cocaine smuggling in 2011...2011 top ten cocaine consuming countries, ranked by prevalence estimated...

PCN 31646

Produced for theO F F I C E O F N A T I O N A L D R U G C O N T R O L P O L I C Y

Cocaine Smuggling

in 2011

Cocaine Smuggling

in 2011

Produced for the OFFICE OF NATIONAL DRUG CONTROL POLICY

Cocaine Smuggling in 2011

Cocaine Flow to Global MarketsThe amount of cocaine departing South America remained fairly level in 2011, from 833 metric tons of cocaine in 2010 to 847 metric tons in 2011. Most of this cocaine, 64 percent, was likely destined for the United States. Global cocaine flow is calculated by combining movement-based, consumption-based, and production-based cocaine flow estimates. Go-fasts1 were the leading transportation method used to move

2011 Top Ten Cocaine Consuming Countries, Ranked by Prevalence

Estimated Numbers of Cocaine Users1

Country-Reported Annual Prevalence Rate2

Change in Prevalence Rate from 2007

Spain

Argentina

United Kingdom

Mexico

United States

Italy

Peru

Bolivia

Germany

Brazil

1 The number of users is calculated by adding the number of hardcore and moderate users who were assumed to have used in the past month and recreational users who were assumed to have used in the past year, but not in the past month. 2 The annual prevalence rate is a United Nations estimate of the percentage of a country’s population who were users of cocaine in the past year. Prevalence rates for Peru and Mexico are obtained from alternative sources.

823,515

690,430

1,037,008

1,779,649

258,922

954,338

484,609

139,214

884,827

5,332,584

2.6%

2.6%

2.5%

2.4%

1.4%

0.7%

0.9%

0.8%

2.2%

2.2%

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.9

0.1

0.8

Figure 1. The United States continues to be the top cocaine consumer nation worldwide, but the percentage of the U.S. population assumed to have used cocaine regularly has decreased since 2007.

1 A type of maritime craft, typically a 28- to 45-foot open-hull boat with one or more high-powered outboard motors, capable of operating in excess of 25 knots in shallow waters; a go-fast can typically carry up to 2 metric tons of cocaine.

CONFIDENTIAL//REL TO USA, AUS, CAN, ESP, FRA, GBR, NLD, NZL/DEA SENSITIVE


3

cocaine out of South America to Central America and the Caribbean Sea, for transshipment. Traffickers predominantly used private vehicles to transport cocaine onward through Central America and Mexico to the United States. Cocaine destined for areas other than the United States was primarily smuggled on com-mercial maritime containers.

In 2011 cocaine consumption in the United States declined for the fourth consecutive year, whereas con-sumption in Africa, Eastern Europe, and Asia slightly increased. The United States accounted for 46 percent of global cocaine consumption, followed by Mexico and Brazil, each of which accounted for 5 percent.

Cocaine ConsumptionThe Americas accounted for roughly 70 percent of the world’s cocaine consumption in 2011. North America continued to account for more than half of global consumption; the United States is the pri-mary consumer even though its consumption has decreased considerably since 2007. In 2011, Mexico tied Brazil as the second-largest consumer of cocaine. The remainder of the cocaine outside of the Americas was largely consumed in Western Europe.

Cocaine Source Zone: South AmericaColombian cocaine accounted for almost 41 percent of the cocaine available for export to other countries in 2011. The amount of cocaine available from Peru accounted for 35 percent, and Bolivia accounted for 25 percent. The amount of cocaine available to depart a source country each year is based on several fac-tors: estimated production, purity, a time lag based on DEA findings 2, 3 to account for processing and transportation delays after harvest, seizures, and in-country consumption. Most Colombian production is destined for the U.S. market, and most Peruvian and Bolivian cocaine is consumed in South America or transported to markets in the Eastern Hemisphere, primarily in Europe. The amount of Colombian cocaine available for export in 2011 decreased about 5 percent from 2010 levels, and Peruvian and Boliv-ian cocaine available for export increased 16 percent.

2 Ehleringer, J.R., Casale, J.F., Barnette, J.E., Xu, X., Lott, M.J., & Hurley, J.M. (2011). Carbon 14 analyses quantify time lag between coca leaf harvest and street-level seizure of cocaine. Forensic Science International, 7-12.

3 Ehleringer, J.R., Casale, J.F., Barnette, J.E., Xu, X., Lott, M.J., & Hurley, J.M. (2011). Carbon 14 calibration curves for modern plant material from tropical regions of South America. Radiocarbon, 53(4), 585-594.

4

Cocaine Threat by Producing Country, 2011

BRAZIL

ARGENTINA URUGUAY

CHILE

BOLIVIA

PERU

ECUADOR

VENEZUELA

COLOMBIA

GUYANASURINAME

FRENCH GUIANA

PARAGUAY

Atlantic Ocean

Paci�c Ocean

The Global Flow Estimate (GFE) of 847 metric tons (MT) is the amount that departed South America to global destinations in 2011 in export quality.4

Intraregional Movement of Andean Potential Cocaine Production

Percentage Metric TonRange

Global FlowEstimate

POINTS OF DEPARTURE

FROM SOUTH AMERICA

Total 847 MT

Global Cocaine Flow Estimate

2-4% 17-34

10-15% 85-127

2-5% 17-42

30-45% 254-381

7-13% 59-110

10-15% 85-127

19-25% 161-211

2-5% 17-42

1-2% 2-17

24 MT

109 MT

40 MT

255 MT

84 MT

126 MT

167 MT

40 MT

2 MT

BoliviaBrazil

Chile

Colombia

Ecuador

Peru

Venezuela

Argentina

Rest of S. America

Figure 2. An estimated 847 metric tons of export-quality cocaine4 departed South America to external markets in 2011.

4 Export-quality cocaine is the average purity of cocaine HCl that departs from South America. It typically includes impurities from the production process and possibly adulterants added after the production process is complete.



5

Cocaine Flow Toward the United StatesThe estimated amount of cocaine available for export from South America toward the United States decreased by roughly 4 percent in 2011 from 2010, continuing a downward trend that began in 2008; this 4-percent decrease is based primarily on Colombian cocaine production data that is consistent with a 5-year trend line of cocaine movement toward the United States. Cocaine production in Colombia, which remains the major source country for the United States, has decreased over the past 4 years. This trend is consistent with declines in U.S. cocaine consumption, decreased by 5 percent from 2007 to 2011. Despite these trends, in 2011 the United States remained the largest cocaine consumer country in the world, accounting for an estimated 46 percent of the world’s cocaine consumption.

The amount of Colombian cocaine available for export decreased in 2011 for the third consecutive year to the lowest level since 2000. The purity levels of cocaine produced in Colombia were also at record lows, suggesting traffickers augmented the decreased Colombian cocaine supply with additives. In 2011 Colombian cocaine was 73-percent pure, the lowest purity level on record for the second consecutive year. In addition to the lower purity levels, fewer seizures of cocaine in Colombia parallels the decrease in Colombian production: in 2011 less cocaine was seized in Colombia than in any year since 2002.

Movement Toward the United States, 2007—2011

* Demand metric ton values are estimates derived by multiplying United Nations reported prevalence rates, U.S. Census Bureau population �gures; and the typical cocaine user dosage; Movement toward the United States is from U.S. government event-level movement data.

Met

ric

Tons

(M

T)

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Production: Colombian Cocaine Available to Depart

Movement: Toward U.S.

400

200

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

0

709 8391,1431,3031,404

399 385514627614

Movement toward the United States (5-year trend line)

Figure 3. Indicators of export-quality cocaine departing South America toward the United States have decreased for the past 5 years.

6

Departing South America Toward the United StatesIn 2011 the Western Caribbean emerged as the preferred path for U.S.-bound cocaine departing South America, surpassing the Eastern Pacific for the first time since 1996. The Guajira Peninsula emerged as a major area for maritime departures moving cocaine to Central America. Honduras continued to be the main transit hub for noncommercial air and maritime movements in the Western Caribbean.

In addition to using go-fast vessels, traffickers used noncommercial aircraft and submersible vessels to ship cocaine toward the United States. The amount of cocaine documented departing into the Carib-bean from the Gulf of Uraba, which straddles Colombia’s Choco and Antioquia Departments, and from Colombia’s La Guajira Department, near the Venezuelan border, increased significantly in 2011.

Cocaine Flow Distribution Toward the U.S. by Vector and Conveyance, 2011

Gulf of Mexico

Paci�c Ocean

Boundary representations are not necessarily authoritative.

% Distribution Represents Con�rmed, Substantiated and High Con�dence Suspect (1p) Primary Movement

Percentages based on shipments documented departing South America

Recorded movement toward the U.S. decreased by 19% compared to 2010.

Western Caribbean 49% ( 6%)26% Go-Fast 2%12% Noncommercial Air 1% 7% Submersible 7%3% Motor Vessel 2%1% Fishing Vessel 2%

Eastern Pacific 46% ( 7%)Eastern Pacific-South

4% ( 1%) 3% Submersible 1%1% Go-Fast 1%<1% Fishing Vessel 1%

Eastern Pacific 42% ( 8%) 24% Go-Fast 7% 11% Submersible 4%4% Ecuadorian Panga 3%2% Fishing Vessel 1%

Hispaniola 4% ( 1%) 3% Go-Fast 2%<1% Noncommercial Air 1%

Other Caribbean Puerto Rico, Antigua, Northern Lesser Antilles1% ( )

Mexico/Central America Corridor 95% ( )

Caribbean Corridor5% ( )

Direct to U.S.<1% ( )

Increased from 2010Decreased from 2010Same from 2010

Data derived from U.S. government event-level movement data

Figure 4. Traffickers increased their use of Western Caribbean routes to move cocaine toward the United States in 2011.



7

Cocaine Movement Through Central AmericaNorthern Central America is the primary transshipment area for cocaine moving toward the United States. In 2011 up to 329 metric tons of cocaine arrived in northern Central America, mostly Hondu-ras, from South America and southern Central America. A vast majority of the cocaine transshipped along southern Central America’s Pacific coast is transferred from maritime vessels to vehicles in Costa Rica for overland movement through Nicaragua. Most cocaine that arrives along the Caribbean coast of southern Central America continues to Honduras on go-fast vessels. Negligible amounts of cocaine arrive along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador or Nicaragua.

Central America Maintains its Role as Preferred Transshipment Region for Primary Cocaine Movement, 2011

MEXICO

GUATEMALA

EL SALVADOR

BELIZE

HONDURAS

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

HAITI

COSTA RICA

PANAMA

COLOMBIA

VENEZUELA

La Mesilla

Tecun Uman

Coiba Islands

Isla del Rey

El Ceibo

GuajiraPeninsula

Paci�c Ocean

Western Caribbean Sea

Northern Central America

Southern Central AmericaGulf of Uraba

San Andres (Colombia)

43 MT 3 MT

3 MT

42 MT

49 MT

7 MT

15 MT

3 MT

5 MT

143 MT

27 MT

86 MT 44 MT

Boundary representations are not necessarily authoritative.

Pan-American HighwayCocaine arrived from South America via all conveyances after seizures en routeCocaine arrived through Central America after seizures and consumption en routeKey Transshipment Points

Gracias A Dios

NICARAGUA

Punta Burrica

137 MT

132 MT

132 MT 275 MT

329 MT

Figure 5. Honduras was the main destination of cocaine movement from South America and the primary transit country for subsequent movement from other Central American countries en route to the U.S.-Mexico border.

8

U.S. Arrival ZoneThe amount of cocaine seized on arrival in the United States increased by 7 percent in 2011, mostly because of increased seizures in California. An estimated 25.4 metric tons of cocaine was seized in the U.S. Arrival Zone, an increase from about 24 metric tons in 2010; of that total, about 10 metric tons of cocaine was seized in California in 2011, up from about 6 metric tons in 2010.

The amount of cocaine available for purchase in major cities in the United States remained steady between 2009 and 2011 but was less than amounts available before 2006, a peak year for cocaine seizures and availability. U.S. cocaine availability declined starting in mid-2007, resulting in higher cocaine prices, lower cocaine purity, and reduced demand. The decline from 2006 levels stemmed from multiple causes: the Mexican government’s anticartel efforts, significant seizures, high levels of violence among Mexican drug trafficking organizations, and diminished cocaine production in Colombia.

U.S. Arrival Zone Seizures, 2006—2011

Kilo

gram

s (K

g)

Mainland Vector

Puerto Rico/USVI Vector

Southwest Border Area

Northern Border Corridor

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

0

3,705

3,161

28,284

0

2,705

1,929

22,656

0

3,032

2,656

15,966

18

2,871

2,375

18,529

0

3,023

1,842

18,695

2

918

3,286

21,194

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

35.2 MT

27.3 MT

22 MT24 MT 24 MT

25.4 MT

Figure 6. During each of the past 3 years, about 25 metric tons of cocaine has been seized as it arrived in the United States.



9

Transoceanic FlowThe amount of cocaine departing South America to destinations outside of the Americas increased in 2011. Peru and Bolivia are the main cocaine source countries for cocaine consumption outside of the Americas. Elevated cocaine production in Peru and Bolivia correlates with increased consumption in Europe, Asia, and Africa.

Transatlantic MovementVenezuela is a major transshipment country for both U.S. and Europe-bound cocaine. Twenty-five per-cent of global cocaine flow departed from Venezuela in 2011; 15 percent of that cocaine headed toward the United States and 10 percent headed toward Europe. An estimated 25 percent of all transatlantic cocaine movement in 2011 departed Venezuela, primarily aboard fishing vessels or pleasure craft.

Ecuador has remained an important departure country for U.S.- and Europe-bound cocaine shipments. It accounted for the largest share of seizures of cocaine destined for Europe of any country—most of this cocaine was being shipped in commercial maritime containers. Notably, Ecuador’s Port of Guayaquil emerged in 2011 as a transshipment hub for cocaine loads destined for European markets.

Transpacific MovementAlthough the demand for cocaine in Australia is still relatively small compared with other global markets (consumption in Asia/Oceania accounts for less than 3 percent of the world’s total cocaine consumption),

2011 Global Cocaine Flow

Gulf of Mexico

Paci�c Ocean

Note: Estimates and global distribution are based on a combination of documented movement, consumption, and production estimates; relying primarily on consumption-based flow estimates for transoceanic markets. Amounts have been adjusted to compensate for rounding errors.

51–69%429–663 Metric Tons

546 Metric Tonsto the United States

23%222 Metric Tons

Directly to Europe

3%29 Metric Tons

to Europe via Africa5%48 Metric Tons

to Canada, Australia, Other

% Distribution Represents Con�rmed, Substantiated and High Con�dence Suspect (1p) Primary Movement

Percentages based on shipments documented departing South America

Figure 7. Global Cocaine Flow. An estimated 847 metric tons of export-quality cocaine departed South America to global markets in 2011.

10

it is growing. Australian officials are countering the growth in cocaine consumption by increasing border enforcement. As a result, seizures more than doubled from 2007 to 2011. Several high-profile, multihundred-kilogram seizures in recent years, along with an exorbitant price for cocaine ($250,000 a kilogram—the highest in the world), suggest a continued increase of trafficking to the island continent.

Cocaine Seizures and Prices in Australia

Price of Cocaine in Australia Versus Other Key Markets

Cocaine Seized in or Destined for Australia

2002–2007 Average Seizure 111 Kgs

2008–2011 Average Seizure 591 Kgs

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

Kilo

gram

s (k

g)

0

1,200

2,400

3,600

4,800

6,010

Num

ber

of C

ocai

ne U

sers

in T

hous

ands

1

690 824

280259 164

5,333

1,037

1,780

$8.5K

$80K

$80K

$45K$16.5K

$250K

$1.4K

$38K

Argentina Spain UnitedKingdom

UnitedStates AustraliaMexicoPeru Ghana

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

4-fold increase in annual cocaine seizures

1 The number of users is calculated by adding the number of hardcore and moderate users who were assumed to have used in the past month and recreational users who were assumed to have used in the past year, but not in the past month.

Figure 8. The high price of cocaine in Australia likely is a magnet for increased shipments. Increased seizures correlate with a growing user population in Australia.



11

Cocaine Losses WorldwideCocaine “losses” include amounts seized by interdiction forces and amounts observed or reported as potentially jettisoned and not recovered by traffickers or interdiction forces. Cocaine losses also can occur aboard a vessel or aircraft that is scuttled or destroyed during interdiction operations.

There were 420 metric tons of cocaine losses documented in 2011, continuing a downward trend from the 5-year high of 518 metric tons in 2009. Overall in 2011, the U.S. Transit Zone accounted for the largest decrease in the amount of documented cocaine lost, a 10-percent decrease, principally due to fewer seizures in the Pacific. Cocaine losses in South America (the Source Zone) decreased by 5 percent from 2010. While the amount of cocaine seized in the non-U.S. Transit and Arrival Zones decreased, the amount of cocaine seized in South America destined for non-U.S. markets increased over the previous year.

Losses from maritime conveyances accounted for approximately 53 percent of the amount of cocaine shipments disrupted worldwide.4 Cocaine disruption from submersibles increased more than disrup-tions from any other transport method, nearly triple the amount of 2010. Cocaine disrupted from fishing vessels and go-fasts decreased from 2010, although at 17 percent of all disruptions, go-fasts still accounted for most of the cocaine disrupted from maritime vessels. Containerized shipments accounted for 12 percent of disruptions.

Worldwide Cocaine Seized/Disrupted, 2007–2011

2007 2008 2009 2010

25

11

160

169

21

24

13

177

177

20

24

10

247

191

20

22

33

203

207

20

27

27

210

143

23

3435272943

474514 519

447420

2011

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Non-U.S. Arrival Zone

Internal U.S.

U.S. Arrival Zone

Non-U.S. Transit Zone

Transit Zone toward U.S. Markets

Source Zone

Met

ric

Tons

(M

T)

Note: Totals may not add up exactly due to rounding

Figure 9. The amount of cocaine seized and disrupted continued to decline in 2011.

12

5 Drugs that are jettisoned and not recovered or drugs that are believed to be destroyed or otherwise removed from the cocaine supply chain. In addition to cocaine seizures, disruptions are a component of cocaine “losses.”



13

PCN 31646

Produced for theO F F I C E O F N A T I O N A L D R U G C O N T R O L P O L I C Y

cocaine smuggling in 2011...2011 top ten cocaine consuming countries, ranked by prevalence estimated...

Documents