and political stability

BUT:

• MANIFOLD DESTINATIONS competition

for talents (?)

• migrant networks

• cultural proximity (Ukrainians)

• geographical proximity (Ukrainians)

• business of migration (facilitators)

• demand (in process of building)

• ROLE OF THE SIMPLIFIED PROCEDURE

cfg. Ukrainian crisis

Towards a net immigration area?

MIGRATION TRANSITION

EMIGRATION

IMMIGRATION

Emigration / immigration

Time / development

Key factors:

-Labour market needs?

-Economic convergence? (attractiveness)

-Immigration policies?

-External factors?

Challenges for and emigration-immigration country (1) • Net migration and demographic challenges

• Post-accession outflow and demographic future of Poland

• Additional effects: social impacts, impacts on family formation, regional disparities

• Net migration and demographic ageing

• Net migration and labour market needs

• Overall effects – replacement migration?

• Structure of immigration

• Sectoral effects (construction, agriculture, care services)

• Integration

• Lack of systemic solutions

• (Very) limited experience

• Ad-hoc measures

Challenges: emigration and demographic future of Poland

33 000 000

34 000 000

35 000 000

36 000 000

37 000 000

38 000 000

39 000 000

40 000 000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Official CSO forecast Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

What do we know? Official forecast vs. scenarios including data on ‘temporary’ emigration

Source: OBMF

Additional effects:

- Social impacts

- Impacts on family formation

- Etc.

Challenges: emigration and demographic future of Poland

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

30,0%

35,0%

40,0%

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Migration loss: Poland: 6.8%

Migration loss - 18-64: Poland 7.9%

Migration loss - 18-44: Poland 10.0%

Source: OBMF

Regional and country level effects

010203040506070Romania

Poland

Slovakia

Bulgaria

Germany

Hungary

Portugal

Greece

ItalySpainCzech Republic

Austria

Netherlands

Finland

France

Sweden

Belgium

Denmark

United Kingdom

2008 2035 2060

25,4 42,3 53,5EU-27

Old-age dependency ratio, 2008, 2035 & 2060

low immigration, high emigration countries

lowest low fertility

Challenges: emigration and demographic future of Poland

Challenges for and emigration-immigration country (2) • Net migration and demographic challenges

• Post-accession outflow and demographic future of Poland

• Additional effects: social impacts, impacts on family formation, regional disparities

• Net migration and demographic ageing

• Net migration and labour market needs

• Overall effects – replacement migration?

• Structure of immigration

• Sectoral effects (construction, agriculture, care services)

• Integration

• Lack of systemic solutions

• (Very) limited experience

• Ad-hoc measures

Challenges: immigration and demographic future of Poland

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

Tysiące

Source: Strzelecki 2012

Replacement migration? Net immigration needed to maintain the size of the labour force in Poland - estimation

Challenges: immigration and demographic future of Poland

Source: OBMF

Replacement migration? Recent and ‘future’ stocks necessary to maintain the number of persons aged 20-64

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

PL (1) PL (2) UK

Zasób imigrantów jao

odsetek ludności w wieku

20 - 64 lat (2050):

- PL (1): 43,6%

- PL (2): 45,7%

- Wielka Brytania: 12,3%

Stock of immigrants as a share of population aged 20-64 (2050): -PL (1 - Eurostat): 43,6% -PL (2 - UN): 45,7% -UK: 12,3%

Challenges for and emigration-immigration country (3) • Net migration and demographic challenges

• Post-accession outflow and demographic future of Poland

• Additional effects: social impacts, impacts on family formation, regional disparities

• Net migration and demographic ageing

• Net migration and labour market needs

• Overall effects – replacement migration?

• Structure of immigration

• Sectoral effects (construction, agriculture, care services)

• Integration

• Lack of systemic solutions

• (Very) limited experience Poland as primarily a transit country

• Ad-hoc measures