1

CPDC/Commonwealth FoundationCaribbean Regional Civil Society

Consultation

Presentation at the Consultation Panel on Presentation at the Consultation Panel on ““CLIMATE CHANGE ENVIRONMENT”CLIMATE CHANGE ENVIRONMENT”

ByByGarfield BarnwellGarfield BarnwellDirector, Sustainable DevelopmentDirector, Sustainable DevelopmentCaribbean Community (CARICOM) SecretariatCaribbean Community (CARICOM) SecretariatTurkeyen, Greater Georgetown, GUYANA Turkeyen, Greater Georgetown, GUYANA

Grand Coastal Hotel, GuyanaGrand Coastal Hotel, Guyana28 June, 201128 June, 2011

2

Structure of Presentation

• Background Information• Climate Change in a Global Context • Implications of Climate Change Science • Responding to the global challenges: the

basis for action• Observations and some key questions

3

Background Information• Climate change has emerged as one of the greatest

threats to sustainable development.

• The scientific consensus is that increased concentrations of greenhouse gas emissions, resulting from human activities, have contributed to global temperature increases.

• Predicted impacts, depending on the extent of temperature change, include sea level rises and more severe and frequent droughts and storms.

4

Figure I: The Greenhouse Effect

Met Office Hadley Centre

5

Figure 2 :Strong Global Warming Observed

Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and ResearchBased on Folland et al (2000) and Jones and Moberg (2003)

6

Figure III : Rapid rise in the stock of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere post 1850

Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre)

7

Flows of emissions of CO2 from burning fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950

Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT

0

5

10

15

20

25

1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

Gt C

O2

8

Global emissions of greenhouse gases come from a wide range of sources

Source: World Resources Institute. 2000 estimate.

Energy – 25.6 Gt 61%Consuming fossil fuels

Land Use changes 7.6 Gt 18% primarily deforestation

Agriculture 5.6 Gt 14%mostly from soils & livestock

Electricity & Heat Generation

Transport

IndustryOther energy

All GHG in CO2 equivalent

9

9.4

5.4

4.1

5.8

1.5

7.6

16.8

9.3

5.6

8.1

1.9

7.6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

PowerGeneration and

Heat Plants

Transport Industry Agriculture Waste Land Use

Global emissions are forecast to grow from all sources transport & power generation growing fastest

+2.1%

+2.1%

+1.1%

+1.2%

annual average forecast % growth in emissions to 2030

Source: International Energy Agency, US Environmental Protection Agency, CO2 equivalent

+0.7%

2002 actual emissions

2030 projected emissions

10

Projected Changes in Global Average Temperature to 2100 under Different IPCC Emissions Scenarios

(highest – A1FI, lowest – B1)

11

Change in the 2050s, based on IPCC Scenario A1

Warming will lead to major changes in water availability across the globe, with

consequences for droughts and floods

Source: Arnell (2004)

12

Increase in global temperature (relative to pre-industrial levels) for different stabilisation levels

(expressed as CO2 equivalent).

   Temperature change by 2100

(relative to pre-industrial)Temperature change at

equilibrium (relative to pre-industrial)

Stabilisation Level (CO2

equivalent)

Temperature change - based on

IPCC 2001 climate models

Temperature change - based on 2004 Hadley

Centre ensembles

Temperature change -

based on IPCC 2001 climate

models

Temperature change -

based on 2004 Hadley Centre

ensembles

400ppm 1.2 - 2.5C 1.6 - 2.8C 0.8 - 2.4C 1.3 - 2.8C

450ppm 1.3 - 2.7C 1.8 - 3.0C 1.0 - 3.1C 1.7 - 3.7C

550ppm 1.5 - 3.2C 2.2 - 3.6C 1.5 - 4.4C 2.4 - 5.3C

 

Source: Based on den Elzen and Meinhausen (2005).

13

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

US WestEurope

China Russia Japan India Africa Mexico Brazil

Larger developing countries account for much of the forecast rise in emissions

Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT Energy Information Administration Reference Scenario, Energy emissions only

39%

11%

145%

32%5%

95%78%

63%99%

Projected emissions, 2025

2002 emissions

Gt C

O2

Energy Emissions only

14

Current emissions per capita are higher in developed countries

20

1110

9

43

21

0

5

10

15

20

United Statesof America

RussianFederation

Japan EuropeanUnion (25)

World China Brazil India

Source: World Resources Institute, CAIT

2002 CO2Energy Emissions only

Ton

nes

per

pers

on p

er y

ear

CO

2

15

To stabilise at below 550 ppm, emissions must start to fall soon & developing countries

must be part of the solution

Business as usual

(A2)

Source IPPC

The Focus of the Regional Strategic Framework

• Adaptation challenges over time depends on Mitigation progress;

• Progress on Mitigation determines the approach to address the critical sectoral issues relating to Agriculture, Ecosystems, Water, Health, among others

17

The Regional Strategy

• The strategy document is guided by two processes:

(1)—the outcome of the BPOA and the MSI which is complemented by the UNFCCC decisions relating to Adaptation and the special circumstances of SIDS;

(2) The institutional information and best practices developed from the implementation of a series of region projects

18

The CARICOM Adaptation Guidelines

• The CARICOM Adaptation Programme is guided by the Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee’s recommended stages outlined below:

• Stage I: Planning, which includes studies of possible impacts of climate change, to identify particularly vulnerable countries or regions and policy options for adaptation and appropriate capacity building;

• Stage II: Measures, including further capacity-building, which may be taken to prepare for adaptation, as envisaged in Article 4.1(e) of the UNFCCC; and

• Stage III: Measures to facilitate adequate adaptation, including insurance, and other adaptation measures as envisaged by Article 4.1(b) and Article 4.4 of the UNFCCC.

19

Summary of the CARICOM Programme of Adaptation ( 1997-2011)

Public Awareness

and Participation

Implementation

Institution

KnowledgeBase

Policy

CPACC 1997 - 2001 ACCC 2001 - 2004

Building awareness and strengtheningknowledge base

1. Building Awareness2. Building monitoring and analysis capacity3. Building planning capacity in institutions

Public Awareness

and Participation

Implementation

Institution

KnowledgeBase

Policy

MACC 2004 - 2008 Building awareness and strengtheningknowledge base

1. Building national policy framework for adaptation2. Mainstreaming climate change issues into key sector activities3. Preparation of pilot adaptation projects4. Further strenghtening of awareness and participation andknowledge base

Public Awareness

and Participation

Implementation

Institution

KnowledgeBase

Institution

SPACC 2007 - 2011PILOT ADAPTATIONS

1. Policy framework for adaptation in place2. Projects implemented3. Awareness and participation accomplished4. Monitoring, analysis and planning integrated throughout all national and sectoral planning

20

21

ADDRESSING CLIMATE CHANGE( A Caribbean Programme of Action)

Factors Considered :

•Geographic location Natural and Anthropogenic effects •Impact of Global EconomicsChanges on the Caribbean•Desire for Economic sustainability in the region• The consequences of global warming and sea level rise in the Caribbean•The CARICOM Adaptation Programme

GEOGRAPHIC FACTORS

• The Caribbean consists of 28 insular and coastal states and ten territories;

• The World Bank in a May 2009 Report on Climate Change in the Hemispheric indicated that from a list of the 25 vulnerable countries to sea level rise 6 CARICOM (Suriname,Bahamas,Guyana,Belize,Jamaica,Haiti) are among the most vulnerable)

• It is one of the largest salt water seas and has an area of about 2,754,000 km² (1,063,000 square miles).

• It has an estimated population of 40 million people of which some 70% live in coastal cities, towns and villages

• Approximately 38 percent of the population can be classified as poor.

NATURAL & ANTHROPOGENIC FACTORS

• six months of hurricane activity • significant climate variability• several active volcanoes, both on land and

under water• Significant seismic activity

• Poor land marine practices• Damage to ecosystems use management

coupled with poor

ECONOMIC FACTORS

• Elements of economic globalization impacting the region’s environment through reduction of access to traditional markets as a result of the WTO agreement, since

• Economic activities are frequently dominated by tourism and specialized agriculture such as sugarcane, and

• Economic growth has failed to keep pace with population growth.

OBSERVED CHANGES IN CURRENT CLIMATE

• The region is already experiencing changing weather patterns with more intense extremes including drought, floods and hurricanes.

• Temperature records have shown an increase during the last century, with the 1990s being the warmest decade since the beginning of the 20th century.

• Rainfall trends have been changing along with increased flooding in some areas and unusual droughts in other areas.

• The tropical North Atlantic and Caribbean Sea warm pool has been expanding resulting in:– more frequent category 4 and 5 hurricanes resulting in

mechanical damage to coral reefs and coastal erosion;– extensive coral bleaching and mortality.

ECONOMIC SUSTAINABILITY

• Taken separately and collectively, these natural and anthropogenic factors are serious impediments to any effort at sustainable development and the attainment of the millennium development goals (MDG).

• As an example, Grenada an island of population 90,000 is still recovering from hurricane Ivan of 2004. Damage from the hurricane has set back the country by decades.

• The total damage was estimated at over US$1 billion compared to its GDP of US$440 million.

• Hurricane damage in 2004 for the greater Caribbean was in excess of US$4 billion.

• This yearly trend has continued through 2005, 2006, 2007 and 2008.

The consequences of global warming and sea level rise in the Caribbean

• A warming climate and rising sea levels will pose significant, and in some cases insurmountable challenges to the region’s economic and social vulnerability. It will certainly have a negative impact on:– Agriculture and Fisheries, hence on its food security – Tourism, hence on its economic sustainability– Health, through increases in vector-borne diseases

and other heat- related diseases– Water quality and quantity– Human Settlements, especially on the smaller

islands.

The consequences of global warming and sea level rise in the Caribbean

cont’d• A recent study has shown the potential

economic costs as a percentage of GDP to Caribbean SIDS if no action is taken to reduce the impacts of climate change:– By 2025 the average cost to the region will

be 14% of its GDP increasing to 39% by 2050, 45% by 2075 and 63% by 2100.

THE END

MANY THANKS FOR LISTENING

More Information:

www.caricom.org

www.caribbeanclimate.bz