co 2 emission scenarios in russia to 2050 – energy and economy dimensions
DESCRIPTION
CO 2 emission scenarios in Russia to 2050 – energy and economy dimensions. Fedor Veselov, Alexei Makarov, Vladimir Malakhov. Moscow Carnegie Center. Round Table “Climate policy after Durban: prospects for the Russian economy”. Moscow , January 2012. Economy growth and emission scenarios. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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CO2 emission scenarios in Russia to 2050 – energy and economy dimensions
Moscow, January 2012
Fedor Veselov, Alexei Makarov, Vladimir Malakhov
Moscow Carnegie Center. Round Table “Climate policy after Durban: prospects for the Russian economy”
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LOGOEconomy growth and emission scenarios
Russian Energy Strategy to 2030 (ES-2030) assume the Baseline (Innovative) scenario with GDP growth 3.2 times by 2030 and 6.8 times by 2050. Under the lower world fuel prices’ trends and more intensive national energy efficiency and emission policy in the Environmental scenario GDP will grow up in 2.8 times by 2030 and 5.7 times by 2050. Macroeconomic scenarios will form two different GHG emission trends.
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GDP (% to 1990)
GHG emissions (% to 1990)
AGR (10-30) = 4.8%
AGR (10-30) = 4.4%
AGR (10-30) = 1.5%AGR (30-50) = 0.3%
AGR (10-30) = 0.4%AGR (30-50) = -0.3%
Energy Research Institute RAS
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LOGOEnergy demand and emission scenarios
Energy efficiency is expected to be the first important factor affecting the future GHG emission trends. Cumulative energy efficiency growth will result to the decrease of energy intensity (3.4-4.2 times by 2050) as well as the electricity intensity (2.5-2.7 times by 2050).
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TPEC (% to 1990)
Electricity (% to 1990)
GHG emission (% to 1990)
0102030405060708090
100110120130140
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
0102030405060708090100110120130140
GDP electricity intensity (% to 2005)
GDP energy intensity (% to 2005)
Energy Research Institute RAS
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LOGOPrimary energy consumption, mln. toe
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gas liquid fuels solid fuels
hydro nuclear other renewables
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Renewable for electricity Biomass for electricity
Biomass for boilers Solar for heat
Heat pumps Biomass and waste
Changes in the TPEC structure to the non-carbon energy resources (nuclear and renewables) will be the second factor affecting GHG emission trends.The share of natural gas in TPEC will fall from 52% to 47-49% in 2030; liquid fuel – from 16.3 to 14.5-16%. The total share of non-carbon resources will grow from 13.8 to 18-21%. Renewables (excl. large hydro) will form 4.6-4.7% of total energy consumption in 2030 and 9-11% in 2050. Biomass will remain a dominant renewable resource and form ¾ of total “green” energy consumption in 2030 and still 60% in 2050.
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Consumption of renewables, MtoeTotal primary energy consumption, Mtoe
Energy Research Institute RAS
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LOGOThe role of power sector in energy balance
Electricity and heat supply will increase their impact on the domestic energy demand the share of power plants and boiler houses will increase from 54% of TPEC in 2005 to 57% in 2050 within the environmental scenario and remain nearly the same within the innovation scenario. The sector will remain the main area of inter-fuel (resources) competition and may ensure the reduction of gas share in the energy demand for electricity and heat from 49.8% to 42-43% in 2030 and 31-33% in 2050.
Energy Research Institute RAS
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Primary energy consumption In the power sector, Mtoe
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pow er plants heating boilers industrial needstransport raw needs domestic households
Total primary energy consumption by sectors of economy, Mtoe
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Electricity production structure
Energy mix in the power sector may be diversified by the intensive growth of non-carbon (hydro, nuclear and renewable) power plants. Their share will grow from 34% to 39-45% in 2030 and 50-55% in 2050. Nuclear will rapidly increase their share from 16% to 26-29 in 2030 and 35-37 in 2050. Renewables will remain the marginal resources for generation. RES generation (mainly at biomass and wind plants) will rise 2-3 times per decade, but will not exceed 3% in 2020 and 7-8% in 2050.
Total electricity generation, TWhGeneration of RES plants, TWh
Energy Research Institute RAS
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Energy-related greenhouse gas emissions, Mt CO2
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Energy Research Institute RAS
GHG emissions trends: an important consequence but not a main target of Energy Strategy
Annual energy-related GHG emission in the Innovation scenario will nearly reach 1990 level by 2030 and by 2050 will stabilize at 170 Mt (+6%) higher.
Emissions in the Environmental scenario by 2030 will remain at 540 Mt lower (-20%) 1990 level and 660 Mt lower (-25%) by 2050.After 2030 volumes of emissions will start to decrease
Implementation of the Environmental; scenario will require strong GHG emission regulation policy. GHG regulation measures must be incorporated into the economy modernization toolbox
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LOGOPower sector economics will form the long-term trends of CO2 value. Impact of carbon abatement costs
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Gas CHP Nuclear CCGT Biomass Windonshore
CCGTwith CCS
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Least-cost CO2 abatement options for the Russian power sector
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Carbon abatement costs, S/t CO2
Notes:Wind – grid connection/system integration costs are not includedCCS – CO2 transportation and sequestration costs are not included
Energy Research Institute RAS
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Project description: • substitution of gas-fired steam turbine unit (38% efficiency) by a CCGT unit (55% efficiency)• CCGT capital costs 1200 $/kW• Gas price at $150/1000 cm• Electricity price at $60/MWh• “Carbon” investments/revenues are estimated for total 10 year ERU amount
Required carbon price to ensure IRR
IRR=10% IRR=15%
Case 1 All revenues from ERU are obtained before the project commissioning as “carbon” investments to decrease project capital costs
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Case 2 All revenues from ERU are obtained after the project commissioning 61 91
Case 3 Revenues from ERU are shared between before and after project commissioning phases (“carbon” investments cover 25% of capital costs).
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Energy Research Institute RAS
Capital costs
Revenues from electricity market
“Carbon” revenues from ERU selling
“Carbon” investments
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Fuel and O&M costs
Power sector economics will form the long-term trends of CO2 value. Impact of JI-type projects
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Hydro+RES Nuclear CHP CPP gas CPP coal
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BAU
Basecase
price(2030)=25$/t CO2
price(2030)=50$/t CO2
price(2030)=75$/t CO2
price (2030)=100$/t CO2
Generating capacity structure
СО2 emission from power plants, Mt
y = -0.729x - 24.875
R 2 = 0.963
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Decrease of CO2 emission in resp. of Basecase [Mt CO2]
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R 2 = 0.949
y = -0.051x - 1.325
R 2 = 0.949
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DEcrease of CO2 emission in resp. to Basecase [Mt CO2]
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+7 $ bln per 10 Mt СО2
+0.4-0,5 US cent/kWh per 10 Mt СО2
AGR (2015-20)
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Decrease of CO2 emission in resp. of Basecase
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Effect of carbon costs on the power sector emissions and macroeconomic indicators
Energy Research Institute RAS
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Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences (ERI RAS)www.eriras.ru
Acad. Alexei Makarov, Director [email protected]
Dr. Fedor Veselov, Head of the Electric Power Sector Development & Reform [email protected], [email protected]
Dr. Vladimir Malakhov, Head of the Energy Demand, Energy Efficiency and Scientific and Technological Progress [email protected]