cocaine smuggling in 2006

Produced bythe Office ofNational DrugControl Policy

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PCN 8271

ONDCP-01-07 August 2007

Cocaine Smuggling

in

2006

Produced by the Office of National Drug Control Policy

Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Ocean

Pacific Ocean

ect to US

Cocaine Smuggling in 2006The counterdrug community estimates that between 530 and 710 metric tons of cocainedeparted South America toward the United States in 2006, similar to the range estimatedin 2005. The eastern Pacific and western Caribbean routes to Mexico and Central America remained the primary channels for cocaine movement from South America toward theUnited States, accounting for about 90 percent of the fl ow.

Production Consumption

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

Production/Consumption -Based Estimate

2006 Common Range

Movement-Based Estimate

2005 Common Range

Estimated 2006 Cocaine Flow to the United States

Higher Confidence Lower Confidence

460

530 710

1000

530 710

Metric Tons:

518 733

Figure 1. Cocaine Flow Estimate, 2006. The common range estimate, shown above, is calculated using four data sets: potential cocaine production, cocaine consumption estimates, documented cocaine losses, and cocaine movement data.

Figure 2. Cocaine Flow Distribution. Eastern Pacific and western Caribbean routes to Mexico and Central America account for about 90 percent of the cocaine flow toward the United States.

Distribution of Cocaine Flow to the United States

Dir Corridor

<1%

Mexico/Central America

Corridor 90%

Caribbean Corridor

10%

C o c a i n e S m u g g l i n g i n 2 0 0 6 1

Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Ocean

Pacific Ocean

JCB<1%

EPAC43%

EPAC-S23%

Departure Points The distribution between regions appeared to shift in 2006, with the eastern Pacifi c growing from 54 percent in 2005 to account for roughly 66 percent of trafficking while the western Caribbean’s share of trafficking declined from 38 percent in 2005 to 24 percent. Some of this apparent shift may have been caused by the diffi culty detecting traffickers in the western Caribbean who changed their smuggling techniques and shifted their departure points in the Caribbean to avoid interdiction.

Distribution of Cocaine Flow

RQVQ <1%

HISP 8%

Direct to US <1%

Central America <1%

ABC/NLA<1%

WCAR 24%

Primary Values — percentages based on shipments documented departing South America. Red border indicates area of decreased reporting. Green border indicates area of increased reporting.

ABC/NLA: Aruba/Bonaire/Curacao /Northern Lesser Antilles

EPAC: Eastern Pacific EPAC-S: Eastern Pacific-South HISP: Hispaniola JCB: Jamaica/Cuba/Bahamas RQVQ: Puerto Rico/US Virgin Islands WCAR: Western Caribbean

Eastern Pacific 66%

Figure 3. Percentages of Cocaine Flow Distribution Departing South America Toward the United States in 2006.


Galapagos South & West

Galapagos South

Galapagos North

Littoral

Changing Tactics Trafficking operations in the eastern Pacific during 2006 evolved to include four general routes—littoral, north of the Galapagos, south of the Galapagos, and deep south and far west of theGalapagos. The use of multiple at-sea transfers and increased use of decoy vessels and logisticssupply ships added more complexity and challenged interdiction forces. By the end of 2006,the littoral route emerged as the traffickers’ favorite. Unlike the larger go-fasts used on the highseas, some go-fasts using the littoral route had two to four smaller outboards and were beingconstructed with cocaine placed between the inner and outer hulls.These go-fasts made one-wayjourneys to their points of destination, where they were dismantled to retrieve the cocaine.

Galapagos Islands

Gulf of Mexico Atlantic Ocean

Pacific Ocean

Trafficking Operations in the Eastern Pacific

Figure 4. Eastern Pacifi c Traffi cking Routes.

Go-fast with three outboard motors


Modes and Methods Private aircraft movement in the Transit Zone was more pronounced than in the past, mostly because traffi ckers flew more cocaine from Venezuela to Hispaniola rather than relying on go-fasts from Colombia.

Figure 5. Aircraft Typically Depart Venezuela to Deliver Cocaine to Hispaniola. Using clandestine air strips in Haiti and the Dominican Republic, the aircraft offl oad to awaiting personnel and take off within a short period of time. Alternatively, some aircraft drop their bales over water to awaiting pick-up vessels.

Coca Cultivation and Cocaine Production In 2006, we observed more coca cultivation in the Andean region than in 2005. Colombia accounted for about 70 percent of all coca cultivation, followed by Peru and Bolivia with 17 and 12 percent, respectively.The increase in the Colombian coca crop, partly due to expanded survey areas, resulted in a 6-percent increase in our estimate of the potential production of Andean cocaine in 2006. Colombia represented an increasing portion of the Andean Cocaine Production estimate with about 62 percent, followed by Peru with 25 percent and Bolivia with 12 percent. Colombia’s coca farmers and traffi ckers continued to adjust to aerial eradication by shifting cultivation to smaller plots outside sprayed areas and to national parks—where spraying is prohibited—or by replanting and reconstituting sprayed fi elds. Peru also showed an increase in cultivation; however, new coca plants there had not reached maturity and did not produce enough useable leaf to impact overall cocaine production.


Andean Coca Growing Regions

Boundary representations are not necessarily authoritative.

Approximate Scale

0 250 km

0 250 500 mi

Major 2006 Coca Regions

(hectares per square km)

Surveyed, no cultivation 0.0 – 1.0 1.1 – 4.0 4.1 – 8.0 More than 8.0 2006 Data unavailable

Cultivation area names in Green

Panama

Santa Maria

Santander

San Lucas

Antioquia

Norte de Santander

Arauca

Vichada

Cauca Narino West

Caqueta/ Putumayo

Amazonas

Guainia

Rio Patia Vaupes

Meta/Guaviare

Macarena

Caldas/Antioquia South

Choco

Apurimac

Cuzco

Upper Huallaga

Monzon

Apolo

Caranavi Yungas

Vandiola

Chapare

La Paz

Lima

BogotáColombia

Paraguay

Ecuador

Venezuela

Argentina

Peru

Chile

Brazil

Guyana

Bolivia

Figure 6. Andean Coca Cultivation.


Cocaine Seizures and Disruptions In 2006, 492 metric tons of cocaine were interdicted worldwide, the second highest total on record. Although total cocaine interdictions were down from the record 552 metric tons taken in 2005, losses were still greater than the 440 metric tons seized and disrupted in 2004.Cocaine seizures decreased in the Source and Transit Zones while they increased slightly in the US Arrival Zone, and remained stable in the Non-US Arrival Zone. Despite the overall decrease in interdictions, instances of large, multi-ton seizures continued to be high in 2006.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Met

ric

Ton

s

Non-US Arrival Zone 32 38 42 63 63

Transit Zone to Non-US Markets 9 38 16 35 43

Transit Zone to US Markets 144 156 197 235 201 Source Zone 112 114 131 160 122

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

492

440

405

347

552 Overall 11% Decrease

Internal US Federal 16 24 22 30 30

US Arrival Zone 34 35 32 29 33

Worldwide Cocaine Interdiction, 2002–06

14% Decrease Transit Zone to United States

Figure 7. Worldwide Cocaine Seizures/Losses.

Source Zone Within South America, some reports indicated the use of aircraft expanded slightly in 2006,even though highway transport remained the main cocaine shipment method.The west coast was the main departure area from Colombia for maritime trafficking, with about two thirds of recorded cocaine movements leaving there in 2006, compared to about half in 2005. Th e use of containers for commercial movement of cocaine appeared to be growing, with Venezuelan ports gaining preference over Colombian ports among traffi ckers.


y

Non-US Markets Over 60 percent of recorded cocaine movement toward non-US markets headed directly for Europe in 2006, mostly for entry points in Portugal and Spain. Another 30 percent headed to Africa—most likely ultimately destined for Europe, while the remaining 10 percent was distributed to other global destinations.

US Arrival Zone Personal vehicles were the most common conveyance used to smuggle cocaine into theUnited States in 2006, arriving primarily across the US-Mexico border. Tractor-trailerswere also used, though to a much lesser extent. South Texas was the primary entry regionfor cocaine shipments, particularly for loads concealed in tractor-trailers. California portsof entry showed a large increase in cocaine seizures over the past year, suggesting moresmuggling across the border in that region than in previous years. Less than 17 percentof the cocaine seized in the US Arrival Zone in 2006 was seized from commercial and noncommercial maritime vessels. Much smaller amounts of cocaine entered by othermethods, such as commercial air and mail.

Southwest Border Area Port of Entry Cocaine Seizure Incidents

El Paso

Presid

io

Calexico

MEXICO

Fabens

San Luis

Douglas

Nogales

Colum

bus

Hidalg

o

Del Rio

Ota

San Ysid

ro

Eagle Pass

Roma

Brownsv

illeLare

do

Progre

so

Andrade

Pharr

Pacific Ocean

Gulf of Mexico

California 27%

Arizona 20%

New Mexico >1%

West Texas 10%

South Texas 42%

Figure 8. Southwest Border Area Port-of-entry Incidents with Cocaine Seizures of At Least 500 Grams during 2006.


ONDCP-01-07August 2007

CocaineSmuggling

in

2006Produced by the Office of... .... . -.. --- -. .---. -. -.. .. . --..--... .... . -.. --- -. .---. -. -.. .. . --..--... .... . -.. --- -. .---. -. -.. .. . --..-- -.-. --- -.-. .-.. -. . National DrugControl Policy

PCN 8271

cocaine smuggling in 2006

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