Commercial Demand & Impact Assessment:

Edgemont Village Development

North Vancouver, British Columbia

Prepared for: Grosvenor Americas

November 2014

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INTRODUCTION

G.P. Rollo & Associates Ltd. (GPRA) has been retained by Grosvenor Americas to undertake a commercial

demand and impact assessment for the proposed mixed-use Edgemont Village development in Edgemont

Village, North Vancouver. Grosvenor has acquired a development site of approximately 2-acres at the

northwest end of Edgemont Village, currently occupied by Edgemont Market, three small service

commercial units and 4 single-family properties. To replace these structures, Grosvenor has proposed a

1.75 FSR mixed-use development containing over 97,000 square feet of residential, a full-service grocery

store of 33,790 square feet, a 10,000 square foot retail pharmacy, at least one 5,500+ square foot sit-

down restaurant with outdoor seating, and 20,000 additional square feet of as-yet unknown small retail

and service commercial uses.1 The intent of the development is to significantly enhance the vibrancy,

attractiveness and retail mix of Edgemont Village.

As part of the development approvals process, Grosvenor requires an independent analysis of the

feasibility and impact associated with the development’s commercial component, and specifically with

regards to three commercial categories: Grocery & Specialty Foods, Pharmacy & Personal Care, and Food

& Beverage.2 This executive-style report contains, in brief, our analysis and findings.

BACKGROUND & OVERVIEW

Edgemont Village and its environs today face a possible future of slow but steady commercial decline.

The neighbourhoods within a 5-8 minute drive of the Village are expected to see an accelerating loss of

population in the coming decade, and with population decline comes loss of retail dollars. From 2014 to

2024, the projected loss of population will translate to nearly $5-6 million in lost retail potential in the

immediate area.3 This loss will be compounded by increasing local and regional competition along the

Lonsdale and Marine Drive corridors. Facing such an environment, Edgemont Village businesses will be

required to seek new ways to increase their retention of local dollars and increase their draw of dollars

from beyond the local neighbourhoods. There are many opportunities to do so, particularly given

relatively low capture rates for local trade area spending across most merchandise categories today.

However, the key to a sustainable, successful community-serving commercial village is a strong retail

grocery anchor. Today, such an anchor is lacking in Edgemont Village. While Edgemont Market (formerly

SuperValu) has played that role in the past, today the store is undersized and outdated in terms of its

shopping experience. The proposed new grocery anchor is intended to fill this gap and, along with

ancillary retail and service providers, is intended to increase the proportion of local and nearby spending

1 These and any other statistics pertaining to commercial floor area, residential floor area or residential units in the proposed development are based on the preliminary application which was submitted by Grosvenor on March 12th 2014.

2 Personal Care encompasses all cosmetic, health, bath and beauty products. Food & Beverage includes both sit-down and quick-serve restaurants, as well as coffee shops. Grocery & Specialty Foods includes supermarkets, smaller markets, specialty food retailers (e.g. fish, meat) and convenience stores.

3 PTA population is forecast to decrease from 15,680 in 2014 to 15,140 by 2024, a 3.4% decline over 10 years or 0.34% decline per year.

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that is captured in the Village, in turn bringing patrons and their dollars into the Village for potential

capture by other businesses. As this analysis shows, the development will be complementary to, rather

than competitive with, the existing business mix in Edgemont Village.

It is projected that the new grocery store, nearly 3x the size of the existing store, would:

Play the role of a much-needed strong anchor tenant for the entire Village, increasing the

proportion of local and nearby spending that is captured in the Village, in turn bringing more

patrons and their dollars to the Village for potential capture by all businesses.

Significantly increase the proportion of local grocery-related spending that is retained in the

Village. It is projected that such spending in Edgemont Village would increase by over $11 million

following opening of the new store.

Bring new patrons and their retail dollars across the range of merchandise categories into the

Village each year.

Triple the number of parking spaces on-site. All commercial parking will be free of charge for 2

hours, as it is in the Village as a whole. This will be to the benefit of all businesses in the Village,

and will help to attract patrons to the Village who may have otherwise travelled to Marine Drive.

Patrons from neighbourhoods like Pemberton Heights and Hamilton, many of whom would

otherwise shop at Capilano Square, Pemberton Plaza and other points along Marine, could be

attracted to Edgemont Village due to increased ease of parking, combined with the ever

increasing traffic congestion near competitive locations as well as the quality of experience in

Edgemont Village which is unique in North Vancouver.

Bring a full-line, modern grocery store into a trade area that is not only lacking such a store, but

which has an average household income level that is nearly 40% higher than the average for the

District of North Vancouver and 77% higher than the North Shore overall.

By introducing a much-needed modern grocery anchor tenant, important ancillary retailers in the

Pharmacy and Personal Care categories, and providing a significant increase in (free) parking, the

proposed development will:

Increase the level of spending retention from Edgemont Village and residents of nearby

neighbourhoods;

Increase the draw of patrons from neighbourhoods to the east, south and southeast, and

counteract the long-term stagnation of the Village that will otherwise be the result of slowly

decreasing local area population and increased competition at well-anchored commercial

precincts on Marine Drive, Lonsdale Avenue and elsewhere.

Within the merchandise categories that are the subject of this analysis (Grocery, Personal Care, Pharmacy,

Food & Beverage) there is no projected negative impact on local business as a result of the proposed

development. The anticipated increased capture of dollars will more than offset any impact, and will

provide additional opportunities for businesses in those categories. These 4 categories today account for

25% of Edgemont Village’s commercial space.

Within all other merchandise categories (i.e. the other 75% of Edgemont Village commercial floor area),

the draw of new patrons as well as the increased retention of spending from existing patrons could result

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in a large amount of new spending potential available for capture. Net of grocery, pharmacy, personal

care and food & beverage, GPRA estimates that Edgemont Village businesses achieve approximately $27

million in annual sales volume today, the equivalent of 38% of PTA resident spending. Within the PTA

(shown in the map below), gross spending across all other merchandise categories comes to $90 million.

COMPETING RETAIL AREAS

As part of the process of determining the demand and impact of retail space in Edgemont Village, GPRA

undertook a review of competitive retail on the North Shore. Altogether, nine distinct retail nodes or

precincts were reviewed, as per the following table:

Based on this review, GPRA concluded that:

The North Shore’s limited room for retail expansion has helped protect Edgemont Village from

excessive new competition in recent years. There are no major anchored retail locations outside

of Edgemont Village anywhere in the Primary Trade Area, depicted in the map below.

Developments that seek to replicate main street shopping environments like the Village at Park

Royal and Lynn Valley Village could, over time, diminish the uniqueness of Edgemont’s character

and market position.

Edgemont Village does have an advantageous geographic location, being proximate to a

relatively underserved population base, but future success of the Village will be contingent on

re-investment and improvements aimed at maintaining and improving market share. In

particular, the Village requires a major grocery anchor tenant to draw patrons to the Village.

Competitive Area

Distance from

Edgemont

Village (km)

GLA

(Sq.ft.)Format Anchors

Competitive

Influence

Westview Shopping Centre 1.0 68,150 Open PlazaSafeway, Mosquito Creek Bar &

GrillModerate

Marine Plaza 1.5 32,700 Open Plaza Mark's, Future Shop Low

Pemberton Plaza 1.5 95,000 Open PlazaSave-on Foods, Vancity,

StarbucksLow

Capilano Mall 1.7 400,820 Regional CentreWalmart, Sears, Urban Planet,

Visions, She's FitModerate

Capilano Square 1.8 90,000 Open Plaza PriceSmart, Shoppers Low

845 Marine Drive 1.9 90,000 Open PLazaThrifty Foods, Bed Bath &

Beyond, GolftownLow

Park Royal 2.8 1,400,000 Super Regional

The Bay, Winners, Home

Depot, HomeSense, Michaels,

Future Shop, London Drugs,

Sport Check, Atmosphere, Old

Navy, H&M, Staples, The Brick,

Indigo, Osaka Supermarket,

Shoppers, Whole Foods, Extra

Foods.

High

Lynn Valley Centre 4.5 181,500Enclosed

community mall

Save-On Foods, BC Liquor,

WinnersModerate

Lynn Valley Village 4.6 22,000 Open Plaza Browns, North Van Library. Low

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TRADE AREA DELINEATION

Building on the competitive sites review, and taking into consideration driving times and distances to

reach each of the competing sites, GPRA delineated Primary and Secondary trade areas for Edgemont

Village (PTA and STAs). The map below shows the PTA and STAs for Edgemont Village and the locations of

existing major grocery stores (red dots). As is shown, the PTA has no major grocery stores today.

Future retail opportunity in Edgemont Village will be in part a function of changes in population and

associated retail expenditure potential in the respective merchandise categories.

The PTA population, from which at least 65% of Edgemont Village’s customer base is likely drawn, is

projected to

contract at an

average annual

rate of -0.3%,

even after

accounting for

the additional

units in the

Village core at

both the subject

site and at

Edgemont

Senior Living.

STA - S

Edgemont

Village

PTA

STA - E

STA - SE

15,680 15,600 15,682 15,744 15,671 15,599 15,506 15,413 15,321 15,230 15,140

11,812 11,862 11,912 11,963 12,014 12,065 12,073 12,080 12,088 12,095 12,103

6,147 6,129 6,112 6,094 6,071 6,049 6,017 5,984 5,952 5,921 5,889

9,567 9,744 9,924 10,107 10,265 10,426 10,548 10,672 10,798 10,925 11,053

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Edgemont Village Trade Areas Population Projections, 2014-2024

PTA STA-E STA - S STA - SE

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The table below shows average household incomes within the PTA and STAs, as well as the District of

North Vancouver. The average incomes in the PTA are nearly 40% higher than the District overall in 2014.

Within the combined retail categories examined in this study, the trade area populations have an

aggregate gross expenditure potential of approximately $193.6 million in 2014. Based on expected

changes in population and inflation-adjusted per-capita expenditures, this figure is expected to reach

nearly $213 million by 2024.

Avg. Household Income*

PTA STA - E STA - S STA - SE Total, all TA DNV

2014 Estimate 178,868$ 130,703$ 104,953$ 79,147$ 129,375$ 128,689$

2024 Projected 243,928$ 181,867$ 151,068$ 111,253$ 176,361$ 180,036$

Annual Growth 3.3% 3.0% 2.8% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0%

*Based on Environics Analytics DemoStats 2014 database

Gross Retail Expenditures, All Trade Areas

PTA STA E STA S STA SE TOTAL

Grocery & Specialty Foods

2014 41,169,403$ 32,853,719$ 17,756,947$ 21,643,070$ 113,423,139$

2024 41,783,948$ 35,384,638$ 17,881,636$ 26,283,541$ 121,333,763$

Pharmacy & Personal Care

2014 9,338,235$ 7,574,230$ 4,253,388$ 4,774,706$ 25,940,559$

2024 10,418,435$ 8,967,791$ 4,757,933$ 6,441,187$ 30,585,346$

Food & Beverage

2014 20,096,696$ 15,553,348$ 8,167,528$ 10,448,966$ 54,266,538$

2024 21,328,356$ 17,516,684$ 8,643,362$ 13,334,952$ 60,823,354$

TOTAL

2014 70,604,335$ 55,981,297$ 30,177,863$ 36,866,742$ 193,630,237$

2024 73,530,738$ 61,869,113$ 31,282,931$ 46,059,680$ 212,742,462$

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EDGEMONT VILLAGE MARKET PENETRATION, 2014

GPRA estimates that Edgemont Village’s inventory of Grocery and Specialty Food floor area, Pharmacy &

Personal Care, and Food & Beverage establishments are, on the whole, only capturing 9-11% of the

combined expenditure potential available in the PTA and STAs in 2014. Capture is lowest in the

pharmacy category (2%) and highest in the grocery category (11-13%). The following table shows

estimated sales achieved vs. dollars available.

Even if we were to assume that 100% of sales in Edgemont Village today were attributable only to

residents of the PTA, spending leakage would still be relatively high, particularly in the pharmacy and

personal care categories as shown in the following table.

Using a more realistic assumption that 65%-70% of overall sales in Edgemont Village are attributable to

PTA residents4, PTA leakage figures are much higher as shown below.

4 This assumption is based on a review of available primary survey data collected at two comparable street retail

precincts in Metro Vancouver, with adjustments for Edgemont Village’s unique local attributes and proximities. See Appendix A for details on these surveys.

Current Market Penetration

Low High Low High Low High

Retail Categories

Grocery & Specialty Foods 21,862 $550 $700 $12,023,929 $15,303,182 $113,423,139 11% 13%

Pharmacy 534 $400 $425 $213,749 $227,108 $9,788,752 2% 2%

Personal Care 3,096 $400 $425 $1,238,394 $1,315,794 $16,151,807 8% 8%

Food & Beverage 11,913 $375 $450 $4,467,510 $5,361,012 $54,266,538 8% 10%

Totals 37,405 $480 $594 $17,943,582 $22,207,097 $193,630,237 9% 11%

*$/sq.ft. GLA annual sales

Inventory

(sq.ft.)

Est. Sales Performance* Est. Retail Sales Trade Area

Expenditures

% Spending Capture

Retail Leakage Estimates: 100% Edgemont Village Sales Attributable to PTA Residents

Low High

Retail Categories

Grocery & Specialty Foods 41,169,403$ $12,023,929 $15,303,182

Pharmacy 3,518,053$ $213,749 $227,108

Personal Care 5,820,183$ $1,238,394 $1,315,794

Food & Beverage 20,096,696$ $4,467,510 $5,361,012

Total 70,604,335$ $17,943,582 $22,207,097

77%-79%

73-78%

69-75%

PTA Leakage

63-71%

93.5%-94%

Est. Retail Sales PTA Gross

Expenditures

Retail Leakage Estimates: 65-70% Edgemont Village Sales Attributable to PTA Residents

Low High

Retail Categories

Grocery & Specialty Foods 12,023,929$ 15,303,182$ $7.8-$10.7 m $30-$33 74-81%

Pharmacy 213,749$ 227,108$ $210-$230,000 $3.4-$3.5 95-96%

Personal Care 1,238,394$ 1,315,794$ $800-$865,000 $5.0-$5.1 85-86%

Food & Beverage 4,467,510$ 5,361,012$ $2.9-$3.7 m $16-$17 81-86%

Total 17,943,582$ $22,207,097 $11.7-15.5m $54.4-$58.6 78%-83%

Est. PTA Leakage (%)Est. Retail Sales

Est. PTA

Expenditure at

Edgemont

Est. PTA

Leakage

($millions))

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FUTURE MARKET OPPORTUNITY

In an environment with limited or negative population growth and relatively flat per-capita expenditure

growth after inflation, the opportunity to expand retail space in a way that is complementary to existing

businesses is a function of capturing a greater proportion of available dollars.

Given that:

1. There is relatively low resident spending capture in Edgemont Village today (see above tables);

2. There is a dearth of anchored competitive retail locations within the Village’s Primary Trade Area;

3. Edgemont Village is today quite unique in North Vancouver in terms of its pedestrian-oriented

village environment.

GPRA believes that:

There is ample opportunity to increase the proportion of local dollars captured in Edgemont

Village and to attract new patrons to the Village;

An increase in capture rates will be driven by the addition of a new, modern, higher quality

grocery store and supportive ancillary retail and service commercial tenants.

The chart at right depicts

existing spending capture

in Edgemont Village (low

estimate, all trade areas

combined) vs. what GPRA

believes is achievable

following opening of the

new grocery-anchored

development.

The chart at right

shows the current

(2014) estimated

spending captured in

Edgemont Village vs.

what is expected in

2017 under both

existing conditions and

with the new

development.

11%

2%

7%9%

20%19% 19%

12%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Grocery & Specialty Food Pharmacy Personal Care Food & Beverage

Edgemont Village Combined Trade Area Capture Rates

Existing Conditions vs. With New Development

Existing Conditions With New Development

$-

$5,000,000

$10,000,000

$15,000,000

$20,000,000

$25,000,000

Grocery & Specialty

Foods

Pharmacy Personal Care Food & Beverage

Projected Spending in Edgemont Village

2014 2017 Without Project 2017 With project

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If baseline capture rate conditions were to persist, we would expect at best relatively little

upward movement in spending at Edgemont Village businesses in the coming years due to

limited population growth in the Secondary Trade Areas and population decline in the Primary

Trade Area.

Given the emergence of stronger retail competition near Edgemont Village in the coming years,

in conjunction with the slow decline of population in the PTA, it is more likely that proportions of

retail spending captured in the Village will decline over time.

Under the conditions that GPRA believes are achievable with the presence of a new modern

grocery store, full-line pharmacy, new food & beverage establishment and supportive ancillary

commercial or community space, spending in the Village from the PTA + STAs is expected to

increase by $17.3 million in 2017 over what would be expected under baseline conditions, within

the study merchandise categories.

RETAIL IMPACTS

GPRA believes that achieving a higher local spending capture is directly linked to Edgemont Village

creating a new reason for local residents to come and shop, something that can be done through

introduction of a new development with a high-quality grocery anchor, appropriate ancillary tenants, and

an engaging public realm that integrates into the existing village environment.

With higher trade area spending capture rates associated with the introduction of a new major anchor

development5, GPRA projects an increase of $17.3 million in net Village expenditures from combined

trade area residents (PTA + STAs) by 2017 in the 4 study categories, as shown in the figure above. Given

5 See Appendix B for details on assumed capture rate increases.

$11,300,000

$1,700,000 $2,000,000 $2,300,000

Grocery & SpecialtyFoods

Pharmacy Personal Care Food & Beverage

Increased Spending in Edgemont Village by 2017, with new development

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the expected spending potential of residents, the estimated productivity (sales per square foot) of the

new tenants and those tenants’ overall effect in both stemming spending leakage and drawing new

patrons to the Village, GPRA does not forecast a negative impact on existing retail businesses in the study

categories as a result of the new development. Rather, the increased draw will create residual room in the

market for other businesses in those categories to capture additional retail spending.

For all other businesses in Edgemont Village, the additional money (and time) spent in the Village by

current patrons, plus the presence of new patrons who today do not come to Edgemont Village, will mean

significant additional dollars circulating in the Village available for capture. For instance, if 30% of the new

spending in the 4 study categories is attributable to new visitors to the Village (a conservative but realistic

assumption), this translates to an estimated 3,700 to 6,500 new visitors per year, with combined annual

expenditure potential of $22.6 to $40 million net of the 4 merchandise categories at study. A portion of

this spending potential would be available for capture by existing local businesses.

The chart below shows the amount of net additional space proposed at the Grosvenor development

(hatched green) vs. the amount of space supportable under the projected capture rates (blue). As is

shown, there will be sufficient room within the market to support the proposed space without unduly

impacting businesses operating within these merchandise categories.

19,400

9,400

5,600

18,775 7,560 4,650

G R O C E R Y & S P E C I A L T Y F O O D S P H A R M A C Y & P E R S O N A L C A R E F O O D & B E V E R A G E

Net Additional Space Proposed vs. Additional Space

Supportable(sq.ft .) , 2017

Net Additional Space Supportable Net New Space Proposed

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TRANSITION PERIOD: 2015-2016

One of the key challenges facing Edgemont Village businesses is the potential loss of sales during the

2015-2016 period following the closure of Edgemont Market and preceding the opening of the new

development. The challenge will be to retain as much of the grocery-related patronage within the Village

as possible through strategic re-merchandising, advertising and coordination with the developer and

future anchor tenants.

There will be an estimated $5.3 to $5.8 million in annual grocery spending that will be displaced each year

during the construction period that will instead flow to both nearby retailers and to grocery stores outside

of Edgemont Village. As shoppers often make ancillary purchases on a range of merchandise categories

while on grocery shopping trips, the closure of the grocery store during construction may also have a

temporary impact on nearby non-grocery retailers. It is therefore in the interest of the entire business

community to have in place an effective, coordinated strategy to retain and attract spending during this

period. Such a strategy would ideally be developed through consultations between the representatives of

the project proponent, the Edgemont Village Business Association, and other business representatives.

RETAIL IMPACT & OPPORTUNITY SYNOPSIS

The presence of a new full-line modern grocery store, pharmacy and ancillary commercial space in

Edgemont Village is likely to have the following beneficial spin-offs for businesses in the Village:

1. Increased spending from those who already shop in Edgemont Village:

Customers that already come to shop in Edgemont Village will be more likely to spend

additional time and money in Edgemont Village with the presence of the new grocery

store, substituting these trips for those they may have otherwise made to grocery-

anchored retail precincts elsewhere in North Vancouver.

These additional trips that are driven by the new grocery anchor will in turn benefit the

businesses in the Village that sell merchandise in categories outside the scope of this

study.

Additional trips to the new grocery store will also drive more business to specialty

grocery operators in the Village such as fruit/vegetable vendors, butchers, and seafood

markets.

Given the geographic location of Edgemont Village vis-à-vis the population of the PTA,

and its location relative to competitive grocery-anchored retail precincts, GPRA believes

that the projected capture rates applied in this study are very achievable and somewhat

conservative. With the right retail mix, even higher rates are possible, which would be to

the benefit of all businesses in the Village.

2. New Visitors to Edgemont Village

In addition to capturing more spending from those who already shop in the Village, the

new development will likely encourage some new patrons to come to the Village who

today shop elsewhere. While the numbers will be modest on a day-to-day basis (e.g. if

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6,500 new visitors come to the Village per year, this equals only 18 new visitors in each

24 hour period), they will prove beneficial.

If even 10% of the net additional sales volume expected in the Village due to the new

development is attributable to new visitors (vs. more spending by current visitors), this

would result in 1,200 to 2,200 new patrons in the Village each year (3-6 per day). These

patrons would bring with them $7.5 to $13.2 million in new annual retail potential

outside of the merchandise categories examined in this study, a portion of which could

be captured by local businesses.

GPRA believes that a conservative but realistic assumption is that 30% of additional

sales volume in the Village, following opening of the new development, could be

attributable to new shoppers. This equates to between 3,700 and 6,500 new patrons in

the Village each year (10-18 per day), bringing with them $22.5 to $40 million in annual

retail potential outside of the 4 merchandise categories examined in this study. The

opportunity will be there for a portion of those dollars to be captured by local business.

The table below provides a summary of the estimated total spending leakage in 2014 in the 4

merchandise categories addressed in this study, as well as the net new incremental spending expected in

the Village by 2017 as a result of the new proposed development.

New Incremental Spending in

Edgemont Village, 2017 (3)

From all Trade Areas ($

millions) (2)

From Edgemont Village &

PTA From all Trade Areas ($ millions)

Grocery & Specialty Foods $98-$101 $30-$33 $11.30

Pharmacy $9.5-$9.6 $3.4-$3.5 $1.70

Personal Care $14.9-$15 $5.0-$5.1 $2.00

Food & Beverage $48.9-$49.8 $16-$17 $2.30

Total $171.3-175.4 $54.4-$58.6 $17.30

(2) Range of leakage is a function of low vs. high estiamtes of sales per sq.ft. in Edgemont Village today.

(1) Leakage figures are for the 4 categories under study only, representing 25% of the existing commercial floor area in

the Village. There is likely considerable leakage in all other merchandise categories, the quantification of which is beyond

the scope of this study.

(3) New incremental spending in the Village is the difference between what would be expected under a status quo

scenario (i.e no change in capture rates) vs. what is achievable with the introduction of the new grocery anchor and

associated ancillary tenants.

Estimated Total Spending Leakage (2014) (1)

Category

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APPENDIX A: RELATIVE MARKET IMPACT OF TRADE AREAS

In undertaking the retail demand and impact assessment for Edgemont Village, the relative market impact

of customers living within the primary and secondary trade areas was estimated. A review of available

primary survey data collected at two other street retail precincts in Metro Vancouver assisted to inform

the assumed ratios applicable to Edgemont Village.

A survey conducted by the Mount Pleasant BIA in Vancouver found that 63% of customers are local

shoppers, while the remaining 37% originated from beyond the local area.6 A second applicable survey

conducted by Urbanics for the Ambleside neighbourhood found that 60% of customers came from the

two immediately adjacent postal code FSAs, with an additional 23% of customers coming from the next

three nearest FSAs. In comparison to Mount Pleasant and Ambleside, Edgemont Village is expected to

have lower levels of inflow due to its smaller relative size and more isolated location.

Mount Pleasant BIA

The Mount Pleasant BIA regularly conducts resident household and shopper intercept surveys. These

surveys show that the BIA enjoys a mix of local shoppers as well as those living in other areas of

Vancouver, and that shoppers are very satisfied with the BIA. In the 2005 shopper intercept survey, 63%

of respondents were locals and almost 25% shop in the area on a daily basis. Other important survey

results were as follows:

98% will return to the BIA. Top three reasons are diversity of people and culture (29%), centrality

and convenience (27%) and community feeling (21%).

87% feel safe, primarily due to the significant number of people in the area.

Groceries and the variety of local cafes are the primary reasons people come to Mount Pleasant.

Businesses that these customers would like to see in the BIA include:

o Organic groceries and deli

o Cultural businesses including music, bookstores and galleries

o Hardware store

o Movie theatre

o Major bank

o Trendy clothing stores

6 Mount Pleasant Neighbourhood Profile, BizMap Market Area Profiles. Vancouver Economic Development

Commission. http://www.vancouvereconomic.com/userfiles/mount-pleasant-neighbourhood.pdf

~ 13 ~

Ambleside Customer Intercept Survey

60% of customers at Ambleside reside within what would be defined as the Primary Trade Area.

~ 14 ~

APPENDIX B: CAPTURE RATE ASSUMPTIONS

GPRA has estimated that in 2014, Edgemont Village businesses capture the following proportions of

Primary and Secondary Trade Area Spending:

GPRA believes that the proposed development will, have the effect of significantly increasing the capture

from both Primary and Secondary trade area residents. Edgemont Village is competitively and

geographically set apart from other retail districts in North Vancouver. Is has an extensive and wealthy

PTA where road networks largely feed people into Edgemont Village from points north. Is has a growing

STA to the east that is served by Westview Shopping Centre which, at present, has limited appeal due to

both its narrow array of tenant offerings (including an undersized Safeway), and its marginal shopping

experience. Furthermore, a small but growing proportion of residents south of the Upper Levels Highway,

particularly those in neighbourhoods like Pemberton Heights and Hamilton (STA-S) will likely increase

their propensity to frequent a better served Edgemont Village at the expense of trips to Capilano Square,

Pemberton Plaza and other points along Marine Drive. This shift in spending will likely occur due to an

increased ease of parking and access at Edgemont Village, eve-increasing traffic congestion near

competition on Marine Drive, and the quality of experience in Edgemont Village which is quite unique in

North Vancouver.

Under the projected capture rates scenario, by 2017 there would be net additional support for:

19,500 square feet of Grocery & Specialty Food space;

10,000 square feet of Pharmacy + Personal Care space

5,600 square feet of restaurant space.

In summary, future growth demand is tied to increased capture of trade area retail dollars. Achieving an

increased level of dollar capture is linked to Edgemont Village stimulating people to come there,

something that can only be done through the introduction of a significant new anchor draw. Without

such a catalyst development, Edgemont Village faces a likely future of slow but steady market erosion as

competition increases and the primary trade area population declines.

Category %

Grocery & Specialty Foods 11%

Pharmacy 2%

Personal Care 8%

Food & Beverage 8%

Baseline Capture Rates, Combined PTA + STAs

Category %

Grocery & Specialty Foods 20%

Pharmacy 19%

Personal Care 19%

Food & Beverage 12%

Projected Capture Rates, Combined PTA + STAs