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Sustainable Lifestyles 2050 D4.1 Future Scenarios for New European Social Models with Visualisations 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 Scenarios for Sustainable Lifestyles 2050: From Global Champions to Local Loops

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Page 1: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sus

tain

able

Lif

esty

les

2050

D4.

1 Fu

ture

Sce

nario

s fo

r N

ew E

urop

ean

Soc

ial M

odel

s w

ith V

isua

lisat

ions

2015

2020

2030

2

04

0

2

05

0

Scen

ario

s fo

r

Sust

aina

ble

Life

styl

es

2050

: Fr

om G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps

Page 2: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

2 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Abo

ut S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Rep

ort P

rinci

pal A

utho

rs: J

uha

Lepp

änen

(Dem

os H

elsi

nki),

Ale

ksi N

euvo

nen

(Dem

os H

elsi

nki),

Mar

ia R

itola

(Dem

os H

elsi

nki),

Inka

Aho

la (D

emos

Hel

sink

i),

Sin

i Hirv

onen

(Dem

os H

elsi

nki),

Mik

a H

yöty

läin

en (D

emos

Hel

sink

i), T

uuli

Kas

kine

n (D

emos

Hel

sink

i), T

omm

i Kau

ppin

en (D

emos

Hel

sink

i), O

uti K

uitt

inen

(D

emos

Hel

sink

i), K

aisa

Kär

ki (D

emos

Hel

sink

i), M

icha

el L

ette

nmei

er (D

emos

H

elsi

nki/D

-mat

), R

oope

Mok

ka (D

emos

Hel

sink

i)

With

inpu

ts fr

om th

e pr

ojec

t con

sort

ium

and

pro

ject

adv

isor

s

Rep

ort V

isua

lisat

ion:

Fra

ncoi

s Je

gou

(Str

ateg

ic D

esig

n S

cena

rios

/ Pol

itec-

nico

di M

ilano

), A

dèle

Sey

rig (S

trat

egic

Des

ign

Sce

nario

s), M

arta

Cor

ubol

o (P

olite

cnic

o di

Mila

no),

Ann

a M

eron

i (P

olite

cnic

o di

Mila

no),

Chr

isto

phe

Gou

ache

(Str

ateg

ic D

esig

n S

cena

rios)

Rep

ort L

ayou

t: K

irmo

Kiv

elä

(Dem

os H

elsi

nki)

Pro

ject

Coo

rdin

ator

: U

NEP

/Wup

pert

al In

stitu

te C

olla

bora

ting

Cen

tre

on S

usta

inab

le C

onsu

mpt

ion

and

Pro

duct

ion

(CS

CP

) H

agen

auer

Str

aße

30. 4

2107

Wup

pert

al. G

erm

any

Tel +

49

. 202

. 45

95

8 -

17

Fax

+ 49

. 20

2 . 4

5 95

8 -

30

ww

w.s

cp-c

entr

e.or

g

Che

ryl H

icks

, Pro

ject

Dire

ctor

: che

ryl.h

icks

@sc

p-ce

ntre

.org

N

ora

Brü

ggem

ann,

Pro

ject

Man

ager

: nor

a.br

uegg

eman

n@sc

p-ce

ntre

.org

Pro

ject

Con

sort

ium

: A

shok

a, B

elgi

um a

nd F

ranc

e D

emos

Hel

sink

i (D

emos

), Fi

nlan

d Ec

oins

titut

Bar

celo

na (E

CO

I), S

pain

En

ergy

rese

arch

Cen

tre

of th

e N

ethe

rland

s (E

CN

) Eu

roH

ealth

Net

P

olite

cnic

o di

Mila

no (P

olim

i), It

aly

Reg

iona

l Env

ironm

enta

l Cen

ter f

or C

EE c

ount

ries

(REC

), H

unga

ry

The

Inte

rnat

iona

l Ins

titut

e fo

r Ind

ustr

ial E

nviro

nmen

tal E

cono

mic

s at

Lun

d U

nive

rsity

(ULU

ND

), S

wed

en

The

Nor

ther

n A

llian

ce fo

r Sus

tain

abili

ty (A

NP

ED),

Bel

gium

E

C D

esk

Offi

cer:

P

erla

Sro

ur-G

ando

n, D

omen

ico

Ros

sett

i di V

alda

lber

o

Dur

atio

n: 1

Jan

uary

201

1 to

31

Dec

embe

r 201

2

Fund

ing

sche

me:

Eur

opea

n C

omm

issi

on’s

Sev

enth

Fra

mew

ork

Pro

gram

me

(Coo

rdin

atio

n an

d S

uppo

rt A

ctio

n):

Soc

io-e

cono

mic

Sci

ence

s an

d H

uman

ities

Bud

get:

EU c

ontr

ibut

ion

1,42

3,08

2 �

Web

site

: ww

w.s

usta

inab

le-l

ifest

yles

.eu

Onl

ine

com

mun

ity: w

ww

.sus

tain

able

-life

styl

es.e

u/co

mm

unity

Sus

tain

able

Lif

esty

les

2050

Pro

ject

Coo

rdin

ator

Fund

ing

Sch

eme

Pro

ject

Con

sort

ium

Con

tent

sW

hat i

s S

PR

EA

D S

usta

inab

le L

ifest

yles

205

0 3

U

nsus

tain

able

life

styl

e im

pact

s to

be

over

com

e

by

205

0: K

ey fi

ndin

gs o

f the

pro

ject

’s

ba

selin

e re

sear

ch

4

Our

sce

nario

s on

sus

tain

able

life

styl

es

6

The

back

cast

ing

met

hod

7

The

sust

aina

ble

lifes

tyle

= 8

000

kg p

er a

nnum

8

Fo

ur s

cena

rios,

two

criti

cal u

ncer

tain

ties

10

H

ow d

id w

e ge

t her

e?

12

Four

sce

nario

s to

sus

tain

able

life

styl

es 2

012–

2050

Sin

gula

r Sup

er C

ham

pion

s 15

Gov

erni

ng th

e C

omm

ons

25

Lo

cal L

oops

35

Empa

thet

ic C

omm

uniti

es

45

Com

parin

g fo

ur a

ltern

ativ

e sc

enar

ios

on

sus

tain

able

life

styl

es

M

atrix

on

lifes

tyle

diff

eren

ces

in

th

e fo

ur s

cena

rios

56

H

ow d

id th

e S

PR

EAD

sce

nario

s re

ach

lifes

tyle

s of

800

0 kg

mat

eria

l foo

tprin

t?

58

App

endi

x A

: SP

REA

D S

usta

inab

le L

ifest

yles

20

50 D

elph

i sur

vey

Que

stio

nnai

res

60

App

endi

x B

: SP

REA

D S

usta

inab

le L

ifest

yles

20

50 C

ount

ing

Bac

kwar

ds W

orks

hop

62

R

efer

ence

s 63

Page 3: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 3

Wha

t is

SPR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

SP

RE

AD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

is a

Eur

o-pe

an s

ocia

l pla

tfor

m p

roje

ct r

unni

ng fr

om J

anu-

ary

2011

to D

ecem

ber

2012

. Diff

eren

t soc

ieta

l st

akeh

olde

rs –

from

bus

ines

s, r

esea

rch,

pol

icy

and

civi

l soc

iety

– h

ave

been

invi

ted

to p

artic

i-pa

te in

the

deve

lopm

ent o

f a v

isio

n fo

r su

stai

n-

able

life

styl

es in

205

0. T

his

proc

ess

will

res

ult i

n a

road

map

for

stra

tegi

c ac

tion

that

will

iden

tify

oppo

rtun

ity s

pace

s fo

r po

licy,

bus

ines

s, r

e-se

arch

and

civ

il so

ciet

y to

take

act

ion

to e

nabl

e m

ore

sust

aina

ble

lifes

tyle

s ac

ross

Eur

ope.

How

to s

prea

d su

stai

nabl

e lif

esty

les?

B

ased

on

Gee

ls 2

002

Land

scap

e le

vel

Reg

ime

leve

l

Nic

he le

vel

Pro

mis

ing

pr

actic

eP

rom

isin

g

prac

tice

Soc

ieta

l val

ues,

ov

eral

l par

adig

ms,

m

egat

rend

s

Em

bedd

ing

Mul

tipl

ying

Up

scal

ing

Mar

kets

, S

cien

ce,

Pol

icie

sM

arke

ts,

Sci

ence

, P

olic

ies

Mar

kets

, S

cien

ce,

Pol

icie

s

How

doe

s it w

ork?

Com

men

ts

Com

men

ts

Consum

ing

Consum

ing

• col

lect

ive

kitc

hens

ope

n to

food

-gro

up m

embe

rs a

re d

i! us

ed a

ll ar

ound

the

city

. Foo

d fa

cilit

ies a

re in

fact

serv

ices

that

allo

w p

eopl

e to

save

tim

e in

pre

parin

g fo

od w

hile

incr

easin

g th

e qu

ality

of f

ood

prep

ared

;• e

very

food

faci

lity

gath

ers a

food

gro

up th

at a

gree

s on

a w

eekl

y fo

od

sche

me:

eac

h m

embe

r is i

n ch

arge

of p

repa

ring

a sp

eci"

c co

urse

of a

m

eal,

and

cook

s it f

or a

ll th

e m

embe

rs. I

n re

turn

he/

she

rece

ives

the

port

ions

of t

he o

ther

cou

rses

pre

pare

d by

the

othe

r mem

bers

.

“...to

rtill

as a

re th

e on

ly fo

od I’

m re

ally

qui

te g

ood

at a

nd,

luck

ily, t

hey

are

quite

ver

satil

e. To

day

I hav

e pr

epar

ed st

ewed

ve

geta

bles

as !

llin

g an

d …

voilà

.. a

perf

ect d

ish!

.. Ph

ilip

prep

ared

the

sala

d, a

nd M

aria

the

dess

ert.

A fu

ll di

nner

is !

nally

re

ady

for m

e an

d m

y lit

tle Jo

dy: I

just

nee

d to

pic

k it

up fr

om th

e fo

od fa

cilit

y an

d la

y th

e ta

ble.”

Edua

rdo,

41,

des

igne

r, si

ngle

par

ent w

ith a

dau

ghte

r

FOO

D F

ACIL

ITY

How

doe

s it w

ork?

• the

mix

of f

ood

prod

uctio

n ha

s cha

nged

: dom

estic

pro

duct

ion,

co

ndom

iniu

m u

rban

farm

ing

area

s, ne

ighb

orho

od, p

eri-u

rban

and

na

tiona

l pro

duct

ion

and

som

e in

tern

atio

nal i

mpo

rtat

ion

• it i

s cal

led

urba

n fo

od d

istric

t pla

nnin

g. T

he c

ity is

now

div

ided

into

fo

od d

istric

ts th

at m

ust b

e as

self-

su#

cien

t as p

ossib

le. E

ach

food

di

stric

t rel

ies f

or a

cer

tain

quo

ta o

n se

lf pr

oduc

tion

of fo

od a

nd fo

r th

e re

st o

n lo

cal f

arm

s and

pro

duce

rs.

• urb

an n

eigh

borh

oods

are

twin

ned

with

per

i-urb

an fa

rms a

nd fo

od-

hubs

so th

at fo

od p

rodu

ctio

n an

d co

nsum

ptio

n ar

e re

late

d, m

utua

l co

mm

itmen

t and

mut

ual r

espo

nsib

ility

.• a

wel

l con

nect

ed fo

od su

pply

cha

in is

nec

essa

ry, w

hich

can

hel

p co

nsum

ers g

et th

e cl

oses

t res

ourc

es a

nd sw

itch

with

a c

erta

in

$ exi

bilit

y;

“…w

e ha

ve th

e ch

ance

to li

ve in

a ci

ty w

here

the

mun

icip

ality

ha

s dec

ided

to in

trod

uce

the

food

dis

tric

t pla

nnin

g in

itiat

ive.

O

ur fo

od m

ix m

ust b

e at

leas

t nea

rly 5

0% lo

cally

pro

duce

d an

d 10

% se

lf-pr

oduc

ed a

mon

g ne

ighb

ours

: gar

lic is

gro

win

g on

the

balc

ony,

cucu

mbe

rs d

owns

tairs

, tom

atoe

s com

e fr

om

neig

hbou

rs’ v

eget

able

gar

dens

, com

mut

ers b

ring

fres

h da

iry

prod

ucts

from

subu

rban

are

as in

to d

ownt

own.

I stil

l go

to lo

cal

supe

rmar

kets

, onc

e in

a w

hile

I may

buy

som

e im

port

ed fo

od…

Mar

tha,

36,

mot

her o

f a 3

child

ren

fam

ily

URB

AN

FO

OD

D

ISTR

ICT

PLA

NN

ING

Com

men

ts

Com

men

ts

Living

Living

How

doe

s it w

ork?

• sus

tain

able

act

ive

educ

atio

n go

es th

roug

h th

e no

rmal

edu

catio

n ci

rcle

, act

ivity

bas

ed le

arni

ng p

roje

cts h

ave

beco

me

part

of t

he

form

al e

duca

tion

met

hod;

• •fa

rmin

g cl

asse

s and

oth

er b

asic

kno

wle

dge

arou

nd su

stai

nabl

e fo

od

are

man

dato

ry a

t eve

ry e

duca

tion

leve

l to

prep

are

awar

e ci

tizen

s abl

e to

take

par

t act

ivel

y in

co-

prod

uctio

n of

the

food

they

will

eat

; • t

he c

lass

room

is n

o lo

nger

the

only

pla

ce to

lear

n. S

choo

l cam

puse

s ar

e de

velo

ped

with

farm

ing,

food

tran

sfor

mat

ion

and

prep

arat

ion

faci

litie

s;• s

choo

l can

teen

s are

supp

lied

with

veg

etab

les c

ultiv

ated

in th

e ga

rden

.

Ivan

, 15-

year

-old

, mid

dle

scho

ol st

uden

t“…

In o

ur sc

hool

ther

e is

a v

eget

able

gar

den

whe

re I’

ve

been

att

endi

ng fa

rmin

g cl

ass s

ince

prim

ary

scho

ol, a

nd I’

ve

alw

ays d

one

ver

y w

ell.

I kno

w lo

ts o

f loc

al cr

ops a

nd fa

rmin

g kn

owle

dge.

The

teac

hers

teac

h us

how

to p

lant

and

har

vest

, we

have

regu

lar f

arm

ing

wor

k in

the

vege

tabl

e ga

rden

, and

our

ge

nera

tion

feel

s the

refo

re p

erfe

ctly

com

fort

able

with

taki

ng

part

in u

rban

farm

ing

to p

rodu

ce o

n th

e sp

ot p

art o

f the

frui

ts

and

vegg

ies w

e co

nsum

e...”

ACTI

VE F

ARM

ING

CLA

SSES

How

doe

s it w

ork?

• job

s are

des

igne

d as

far a

s pos

sible

to a

llow

rem

ote

wor

king

and

re

duce

com

mut

ing

in c

ities

;• n

eigh

bour

hood

s are

equ

ippe

d w

ith d

i! er

ent t

ypes

of d

istan

t w

orki

ng fa

cilit

ies;

• soc

ializ

atio

n is

a m

ix o

f loc

al a

nd re

mot

e co

nnec

tions

with

dist

ant

wor

king

par

tner

s and

nei

ghbo

urs e

mpl

oyed

by

di! e

rent

com

pani

es;

• whe

re y

ou w

ork

is m

ore

and

mor

e pe

rcei

ved

as c

ompl

etel

y de

tach

ed

from

who

you

wor

k fo

r;• p

eopl

e en

joy

chan

ging

soci

al/p

hysic

al e

nviro

nmen

ts e

spec

ially

for

borin

g ta

sks.

“...w

here

am

I goi

ng to

wor

k to

day?

It’s

a qu

estio

n I a

sk m

ysel

f ne

arly

eve

ry m

orni

ng: w

e ha

ve p

lent

y of

co-w

orki

ng o

ptio

ns a

t a

wal

king

dis

tanc

e in

the

area

. I u

sed

to g

o to

som

e of

the

wor

k-ca

fés w

hen

I sta

rted

my

! rst

job:

a m

essy

env

ironm

ent,

lots

of

peop

le to

mee

t! N

ow I p

refe

r to

cycl

e to

l the

par

k to

chan

ge

atm

osph

ere

or st

ay o

n th

e ! r

st "

oor o

f the

cond

omin

ium

whe

re

my

old

mum

live

s 2 b

lock

s aw

ay...”

Wan

g Yo

ng, 2

4, a

gent

in a

call

cent

er

REM

OTE

CO

-WO

RKIN

G S

PACE

S

How

doe

s it w

ork?

Com

men

ts

Com

men

ts

Society

Society

How

doe

s it w

ork?

• goi

ng to

pub

lic/p

rivat

e ho

spita

l is g

ettin

g m

ore

and

mor

e ex

pens

ive

and

also

car

ries t

he ri

sk o

f con

trac

ting

dise

ases

whe

n st

ayin

g in

ho

spita

l;• f

or n

on-e

mer

genc

ies,

hom

e ho

spita

l is t

he n

orm

: sta

ying

at h

ome

and

supp

orte

d by

a se

ries o

f rem

ote

heal

th m

easu

re d

evic

es, r

ente

d se

lf-m

edic

atio

n ap

plia

nces

and

nei

ghbo

rhoo

d so

cial

car

e ne

twor

ks;

• hea

lth c

are

prov

ider

s pro

vide

ong

oing

med

ical

supp

ort a

t hom

e an

d re

mot

e tr

eatm

ent w

ith a

ppro

pria

te te

chno

logy

;• ‘

eHea

lth’ h

elps

to in

crea

se p

ublic

med

ical

kno

wle

dge

and

part

icip

atio

n in

trea

tmen

t also

redu

cing

hea

lth c

osts

;• e

spec

ially

chr

onic

pat

ient

s and

eld

erly

peo

ple

can

stay

at h

ome

for

long

er.

“...g

oing

to h

ospi

tal n

owad

ays m

ostly

mea

ns st

ayin

g at

hom

e!

But a

t hom

e I c

an m

eet t

he d

octo

r on

line

and

get t

he su

ppor

t of

the

neig

hbor

hood

soci

al ca

re n

etw

ork.

. I ca

n be

supp

orte

d al

so

by a

serie

s of r

emot

e he

alth

mea

sure

dev

ices

, sel

f-med

icat

ion

appl

ianc

es te

mpo

raril

y re

nted

from

the

loca

l hea

lth ca

re ce

nter

, an

d ge

t adv

ice

from

form

er p

atie

nts f

rom

the

neig

hbor

hood

...”

Gia

nna,

68-

year

-old

, sub

urba

n in

habi

tant

, ret

ired

HO

ME

HO

SPIT

AL

• hug

e co

sts i

nduc

ed b

y ba

d su

stai

nabl

e m

anag

emen

t and

ca

tast

roph

e re

late

d in

crea

ses i

nduc

e pe

ople

to p

ay m

ore

and

mor

e at

tent

ion

to w

hat i

s don

e w

ith th

eir m

oney

;• a

fter m

any

! nan

cial

cris

es d

ue to

lack

of i

nves

tmen

t reg

ulat

ions

, tr

ansp

aren

cy is

the

norm

that

also

ben

e! ts

sust

aina

ble

proj

ects

;• s

usta

inab

le re

spon

sibili

ty, e

thic

al w

ealth

and

fair

bank

ing

crite

ria

is th

e no

rm o

n th

e ! n

anci

al m

arke

t; in

vest

men

ts a

re m

ade

only

for

sust

aina

ble

prop

osal

s.

“…ta

xes o

n pe

rson

al in

com

e ro

se li

ke m

ad to

cove

r dro

ught

s he

re a

nd ts

unam

is th

ere

and

cata

stro

phes

aft

er si

lly

urba

niza

tion

proj

ects

in m

ega-

citie

s: no

w I p

refe

r to

earn

less

, w

ith g

reen

and

fair

inve

stm

ents

but

I wan

t to

know

wha

t my

mon

ey is

use

d fo

r and

I wan

t to

be a

ble

to ju

dge

mys

elf i

f the

pr

ojec

ts !

nanc

ed w

ill b

e go

od o

r not

for t

he fu

ture

of m

y ki

ds…

Andr

ea, 3

7-ye

ar-o

ld, f

athe

r of t

he 3

child

ren

fam

ily

CLEA

N M

ON

EY

How

doe

s it w

ork?

Com

men

ts

Com

men

ts

Mov

ing

Mov

ing

How

doe

s it w

ork?

• urb

an p

lann

ing

tow

ards

less

car

acc

essib

le n

eigh

borh

oods

, mix

ed

livin

g an

d co

mm

erci

al z

ones

ena

blin

g m

ore

wal

king

and

cyc

ling;

• dev

elop

men

t of r

entin

g sc

hem

es fo

r di!

eren

t siz

ed tr

olle

ys fo

r th

e tr

ansp

orta

tion

of g

oods

by

pede

stria

ns, f

rom

sim

ple

wee

kly

shop

ping

to se

cond

han

d fu

rnitu

re e

xcha

nge

or m

ovin

g ho

me

at

wal

king

dist

ance

;• p

arki

ng st

atio

ns, w

here

trol

leys

can

be

rent

ed fo

r tra

nspo

rt a

nd

retu

rned

, are

ava

ilabl

e in

all

supe

rblo

cks i

n th

e ci

ty.

“…no

rmal

ly g

et o

ur w

eekl

y ve

ggie

box

del

iver

ed to

our

hom

e,

I jus

t tak

e a

little

trol

ley

from

the

corn

er st

atio

n an

d ta

ke it

ba

ck to

the

stat

ion

just

bel

ow th

e ho

use;

but

toda

y, g

iven

all

the

shop

ping

for t

he p

arty

, we

need

at l

east

a ca

rgo-

trol

ley,

the

sam

e as

we

used

to m

ove

gran

dma

from

her

form

er !

at to

the

room

nea

r whe

re w

e liv

e no

w…

Tanj

a, 2

9, si

ngle

mot

her o

f tw

o ch

ildre

n

URB

AN

MO

BILI

TY O

F G

OO

DS

• den

si" c

atio

n of

citi

es a

nd n

ew u

rban

izat

ion

mod

els l

imit

meg

a ci

ties

and

urba

n sp

raw

l;• p

rom

otio

n of

med

ium

size

den

se u

rban

env

ironm

ents

with

den

se

publ

ic tr

ansp

ort s

yste

ms i

nfra

stru

ctur

e in

side

the

city

and

hig

h-sp

eed

trai

n co

nnec

tions

bet

wee

n ci

ties;

• urb

an p

lann

ing

stan

dard

s bas

ed o

n su

cces

sion

of h

igh

dens

ity

lodg

ing

and

zero

den

sity

gree

n/le

isure

are

as;

• new

arc

hite

ctur

e m

ovem

ents

follo

win

g id

eas l

ike ‘

dow

n to

wn

in th

e fo

rest

’ or ‘

the

high

-rise

/urb

an a

gric

ultu

re m

ix’...

• cha

ngin

g th

e re

latio

nshi

p be

twee

n pa

rks a

nd g

reen

are

as w

ithin

ur

ban

plan

ning

as a

pat

tern

mad

e of

hig

h-ris

e bl

ocks

and

fore

sts

bloc

ks.

“…I a

m li

ving

in a

hig

h-ris

e vi

llage

in th

e fo

rest

: it l

ooks

a b

it lik

e yo

u’ve

take

n so

me

bloc

ks o

f Man

hatt

an a

nd se

ttle

d th

em d

eep

in th

e fo

rest

in C

ornw

all.

At th

e be

ginn

ing

I did

into

bel

ieve

that

th

is ‘z

ero

dens

ity’ b

reat

hing

zone

s pla

nnin

g w

ould

be

resp

ecte

d.

Now

I hav

e th

e o"

er o

f a re

al ci

ty in

term

s of w

ork

oppo

rtun

ities

an

d cu

ltura

l life

at a

wal

king

dis

tanc

e an

d su

rrou

nded

by

real

w

oods

or w

heat

# el

ds. A

nd I t

ake

the

spee

d tr

ain

if re

ally

I hav

e to

go

to th

e ne

xt h

igh-

rise

villa

ge...”

Mis

aku,

31,

phy

sici

an

HIG

H-R

ISE

VILL

AGES

How

doe

s it w

ork?

Com

men

ts

Com

men

ts

Society

Society

How

doe

s it w

ork?

• goi

ng to

pub

lic/p

rivat

e ho

spita

l is g

ettin

g m

ore

and

mor

e ex

pens

ive

and

also

car

ries t

he ri

sk o

f con

trac

ting

dise

ases

whe

n st

ayin

g in

ho

spita

l;• f

or n

on-e

mer

genc

ies,

hom

e ho

spita

l is t

he n

orm

: sta

ying

at h

ome

and

supp

orte

d by

a se

ries o

f rem

ote

heal

th m

easu

re d

evic

es, r

ente

d se

lf-m

edic

atio

n ap

plia

nces

and

nei

ghbo

rhoo

d so

cial

car

e ne

twor

ks;

• hea

lth c

are

prov

ider

s pro

vide

ong

oing

med

ical

supp

ort a

t hom

e an

d re

mot

e tr

eatm

ent w

ith a

ppro

pria

te te

chno

logy

;• ‘

eHea

lth’ h

elps

to in

crea

se p

ublic

med

ical

kno

wle

dge

and

part

icip

atio

n in

trea

tmen

t also

redu

cing

hea

lth c

osts

;• e

spec

ially

chr

onic

pat

ient

s and

eld

erly

peo

ple

can

stay

at h

ome

for

long

er.

“...g

oing

to h

ospi

tal n

owad

ays m

ostly

mea

ns st

ayin

g at

hom

e!

But a

t hom

e I c

an m

eet t

he d

octo

r on

line

and

get t

he su

ppor

t of

the

neig

hbor

hood

soci

al ca

re n

etw

ork.

. I ca

n be

supp

orte

d al

so

by a

serie

s of r

emot

e he

alth

mea

sure

dev

ices

, sel

f-med

icat

ion

appl

ianc

es te

mpo

raril

y re

nted

from

the

loca

l hea

lth ca

re ce

nter

, an

d ge

t adv

ice

from

form

er p

atie

nts f

rom

the

neig

hbor

hood

...”

Gia

nna,

68-

year

-old

, sub

urba

n in

habi

tant

, ret

ired

HO

ME

HO

SPIT

AL

• hug

e co

sts i

nduc

ed b

y ba

d su

stai

nabl

e m

anag

emen

t and

ca

tast

roph

e re

late

d in

crea

ses i

nduc

e pe

ople

to p

ay m

ore

and

mor

e at

tent

ion

to w

hat i

s don

e w

ith th

eir m

oney

;• a

fter m

any

! nan

cial

cris

es d

ue to

lack

of i

nves

tmen

t reg

ulat

ions

, tr

ansp

aren

cy is

the

norm

that

also

ben

e! ts

sust

aina

ble

proj

ects

;• s

usta

inab

le re

spon

sibili

ty, e

thic

al w

ealth

and

fair

bank

ing

crite

ria

is th

e no

rm o

n th

e ! n

anci

al m

arke

t; in

vest

men

ts a

re m

ade

only

for

sust

aina

ble

prop

osal

s.

“…ta

xes o

n pe

rson

al in

com

e ro

se li

ke m

ad to

cove

r dro

ught

s he

re a

nd ts

unam

is th

ere

and

cata

stro

phes

aft

er si

lly

urba

niza

tion

proj

ects

in m

ega-

citie

s: no

w I p

refe

r to

earn

less

, w

ith g

reen

and

fair

inve

stm

ents

but

I wan

t to

know

wha

t my

mon

ey is

use

d fo

r and

I wan

t to

be a

ble

to ju

dge

mys

elf i

f the

pr

ojec

ts !

nanc

ed w

ill b

e go

od o

r not

for t

he fu

ture

of m

y ki

ds…

Andr

ea, 3

7-ye

ar-o

ld, f

athe

r of t

he 3

child

ren

fam

ily

CLEA

N M

ON

EY

How

doe

s it w

ork?

How

doe

s it w

ork?

Com

men

ts

Com

men

ts

Consum

ing

Consum

ing

• mea

t onc

e a

wee

k in

a v

eget

aria

n di

et is

the

norm

;• t

he w

eekl

y m

eat f

east

, Sun

day

is th

e ce

lebr

atio

n da

y fo

r mea

t, fe

asts

ar

e or

gani

zed

at h

ome;

• mea

t is g

ettin

g m

ore

expe

nsiv

e, so

it is

act

ually

a p

leas

ure

and

luxu

ry

that

can

be

a! o

rded

onl

y on

ce a

wee

k;

• a lo

w-a

nim

al p

rote

in d

iet h

as b

een

prom

oted

by

both

gov

ernm

ents

an

d so

cial

com

mun

ities

due

to fo

od c

risis,

eco

nom

ic re

ason

s and

ne

cess

ary

shift

to m

ore

sust

aina

ble

food

con

sum

ptio

n.

“…al

l the

fam

ily g

athe

rs to

geth

er in

gra

ndm

a’s h

ouse

on

Sund

ay m

orni

ng, t

o ce

lebr

ate

the

mea

t fea

st. G

rand

ma

cook

s so

me

trad

ition

al m

eat d

ishe

s tha

t I d

on’t

eat s

o of

ten.

.. Us

ually

at

hom

e w

e do

not

eat

mea

t and

at s

choo

l we

have

a g

reen

-ve

geta

ble

cant

een.

.. It

is g

ood

to e

njoy

som

e m

eat o

nce

in a

w

hile

. I’ll

try

not t

o ea

t too

muc

h to

day.

..”

Lily

, 10

year

old

, prim

ary

scho

ol g

irl, d

escr

ibin

g Su

nday

mea

t fe

ast a

t gra

ndm

a’s p

lace

THE

MEA

T FE

AST

• the

Wise

Per

sona

l Foo

d Sh

oppe

r sys

tem

can

ana

lyze

use

r’s g

enet

ic

data

and

" t a

hea

lthy

diet

to h

is/he

r foo

d ch

oice

s;• t

he sy

stem

can

be

acce

ssed

from

any

por

tabl

e de

vice

in e

very

food

re

tail

plac

e an

d re

stau

rant

;• t

he d

evic

e di

spla

ys p

rope

rtie

s of f

ood

the

user

wou

ld li

ke to

eat

or

purc

hase

; inc

lude

s it i

n th

e di

et b

alan

ce; s

how

s qua

ntity

nee

ded/

allo

wed

; • i

t hel

ps to

mak

e sm

art a

nd ri

ght p

urch

ase

choi

ces,

to ra

ise in

divi

dual

aw

aren

ess o

f res

pons

ible

die

t, co

nsum

e le

ss h

igh-

calo

rie fo

od, m

ore

loca

l foo

d, o

rgan

ic fo

od…

and

enh

ance

sust

aina

ble

lifes

tyle

s…

“...I

have

just

reco

vere

d fr

om su

rger

y an

d w

ith th

e m

ix o

f dru

gs

for a

fter

trea

tmen

t I ca

n on

ly e

at ce

rtai

n ki

nds o

f foo

d...

The

ho

spita

l lea

se m

e a

Wis

e Pe

rson

al F

ood

Shop

per s

et to

my

exac

t die

t and

it’s

a re

lief w

hen

doin

g m

y sh

oppi

ng. I

feel

safe

fo

r obs

ervi

ng m

y di

et a

nd w

ith co

mbi

ned

reci

pes s

ugge

sted

, co

okin

g le

sson

s and

info

rmat

ion

on fo

od o

rigin

s it’s

als

o m

uch

easi

er to

ach

ieve

a su

stai

nabl

e di

et. I

thin

k I w

ill u

se it

als

o af

ter

the

end

of th

e th

erap

y as

a g

uide

in m

y da

ily li

fe…

Elis

a, 5

8-ye

ar-o

ld, c

itize

n

W.P

.F.S

. WIS

E PE

RSO

NA

L FO

OD

SH

OPP

ER

How

doe

s it w

ork?

Com

men

ts

Com

men

ts

Living

Living

• sus

tain

abili

ty e

duca

tion

is em

bedd

ed in

dai

ly li

ving

in th

e fo

rm o

f ac

tive

educ

atio

n, p

roje

ct b

ased

lear

ning

...;• f

riend

ly p

erio

ds sp

ent i

n co

ntac

t with

the

real

wor

ld fo

rm th

e ba

sis o

f ‘le

arni

ng fo

r life

’ edu

catio

n;• ‘

lear

ning

for l

ife’, m

eani

ng a

cqui

ring

basic

kno

wle

dge

on n

atur

al

cycl

es, b

io-d

iver

sity,

rege

nera

tion

proc

esse

s, se

lf-pr

oduc

tion.

.. ta

kes p

lace

on

the

! eld

, in

cont

act w

ith c

omm

uniti

es, f

amili

es,

prof

essio

nals.

..;• m

any

publ

ic a

nd p

rivat

e in

stitu

tions

dea

ling

with

sust

aina

ble

issue

s pr

ovid

e ba

sic e

duca

tion

on to

p of

thei

r mai

n ac

tiviti

es.

“...T

he cu

rric

ulum

for s

usta

inab

le e

duca

tion

in o

ur sc

hool

is

base

d on

25

mic

ro-in

tern

ship

s per

yea

r con

sist

ing

in d

ay o

r hal

f-da

y tr

ips t

o or

gani

c far

ms,

re-d

esig

n an

d re

cycl

ing

com

pani

es,

new

trad

ition

al cr

afts

man

wor

ksho

ps, w

ild li

fe p

rote

ctio

n pr

ojec

ts, h

uman

itaria

n pr

ogra

ms..

. whe

re w

e ge

t in

touc

h an

d le

arn

the

basi

cs a

bout

gro

win

g fo

od, p

rovi

ding

goo

ds a

nd

serv

ice,

self-

prod

uctio

n, n

atur

e pr

eser

vatio

n…”

Jenn

y, 9

yea

r old

, prim

ary

scho

ol p

upil

SUST

AIN

ABL

E CO

MPA

NIO

NSH

IP

How

doe

s it w

ork?

• str

ivin

g to

stee

r gen

eral

beh

avio

ur to

war

ds su

stai

nabl

e lif

esty

les

cons

titut

es a

di"

used

dyn

amic

con

text

pro

vidi

ng le

arni

ng

oppo

rtun

ities

at a

ny m

omen

t in

daily

livi

ng;

• the

syst

em w

orks

by

rew

ardi

ng g

ood

beha

viou

r• p

erva

sive

IT in

pro

duct

s and

aug

men

ted

envi

ronm

ents

pro

vide

s fe

edba

ck to

stim

ulat

e su

stai

nabl

e liv

ing,

whi

ch p

lays

as a

teac

hing

en

viro

nmen

t tha

t cha

nges

acc

ordi

ng to

age

and

situ

atio

n;• d

istan

ce le

arni

ng, u

sing

mor

e tr

aditi

onal

form

s of e

duca

tion,

ena

bles

st

ill o

pen

ques

tions

to b

e an

swer

ed a

nd in

tegr

ates

all

the

know

ledg

e in

the

stud

ent p

ortfo

lio;

• thi

s lea

rnin

g pr

oces

s sta

rts w

ith p

rimar

y ed

ucat

ion

and

goes

on

for

life.

“...k

ids n

o lo

nger

rely

onl

y on

scho

ols f

or th

eir e

duca

tion:

th

e la

yer o

f IT

embe

dded

in o

ur d

aily

life

is p

rovi

ding

a v

ery

resp

onsi

ve a

nd d

i! us

ed d

idac

tic e

nviro

nmen

t for

them

and

su

stai

nabi

lity

issu

es a

re p

rese

nt e

very

whe

re in

the

day-

to-d

ay

envi

ronm

ent,

from

the

ener

gy sm

art m

eter

dis

play

at h

ome

to

the

wat

er h

arve

stin

g co

ntro

l sys

tem

in th

e ne

ighb

orho

od, f

rom

th

e in

term

odal

mob

ility

org

aniz

er to

the

dist

ribut

ed a

ir qu

ality

co

ntro

l sch

eme.

..Eve

ryth

ing

wor

ks fo

r the

m ju

st li

ke a

rew

ard-

base

d ga

me

to p

lay.”

Arol

d, 4

4 ye

ars o

ld, p

rimar

y sc

hool

coac

h

LIFE

-LO

NG

SU

STA

INA

BILI

TY L

EARN

ING

How

doe

s it w

ork?

Com

men

ts

Mov

ing

• aut

omat

ic c

ars w

ithou

t driv

er;

• ded

icat

ed o

nlin

e an

d m

obile

app

licat

ion

for f

ully

per

sona

lized

pat

h;• m

arke

t-ba

sed

serv

ice:

par

tner

ship

bet

wee

n te

leco

mm

unic

atio

ns

com

pani

es, p

rivat

e ta

xis a

nd lo

cal t

rans

port

com

pani

es

“..I l

ove

my

wor

k an

d I l

ove

to h

ave

and

give

all

the

best

I can

. I’m

use

d to

reac

hing

clie

nts a

nd I l

ove

to b

e e!

cie

nt a

nd to

sp

end

with

cust

omer

s all

the

time

need

ed to

get

in tu

ne a

nd in

or

der t

o es

tabl

ish

a pl

easa

nt re

latio

nshi

p. T

hat’s

why

I usu

ally

m

ove

arou

nd th

e ci

ty b

y th

e Lu

xury

taxi

serv

ice,

it is

bril

liant

! M

y pr

ovid

er o

" ers

the

serv

ice

incl

uded

in th

e bu

sine

ss m

obile

ac

coun

t: au

tom

atic

supe

rcar

s with

out d

river

s brin

g yo

u ev

eryw

here

acc

ordi

ng to

per

sona

lized

pat

hs th

at y

ou ca

n pl

an

and

rede

# ne

alon

g th

e w

ay…

Cint

hia,

45,

prê

t a p

orte

r sty

list

LUXU

RY TA

XI S

ERVI

CE

Com

men

tsH

ow d

oes i

t wor

k?

Mov

ing

• mul

ti-sit

s ped

al-p

ower

ed sc

hool

bus

and

tran

spor

t ser

vice

s with

di

! ere

nt se

ats a

nd ra

tes f

or th

e ne

ighb

orho

od;

• cle

an e

nerg

y pr

oduc

tion

for t

rans

port

atio

n;• e

co-m

inde

d sc

hool

bus

and

edu

catio

nal a

spec

t of t

he se

rvic

e (s

tren

gthe

ning

aw

aren

ess)

.

“…I h

urt m

ysel

f pla

ying

and

I hav

e m

y le

g in

pla

ster

. Eve

ry

mor

ning

, whe

n I g

o to

scho

ol w

ith m

y sc

hool

-mat

es th

ey ri

de

the

peda

l veh

icle

as u

sual

pro

duci

ng a

lot o

f ene

rgy,

whi

le I’

m

sitt

ing

in th

e se

ats w

ithou

t ped

als n

ear M

iss M

arpl

e, th

e ol

d ne

ighb

our w

ith th

at st

rang

e sm

ell…

I’m lo

okin

g fo

rwar

d to

go

ing

ridin

g!...

Fabi

o, 5

yea

rs o

ld, d

isab

led

child

MU

LTI-S

ITS

PED

AL

VEH

ICLE

S

How

doe

s it w

ork?

How

doe

s it w

ork?

Com

men

ts

Com

men

ts

Society

Society

• ! n

d he

lp fr

om th

ose

arou

nd y

ou: w

ho is

whe

re a

nd a

vaila

ble

to d

o w

hat;

• loc

al b

ound

s are

stre

ngth

ened

by

mea

ns o

f com

mun

icat

ion

tool

s, in

telli

gent

sens

ors a

nd g

eo-lo

caliz

atio

n de

vice

s;• a

ctiv

ate

inst

ant s

uppo

rt a

nd c

lose

hel

p in

cas

e of

nee

d;• d

istric

t per

sona

l net

wor

ks a

re e

stab

lishe

d.

“I m

oved

yes

terd

ay, e

very

thin

g se

ems f

resh

to m

e, sa

dly

agai

n,

my

desk

lam

p w

as b

roke

n th

is m

orni

ng, I

shou

ld ch

ange

the

light

bul

b im

med

iate

ly, c

ome

on, I

still

hav

e co

mm

itmen

ts to

fu

l! ll

befo

re to

mor

row

. Whe

re ca

n I b

uy a

bul

b ne

arby

? I jo

ined

th

e co

mm

unity

net

wor

k w

hen

I mov

ed h

ere.

May

be I c

an a

sk fo

r he

lp th

ere

…”

Li, 2

5

SELF

EM

POW

ERM

ENT

CIRC

LES

• per

sona

lisat

ion

of m

edic

ines

is n

owad

ays a

stan

dard

pra

ctic

e;• e

very

body

has

a p

erso

nal I

D_D

NA

card

that

con

tain

s: th

eir g

enet

ic

map

and

bio

logi

cal d

ata,

but

also

thei

r dai

ly d

iet,

thei

r hab

its, t

heir

spor

ting

aptit

ude

and

the

hist

ory

of th

eir f

amily

;• e

very

doc

tor o

r spe

cial

ist h

as a

cces

s to

it in

ord

er to

get

a c

ompl

ete

over

view

of t

he p

atie

nt’ li

fe;

• the

car

d en

able

s ful

l per

sona

lisat

ion

of m

edic

ines

and

hea

ling

solu

tions

, com

bini

ng p

harm

aceu

tical

and

soci

al re

med

ies.

“...M

y m

um sa

ys th

at w

hen

I was

bor

n, ju

st b

efor

e go

ing

hom

e fr

om th

e ho

spita

l, sh

e re

ceiv

ed m

y pe

rson

al ID

_DN

A ca

rd. I

t is

a ve

ry sp

ecia

l Id

card

: it c

onta

ins a

ll th

e hi

stor

y of

my

fam

ily

and

it w

ill co

ntai

n al

so m

y hi

stor

y. S

o w

hen

I will

nee

d so

me

med

icin

es, t

he d

octo

rs w

ill a

lread

y kn

ow e

very

thin

g an

d th

ey

will

bui

ld a

spec

ial t

hera

py ju

st fo

r me.

..”

Paol

o, 9

, prim

ary

scho

ol st

uden

t

ID-D

NA

CA

RD

Pro

mis

ing

pr

actic

e

In re

cent

yea

rs, w

e ha

ve w

itnes

sed

the

emer

-ge

nce

of m

ore

sust

aina

ble

prod

ucts

, ser

vice

s an

d ex

perim

enta

l bot

tom

-up

initi

ativ

es. T

hey

have

sig

nale

d ne

w h

ope

that

mor

e su

stai

nabl

e w

ays

of li

ving

are

ach

ieva

ble

for a

ll, w

hile

cel

-eb

ratin

g di

vers

ity, i

n po

st-in

dust

rial s

ocie

ties.

D

espi

te th

ese

deve

lopm

ents

, exi

stin

g pr

omis

ing

sust

aina

ble

livin

g pr

actic

es a

re n

ot e

noug

h. T

hey

rem

ain

dwar

fed

by th

e un

sust

aina

ble

impa

cts

of

the

aver

age

Euro

pean

’s c

urre

nt li

fest

yles

.

To o

verc

ome

the

curr

ent c

halle

nges

of o

ur u

n-su

stai

nabl

e lif

esty

les,

the

SP

REA

D p

roje

ct h

as

deve

lope

d fu

ture

sce

nario

s of

pos

sibl

e so

ciet

ies

that

sup

port

mor

e su

stai

nabl

e w

ays

of li

ving

.

Page 4: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

4 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Uns

usta

inab

le li

fest

yle

impa

cts

to b

e ov

erco

me

by 2

050:

K

ey fi

ndin

gs o

f the

pro

ject

’s

base

line

rese

arch

The

SP

RE

AD

pro

ject

’s jo

urne

y to

futu

re s

ce-

nario

s fo

r m

ore

sust

aina

ble

lifes

tyle

s be

gan

by

taki

ng s

tock

of e

xist

ing

know

ledg

e on

sus

tain

-ab

le li

fest

yles

. Thr

ough

this

initi

al r

esea

rch

we

iden

tified

the

chal

leng

es a

nd b

arrie

rs to

mor

e su

stai

nabl

e liv

ing

toda

y, a

s w

ell a

s pr

omis

ing

tren

ds, d

river

s an

d op

port

uniti

es to

enc

oura

ge

mor

e su

stai

nabl

e w

ays

of li

ving

in th

e fu

ture

. Th

e re

sults

of t

his

base

line

rese

arch

can

be

foun

d in

our

pro

ject

rep

ort,

“Sus

tain

able

Life

-st

yles

: Tod

ay’s

Fac

ts a

nd T

omor

row

’s T

rend

s”.

Mod

ern

Euro

pean

life

styl

es a

re u

nsus

tain

able

. Th

ey h

ave

beco

me

asso

ciat

ed w

ith o

verp

rodu

c-tio

n an

d ov

erco

nsum

ptio

n. T

he im

pact

s of

our

lif

esty

les

are

putt

ing

too

muc

h pr

essu

re o

n ou

r na

tura

l res

ourc

es a

nd h

ave

adve

rse

envi

ronm

en-

tal,

econ

omic

, soc

ial a

nd h

ealth

effe

cts.

The

repo

rt re

veal

s th

at li

fest

yle

and

hous

ehol

d co

nsum

ptio

n fo

rm a

sig

nific

ant p

art o

f soc

iety

’s

envi

ronm

enta

l bur

den

as a

who

le. I

n re

cent

ye

ars,

sus

tain

able

life

styl

e ch

oice

s ha

ve s

tart

ed

to b

ecom

e a

mor

e re

leva

nt a

nd a

cces

sibl

e op

-tio

n fo

r som

e Eu

rope

an c

onsu

mer

s th

anks

to a

ris

e in

loca

lised

soc

ial i

nnov

atio

n ex

perim

ents

, th

e im

prov

ed s

uppl

y of

eco

-effi

cien

t goo

ds a

nd

serv

ices

, and

incr

ease

d co

vera

ge o

f sus

tain

abil-

ity is

sues

in th

e m

edia

rais

ing

awar

enes

s in

the

publ

ic d

ebat

e. W

e ca

ll th

ese

sign

als

of p

rogr

ess,

Page 5: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 5

“pro

mis

ing

prac

tices

” of

mor

e su

stai

nabl

e liv

ing

prac

tices

, and

they

form

a g

ood

foun

datio

n fo

r ex

plor

ing

the

futu

re o

f sus

tain

able

life

styl

es.

SP

REA

Din

g su

stai

nabl

e lif

esty

les

in th

e fu

ture

will

re

quire

, on

the

one

hand

, a d

eepe

r und

erst

andi

ng

of h

ow to

sca

le u

p cu

rren

t pro

mis

ing

prac

tices

. O

n th

e ot

her,

we

need

to k

now

how

far t

hese

pr

actic

es w

ill ta

ke u

s to

war

ds s

usta

inab

le li

ving

fo

r all,

and

wha

t kin

ds o

f new

cre

ativ

e so

lutio

ns,

curr

ently

unk

now

n or

“un

thin

kabl

e”, m

ight

get

us

ther

e.

Our

rese

arch

sug

gest

s th

at in

ord

er to

mak

e pr

ogre

ss in

thes

e ar

eas,

that

focu

s sh

ould

be

plac

ed o

n st

rate

gies

to a

ssis

t, m

otiv

ate

and

insp

ire b

ehav

iour

al c

hang

e, a

s w

ell a

s th

e ro

le

of in

fras

truc

ture

and

ena

blin

g su

stai

nabl

e liv

ing

envi

ronm

ents

.

The

scen

ario

s fo

r sus

tain

able

life

styl

es 2

050

pres

ent f

our d

iffer

ent p

roto

type

s of

pos

sibl

e fu

ture

soc

ietie

s th

at a

ll su

ppor

t mor

e su

stai

nabl

e lif

esty

les.

Our

life

styl

e sc

enar

ios

are

base

d on

the

foun

datio

ns o

f sus

tain

able

sys

tem

s, a

nd e

xplo

re

diffe

rent

opt

ions

in a

n at

tem

pt to

ack

now

ledg

e th

e di

vers

ity a

mon

g Eu

rope

an c

itize

ns.

The

criti

cal i

mpa

cts

of c

urre

nt E

urop

ean

lif

esty

les

are:

Food

and

drin

k, p

rivat

e tr

ansp

ort a

nd h

ous-

ing

toge

ther

acc

ount

for 7

0-80

% o

f Eur

ope’

s en

viro

nmen

tal i

mpa

cts

stem

min

g fro

m fi

nal

cons

umpt

ion

(Tuk

ker,

A.,

G. H

uppe

s, e

t al.

(200

6)).

Mea

t and

dai

ry c

onsu

mpt

ion

alon

e ac

coun

t fo

r alm

ost o

ne q

uart

er (2

4%) o

f all

final

con

-su

mpt

ion

impa

cts

– by

far t

he la

rges

t sha

re

in th

e fo

od a

nd d

rink

sect

or (W

eide

ma

et a

l. 20

08).

Dom

estic

hea

ting,

wat

er c

onsu

mpt

ion,

app

li-an

ce a

nd e

lect

roni

cs u

se a

ccou

nts

for 4

0%

of E

urop

e’s

tota

l ene

rgy

cons

umpt

ion

(with

he

atin

g al

one

acco

untin

g fo

r 67%

of h

ouse

-ho

ld e

nerg

y co

nsum

ptio

n in

the

EU-2

7) (E

EA

2010

).

Car

ow

ners

hip

in th

e EU

-27

incr

ease

d by

m

ore

than

one

third

(35%

) in

the

perio

d be

twee

n 19

90 a

nd 2

007

(EEA

201

0) a

nd E

U

driv

ers

curr

ently

ow

n on

e th

ird o

f the

wor

ld’s

75

0 m

illio

n ca

rs (I

EA 2

010)

.

In th

e EU

-27,

app

roxi

mat

ely

60%

of a

dults

an

d ov

er 2

0% o

f sch

ool-a

ge c

hild

ren

are

over

wei

ght o

r obe

se. C

oron

ary

hear

t dis

ease

s (C

HD

) ofte

n as

soci

ated

with

fatt

y fo

ods

and

smok

ing,

rem

ain

the

sing

le m

ost c

omm

on

caus

e of

dea

th in

the

EU (W

HO

201

1).

Ref

eren

ce: F

or m

ore

info

rmat

ion,

ple

ase

read

the

full

SP

REA

D S

usta

inab

le L

ifest

yles

205

0 ba

selin

e re

port

, ava

ilabl

e to

dow

nloa

d fro

m w

ww

.sus

tain

able

-life

styl

es.e

u.

Consuming SocietyLivingMoving

Page 6: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

6 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Our

sce

nario

s on

sus

tain

able

life

styl

esTh

e S

PR

EA

D S

usta

inab

le L

ifest

yles

205

0 pr

o-je

ct u

ses

a sc

enar

io m

etho

dolo

gy to

exp

lore

th

e di

vers

e w

ays

for

pote

ntia

l life

styl

e pa

tter

ns

to e

volv

e, a

nd h

ow th

is e

volu

tion

can

over

com

e cu

rren

t har

mfu

l env

ironm

enta

l and

soc

ial l

ife-

styl

e im

pact

s. O

ur s

usta

inab

le li

fest

yle

scen

ario

s ar

e st

orie

s of

pos

sibl

e fu

ture

s w

here

soc

ietie

s su

ppor

t mor

e su

stai

nabl

e w

ays

of li

ving

. The

sc

enar

ios

pres

ent d

iffer

ent o

ptio

ns fo

r su

stai

na-

ble

livin

g ch

oice

s th

at w

ill s

uit t

he d

iver

se n

eeds

, de

sire

s an

d cu

ltura

l con

side

ratio

ns o

f citi

zens

fr

om a

cros

s E

urop

e. T

he fo

ur s

cena

rios

pres

ent

diff

erin

g pa

thw

ays

to r

each

alte

rnat

ive

soci

etie

s w

here

sus

tain

able

way

s of

livi

ng a

re s

uppo

rted

.

Sce

nario

s ar

e no

t pre

dict

ions

or f

orec

asts

but

in

stea

d se

ek to

exp

lore

the

mos

t ext

rem

e po

s-si

bilit

ies,

in o

rder

to h

elp

deci

sion

-mak

ers

plan

for

the

curr

ently

“un

thin

kabl

e”. I

n or

der t

o de

velo

p st

orie

s of

the

futu

re, w

e fir

st i

dent

ified

the

mos

t cr

itica

l var

iabl

es –

the

criti

cal d

river

s ne

cess

ary

to c

reat

e su

stai

nabl

e lif

esty

les.

Som

e of

the

elem

ents

of o

ur s

cena

rio s

torie

s m

ight

sou

nd

impr

obab

le a

t firs

t. Th

e ai

m o

f our

sce

nario

s is

to

help

thin

k th

e un

thin

kabl

e an

d pl

an fo

r sus

tain

-ab

le o

ptio

ns in

the

futu

re.

The

focu

s of

our

sce

nario

s lie

s pr

imar

ily o

n pe

ople

’s li

fest

yles

. As

peop

le li

ve w

ithin

a s

oci-

ety,

and

with

in g

loba

l and

loca

l sys

tem

s, w

e al

so

iden

tify

syst

em b

ound

arie

s su

ch a

s, g

eopo

litic

s,

natio

nal p

oliti

cs, o

r tec

hnol

ogy

rela

ted

to e

ach

futu

re s

cena

rio. I

t is

clea

r tha

t the

se fa

ctor

s ha

ve

imm

ense

dire

ct a

nd in

dire

ct in

fluen

ce o

n lif

e-st

yles

. How

ever

, her

e th

ey a

re d

ealt

with

onl

y to

th

e ex

tent

that

they

dire

ctly

exp

lain

cha

nges

in

lifes

tyle

pat

tern

s.

We

have

cho

sen

a sp

ecifi

c sc

enar

io m

etho

dol-

ogy

to e

xplo

re d

iffer

ent o

ptio

ns fo

r new

Eur

opea

n so

cial

mod

els

that

enc

oura

ge s

usta

inab

le li

fe-

styl

es in

205

0. W

e fu

rthe

r out

line

our m

etho

dol-

ogy

here

:

1.

Our

sce

nario

s ai

m to

dem

onst

rate

how

va

rious

situ

atio

nal a

nd b

ehav

iour

al fa

ctor

s co

ntrib

ute

to th

e de

velo

pmen

t of s

usta

inab

le

lifes

tyle

s. S

cena

rios

form

a p

ower

ful t

ool f

or

tran

slat

ing

how

meg

atre

nds,

suc

h as

clim

ate

chan

ge, r

apid

tech

nolo

gica

l adv

ance

men

ts,

and

chan

ging

dem

ogra

phic

pat

tern

s co

uld

chan

ge o

ur e

very

day

lives

and

the

deci

sion

s w

e m

ake

conc

erni

ng h

ow w

e liv

e, m

ove

and

cons

ume

in th

e fu

ture

.

2.

Our

sce

nario

s en

able

us

to a

naly

se th

e po

tent

ial o

f cur

rent

pro

mis

ing

sust

aina

ble

liv-

ing

prac

tice

in re

latio

n to

the

vario

us fa

ctor

s

Situ

atio

nal a

nd b

ehav

iour

al fa

ctor

s in

fluen

cing

hum

an b

ehav

iour

Source: Defra, Sustainable Lifestyles Framework, 2011.

Influ

enci

ng h

uman

be

havi

our

Env

ironm

enta

l ch

ange

Beh

avio

ural

fact

ors

Situ

atio

nal f

acto

rs

Geo

grap

hy

Cul

ture

Infr

astr

uctu

re

Soc

ial L

earn

ing

Soc

ial N

etw

orks

Info

rmat

ion

Acc

ess

to

Cap

ital

Inst

itutio

nal

Fram

ewor

kLe

ader

ship

Altr

uism

Aw

aren

ess

Sel

f-ef

ficac

y

Valu

es

Per

cept

ions

Nor

ms

Bel

iefs

Exp

erie

nce

Att

itude

s

Hab

its

Iden

tity

Kno

wle

dge

Page 7: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 7

The

back

cast

ing

met

hod

In o

rder

to e

stab

lish

four

sus

tain

able

life

styl

e sc

enar

ios

for

Eur

ope

in 2

050,

we

have

use

d a

met

hodo

logy

cal

led

back

cast

ing.

The

bac

kcas

ting

met

hod

allo

ws

us to

ad-

dres

s th

e ris

k th

at s

tart

ing

from

the

pres

ent m

ay le

ad to

co

ncen

trat

ing

on c

halle

nges

that

are

irre

leva

nt fo

r th

e fu

ture

we

aim

to a

chie

ve.

Bac

kcas

ting

help

s us

to s

et o

ur c

ompa

sses

tow

ards

su

stai

nabl

e fu

ture

s by

defi

ning

sus

tain

able

life

styl

es,

and

thei

r ele

men

ts, a

s fix

ed v

aria

ble

goal

s. T

his

norm

a-tiv

e go

al a

s a

star

ting

poin

t for

the

scen

ario

s he

lps

us

to s

ee th

e di

scre

panc

ies

betw

een

curr

ent r

ealit

ies

and

desi

rabl

e fu

ture

s, b

ut a

lso

help

s us

to u

nder

stan

d, w

here

di

srup

tive

chan

ges

are

mos

t nee

ded.

Bac

kcas

ting

ex-

plor

es a

ltern

ativ

e pa

thw

ays

to s

ucce

ssfu

lly re

achi

ng th

e de

sire

d fu

ture

goa

ls.

Our

pre

mis

e is

that

ther

e ar

e fa

ctor

s th

at s

et li

mits

to

mea

ning

ful f

utur

e liv

ing

such

as:

limite

d gl

obal

cru

de o

il re

serv

es th

at fo

rce

prod

uc-

tion

to d

eclin

e at

som

e po

int (

peak

oil)

a lim

ited

“car

bon

budg

et”

of g

reen

hous

e ga

s

conc

entr

atio

n in

the

atm

osph

ere

Exce

edin

g th

ese

or o

ther

rele

vant

lim

its w

ould

cre

-at

e fe

edba

ck e

ffect

s th

at w

ould

ver

y lik

ely

redu

ce th

e re

sour

ces

and

capa

bilit

ies

avai

labl

e to

peo

ple

livin

g in

th

e co

min

g de

cade

s. H

ence

the

scop

e of

des

irabl

e, b

ut

achi

evab

le fu

ture

s w

ould

als

o be

mor

e lim

ited

in th

e fu

-tu

re. T

o ge

nera

te fu

ture

life

styl

e sc

enar

ios

that

are

rele

-va

nt a

nd ro

bust

, it i

s im

pera

tive

to re

cogn

ize

thes

e lim

its.

Cyl

inde

r m

odel

of c

onst

ruct

ing

poss

ible

futu

re s

cena

rios

Con

e m

odel

of c

onst

ruct

ing

mea

ning

ful f

utur

e sc

enar

ios

driv

ing

alte

rnat

ive

sust

aina

ble

futu

res.

Thr

ough

sce

nario

s w

e ai

m to

exp

lore

the

way

s in

w

hich

pro

mis

ing

nich

e st

rate

-gi

es fo

r mor

e su

stai

nabl

e liv

ing

coul

d gr

ow in

to w

ides

prea

d pr

actic

es th

at h

ave

the

po-

tent

ial t

o de

crea

se th

e ov

eral

l en

viro

nmen

tal s

tres

s on

our

so

ciet

ies.

3.

Our

sce

nario

s pr

ovid

e a

star

t-in

g po

int f

or id

entif

ying

opp

or-

tuni

ty s

pace

s fo

r the

dev

elop

-m

ent o

f cre

ativ

e st

rate

gies

to

not o

nly

mai

nstr

eam

cur

rent

su

stai

nabl

e pr

actic

es, b

ut a

lso

to d

evel

op n

ew s

olut

ions

for

mor

e su

stai

nabl

e liv

ing

so-

ciet

ies.

The

sce

nario

s of

fer

insi

ghts

into

how

diff

eren

t driv

-er

s of

cha

nge

inte

ract

, sha

pe

lifes

tyle

s an

d he

lp in

iden

tifyi

ng

the

role

of v

ario

us g

atek

eep-

ers

who

faci

litat

e th

e ch

ange

th

roug

h sc

alin

g up

and

mul

ti-pl

ying

the

curr

ent,

prom

isin

g pr

actic

es o

n di

ffere

nt s

tage

s of

de

velo

pmen

t.

Spac

e of

opp

ortu

nitie

s

Usu

al fu

ture

per

spec

tive

Futu

re p

ersp

ectiv

e w

ith s

yste

m b

ound

arie

s

Spa

ce o

f opp

ortu

nitie

s

2050

Now

2050

Now

Car

bon

budg

etP

eak

oil

Cor

e

visi

on

Page 8: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

8 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

The

sust

aina

ble

lifes

tyle

= 8

000

kg p

er a

nnum

In o

rder

to c

reat

e sc

enar

ios

for

sust

aina

ble

life-

styl

es in

205

0, w

e ne

ed d

efini

tions

and

com

mon

ta

rget

s to

spe

cify

wha

t is

mea

nt b

y ”s

usta

inab

le

lifes

tyle

s”. I

n th

e S

PR

EA

D p

roje

ct w

e ha

ve d

e-fin

ed th

e m

ater

ial f

ootp

rint o

f a s

usta

inab

le li

fe-

styl

e at

800

0 kg

per

ann

um (p

.a.)

for

one

pers

on.

This

qua

ntifi

ed ta

rget

form

s th

e fu

ndam

enta

l as

sum

ptio

n on

whi

ch e

ach

of o

ur fo

ur d

evel

oped

an

d pr

evio

usly

des

crib

ed s

cena

rios

is b

uilt.

Our

sc

enar

ios

desc

ribe

wha

t 8 0

00 k

g liv

ing

can

look

lik

e in

four

div

erse

futu

re s

ocie

ties.

The

8000

kg

p.a.

of m

ater

ial f

ootp

rint p

er p

erso

n is

bas

ed o

n th

e w

ork

of M

icha

el L

ette

nmei

er,

Ste

fan

Brin

gezu

, Frie

dric

h S

chm

idt-

Ble

ek e

t al

from

the

Wup

pert

al In

stitu

te fo

r Clim

ate,

Env

iron-

men

t and

Ene

rgy

on a

saf

e an

d su

stai

nabl

e le

vel

of n

atur

al re

sour

ce u

se.

The

mat

eria

l foo

tprin

t is

a to

ol to

mea

sure

and

m

anag

e or

opt

imiz

e th

e re

sour

ce c

onsu

mpt

ion

of

our l

ifest

yles

, inc

ludi

ng th

e pr

oduc

ts a

nd p

rodu

c-

tion

proc

esse

s be

hind

them

(i.e

. in

the

area

s of

co

nsum

ing,

mov

ing,

hou

sing

and

hea

lth).

In th

is

cont

ext,

our s

usta

inab

le li

fest

yle

mat

eria

l foo

tprin

t m

eans

the

use

of re

new

able

and

non

-ren

ewab

le

mat

eria

l res

ourc

es (e

xcl.

wat

er a

nd a

ir) p

lus

the

eros

ion

caus

ed b

y ag

ricul

ture

and

fore

stry

. It c

ov-

ers

the

who

le li

fecy

cle

from

the

extr

actio

n of

raw

m

ater

ials

to th

e pr

oces

sing

indu

stry

, dis

trib

utio

n,

cons

umpt

ion,

recy

clin

g, a

nd d

ispo

sal.

The

idea

of t

he m

ater

ial f

ootp

rint i

s to

pro

vide

a

com

preh

ensi

ve a

nd u

nder

stan

dabl

e to

ol to

re

duce

diff

eren

t kin

ds o

f pre

sent

and

futu

re e

nvi-

ronm

enta

l cha

lleng

es (f

or e

xam

ple

in th

e ar

eas

of

food

, mob

ility

, hou

sing

and

hea

lth).

Whe

n th

e m

ater

ial f

ootp

rint o

f an

aver

age

Eu-

rope

an li

fest

yle

drop

s fro

m 2

7000

– 4

000

0 (a

p-pr

oxim

ate

curr

ent a

vera

ge li

fest

yle

foot

prin

t per

pe

rson

) to

8000

kg

per y

ear,

the

envi

ronm

enta

l an

d re

sulti

ng s

ocia

l im

pact

s of

our

life

styl

es w

ill

drop

and

cha

nge

cons

ider

ably

. The

mat

eria

l

foot

prin

t thu

s se

rves

as

a to

ol to

com

preh

ensi

vely

di

rect

life

styl

es to

leve

ls w

ithin

pla

neta

ry b

ound

a-rie

s as

des

crib

ed e

.g. b

y Jo

han

Roc

kstr

öm a

nd

othe

r sci

entis

ts (s

ee b

elow

). It

also

pro

vide

s a

way

to

mea

sure

pro

gres

s an

d m

ilest

ones

of s

ucce

ss

tow

ards

our

futu

re s

usta

inab

le li

fest

yle

goal

s.

The

mat

eria

l foo

tprin

t of 8

000

kg p

.a. c

onsi

sts

of h

ouse

hold

goo

ds, f

ood

and

beve

rage

s, e

ve-

ryda

y m

obili

ty a

nd to

uris

m, e

lect

ricity

, hea

ting

and

hous

ing.

How

ever

, the

com

posi

tion

of th

e fo

otpr

int i

s no

t sim

ilar f

or e

very

one.

The

sha

re o

f co

nsum

ptio

n in

a m

ater

ial f

ootp

rint o

f 800

0 kg

p.

a. c

an d

iffer

bas

ed o

n th

e va

lues

, nee

ds a

nd

aspi

ratio

ns o

f eac

h pe

rson

’s u

niqu

e lif

esty

le.

For

exam

ple,

som

e pe

ople

may

acc

umul

ate

mor

e of

th

eir f

ootp

rint t

hrou

gh m

obili

ty w

hile

oth

ers

mov

e le

ss, b

ut li

ve in

a la

rger

apa

rtm

ent.

Not

eve

ryon

e ne

eds

to li

ve th

e sa

me

way

, but

– a

t lea

st o

n av

er-

age

– ev

eryo

ne m

ust l

ive

with

in b

ound

arie

s of

our

pl

anet

ary

syst

em in

ord

er to

real

ize

our s

usta

in-

able

futu

re.

Page 9: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 9

Ear

th-s

yste

m p

roce

ssC

urre

nt

valu

eB

ound

ary

va

lue

Clim

ate

chan

ge

Atm

osph

eric

car

bon

diox

ide

conc

entr

atio

n (p

pm b

y vo

lum

e)38

735

0

Bio

dive

rsity

loss

Ex

tinct

ion

rate

(num

ber o

f sp

ecie

s pe

r mill

ion

per y

ear)

>100

10

Bio

chem

ical

A

nthr

opog

enic

nitr

ogen

re

mov

ed fr

om th

e at

mos

pher

e (m

illio

ns o

f ton

nes

per y

ear)

121

35

Land

use

La

nd s

urfa

ce c

onve

rted

to

crop

land

(per

cent

)11

,715

Fres

h w

ater

G

loba

l hum

an c

onsu

mpt

ion

of w

ater

(km

3 /yr

)26

0040

00

Ozo

ne la

yer

Str

atos

pher

ic o

zone

co

ncen

trat

ion

(Dob

son

units

)28

327

6

Ref

eren

ce: R

ocks

tröm

J. e

t all.

(201

1)

Hum

an d

evel

opm

ent

Cur

rent

Va

lue

Goa

l 205

0

Hum

an D

evel

oped

Inde

x (m

easu

re o

f life

exp

ecta

ncy,

lit

erac

y, e

duca

tion

and

stan

dard

s of

livi

ng)

0,63

0,77

Year

s of

edu

catio

n in

less

de

velo

ped

coun

trie

s (a

vera

ge y

ears

)6

8

Life

exp

ecta

ncy

(glo

bal a

vera

ge)

70>7

5

GIN

I coe

ffici

ent

(Mea

sure

of t

he in

equa

lity:

a

valu

e 0

expr

essi

ng to

tal

equa

lity

and

a va

lue

1 m

axim

al in

equa

lity.

)

0,7

0,55

Glo

bal p

opul

atio

n (b

illio

n)7

8,9

Ref

eren

ce: U

ND

P (2

011)

Envi

ronm

enta

l and

soc

ial

indi

cato

rs in

clud

ed in

th

e 80

00 k

g p.

a. li

fest

yle:

Envi

ronm

enta

l bou

ndar

ies

Soc

ial b

ound

arie

s

2. S

ocia

l bou

ndar

ies

We

use

popu

latio

n gr

owth

and

hum

an d

evel

op-

men

t ind

ices

bas

ed o

n st

atis

tics

and

rese

arch

by

UN

DP

and

UN

Pop

ulat

ion

Div

isio

n. T

hese

soc

ial

syst

em b

ound

arie

s (th

e go

als

for 2

050)

are

the

min

imum

requ

irem

ents

for s

ocia

lly s

usta

inab

le

deve

lopm

ent.

The

mat

eria

l foo

tprin

t bou

ndar

y of

80

00 k

g p.

a. fo

r one

per

son’

s lif

esty

le is

bas

ed o

n th

e w

orld

wid

e re

cogn

ition

of t

hese

soc

ial s

yste

m

boun

darie

s.

1. E

nviro

nmen

tal b

ound

arie

sW

e dr

aw o

n th

e pl

anet

ary

boun

darie

s fr

ame-

wor

k de

velo

ped

by a

gro

up o

f ear

th s

yste

m a

nd

envi

ronm

enta

l sci

entis

ts le

d by

Joh

an R

ocks

tröm

fro

m th

e S

tock

holm

Res

ilien

ce C

entr

e. D

ue to

the

com

plex

ity o

f qua

ntify

ing

thes

e pl

anet

ary

boun

d-ar

ies,

we

only

incl

uded

six

of t

he o

rigin

al n

ine

in

the

back

grou

nd c

onsi

dera

tions

for t

he s

cena

rios.

A

s th

e qu

antifi

catio

n of

the

indi

cato

rs u

sed

by

Roc

kstr

öm’s

gro

up o

n a

lifes

tyle

leve

l wou

ld h

ave

been

ext

rem

ely

com

plex

, we

used

the

mat

eria

l fo

otpr

int (

see

abov

e) a

s an

indi

cato

r for

the

vari-

ous

kind

s of

env

ironm

enta

l im

pact

s ca

used

by

any

kind

of m

ater

ial a

nd e

nerg

y us

e.

Page 10: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

10 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Four

sce

nario

s, tw

o cr

itica

l unc

erta

intie

sP

ande

mic

tech

nolo

gyG

loba

lly th

ere

are

a fe

w d

omin

ant t

echn

olog

ies

for

any

task

or

hum

an

need

. Te

chno

logi

es f

or b

uild

ing,

tra

nspo

rtat

ion,

ene

rgy

prod

uctio

n,

and

com

mun

icat

ion

exis

t ev

eryw

here

and

look

sim

ilar.

Ther

e’s

fierc

e co

mpe

titio

n on

the

glo

bal m

arke

ts a

nd c

omm

erci

al d

omin

ance

yie

lds

huge

rew

ards

. Te

chno

logy

in 2

011

coul

d be

cal

led

pand

emic

. Ev

ery-

one’

s on

face

book

and

driv

es a

car

(pro

duce

d by

a fe

w g

loba

l man

u-fa

ctur

ers)

that

runs

on

petr

ol o

r die

sel f

uel (

glob

ally

exc

hang

ed g

oods

).

Hum

an-c

entri

smA

hum

an-c

entr

ic s

ocie

ty p

ivot

s ar

ound

w

iden

ing

the

use

of h

uman

cap

ital i

n al

l its

form

s. B

oth

civi

c an

d pu

blic

use

of

skill

s is

val

ued.

Eve

ryon

e ha

s so

met

hing

va

luab

le to

giv

e or

to d

o. S

ocie

ty’s

suc

-ce

ss d

epen

ds o

n ev

eryo

ne c

ontr

ibut

ing

and

on e

very

one’

s ab

ility

to b

e go

od

citiz

ens,

fam

ily m

embe

rs, n

eigh

bour

s an

d pr

ofes

sion

als.

The

re is

som

e di

vi-

sion

of l

abou

r, bu

t sel

f-im

prov

emen

t th

roug

h le

isur

e is

als

o ve

ry m

uch

appr

e-ci

ated

: e.g

. thr

ough

fam

ily ti

me,

act

ive

cons

umpt

ion,

civ

ic a

ctiv

ities

, han

dicr

aft,

arts

. You

do

wha

t you

can

– a

nd w

hat

you

feel

mot

ivat

ed to

do.

Mer

itocr

acy

A m

erito

crat

ic s

ocie

ty c

ircle

s ar

ound

pr

ofes

sion

al s

kills

. The

mos

t com

-m

erci

ally

val

uabl

e pr

ofes

sion

al s

kills

ar

e th

e en

gine

s of

the

econ

omy.

M

embe

rs o

f tho

se p

rofe

ssio

ns a

re

paid

acc

ordi

ngly

. Pol

icie

s an

d st

ruc-

ture

s ar

e cu

stom

ized

to fa

cilit

ate

the

wor

k of

the

lead

ing

indu

strie

s an

d pr

ofes

sion

s. D

ivis

ion

of la

bour

is a

t its

ext

rem

e. Y

ou d

o on

ly w

hat y

ou’re

re

ally

goo

d at

. Ende

mic

tech

nolo

gyTh

e to

ols,

infr

astr

uctu

res,

and

sol

utio

ns w

e us

e ar

e bo

rn a

nd g

row

n lo

cally

: te

chno

logy

em

erge

s ou

t of

loc

al c

ondi

tions

, re

sour

ces,

and

pe

culia

ritie

s. L

ocal

liv

ing

cond

ition

s ru

le t

echn

olog

y. W

here

the

re i

s w

ood,

hou

ses

are

built

of

timbe

r –

whe

re t

he d

ays

are

extr

emel

y ho

t, pe

ople

live

in t

ents

. Th

e co

rpus

of

glob

al s

cien

ce a

nd t

echn

olog

y is

w

ide,

yet

app

licat

ions

are

hig

hly

loca

l. Th

e ec

onom

y is

driv

en b

y ef

-fic

ienc

y an

d in

nova

tions

gai

ned

thro

ugh

thin

king

and

act

ing

loca

lly.

In o

rder

to e

stab

lish

four

sce

nario

s th

at w

ould

si

gnifi

cant

ly d

iffer

from

eac

h ot

her,

we

defin

ed

at th

e ou

tset

four

futu

re la

ndsc

apes

thro

ugh

whi

ch th

e sc

enar

ios

wou

ld b

e co

nstr

ucte

d.

This

was

don

e by

com

bini

ng th

e tw

o cr

itica

l var

i-ab

les,

whi

ch w

e ca

ll un

cert

aint

ies.

We

use

thes

e un

cert

aint

ies

to d

efine

life

styl

es a

nd s

ocie

ties.

Th

e tw

o un

cert

aint

ies

and

assu

mpt

ions

abo

ut

them

und

erlin

ing

our w

ork

wer

e th

at:

Tech

nolo

gy is

eith

er p

ande

mic

or e

ndem

ic.

Soc

iety

’s g

over

ning

prin

cipl

e is

eith

er h

uman

-ce

ntric

or m

erito

crat

ic.

By

com

bini

ng th

ese

two

sets

of a

ltern

ativ

es, w

e re

ache

d ou

r fou

r pos

sibl

e fu

ture

land

scap

es. T

he

follo

win

g ar

e de

scrip

tions

of w

hat t

hese

futu

re

land

scap

es w

ould

look

like

on

the

soci

etal

leve

l.

Thes

e tw

o cr

itica

l unc

erta

intie

s de

fined

the

mai

n dr

iver

s sh

apin

g th

e sc

enar

ios

and

the

scen

ario

pr

oces

s. A

t lat

er s

tage

of t

he w

ork

we

defin

ed

four

add

ition

al d

river

s fo

r eac

h sc

enar

io. W

ith th

e he

lp o

f the

se d

river

s w

e w

ere

able

to g

ive

a re

a-so

nabl

e ex

plan

atio

n on

how

sus

tain

able

life

styl

es

and

the

sust

aina

ble

soci

ety

can

be re

ache

d in

ea

ch s

cena

rio.

Page 11: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 1

1

Sin

gula

r S

uper

Cha

mpi

ons

Loca

l Loo

ps

Gov

erni

ng

the

Com

mon

s

Empa

thet

ic

Com

mun

ities

Pan

dem

ic te

chno

logy

Hum

an-c

entri

smM

erito

crac

y

Ende

mic

tech

nolo

gy

Page 12: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

12 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

The

deve

lopm

ent o

f fut

ure

scen

ario

s fo

r m

ore

sust

aina

ble

lifes

tyle

s in

205

0 bu

ilds

on a

ll pr

evi-

ous

wor

k in

the

proj

ect.

The

rese

arch

con

duct

ed

on c

ritic

al li

fest

yle

impa

cts

as w

ell a

s th

e ba

rri-

ers

and

driv

ers

impe

ding

and

enc

oura

ging

mor

e su

stai

nabl

e w

ays

of li

ving

pro

vide

a s

olid

bas

is

for

crea

ting

path

way

s to

war

ds p

ossi

ble

futu

res

whe

re th

ese

chal

leng

es c

an b

e ov

erco

me

and

oppo

rtun

ities

for

impr

oved

livi

ng r

ealis

ed.

Sus

tain

able

life

styl

e

scen

ario

s 20

50 –

the

“mak

ing

of”

The

crea

tion

of a

ltern

ativ

e fu

ture

s fo

r sus

tain

able

lif

esty

les

to a

s fa

r as

2050

was

com

plet

ed in

five

ph

ases

.

1.

Defi

ning

the

fram

ewor

k (a

xes

of c

ritic

al u

n-ce

rtai

ntie

s) fo

r the

cre

atio

n of

the

scen

ario

qu

adra

nts:

Bas

elin

e re

sear

ch a

nd fi

ndin

gs o

f th

e S

PR

EAD

Del

phi s

urve

y of

exp

ert v

iew

s.

2.

Defi

ning

four

sce

nario

land

scap

es.

3.

Expl

orin

g th

e pa

thw

ays

to s

usta

inab

le li

ving

: B

ackc

astin

g w

orks

hop

in T

uusu

la, F

inla

nd.

4.

Qua

lifyi

ng a

nd q

uant

ifyin

g th

e sc

enar

ios

and

path

way

s: R

esea

rch

& 2

nd D

elph

i sur

vey.

5.

Fina

lisin

g th

e sc

enar

io s

torie

s an

d vi

sual

isa-

tions

.

How

did

we

get h

ere?

Pha

se O

ne:

Defi

ning

the

scen

ario

fram

ewor

k Th

e de

velo

pmen

t of o

ur s

cena

rio fr

amew

ork

incl

uded

the

anal

ysis

of t

he p

roje

ct’s

bas

elin

e re

-se

arch

and

iden

tifica

tion

of p

rom

isin

g pr

actic

e on

su

stai

nabl

e lif

esty

les,

as

wel

l as

furt

her i

nput

and

an

alys

is fr

om a

cro

sscu

ttin

g gr

oup

of re

leva

nt

stak

ehol

ders

and

exp

erts

.

In N

ovem

ber 2

011,

follo

win

g th

e ba

selin

e re

-se

arch

, a s

elec

tive

Del

phi S

urve

y w

as c

ondu

cted

am

ongs

t a c

ross

cutt

ing

grou

p of

rele

vant

sta

ke-

hold

ers

and

expe

rts.

The

sur

vey

aim

ed a

t find

ing

a fe

asib

le fr

amew

ork

for t

he b

ackc

astin

g w

ork-

shop

. The

sur

vey

ques

tionn

aire

was

form

ulat

ed

base

d on

the

findi

ngs

of th

e S

PR

EAD

bas

elin

e re

port

, the

SP

REA

D la

unch

con

fere

nce

repo

rt

and

prom

isin

g pr

actic

es c

ards

from

the

SP

REA

D

Visi

onin

g w

orks

hop.

Aro

und

40 p

eopl

e ou

t of 1

10

invi

ted

resp

onde

d to

the

surv

ey.

The

surv

ey q

uest

ionn

aire

incl

uded

a fo

rmul

atio

n of

ass

umpt

ions

or “

argu

men

ts”

that

par

ticip

ants

w

ere

aske

d to

eva

luat

e (b

ased

on

assu

mpt

ions

pr

obab

ility

, des

irabi

lity

and

impo

rtan

ce) a

nd c

om-

men

t (ex

plai

ning

wha

t driv

ers

wou

ld c

ause

an

assu

mpt

ion

to b

e re

alis

ed o

r fai

l to

be re

alis

ed).

Inst

ead

of a

skin

g fo

r com

men

ts o

n cu

rren

t tre

nds,

th

e re

spon

dent

s w

ere

requ

este

d to

des

crib

e th

ings

they

see

in p

lace

in 2

050,

in a

wor

ld w

here

su

stai

nabl

e lif

esty

les

are

the

norm

acr

oss

Euro

pe.

Pha

se tw

o:

Defi

ning

four

sce

nario

land

scap

esB

ased

on

the

anal

ysis

of t

he re

sear

ch a

nd

the

surv

ey, w

e w

ere

able

to d

efine

two

criti

cal

varia

bles

or u

ncer

tain

ties

that

we

com

bine

d to

pr

oduc

e fo

ur a

ltern

ativ

e fu

ture

land

scap

es. W

e di

d th

is u

sing

the

prin

cipl

es o

f sys

tem

s th

inki

ng,

whi

ch h

elpe

d us

map

the

rele

vant

situ

atio

nal a

nd

beha

viou

ral f

acto

rs in

fluen

cing

hum

an b

ehav

iour

.

The

two

criti

cal u

ncer

tain

ties

are

tech

nolo

gy a

nd

a so

ciet

y’s

gove

rnin

g pr

inci

ple.

We

wer

e ab

le to

di

vide

tech

nolo

gy in

to e

ither

pan

dem

ic o

r end

em-

ic, a

nd th

e go

vern

ing

prin

cipl

e of

the

soci

ety

into

ei

ther

mer

itocr

atic

or h

uman

-cen

tred

. By

com

bin-

ing

thes

e un

cert

aint

ies,

we

crea

ted

the

scen

ario

qu

adra

nts.

The

se w

ere

elab

orat

ed in

to fo

ur a

lter-

nativ

e fu

ture

land

scap

es, w

hich

form

ed th

e ba

sis

for o

ur w

ork

in th

e ba

ckca

stin

g w

orks

hop.

Pha

se th

ree:

Expl

orin

g th

e pa

thw

ays

to s

us-

tain

able

livi

ng: B

ackc

astin

g w

ork-

shop

in T

uusu

la, F

inla

ndTh

e ”C

ount

ing

back

war

ds w

orks

hop”

was

hel

d on

the

24-2

5th

of N

ovem

ber 2

011

in T

uusu

la,

Finl

and.

The

re, f

our a

ltern

ativ

e sc

enar

io p

athw

ays

from

201

2 to

205

0 w

ere

crea

ted

with

the

help

of

Page 13: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 1

3

54 p

artic

ipan

ts fr

om 1

6 co

untr

ies,

repr

esen

ting

stak

ehol

der g

roup

s fro

m s

tart

-up

busi

ness

es to

go

vern

men

ts, m

ultin

atio

nal c

ompa

nies

, NG

Os,

re

sear

cher

s, e

ntre

pren

eurs

, des

igne

rs a

nd

inde

pend

ent p

olic

y ex

pert

s. T

hese

par

ticip

ants

w

ere

divi

ded

into

four

gro

ups

and

each

defi

ned

an a

ltern

ativ

e sc

enar

io n

arra

tive

and

path

way

s to

sus

tain

able

life

styl

es in

Eur

ope

betw

een

2012

an

d 20

50.

In th

e w

orks

hop

the

back

cast

ing

met

hod

was

us

ed to

exp

lore

the

path

way

s to

mor

e su

stai

na-

ble

livin

g an

d to

furt

her d

efine

eac

h al

tern

ativ

e fu

-tu

re s

cena

rio. S

tart

ing

with

the

alte

rnat

ive

futu

re

land

scap

es c

reat

ed in

pha

se tw

o, p

artic

ipan

ts

“cou

nted

bac

kwar

ds”

from

the

2050

futu

res

to

toda

y. E

ach

grou

p w

as c

halle

nged

to c

o-cr

eate

th

e pa

thw

ays

to th

eir a

ltern

ativ

e fu

ture

whe

re

sust

aina

ble

8 00

0 kg

life

styl

es a

re s

ocie

tal n

orm

s –

Wha

t wou

ld h

ave

to h

ave

happ

ened

204

0, 2

025

and

2015

in o

rder

to re

ach

diffe

rent

8 0

00 k

g lif

e-st

yles

in th

is s

cena

rio?

Spe

cial

focu

s w

as p

ut o

n cr

itica

l life

styl

e im

pact

issu

es (e

.g. f

ood,

mob

ility

, ho

usin

g an

d he

alth

) as

wel

l as

driv

ers

of li

fest

yle

choi

ces,

suc

h as

ena

blin

g in

fras

truc

ture

and

be-

havi

or c

hang

e st

rate

gies

that

wer

e hi

ghlig

hted

in

the

SP

REA

D b

asel

ine

rese

arch

.

Pha

se fo

ur:

Qua

lifyi

ng a

nd q

uant

ifyin

g th

e sc

enar

ios

and

path

way

s:

Res

earc

h &

Del

phi s

urve

y

To q

ualif

y th

e sc

enar

io s

torie

s an

d pa

thw

ays

for-

mul

ated

in p

hase

thre

e, a

sec

ond

Del

phi s

urve

y,

with

sta

keho

lder

s an

d ex

pert

s, w

as c

ondu

cted

. Th

e ai

m o

f the

sec

ond

surv

ey w

as to

gat

her

addi

tiona

l ass

umpt

ions

and

arg

umen

ts fo

r eac

h sc

enar

io. R

espo

nden

ts w

ere

aske

d to

com

men

t fro

m th

e pe

rspe

ctiv

e of

his

or h

er e

xper

tise.

S

urve

y re

sults

wer

e fe

d in

to a

revi

sed

draf

t of t

he

scen

ario

s.

The

scen

ario

dra

fts w

ere

furt

her

test

ed a

nd

quan

tified

thro

ugh

the

SP

REA

D P

eopl

e’s

Foru

m,

whi

ch w

e ca

ll “i

Futu

re”.

iFut

ure

enab

led

us to

ex

plor

e th

e sc

enar

ios

with

“re

al p

eopl

e” fr

om

acro

ss E

urop

e, w

ith fo

cus

grou

ps a

ssem

bled

in

four

Eur

opea

n co

untr

ies

from

Jan

uary

-Mar

ch

2012

(Fin

land

, Ger

man

y, H

unga

ry a

nd S

pain

). In

th

e iF

utur

e w

orks

hops

the

SP

REA

D p

roje

ct w

as

able

to c

onne

ct th

e sc

enar

io s

torie

s to

peo

-pl

es’ r

eal a

ssum

ptio

ns, a

spira

tions

and

idea

s ab

out “

the

good

life

” an

d th

eir o

wn

sust

aina

ble

lifes

tyle

s, w

here

the

size

of i

ndiv

idua

l mat

eria

l fo

otpr

ints

do

not e

xcee

d 8

000

kg p

.a.

Pha

se fi

ve:

Fina

lisin

g th

e sc

enar

io s

torie

s

and

visu

alis

atio

nsIn

the

final

pha

se, t

he s

cena

rios

wer

e ad

vanc

ed

to fi

nal s

torie

s an

d vi

sual

isat

ions

to s

how

wha

t su

stai

nabl

e lif

esty

les

in 2

050

coul

d lo

ok li

ke w

ere

crea

ted.

At t

his

stag

e, th

e sc

enar

ios

wer

e fu

rthe

r el

abor

ated

on

to m

ake

the

diffe

renc

es in

eac

h al

tern

ativ

e fu

ture

soc

iety

exp

licit

with

the

iden

tifi-

catio

n of

four

driv

ers

of c

hang

e fo

r eac

h sc

enar

io.

Furt

her f

ocus

was

put

on

defin

ing

wha

t life

is li

ke

for d

iffer

ent p

eopl

e in

eac

h sc

enar

io a

nd h

ow

envi

ronm

enta

l and

soc

ial c

hang

es h

ave

impa

cted

th

eir l

ives

, or b

ecom

e ca

taly

sts

for b

ehav

iour

ch

ange

.

Page 14: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

14 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050Fo

ur s

cena

rios

to

sust

aina

ble

lifes

tyle

s

2012

–205

0

Page 15: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 1

5

Sing

ular

Sup

er C

ham

pion

s

Page 16: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

16 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Sing

ular

Sup

er

Cha

mpi

ons

An

agei

ng E

urop

e re

ceiv

es a

tran

sfor

mat

ive

and

reju

vena

ting

spar

k, in

ord

er to

sur

vive

as

Chi

na

bega

n its

str

ides

tow

ards

gai

ning

tota

l glo

bal

dom

inan

ce in

cle

ante

ch m

arke

ts a

t the

sta

rt o

f th

e 20

10 d

ecad

e. A

t alm

ost t

he la

st m

omen

t, in

20

15, t

he E

U w

ager

ed a

ll of

its

polit

ical

pow

er

and

publ

ic re

sour

ces

to fo

rce

com

pani

es a

nd

cons

umer

s in

to th

e er

a of

a n

ew in

dust

rial r

evo-

lutio

n. D

evel

opin

g ne

w m

ater

ials

and

brin

ging

ab

out a

revo

lutio

n in

pro

duct

ion

tech

nolo

gies

co

mes

abo

ut th

roug

h in

cent

ives

and

pol

itica

l m

easu

res.

Eur

opea

n na

tions

agr

ee to

rem

ove

all

subs

idie

s fro

m in

dust

ries

oper

atin

g w

ith in

ef-

ficie

nt le

gacy

tech

nolo

gies

in th

e en

ergy

and

re

sour

ce in

tens

ive

field

s. A

ll av

aila

ble

budg

et in

th

e m

embe

r sta

tes

is in

vest

ed in

mas

sive

R&

D

cent

res,

dem

onst

ratio

n pr

ojec

ts a

nd e

spec

ially

in

educ

atio

n.

This

was

not

a p

ain-

free

road

to s

ucce

ss. R

evo-

lutio

nisi

ng te

chno

logi

cally

and

eco

logi

cally

out

-da

ted

prod

uctio

n pr

oces

ses,

as

wel

l as,

cut

ting

subs

idie

s fro

m fu

el a

nd m

any

othe

r com

mod

ities

m

eans

that

man

y pe

ople

lost

thei

r job

s. A

ll tr

ans-

port

atio

n, a

nd e

spec

ially

sin

gle

car u

se b

ecam

e m

uch

mor

e ex

pens

ive

and

all a

ssoc

iate

d ho

us-

ing

cost

s ro

se. T

he b

ig re

form

did

n’t t

reat

eve

ry

citiz

en o

r reg

ion

equa

lly. T

his

crea

ted

turm

oil i

n de

clin

ing

regi

ons

in th

e 20

20’s

but

, the

mas

ses

wer

e fo

rced

to a

dapt

. Sim

ulta

neou

s re

form

s in

w

elfa

re p

rovi

sion

s du

e to

bud

get c

uts

drov

e m

any

Euro

pean

s to

mig

rate

and

sea

rch

for i

ncom

e op

-po

rtun

ities

from

thriv

ing

met

ropo

litan

regi

ons

thus

sp

eedi

ng u

p th

e co

ncen

trat

ion

of th

e po

pula

tion

and

sour

ces

of w

ealth

.

Big

inve

stm

ents

pai

d of

f: S

cien

tific

brea

kthr

ough

s in

mat

eria

l tec

hnol

ogy

mad

e th

e up

-cyc

ling

of

raw

mat

eria

ls p

rofit

able

. Firm

s in

the

crad

le to

cr

adle

bus

ines

s st

arte

d to

mak

e so

lid p

rofit

s in

th

e la

tter

hal

f of 2

020’

s. A

cces

s to

the

cons

ump-

tion

cycl

e an

d w

hat w

as p

revi

ousl

y ca

lled

was

te

beca

me

the

key

dete

rmin

ant o

f suc

cess

to th

e la

rge

mul

tinat

iona

l firm

s. N

ew s

ervi

ce a

nd d

is-

trib

utio

n m

odel

s w

ere

crea

ted.

The

y pu

t new

em

phas

is o

n bu

ildin

g la

stin

g re

latio

nshi

ps w

ith

cust

omer

s. T

his

was

the

only

way

to m

ake

the

valu

able

reso

urce

s st

ored

in m

ater

ial p

rodu

cts

retu

rn to

pro

duct

ion.

Con

sum

ers

expe

rienc

ed th

is

thro

ugh

serv

ices

that

equ

ippe

d th

em c

onst

antly

w

ith u

p-to

-dat

e m

odel

s of

the

good

s th

ey h

ave

once

bou

ght a

cces

s to

. For

som

e, th

ese

tech

no-

logi

cally

driv

en li

fest

yle

good

s co

mpe

nsat

ed a

nd

repl

aced

thei

r pas

t nee

ds fo

r spa

ciou

s si

ngle

-fa

mily

hou

ses

and

mod

estly

pric

ed c

ars.

Sin

gula

r Sup

er C

ham

pion

s is

a s

ocie

ty in

whi

ch

succ

ess,

bot

h fo

r ind

ivid

uals

and

soc

ietie

s al

ike,

is

gai

ned

thro

ugh

pers

iste

nt fa

ith in

edu

catio

n an

d en

terp

rise.

In jo

b m

arke

ts e

xper

tise

is e

ve-

ryth

ing

beca

use

tech

nolo

gy d

evel

ops

fast

and

th

e on

ly s

ourc

e of

suc

cess

in th

e er

a of

reso

urce

sc

arci

ty is

exp

ert k

now

ledg

e.

Ever

yone

has

acc

ess

to b

asic

edu

catio

n, le

arn-

ing

and

know

ledg

e. B

ut b

eyon

d th

at th

ere

is a

m

oral

obl

igat

ion

for c

ontin

uous

dev

elop

men

t of

pers

onal

and

pro

fess

iona

l ski

lls th

at d

rive

sus-

tain

able

soc

ietie

s. L

eisu

re ti

me

is th

eref

ore

quite

di

ffere

nt fr

om le

isur

e tim

e in

201

2. It

is s

pent

on

lear

ning

and

edu

catio

n th

at is

sel

f-ce

ntre

d ye

t

Alte

rnat

ive

Sus

tain

able

Soc

iety

1:

Sup

porti

ng 8

000

kg

Sus

tain

able

Li

fest

yles

In

the

scen

ario

Sin

gula

r S

uper

Cha

mpi

ons

Eu-

rope

has

mad

e th

e le

ap to

a n

ew ty

pe o

f sus

-ta

inab

le, c

ompe

titiv

e an

d eq

uita

ble

econ

omy:

a

resu

lt of

num

erou

s tr

eatie

s, d

ecla

ratio

ns a

nd

offic

ial g

oals

sta

rtin

g fr

om 2

035.

The

leap

is

achi

eved

with

the

depl

oym

ent o

f mar

ket i

nstr

u-m

ents

that

als

o ra

dica

lly r

efor

m m

any

cond

i-tio

ns th

at h

ave

shap

ed E

urop

ean

lifes

tyle

s ov

er

the

past

dec

ades

. Cle

ante

ch a

nd u

pcyc

ling

busi

ness

es fl

ouris

h as

sus

tain

abili

ty h

as b

ecom

e th

e bu

sine

ss o

ppor

tuni

ty o

f the

cen

tury

. Eur

ope

of S

ingu

lar

Sup

er C

ham

pion

s is

a s

ocie

ty th

at

cele

brat

es a

n et

hos

of le

arni

ng, a

chie

ving

and

se

lf-m

aste

ry.

Sin

gula

r

Sup

er C

ham

pion

s

Loca

l Loo

ps

Gov

erni

ng

the

Com

mon

s

Em

path

etic

C

omm

uniti

es

Pan

dem

ic te

chno

logy

Human-centrism

Meritocracy

Ende

mic

tech

nolo

gy

Page 17: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 1

7

Wha

t ch

ange

s be

twee

n 20

12 a

nd 2

050?

Edu

catio

nEm

bedd

ed in

to e

very

day

life

and

prac

tices

, life

long

in

stea

d of

sho

rt c

ycle

s in

the

begi

nnin

g of

life

. In

divi

dual

ized

and

com

mod

itisi

zed.

Bas

is o

f wel

fare

pr

ovis

ion.

Wor

kH

uman

reso

urce

s hi

ghlig

ht w

ork.

Tal

ent i

s co

ncen

-tr

ated

in g

loba

l org

aniz

atio

ns. E

ntre

pren

eur v

s. s

uper

ta

lent

ed m

ultin

atio

nals

cla

ss.

City

10-1

5 hi

ghly

urb

aniz

ed m

etro

polis

es in

Eur

ope.

Ex

trem

ely

dens

e. L

ots

of n

ew in

fras

truc

ture

. New

sp

ecia

lised

are

as o

f exc

elle

nce.

Hea

lthP

reve

ntat

ive

publ

ic h

ealth

care

. Rat

iona

l die

ts. S

elf-

diag

nosi

s.

Livi

ngLo

catio

n co

mpe

nsat

es s

ize

of th

e fla

t. N

ew m

ater

ials

an

d de

sign

. Pric

e dr

ives

den

sity

.

Food

Pric

e an

d he

alth

effi

cien

t die

t. La

rge

scal

e or

gani

c pr

oduc

tion.

Mob

ility

New

rail

syst

ems

with

in a

nd b

etw

een

met

ropo

lises

. P

erso

naliz

ed ra

pid

tran

spor

t sys

tem

s. S

mar

t mob

ility

so

lutio

ns. H

igh

pric

es.

Con

sum

ing

Mea

ning

s an

d sy

mbo

ls g

et c

onsu

med

mor

e th

an

prod

ucts

. Edu

catio

n an

d se

lf-pr

ojec

ted

me.

Pric

e m

echa

nism

.

Eco

nom

yLa

rge

mul

tinat

iona

l firm

s. E

ffici

ency

. Com

petit

ion.

Ec

o-in

dust

rial r

evol

utio

n. S

tand

ardi

zed

tran

spar

ent

data

Sen

se o

f se

curi

tyFr

om te

chno

logi

cal p

rogr

ess.

Tra

nspa

renc

y. S

urve

il-la

nce.

Indi

vidu

al c

hoic

es. T

houg

ht le

ader

s.

Leas

ure

time

Inve

stin

g in

ow

n ed

ucat

ion

and

trai

ning

.

prag

mat

ic. T

he m

ost a

fflue

nt p

eopl

e, T

he S

ingu

-la

r Sup

er C

ham

pion

s, h

ave

tran

scen

ded

mat

eria

l co

nsum

ptio

n. In

stea

d of

con

sum

ing,

they

mak

e in

vest

men

ts in

them

selv

es th

roug

h st

udyi

ng n

ew

skill

s, b

oth

to im

prov

e pr

ofes

sion

ally

and

to b

e-co

me

cham

pion

s of

thei

r ind

ivid

ual l

ifest

yle.

How

are

sus

tain

able

lif

esty

les

achi

eved

?Th

e ro

ad to

war

ds s

usta

inab

ility

sta

rted

with

peo

-pl

e ha

ving

to p

ay m

ore

for t

he n

eces

sitie

s an

d lu

xurie

s th

at a

re le

ss e

xpen

sive

in 2

012.

Due

to e

xtre

me

urba

nisa

tion,

peo

ple

live

in e

ven

mor

e de

nse

citie

s th

an th

ey d

id in

the

2010

’s. A

s th

e im

port

ance

of c

ities

and

thei

r cen

tres

rise

at

the

sam

e tim

e, th

e m

ost t

alen

ted

peop

le a

spire

to

be in

the

dow

ntow

n ar

eas

of p

rogr

ess

in th

e m

e-tr

opol

is. T

his

rais

es th

e pr

ices

of a

part

men

ts a

nd

loca

tion

star

ts to

com

pens

ate

for s

pace

– w

hich

le

ads

to m

ore

sust

aina

ble

hous

ing

alte

rnat

ives

for

the

mai

nstr

eam

.

With

rega

rds

to m

obili

ty, r

isin

g re

sour

ce p

rices

st

arte

d to

influ

ence

peo

ple’

s be

havi

our e

ven

mor

e di

rect

ly. A

s th

e pr

ice

of g

as h

it ne

w p

eaks

, som

e of

th

e po

ores

t hou

seho

lds

ende

d up

sac

rifici

ng s

ig-

nific

ant a

mou

nts

of th

eir i

ncom

e fo

r the

ir pe

rson

al

mob

ility

. Thi

s dr

ove

urba

nisa

tion,

whi

ch a

gain

le

d to

peo

ple

need

ing

to u

se th

eir r

esou

rces

for

mob

ility

less

. Onl

y th

e m

ost w

ealth

y pe

ople

had

th

e po

ssib

ility

to tr

avel

exc

eedi

ngly

as

air t

rave

l w

as o

ut o

f rea

ch fo

r man

y. M

obili

ty in

gen

eral

has

decr

ease

d dr

amat

ical

ly o

ver t

he y

ears

. The

pai

nful

m

easu

res

prov

ided

a c

atal

yst f

or ra

pid

chan

ge.

Sus

tain

abili

ty h

as b

ecom

e th

e bu

sine

ss o

ppor

tu-

nity

of t

he c

entu

ry. I

t bre

athe

s ne

w li

fe in

to e

ntre

-pr

eneu

rshi

p, n

ew b

usin

ess

mod

els,

and

peo

ple

expe

rimen

t with

var

ious

asp

ects

of s

usta

inab

le

livin

g at

hom

e w

hich

sav

es m

oney

in th

e sh

ort

term

and

pro

ves

resi

lient

in th

e lo

ng te

rm.

As

peop

le s

tart

ed to

get

acc

ess

to d

etai

led

data

on

thei

r ow

n be

havi

our t

hrou

gh th

eir s

mar

t ph

ones

in re

al ti

me,

and

sci

ence

pro

vide

s in

-cr

easi

ng a

mou

nts

of in

form

atio

n re

gard

ing

heal

thy

and

sust

aina

ble

alte

rnat

ives

, peo

ple

star

ted

ratio

naliz

ing

thei

r die

ts. I

nste

ad o

f tas

te,

nutr

ition

bec

ame

the

key

driv

er o

f day

-to-

day

food

cho

ices

.

In a

dditi

on to

pric

e dr

iver

s ch

angi

ng th

e w

ays

peop

le b

ehav

e, te

chno

logi

cal i

nnov

atio

n ha

s pr

ovid

ed m

any

sust

aina

ble

choi

ces

and

alte

rna-

tives

not

ava

ilabl

e in

201

2. N

ew m

ater

ials

mad

e it

poss

ible

to b

uild

hou

ses

that

are

ext

rem

ely

ener

gy e

ffici

ent.

Bre

akth

roug

hs in

tech

nolo

gy

enab

le re

trofi

ttin

g an

d ne

w c

onst

ruct

ion

as v

i-ab

le w

ays

to p

rovi

de s

usta

inab

le li

ving

pos

sibi

li-tie

s. T

he p

ost-

oil e

ra, i

n tu

rn, c

hang

ed c

ars

into

m

obile

sol

utio

ns fo

r ele

ctric

ity. L

ocal

ly p

rodu

ced

rene

wab

le e

nerg

y is

sto

red

in id

le c

ar b

atte

ries

whe

n ca

rs a

re p

arke

d In

a s

ocie

ty o

f Sin

gula

r S

uper

Cha

mpi

ons

sust

aina

bilit

y is

acc

ompl

ishe

d th

roug

h ch

ange

s in

beh

avio

ur p

atte

rns

and

con-

sum

ptio

n pr

actic

es a

nd c

onsu

mer

cho

ices

alo

ng

with

tech

nolo

gica

l inn

ovat

ions

.

Sin

gula

r Sup

er C

ham

pion

s sc

enar

io

narr

ativ

e –

how

did

it a

ll ha

ppen

? »

The

Euro

pean

Gre

en N

ew D

eal

»Tr

ansp

aren

cy g

ets

the

pric

es ri

ght

»Th

e up

cycl

ing

econ

omy

»Le

arni

ng, n

ot e

arni

ng

Thes

e dr

iver

s ar

e de

pict

ed a

s ev

ents

on

the

timel

ine.

Wha

t is

life

like

in

Sin

gula

r Sup

er C

ham

pion

s

Page 18: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

18 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

The

Euro

pean

Gre

en N

ew D

eal

Tran

spar

ency

get

s th

e pr

ices

righ

t

The

upcy

clin

g ec

onom

y

Lear

ning

, not

ear

ning

2015

: EU

prim

e m

inis

ters

con

clud

e th

at re

form

s of

unp

rece

dent

ed

scop

e ne

ed to

be

impl

emen

ted

in a

ll EU

cou

ntrie

s to

pre

vent

them

fro

m fa

lling

into

a p

erm

anen

t sta

te o

f zer

o gr

owth

. Evi

denc

e-ba

sed

polic

y-m

akin

g ga

ins

prom

inen

ce a

nd b

rings

pol

itics

and

rese

arch

cl

oser

toge

ther

.

2015

: In

Chi

na, t

here

’s a

n ou

tbre

ak o

f pr

oble

ms

rela

ted

to c

limat

e ch

ange

. N

atur

al c

atas

trop

hes,

incl

udin

g dr

ough

t, el

imin

ate

a gr

owin

g sh

are

of c

rops

, cau

s-in

g fo

od p

rices

to ri

se d

ram

atic

ally

.

2015

: The

beg

inni

ng o

f the

fina

ncia

l yea

r st

arte

d w

ith a

rem

arka

ble

boom

in re

new

a-bl

es in

em

ergi

ng m

arke

ts. T

he v

italit

y of

re

new

able

s co

mes

larg

ely

from

a v

ibra

nt

priv

ate

sect

or.

2019

: Afr

aid

of c

itize

ns g

row

ing

rest

less

, lea

ders

of

the

Com

mun

ist p

arty

in C

hina

ann

ounc

e a

new

fiv

e-ye

ar p

lan

whi

ch is

abo

ut in

vest

ing

a gr

eat

shar

e of

Chi

na’s

mas

sive

dol

lar r

eser

ves

in th

e cl

ean-

tech

sec

tor,

into

whi

ch it

has

alre

ady

pour

ed

a co

nsid

erab

le a

mou

nt o

f mon

ey o

ver t

he p

ast 1

0 ye

ars.

2020

: The

re is

pre

ssur

e to

revo

lu-

tioni

se te

chno

logi

cally

and

eco

logi

-ca

lly o

utda

ted

prod

uctio

n pr

oces

ses

and

elim

inat

e ex

pens

ive

and

harm

ful

ince

ntiv

es. E

cono

mic

sub

sidi

es (e

.g.

fuel

) will

be

cut a

nd e

colo

gica

l cos

ts

will

be

inte

rnal

ized

in p

rices

.

“Edu

catio

n is

ev

eryw

here

in d

aily

lif

e. K

ids

can

log

in to

any

obj

ect

and

acce

ss th

e so

-cal

led

‘situ

ated

ed

ucat

ion

pro-

gram

mes

’ and

le

arn

flexi

bly

all

thro

ugh

the

day.

“Wou

ld y

ou li

ke to

lear

n so

met

hing

new

” as

ks th

e ne

w c

ompu

ter

prog

ram

I j

ust b

ough

t. A

ll ar

ound

E

urop

e w

e le

arn

the

sam

e th

ings

from

sta

te-o

f-th

e-ar

t sof

twar

e.

2016

: In

Den

mar

k an

d N

orw

ay c

om-

preh

ensi

ve e

duca

tiona

l ref

orm

s ai

m a

t im

prov

ing

lear

ning

cap

acity

thro

ugh

mov

ing

prim

ary

educ

atio

n pa

rtly

out

-si

de th

e cl

assr

oom

.

Me

and

my

wife

are

hap

py

that

our

5-y

ear-

old

daug

h-te

r go

t acc

epte

d in

to a

sp

ecia

list m

aths

sch

ool

for

the

very

tale

nted

. Thi

s m

eans

tale

nt h

unte

rs w

ill

notic

e he

r in

no

time.

2015

I jus

t bou

ght a

n ap

p th

at

allo

ws

me

to tr

ack

my

cons

umpt

ion.

My

pers

onal

pu

rcha

se h

isto

ry is

my

own

prop

erty

now

!

2018

: Peo

ple

all a

roun

d Eu

rope

inve

st in

larg

e fir

ms

that

com

pete

ove

r he

gem

ony

in s

usta

inab

le

tech

nolo

gies

.

2018

: A c

oalit

ion

of th

e 50

00

bigg

est e

nter

pris

es b

ased

in

the

EU la

unch

es a

n in

itiat

ive

to

awar

d jo

int d

egre

es. L

eade

rshi

p an

d co

mpe

titiv

enes

s ar

e nu

r-tu

red

thro

ugh

inte

rnat

iona

l ex-

ams

and

othe

r lea

rnin

g ev

ents

in

clud

ing

e.g.

com

petit

ions

, w

hich

are

see

n as

the

best

way

to

pro

vide

stu

dent

s w

ith th

e sk

ills

they

nee

d.

Sch

ool p

rogr

ams

inte

grat

ing

in

dai

ly a

ctiv

ities

Diff

used

lear

ning

em

bedd

ed

in e

very

day

prod

ucts

It’s

so c

ool t

hat t

he lu

nch

cafe

at o

ur w

ork

serv

es

food

for

heal

thy

and

cost

-ef

ficie

nt d

iets

. It’s

the

hot-

test

food

tren

d ar

ound

and

no

w I

don’

t hav

e to

vis

it th

e co

oles

t are

as in

tow

n to

enj

oy it

. It’

right

her

e,

whe

re I

wor

k!

Page 19: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 1

9

2021

: New

com

petit

iven

ess

mec

hani

sms

are

intr

oduc

ed in

the

Euro

zon

e. G

over

nmen

ts s

uppo

rt R

&D

act

iviti

es to

exp

lore

eco

-lo

gica

l pro

duct

ion

met

hods

.

2022

: Des

erte

c at

trac

ts s

olar

com

pani

es a

ll ov

er th

e w

orld

to c

onqu

er s

pots

in th

e S

ahar

a. O

ne o

f the

larg

est

firm

s in

the

sect

or a

nnou

nces

that

they

will

sta

rt p

rovi

ding

tr

ansp

aren

t inf

orm

atio

n on

the

prod

uctio

n cy

cle,

ene

rgy

and

natu

ral r

esou

rce

cons

umpt

ion

on a

ll th

eir p

rodu

cts.

2024

: Pla

ns to

shi

ft th

e em

phas

is o

f wel

fare

pro

gram

mes

gr

adua

lly to

war

ds s

uppo

rtin

g yo

ung

peop

le a

nd e

duca

tion

pass

es a

t an

EU s

umm

it. O

n th

e ba

sis

of g

ood

exam

ples

from

D

enm

ark,

it is

als

o ag

reed

that

bas

ic e

duca

tion

shou

ld b

e re

form

ed to

incl

ude

mor

e tr

aini

ng o

n sk

ills

for l

ife, e

.g. a

dopt

-in

g he

alth

y lif

esty

les.

2022

: The

maj

ority

of E

U m

embe

r sta

tes

intr

oduc

e ne

w c

ross

-cut

ting

road

pric

ing

for

all r

oads

due

to th

e ne

ed to

com

pens

ate

for

loss

es in

fuel

tax

reve

nues

that

are

att

rib-

uted

to in

crea

sed

vehi

cle

ener

gy e

ffici

ency

an

d a

shift

to e

lect

ric c

ars.

As

a re

sult,

pe

ople

sta

rt to

pre

fer s

hort

com

mut

ing

dist

ance

s, s

ervi

ce-r

ich

neig

hbor

hood

s an

d go

od lo

catio

n ov

er la

rge

livin

g sp

ace.

2024

: Pos

sess

ing

half

of w

orld

’s p

hosp

ho-

rus

rese

rves

, Mor

occo

sta

rts

to re

gula

te

sale

s of

this

“ne

w g

old”

. Thi

s in

turn

lead

s to

unf

ores

een

hike

in fe

rtili

zer p

rices

. D

ecre

ased

use

eve

ntua

lly s

tart

s to

affe

ct

annu

al c

rop

yiel

ds.

2025

: The

big

gest

com

pani

es in

food

, con

stru

c-tio

n, IC

T, m

anuf

actu

ring

and

car i

ndus

trie

s ag

ree

on tr

ansp

aren

cy s

tand

ards

on

data

con

cern

ing

the

ener

gy a

nd n

atur

al re

sour

ce c

onsu

mpt

ion

of

thei

r pro

duct

ion

proc

esse

s. T

he E

U c

ount

ries,

C

hina

and

US

A s

oon

adop

t the

se s

tand

ards

as

basi

s fo

r leg

isla

tion,

whi

ch m

eans

that

pra

ctic

ally

al

l pro

duct

ion

and

serv

ices

hav

e to

mee

t sim

ilar

tran

spar

ency

sta

ndar

ds.

“For

mer

onl

ine

gam

es li

ke

Bio

div

Bat

tle o

r S

imS

ust

turn

ed o

ut to

be

popu

lar

sust

aina

bilit

y ga

mes

that

sp

read

eco

-con

scio

usne

ss

bett

er th

an a

ny c

ampa

ign

ever

did

.”

Thro

ugh

tran

spar

ent i

n-fo

rmat

ion

and

incr

ease

d ed

ucat

ion,

I’m

ver

y kn

owl-

edge

able

abo

ut w

hat i

s he

alth

y to

eat

, how

muc

h ex

erci

se is

nee

ded

and

wha

t ar

e th

e sy

mpt

oms

of d

iffer

ent

dise

ases

. Hea

lthca

re is

mor

e pr

even

tativ

e.

Som

e of

my

empl

oy-

ees

have

to s

pend

40

% o

n tr

avel

as

long

di

stan

ce c

omm

ut-

ing

and

risin

g ga

s pr

ices

hav

e re

ally

hit

thei

r bu

dget

s. M

ost

of th

em h

ave

alre

ady

mad

e th

e m

ove

to p

ublic

tran

spor

t and

m

any

are

cons

ider

-in

g m

ovin

g cl

oser

to

our

offi

ce.

2020

: Peo

ple

cele

brat

e th

e la

unch

of t

he h

igh-

spee

d ra

il ne

twor

k th

at h

as b

een

expa

nded

to

cov

er a

ll ro

utes

bet

wee

n Eu

-ro

pe’s

maj

or c

ities

. The

se tr

ains

st

art t

o pu

sh a

irlin

e co

mpa

nies

ou

t of t

he m

arke

t.

2020

2

02

5

My

cous

in M

icha

el b

ough

t a

farm

last

wee

k. T

he

glob

al r

ise

of fo

od p

rices

is

turn

ing

peop

le to

-w

ards

agr

icul

tura

l ca

reer

s.

Educ

ativ

e si

mul

a-tio

n ga

mes

Ass

iste

d fa

mily

le

arni

ng p

roce

sses

Ban

ks s

tart

to p

rovi

de n

ew e

nerg

y so

lu-

tions

for

peop

le to

fina

nce

the

ener

gy

retr

ofitt

ing

of th

eir

hous

e.

2023

: Glo

bal d

igita

l int

egra

tion

brin

gs p

rodu

ct c

ycle

s an

d sy

stem

s cl

oser

to

geth

er, e

nabl

ing

new

inno

vatio

ns to

be

intr

oduc

ed e

asily

acr

oss

the

glob

e.

This

app

lies

to h

ouse

hold

s, to

o, a

s sp

ecifi

c te

chno

logi

cal m

onito

ring

pro-

gram

mes

sup

port

indi

vidu

als

in re

duci

ng fo

od w

aste

to p

ract

ical

ly z

ero.

Page 20: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

20 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

The

Euro

pean

Gre

en N

ew D

eal

Tran

spar

ency

get

s th

e pr

ices

righ

t

The

upcy

clin

g ec

onom

y

Lear

ning

, no

t ear

ning

2028

: With

the

help

of t

rans

pare

nt p

rodu

ct

data

peo

ple

lear

n to

und

erst

and

how

indi

-vi

dual

con

sum

er c

hoic

es in

food

, hou

sing

, m

obili

ty b

uild

thei

r ove

rall

lifes

tyle

.

2025

: Tha

nks

to m

ajor

leap

s in

tech

nolo

gy, t

he fi

rst

cost

-effe

ctiv

e la

rge-

scal

e up

cycl

ing

proc

esse

s ar

e la

unch

ed in

the

Euro

pean

mar

kets

. New

ent

erpr

ises

st

art t

o de

velo

p ar

ound

the

prov

isio

n an

d di

strib

utio

n of

reso

urce

s. T

hey

leas

e pr

oduc

ts in

ord

er to

mak

e su

re th

at th

ey re

tain

ow

ners

hip

of re

sour

ces

used

in

prod

uctio

n. C

radl

e-to

-cra

dle

is th

e fa

stes

t gro

win

g bu

sine

ss a

nd a

rea

of re

sear

ch.

“…W

e ha

ve

care

fully

pre

-pa

red

a su

s-ta

inab

le tr

ip to

C

hina

. We

are

goin

g by

boa

t an

d ar

e st

art-

ing

to le

arn

the

lang

uage

so

that

we

can

com

mun

icat

e w

ith th

e pe

o-pl

e w

ho w

ill

host

us

ther

e.”

2028

: Chi

na, U

SA

and

the

EU m

ake

mas

sive

inve

stm

ents

in

cle

an-t

ech

that

toge

ther

with

dra

stic

pric

e hi

kes

in

scar

ce n

atur

al re

sour

ces

brin

g th

e pr

ices

of e

colo

gica

lly

sust

aina

ble

good

s be

low

the

pric

es o

f the

ir un

sust

ain-

able

, res

ourc

e-in

tens

ive

rival

s ac

ross

all

sect

ors.

The

se

thre

e gl

obal

pow

ers

driv

e su

stai

nabl

e in

dust

ry.

One

of t

he s

ubur

bs in

Bilb

ao

was

reb

uilt

with

the

new

-es

t sta

te-o

f-th

e-ar

t ene

rgy

effic

ient

mat

eria

ls. A

frie

nd

of m

ine

just

mov

ed th

ere.

It

is a

ttra

ctin

g pe

ople

who

pr

evio

usly

cou

ld n

ot h

ave

imag

ined

livi

ng in

suc

h a

loca

tion.

20

25

20

30

I eat

onl

y fo

od th

at’s

hyp

er-

effic

ient

in te

rms

of n

utrit

ion

leve

ls. C

abba

ges,

le

ntils

and

ber

ries

are

key

elem

ents

in m

y di

et. I

t jus

t m

akes

sen

se!

2026

: Fly

ing

chan

ges

dram

atic

ally

as

the

maj

or

airli

nes

agre

e on

min

imum

ser

vice

effi

cien

cy

stan

dard

s. P

lane

s ca

n no

w o

nly

fly w

ith o

ver

90%

pas

seng

er c

apac

ity; o

ther

wis

e th

ey m

ust

re-s

ched

ule

or p

ostp

one

take

-off

– un

less

so

meo

ne is

will

ing

to p

ay fu

ll-pr

ice

for t

he

vaca

nt s

eats

.

Whe

n I fl

ew to

Ber

lin la

st

mon

th, I

had

to w

ait 1

1 ho

urs

until

the

fligh

t was

fu

lly o

ccup

ied.

Reg

ardl

ess,

it

cost

me

a m

onth

s’s

sal-

ary,

as

avia

tion

taxa

tion

is

stee

per

than

eve

r.

Slo

w to

uris

m a

ctiv

ities

Vaca

tions

are

long

er b

ut

less

freq

uent

2025

: A n

ew s

mar

t grid

sol

utio

n is

an-

noun

ced

that

con

nect

s th

e U

K, G

erm

any

and

Fran

ce’s

ene

rgy

cons

umpt

ion.

The

am

ount

of e

nerg

y us

ed in

hou

seho

lds

drop

s si

gnifi

cant

ly.

2030

: Mos

t of t

he m

ajor

eco

nom

ic p

aper

s ac

know

ledg

e th

at

crad

le-t

o-cr

adle

is th

e m

ost e

ffici

ent p

rodu

ctio

n m

etho

d re

-ga

rdle

ss o

f pro

duct

ion

sect

or o

r mat

eria

ls re

quire

d. It

qui

ckly

re

ache

s al

l par

ts o

f pro

duct

ion

syst

ems.

As

a si

gnifi

cant

pr

opor

tion

of u

sabl

e re

sour

ces

is o

wne

d by

use

rs, t

hey

also

be

com

e pa

rt o

f the

se n

etw

orks

.

2030

: Tha

nks

to in

form

atic

s ap

ps,

educ

atio

nal s

oftw

are

and

onlin

e le

arni

ng n

etw

orks

, peo

ple

are

empo

wer

ed to

mak

e ex

celle

nt ra

-tio

nal c

hoic

es a

nd th

eir d

esire

for

mat

eria

l goo

ds d

eclin

es. m

ater

ial

good

s de

clin

e.

Page 21: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 2

1

“I a

m s

ure

that

from

cl

othi

ng c

are

to fo

od

prep

arat

ion

ever

ythi

ng

is d

one

in o

ur fa

mily

in

the

mos

t sus

tain

able

w

ay. O

ur h

ome

uses

its

sens

ors

to c

ontr

ol e

ve-

ryth

ing

so it

is e

nerg

y ef

ficie

nt.”

Inte

llige

nt a

nd s

mar

t pac

kagi

ng o

f fo

od fo

r tr

ansp

aren

cy, a

war

enes

s an

d le

ss w

aste

.

We

lived

in th

e su

burb

s w

hen

I w

as a

chi

ld a

nd

drov

e ev

eryw

here

. I c

an’t

imag

ine

livin

g so

far

away

an

d ha

ving

so

muc

h sp

ace

at

hom

e no

w. M

y pa

rent

s so

ld th

eir

hous

e se

ven

year

s ag

o an

d no

w li

ve

two

bloc

ks fr

om

us in

a n

ice

one

livin

g ro

om a

part

-m

ent.

Ther

e’s

a de

ntal

clu

b fo

r th

ose

who

wan

t to

lear

n an

d ta

ke

care

of t

heir

teet

h In

my

apar

tmen

t bui

ldin

g.

I go

ther

e ev

ery

mon

th

to le

arn

self-

dent

istr

y.

A n

ew w

aste

m

ine

open

ed

near

by. T

hey

colle

ct w

aste

fr

om o

ld la

ndfil

ls

and

prov

ide

job

oppo

rtun

ities

fo

r th

e lo

cals

.

2034

: Aus

tria

n ch

ildre

n w

ith th

e m

ost p

oten

tial

to b

ecom

e m

embe

rs o

f the

futu

re c

ham

pion

s ar

e id

entifi

ed a

t an

early

age

and

han

d-pi

cked

fo

r fut

ure

trai

ning

, i.e

. the

ir sk

ills

are

impr

oved

in

lear

ning

stu

dios

and

top

scho

ols.

2035

2037

: The

re’s

a re

-allo

catio

n of

non

-pro

duct

ive

leis

ure

time

into

an

oppo

rtun

ity to

lear

n, in

clud

-in

g su

bcon

scio

us le

arni

ng (e

.g. c

ompu

ter

gam

es th

at a

re li

nked

with

the

city

env

iron-

men

t). S

choo

ls th

at h

one

skill

s ar

e es

tabl

ishe

d,

nour

ishi

ng a

nd n

urtu

ring

indi

vidu

al s

kills

.I’m

so

prou

d of

my

daug

hter

. She

’s

so c

urio

us a

bout

her

env

ironm

ent

and

enjo

ys th

e po

ssib

ilitie

s of

the

embe

dded

edu

catio

n ev

eryw

here

. To

be

hone

st, I

enj

oy it

per

sona

lly a

s w

ell.

I lea

rn n

ew th

ings

eve

ry d

ay!C

ontr

ol b

oard

for

hous

ehol

d se

rvic

esG

reen

die

t de

liver

y se

rvic

es

2035

: New

con

cent

ratio

ns o

f R&

D a

nd

prod

uctio

n cl

uste

rs b

ased

aro

und

larg

e fir

ms,

and

clo

sely

link

ed to

one

ano

ther

, em

erge

aro

und

Euro

pe. O

ne o

f the

bes

t ex

ampl

es o

f the

se n

ew c

lust

ers

is lo

cate

d in

Por

tuga

l.

Page 22: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

22 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

The

Euro

pean

Gre

en N

ew D

eal

Tran

spar

ency

get

s th

e pr

ices

righ

t

The

upcy

clin

g ec

onom

y

Lear

ning

, not

ear

ning

The

No-

Was

te W

orld

C

up c

onte

st h

as

been

one

of t

he m

ost

popu

lar

leis

ure

time

activ

i-tie

s in

rec

ent

year

s.

2043

: A h

andf

ul o

f lar

ge fi

rms

dom

inat

e cr

adle

-to-

crad

le b

usi-

ness

. The

se s

uper

-firm

s dr

ive

sust

aina

ble

deve

lopm

ent.

2039

: Pro

duct

ion

busi

ness

es a

re c

ompe

ting

over

righ

ts

to e

xplo

it w

aste

con

cent

ratio

ns, e

.g. t

hat o

f the

Pac

ific

Oce

an. L

arge

pro

duct

ion

entit

ies

enjo

y ec

onom

ies

of

scal

e an

d po

sses

s re

sour

ces

exte

nsiv

e en

ough

to le

ad

larg

e w

aste

min

ing

proc

esse

s.

2042

: Acc

ordi

ng to

the

Euro

Fac

ts S

urve

y, ti

me

spen

t doi

ng p

hysi

cal e

xerc

ise

amon

g yo

ung

peop

le a

nd y

oung

adu

lts is

soa

ring.

Tha

nks

to

educ

atio

n re

form

and

its

new

focu

s on

hea

lth

prom

otio

n, th

ere

are

very

few

you

ng p

eopl

e sm

okin

g an

d ov

eral

l, th

e he

alth

diff

eren

ces

be-

twee

n di

ffere

nt s

ocia

l gro

ups

have

dim

inis

hed.

2040

2040

: Due

to a

shi

ft in

tax

regu

la-

tion,

info

rmat

ion

tran

spar

ency

an

d pu

blic

pre

ssur

e, m

ost o

f the

bu

sine

sses

hav

e tu

rned

into

soc

ial

ente

rpris

es, w

hich

are

ben

efici

al to

th

e en

viro

nmen

t and

soc

iety

.

“My

alum

iniu

m u

sage

is

taxe

d!”

crie

s ou

t a

wom

an in

Den

mar

k as

th

e co

untr

y pr

epar

es

for

taxa

tion

base

d on

nat

ural

res

ourc

e us

age.

A g

roup

of

peop

le g

ets

mar

gin-

alis

ed fr

om s

ocie

ty a

s th

ey fa

il to

ada

pt to

ch

angi

ng c

onsu

mp-

tion

patt

erns

.

I wan

t to

spen

d m

y le

isur

e tim

e do

ing

som

ethi

ng p

rodu

ctiv

e.

I go

to s

choo

ls

for

ever

yone

to h

one

my

skill

s.

Cop

enha

gen

– B

arce

lona

, 4,5

ho

urs!

rea

ds a

n ad

vert

ise-

men

t for

hig

h-sp

eed

trai

nlin

e th

at ju

st o

pene

d in

May

.

2039

: All

arou

nd E

urop

e, te

chno

logi

cal b

reak

thro

ughs

allo

w

info

rmat

ion

to c

ircul

ate

with

out b

arrie

rs. T

he d

evel

opm

ent

of s

tock

s of

nat

ural

reso

urce

s ca

n be

trac

ked

in re

al ti

me

by e

very

one.

Res

ourc

e pr

ices

incr

ease

han

d in

han

d w

ith

decr

easi

ng s

tock

s, fu

rthe

r enc

oura

ging

the

smar

t use

of

reso

urce

s. T

hank

s to

the

tran

spar

ent i

nfor

mat

ion,

spe

cula

tion

on n

atur

al re

sour

ces

in th

e fin

ance

sec

tor d

ecre

ases

.

ID-D

NA

Car

ds p

erso

nalis

e m

edic

ine

for

indi

vidu

als.

Eve

rybo

dy h

as a

car

d th

at

cont

ains

thei

r ge

netic

map

, bio

logi

cal

data

, as

wel

l as

info

rmat

ion

abou

t the

ir di

et a

nd h

abits

, in

orde

r to

pro

vide

all

info

rmat

ion

nece

ssar

y fo

r do

ctor

s an

d ot

her

care

give

rs to

pro

vide

per

sona

lised

he

alin

g so

lutio

ns.

Per

sona

l rap

id tr

ansi

t ra

ils h

ave

revo

lutio

n-is

ed th

e w

ay w

e tr

avel

he

re in

Ulm

. The

re is

a

two

min

ute

wal

k to

th

e st

op w

here

the

pre-

rout

ed c

art a

wai

ts m

e. I

can

reac

h th

e ra

ilway

sta

tion

in s

ix

min

utes

. We

just

got

rid

of t

he

fam

ily c

ar a

nd o

ur li

ves

are

now

m

uch

easi

er. P

erso

nal w

ater

acc

ount

s m

ake

sure

that

the

wat

er I

use

for

show

erin

g al

way

s st

ays

at a

roun

d 38

deg

rees

.

Page 23: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 2

3

2050

: Ove

r 2/3

of t

he p

opul

atio

n in

Eur

opea

n co

untr

ies

spen

d at

leas

t 10

hour

s a

wee

k of

th

eir f

ree

time

in le

arni

ng in

stitu

tions

in o

rder

to

net

wor

k w

ith th

eir fi

eld’

s su

stai

nabi

lity

elite

.

2049

: A g

loba

l res

earc

h an

d kn

owle

dge

bank

cr

eate

s st

anda

rds

for a

ll na

tiona

l and

loca

l le

vel p

oliti

cal d

ecis

ion-

mak

ing.

It g

uara

ntee

s a

scie

ntifi

c ba

sis

for a

ll go

vern

men

t act

ion,

and

ca

n be

use

d to

vet

o an

y de

cisi

on th

at is

eco

-no

mic

ally

, eco

logi

cally

or s

ocia

lly ir

resp

onsi

ble.

2047

: Acc

ess

to w

aste

bec

omes

one

of t

he k

ey d

eter

-m

inan

ts o

f suc

cess

for c

ompa

nies

. The

mos

t val

uabl

e re

sour

ces

extr

acte

d fro

m w

aste

, e.g

. rar

e ea

rth

met

als,

are

am

ong

the

item

s th

at c

ircul

ate

glob

ally

.

2

045

2

05

0

“…In

ord

er to

live

eco

logi

cally

an

d ec

onom

ical

ly, I

hav

e ch

o-se

n th

e ‘e

nerg

y bu

dget

car

d’ o

f m

aste

r S

hash

ang

Shr

iniv

adu.

I w

ill fo

llow

his

trai

ning

so

that

my

ecol

ogic

al fo

otpr

int b

e-co

mes

as

light

as

his,

and

I w

ill

save

mon

ey w

hile

doi

ng s

o.”

My

hom

etow

n is

rat

her

segr

egat

ed n

owa-

days

as

Sup

er C

ham

pion

gro

ups

form

thei

r ow

n su

burb

s. T

hey

don’

t hav

e m

ore

mat

e-ria

l wea

lth th

an o

ther

s as

they

’re

mor

e aw

are

of s

usta

inab

ility

. Ins

tead

, the

y ha

ve

mor

e po

litic

al a

nd e

cono

mic

pow

er a

nd

bett

er e

duca

tion.

Glo

bal e

nerg

y

cons

umpt

ion

targ

et

fixed

by

user

I ret

urne

d m

y ol

d sh

oes

to th

e sh

oe

stor

e an

d go

t my

stor

e cr

edit

retu

rned

by

do-

ing

so. I

can

now

get

br

and

new

sho

es a

nd

I kno

w th

at it

’s g

reat

fo

r th

e en

viro

nmen

t as

wel

l!

Page 24: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Mob

ility

(dai

ly a

nd to

uris

m)

11 0

00 k

g

Hou

sing

: bui

ldin

g

2400

kg

Pro

duct

co

nsum

ptio

n 26

00 k

g

Leis

ure

time

15

00 k

g

Food

73

00 k

g

Hou

sing

: el

ectr

icity

33

00 k

g

Oth

ers

900

kg

24 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Gat

ekee

pers

for l

ifest

yle

chan

ges

Man

ufac

turi

ng a

nd

reta

il co

mpa

nies

…pr

ovid

e tr

ansp

aren

t life

cycl

e da

ta o

n th

eir

prod

ucts

.

New

dig

ital s

ervi

ce

prov

ider

s…

help

con

sum

ers

to tr

ansl

ate

open

life

cycl

e an

d fo

otpr

int d

ata

into

sm

art c

onsu

mer

cho

ices

.

Sup

er C

ham

pion

le

ad u

ser

grou

p…

chan

ge th

e st

atus

sys

tem

be

hind

con

sum

er c

ultu

re a

nd

spre

ad b

est p

ract

ices

on

sust

aina

ble

lifes

tyle

s.

Urb

an p

lann

ers

…cr

eate

urb

an e

nviro

n-m

ents

that

att

ract

peo

ple

and

enab

le d

ense

, sus

-ta

inab

le li

ving

.

Die

tary

exp

erts

…pr

ovid

e de

taile

d in

form

a-tio

n on

nut

ritio

n, re

sour

ce

and

cost

-effe

ctiv

e di

ets.

Six

-pac

k of

mos

t infl

uent

ial l

ifest

yle

trigg

ers

1.

Tran

spar

ent p

rodu

ct d

ata

allo

ws

peop

le to

und

erst

and

the

envi

ronm

enta

l cos

t of t

heir

pers

onal

co

nsum

er c

hoic

es a

nd th

eir o

vera

ll lif

esty

le. C

ompa

ring

the

sust

aina

bilit

y of

cho

ices

of f

ood,

hou

s-in

g, m

obili

ty a

nd c

onsu

mer

goo

ds in

205

0 is

as

easy

as

com

parin

g pr

ices

was

in 2

012.

2.

Roa

d pr

icin

g an

d th

e ov

eral

l ris

e of

tran

spor

tatio

n co

sts

chan

ge h

ousi

ng p

refe

renc

es. P

eopl

e pr

efer

sho

rt c

omm

utin

g di

stan

ces,

wel

l-ser

vice

d ne

ighb

ourh

oods

and

a b

ette

r acc

ess

to s

paci

ous-

ness

.

3.

Impr

oved

des

ign

of p

ublic

spa

ces

and

flats

dra

ws

peop

le to

den

sely

pop

ulat

ed a

reas

. In

all c

oun-

trie

s, a

reas

aro

und

city

cen

tres

turn

into

the

mos

t des

irabl

e pl

aces

to li

ve. P

eopl

e ar

e w

illin

g to

tr

ade

off a

spa

ciou

s dw

ellin

g fo

r the

sta

tus

and

com

fort

pro

vide

d by

a fl

at in

a c

entr

al lo

catio

n.

4.

New

die

tary

alte

rnat

ives

em

erge

from

a c

ombi

natio

n of

risi

ng fo

od p

rices

and

incr

ease

d he

alth

co

nsci

ousn

ess.

Med

ia, p

rimar

y ed

ucat

ion

and

cate

ring

com

pani

es h

elp

envi

ronm

enta

lly ra

tiona

l di

ets

beco

me

a m

ains

trea

m li

fest

yle

optio

n.

5.

App

s fo

r per

sona

l inf

orm

atic

s, e

duca

tiona

l sof

twar

e, o

nlin

e le

arni

ng n

etw

orks

and

a d

iver

sifie

d ed

ucat

iona

l ser

vice

s se

ctor

bec

ome

attr

activ

e an

d in

fluen

ce p

eopl

e’s

spen

ding

. As

a re

sult,

ther

e is

less

des

ire fo

r mat

eria

l goo

ds, a

s m

ore

peop

le h

ave

exce

llent

ski

lls in

mak

ing

ratio

nal c

hoic

es.

6.

New

upc

yclin

g ap

proa

ches

to c

onsu

mer

goo

ds h

ave

chan

ged

prod

uct l

ifecy

cles

. All

mat

eria

l go

ods

are

sold

with

an

addi

tiona

l dep

osit

on th

eir m

ater

ial r

esou

rces

, whi

ch e

ncou

rage

s pe

ople

to

retu

rn u

sed

mat

eria

ls to

the

reta

iler.

The

aver

age

mat

eria

l foo

tpri

nt o

f a E

urop

ean

in

2050

in t

he S

ingu

lar

Sup

er C

ham

pion

s sc

enar

io

(800

0 kg

per

per

son

in a

yea

r) c

ompa

red

to t

he

aver

age

mat

eria

l foo

tpri

nt in

200

7 (2

9 00

0 kg

).

Mob

ility

(d

aily

and

tour

ism

) 28

00 k

g

Food

25

00 k

g

Hou

sing

: bu

ildin

g 13

00 k

g

Oth

ers

300

kg Hou

sing

: el

ectr

icity

30

0 kg

Pro

duct

co

nsum

ptio

n 50

0 kg

Leis

ure

time

300

kg

Page 25: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 2

5

Crit

ical

cha

lleng

es a

nd s

olut

ions

in

the

scen

ario

Sin

gula

r Sup

er C

ham

pion

sQ

1.

How

to

do a

way

with

uns

usta

inab

le s

tatu

s sy

mbo

ls?

1.

A p

rice

mec

hani

sm in

clud

es a

nd q

uant

ifies

eve

ryth

ing:

reso

urce

use

, po

llutio

n, h

ealth

, bio

dive

rsity

, etc

. It i

s a

top

mot

ivat

or o

f beh

avio

ur a

nd

influ

ence

s lif

esty

les.

2.

Low

-cos

t, lo

w-im

pact

opt

ions

in te

rms

of b

oth

envi

ronm

ent a

nd h

ealth

ha

ve b

ecom

e th

e so

cial

nor

m in

food

and

leis

ure

activ

ities

. Hea

lthy

mo-

bilit

y pa

tter

ns a

re a

maj

or p

art o

f dai

ly e

xerc

ise.

Impr

oved

infr

astr

uctu

re,

good

ava

ilabi

lity

and

com

petit

ive

pric

es h

ave

mad

e it

easy

for p

eopl

e to

ch

oose

hea

lthy

optio

ns.

Q2.

H

ow t

o m

anag

e in

crea

sed

urba

n co

ncen

trat

ion

whi

le

de

crea

sing

res

ourc

e us

e?

1.

EU-w

ide

polic

y in

cent

ives

and

risi

ng e

nerg

y pr

ices

hav

e m

ade

zero

en-

ergy

bui

ldin

g th

e no

rm. P

eopl

e ar

e pe

rsua

ded

to re

trofi

t the

ir ho

mes

with

ta

x in

cent

ives

and

pro

lifer

atio

n of

Do-

it-Yo

urse

lf re

trofi

t kits

.

2.

Bui

ldin

gs a

nd in

fras

truc

ture

whi

ch a

re n

ot u

sed

any

mor

e (d

ue to

in-

crea

sed

ener

gy a

nd m

obili

ty c

osts

) are

upc

ycle

d in

to n

ew, h

ighl

y ef

ficie

nt

and

dens

e ur

ban

cent

res.

Peo

ple

are

ther

efor

e in

cent

ivis

ed to

recy

cle

all t

he m

ater

ial f

rom

str

uctu

res

they

dec

onst

ruct

whi

le re

furb

ishi

ng th

eir

hom

es.

3.

Pro

gres

sive

pro

pert

y ta

xes

and

subs

idie

s fo

r con

stru

ctio

n of

sm

all fl

ats

prov

ide

ince

ntiv

es fo

r peo

ple

to re

duce

thei

r dom

estic

spa

ce. T

his

lead

s to

incr

ease

d le

isur

e ac

tivity

out

side

the

hom

e.

4.

The

shift

in in

nova

tion

and

urba

n in

fras

truc

ture

pol

icy

from

car

traf

fic to

sm

art m

obili

ty in

clud

ing

PR

T sy

stem

s. T

hese

new

mob

ility

opt

ions

are

by

far t

he m

ost c

onve

nien

t one

s in

den

se u

rban

are

as w

ith h

igh

lifes

tyle

st

atus

.

5.

Pric

es re

duce

bot

h lo

ng-

and

shor

t-di

stan

ce tr

avel

ling.

Q3.

H

ow t

o m

anag

e th

e co

nsum

ptio

n of

res

ourc

es in

ter

ms

of p

ower

pro

duct

ion

and

ICT

prod

uctio

n?

1.

Due

to a

dopt

ion

of ta

x in

cent

ives

, all

the

appl

ianc

es a

nd c

onst

ruct

ion

mat

eria

l pro

duct

s av

aila

ble

in th

e m

arke

ts a

re h

ighl

y en

ergy

and

reso

urce

ef

ficie

nt. A

s a

resu

lt, p

eopl

e ha

ve in

crea

sed

the

ener

gy a

nd re

sour

ce e

f-fic

ienc

y of

thei

r hom

es, a

pplic

atio

ns a

nd m

obili

ty p

atte

rns.

2.

Hig

hly

reso

urce

-effi

cien

t win

d an

d so

lar p

ower

pro

duct

ion

dom

inat

es e

n-er

gy p

rodu

ctio

n as

the

old

ener

gy m

odes

hav

e di

sapp

eare

d du

e to

hea

vy

taxa

tion

and

phas

ing

out o

f sub

sidi

es.

3.

Inno

vatio

n po

licy

acce

lera

tes

the

use

of a

bund

ant i

nste

ad o

f sca

rce

mat

eria

ls fo

r IC

T in

com

bina

tion

with

sop

hist

icat

ed re

cycl

ing.

Pric

ing

mot

ivat

es p

eopl

e to

ado

pt n

ew in

nova

tive

solu

tions

.

4.

Extr

emel

y ef

ficie

nt IC

T so

lutio

ns (s

enso

rs, c

entr

aliz

ed c

ompu

ting,

clo

ud

farm

s) h

ave

enab

led

peop

le to

real

ise

pers

onal

opt

imis

atio

n. O

ptim

isat

ion

of c

onsu

mpt

ion

leve

ls is

als

o a

sour

ce o

f soc

ial a

nd p

rofe

ssio

nal r

ewar

d.

Gov

erni

ng

the

Com

mon

s

Page 26: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

26 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Gov

erni

ng

the

Com

mon

s

You

can

man

ufac

ture

pro

duct

s ba

sed

on y

our

very

ow

n de

sign

at t

he n

eare

st c

orne

r sho

p! T

he

rise

of 3

D p

rinte

rs m

ade

it po

ssib

le fo

r the

firs

t tim

e fo

r peo

ple

to c

ontr

ol th

eir o

wn

prod

uctio

n an

d co

nsum

ptio

n. In

201

5, 3

D te

chno

logy

was

se

en a

s so

met

hing

of a

nic

he, b

ut fr

om th

e ea

rly

2030

s it

has

alte

red

lifes

tyle

s, a

nd m

any

busi

-ne

sses

per

man

ently

. The

driv

ers

of m

ass

con-

sum

ptio

n in

the

latt

er h

alf o

f the

20t

h ce

ntur

y ar

e re

plac

ed b

y a

cultu

re o

f “se

lf-cr

eatio

n” a

ssis

ted

by 3

D p

rinte

rs a

nd o

ther

sim

ilar t

ools

. It o

ffers

en

dles

s po

ssib

ilitie

s to

mou

ld a

nd re

-cre

ate

one’

s id

entit

y. P

eopl

e gr

ow m

ore

awar

e of

wha

t is

thei

r ow

n, e

ither

pur

chas

ing

care

fully

sel

ecte

d ite

ms

they

like

or c

onst

antly

mol

ding

the

sam

e m

ater

ial

into

new

ver

sion

s of

goo

ds. N

ew fo

rms

of d

o-it-

your

self

man

ufac

turin

g w

ould

not

be

poss

ible

w

ithou

t the

rich

pre

senc

e of

the

digi

tal s

pace

.

The

entir

e bu

ilt e

nviro

nmen

t can

be

seen

thro

ugh

two

sepa

rate

laye

rs, a

dig

ital a

nd a

n ac

tual

, ph

ysic

al o

ne. B

illio

ns o

f mic

roch

ips

embe

dded

in

mac

hine

s, w

alls

and

pav

emen

t brin

g a

new

type

of

dat

a to

use

rs a

nd c

reat

e ne

w o

ppor

tuni

ties

to

live

smar

t, su

stai

nabl

e lif

esty

les

thro

ugh

pow

erfu

l fe

edba

ck m

echa

nism

s. S

ocia

l net

wor

ks c

ontin

ue

to g

ain

pow

er a

nd v

ery

soon

trad

ition

al in

stitu

-tio

ns th

at a

re o

utsi

de o

f mea

ning

ful n

etw

orks

ne

arly

van

ish

from

sig

ht fo

r man

y pe

ople

.

In th

e w

orld

of G

over

ning

the

Com

mon

s, p

eopl

e ha

ve fo

und

new

rela

tions

hips

with

thei

r pee

rs

both

in v

irtua

l and

mat

eria

l rea

lity.

Thi

s of

fers

im

men

se o

ppor

tuni

ties

for d

iffer

ent t

ypes

of

mea

ning

ful i

nter

actio

n, b

oth

econ

omic

and

non

-ec

onom

ic a

like.

Peo

ple

star

t to

look

for m

ore

Alte

rnat

ive

Sus

tain

able

S

ocie

ty 2

: Sup

porti

ng 8

000

kg

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es

Gov

erni

ng th

e C

omm

ons

is a

sce

nario

mos

tly

in d

igita

l rea

lity

that

hel

ps p

eopl

e to

bre

ak fr

ee

from

man

y cu

ltura

l con

stra

ints

and

, eve

ntua

lly,

to r

each

sus

tain

abili

ty. U

biqu

itous

com

putin

g en

able

s th

e sm

art u

se o

f res

ourc

es a

nd, a

t the

sa

me

time,

red

irect

s pe

ople

’s b

ehav

iour

and

fo

cus

of a

tten

tion

from

mat

eria

l con

sum

ptio

n an

d th

eir

phys

ical

sur

roun

ding

s to

inte

ract

ion

in

the

digi

tal r

ealm

. Peo

ple

aban

don

man

y in

stitu

-tio

ns o

f the

20t

h ce

ntur

y, li

bera

te th

emse

lves

in

orde

r to

lead

mor

e m

eani

ngfu

l liv

es a

nd e

ngag

e in

new

form

s of

col

labo

ratio

n.

mea

ning

in jo

bs a

nd li

fe in

gen

eral

. Lea

rnin

g ne

w

skill

s is

eas

y w

ith a

ll of

the

info

rmat

ion,

dig

itally

as

sist

ed tr

aini

ng to

ols

and

peer

sup

port

. Thi

s gi

ves

rise

to a

new

kin

d of

ent

repr

eneu

rshi

p in

w

hich

the

next

gen

erat

ion

star

ts to

rede

fine

thei

r ex

pert

ise

and

sour

ce o

f mot

ivat

ion.

Mul

ti-pr

ofes

sion

al s

elf-

empl

oym

ent h

as re

plac

ed

a st

eady

inco

me

and

empl

oym

ent i

n a

com

pany

or

pub

lic in

stitu

tion:

The

pee

r-to

-pee

r (P

2P) s

er-

vice

eco

nom

y ha

s re

plac

ed b

ig c

orpo

ratio

ns a

nd

thei

r offe

rings

. New

mod

els

of w

ork

and

wel

fare

ha

ve b

een

form

ed.

Onc

e pe

ople

sta

rted

see

ing

the

colle

ctiv

e po

ten-

tial o

f the

new

com

bina

tion

of h

ighl

y sk

illed

sel

f-st

arte

rs w

ith d

igita

l com

mun

icat

ion,

new

pol

itica

l m

ovem

ents

sta

rted

to g

ain

pow

er. N

etw

orks

of

peop

le w

ith e

nthu

sias

m to

war

ds a

sha

red

issu

e ga

ther

ed th

eir s

kills

and

reso

urce

s an

d di

rect

ed

thei

r effo

rts

to e

xper

imen

ting

with

new

sol

utio

ns,

inst

ead

of ju

st c

ampa

igni

ng fo

r cha

nge

thro

ugh

polit

ical

str

uctu

res.

Expe

rimen

ting

with

the

help

of t

hous

ands

of

volu

ntee

rs tu

rned

out

to h

ave

pers

uasi

ve p

ower

in

the

field

of p

oliti

cs. T

here

fore

, ”in

tere

st n

et-

wor

ks”,

com

bini

ng p

olic

y w

ith d

oing

thin

gs g

rad-

ually

, rep

lace

d tr

aditi

onal

par

ties

as p

ower

hous

es

of re

pres

enta

tive

dem

ocra

cy. A

s a

resu

lt of

this

ne

w c

olla

bora

tion

and

tool

s, m

any

part

s of

the

polit

ical

age

nda

are

tota

lly re

form

ed a

nd p

oliti

cal

part

icip

atio

n is

bro

ught

bac

k in

to p

eopl

es’ d

aily

liv

es. T

his

type

of ”

wik

idem

ocra

cy”

has

revi

ved

trus

t in

polit

ics

and

its c

apab

ility

of c

hang

ing

soci

ety

tow

ards

pos

itive

soc

ial c

hang

e.

Sin

gula

r

Sup

er C

ham

pion

s

Loca

l Loo

ps

Gov

erni

ng

the

Com

mon

s

Em

path

etic

C

omm

uniti

es

Pan

dem

ic te

chno

logy

Ende

mic

tech

nolo

gy

Human-centrism

Meritocracy

Page 27: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 2

7

How

are

sus

tain

able

lif

esty

les

achi

eved

?

The

tran

sitio

n to

peo

ple-

pow

er th

roug

h di

ffere

nt

netw

orks

, mod

els

of w

ikid

emoc

racy

and

ubi

qui-

tous

tech

nolo

gy a

re b

ecom

ing

part

of e

very

day

life,

alte

ring

beha

viou

r tow

ards

mor

e su

stai

nabl

e lif

esty

les

in th

e 21

st c

entu

ry.

The

impa

cts

of u

biqu

itous

tech

nolo

gy c

ontin

ue to

sh

ape

peop

le’s

day

-to-

day

prac

tices

eve

n m

ore

stro

ngly

than

man

y th

ough

t in

the

early

200

0s.

Diff

eren

t app

licat

ions

and

per

sona

l ser

vice

s in

flu-

ence

life

styl

e de

cisi

ons,

con

sum

er c

hoic

es a

nd

mot

ivat

e be

havi

our c

hang

e th

at s

uppo

rts

the

8

000

kg g

oals

. Tak

e m

obili

ty fo

r ins

tanc

e –

once

pe

rson

aliz

ed d

igita

l ser

vice

s ar

e in

pla

ce, c

o-us

ing

of c

ars

and

publ

ic tr

ansi

t sta

rts

to w

ork,

ba

sed

on w

hat i

s m

ost p

ract

ical

for i

ts u

sers

.

Ener

gy e

ffici

ent h

ousi

ng b

ecam

e th

e no

rm in

the

early

202

0s a

s a

new

way

to c

olle

ct a

nd m

ine

data

. Ope

n en

ergy

con

sum

ptio

n da

ta g

ave

a bi

g bo

ost t

o re

trofi

t mar

kets

. Com

pani

es c

ould

eas

-ily

iden

tify

inha

bita

nts

with

sig

nific

ant p

oten

tial

for e

ffici

ency

gai

ns a

nd s

avin

gs. H

omes

turn

ed

into

sm

art s

yste

ms

with

eas

y to

use

gad

gets

to

cont

rol e

nerg

y co

nsum

ptio

n fro

m li

ghtin

g, h

eat-

ing,

use

of a

pplia

nces

and

eve

n th

e co

nten

ts o

f th

e fr

idge

. Ubi

quito

us te

chno

logy

sta

rted

pro

vid-

ing

inst

ant f

eedb

ack

loop

s th

at h

elpe

d to

cha

nge

beha

viou

ral c

hoic

es to

war

ds o

nes

that

sup

port

8

000

kg s

usta

inab

le li

fest

yles

.

As

the

virt

ual e

nviro

nmen

t is

mor

e an

d m

ore

prom

inen

t, ph

ysic

al c

onsu

mpt

ion

decr

ease

s si

g-

nific

antly

. Urb

an s

pace

is fr

eed

out o

f old

unu

sed

offic

es a

nd re

mot

e w

ork

beco

mes

a m

ains

trea

m

alte

rnat

ive.

Infr

astr

uctu

re b

ecom

es a

clo

sed

loop

sy

stem

com

bine

d w

ith s

ervi

ces

take

n ov

er b

y th

e vi

rtua

l wor

ld. A

ugm

ente

d re

ality

ser

vice

s, a

long

w

ith 3

D p

rinte

rs, m

ake

cons

umpt

ion

mor

e su

s-ta

inab

le th

roug

h th

e pe

rson

alis

atio

n an

d di

gita

li-sa

tion

of li

fest

yles

.

Wha

t is

life

like

in G

over

ning

the

Com

mon

s?W

hat

chan

ges

betw

een

2012

and

205

0?

Edu

catio

nTh

e m

ain

focu

s of

edu

catio

n is

on

Pee

r-to

-Pee

r ski

lls s

harin

g. L

earn

ing

by d

oing

is e

mph

asiz

ed, i

n ite

rativ

e w

ays.

Pan

dem

ic te

chno

l-og

y en

able

s in

stan

t fee

dbac

k lo

ops,

whi

ch a

ccel

erat

e sh

arin

g of

kno

wle

dge.

Foc

us o

n in

form

al e

duca

tion

whe

re c

lass

room

s do

n’t

exis

t.

Wor

kP

eopl

e’s

sour

ces

of in

com

e ha

ve fr

agm

ente

d. C

ompr

ehen

sive

use

of s

kills

are

val

ued.

Eve

ryon

e ha

s so

met

hing

to o

ffer t

o so

ciet

y.K

ey w

ords

des

crib

ing

wor

k in

clud

e m

icro

-tas

ks, c

row

dsou

rcin

g an

d be

ing

usef

ul to

one

’s p

eers

.

City

Citi

es a

re b

ased

on

alre

ady

exis

ting

infr

astr

uctu

re. O

ffice

and

sch

ool b

uild

ings

hav

e be

en c

onve

rted

into

flat

s an

d pu

blic

spa

ces.

U

rban

exp

erie

nces

are

enr

iche

d by

aug

men

ted

real

ity. P

eopl

e fin

d pe

rson

aliz

ed s

olut

ions

to fu

lfil t

heir

need

s an

d as

pira

tions

on

both

th

e ph

ysic

al a

nd v

irtua

l lay

ers.

Hea

lthP

eer-

to-P

eer n

etw

ork

supp

ort i

s ch

arac

teris

tic o

f bot

h pr

even

tativ

e an

d re

activ

e he

alth

car

e. P

ublic

fund

ing

is p

rovi

ded

for h

ealth

-ca

re c

oope

rativ

es. A

wid

e va

riety

of h

ealth

y lif

esty

les

have

bec

ome

rout

iniz

ed. D

igita

l fee

dbac

k to

ols

are

used

by

ever

yone

.

Livi

ngP

eopl

e liv

e in

sm

all fl

ats

and

wor

k in

new

offi

ce lo

fts. T

he d

igita

l lay

er is

key

to p

rovi

de p

eopl

e w

ith q

ualit

y in

thei

r liv

es.

Sm

art h

omes

, aus

tere

furn

iture

and

dig

ital s

ervi

ces

char

acte

rize

dom

estic

ity.

Food

Food

pro

duct

ion

and

dist

ribut

ion

are

man

aged

by

glob

al fo

od s

yste

ms

and

smar

t foo

d st

orag

e m

echa

nism

s ar

e in

pla

ce.

A m

ultit

ude

of d

iets

are

offe

red

and

ener

gy in

take

is re

duce

d. V

eget

able

cho

ices

and

syn

thet

ic m

eats

form

diff

eren

tiatio

ns in

die

ts.

Mob

ility

Mob

ility

is g

reat

ly re

duce

d by

the

use

of d

igita

l too

ls. C

omm

utin

g is

min

imiz

ed a

nd th

e co

nstr

uctio

n of

new

traf

fic in

fras

truc

ture

has

be

com

e un

nece

ssar

y. S

mar

t pub

lic tr

ansi

t and

car

and

ride

sha

ring

are

the

mai

n fo

rms

of tr

ansp

ort.

Con

sum

ing

3D-p

rintin

g pe

rson

aliz

es c

onsu

mpt

ion.

Mat

eria

l con

sum

ptio

n is

redu

ced

by u

sing

mod

ular

app

lianc

es, w

hich

ena

ble

do-it

-you

rsel

f (D

IY) r

epai

r and

upg

rade

of p

rodu

cts.

Hig

h de

gree

s of

app

lianc

e pe

rson

aliz

atio

n, v

irtua

l con

sum

ptio

n an

d re

cycl

able

gen

eric

mat

eri-

als

form

new

des

ign

and

prod

ucer

cul

ture

s, h

elpi

ng to

redu

ce th

e ov

eral

l num

ber o

f app

lianc

es.

Eco

nom

yM

icro

-tas

ks c

hara

cter

ize

econ

omic

org

aniz

atio

n. N

ew b

usin

esse

s ar

e cr

eate

d in

and

by

data

-ric

h en

viro

nmen

ts. O

pen

sour

ce, o

pen

data

and

free

dis

trib

utio

n of

info

rmat

ion

driv

e ne

w in

nova

tion.

Per

sona

l opt

imiz

atio

n, D

IY, p

eer s

ervi

ces

and

man

ufac

turin

g ar

e dr

iv-

ers

of th

e ne

w e

cono

my.

Sen

se o

f se

curi

tyS

ense

of s

ecur

ity is

hei

ghte

ned

by m

embe

rshi

p in

Pee

r-to

-Pee

r com

mun

ities

. Dem

ocra

tized

dat

a em

pow

ers

peop

le. E

asy

acce

ss to

se

rvic

es, p

rodu

cts

and

glob

al k

now

ledg

e-ba

ses

prom

ote

equa

lity.

Per

sona

lized

app

lianc

es a

nd d

irect

par

ticip

atio

n in

crea

se a

sen

se

of b

elon

ging

and

sec

urity

.

Leis

ure

time

Leis

ure

time

is fo

rmed

aro

und

a m

ultit

ude

of d

igita

l int

erac

tions

. Hom

e co

nsum

ptio

n, h

igh

qual

ity h

ouse

hold

cap

abili

ties

and

digi

tal

crow

d ex

perie

nces

are

the

mai

n w

ays

of s

pend

ing

free

time.

Gov

erni

ng th

e C

omm

ons

scen

ario

na

rrat

ive

– ho

w d

id it

all

happ

en?

»Th

e 3r

d in

dust

rial r

evol

utio

n »

Ubi

tech

eco

nom

y »

Bet

ter w

ork

crea

tes

wel

l-bei

ng »

Wik

idem

ocra

cy

Thes

e dr

iver

s ar

e de

pict

ed a

s ev

ents

on

the

timel

ine.

Page 28: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

28 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

The

3rd

indu

stria

l rev

olut

ion

Ubi

tech

eco

nom

y

Bet

ter w

ork

crea

tes

wel

l-bei

ng

Wik

idem

ocra

cy

2014

: Soc

ial m

edia

dom

inat

es g

loba

l nar

rativ

es. P

eer-

prod

uced

con

tent

sta

rts

to

emer

ge in

the

glob

al m

edia

. The

eve

nts

of th

e 20

11 A

rab

Spr

ing

high

light

the

grow

-in

g im

port

ance

of a

cces

sibl

e gl

obal

info

rmat

ion

netw

orks

. Peo

ple

get i

ncre

asin

gly

accl

imat

ed to

the

idea

of e

xist

ing

onlin

e an

d bu

ildin

g th

eir p

erso

nal i

dent

ity th

roug

h vi

rtua

l mea

ns. M

edia

mod

erat

ed re

ality

hits

new

hei

ghts

as

the

inte

rnet

sta

rts

to

defin

e ev

eryd

ay li

fe a

nd c

onne

ct c

omm

uniti

es w

orld

wid

e, p

rodu

cing

mor

e in

tere

st-

base

d so

cial

gro

ups

that

onl

y ev

er c

onne

ct in

the

virt

ual r

ealm

.

2013

: Boy

cott

s of

pol

itics

taki

ng w

orld

-w

ide

help

tack

le c

limat

e ch

ange

. Glo

bal

trea

ties

are

out o

f rea

ch, w

hich

driv

es

peop

le to

exp

ress

thei

r fru

stra

tion

with

go

vern

men

ts’ a

nd c

orpo

ratio

ns’ i

nabi

lity

to g

enui

nely

inte

rven

e in

the

incr

easi

ngly

ap

pare

nt e

ffect

s of

clim

ate

chan

ge a

nd

risin

g re

sour

ce p

rices

.

2015

: The

cris

es th

at s

tart

ed in

200

8 ev

entu

ally

ch

ange

s pr

oduc

tion

stru

ctur

es a

nd p

eopl

e’s

wor

king

pa

tter

ns, e

spec

ially

in m

any

Euro

pean

cou

ntrie

s.

Few

er a

nd fe

wer

peo

ple

wor

k pe

rman

ently

for o

ne

com

pany

. Div

ersi

ficat

ion

in w

ork

patt

erns

incr

ease

s.

2016

: Com

pani

es p

rom

otin

g su

stai

nabi

lity

begi

n to

do

min

ate

the

mar

kets

: Sev

eral

tech

nolo

gy c

ompa

-ni

es in

trod

uce

Gre

en E

arth

pol

icie

s an

d su

stai

nabi

lity

inde

xes,

as

they

are

see

n as

as

the

only

way

to g

aina

a

posi

tion

as m

arke

t lea

der.

2017

: The

use

of m

esh

netw

orks

(com

mun

ity

data

sys

tem

s) is

spr

eadi

ng to

recy

clin

g an

d gr

een

“int

eres

t gro

ups”

. Ini

tially

thes

e su

b-ne

twor

ks w

ere

deve

lope

d in

Liv

ing

Labs

and

w

ere

used

by

the

anti-

corp

orat

e ac

tivis

ts o

f th

e 20

10s

econ

omic

dow

ntur

n.

2015

: The

firs

t 3D

prin

ters

for t

he m

ass

mar

ket a

rriv

e. A

t firs

t, co

nsum

ers

have

to

buy

spe

cific

ally

pac

ked

mat

eria

ls fo

r th

e pr

inte

rs to

wor

k. T

hey

are

insp

ired

by

wor

k at

MIT

’s F

ab L

abs.

Soo

n co

nsum

ers

star

t to

com

e up

with

thei

r ow

n so

lutio

ns.

2017

: The

Chr

istm

as m

arke

ts s

ee a

flur

ry o

f exc

item

ent o

ver 3

D p

rintin

g.

2017

: A E

urop

e-w

ide

stud

y re

veal

s th

at s

us-

tain

abili

ty a

nd e

thic

s ar

e th

e m

ain

mot

ivat

iona

l dr

iver

s fo

r wor

kers

.

2018

: Tha

nks

to c

row

d-so

urci

ng, w

e kn

ow

that

the

econ

omic

impa

ct o

f nea

rly e

very

-th

ing:

Eco

pidi

a is

cre

ated

. Eve

ntua

lly th

is

tran

sfor

ms

into

GEK

S, t

he G

loba

l Exc

hang

e an

d K

now

ledg

e S

yste

m, a

tool

that

con

-ne

cts

info

rmat

ion

and

help

s su

ppor

t sus

-ta

inab

ility

wor

ldw

ide.

2018

: Cus

tom

ised

3D

prin

ters

that

can

us

e re

cycl

ed m

ater

ials

sta

rt to

dom

inat

e th

e m

arke

ts a

nd m

ore

trad

ition

al c

om-

pani

es s

trug

gle

to c

ompe

te w

ith g

oods

pr

oduc

ed a

t hom

e.

2015

: A g

loba

l net

wor

k of

ene

rgy-

cons

ciou

s co

nsum

ers

star

ts o

penl

y us

ing

elec

tric

car

s, s

mar

t con

sum

ptio

n so

lutio

ns a

nd to

mon

itor t

heir

pers

onal

ev

eryd

ay c

limat

e im

pact

.The

se e

arly

ad

opte

rs h

elp

crea

te g

row

ing

plat

form

s fo

r em

ergi

ng te

chno

logi

es a

nd m

omen

-tu

m fo

r sup

port

ive

polic

ies.

2019

: Com

pani

es h

ave

embr

aced

sus

tain

-ab

le p

ract

ices

in o

rder

to in

crea

se e

mpl

oy-

ee m

otiv

atio

n. S

tep

by s

tep

this

lead

s to

a

beha

viou

r cha

nge

in p

eopl

es’ l

ives

as

wel

l. W

ork

and

hom

e be

havi

ours

sta

rt to

ove

rlap

with

eac

h ot

her.

2019

: Ear

th

trea

ty b

y U

N: n

atio

nal

dem

oc-

racy

has

to

resp

ect t

he

limits

of t

he

eart

h.

2015

2

02

0

2

025

My

son

neve

r bu

ys

anyt

hing

that

is m

ass-

prod

uced

. He

wan

ts

to c

usto

mis

e it

all b

y hi

mse

lf. I

thin

k al

l of

his

clot

hes

are

cust

om

mad

e.

“I fo

und

your

flat

to b

e ve

ry in

ef-

ficie

nt in

ene

rgy

use,

” st

ates

an

ener

gy r

epai

r se

rvic

e th

at h

as m

oni-

tore

d m

y ap

artm

ent.

I can

use

the

high

ly e

ffici

ent u

rban

mob

ility

sys

-te

m to

buy

gro

cerie

s an

d ha

ve th

em d

eliv

ered

st

raig

ht to

my

hom

e.

Whe

n I l

ook

outs

ide

the

win

dow

, I

can

enjo

y gr

een

wal

ls b

loom

ing

with

flo

wer

s, th

e pu

mp

clea

ning

the

wa-

ter,

the

sola

r pa

nels

slo

wly

turn

ing

to

the

sun.

Page 29: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 2

9

2020

: The

big

gest

com

pany

onl

ine

laun

ches

its

“sm

art l

ife”

and

“sm

art c

ities

” se

rvic

es o

fferin

g se

vera

l pr

ogra

mm

es th

at h

elp

mak

e sm

art c

hoic

es re

gard

ing

thin

gs li

ke h

ealth

y an

d re

sour

ce e

ffici

ent f

ood,

id

entif

ying

the

mos

t sus

tain

able

mob

ility

cho

ices

, set

ting

the

optim

al te

mpe

ratu

re a

nd li

ghtin

g le

vels

in

your

hom

e or

dec

idin

g w

hen

to re

trofi

t you

r hou

se o

r cal

l som

eone

to re

pair

your

inef

ficie

nt fr

idge

.

2020

: Com

pani

es re

desi

gn th

eir

hum

an re

sour

ces

stra

tegi

es a

s an

incr

easi

ng n

umbe

r of t

alen

ted

indi

vidu

als

star

t loo

king

for e

ntre

-pr

eneu

rial o

ppor

tuni

ties.

2021

: A n

etw

ork

of e

nerg

y co

nsci

ous

cons

umer

s w

ho h

ave

open

ly p

ublis

hed

thei

r clim

ate

impa

ct

info

rmat

ion,

pro

pose

as

a ci

tizen

s’ a

ct to

sca

le u

p th

eir b

ehav

iour

. Hac

kath

on e

vent

s po

wer

sim

ilar

citiz

en in

itiat

ives

acr

oss

all E

U c

ount

ries.

The

goa

l is

to re

form

taxa

tion

so th

at it

sup

port

s su

stai

nabl

e co

nsum

er c

hoic

es.

2024

: Con

sum

er b

rand

s th

at h

ave

not y

et s

tart

ed to

op

erat

e su

stai

nabl

y st

art t

o ov

erpr

oduc

e. T

his

cycl

e dr

amat

ical

ly d

ecre

ases

the

qual

ity o

f the

pro

duct

s an

d m

ore

peop

le tu

rn to

war

ds s

elf-

cust

omiz

atio

n.

2023

: Aug

men

ted-

real

ity s

ervi

ces

beco

me

avai

l-ab

le in

300

Eur

opea

n ci

ties.

The

se s

ervi

ces

alte

r w

orld

-vie

ws

and

lifes

tyle

s si

gnifi

cant

ly a

s th

e ne

ed to

trav

el a

nd c

onst

ruct

dec

reas

es.

2025

: Peo

ple

acro

ss d

iffer

-en

t net

wor

ks fi

nd a

wid

e ra

nge

of m

eans

to s

ecur

e an

inco

me

by d

oing

diff

er-

ent k

inds

of m

icro

wor

k.

2025

: Bas

ed o

n th

e ci

tizen

s’ a

cts

of th

e ea

rly

2020

s, a

ll EU

cou

ntrie

s re

form

thei

r tax

atio

n to

incl

ude

envi

ronm

enta

l im

pact

s in

pric

es.

2024

: City

3.0

and

the

“int

erne

t of t

hing

s”: s

endi

ng

info

rmat

ion

to a

part

men

t blo

ck-b

ased

3D

prin

t-er

s in

ord

er to

cre

ate

any

obje

cts

e.g.

com

pute

rs.

Rep

rodu

ctio

n st

arts

at c

ity le

vel,

whi

ch d

efine

s th

e st

ruct

ure

of th

e ph

ysic

al s

pace

.

A fr

iend

of m

ine

cam

e to

ta

ke a

look

at m

y ap

art-

men

t with

his

hea

t cam

era.

S

he c

heck

ed m

y en

ergy

co

nsum

ptio

n an

d I o

rder

ed

ener

gy r

etro

fittin

g fr

om h

er

on th

e sp

ot!

2

020

2

02

5

I’m a

par

t of a

No-

Impa

ct

Gro

up th

at w

as fo

rmed

5

year

s ag

o. It

rea

lly

show

ed p

eopl

e th

at it

is

pos

sibl

e to

live

with

in

plan

etar

y lim

its.

“My

kids

say

th

ere

are

enou

gh e

xcit-

ing

thin

gs to

di

scov

er in

di

gita

l sch

ools

, vi

rtua

l tou

rism

se

rvic

es a

nd

augm

ente

d re

ality

gam

es.

You

don’

t ne

ed to

trav

el

to h

ave

new

ex

perie

nces

as

I onc

e di

d.”

Eve

ry v

illag

e an

d su

burb

has

a r

emot

e co

-wor

king

spa

ce

that

allo

ws

peop

le to

get

toge

ther

, sha

re th

ough

ts a

nd

redu

ce th

e ne

ed to

com

mut

e. E

very

mun

icip

ality

set

s up

thes

e sp

aces

for

peop

le to

wor

k or

eve

n to

get

new

jo

bs, b

ased

on

earli

er s

hare

d br

ains

torm

ing

sess

ion

and

coop

erat

ion.

2019

: Th

anks

to G

EKS

, di

vers

e da

ta re

gard

ing

peop

les’

hom

es is

gat

h-er

ed. B

ased

on

this

dat

a,

inha

bita

nts

rece

ive

feed

-ba

ck w

hich

enc

oura

ges

hom

e re

paire

s th

at h

elp

to

max

imiz

e en

ergy

effi

cien

cy.

Mul

ti-pl

ayer

s

open

-air

gam

esA

ugm

ente

d

real

ity g

lass

es

Page 30: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

30 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

The

3rd

indu

stria

l rev

olut

ion

Ubi

tech

eco

nom

y

Wik

idem

ocra

cy

2027

: A c

ar s

harin

g co

mpa

ny th

at u

ses

an “

acce

ss”

busi

ness

mod

el ri

vals

tr

aditi

onal

mar

ket l

eade

rs in

mob

ility

an

d ac

quire

s on

e of

the

trad

ition

al c

ar

com

pani

es.

2027

: The

exa

mpl

e of

pee

r pow

er th

at p

rodu

ced

the

fam

ous

citiz

en

mov

emen

t for

sus

tain

abili

ty in

the

early

202

0s, i

nspi

res

man

y m

ore

of

thes

e ci

tizen

s’ a

cts.

Lar

ge n

umbe

rs o

f peo

ple

draf

t citi

zen

mov

emen

ts

that

are

bas

ed o

n no

ted

best

pra

ctic

es –

thes

e m

ovem

ents

soo

n st

art

to s

hape

mai

nstr

eam

life

styl

es.

2027

: Rec

ogni

tion

is g

iven

to

peop

le in

way

s th

at d

o no

t m

ake

narr

ow a

ssum

ptio

ns

abou

t ind

ivid

ual’s

wor

k.

2029

: 80%

of E

ston

ian

citiz

ens

own

a pe

r-so

nal a

pplia

nce

that

opt

imiz

es th

eir m

obili

ty,

diet

s an

d el

ectr

icity

con

sum

ptio

n th

roug

h co

nsta

nt re

cogn

ition

and

feed

back

of t

heir

cons

umer

cho

ices

. The

se p

erso

nal a

ppli-

ance

s, fo

r exa

mpl

e, h

elp

peop

le to

opt

imis

e pu

blic

tran

spor

tatio

n us

e an

d en

able

diff

eren

t ty

pes

of v

ehic

le a

nd ri

de s

harin

g sc

hem

es.

2030

: Uni

vers

al tr

ansl

a-to

r app

s m

ake

it po

s-si

ble

for c

omm

uniti

es

wor

ldw

ide

to c

omm

u-ni

cate

with

eve

ryon

e ev

eryw

here

.

2031

: Sm

art t

echn

olog

ies

and

augm

ente

d-re

ality

se

rvic

es h

ave

prod

uced

a n

ew b

usin

ess

sect

or th

at

doub

les

its s

ize

each

yea

r for

the

next

thre

e ye

ars.

A

ccor

ding

to s

tudi

es th

is s

ecto

r em

ploy

s ei

ght m

illio

n pe

ople

Eur

ope-

wid

e.

2026

: Due

to th

e 3D

-prin

t-in

g m

arke

t, th

e N

asda

q su

ccee

ds th

e D

ow J

ones

as

the

glob

ally

rele

vant

m

arke

t ind

ex.

2026

: A n

ew c

ompa

ny th

at

faci

litat

es d

iffer

ent m

icro

wor

k op

port

uniti

es, i

s am

ong

the

big-

gest

com

pani

es in

Eur

ope.

2026

: Use

r gro

up o

rient

ed

hosp

itals

em

erge

and

peo

ple

who

sha

re s

imila

r gen

etic

risk

pr

ofile

s fo

r cer

tain

dis

ease

s he

lp p

rovi

de b

est p

ossi

ble

care

, kno

wle

dge

and

reac

tion

time

for i

ts c

usto

mer

s.

I onl

y bu

y bo

oks

with

virt

ual m

oney

. It

mak

es n

o se

nse

for

me

to u

se “

real

” cu

rren

cies

any

mor

e to

buy

boo

ks.

20

30

Ther

e’s

a hi

gh e

ffici

ency

inte

r-m

odal

ity s

yste

m th

at

lets

me

trav

el b

y bi

ke, t

rain

and

sha

red

car

– al

l w

ithin

the

sam

e ne

twor

k.

The

Wis

e P

erso

nal F

ood

Sho

pper

-a

pplic

atio

n an

alys

es u

ser’s

gen

etic

da

ta a

nd p

ropo

ses

heal

thy

diet

s.

To b

e ho

nest

, I h

aven

’t se

en

a ne

w b

uild

ing

cons

truc

ted

in m

y to

wn

in th

e pa

st fi

ve

year

s. In

stea

d, a

ll of

the

offic

e bu

ildin

gs h

ave

been

ret

rofit

-te

d fo

r re

side

ntia

l use

.

“You

sho

uld

mee

t up

on W

edne

s-da

y in

stea

d of

Tue

sday

as

ther

e’s

very

litt

le d

iffer

ence

in y

our

pref

eren

ces,

but

a h

uge

gap

in

effic

ienc

y in

reg

ard

to m

obili

ty, f

or

inst

ance

.” s

ays

my

phon

e w

hen

I se

t up

a m

eetin

g w

ith m

y fr

iend

.

“I o

ften

log

on to

thes

e pa

rtic

ipat

ive

gove

rnan

ce p

rogr

ams

in o

rder

to m

eet

peop

le w

ith w

hom

I sh

are

com

mon

Bet

ter w

ork

crea

tes

wel

l-bei

ng

Del

iber

ativ

e pr

oces

ses

on lo

cal g

over

nanc

e

Page 31: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 3

1

2035

2031

: Sm

art t

echn

olog

ies

and

augm

ente

d-re

ality

se

rvic

es h

ave

prod

uced

a n

ew b

usin

ess

sect

or th

at

doub

les

its s

ize

each

yea

r for

the

next

thre

e ye

ars.

A

ccor

ding

to s

tudi

es th

is s

ecto

r em

ploy

s ei

ght m

illio

n

2032

: Cop

yrig

ht is

foun

d to

be

redu

ndan

t, as

the

best

met

hod

to

map

sol

utio

ns is

to c

row

dsou

rce

inpu

ts to

pro

blem

s fro

m re

leva

nt

onlin

e co

mm

uniti

es. A

n ex

plos

ion

of im

mat

eria

l cre

ativ

ity fo

llow

s.

2033

: Val

ue is

cro

wds

ourc

ed th

roug

h ev

ery

piec

e of

mea

ning

ful o

r mea

ning

less

act

ion.

It is

gat

h-er

ed th

roug

h di

ffere

nt s

enso

rs a

nd n

ow e

xcee

ds

the

amou

nt o

f tim

e pe

ople

spe

nd e

xplic

itly

wor

k-in

g. T

he v

irtua

l env

ironm

ent h

as m

ade

it po

ssib

le

for n

eigh

bour

s no

t to

com

pete

with

in th

e m

ater

ial

real

m, w

hich

lead

s to

, inc

redi

ble

amou

nts

of n

ew

onlin

e co

nten

t cre

atio

n.

2036

: Peo

ple

mov

e be

yond

the

divi

sion

bet

wee

n re

al-

life

and

virt

ual i

dent

ities

; wha

teve

r hap

pens

in o

ne

auto

mat

ical

ly fo

llow

s in

to th

e ot

her a

s w

ell.

Peo

ple

-not

cor

pora

tions

- ar

e in

cha

rge

of th

e ne

twor

ks.

“Whe

n I fi

nish

pi

ckin

g up

an

d cu

stom

is-

ing

item

s fr

om

virt

ual c

ata-

logu

es, I

can

ju

st g

o do

wn-

stai

rs a

nd p

ick

them

up

from

th

e 3D

prin

ter

spac

e.”

A n

ew b

ook

com

es o

ut

desc

ribin

g ho

w th

e la

st o

f th

e po

litic

al p

artie

s is

stil

l ha

ngin

g on

in th

ere.

I fin

d th

ese

part

ies

to b

e a

rem

-na

nt o

f pas

t. N

ow p

oliti

cal

deci

sion

s st

art f

rom

, and

ar

e in

timat

ely

linke

d to

, ev

eryd

ay p

ract

ices

.

This

old

offi

ce b

uild

-in

g is

ren

ovat

ed a

nd

will

bec

ome

a hi

ghly

en

ergy

effi

cien

t hom

e fo

r m

any

fam

ilies

. Th

ese

are

amon

g th

e m

ost w

ante

d ho

mes

av

aila

ble!

3D p

rintin

g an

d se

lf-pr

otot

ypin

g fa

cilit

ies.

2034

: The

clim

ate

chan

ge d

enia

l of

the

21st

cen

tury

is v

iew

ed a

s so

me-

thin

g co

mpa

rabl

e to

the

witc

h hu

nts

of th

e 17

th c

entu

ry.

My

frie

nd w

ho’s

be

en p

artia

lly

disa

bled

for

the

past

10

year

s is

an

act

ive

part

icip

ant i

n so

-ci

ety,

as

digi

tal t

ools

hav

e em

pow

ered

him

to a

cces

s in

form

atio

n an

d se

rvic

es

as e

ffici

ently

as

anyo

ne

coul

d im

agin

e.

I don

’t ev

en h

ave

to u

se

repa

ir se

rvic

es a

s I c

an

just

upg

rade

my

mod

ular

app

lianc

e by

prin

ting

off a

new

pa

rt fo

r it.

“I s

pend

mos

t of

my

time

very

ef

ficie

ntly

. Eve

n w

hen

trav

ellin

g, I’

m

com

plet

ing

a m

ul-

titud

e of

diff

eren

t m

icro

task

s.”

2033

: Use

r gro

up o

rient

ed h

ospi

tals

in

itiat

e a

citiz

ens’

act

to a

lloca

te m

ost

avai

labl

e he

alth

care

fund

s to

sup

port

-in

g th

ese

hosp

itals

spe

cific

ally

.

inte

rest

s. W

e re

gula

rly p

ropo

se

initi

ativ

es th

at la

ter

beco

me

the

basi

s of

new

pol

icie

s.”

Loca

l ci

tizen

ship

ne

twor

ks

Del

iber

ativ

e pr

oces

ses

Page 32: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

32 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

The

3rd

indu

stria

l rev

olut

ion

Ubi

tech

eco

nom

y

Bet

ter w

ork

crea

tes

wel

l-bei

ng

Wik

idem

ocra

cy20

44: C

itize

n m

ovem

ents

repl

ace

trad

ition

al p

oliti

cal m

echa

nism

s in

de

cisi

on-m

akin

g. P

eer-

to-p

eer p

ower

fo

rms

the

basi

s of

“w

ikid

emoc

racy

.”

2045

: New

ly s

et s

tand

ards

are

fo

rmed

for d

igita

l net

wor

ks to

se

rve

as a

pla

tform

for p

rovi

d-in

g m

anuf

actu

ring

blue

prin

ts.

The

inte

rnet

is o

ne o

f the

se

ad-h

oc n

etw

orks

of k

now

ledg

e ex

chan

ge.

2042

: A g

loba

l act

for s

elf-

surv

eil-

lanc

e ta

kes

plac

e, in

itiat

ed b

y m

any

of th

e pe

er-t

o-pe

er n

etw

orks

. Eve

ry

digi

tal i

tem

con

nect

ed to

the

glob

al

netw

ork

oper

ates

with

in s

usta

inab

le

para

met

ers.

Exc

eedi

ng th

ese

pa-

ram

eter

s is

onl

y po

ssib

le o

utsi

de th

e di

gita

l rea

lm (w

hich

for t

he m

ajor

ity

of th

e pe

ople

is im

poss

ible

).

“Our

Act

ive

Hou

se is

con

stan

tly

optim

isin

g th

e w

ay w

e liv

e, fr

om

sugg

estin

g gr

een

cook

ing

reci

-pe

s an

d au

tom

atic

ally

pre

vent

-in

g fo

od w

aste

to im

plem

entin

g E

nerg

y W

atch

er d

ietin

g pr

o-gr

ams

for

the

fam

ily.”

2040

: Diff

eren

t int

eres

t gro

ups

prov

ide

blue

prin

ts fo

r ind

ivid

uals

to

gat

her r

esou

rces

and

“pr

int”

th

eir o

wn

item

s, a

lthou

gh in

hig

hly

cust

omis

ed w

ays.

Mos

t cor

pora

-tio

ns h

ave

been

suc

ceed

ed b

y su

ch in

tere

st g

roup

s.

2040

: Sus

tain

abili

ty is

not

eve

n ta

lked

abo

ut a

nym

ore

as b

y 20

34 g

loba

l kn

owle

dge

of w

hat c

an a

nd c

anno

t be

done

with

in th

e bo

unda

ries

of

one

Eart

h be

cam

e ap

pare

nt to

eve

ryon

e. W

hat w

ere

seen

as

sust

aina

ble

lifes

tyle

s in

201

2 ar

e si

mpl

y ra

tiona

l cho

ices

in 2

040.

2040

2

04

5

I am

a m

embe

r of

a h

ealth

cen

-tr

e w

ith m

y pe

ers.

Thi

s sp

ecifi

c ce

ntre

is o

ptim

ised

for

peop

le

who

hav

e th

e sa

me

gene

tic r

isk

profi

les

as I

do.

Sen

sors

and

feed

-ba

ck s

yste

ms

Situ

ated

adv

ise

on

ener

gy c

onsu

mpt

ion

I mon

itor

my

heal

th c

onst

antly

th

roug

h th

ese

sens

ors

that

are

in

stal

led

in m

y ar

m. I

t’s a

rel

ief.

Wha

teve

r ha

ppen

s, m

y ho

spita

l is

aw

are

of m

y co

nditi

on a

nd I

save

a lo

t of m

oney

, ene

rgy

and

effo

rt s

ince

I do

n’t h

ave

to d

o th

e ev

alua

tions

mys

elf.

I can

trus

t my

doct

ors

to d

o th

em –

no

mor

e fu

tile

visi

ts to

the

hosp

ital!

Page 33: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 3

3

2046

: The

val

ue o

f life

com

es fr

om n

etw

orks

. To

exis

t is

to b

e pa

rt o

f a

spec

ific

netw

ork.

Peo

ple

build

thei

r rep

utat

ions

virt

ually

and

thos

e w

ith a

goo

d re

puta

tion

can

join

net

wor

ks m

ore

easi

ly th

an o

ther

s.

Whi

le th

e ru

les

and

guid

elin

es o

f diff

eren

t com

mun

ities

diff

er, i

nter

act-

ing

in th

e vi

rtua

l rea

lm is

one

of t

he b

asic

form

s of

hum

an b

ehav

iour

.

2049

: Con

sum

ers

recy

cle

ever

ythi

ng in

th

eir “

prin

ters

.” T

he o

nly

trad

ition

al fa

ctor

y le

ft in

Eur

ope

prod

uces

apa

rtm

ent b

lock

-sc

ale

3D p

rinte

rs.

I des

ign

my

hom

e’s

new

in

terio

r by

put

ting

my

old

chai

r in

to m

y pr

inte

r so

that

I c

an g

et a

new

on

e as

a r

esul

t.

2

05

0

The

Dom

estic

Fee

dbac

k S

ervi

ce

allo

ws

seni

ors

in h

ouse

hold

s to

use

us

er fr

iend

ly s

mar

t hom

e so

lutio

ns

to c

ontr

ol a

nd e

duca

te th

eir

fam

i-lie

s on

sus

tain

able

livi

ng.

My

wife

and

I ha

ve s

ome

old

cook

ing

book

s th

at w

e us

e fo

r ho

me

deco

ratio

n as

we

have

no

othe

r pr

actic

al u

se fo

r th

em. I

t am

uses

us

that

so

muc

h em

-ph

asis

was

onc

e pl

aced

on

the

prep

ara-

tion

of fo

od. I

nste

ad, w

e ju

st u

se o

ur 3

D

prin

ters

to p

rint s

ynth

etic

food

that

has

ve

ry h

igh

nutr

ition

val

ue.

“My

fath

er s

tudi

ed b

io-e

ngin

eerin

g an

d or

gani

c fa

rmin

g an

d no

w h

e is

a c

ook.

Eve

ry

mor

ning

he

look

s fo

r m

icro

-job

off

ers

he c

an r

espo

nd to

, fro

m c

oach

ing

youn

g fa

rmer

s to

doi

ng s

usta

inab

le a

sses

smen

ts o

f the

food

cha

in. A

nd h

e lo

ves

it!”

Wor

king

age

nda

co

mpo

sed

ever

yday

.O

nlin

e ta

sk o

ffers

Page 34: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

34 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Mob

ility

(dai

ly a

nd to

uris

m)

11 0

00 k

g

Hou

sing

: bui

ldin

g

2400

kg

Pro

duct

co

nsum

ptio

n 26

00 k

g

Leis

ure

time

15

00 k

g

Food

73

00 k

g

Hou

sing

: el

ectr

icity

33

00 k

g

Oth

ers

900

kg

Leis

ure

time

Con

sum

er n

etw

orks

…fir

st o

rgan

ise

into

dec

isio

n m

aker

s th

at a

ffect

loc

al a

nd

glob

al p

olic

ies.

Agi

le m

arke

ting

agen

cies

…m

ake

use

of th

e pe

er in

form

atio

n av

aila

ble

in p

urch

asin

g de

cisi

ons.

Con

stru

ctio

n co

mpa

nies

…st

art s

ellin

g sm

all s

cale

ene

rgy

retr

ofitt

ing

serv

ices

to h

omeo

wne

rs

Gam

ing

indu

stry

…gr

ows

in s

igni

fican

ce a

nd

turn

s in

to a

gia

nt c

row

dsou

rc-

ing

mec

hani

sm th

at c

ombi

nes

play

ing

and

wor

k.

Sm

art

mob

ility

com

pani

es

…co

me

up w

ith p

erso

naliz

ed s

olu-

tions

that

let p

eopl

e op

timiz

e th

eir

mob

ility

bas

ed o

n th

eir

need

s.

Gat

ekee

pers

for l

ifest

yle

chan

ges

Six

-pac

k of

mos

t infl

uent

ial l

ifest

yle

trigg

ers

1.

All

appl

ianc

es a

nd b

uild

ings

are

equ

ippe

d w

ith th

e te

chno

logy

to a

dvis

e th

eir u

sers

on

smar

t use

an

d m

aint

enan

ce re

quire

men

ts. S

mar

t, en

ergy

effi

cien

t use

is th

e de

faul

t opt

ion.

With

the

help

of

dive

rse

and

plen

tiful

dat

a ab

out t

heir

own

and

thei

r pee

rs’ h

omes

, peo

ple

rece

ive

feed

back

that

en

cour

ages

them

to re

pair

thei

r hom

es s

o th

ey re

ach

max

imum

ene

rgy

effic

ienc

y.

2.

Sm

art m

obili

ty s

ervi

ces

chan

ge th

e w

ay p

eopl

e pl

an th

eir t

ime,

and

how

they

com

bine

rout

es a

nd

mod

es o

f tra

nspo

rt. T

hese

ser

vice

s he

lp to

opt

imiz

e pu

blic

tran

spor

tatio

n us

e an

d en

able

the

de-

velo

pmen

t of v

ehic

le a

nd ri

de s

harin

g sc

hem

es.

3.

Ubi

quito

us te

chno

logi

es g

ive

rise

to a

new

eco

syst

em o

f Pee

r-to

-Pee

r—se

rvic

es th

at a

re a

vaila

ble

for p

eopl

e w

hene

ver t

hey

need

or w

ant t

hem

. The

se s

ervi

ces

with

retr

ofitt

ing

hom

es o

r cho

osin

g su

stai

nabl

e di

etar

y op

tions

, am

ong

othe

r thi

ngs.

4.

A n

ew g

ener

atio

n of

virt

ual r

ealit

y an

d on

line

com

mun

ities

bec

omes

pop

ular

, whi

ch m

eans

a d

e-cr

ease

in n

eeds

for l

arge

livi

ng s

pace

s, fu

rnitu

re a

nd e

ven

food

stuf

fs.

5.

The

scal

e up

of 3

D-p

rintin

g ch

ange

s th

e w

ay p

eopl

e se

ek s

elf-

actu

alis

atio

n. C

onsu

min

g go

ods

desi

gned

and

mad

e by

som

eone

els

e is

no

long

er th

e m

ost e

labo

rate

way

to e

xpre

ss o

ne’s

iden

tity

and

styl

e. In

stea

d, p

eopl

e co

llect

ivel

y de

sign

the

good

s th

ey d

esire

and

wan

t to

be id

entifi

ed w

ith.

6.

Onl

ine

netw

orks

bui

lt on

a s

hare

d in

tere

st in

life

styl

e is

sues

ena

ble

peop

le to

real

ise

thei

r pot

entia

l an

d to

con

stitu

te th

emse

lves

as

grou

ps w

ith p

oliti

cal p

ower

. The

exa

mpl

e an

d su

ppor

t of o

ther

net

-w

ork

mem

bers

enc

oura

ges

expe

rimen

tatio

n w

ith n

ew s

usta

inab

le li

fest

yle

patt

erns

. Gra

dual

ly th

ese

netw

orks

and

exp

erim

ents

gro

w in

to m

ovem

ents

that

sta

rt re

form

ing

the

polit

ical

age

nda.

The

aver

age

mat

eria

l foo

tpri

nt o

f a E

urop

ean

in

2050

in t

he G

over

ning

the

Com

mon

s sc

enar

io (8

000

kg p

er p

erso

n in

a y

ear)

com

pare

d to

the

ave

rage

m

ater

ial f

ootp

rint

in 2

007

(29

000

kg).

Mob

ility

(d

aily

and

tour

ism

) 27

00 k

g

Food

25

00 k

g

Hou

sing

: bu

ildin

g 14

00 k

g

Oth

ers

200

kg

Hou

sing

: el

ectr

icity

30

0 kg

Pro

duct

co

nsum

ptio

n 50

0 kg

Leis

ure

time

400

kg

Page 35: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 3

5

Loca

l Loo

ps

Crit

ical

cha

lleng

es a

nd s

olut

ions

in th

e sc

enar

io G

over

ning

the

Com

mon

sQ

1.

How

to

min

imiz

e th

e co

nsum

ptio

n of

res

ourc

es in

term

s of

pow

er p

rodu

ctio

n an

d IC

T pr

oduc

tion?

1.

Ener

gy is

pro

duce

d fro

m d

iver

se re

new

able

sou

rces

and

di

strib

uted

with

the

help

of a

Eur

ope-

wid

e su

per g

rid.

2.

Foss

il fu

els

phas

ed o

ut fo

llow

ing

a gl

obal

trea

ty. L

ots

of

play

ers

in e

nerg

y m

arke

ts h

arne

ssin

g va

rious

sou

rces

.

3.

Virt

ual s

ervi

ces,

ent

erta

inm

ent a

nd c

omm

uniti

es a

re

so a

ttra

ctiv

e th

at it

has

redu

ced

the

need

for s

pace

in

hom

es. U

biqu

itous

tech

nolo

gies

hav

e en

able

d gr

owth

of

serv

ices

that

incr

ease

sm

art a

nd e

ffici

ent u

se o

f hom

es.

4.

Peo

ple

use

less

ICT

appl

ianc

es, b

ecau

se th

ere

is o

nly

need

for o

ne d

evic

e yo

u al

way

s ca

rry.

Mod

ular

app

li-an

ces

and

cent

raliz

ed c

loud

farm

s w

ith o

ptim

al lo

catio

n en

sure

long

life

-cyc

le fo

r app

lianc

es, a

s w

ell a

s ef

ficie

nt

reso

urce

use

.

Q2.

H

ow t

o lim

it m

obili

ty a

nd t

he e

nvir

onm

enta

l im

pact

s

of in

form

atio

n te

chno

logy

in a

ubi

quito

us s

ocie

ty?

1.

Virt

ual c

onsu

mpt

ion,

per

sona

l opt

imiz

atio

n an

d di

rect

be

havi

oura

l fee

dbac

k re

duce

com

mut

ing

and

trav

el

need

s. M

eetin

g vi

rtua

lly is

che

aper

, sm

arte

r and

coo

ler.

2.

Alth

ough

peo

ple

don’

t fee

l the

re is

muc

h ne

ed fo

r tr

avel

ling

any

mor

e, s

mar

t and

flex

ible

pub

lic tr

ansp

ort,

car-

shar

ing

and

slow

air

trav

el (e

.g. s

olar

Zep

pelin

es) a

re

in u

se to

som

e ex

tent

.

3.

Citi

es a

re d

ense

. The

re a

re fe

w n

ew b

uild

ings

and

re

trofi

tted

flat

s. T

he b

asic

infr

astr

uctu

re o

f the

201

0’s

rem

ains

.

4.

Cha

ngin

g pr

oduc

tion

and

empl

oym

ent p

atte

rns

mak

e a

larg

e pa

rt o

f offi

ce b

uild

ing

stoc

k re

dund

ant i

n th

eir

prev

ious

use

. Thi

s ha

s en

able

d sm

art u

rban

gro

wth

: af-

ford

able

new

hom

es in

cen

tral

loca

tions

.

Q3.

H

ow t

o m

ake

sure

tha

t de

cent

raliz

ed p

rodu

ctio

n

of

item

s pr

omot

es s

usta

inab

ility

?

1.

Alth

ough

3D

com

pone

nt p

rintin

g an

d 3D

sho

ppin

g cu

l-tu

re h

ave

beco

me

popu

lar,

virt

ual c

onsu

mpt

ion

ensu

res

that

peo

ple

own

only

a s

mal

l am

ount

of t

ailo

red

pers

onal

go

ods.

The

se a

re m

ainl

y m

ade

out o

f rec

ycle

d m

ater

i-al

s in

ord

er to

com

ply

with

the

glob

al tr

eaty

on

reso

urce

ef

ficie

ncy.

Page 36: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

36 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Loca

l Loo

ps

The

dram

atic

rise

of r

esou

rce

pric

es a

nd th

e sc

ar-

city

of o

il fi

nally

arr

ives

in la

te 2

010s

, tho

ugh

it co

mes

as

a gr

eat s

urpr

ise

to m

any.

Sev

eral

com

-pa

nies

, pol

itici

ans

and

citiz

ens

wer

e ill

-pre

pare

d fo

r an

era

of ra

dica

l ris

e of

reso

urce

pric

es a

nd

oil s

carc

ity. T

he ri

se o

f log

istic

s co

sts

mea

nt a

sh

ift to

war

ds lo

cal p

rodu

ctio

n. T

his

mak

es p

eopl

e vi

ew lo

cal r

esou

rces

, lik

e so

il, in

a n

ew li

ght.

As

a re

actio

n to

the

new

era

of g

row

ing

reso

urce

pr

ices

in th

e 20

20s,

ther

e w

as a

citi

zen

upris

ing,

w

hich

forc

ed s

ever

al E

urop

ean

stat

es a

nd th

e EU

to

laun

ch n

ew p

rogr

amm

es to

re-d

efine

pol

icy

stru

ctur

es to

sup

port

the

reso

urce

con

stra

ined

re

ality

. The

new

pro

gram

mes

wer

e ba

sed

on a

n id

ea o

f “lo

cal r

esou

rce

loop

s”, r

efer

ring

to lo

cal

regi

ons

that

are

sel

f-su

ffici

ent i

n ke

y re

sour

ces.

Th

ese

prog

ram

mes

foun

d in

spira

tion

in tr

ansi

-tio

n to

wn

and

eco-

villa

ge e

xper

imen

ts th

at h

ad

been

gro

win

g st

eadi

ly in

the

prev

ious

dec

ades

. Th

is d

oes

not m

ean

that

all

prod

uctio

n of

food

or

ener

gy n

eces

saril

y ha

ppen

s w

ithin

the

city

lim

its,

but r

athe

r tha

t citi

es h

ave

man

agem

ent s

yste

ms

help

ing

to m

ap re

sour

ce fl

ows

and

mai

ntai

n cl

ose

ties

with

pro

duct

ion

faci

litie

s cr

eatin

g a

Loca

l Lo

op w

ith th

em.

In th

e w

orld

of L

ocal

Loo

ps s

cien

tific

expe

rtis

e st

ill d

omin

ates

glo

bal s

truc

ture

s. T

he te

chno

logi

-ca

l and

sci

entifi

c kn

owle

dge

base

is g

loba

l and

ev

enly

dis

trib

uted

. But

the

emph

asis

of m

any

busi

ness

es a

nd p

rofe

ssio

ns is

on

user

-cen

tred

de

sign

that

pro

duce

s sm

art a

nd c

reat

ive

loca

l ad

apta

tions

. In

thei

r hea

rts

and

min

ds p

eopl

e st

ill

reco

gniz

e th

eir d

epen

denc

e on

glo

bal n

etw

orks

, bu

t the

y va

lue

loca

l pro

duct

s an

d cu

lture

mor

e

than

per

haps

pre

cedi

ng g

ener

atio

ns d

id. C

on-

sum

er c

hoic

es b

ecom

e m

ore

unifo

rm –

onl

y a

few

wou

ld b

uy fu

rnitu

re, c

loth

es, c

hees

e or

cer

e-al

s pr

oduc

ed o

utsi

de th

eir L

ocal

Loo

p. F

orei

gn

desi

gns

and

flavo

urs

just

are

not

app

ealin

g to

the

aver

age

cons

umer

any

mor

e. T

his

all m

arks

a n

ew

phas

e of

glo

bal c

ultu

re a

nd g

loba

lizat

ion.

All

loop

s ha

ve th

eir o

wn

com

bina

tion

of in

flu-

entia

l pro

fess

iona

l gro

ups.

Loc

al p

rofe

ssio

nal

guild

s fo

rm th

e co

re o

f loc

al in

nova

tion

syst

ems

and

com

petit

iven

ess.

The

y ar

e al

so a

n ex

trem

ely

impo

rtan

t for

ce in

pol

itics

hel

ping

to p

repa

re le

g-is

latio

n th

at is

bas

ed o

n lo

cal r

esou

rces

, med

ical

pr

actic

es a

nd th

e bo

unda

ries

with

in w

hich

glo

bal

sust

aina

bilit

y is

pos

sibl

e.

In s

ocie

ties

of L

ocal

Loo

ps w

ork

has

a sp

ecia

l va

lue,

par

tly b

ecau

se lo

cal v

alue

cha

ins

are

very

cl

ear.

Peo

ple

unde

rsta

nd th

at th

ey a

re d

epen

d-en

t on

each

oth

ers’

ski

lls. T

his

unde

rline

s th

at

ever

yone

’s w

ork

is m

eani

ngfu

l. O

ther

s kn

ow th

at

they

nee

d yo

ur w

ork;

you

r wor

k so

lves

com

mon

is

sues

. The

bou

ndar

ies

of w

ork

and

free

time

are

uncl

ear.

How

are

sus

tain

able

lif

esty

les

achi

eved

?P

eopl

e sp

end

mos

t of t

heir

time

addi

ng v

alue

to

thei

r com

mun

ities

, whi

ch is

som

ethi

ng th

ey c

an

best

do

thro

ugh

enga

ging

in g

uild

s as

mem

bers

. A

flou

rishi

ng s

ervi

ce s

ecto

r with

in th

e lo

ops

help

s pe

ople

to o

utso

urce

eve

ryda

y ro

utin

es s

uch

as

Sin

gula

r

Sup

er C

ham

pion

s

Loca

l Loo

ps

Gov

erni

ng

the

Com

mon

s

Em

path

etic

C

omm

uniti

es

Pan

dem

ic te

chno

logy

Ende

mic

tech

nolo

gy

Human-centrism

Meritocracy Alte

rnat

ive

Sus

tain

able

S

ocie

ty 3

: Sup

porti

ng 8

000

kg

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

esLo

cal L

oops

is a

sce

nario

in w

hich

a r

adic

al

ener

gy c

risis

forc

es s

ocie

ties

to r

e-ev

alua

te fu

n-da

men

tally

the

foun

datio

ns o

f the

ir w

ell-

bein

g.

Ene

rgy

and

reso

urce

sys

tem

s ar

e in

crea

sing

ly

seen

thou

gh “

Loca

l Loo

ps”,

whi

ch is

a te

chni

-ca

l con

cept

that

can

be

appl

ied

in th

e co

ntex

t of

loca

l and

reg

iona

l pro

duct

ion

cycl

es. P

eo-

ple

build

thei

r lif

esty

le a

nd w

ays

of b

elon

ging

ar

ound

thei

r w

ork,

whi

le te

chno

logy

is b

ette

r ad

apte

d th

roug

h lo

cal d

esig

n so

lutio

ns, w

hich

cr

eate

roo

m fo

r ne

w k

inds

of p

rofe

ssio

nalis

m.

A n

ew e

thos

of c

raft

sman

ship

and

pro

fess

iona

l co

mm

uniti

es s

hape

the

way

peo

ple

live,

org

an-

ize

thei

r w

ork

and

spen

d th

eir

leis

ure

time.

Page 37: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 3

7

cook

ing

or d

oing

laun

dry,

whi

ch in

turn

rele

ases

tim

e fo

r col

labo

ratio

n. T

he c

entr

aliz

ed e

xecu

tion

of th

e fo

rem

entio

ned

hous

ehol

d ta

sks

redu

ces

the

mat

eria

l foo

tprin

t at t

he c

omm

unity

leve

l, by

en-

surin

g th

ere

is le

ss fo

od w

aste

and

mor

e ef

ficie

nt

use

of a

pplia

nces

and

indo

or s

pace

s.

A b

reak

thro

ugh

in s

olar

pan

el te

chno

logy

and

ef-

ficie

nt n

eigh

bour

hood

com

bine

d he

at a

nd p

ower

(C

HP

) sys

tem

s he

lps

to b

ring

carb

on e

mis

sion

s of

livi

ng s

pace

s do

wn.

As

peop

le s

pend

mos

t of

thei

r tim

e in

wor

king

hub

s, c

olla

bora

ting

with

thei

r gu

ild p

eers

, les

s sp

ace

is n

eede

d fo

r hom

es th

an

in 2

012.

Col

labo

rativ

e co

nsum

ptio

n is

per

soni

fied

as m

ost h

ome

appl

ianc

es a

re s

hare

d am

ongs

t ne

ighb

ours

, and

are

loca

ted

in th

e sh

ared

spa

ces

of b

uild

ings

. Rea

lizin

g th

at th

e lo

cally

des

igne

d go

ods

mee

t the

ir ne

eds

bette

r (te

chno

logi

cal i

n-no

vatio

ns h

ave

focu

sed

on lo

cal s

olut

ions

), pe

ople

pr

efer

them

ove

r the

ir in

tern

atio

nal s

ubst

itute

s. L

o-ca

l ada

ptat

ions

are

ver

y ap

peal

ing

to p

eopl

e, th

eir

mai

nten

ance

is e

asie

r and

con

veni

ent r

ecyc

ling

and

up-c

yclin

g se

rvic

es a

re in

pla

ce.

Ther

e is

no

need

to le

ave

one’

s ne

ighb

orho

od

ofte

n as

peo

ple

live

near

by th

eir w

ork,

fam

ily a

nd

peer

s. C

yclin

g ro

utes

and

wal

king

lane

s ar

e in

go

od c

ondi

tion

and

are

built

aro

und

the

best

pos

-si

ble

scen

ery

to m

eet m

ultip

le u

ser n

eeds

. Thi

s ea

sy a

cces

s to

con

veni

ent a

nd h

ealth

y m

obili

ty le

d to

resi

lient

beh

avio

ur c

hang

es, n

udgi

ng p

eopl

e to

w

alk

and

cycl

e to

get

aro

und

inst

ead

of u

sing

car

s or

oth

er im

pact

ful t

rans

port

.

For h

olid

ays

and

leis

ure

time,

new

soc

ial n

orm

s in

cent

ivis

e pe

ople

to s

tay

clos

e to

hom

e. L

ocal

Wha

t is

life

like

in th

e Lo

cal L

oops

?

Wha

t ch

ange

s be

twee

n 20

12 a

nd 2

050?

Edu

catio

nEd

ucat

ion

is a

bout

tran

smitt

ing

and

shar

ing

skill

s.

Cra

ftsm

ansh

ip a

nd s

peci

aliz

atio

n ar

e pr

omot

ed th

roug

h m

utua

l tea

chin

g an

d pr

oble

m-b

ased

lear

ning

.

Wor

kW

ork

is c

hara

cter

ized

by

enga

gem

ent w

ith is

sues

and

col

labo

ratio

n w

ithin

and

am

ong

guild

s.

Nee

ds m

et b

y ap

plyi

ng d

esig

n th

inki

ng a

nd fo

rmul

atin

g lo

cal s

olut

ions

.

City

Citi

es a

re m

ultic

entr

ed a

nd fo

rmed

into

thei

r ow

n lo

ops.

G

uild

s w

orki

ng a

nd li

ving

in th

e lo

ops

lay

thei

r ow

n st

rong

cha

ract

eris

tics

on th

eir l

oops

.

Hea

lthW

ork

plac

es p

rovi

de h

ealth

-car

e an

d sk

illed

doc

tors

. Th

ere

are

basi

c rig

hts

that

all

regi

ons

agre

e to

prio

ritiz

e w

ith re

gard

to h

ealth

-car

e.

Livi

ngLi

ving

in th

e lo

ops

is c

hara

cter

ized

by

shar

ed s

pace

s, e

xist

ing

infr

astr

uctu

re a

nd c

o-w

orki

ng s

pace

s.

Gui

ld m

embe

rs o

ften

live

in th

e sa

me

neig

hbou

rhoo

d

Food

Food

pro

duct

ion

and

dist

ribut

ion

are

mar

ked

by lo

calit

y, m

inim

ized

tran

spor

tatio

n an

d ne

ighb

ourh

ood

cant

eens

. En

ergy

use

d fo

r foo

d pr

oduc

tion

is o

ptim

ized

.

Mob

ility

Tran

spor

tatio

n is

abo

ut w

alka

bilit

y an

d cy

clin

g. E

xist

ing

infr

astr

uctu

re is

opt

imiz

ed.

Inte

rcity

mob

ility

is n

eede

d le

ss a

nd s

ervi

ces

are

hom

e-de

liver

ed. L

ocal

tour

ism

and

long

vac

atio

ns a

re fa

vour

ed b

y pe

ople

.

Con

sum

ptio

nC

onsu

mpt

ion

driv

ers

incl

ude

a m

ass

ques

t to

redu

ce th

e ov

eral

l vol

ume

of a

pplia

nces

nee

ded

thro

ugh

shar

ing

sche

mes

and

re

plac

emen

t ser

vice

s. P

rodu

cts

are

mad

e w

ith h

igh-

qual

ity lo

cal m

ater

ials

and

des

ign.

Ava

ilabi

lity

of fo

reig

n go

ods

is li

mite

d. A

ll pr

oduc

ts a

re re

paira

ble.

Eco

nom

yTh

e ec

onom

y is

bas

ed a

roun

d lo

cal u

ser-

cent

ric a

dapt

atio

ns a

nd e

ffici

ent l

ocal

clu

ster

ing.

Sen

se o

f sec

urity

Sen

se o

f sec

urity

is g

ener

ated

thro

ugh

guild

s an

d un

ders

tand

ing

of h

ow th

e sy

stem

, i.e

. the

clo

sed

cycl

es, w

ork.

P

eopl

e id

entif

y th

emse

lves

prim

arily

as

part

of t

heir

wor

k co

mm

uniti

es.

Leis

ure

time

Peo

ple

have

out

sour

ced

thei

r hou

sew

ork

in o

rder

to b

e ab

le to

max

imiz

e th

eir i

nput

s in

wor

k co

mm

uniti

es.

Leis

ure

time

is m

ostly

spe

nt w

ith g

uild

mem

bers

.

Loca

l Loo

ps s

cena

rio n

arra

tive

how

did

it a

ll ha

ppen

? »

Pea

k-oi

l gam

e-ch

ange

r »

Red

isco

very

of l

ocal

reso

urce

s »

Loca

l tur

n »

Cra

ftsm

an a

ttitu

de

Thes

e dr

iver

s ar

e de

pict

ed a

s ev

ents

on

the

timel

ine.

tour

ist d

estin

atio

ns h

ave

incr

ease

d in

num

ber

and

prov

ide

desi

rabl

e re

crea

tiona

l val

ue s

uch

as

loca

l bio

dive

rsity

rese

rves

or f

arm

s pr

oduc

ing

thei

r fav

ourit

e fo

od p

rodu

cts.

In 2

050,

mem

bers

of

som

e fa

mili

es m

ight

stil

l liv

e in

diff

eren

t citi

es. T

o se

e ea

ch o

ther

, fam

ily m

embe

rs m

ay ta

ke lo

nger

ho

liday

s to

geth

er in

one

of t

he lo

cal t

ouris

m d

esti-

natio

ns.

Page 38: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

38 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Pea

k-oi

l gam

e-ch

ange

r

Red

isco

very

of l

ocal

reso

urce

s

Loca

l tur

n

Cra

ftsm

an a

ttitu

de

2014

: Ris

e in

glo

bal e

nerg

y pr

ices

and

ot

her c

omm

odity

pric

es s

tart

a n

ew c

y-cl

e of

inde

bted

ness

for m

any

Euro

pean

co

untr

ies.

Thi

s im

pact

s up

on p

eopl

e’s

lives

in th

e fo

rm o

f soa

ring

inte

rest

rate

s as

wel

l as

mor

e ex

pens

ive

food

, tra

ns-

port

atio

n an

d el

ectr

icity

pric

es.

2015

: The

firs

t rep

orts

are

pub

lishe

d ci

ting

un-

tapp

ed lo

cal r

esou

rces

and

em

ergi

ng te

chno

lo-

gies

that

pre

sent

new

opp

ortu

nitie

s fo

r com

mu-

nity

sel

f-su

ffici

ency

.

2014

: Eur

opea

n P

arlia

men

tary

ele

ctio

ns

cata

lyze

a s

erie

s of

new

exp

ress

ions

on

long

term

goa

ls fo

r the

regi

on o

f wha

t the

EU

is a

ll ab

out.

Sev

eral

par

ties

cam

paig

n w

ith s

loga

ns a

nd to

pics

that

hig

hlig

ht th

e EU

as

a sa

fegu

ard

that

sec

ures

pro

gres

s th

at is

em

bedd

ed in

loca

l res

ourc

es a

nd

trad

ition

s.

2015

: A g

roup

of w

orke

rs in

Irel

and

laun

ches

the

New

Cra

ftsm

ansh

ip-

Inde

x to

mea

sure

em

ploy

ee e

ngag

e-m

ent,

mot

ivat

ion

and

a se

nse

of

usef

ulne

ss a

nd p

urpo

se in

thei

r wor

k.2016

: Man

y se

min

ars

deba

t-in

g th

e Eu

rope

an d

ebt c

risis

co

ncer

n th

emse

lves

incr

eas-

ingl

y w

ith th

e re

veal

ed li

nk b

e-tw

een

a co

untr

y’s

high

ene

rgy

depe

nden

cy a

nd p

ublic

deb

t.

2017

: Tw

elve

Eur

opea

n ci

ties

publ

ish

a jo

int i

nitia

tive

on th

e “L

ocal

Loo

ps E

cono

my”

bas

ed o

n th

e ea

rlier

20

00W

soc

iety

initi

ativ

e th

at a

imed

at e

nerg

y in

de-

pend

ence

. Eac

h of

thes

e ci

ties

star

ts im

plem

entin

g th

e in

itiat

ive

with

thei

r ow

n pr

ogra

mm

es a

nd d

efin-

ing

mea

sure

s an

d st

anda

rds

for t

he fi

elds

of b

uild

ing,

en

ergy

and

food

.

2018

: Sev

eral

Eur

opea

n co

untr

ies

refo

rm th

eir

econ

omic

pol

icie

s an

d go

vern

men

tal s

truc

ture

s.

Afte

r the

refo

rm, e

nerg

y an

d na

tura

l res

ourc

e po

li-ci

es fo

rm th

e co

re o

f eco

nom

ic p

olic

y.

2019

: Gro

ups

of c

ompa

nies

and

uni

vers

ities

join

the

Loca

l Lo

ops

Econ

omy

initi

ativ

e an

d an

noun

ce th

e cr

eatio

n of

par

t-ne

rshi

ps w

here

the

citie

s de

velo

p an

d te

st n

ew te

chno

logi

es

and

serv

ice

mod

els

that

sup

port

Loc

al L

oops

.

2019

: In

Ger

man

y, s

ome

prog

ress

ive

citie

s w

ith w

ell-t

rave

lled

inte

rnat

iona

l pop

ulat

ions

sta

rt a

mov

emen

t of c

yber

-loca

lism

th

at c

eleb

rate

s gl

obal

cul

ture

and

tech

nolo

gy to

geth

er w

ith

trad

ition

al w

ays

of b

uild

ing

and

agric

ultu

re.

“For

my

husb

and

and

me,

leis

ure

mea

ns v

isiti

ng o

ne th

e Lo

cal G

astr

onom

y G

uild

s ar

ound

, who

are

rei

nven

ting

new

rec

ipes

from

loca

l sea

sona

l foo

d.”

I’ve

hear

d ab

out t

his

new

type

of

cra

ftm

ansh

ip c

ultu

re. A

ppar

-en

tly it

has

em

erge

d re

cent

ly

and

has

star

ted

to d

efine

an

era

of u

ser-

led

desi

gn. I

t loo

ks li

ke a

go

od th

ing,

as

the

maj

ority

of a

pplia

nces

, cl

othe

s an

d fu

rnitu

re a

re lo

cally

pro

duce

d ye

t the

y co

me

in d

iver

se d

esig

ns fi

ttin

g di

f-fe

rent

use

r gr

oups

.

I tho

roug

hly

enjo

y liv

ing

in

the

“ten

min

ute

city

” th

at w

e ha

ve h

ere

in

Sto

ckho

lm! I

do

n’t h

ave

to

wor

ry a

bout

sp

endi

ng ti

me

in

tran

sit a

s al

l the

se

rvic

es I

need

ar

e ju

st te

n m

in-

utes

aw

ay.

2

015

Som

e of

the

larg

e di

stric

ts h

ere

in

Am

ster

dam

are

com

plet

ely

car

free

. Th

is m

eans

I ca

n en

joy

it ei

ther

by

wal

king

or

cycl

ing

bett

er th

an e

ver

befo

re.

Ope

n ki

tche

ns p

rom

otin

g lo

cal

gast

rono

my

Food

less

ons

of

gree

n co

okin

g

Page 39: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 3

9

2020

: A s

tudy

pub

lishe

d in

Lon

-do

n pr

opos

ing

a ne

w m

anag

e-m

ent m

etho

d th

at fo

cuse

s on

the

inte

grity

of p

rofe

ssio

nal g

roup

s an

d on

agi

le d

ivis

ion

of la

bour

bet

wee

n pr

ofes

sion

als

beco

mes

a b

ests

elle

r, re

volu

tioni

sing

man

agem

ent a

nd

lead

ersh

ip in

man

y co

mpa

nies

.

2023

: A g

roup

of t

op E

urop

ean

univ

ersi

ties

open

s sa

telli

te

cam

puse

s in

Lus

aka,

Bam

ako

and

Bog

ota

supp

orte

d by

thei

r ho

me

citie

s an

d by

som

e of

the

wor

ld’s

big

gest

com

pani

es in

m

inin

g an

d fa

rmin

g. T

he in

tent

is to

sec

ure

the

univ

ersi

ties’

role

as

pla

ces

of s

ocia

l and

tech

nolo

gica

l inn

ovat

ion

sinc

e pr

evio

usly

ex

istin

g gl

obal

sys

tem

s an

d te

chno

logi

cal r

egim

es a

re e

rodi

ng.

Thes

e ne

w u

nive

rsiti

es a

re s

een

as a

way

of a

dapt

ing

som

e of

th

e m

ost l

ong-

last

ing

glob

al s

truc

ture

s, li

ke s

cien

ce, t

o th

e ne

w

era

of lo

calis

m.

2023

: Oil

pric

es c

ontin

ue to

rise

bey

ond

belie

f, pu

shin

g gr

eat n

umbe

rs o

f log

istic

s co

mpa

nies

out

of t

he m

arke

t or f

orci

ng th

em to

sel

l the

ir op

erat

ions

to th

e fe

w re

mai

n-in

g la

rge

ones

. As

a re

sult,

a s

mal

l num

ber o

f firm

s do

min

ate

tran

spor

t mar

kets

in

man

y co

untr

ies,

whi

ch u

ltim

atel

y le

ads

to s

igni

fican

t pric

e in

crea

ses.

2023

: Oil

pric

es b

ecom

e ve

ry v

olat

ile, n

ew p

eak

pric

es a

re re

ache

d in

four

con

secu

tive

year

s an

d th

ere

are

occa

sion

al s

uppl

y sh

orta

ges.

The

se d

rast

ic p

rice

shift

s pe

rsua

de

peop

le to

sta

rt e

xplo

ring

mor

e lo

cal a

nd s

ecur

e pr

oduc

tion

alte

rnat

ives

.

2021

: A n

umbe

r of r

egio

ns a

nd e

ven

som

e na

tions

hav

e m

anag

ed to

mak

e th

eir b

uild

ing,

ene

rgy

and

agric

ultu

ral

sect

ors

self-

suffi

cien

t thr

ough

loca

l res

ourc

es.

2024

: A n

ew fi

eld

of re

sear

ch

that

mod

els

loca

l eco

sys-

tem

s an

d th

e sp

read

of

tech

nolo

gica

l app

licat

ions

be

twee

n re

gion

s em

erge

s in

La

tvia

.

2025

: The

fina

ncia

l mar

ket s

yste

m is

in tu

rmoi

l, re

sulti

ng in

a n

ew w

ave

of b

ankr

uptc

ies

and

bailo

uts

of b

ig c

ompa

nies

in s

trat

egic

sec

tors

(lo

gist

ics,

ban

ks, c

onst

ruct

ion

indu

stry

and

reta

il).

2025

: Lea

ding

eco

nom

ists

in

Slo

veni

a la

unch

the

conc

ept

of th

e “G

uild

Eco

nom

y” th

at

build

s on

find

ings

con

cern

ing

prod

uctiv

ity g

ains

pro

vide

d by

st

rong

gui

ld-li

ke s

truc

ture

s pr

e-se

nt in

man

y ne

ighb

ourh

oods

in

Eur

opea

n ci

ties.

“Loc

al fo

od

only

” to

wns

at

trac

t ple

nty

of

atte

ntio

n w

ith

thei

r vi

bran

t mar

kets

and

ric

h fo

od c

ultu

re.

2

015

20

20

2

02

5

Her

e in

Cop

enha

gen

in o

ur c

o-ho

usin

g fla

t, w

e ju

st b

ough

t a

win

dmill

that

pro

-vi

des

us w

ith e

noug

h en

ergy

to s

uppo

rt

ever

yone

’s n

eeds

.

In o

rder

to g

et a

mas

ter

degr

ee o

f so

cial

sci

ence

s fr

om th

e un

iver

sity

, I

have

to c

ompl

ete

a tw

o-ye

ar p

rofe

s-si

onal

inte

rnsh

ip. I

hav

e to

adm

it th

at

this

put

s so

me

pres

sure

on

me.

It’s

hard

for

me

to fi

nd c

offe

e in

st

ores

now

aday

s. In

stea

d, I

drin

k go

od v

arie

ties

of c

offe

e su

bstit

utes

th

at h

ave

been

dev

elop

ed u

sing

m

oder

n te

chno

logy

.

It am

uses

me

that

just

a w

hile

bac

k,

ther

e w

ere

so m

any

inef

ficie

nt a

ppli-

ance

s on

the

mar

ket.

Now

aday

s, it

’s

such

a p

leas

ure

to g

o an

d bu

y a

new

re

frig

erat

or, s

ince

I kn

ow a

ll of

them

ar

e hi

gh-q

ualit

y an

d co

nsum

e ve

ry

little

ene

rgy.

Page 40: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

40 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Pea

k-oi

l gam

e-ch

ange

r

Red

isco

very

of l

ocal

reso

urce

s

Loca

l tur

n

Cra

ftsm

an a

ttitu

de

2028

: The

re a

re n

o sa

fe h

aven

s fo

r inv

estm

ents

no

w th

at c

ount

ries

agre

e on

lim

iting

and

regu

lat-

ing

trad

e in

com

mod

ities

der

ivat

ives

. The

vol

-um

e of

trad

ing

on th

e gl

obal

fina

ncia

l mar

kets

de

crea

ses.

2027

: The

Gui

ld E

cono

my

spee

ds u

p th

e ris

e of

a

new

mov

emen

t in

urba

n pl

anni

ng th

at fo

cuse

s on

cre

atin

g de

nse

wor

king

-livi

ng “

ecos

yste

ms”

th

at in

spire

the

form

atio

n of

gui

lds.

2029

: In

Nor

ther

n Eu

rope

the

num

ber o

f vi

llage

s th

at a

re s

elf-

suffi

cien

t exc

eeds

th

e nu

mbe

r of t

hose

that

are

bas

ed o

n ce

ntra

lized

ene

rgy

solu

tions

.

2029

: It i

s a

wid

ely

acce

pted

fa

ct th

at th

e er

a of

oil

and

mod

est e

nerg

y pr

ices

is o

ver.

2030

: In

man

y Eu

rope

an c

ount

ries,

nat

iona

l go

vern

men

ts h

ave

dele

gate

d a

subs

tant

ial

part

of t

heir

budg

etin

g po

wer

to c

ities

and

re

gion

s th

at h

ave

grea

t fre

edom

to d

ecid

e on

how

to b

uild

new

infr

astr

uctu

re, p

rovi

de

publ

ic s

ervi

ces

and

defin

e le

vels

of t

axa-

tion.

How

ever

, the

re a

re c

erta

in E

U-w

ide

goal

s an

d m

inim

um re

quire

men

ts th

at

regi

ons

have

to m

eet.

2030

: The

Eur

opea

n U

n-io

n re

-defi

nes

its s

truc

-tu

re b

ased

on

an id

ea o

f “l

ocal

reso

urce

loop

s”,

refe

rrin

g to

regi

ons

that

ar

e se

lf-su

ffici

ent i

n ke

y re

sour

ces

and

that

ope

r-at

e w

ithin

the

sam

e lo

cal

tech

nolo

gica

l par

adig

m.

2030

: Eur

opea

n ed

ucat

ion

polic

y re

cogn

izes

gui

lds

as

part

of t

he e

duca

tion

syst

em

and

guar

ante

es th

em th

e rig

ht

to g

ive

degr

ees

that

can

be

cons

ider

ed e

quiv

alen

t to

MA

an

d P

hD -

degr

ees.

Rep

air

and

upsc

ale

serv

ices

are

so

met

hing

I us

e al

mos

t eve

ry m

onth

. I’v

e ha

d m

y vi

deo

proj

ecto

r fo

r 10

ye

ars

now

, sin

ce I

know

I ca

n ge

t the

be

st p

ossi

ble

mai

nten

ance

for

it.

My

guild

take

s ca

re o

f all

my

heal

th c

are

rela

ted

prac

tical

ities

. Th

ey e

nsur

e th

at b

oth

diag

nost

ics

and

trea

tmen

t are

pre

vent

ive

in

man

ner.

We

take

prid

e in

sup

port

ing

loca

l de

sign

and

goo

ds.

I enj

oy li

ving

in th

ese

bran

d ne

w

bloc

ks m

ade

out o

f the

fine

st w

ood

in E

urop

e. C

onst

ruct

ion

com

pani

es

in o

ur r

egio

n he

re in

Wes

tern

Aus

tria

ha

ve a

wel

l-kn

own

trad

ition

in w

ood

arch

itect

ure

to d

raw

upo

n.

Our

em

ploy

er h

ired

a pr

ofes

-si

onal

who

take

s ca

re o

f our

ch

ildre

n w

hile

we

wor

k.

This

allo

ws

us a

nd o

ur k

ids

to b

e in

the

sam

e pl

ace

all

the

time.

“My

elde

st d

augh

ter

was

alw

ays

hang

ing

arou

nd th

e cl

othe

s de

sign

gu

ilds’

wor

ksho

ps a

nd n

ow s

he’s

do

ing

her

appr

entic

eshi

p th

ere.

She

w

ants

to e

nter

the

guild

that

’s p

ro-

duce

d m

ost o

f the

clo

thes

I w

ear.”

“Thi

s is

our

Gui

ld C

ante

en. I

t’s w

here

we

usua

lly g

et

our

mea

ls. I

t is

also

her

e th

at w

e ha

ve o

ur s

hare

d re

frig

erat

ion

spac

e an

d eq

uipm

ent.”

20

30

2026

: Som

e un

iver

sitie

s

are

rest

ruct

ured

aro

und

an

idea

fam

iliar

to d

esig

n.

This

des

ign-

thin

king

is

abou

t app

lyin

g th

e be

st

avai

labl

e kn

owle

dge

to lo

-ca

l con

ditio

ns.

I lov

e liv

ing

in m

y D

anis

h to

wn.

We

have

n’t h

ad to

w

orry

abo

ut b

uyin

g en

-er

gy in

age

s. I

know

lots

of

oth

er to

wns

that

enj

oy

the

sam

e si

tuat

ion.

2026

: Peo

ple

star

t to

look

for t

owns

and

citi

es th

at a

re

capa

ble

of im

plem

entin

g sm

art a

dapt

atio

n pl

ans

that

hel

p th

eir i

nhab

itant

s co

pe w

ith p

eak-

oil b

ette

r tha

n pe

ople

in

othe

r par

ts o

f the

cou

ntry

.

Gui

ld C

ante

en w

here

G

uild

mem

bers

enj

oy th

eir

lunc

hes

and

dinn

ers

Equi

pmen

ts fo

r lo

cal p

rodu

ctio

n

Loca

l des

ign

and

pr

oduc

tion

wor

ksho

p

Page 41: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 4

1

2032

: Peo

ple

incr

easi

ngly

put

thei

r mon

ey in

to la

nd

and

prop

erty

that

they

them

selv

es o

r the

ir fa

mili

es

inte

nd to

use

. Spe

cific

ally

in It

aly,

peo

ple

are

very

ex

cite

d ab

out t

his

retu

rn to

loca

l val

ues.

2034

: Ada

ptat

ion

to n

ew c

ondi

tions

af

ter p

eak-

oil h

appe

ns q

uite

une

ven-

ly –

not

onl

y be

caus

e so

me

coun

trie

s an

d re

gion

s ha

ve m

ore

reso

urce

s,

but b

ecau

se s

ome

bene

fit fr

om

bett

er s

tart

ing

poin

ts th

an o

ther

s in

te

rms

of n

atur

al re

sour

ces,

pre

viou

s ex

perim

ents

, or m

ore

agile

inno

va-

tion

syst

ems. 20

34: W

hile

the

tran

sitio

n to

loca

l dis

trib

uted

ene

rgy

syst

ems

and

th

e us

e of

loca

l con

stru

ctio

n m

ater

ials

is w

ell o

n its

way

, cre

atin

g

relia

ble

loca

l foo

d/nu

triti

on s

yste

ms

seem

s to

be

muc

h m

ore

diffi

cult.

2035

: Som

e na

tions

and

regi

ons

bene

fit fr

om th

e de

clin

e of

glo

bal m

arke

ts. M

any

reso

urce

-ric

h bu

t pre

viou

sly

unde

rdev

elop

ed A

fric

an, A

sian

and

Sou

th A

mer

ican

nat

ions

hav

e be

en a

ble

to c

olle

ct in

vest

men

ts a

nd ta

xes

from

inte

rnat

iona

l com

pani

es h

arne

ssin

g th

eir r

esou

rces

.

2035

: A n

umbe

r of f

orer

unne

r reg

ions

in E

urop

e, C

hina

and

the

US

A h

ave

been

abl

e to

de

velo

p w

ell-f

unct

ioni

ng lo

cal e

nerg

y an

d fo

od s

yste

ms.

Man

y of

them

are

pra

ctic

ally

en-

ergy

inde

pend

ent a

nd h

ave

repl

aced

man

y en

ergy

-inte

nsiv

e im

port

pro

duct

s w

ith lo

cal,

less

en

ergy

-inte

nsiv

e on

es (e

.g. c

oncr

ete

and

stee

l with

tim

ber a

nd s

tone

as

cons

truc

tion

mat

eria

l).

Nor

ther

n Eu

rope

is a

prim

e ex

ampl

e.

2035

: In

Fran

ce, t

he n

umbe

r of p

eopl

e w

orki

ng

in fa

rmin

g ha

s in

crea

sed

due

to th

e sl

ow d

evel

-op

men

t of n

ew a

gric

ultu

ral m

etho

ds b

ased

on

loca

l res

ourc

es. T

his

is o

ne o

f the

reas

ons

why

fo

od p

rices

rem

ain

high

.

An

old

frie

nd o

f min

e no

w w

orks

as

a lo

-ca

l ada

ptor

. He

know

s a

lot a

bout

glo

bal

mob

ility

sol

utio

ns a

nd b

rings

them

into

th

e lo

cal c

onte

xt v

ery

wel

l.

At 7

8, I

still

wor

k 4

hour

s a

day

at o

ur o

ffice

. Mos

t of

my

wor

k th

ere

is e

valu

at-

ing

proj

ects

and

talk

ing

with

m

y co

lleag

ues.

Tra

inin

g pr

ogra

mm

es, d

iets

and

diff

eren

t typ

es

of m

edic

ine

have

hel

ped

me

reta

in m

y m

enta

l vita

lity.

Ther

e’s

a ne

w b

icyc

le r

oute

that

just

op

ened

out

side

the

city

. It a

llow

s m

e to

get

to th

e lo

cal w

iner

y an

d ap

pre-

ciat

e th

e sc

ener

y he

re in

B

avar

ia. W

e ty

pica

lly tr

y to

leav

e th

e ci

ty fo

r lo

ng

wee

kend

s.

“I lo

ve th

e fa

ct th

at th

ere’

s so

m

uch

mor

e yo

u ca

n do

in o

ur

neig

hbou

rhoo

d. T

he U

rban

P

lann

ing

Gui

ld h

as r

eally

don

e a

grea

t job

mak

ing

the

area

m

ore

com

pact

.”

2

03

5

2031

: Mor

e an

d m

ore

peop

le li

ve in

the

sam

e ne

ighb

ourh

ood

with

ot

her m

embe

rs o

f the

ir gu

ilds.

Les

s sp

ace

for

livin

g is

requ

ired

as

man

y ap

plia

nces

are

sh

ared

and

pro

vide

d by

th

e gu

ild fo

r lar

ge g

roup

of

peo

ple.

I wor

k as

an

expe

rt in

so

lar

pane

ls th

at a

re b

est

suite

d to

con

ditio

ns h

ere

in S

pain

. I ju

st g

ot a

n in

vite

to

join

the

best

gui

ld o

f my

prof

es-

sion

.

Rec

ent p

assi

ve h

ouse

bui

ld

for d

ensi

ficat

ion

Gar

den

plot

My

husb

and

and

I wan

ted

to g

et a

bl

ende

r. W

e m

anag

ed to

buy

a v

ery

good

Spa

nish

one

from

a lo

cal c

om-

pany

that

had

cus

tom

ised

it to

fit

wel

l with

our

Slo

vaki

an in

gred

ient

s.

Page 42: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

42 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

2040

Pea

k-oi

l gam

e-ch

ange

r

Red

isco

very

of l

ocal

reso

urce

s

Loca

l tur

n

Cra

ftsm

an a

ttitu

de

2036

: Citi

es a

gree

on

glob

al

evid

ence

-bas

ed fr

amew

orks

for

regi

onal

ly im

plem

ente

d po

licie

s on

su

ch k

ey is

sues

as

heal

th, e

nviro

n-m

ent a

nd s

afet

y.

2040

: 2/3

of t

he p

opul

atio

n liv

e in

ne

ighb

ourh

oods

that

are

defi

ned

acco

rdin

g to

a p

rofe

ssio

n an

d a

guild

. The

se n

eigh

bour

hood

s al

so fo

rm th

e ba

sic

polit

ical

uni

ts

that

hav

e th

e rig

ht to

ele

ct th

eir

own

repr

esen

tativ

es to

regi

onal

co

unci

l.

2042

: A n

ew g

loba

l tre

aty

on th

e op

enne

ss o

f re-

sear

ch is

neg

otia

ted.

It d

efine

s th

e ne

w th

inki

ng o

n sc

ienc

e an

d te

chno

logy

, hig

hlig

htin

g th

e be

nefit

s of

the

trad

ition

al v

irtue

s of

sci

ence

(ope

nnes

s,

freed

om, t

enta

tiven

ess…

) and

of t

he o

pen-

sour

ce

appr

oach

to te

chno

logy

whi

le a

t the

sam

e tim

e bo

lste

ring

a te

chno

logi

cal r

egim

e in

whi

ch m

ost

tech

nolo

gica

l app

licat

ions

are

ver

y lo

cal.

2037

: The

EU

is p

uttin

g m

ore

pow

er a

nd

reso

urce

s in

to tr

ansf

errin

g kn

owle

dge

in

the

field

of “

Loca

l Loo

ps m

anag

emen

t”.

How

ever

, the

glo

bal e

cono

my

has

been

st

agna

nt fo

r ove

r a d

ecad

e, u

nem

ploy

-m

ent i

s hi

gh in

man

y Eu

rope

an re

gion

s an

d th

e po

wer

of n

atio

nal

gove

rnm

ents

is e

rodi

ng e

ven

as th

ere

is le

ss p

ublic

reso

urce

to in

vest

.

2040

: Man

y co

untr

ies

that

use

d to

hav

e a

low

sta

ndar

d of

livi

ng h

ave

man

aged

to ra

ise

the

gene

ral l

evel

of t

heir

infr

astr

uctu

re, e

duca

tion

and

heal

th c

are.

Thi

s en

cour

ages

man

y pr

ofes

sion

als

from

the

deve

lope

d w

orld

to m

igra

te to

thes

e co

untr

ies

as in

tern

atio

nal m

arke

ts s

tart

to

decl

ine.

The

ski

lls g

ap b

etw

een

“dev

elop

ed”

and

“dev

elop

ing”

cou

ntrie

s an

d re

gion

s st

arts

to n

arro

w.

2040

: Afte

r yea

rs o

f neg

otia

tions

, citi

es a

gree

on

a ne

w g

loba

l fina

ncia

l re

gim

e ba

sed

on lo

cal c

urre

ncie

s an

d ta

ngib

le a

sset

s su

ch a

s en

ergy

, st

rate

gic

min

eral

s or

ski

lls.

Inte

r-ge

nera

tiona

l fur

nitu

re is

a n

ew d

esig

n tr

end

that

pro

mot

es lo

cal d

esig

n th

at la

sts

for

gene

ratio

ns. I

t’s e

asy

and

chea

p to

re-

asse

mbl

e an

d ad

apta

ble

to a

use

r’s n

eeds

.

Gre

en d

oork

eepe

rs a

re a

spe

cial

-iz

ed g

uild

that

con

trol

s, m

onito

rs

and

ensu

res

the

ener

gy e

ffici

ency

of

bui

ldin

gs a

nd b

lock

s. T

hey

serv

e as

link

s be

twee

n th

e ne

igh-

bour

hood

s.

I can

qui

ckly

mov

e w

ithin

citi

es a

nd

betw

een

diff

eren

t ar

eas

of th

e ci

ties

inha

bite

d by

gui

lds

with

the

new

Sup

er-

bus

syst

em.

Just

last

yea

r, w

e m

anag

ed

to tu

rn s

ome

old

city

rai

lway

tr

acks

into

sta

te-o

f-th

e-ar

t bi

cycl

e la

nes.

Cyc

ling

is a

pl

easu

re in

Bra

tisla

va n

ow!

All

wor

kpla

ces

in S

we-

den

intr

oduc

e a

happ

i-ne

ss in

dex

to m

easu

re

empl

oyee

sat

isfa

ctio

n. T

his

lead

s to

a m

ore

fulfi

lling

wor

k en

viro

nmen

t and

sta

rts

to

resh

ape

Sw

edis

h w

ork

cultu

re.

My

guild

bou

ght m

e a

ser-

vice

rob

ot th

at ta

kes

care

of

clea

ning

and

coo

king

so

that

I d

on’t

have

to.

In th

e ar

ea I

live

in, l

ots

of

wor

ksho

ps a

nd w

orkp

lace

s ha

ve d

isap

pear

ed a

s th

ere

are

man

y pe

ople

her

e w

ho

don’

t bel

ong

in g

uild

s.

I hav

e al

loca

ted

a se

t am

ount

of m

oney

eac

h m

onth

for

expe

nsiv

e fo

reig

n pr

oduc

ts, s

uch

as

coff

ee a

nd te

a. P

rices

are

hig

h,

as th

e tr

ansp

ort m

arke

t is

dom

i-na

ted

by a

few

glo

bal c

ompa

nies

.

Page 43: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 4

3

2045

2

05

0

2044

: Tec

hnic

ally

, peo

ple

are

still

ci

tizen

s of

a n

atio

n. H

owev

er,

natio

nal p

oliti

cs is

und

erst

ood

to b

e a

cere

mon

ial t

radi

tion

that

re

min

ds c

itize

ns o

f suc

h va

lues

as

dem

ocra

cy, e

qual

ity, f

reed

om a

nd

solid

arity

.

2043

: The

re is

stil

l a s

igni

fican

t am

ount

of g

loba

l tra

de in

en

ergy

, foo

d an

d ot

her b

asic

com

mod

ities

, but

com

pare

d w

ith le

vels

in 2

012,

man

y of

the

mos

t flou

rishi

ng re

gion

s do

no

t im

port

man

y ta

ngib

le g

oods

. In

thes

e re

gion

s a

disc

ours

e on

the

“cris

is o

f 202

0s”

is a

lread

y pa

rt o

f col

lect

ive

mem

ory

as p

eopl

e co

nsid

er th

emse

lves

to b

e pa

rt o

f a n

ew e

ra o

f de

velo

pmen

t.

2044

: A g

loba

l gui

ld o

f sci

entis

ts is

form

ed, w

ith

the

right

and

dut

y to

sec

ure

that

tech

nolo

gica

l kn

owle

dge

is s

prea

d ev

enly

acr

oss

the

wor

ld.

2045

: Peo

ple

spen

d m

uch

of th

eir l

eisu

re

time

with

in th

eir o

wn

neig

hbou

rhoo

d. T

hey

wor

k lo

ng h

ours

and

ofte

n se

e th

eir f

ello

w

guild

mem

bers

as

thei

r clo

sest

frie

nds.

“I m

et m

y hu

sban

d w

hen

I was

doi

ng m

y in

tern

ship

at E

nerg

y S

av-

ing

Doc

tors

, one

of t

he to

wn

guild

s fo

r en

ergy

pre

serv

atio

n an

d pr

oduc

tion.

It w

as e

asy

to fi

nd a

n ap

artm

ent f

or o

ur fa

mily

. Now

we

have

acc

ess

to c

onve

nien

t lod

ging

con

nect

ed to

our

wor

kspa

ce.

Hom

e w

aste

-man

agem

ent o

ppor

tuni

ties

allo

w h

ouse

hold

s to

turn

in

to s

uppl

iers

of r

aw m

ater

ials

for

loca

l com

pani

es.

Inte

r-ge

nera

tiona

l fur

nitu

re is

a n

ew d

esig

n tr

end

that

pro

-m

otes

loca

l des

ign

that

last

s fo

r ge

nera

tions

. It’s

eas

y an

d To

mor

row

, our

gui

ld w

ill s

et u

p gu

idel

ines

for

zero

net

ene

rgy

in

cons

truc

tion.

Our

gui

ld h

as th

e m

ost e

xper

tise

in th

is is

sue

and

our

guid

elin

es a

re e

xpec

ted

to b

ecom

e th

e ba

sis

of le

gisl

atio

n to

be

pass

ed

late

r th

is y

ear.

My

daug

hter

just

set

off

on

her

jour

neym

an y

ear

to

Buc

hare

st to

wor

k in

a lo

cal

cons

truc

tion

com

pany

. She

’s

taki

ng th

e in

tern

atio

nal t

rain

.

2046

: Man

y Eu

rope

ans

feel

th

at c

urre

ntly

the

EU is

an

inte

rim s

olut

ion

on th

e w

ay

tow

ards

glo

bal g

over

nmen

t.

Bui

ldin

g fo

r wor

k-lif

e in

tegr

atio

nO

ffice

s an

d

loca

l pro

duct

ion

pl

ants

Page 44: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

44 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Mob

ility

(dai

ly a

nd to

uris

m)

11 0

00 k

g

Hou

sing

: bu

ildin

g

2400

kg

Pro

duct

co

nsum

ptio

n 26

00 k

g

Leis

ure

time

15

00 k

g

Food

73

00 k

g

Hou

sing

: el

ectr

icity

33

00 k

g

Oth

ers

900

kg

Gat

ekee

pers

for l

ifest

yle

chan

ges

Six

-pac

k of

mos

t infl

uent

ial l

ifest

yle

trigg

ers

1.

Extr

emel

y hi

gh e

nerg

y an

d fo

od p

rices

per

suad

e pe

ople

to fo

cus

thei

r cho

ices

on

loca

l an

d se

cure

alte

rnat

ives

.

2.

Tigh

t wor

kpla

ce a

nd n

eigh

bour

hood

-bas

ed c

omm

uniti

es e

nabl

e an

d en

cour

age

peo-

ple

to s

hare

spa

ces

and

equi

pmen

t. Th

e ne

ed fo

r liv

ing

spac

e is

redu

ced.

3.

Peo

ple

live

clos

e to

thei

r gui

ld p

eers

. Am

ple

serv

ice

optio

ns m

ean

min

imal

nee

d to

co

mm

ute

outs

ide

the

neig

hbou

rhoo

d.

4.

Peo

ple

pref

er a

pplia

nces

, fur

nitu

re a

nd c

loth

es to

be

sold

as

serv

ices

. Mai

nten

ance

an

d ad

apta

tion

serv

ices

are

impr

oved

and

they

sig

nific

antly

pro

long

the

lifec

ycle

of

prod

ucts

.

5.

Con

sum

ers

can

no lo

nger

mak

e m

ista

kes:

pol

icie

s bu

ilt o

n sc

ient

ifica

lly b

acke

d en

vi-

ronm

enta

l and

hea

lth o

bjec

tives

elim

inat

e ba

d ch

oice

s.

6.

Peo

ple

eat o

ut m

ore.

Bet

ter f

ood

serv

ices

ens

ure

a he

alth

y di

et, a

djus

t por

tions

to

optim

al s

ize,

elim

inat

e fo

od w

aste

and

hel

p pe

ople

focu

s on

thei

r wor

k an

d so

cial

life

.

Food

, ene

rgy

and

co

nstr

uctio

n co

mpa

nies

…fo

cus

on lo

cal a

ltern

ativ

es

and

loca

l mar

kets

to o

ffer

se-

cure

cho

ices

.

App

lianc

e in

dust

ry…

turn

s to

war

ds b

usin

ess

mod

els

that

take

loca

l con

text

into

acc

ount

an

d in

clud

e re

pair

in th

eir

prod

ucts

.

Ser

vice

indu

stry

…le

ases

pro

duct

s th

at w

ere

prev

i-ou

sly

avai

labl

e on

ly a

s pu

rcha

ses

and

crea

tes

a le

asin

g ec

onom

y.

Pro

fess

ion

spec

ific

net-

wor

ks a

nd a

ssoc

iatio

ns…

ackn

owle

dge

thei

r ca

paci

ty a

nd

inlu

ence

as

expe

rts

and

netw

orks

w

ho h

ave

a sh

ared

resp

onsi

bilit

y to

so

ciet

y.

The

aver

age

mat

eria

l foo

tpri

nt o

f a E

urop

ean

in 2

050

in t

he L

ocal

Loo

ps s

cena

rio

(800

0 kg

per

per

son

in a

yea

r)

com

pare

d to

the

ave

rage

mat

eria

l foo

tpri

nt in

200

7 (2

9 00

0 kg

).

Mob

ility

(d

aily

and

tour

ism

) 15

00 k

g

Food

33

00 k

g

Hou

sing

: bu

ildin

g 13

00 k

g

Oth

ers

700

kg

Hou

sing

: el

ectr

icity

40

0 kg

Pro

duct

co

nsum

ptio

n 40

0 kg

Leis

ure

tim

e 40

0 kg

Page 45: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 4

5

Em

path

etic

C

omm

uniti

es

Crit

ical

cha

lleng

es a

nd s

olut

ions

in

the

scen

ario

Loc

al L

oops

Q1.

H

ow t

o av

oid

biod

iver

sity

dec

line

and

soil

fert

ility

loss

cau

sed

by

loca

l res

ourc

e ov

erus

e an

d co

mpe

titio

n fo

r la

nd a

lloca

tion

be

twee

n en

ergy

and

food

pro

duct

ion?

1.

Ther

e is

str

ict r

egul

atio

n ba

sed

on g

loba

l tre

atie

s on

bio

dive

rsity

an

d ot

her e

nviro

nmen

tal i

ssue

s. T

hese

trea

ties

are

linke

d to

a g

loba

l tr

adin

g sc

hem

e on

the

limits

of g

loba

lly tr

aded

com

mod

ities

. Reg

u-la

tion

ensu

res

that

eve

ryw

here

10%

of t

he la

nd a

nd w

ater

are

as a

re

prot

ecte

d as

bio

dive

rsity

rese

rve.

Thi

s lim

its th

e us

e of

thes

e ar

eas

for b

uild

ing,

farm

ing,

tran

spor

tatio

n or

recr

eatio

nal u

se.

2.

Livi

ng in

resi

lient

mid

-siz

ed to

wns

with

sur

roun

ding

pro

duct

ion

area

s an

d na

ture

rese

rves

mak

e pe

ople

aw

are

of a

nd a

ble

to e

njoy

bio

di-

vers

ity a

nd d

iffer

ent t

ypes

of l

ivin

g ec

osys

tem

ser

vice

s.

3.

Valu

es o

f loc

alis

m s

teer

peo

ple

to fa

vour

loca

l tou

rism

. Loc

al b

iodi

-ve

rsity

rese

rves

com

e to

hav

e gr

eat r

ecre

atio

nal s

igni

fican

ce a

nd to

be

sou

rces

of r

egio

nal p

ride.

4.

Bre

akth

roug

hs in

sol

ar te

chno

logy

ena

ble

roof

s, w

alls

and

win

dow

s to

be

used

as

loca

l, cu

stom

ized

mea

ns o

f ene

rgy

prod

uctio

n. L

o-ca

lly d

evel

oped

tech

nolo

gies

offe

r ref

eren

ce s

olut

ions

.

Q2.

H

ow t

o av

oid

inef

ficie

ncie

s th

at r

esul

t fr

om t

he d

ecre

ase

in

gl

obal

com

petit

ion?

1.

Tech

nolo

gy fo

cuse

s on

loca

l, bo

ttom

up

solu

tions

that

use

reso

urc-

es e

ffici

ently

as

a re

sult

of h

igh

expe

rtis

e an

d ex

perie

nce

of lo

cal

prof

essi

onal

s. B

ench

mar

k ca

ses

on b

est s

olut

ions

are

pro

vide

d w

ith

publ

ic s

uppo

rt a

nd a

re o

pen

for e

very

one

to u

tilis

e.

2.

Loca

l mai

nten

ance

, reu

se a

nd re

cycl

ing

serv

ices

are

wid

ely

avai

labl

e an

d su

ppor

ted

by p

rodu

ct d

esig

n. P

eopl

e fa

vor t

he u

se o

f the

se

serv

ices

. Lon

gevi

ty a

nd u

ser-

cent

ric ta

ilorin

g of

pro

duct

s is

ens

ured

by

a b

road

rang

e of

loca

l pro

fess

iona

ls.

Q3.

H

ow t

o av

oid

stat

us c

ompe

titio

n ba

sed

on m

ater

ial c

onsu

mp-

tion

trig

gere

d by

elit

es a

nd t

heir

acc

ess

to n

atur

al r

esou

rces

?

1.

Wor

k is

see

n as

a m

ore

inte

rest

ing

field

for s

tatu

s co

mpe

titio

n th

an

cons

umpt

ion,

whi

ch fu

rthe

r str

engt

hens

the

impe

tus

to u

se m

ore

serv

ices

inst

ead

of m

ater

ial g

oods

.

2.

Peo

ple

valu

e lo

cal,

serv

ice-

base

d co

nsum

ptio

n an

d ar

e aw

are

of it

s ro

le a

s th

e en

gine

of t

he lo

cal e

cono

my.

3.

Tigh

t gui

ld a

nd n

eigh

bour

hood

com

mun

ities

resu

lt in

sha

red

owne

r-sh

ip o

f goo

ds a

nd s

pace

s so

that

peo

ple’

s ho

mes

are

sm

alle

r and

le

ss e

quip

ped.

Peo

ple

appr

ecia

te in

divi

dual

and

tailo

red,

long

-livi

ng

prod

ucts

mai

ntai

ned

and

pers

onal

ized

by

the

loca

l ser

vice

pro

vid-

ers.

4.

As

a re

sult

of th

e in

secu

rity

caus

ed b

y pe

ak o

il an

d gl

obal

reso

urce

us

e, p

eopl

e ha

ve p

lace

d th

eir t

rust

in e

xper

t-or

ient

ed lo

cal d

ecis

ion-

mak

ing.

Peo

ple

appr

ecia

te tr

ansp

aren

t Loc

al L

oops

and

trus

t in

the

self-

regu

latio

n of

gui

lds.

Page 46: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

46 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Em

path

etic

C

omm

uniti

es

cal i

nnov

atio

n ar

e en

joye

d, a

lthou

gh p

eopl

e in

ge

nera

l foc

us o

n co

mm

unic

atin

g an

d de

velo

ping

so

lutio

ns o

n th

e lo

cal l

evel

.

The

brea

kdow

n of

the

econ

omic

sys

tem

and

na-

tion

stat

es h

as it

s ro

ots

in re

sour

ce c

onst

rain

ts,

decl

ine

in tr

ust i

n fin

anci

al in

stitu

tions

and

the

publ

ic d

ebt c

risis

. Man

y Eu

rope

an re

gion

s ne

ver

reco

vere

d an

d a

grow

ing

num

ber o

f peo

ple

face

d di

fficu

lties

find

ing

jobs

, inc

ome

and

livel

yhoo

ds.

Incr

ease

d ris

ks in

the

finan

cial

mar

kets

led

to

dram

atic

inte

rest

rate

hik

es, w

hich

dro

ve s

ever

al

maj

or in

dust

ries

into

ban

krup

tcy

and

evok

ed a

br

eakd

own

of v

alue

cha

ins.

Mos

t of t

he g

over

nmen

ts c

ould

sim

ply

not a

fford

to

bai

l out

thes

e co

mpa

nies

as

they

had

bef

ore.

Th

e re

sult

was

a p

oliti

cal c

risis

whe

re c

abin

ets

step

ped

dow

n an

d th

e fo

rmat

ion

of n

ew, t

rust

ed

gove

rnm

ent t

urne

d ou

t to

be im

poss

ible

. Whe

n bo

th th

e ec

onom

y an

d na

tiona

l pol

itics

wer

e in

a

stat

e of

par

alys

is, p

eopl

e st

arte

d or

gani

sing

”P

lan

B”

solu

tions

on

loca

l and

regi

onal

leve

ls. T

his

deve

lopm

ent p

ushe

d fo

rwar

d re

form

s th

at h

elpe

d co

mpa

nies

, ind

ivid

uals

and

loca

l aut

horit

ies

to re

-fo

cus

on n

urtu

ring

the

loca

l eco

nom

y. G

radu

ally

ci

ties

and

tow

ns in

crea

sed

thei

r pol

itica

l pow

er

over

dys

func

tiona

l nat

ion

stat

es.

The

birt

h of

a s

ocie

ty o

f Em

path

etic

Com

mun

ities

w

as n

ot, h

owev

er, o

nly

the

resu

lt of

an

econ

omic

cr

isis

. In

the

early

202

0s a

new

vie

w o

n hu

man

na

ture

sta

rted

to g

ain

popu

larit

y. N

ew re

sear

ch a

t th

at ti

me

show

ed a

n in

crea

sing

am

ount

of e

vi-

denc

e on

gen

uine

ly a

ltrui

stic

feat

ures

in p

rimat

e an

d hu

man

beh

avio

ur. T

he w

ay p

eopl

e pe

rcei

ved

thei

r ow

n pl

ace

at w

ork,

in th

eir c

omm

unity

, in

thei

r fa

mili

es a

nd in

soc

iety

at l

arge

sta

rted

to c

hang

e.

New

type

s of

col

labo

ratio

ns a

nd in

nova

tion

both

te

chno

logi

cal a

nd s

ocia

l, em

erge

d an

d he

lped

pe

ople

to re

form

pol

itica

l dec

isio

n-m

akin

g an

d w

orkp

lace

pra

ctic

es. T

his

crea

ted

huge

effi

cien

cy

gain

s in

org

aniz

atio

ns. C

ompa

red

to p

rece

ding

ge

nera

tions

, peo

ple

in 2

050

feel

that

col

labo

ratin

g an

d sh

arin

g du

ties,

spa

ces

and

good

s w

ith o

ther

pe

ople

is a

nat

ural

and

ple

asan

t par

t of t

heir

life.

The

sim

ulta

neou

s de

clin

e of

nat

ion

stat

es a

nd

the

glob

al e

cono

my,

toge

ther

with

the

new

rise

of

colla

bora

tive

norm

s in

all

aspe

cts

of h

uman

life

, ga

ve im

petu

s to

new

loca

l gov

erna

nce

mod

els.

D

urin

g an

era

of h

igh

unem

ploy

men

t man

y pe

o-pl

e st

arte

d ex

plor

ing

new

and

alte

rnat

ive

way

s to

im

prov

e liv

ing

cond

ition

s fo

r the

mse

lves

and

thei

r pe

ers.

Hun

dred

s of

exp

erim

ents

with

loca

l ene

rgy

and

food

pro

duct

ion,

ene

rgy

retr

ofitt

ing

and

dif-

fere

nt ty

pes

of p

eer-

to-p

eer s

ervi

ces

prov

isio

n st

arte

d to

take

pla

ce a

ll ov

er E

urop

e. G

radu

ally

th

ese

proj

ects

gre

w in

to la

rger

loca

l ini

tiativ

es in

w

hich

ent

repr

eneu

rs, c

omm

unity

lead

ers,

civ

il se

rvan

ts a

nd p

oliti

cian

s jo

ined

forc

es to

bui

ld th

e ne

w fo

unda

tions

for a

loca

l eco

nom

y. C

oope

ra-

tives

dev

elop

ed s

tep

by s

tep

into

pro

vide

rs o

f lo-

cal e

duca

tion,

hea

lth a

nd s

ocia

l ser

vice

s, s

ourc

es

of s

econ

dary

inco

me

and

plat

form

s fo

r loc

al

infr

astr

uctu

re a

nd c

onst

ruct

ion

proj

ects

.

In E

mpa

thet

ic C

omm

uniti

es p

eopl

e sp

end

a gr

eat

part

of t

heir

leis

ure

time

in a

ctiv

ities

that

take

pl

ace

with

in th

eir n

eigh

bour

hood

. It i

s th

roug

h th

ese

gath

erin

gs th

at c

o-cr

eate

d in

nova

tions

de-

Alte

rnat

ive

Sus

tain

able

S

ocie

ty 4

: Sup

porti

ng 8

000

kg

S

usta

inab

le L

ifest

yles

Em

path

etic

Com

mun

ities

is a

sce

nario

whe

re

Wes

tern

soc

ietie

s fa

ced

a cr

isis

they

had

long

dr

eade

d, a

nd h

ow th

e ch

ange

turn

ed o

ut to

be

easi

er a

nd m

ore

frui

tful

than

any

one

had

expe

ct-

ed. I

t is

a st

ory

in w

hich

the

glob

al e

cono

my

as

we

knew

it in

201

2 fa

ils, f

ollo

wed

by

para

lysi

s of

na

tion

stat

es a

nd th

eir

polit

ical

dec

isio

n-m

akin

g st

ruct

ures

. By

2050

this

all

lead

s to

life

styl

es in

w

hich

the

com

mun

ity a

nd n

eigh

bour

hood

s ha

ve

an im

port

ant r

ole

in e

very

day

life.

New

form

s of

col

labo

ratio

n an

d go

vern

ance

gro

w o

n th

e le

vel o

f citi

es a

nd to

wns

mak

ing

them

the

mos

t po

wer

ful l

evel

of p

ublic

dec

isio

n-m

akin

g. In

Em

-pa

thet

ic C

omm

uniti

es th

e m

any

frui

ts o

f glo

bal

cultu

re a

nd a

dvan

cem

ents

in la

test

tech

nolo

gi-

Sin

gula

r

Sup

er C

ham

pion

s

Loca

l Loo

ps

Gov

erni

ng

the

Com

mon

s

Em

path

etic

C

omm

uniti

es

Pan

dem

ic te

chno

logy

Ende

mic

tech

nolo

gy

Human-centrism

Meritocracy

Page 47: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 4

7

Wha

t is

life

like

in th

e Em

path

etic

Com

mun

ities

?

Wha

t ch

ange

s be

twee

n 20

12 a

nd 2

050?

Edu

catio

nEd

ucat

ion

and

lear

ning

are

pro

blem

-bas

ed a

nd c

olla

bora

tion-

driv

en.

Wor

kW

ork

happ

ens

colla

bora

tivel

y in

hub

s an

d pe

ople

lear

n th

roug

h as

king

for i

nput

from

col

leag

ues.

Han

ds-o

n w

ork

is h

ighl

y va

lued

. W

ork

is n

eigh

bour

hood

-bas

ed a

nd a

ims

at c

ontr

ibut

ing

to th

e co

mm

unity

.

City

Villa

ge in

fill f

rom

spr

awl t

o fa

rm v

illag

e. P

arki

ng lo

ts a

re tu

rned

into

pla

ces

of fo

od p

rodu

ctio

n. T

he p

ublic

spa

ce g

ains

gre

at s

igni

fican

ce.

Villa

ges

with

in c

ities

are

key

ele

men

ts in

the

urba

n fa

bric

.

Hea

lthP

arad

igm

of q

ualit

y ov

er q

uant

ity c

hara

cter

izes

the

heal

th-c

are

syst

em. T

his

mea

ns th

at th

e m

eani

ngfu

lnes

s of

a p

erso

n’s

lifes

pan

is

seen

as

mor

e im

port

ant t

han

the

amou

nt o

f yea

rs li

ved.

Loc

al a

dmin

istr

atio

n pr

iorit

izes

hea

lth-c

are

and

heal

thy

livin

g.

Ever

y m

unic

ipal

ity h

as a

hos

pita

l. H

ealth

y-liv

ing-

circ

les

shar

e pr

even

tativ

e kn

owle

dge

loca

lly.

Livi

ngFa

rmin

g op

port

uniti

es ra

ise

prop

erty

val

ues.

Peo

ple

live

in s

hare

d ap

artm

ents

and

mak

e us

e of

sha

red

spac

es.

Food

Gro

win

g fo

od in

urb

an fa

rmin

g ci

rcle

s m

eets

loca

l foo

d de

man

d. F

ood

tran

spor

tatio

n ne

eds

are

very

low

. In

add

ition

to p

rodu

ctio

n, h

igh

impo

rtan

ce is

als

o pl

aced

on

food

qua

lity,

and

dis

trib

utio

n.

Mob

ility

Lo

cal m

obili

ty is

em

phas

ized

and

less

road

spa

ce is

dev

oted

for p

rivat

e ve

hicl

es. O

ld a

nd n

ew in

fras

truc

ture

is a

dapt

ed to

cyc

ling.

Con

sum

ptio

nC

onsu

mpt

ion

is g

eare

d to

war

ds m

eetin

g pe

ople

’s b

asic

nee

ds. S

harin

g, s

wap

ping

and

rent

ing

succ

eed

priv

ate

owne

rshi

p.

Eco

nom

yTh

e ec

onom

y is

org

aniz

ed a

roun

d th

e se

lf-su

ffici

ency

of s

mal

l uni

ts. F

ood

prod

uctio

n is

prio

ritiz

ed. E

xper

imen

tatio

n ha

ppen

s on

the

loca

l le

vel a

nd h

igh

valu

e is

giv

en to

com

mun

ity a

ctiv

ities

.

Sen

se o

f sec

urity

Sen

se o

f sec

urity

is g

ener

ated

by

com

mun

ities

, clo

sed

circ

les,

coo

pera

tives

as

wel

l as

by h

ealth

and

food

circ

les.

PP

P-s

yste

ms

guar

an-

tee

part

icip

atio

n an

d se

nse

of o

wne

rshi

p in

pub

lic a

nd s

ocia

l affa

irs.

Leis

ure

time

Leis

ure

time

is m

ostly

pub

lic a

nd u

sed

for s

ocia

l act

iviti

es, e

.g. i

n ga

rden

ing

circ

les.

Vac

atio

ns p

rovi

de ti

me

for s

elf-

refle

ctio

n.

Empa

thet

ic C

omm

uniti

es s

cena

rio

narr

ativ

e –

how

did

it a

ll ha

ppen

?

»Th

e sy

stem

bre

aks

dow

n »

“We

can”

gen

erat

ion

wor

ks

toge

ther

»P

ublic

, priv

ate

and

peop

le (P

PP

) –

the

new

wel

fare

»C

omm

uniti

satio

n of

urb

an p

lann

ing

Thes

e dr

iver

s ar

e de

pict

ed a

s ev

ents

on

the

timel

ine.

velo

p. T

his

in tu

rn c

reat

es n

ew ty

pes

of (e

cono

m-

ic) a

ctiv

ity. F

requ

ent e

ncou

nter

s in

pub

lic s

pace

s cr

eate

opp

ortu

nitie

s fo

r ide

as a

nd in

itiat

ives

on

new

col

labo

rativ

e pr

ojec

ts, s

ervi

ces

and

busi

-ne

sses

. Dai

ly p

ract

ices

and

life

styl

es a

re fo

rmed

st

rong

ly a

roun

d co

llect

ive

activ

ities

and

sha

ring.

One

of t

he g

reat

est c

hang

es p

eopl

e ex

perie

nced

ov

er o

ne g

ener

atio

n re

late

s to

the

use

of th

eir

surr

ound

ings

and

phy

sica

l inf

rast

ruct

ure.

Peo

-pl

e un

ders

tand

cou

rtya

rds,

str

eets

and

diff

eren

t ty

pes

of s

hare

d in

door

-spa

ces

as s

omet

hing

that

is

in th

eir s

hare

d po

sses

sion

and

in a

ctiv

e us

e.

How

are

sus

tain

able

lif

esty

les

achi

eved

?Th

e br

eakd

own

of th

e gl

obal

mar

ket e

cono

my

chan

ged

peop

le’s

live

s pe

rman

ently

. As

glob

al

and

natio

nal s

truc

ture

s co

uld

no lo

nger

be

trus

t-ed

, peo

ple

incr

easi

ngly

turn

ed to

look

afte

r the

m-

selv

es a

nd e

ach

othe

r. C

omm

uniti

es a

nd n

eigh

-bo

urho

ods

beca

me

key

elem

ents

in p

eopl

e’s

lives

as

glob

al tr

ansa

ctio

ns d

ecre

ase

in n

umbe

r. A

part

men

ts a

nd p

ublic

spa

ces

are

shar

ed a

nd

used

for m

any

func

tions

.

Ther

e is

a re

al s

carc

ity o

f ene

rgy,

food

and

man

y ot

her p

rodu

cts

in E

mpa

thet

ic C

omm

uniti

es.

Whe

n pr

ices

soa

r to

ridic

ulou

sly

expe

nsiv

e le

vels

ne

w s

olut

ions

sta

rt to

em

erge

. Afte

r all,

peo

ple

still

hav

e th

e hi

gh s

kill-

leve

ls a

nd a

cces

s to

info

r-m

atio

n th

at in

dust

rial a

nd k

now

ledg

e ec

onom

ies

deliv

ered

in th

e 20

th c

entu

ry. P

eopl

e an

d th

eir

com

mun

ities

lear

ned

to c

ope

with

new

circ

um-

stan

ces

and

som

e of

the

mos

t was

tefu

l life

styl

es

patt

erns

wer

e ab

ando

ned.

The

infr

astr

uctu

re in

Em

path

etic

Com

mun

ities

is

mai

nly

the

sam

e in

205

0 as

it w

as in

201

2. H

ow-

ever

, wha

t has

cha

nged

is th

e w

ay it

is u

sed.

For

ex

ampl

e tr

ansp

orta

tion

and

mob

ility

is o

f litt

le

sign

ifica

nce.

Hen

ce, s

tree

ts a

nd ro

ads

built

in th

e 20

th c

entu

ry a

nd in

ear

ly 2

1st c

entu

ry, a

re e

ither

tr

ansf

orm

ed to

farm

ing

land

or a

djus

ted

to s

up-

port

hea

lthy

mob

ility

, suc

h as

cyc

ling

and

wal

king

.

Ther

e is

sm

art h

ousi

ng d

esig

n an

d di

vers

e re

tro-

fittin

g of

exi

stin

g bu

ildin

gs. A

s gl

obal

pro

duct

ion

chai

ns lo

se s

igni

fican

ce, l

ocal

pro

duct

ion

rises

in

impo

rtan

ce. F

ood

and

othe

r nec

essi

ties

are

pro-

vide

d lo

cally

. Urb

an fa

rmin

g sp

read

s ev

eryw

here

. P

eopl

e he

lpin

g on

e an

othe

r bec

omes

an

esse

n-

tial e

lem

ent o

f the

soc

iety

and

a g

uidi

ng p

rinci

ple

for e

very

day

life.

Citi

es fr

agm

ent i

nto

villa

ges

that

ai

m fo

r sel

f-su

ffici

ency

mea

ning

that

food

peo

ple

eat i

s se

ason

al a

nd lo

cally

gro

wn.

Page 48: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

48 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

The

syst

em b

reak

s do

wn

The

“We

can”

gen

erat

ion

w

orks

toge

ther

Pub

lic, p

rivat

e an

d pe

ople

(PP

P)

– th

e ne

w w

elfa

re m

odel

Com

mun

itisa

tion

of u

rban

pla

nnin

g

2015

: Une

mpl

oym

ent i

n m

any

Euro

pean

cou

n-tr

ies

and

in th

e U

SA

rem

ains

hig

h du

e to

the

ef-

fect

s of

aus

terit

y m

easu

res

on p

ublic

bud

gets

, an

d be

caus

e of

a h

esita

nt m

ood

in th

e bu

si-

ness

wor

ld, a

n ag

eing

poo

l of c

onsu

mer

s an

d a

cont

inui

ng d

eclin

e in

man

ufac

turin

g jo

bs.

2015

: A n

ew te

levi

sion

sho

w fo

rmat

, “Th

e A

ltrui

st”,

turn

s ou

t to

be a

hug

e su

cces

s al

l ove

r the

wor

ld. T

he c

once

pt is

cre

ated

in th

e N

ethe

rland

s, b

ut

with

in c

oupl

e of

yea

rs it

spr

eads

acr

oss

Euro

pe a

nd b

ecom

es lo

caliz

ed. C

on-

trar

y to

the

hund

reds

of c

ompe

titiv

e TV

-sho

w fo

rmat

s of

the

past

50

year

s,

the

show

cel

ebra

tes

empa

thy

and

the

capa

city

for c

olla

bora

tion.

For

man

y,

this

sym

boliz

es a

turn

ing

poin

t in

prev

ailin

g th

inki

ng a

bout

hum

an n

atur

e.

2015

: The

org

aniz

atio

n of

wor

k ch

ange

s du

e to

lo

ng re

cess

ion

and

high

une

mpl

oym

ent.

Mor

e an

d m

ore

peop

le s

tart

to w

ork

outs

ide

of tr

adi-

tiona

l com

pani

es.

2016

: A la

rge

publ

ic s

timul

us p

acka

ge is

ann

ounc

ed in

sup

port

of d

evel

op-

ing

urba

n ha

bita

ts. I

t is

aim

ed a

t im

prov

ing

publ

ic s

pace

, bas

ic tr

ansp

orta

-tio

n an

d en

ergy

infr

astr

uctu

re, e

spec

ially

in n

eigh

bour

hood

s bu

ilt in

the

seco

nd h

alf o

f the

20t

h ce

ntur

y. T

he ra

tiona

le b

ehin

d it

is to

ena

ble

the

crea

tion

of lo

cal s

ervi

ce e

cono

mie

s th

roug

h th

e cr

eatio

n of

mor

e at

trac

tive

publ

ic s

pace

s an

d em

ploy

ing

peop

le to

do

cons

truc

tion

wor

k.

2017

: The

hig

h pr

ice

of

ener

gy a

nd o

ther

nat

ural

re

sour

ces

affe

cts

hous

e-ho

ld b

udge

ts w

ith p

rices

of

food

, mob

ility

and

el

ectr

icity

soa

ring.

2018

: Peo

ple’

s in

tere

st in

st

udyi

ng e

xam

ples

and

ex

perim

enta

l pro

ject

s ar

ound

the

“sci

ence

of

empa

thy

and

com

pas-

sion

” gr

ows

rapi

dly.

2018

: GD

P is

repl

aced

with

mor

e ad

equa

te in

dica

tors

for t

rack

ing

soci

al d

evel

opm

ent a

nd p

rogr

ess

in s

usta

inab

ility

. Hea

lth, h

appi

-ne

ss a

nd a

n in

divi

dual

’s e

colo

gica

l fo

otpr

int a

re a

mon

g th

e as

pect

s m

easu

red.

2018

: Peo

ple

in m

any

regi

ons

are

stim

ulat

ed to

find

new

way

s to

sec

ure

inco

me,

bui

lt on

mut

ual h

elp

and

af-

ford

able

acc

ess

to b

asic

reso

urce

s su

ch a

s en

ergy

and

food

. The

resu

lt is

a

new

boo

m in

coo

pera

tives

that

em

-pl

oy p

eopl

e an

d he

lp th

em to

cre

ate

loca

l ver

sion

s of

sus

tain

able

life

styl

es.

“I k

now

a lo

t abo

ut e

asy

and

cost

-effi

cien

t ene

rgy

retr

ofitt

ing

jobs

suc

h as

insu

latio

n. O

ur c

o-op

erat

ive

is v

ery

good

at t

hese

qu

ick

fixes

and

we

enjo

y sh

arin

g ou

r kn

owle

dge

with

the

com

-m

unity

.”

I get

mos

t of m

y da

ily g

ro-

cerie

s th

roug

h ur

ban

farm

-in

g po

ols

that

exi

st a

roun

d th

e ci

ty. S

ome

of th

e fo

od I

rece

ive

dire

ctly

from

our

nei

ghbo

ur-

hood

gar

den.

I on

ly b

uy fr

om s

uper

-m

arke

ts w

hat I

can

not g

et e

asily

get

th

roug

h th

ese

chan

nels

.

2

015

Toge

ther

with

my

fam

ily, I

par

-tic

ipat

e in

hug

e de

mon

stra

tions

to

supp

ort e

nerg

y ef

ficie

nt

polic

ies

and

prot

est

agai

nst t

he in

abili

ty o

f go

vern

men

t to

pro

vide

pe

ople

with

a

dece

nt li

veli-

hood

in th

is

era

of e

xpen

-si

ve o

il.

Her

e in

Nijm

egen

chi

ldre

n gr

ow u

p pa

rtic

ipat

ing

in c

omm

unal

act

iviti

es fr

om

a yo

ung

age

as p

art o

f the

loca

l soc

ial

envi

ronm

ent.

Lear

ning

by

doin

g is

em

pha-

sise

d.

Mix

of n

ew a

ctiv

e co

nstr

uctio

ns

Insu

latio

n ba

sed

on D

IY s

olut

ions

Ret

rofit

ted

pa

ssiv

e ho

usin

g

Page 49: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 4

9

2020

: Due

to h

igh

unem

ploy

-m

ent a

nd ri

sing

pric

es, p

eopl

e ha

ve ti

me

to s

tart

exp

erim

ent-

ing

with

loca

l pro

duct

ion

of

ener

gy a

nd fo

od.

2021

: New

mod

els

of lo

cal

colla

bora

tion

emer

ge a

roun

d en

ergy

and

food

saf

ety.

2020

: App

licat

ions

of t

he S

ci-

ence

of E

mpa

thy

have

had

a

sign

ifica

nt s

uppo

rtiv

e im

pact

on

suc

h fie

lds

as c

olla

bora

tive

cons

umpt

ion

and

the

orga

nisa

-tio

n of

wor

k.

2025

: As

the

‘Tw

in c

risis

’ of

finan

cial

mar

kets

and

nat

iona

l po

litic

s pe

rsis

ts fo

r sev

eral

ye

ars,

an

incr

easi

ng n

umbe

r of

tow

ns d

ecid

e th

at e

nerg

y an

d fo

od s

ecur

ity m

ust b

e ad

-dr

esse

d th

roug

h ne

w p

olic

ies

and

way

s of

org

aniz

ing

at th

e lo

cal l

evel

.

2025

: A n

ew E

urop

e-w

ide

netw

ork

of “

villa

ges

in to

wns

” is

est

ab-

lishe

d. M

embe

rs o

f the

net

wor

k es

tabl

ish

urba

n fa

rmin

g co

oper

a-tiv

es in

thei

r nei

ghbo

urho

ods

and

star

t neg

otia

ting

with

mun

icip

ali-

ties,

real

-est

ate

owne

rs a

nd in

hab-

itant

s fo

r acc

ess

to u

nder

-use

d la

nd fo

r far

min

g pu

rpos

es.

“Mos

t of t

he s

pace

out

side

our

bui

ldin

g is

for

farm

-in

g us

e. W

e ha

d to

pay

a s

ubst

antia

l am

ount

for

a pl

ot to

gro

w o

ur fo

od, b

ut n

ow w

e pr

oduc

e en

ough

fo

r ou

r ne

ighb

ours

, as

wel

l.”

2

020

2

02

5

2024

: Gov

ernm

ents

are

una

ble

to h

elp

bank

s ou

t of

inso

lven

cy. S

tock

mar

kets

are

clo

sed

and

re-o

pene

d ag

ain,

sev

eral

tim

es. G

over

nmen

ts fa

il to

cre

ate

poli-

cies

that

wou

ld h

elp

the

mar

kets

out

of t

he c

risis

.

2022

: The

fina

ncia

l mar

kets

face

sev

ere

cris

is. S

ever

al b

ig b

anks

col

laps

e as

a

resu

lt of

the

bank

rupt

cies

of b

ig c

ompa

nies

, the

bub

ble

in e

nerg

y m

arke

ts,

turm

oil i

n re

al e

stat

e m

arke

ts, u

ncon

trol

led

risk-

taki

ng a

nd p

erve

rse

ince

ntiv

es

for m

anag

ers

and

CEO

s w

orki

ng in

hed

ge fu

nds.

I use

d to

wor

k in

the

finan

ce

sect

or, b

ut I

gain

ed a

nd lo

st

mon

ey a

t an

incr

edib

le s

peed

, w

hich

led

to a

hor

rible

per

-so

nal s

ituat

ion.

I w

ant t

o w

ork

hand

s-on

from

now

on.

At s

choo

l, ki

ds w

ant t

o do

thei

r ho

mew

ork

and

even

exa

ms

toge

ther

with

oth

er k

ids.

Thi

s is

be

caus

e th

e hu

gely

po

pula

r TV

ser

ies

Th

e A

ltrui

st is

run

ning

in

its

fifth

yea

r an

d is

bei

ng c

opie

d in

sc

hool

s.

Mic

ro-p

rodu

cers

of f

ood

are

orga

nise

d in

co-

ops

that

al

low

them

to tr

ade

food

on

a ve

ry lo

cal b

asis

. The

se

netw

orks

bec

ome

huge

ly p

opul

ar in

eve

ryda

y lif

e.

Opt

imiz

atio

n of

or

char

d sp

ace

Form

er s

tree

t tr

ansf

orm

ed

into

orc

hard

Page 50: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

50 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

The

syst

em b

reak

s do

wn

The

“We

can”

gen

erat

ion

wor

ks to

geth

er

Pub

lic, p

rivat

e an

d pe

ople

(PP

P)

– th

e ne

w w

elfa

re m

odel

Com

mun

itisa

tion

of u

rban

pla

nnin

g

20

30

2028

: “Vi

llage

s in

tow

ns”

star

t to

deve

lop

loca

l nut

ri-tio

n cy

cles

thro

ugh

colle

ctin

g or

gani

c w

aste

and

hel

ping

inha

bita

nts

build

thei

r ow

n dr

y-to

ilets

. Th

e id

ea o

f tow

n vi

llage

s sp

read

s fa

st a

nd s

oon

shap

es th

e ge

ogra

phy

of m

any

Euro

pean

tow

ns a

nd c

ities

.

2028

: The

abs

ence

of d

ynam

ic g

loba

l m

arke

ts re

sults

in e

xtre

me

ener

gy a

nd

food

sca

rcity

. Peo

ple

rely

on

thei

r im

me-

diat

e ci

rcle

to g

uara

ntee

acc

ess

to fo

od

and

othe

r bas

ic c

omm

oditi

es. P

rodu

cts

are

used

as

effic

ient

ly a

s po

ssib

le.

2030

: The

mos

t suc

cess

ful m

odifi

-ca

tions

of t

he n

ew P

ublic

-Priv

ate-

Peo

ple-

mod

el (P

PP

) gai

n pl

enty

of

atte

ntio

n at

a ti

me

whe

n m

ost o

f the

re

gion

s of

Eur

ope

are

ham

pere

d by

ro

cket

ing

ener

gy a

nd fo

od p

rices

an

d oc

casi

onal

sho

rtag

es.

2030

: Whi

le la

ck o

f bot

h pu

blic

and

pr

ivat

e m

oney

in R

&D

slo

ws

dow

n th

e di

ssem

inat

ion

of n

ew in

nova

-tio

ns, a

pplic

atio

ns o

f the

‘tec

hnol

ogy

of e

mpa

thy’

see

m to

be

an e

xcep

tion

and

they

pic

k up

pac

e in

com

paris

on

to o

ther

fiel

ds.

“Whe

n w

e ha

ve d

ays

off w

e lik

e to

find

a h

ost f

amily

in th

e fa

rmin

g lo

ops

near

by. I

cyc

le

ther

e w

ith m

y hu

sban

d an

d ki

ds.”

I am

rea

lly lo

okin

g fo

rwar

d to

the

BB

Q n

ight

nex

t wee

k.

I lik

e it

whe

n co

-hou

sing

co

mm

uniti

es d

ecid

e to

co

ok a

nd e

at to

geth

er o

n a

regu

lar

basi

s. T

his

build

s co

mm

unity

resi

lienc

e.

I do

mos

t of m

y w

ork

at h

ub-

like

offic

e sp

aces

that

exi

st

ever

ywhe

re. I

like

thes

e co

llab-

orat

ion

spac

es a

s I fi

nd th

em

stim

ulat

ing.

The

y sp

ur o

n ne

w

inno

vatio

ns a

s I m

eet m

ore

and

mor

e ne

w p

eopl

e.

2026

: In

man

y co

untr

ies

gove

rnm

ents

resi

gn

and

it tu

rns

out t

o be

impo

ssib

le to

form

new

co

aliti

ons,

whi

ch p

aral

yzes

nat

iona

l pol

itics

and

pu

blic

inve

stm

ents

.

2027

: Giv

en th

e hi

gh a

nd p

ersi

sten

t une

mpl

oym

ent,

man

y lo

cal c

omm

uniti

es h

ave

adop

ted

new

pra

ctic

es fo

r pee

r-to

-pee

r net

wor

king

bas

ed o

n th

e la

test

und

erst

andi

ng o

f peo

ple’

s ca

pabi

lity

for e

mpa

thy

and

colla

bora

tion.

The

shi

ft fro

m o

wne

rshi

p to

acc

ess

is fo

ster

ed. T

his

mea

ns m

ore

and

mor

e pr

oduc

ts a

re s

hare

d an

d co

nsum

ptio

n is

ve

ry n

eeds

-bas

ed.

2028

: Vis

iona

ry p

oliti

cian

s, e

ntre

pren

eurs

and

ci

vic

lead

ers

gath

er a

nd u

nite

loca

l (hu

man

, ma-

teria

l and

fina

ncia

l) re

sour

ces

to re

form

exi

stin

g in

fras

truc

ture

and

ser

vice

pro

visi

on to

mat

ch th

e ne

w p

oliti

cal r

ealit

y.

My

mon

thly

out

put o

f soi

l is

enou

gh to

sup

port

my

own

farm

ing

need

s. I

get m

y so

il th

roug

h m

y su

per-

effic

ient

dr

y to

ilet a

nd c

ompo

st.

Hea

lth is

of t

he h

ighe

st

impo

rtan

ce in

loca

l ad-

min

istr

atio

n an

d in

eve

ry

mun

icip

ality

her

e in

the

Net

herla

nds,

as

it is

in a

ll ot

her

Eur

opea

n co

untr

ies.

Page 51: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 5

1

2

03

5

2035

: Tow

ns a

nd re

gion

al c

ounc

ils in

di

ffere

nt c

ount

ries

resi

ze th

eir p

ower

to

com

pens

ate

for t

he d

ysfu

nctio

n-al

ity o

f nat

iona

l gov

ernm

ents

and

gl

obal

mar

kets

.

2035

: In

man

y ci

ties

and

tow

ns lo

cal P

PP

-cou

ncils

hav

e fo

-cu

sed

thei

r effo

rts

on e

stab

lishi

ng a

cces

sibl

e pu

blic

spa

ces

for e

very

nei

ghbo

urho

od a

nd v

illag

e.

“Our

fam

ily lo

ves

the

fact

that

ther

e’s

so m

uch

of s

hare

d sp

ace

in o

ur n

eigh

bour

hood

. Kid

s ca

n pl

ay to

geth

er in

the

Toy

Hou

se a

nd w

e ca

n al

so c

ook

toge

ther

with

our

com

mun

ity.”

2034

: The

big

gest

tech

nolo

gica

l boo

m s

ince

the

ar-

rival

of t

he in

tern

et a

nd m

obile

pho

nes

is c

reat

ed a

s ne

w a

pplic

atio

ns a

re d

evel

oped

at l

ocal

and

glo

bal

leve

l. Th

ese

incl

ude

man

y th

ings

from

neu

ral s

can-

ners

that

hel

p to

det

ect w

hen

you

are

feel

ing

empa

thy

to n

etw

ork

tool

s th

at re

flect

how

oth

er p

eopl

e ar

e fe

elin

g an

dw tr

aini

ng c

ours

es in

rein

forc

ing

the

ben-

efits

of c

ompa

ssio

nate

act

ions

with

in g

roup

s.

At a

ny g

iven

tim

e, I’

m p

art o

f at l

east

five

di

ffer

ent c

o-op

erat

ives

that

are

invo

lved

in

hob

bies

, foo

d an

d el

derly

car

e –

all o

f th

e ne

cess

ities

of l

ife a

re p

rovi

ded

for

by

mak

ing

com

mun

ities

res

ilien

t. Th

e ra

pid

decl

ine

of p

ublic

wel

fare

has

forc

ed p

eo-

ple

to s

tart

look

ing

afte

r th

emse

lves

.

Eve

ry d

ay I

activ

ely

offe

r m

y to

ols

for

othe

r pe

ople

to s

hare

. Th

is m

eans

that

whe

n I h

ave

a va

cuum

cl

eane

r, m

y co

mm

unity

can

us

e it

as w

ell.

At e

lect

ion

time,

I su

ppor

t act

s,

like

a lo

wer

t tax

on

loca

l foo

d,

not a

per

son

or a

par

ty. T

his

lead

s to

a m

ore

part

icip

ator

y po

litic

al s

yste

m, a

s el

ecte

d po

l-iti

cian

s ar

e no

long

er th

e ke

y.

I sha

re a

140

m2 a

part

men

t with

m

y pa

rent

s, m

y fr

iend

Chr

is-

tina

and

her

pare

nts

and

my

mot

her’s

long

-tim

e fr

iend

Jan

. 20

yea

rs a

go th

e sa

me

apar

t-m

ent w

as h

ome

to a

n el

derly

co

uple

. App

aren

tly th

eir

desi

gn

for

usin

g th

e sp

ace

was

n’t a

s cl

ever

as

ours

. My

pare

nts

built

m

e m

y ow

n ro

om la

st m

onth

. It

took

us

one

wee

kend

.

Her

e in

Cro

atia

spo

ntan

eous

ne

ighb

ourh

ood

danc

ing

ses-

sion

s ar

e a

sign

of t

rust

and

he

alth

y co

mm

unity

.

I fre

quen

tly u

se p

ublic

tran

spor

t tha

t is

ac-

cess

ible

on

dem

and

from

the

coun

trys

ide

to th

e ci

ty. S

mal

l bus

es m

ake

it ef

fort

less

to

trav

el w

ithin

vill

ages

. The

re a

re a

lso

lots

of

mod

ular

mic

ro-t

ram

s th

at p

rovi

de e

ffici

ent

mob

ility

.

Unf

ortu

nate

ly w

e ha

d a

serie

s of

con

flict

s be

twee

n di

ffer

ent n

eigh

bour

hood

s he

re in

Mad

rid, o

ver

how

to

shar

e la

nd th

at w

as fr

eed

up

from

car

use

.

Act

ive

farm

ing

clas

ses

edu-

cate

chi

ldre

n to

be

com

e ad

-eq

uate

farm

ers

know

ledg

eabl

e in

sus

tain

able

m

etho

ds. T

his

type

of e

duca

-tio

n em

erge

s in

sc

hool

s al

l ove

r E

urop

e.

Com

mun

ity

cook

ing

spac

e

& d

inin

g ar

ea

Sha

red

kids

’ To

y H

ouse

Page 52: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

52 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

The

syst

em b

reak

s do

wn

The

“We

can”

gen

erat

ion

wor

ks to

geth

er

Pub

lic, p

rivat

e an

d pe

ople

(PP

P) –

the

new

wel

fare

mod

el

Com

mun

itisa

tion

of u

rban

pla

nnin

g

2040

2045

2050

2040

: Pol

itica

l par

ticip

atio

n ta

kes

plac

e at

the

loca

l lev

el a

nd n

ew m

etho

ds o

f dire

ct d

ecis

ion-

mak

ing

are

intr

oduc

ed.

2040

: One

mill

ion

Euro

pean

coo

pera

tives

agr

ee

on o

pen

sour

ce s

tand

ards

for t

heir

tech

nolo

gies

an

d w

ays

of o

rgan

izin

g. T

he s

tand

ards

requ

ire

mut

ual h

elp

from

coo

pera

tives

in te

achi

ng th

e be

st

poss

ible

met

hods

. The

his

tory

of t

he n

ew a

gree

-m

ent g

oes

back

to o

pen

sour

ce e

ntre

pren

eurs

fro

m th

e N

ordi

c co

untr

ies

in th

e ea

rly 2

000.

The

se

entr

epre

neur

s ar

gued

that

eve

rybo

dy w

ould

hav

e so

met

hing

to o

ffer f

or th

e so

ciet

y if

only

they

wer

e pr

ovid

ed w

ith th

e ac

cess

to th

e da

ta.

2041

: Sev

eral

mic

rona

tions

hav

e ad

opte

d ne

w

deci

sion

-mak

ing

proc

esse

s as

sist

ed b

y Te

ch-

nolo

gy o

f Em

path

y to

ols.

The

se to

ols

mak

e it

poss

ible

to e

ngag

e ci

tizen

s at

new

leve

ls,

and

they

hel

p in

cre

atin

g co

nsen

sus

on m

any

far-

reac

hing

issu

es th

at in

the

prev

ious

era

of

part

y po

litic

s be

cam

e lo

cked

in s

tale

mat

e.

2040

: The

Uni

ted

Nat

ions

is p

ract

ical

ly tr

ansf

orm

ed in

to U

nite

d C

ities

, Tow

ns a

nd R

egio

ns a

s th

e si

gnifi

canc

e of

the

natio

n st

ate

dim

inis

hes.

A n

ew G

loba

l Tra

de C

ounc

il is

form

ed th

roug

h w

hich

m

icro

natio

ns m

anag

e tr

ade

and

com

mer

ce.

2040

: The

gen

erat

ion

of p

eopl

e w

ho h

ave

grow

n up

with

in th

e em

path

y pa

radi

gm g

ain

perm

anen

t pos

ition

s in

po

litic

s, c

ompa

nies

and

co

mm

uniti

es.

2040

: ‘S

harin

g th

e vi

llage

’, a

colla

bora

tivel

y cr

eate

d m

anua

l on

plan

ning

loca

l ene

rgy,

fo

od p

rodu

ctio

n an

d sm

art s

harin

g of

nei

gh-

bour

hood

indo

or a

nd o

utdo

or s

pace

s, g

ains

im

men

se p

opul

arity

all

over

Eur

ope.

2037

: One

of t

he m

ost s

ucce

ssfu

l met

hods

of P

PP

has

bee

n th

e fo

rmat

ion

of n

eigh

bour

hood

coo

pera

tives

. The

se s

truc

ture

s w

ere

kick

star

ted

with

the

help

of m

unic

ipal

ities

and

PP

P v

olun

tary

gr

oups

that

wen

t to

advi

se n

eigh

bour

hood

s on

how

to o

rgan

ize

peer

-to-

peer

ser

vice

s, s

tart

thei

r ow

n en

ergy

and

food

pro

duct

ion,

ga

ther

reso

urce

s fo

r inf

rast

ruct

ure

alte

ratio

ns a

nd h

ow to

form

sus

-ta

inab

le m

odel

s fo

r col

labo

ratio

n.

2037

: Fun

ds a

re c

olle

cted

from

indi

vidu

als,

loca

l ent

er-

pris

es a

nd m

unic

ipal

ities

to fo

rm p

laza

s, in

ner c

ourt

-ya

rds,

mee

ting

spac

es a

nd n

eigh

bour

hood

ass

embl

y ha

lls w

here

peo

ple

can

join

thei

r nei

ghbo

urs,

sta

rt p

lan-

ning

for l

ocal

ene

rgy

and

food

pro

duct

ion,

and

lear

n ho

w to

form

tim

eban

ks, p

eer-

to-p

eer s

ervi

ces

and

othe

r typ

es o

f sha

ring

syst

ems.

Reo

rgan

isin

g pu

blic

sp

ace

also

hel

ps re

duce

the

need

for i

ndiv

idua

l spa

ce.

2038

: Sol

utio

ns o

f em

ergi

ng

citie

s, to

wns

and

regi

ons

focu

s on

cre

atin

g a

new

ki

nd o

f loc

al e

cono

my

and

new

type

of s

hare

d po

wer

be

twee

n th

e pu

blic

sec

tor,

com

pani

es a

nd in

divi

dual

s.

2038

: A g

roup

of i

nitia

tors

that

al

loca

te lo

cal r

esou

rces

em

erge

s.Th

ey s

et u

p ex

perim

ents

on

way

s to

take

of c

are

of lo

cal r

esou

rces

th

roug

h ne

w ty

pes

of lo

ng-t

erm

pl

anni

ng o

f e.g

. rar

e m

iner

als.

Form

er c

ounc

il bl

ocks

ope

r-at

e lik

e se

lf-su

ffici

ent v

illag

es.

Par

king

lots

hav

e be

en tu

rned

in

to a

gric

ultu

ral fi

elds

, new

in

fill p

rovi

des

mod

ern,

wel

l-de

sign

ed fl

ats

and

new

type

s of

com

mun

al s

pace

.

I’ve

hear

d th

at th

ey ju

st

star

ted

to s

lash

and

bur

n la

nd

to c

reat

e be

tter

farm

ing

poss

i-bi

litie

s he

re in

Fin

land

. Tha

t’s

an o

ld a

nd lo

cal t

radi

tion,

but

it’

s no

w d

one

by a

pply

ing

new

te

chno

logy

.

I’m p

ursu

ing

an o

ptio

n to

att

end

a pr

ogra

m th

at

allo

ws

me

to m

ove

into

a

bett

er fu

nctio

ning

nei

gh-

bour

hood

. I k

now

I ha

ve

to w

ork

hard

ther

e, b

ut

I rea

lly a

ppre

ciat

e th

at

mor

e pr

estig

ious

com

mu-

nitie

s ar

rang

e th

ese

type

of

PP

P p

ossi

bilit

ies.

As

mos

t of m

y tim

e is

spe

nt

wor

king

and

co

llabo

ratin

g in

ver

y so

cial

se

ttin

gs, I

spe

nd

my

holid

ays

go-

ing

som

ewhe

re

whe

re I

can

be b

y m

ysel

f in

sile

nce

and

refle

ct o

n pa

st e

xper

ienc

es

and

feel

ings

.

Peo

ple

who

are

ill c

an

quar

antin

e th

emse

lves

from

th

eir

wid

er c

omm

unity

in

flu h

oste

ls, t

hus

redu

cing

th

eir

impa

ct o

n co

mm

unity

’s

reso

urce

s.

I use

a n

ew s

ervi

ce th

at

prov

ides

effi

cien

t int

ra-

city

pro

duct

logi

stic

s th

roug

h a

netw

ork

of b

icyc

les

that

del

iver

pro

duct

s w

her-

ever

and

whe

neve

r.

Eac

h ne

ighb

ourh

ood’

s av

erag

e le

vel o

f hap

-pi

ness

is s

omet

hing

I fo

llow

clo

sely

whe

n I’m

lo

okin

g to

cha

nge

apar

t-m

ents

. The

inde

x al

low

s m

e to

spo

t the

hap

pies

t ar

eas

to li

ve in

– I

wan

t to

kno

w a

bout

mor

e th

an

the

mat

eria

l off

erin

gs o

f th

e ar

ea.

Som

e of

my

frie

nds

are

educ

ated

to h

elp

the

elde

rly.

They

’re

the

mos

t res

pect

ed

indi

vidu

als

amon

g m

y fr

iend

s.

Page 53: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 5

3

2045

2

05

0

“I lo

ve th

e fa

ct th

at th

e ol

d st

reet

s ar

e no

w tu

rned

into

urb

an fa

rmin

g pl

ots

whi

le s

till m

aint

aini

ng p

lent

y of

spa

ce

for

wal

king

and

cyc

ling.

2043

: The

new

gen

erat

ion

that

now

dom

inat

es th

e w

ork

life

has

grea

ter e

xper

ienc

e w

orki

ng c

olla

bora

tivel

y th

an

ever

bef

ore.

The

se p

eopl

e un

ders

tand

that

bra

ins

also

ne

ed s

ome

time

off.

2044

: Mos

t of t

he v

illag

es in

Eur

ope

have

tr

aine

d on

e or

two

of th

eir i

nhab

itant

s to

be

thei

r “sh

arin

g ar

chite

cts”

. The

y ta

ke c

are

of

deve

lopi

ng a

vill

age’

s bu

ildin

gs a

nd s

pace

s to

ser

ve th

e ne

eds

of th

e ne

w e

ra.

2045

: The

not

ion

of le

isur

e tim

e ch

ange

s. P

eopl

e se

ek ‘r

eflec

tion

time’

, tim

e w

hen

they

are

free

from

info

rmat

ion

flow

s an

d so

cial

role

s. A

ddre

ssin

g th

is

need

for ‘

refle

ctio

n tim

e’ re

quire

s sp

ecia

l ser

vice

s, b

ecau

se th

e m

ajor

ity o

f pe

ople

live

in s

uch

clos

e ne

ighb

ourh

oods

.

2047

: Peo

ple

spen

d tim

e th

at

wou

ld p

revi

ousl

y ha

ve b

een

calle

d ‘v

acat

ions

’ in

solit

ude

in c

abin

s lo

cate

d in

the

mid

st o

f nat

ure.

Toda

y is

the

final

mat

ch o

f th

e W

orld

Cup

for

Citi

es

whe

re fo

otba

ll cl

ubs

com

-pe

te in

this

mos

t pre

stig

ious

of

tour

nam

ents

, hel

d ev

ery

four

yea

rs.

I wor

k fo

r a

loca

l cou

ncil

coor

dina

ting

a ne

twor

k of

nei

ghbo

urho

od h

ealth

pr

ogra

mm

es. M

y ro

utin

e w

orki

ng

day

is 6

hou

rs lo

ng. I

n ad

ditio

n to

m

y da

y jo

b I s

pend

two

hour

s ev

ery

day

(occ

asio

nally

a li

ttle

bit

mor

e on

w

eeke

nds)

wor

king

with

my

neig

h-bo

urs

on fa

rmin

g an

d di

ffer

ent t

ypes

of

mai

nten

ance

wor

k.

In m

y ne

ighb

ourh

ood,

th

ere’

s a

neig

hbou

r re

sour

c-es

’ man

agem

ent s

yste

m

so th

at e

very

one

can

shar

e ne

cess

ary

task

s an

d ap

pli-

ance

s ef

ficie

ntly

.

Ther

e’s

a m

onth

ly

prev

enta

tive

heal

th

circ

le in

my

com

-m

unity

. We

disc

uss

topi

cs

such

as

nutr

ition

, die

ts a

nd

slee

p cy

cles

. The

se h

ealth

ci

rcle

s ar

e ve

ry p

opul

ar.

Pro

vide

s co

mpl

emen

tary

fo

od re

sour

ces

for h

ouse

s an

d ap

artm

ents

nea

rby

Min

or s

tree

ts

tran

sfor

med

and

di

vide

d in

to lo

cal

neig

hbou

rhoo

d ga

rden

sR

e-ap

prop

riatio

n of

pub

lic s

pace

re

gene

rate

s lo

cal

soci

al li

fe

Form

er s

idew

alks

m

aint

aine

d fo

r lo

cal m

obili

ty

My

gran

dpar

ents

are

stil

l act

ive

mem

bers

of s

ocie

ty a

nd th

eir

effo

rts

in ta

king

car

e of

com

mun

ity w

ell-

bein

g ar

e ve

ry m

uch

valu

ed. T

hey

take

car

e of

chi

ldre

n in

the

stre

et

park

out

side

our

bui

ldin

g.

Page 54: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Mob

ility

(dai

ly a

nd to

uris

m)

11 0

00 k

g

Hou

sing

: bui

ldin

g

2400

kg

Pro

duct

co

nsum

ptio

n 26

00 k

g

Leis

ure

time

15

00 k

g

Food

73

00 k

g

Hou

sing

: el

ectr

icity

33

00 k

g

Oth

ers

900

kg

54 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Loca

l lea

ders

from

bus

ines

s,

polit

ics

and

civi

l soc

iety

…em

erge

as

key

deci

sion

mak

ers

push

ing

for

alte

rnat

ives

aft

er th

e br

eakd

own

of th

e gl

obal

sys

tem

.

Arc

hite

cts

…fo

cus

on d

esig

ning

op-

port

uniti

es fo

r fle

xibl

e ho

usin

g an

d pu

blic

spa

ce.

Nei

ghbo

urho

ods

…st

art c

o-op

s to

sup

port

sel

f rel

i-an

cy in

ene

rgy

and

food

sec

urity

.

Jour

nalis

ts a

nd

med

ia p

rodu

cers

…co

ncep

tual

ise

the

new

not

ion

of h

uman

nat

ure

that

spr

eads

em

path

y an

d hu

man

cen

tris

m.

Gat

ekee

pers

for l

ifest

yle

chan

ges

Urb

an p

lann

ers

…he

lp p

eopl

e an

d co

mm

uni-

ties

in a

dapt

ing

to th

e ne

w re

-gi

me

by c

hang

ing

stre

ets

and

publ

ic s

pace

s to

new

use

s.

Six

-pac

k of

mos

t infl

uent

ial l

ifest

yle

trigg

ers

1.

Ris

ing

ener

gy a

nd fo

od p

rices

com

bine

d w

ith a

long

eco

nom

ic d

ownt

urn

lead

to p

eopl

e be

-co

min

g m

ore

inte

rest

ed in

and

aw

are

of th

e st

ruct

ures

that

und

erpi

n th

eir l

ifest

yle

patt

erns

, as

wel

l as

of a

ltern

ativ

e, c

ost-

effe

ctiv

e so

lutio

ns to

cur

rent

food

, hou

sing

and

mob

ility

pat

tern

s.

2.

Do-

it-yo

urse

lf (D

IY) f

arm

ing,

ene

rgy

prod

uctio

n an

d re

trofi

ttin

g so

lutio

ns g

ain

popu

larit

y am

ong

man

y of

the

unem

ploy

ed. T

he in

tern

et a

nd s

ocia

l net

wor

ks h

elp

spre

ad b

est p

ract

ices

qui

ckly

an

d cr

eate

spa

ce fo

r alte

rnat

ive

econ

omie

s.

3.

New

loca

l par

tner

ship

s em

pow

er p

eopl

e to

sha

pe th

eir n

eigh

bour

hood

s to

bet

ter f

acili

tate

sel

f-su

ffici

ency

in fo

od a

nd e

nerg

y pr

oduc

tion,

and

in d

iffer

ent f

orm

s of

com

mun

al c

onsu

mpt

ion

(sha

red

use

of to

ols,

app

lianc

es a

nd s

pace

s).

4.

Hea

lth c

ease

s to

be

an in

divi

dual

issu

e an

d be

com

es a

com

mun

al o

ne. P

eopl

e pr

actic

e pr

e-ve

ntiv

e he

alth

care

in w

orkp

lace

s an

d in

nei

ghbo

urho

ods

toge

ther

with

thei

r pee

rs.

5.

New

tool

s an

d se

rvic

es fo

r int

erio

r des

igns

mak

e pe

ople

thin

k ab

out t

heir

hom

es in

new

way

s.

The

func

tiona

lity

and

flexi

bilit

y of

hom

es a

re fe

atur

es th

at p

eopl

e in

205

0 ar

e ab

le to

com

pare

an

d im

prov

e as

eas

ily a

s pe

ople

use

d to

com

pare

livi

ng s

pace

in 2

012.

6.

Occ

asio

nal s

hort

ages

cha

nge

attit

udes

and

exp

ecta

tions

. A re

duct

ion

in fo

od, l

ivin

g sp

ace,

co

nsum

er e

xpen

ditu

re, t

rave

l and

oth

er le

isur

e tim

e ac

tiviti

es is

com

pens

ated

for b

y th

e ric

h-ne

ss o

f soc

ial l

ife a

nd a

sen

se o

f pur

pose

in o

ne’s

wor

k an

d co

mm

unal

act

iviti

es.

The

aver

age

mat

eria

l foo

tpri

nt o

f a E

urop

ean

in 2

050

in t

he

Em

phat

hetic

Com

mun

ities

sce

nari

o (8

000

kg p

er p

erso

n in

a y

ear)

co

mpa

red

to t

he a

vera

ge m

ater

ial f

ootp

rint

in 2

007

(29

000

kg).

Mob

ility

(d

aily

and

tour

ism

) 12

00 k

gFo

od

3600

kg

Hou

sing

: bu

ildin

g 13

00 k

g

Oth

ers

300

kg

Hou

sing

: el

ectr

icity

80

0 kg

Pro

duct

co

nsum

ptio

n 50

0 kg

Leis

ure

tim

e 30

0 kg

Page 55: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 5

5

Crit

ical

cha

lleng

es a

nd s

olut

ions

in

the

scen

ario

Em

phat

hetic

Com

mun

ities

Q1.

H

ow t

o av

oid

biod

iver

sity

dec

line

and

soil

fert

ility

loss

cau

sed

by

lo

cal r

esou

rce

over

use

and

com

petit

ion

for

land

allo

catio

n be

twee

n

ener

gy a

nd fo

od p

rodu

ctio

n?

1.

The

impe

rativ

e of

sel

f-su

ffici

ency

mak

es c

omm

uniti

es p

lan

the

villa

ges

arou

nd n

utrit

ion

cycl

es. D

iffer

ent c

omm

uniti

es n

etw

ork

and

exch

ange

so

lutio

ns o

n ho

w to

mak

e nu

triti

on c

ycle

s w

ork.

2.

Red

uced

leve

l of m

obili

ty a

nd in

crea

sed

need

for f

arm

ing

land

resu

lt in

lo

cal i

nitia

tives

to c

onve

rt fo

rmer

traf

fic in

fras

truc

ture

into

gre

en s

pace

s.

This

has

allo

wed

bio

dive

rsity

to c

ome

back

into

vill

ages

and

tow

ns w

hile

al

so fa

cilit

atin

g fo

od p

rodu

ctio

n e.

g. w

ith lo

cal f

ruit

varie

ties

on fo

rmer

in

fras

truc

ture

spa

ce.

3.

Mun

icip

al p

artn

ersh

ips

offe

r ser

vice

s, p

eer h

elp

and

supp

ort i

n m

oney

an

d m

ater

ials

for n

eigh

bour

hood

s to

bui

ld u

p ne

w v

illag

e in

fill,

new

so-

cial

pra

ctic

es a

nd c

omm

unity

spa

ces.

Urb

an s

praw

l dec

reas

es.

4.

Loca

l com

mun

ities

util

ize

loca

l low

-tec

h en

ergy

sol

utio

ns. B

est p

ract

ices

ar

e ex

chan

ged

betw

een

com

mun

ities

in g

loba

l onl

ine

netw

orks

that

en

cour

age

com

mun

ities

to e

xper

imen

t and

inno

vate

. Hig

h pr

ices

and

hi

gh le

vels

of u

nem

ploy

men

t pus

h pe

ople

tow

ards

com

mun

al w

ays

of

livin

g w

hich

ena

ble

low

er le

vels

of e

nerg

y co

nsum

ptio

n an

d sm

alle

r liv

ing

spac

es

Q2.

H

ow t

o av

oid

glob

al r

esou

rce

over

use,

reg

iona

l con

flict

s an

d

in

effic

ient

use

of l

ocal

res

ourc

es?

1.

Occ

asio

nal s

carc

ity o

f cer

tain

food

stuf

fs, p

rodu

cts

and

reso

urce

s fo

ster

lif

esty

les

base

d on

suf

ficie

ncy.

Peo

ple

lear

n to

sha

re s

pace

s an

d go

ods

and

enjo

y co

mm

unal

way

s of

livi

ng. D

iffer

ent t

ypes

of s

wap

ping

sys

tem

s m

ake

peop

le fe

el s

ense

of s

uffic

ienc

y an

d in

crea

se e

ffici

ency

of m

ater

ial

use.

2.

Ope

n so

urce

exc

hang

e sy

stem

s fo

r cer

tain

nat

ural

reso

urce

s an

d m

anu-

fact

ured

pro

duct

s in

crea

se c

oope

ratio

n be

twee

n re

gion

s an

d pr

ovid

e so

me

addi

tiona

l val

ue to

loca

l com

mun

ities

thus

avo

idin

g co

nflic

ts.

Q3.

H

ow t

o av

oid

unhe

alth

y di

ets

and

lifes

tyle

s?

1.

Equa

l acc

ess

to p

reve

ntat

ive

heal

th in

form

atio

n an

d se

rvic

es is

a m

ajor

fie

ld o

f pub

lic s

ecto

r on

the

loca

l lev

el. M

unic

ipal

par

tner

ship

s an

d ne

ighb

ourh

oods

col

labo

rate

in c

reat

ing

serie

s of

inte

rven

tions

aim

ing

at

pro-

heal

th c

ultu

re w

ithin

com

mun

ities

. Life

is b

ased

on

phys

ical

wor

k so

pe

ople

are

in g

ood

shap

e.

2.

Mob

ility

bas

ed o

n w

alki

ng a

nd c

yclin

g an

d a

do-it

-you

rsel

f life

styl

e pr

omot

e go

od h

ealth

.

3.

Sca

rcity

of i

mpo

rted

food

stuf

fs m

ake

peop

le a

dopt

sea

sona

l die

ts th

at

cons

tant

ly u

tiliz

e va

ryin

g so

urce

s of

pro

tein

and

vita

min

s. T

here

fore

pe

ople

’s n

utrit

ion

is m

ostly

suf

ficie

nt a

nd b

alan

ced,

but

not

exc

essi

ve o

r ov

erab

unda

nt a

s in

ear

lier d

ecad

es.

Page 56: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

56 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Sin

gula

r S

uper

Cha

mpi

ons

Gov

erni

ng t

he C

omm

ons

Loca

l Loo

psE

mpa

thet

ic C

omm

uniti

esE

duca

tion

Embe

dded

into

eve

ryda

y lif

e an

d pr

actic

es, l

ifelo

ng in

-st

ead

of s

hort

cyc

les

in th

e be

ginn

ing

of li

fe. I

ndiv

idua

lized

an

d co

mm

odifi

ed. B

asis

of w

elfa

re p

rovi

sion

.

The

mai

n fo

cus

of e

duca

tion

is o

n pe

er-t

o-pe

er s

kill-

shar

ing.

Lea

rnin

g by

doi

ng is

em

phas

ized

in it

erat

ive

way

s.

Pan

dem

ic te

chno

logy

ena

bles

inst

ant f

eedb

ack

loop

s,

whi

ch a

ccel

erat

e sh

arin

g of

kno

wle

dge.

Foc

us o

n in

form

al

educ

atio

n w

here

cla

ssro

oms

do n

ot e

xist

.

Educ

atio

n is

abo

ut tr

ansm

ittin

g an

d sh

ar-

ing

skill

s. C

rafts

man

ship

and

spe

cial

isa-

tion

are

prom

oted

thro

ugh

mut

ual t

each

ing

and

prob

lem

-bas

ed le

arni

ng.

Educ

atio

n an

d le

arni

ng a

re p

robl

em-b

ased

and

co

llabo

ratio

n-dr

iven

.

Wor

kH

uman

reso

urce

s hi

ghlig

ht w

ork.

Tal

ent i

s co

ncen

trat

ed

in g

loba

l org

anis

atio

ns. E

ntre

pren

eur v

s. s

uper

tale

nted

m

ultin

atio

nal c

lass

Peo

ple’

s so

urce

s of

inco

me

have

frag

men

ted.

Com

preh

en-

sive

use

of s

kills

are

val

ued.

Eve

ryon

e ha

s so

met

hing

to

offe

r to

soci

ety.

Key

wor

ds d

escr

ibin

g w

ork

incl

ude

mic

ro-

task

s, c

row

dsou

rcin

g an

d be

ing

usef

ul to

one

’s p

eers

.

Wor

k is

cha

ract

eris

ed b

y en

gage

men

t with

is

sues

and

col

labo

ratio

n w

ithin

and

am

ong

guild

s. N

eeds

met

by

appl

ying

des

ign

thin

king

and

form

ulat

ing

loca

l sol

utio

ns.

Wor

k ha

ppen

s co

llabo

rativ

ely

in h

ubs

and

peop

le le

arn

thro

ugh

aski

ng fo

r inp

ut fr

om c

olle

ague

s. H

ands

-on

wor

k is

hig

hly

valu

ed. W

ork

is n

eigh

bour

hood

-bas

ed a

nd

aim

s at

con

trib

utin

g to

the

com

mun

ity.

City

10-1

5 hi

ghly

urb

anis

ed m

etro

polis

es in

Eur

ope.

Ext

rem

ely

dens

e. L

ots

of n

ew in

fras

truc

ture

. New

spe

cial

ised

are

as

of e

xcel

lenc

e.

Citi

es a

re b

ased

on

alre

ady

exis

ting

infr

astr

uctu

re. O

ffice

an

d sc

hool

bui

ldin

gs h

ave

been

con

vert

ed in

to fl

ats

and

publ

ic s

pace

s. U

rban

exp

erie

nces

are

enr

iche

d by

aug

-m

ente

d re

ality

. Peo

ple

find

pers

onal

ised

sol

utio

ns to

fulfi

l th

eir n

eeds

and

asp

iratio

ns o

n bo

t the

phy

sica

l and

virt

ual

laye

rs.

Citi

es a

re m

ultic

entr

ed a

nd fo

rmed

into

th

eir o

wn

loop

s. G

uild

s w

orki

ng a

nd li

ving

in

the

loop

s la

y th

eir o

wn

stro

ng c

hara

c-te

ristic

s on

thei

r loo

ps.

Villa

ge in

fill f

om s

praw

l to

farm

vill

age.

Par

king

lots

are

tu

rned

into

pla

ces

of fo

od p

rodu

ctio

n. T

he p

ublic

spa

ce

gain

s gr

eat s

igni

fican

ce. V

illag

es w

ithin

citi

es a

re k

ey

elem

ents

of t

he u

rban

fabr

ic.

Hea

lthP

reve

ntat

ive

publ

ic h

ealth

care

. Rat

iona

l die

ts. S

elfd

iag-

nosi

s.P

eer-

to-p

eer n

etw

ork

supp

ort i

s ch

arac

teris

tic o

f bot

h pr

even

tativ

e an

d re

activ

e he

alth

car

e. P

ublic

fund

ing

is

prov

ided

for h

ealth

-car

e co

oper

ativ

es. A

wid

e va

riety

of

heal

thy

lifes

tyle

s ha

ve b

ecom

e ro

utin

ised

. Dig

ital f

eedb

ack

tool

s ar

e us

ed b

y ev

eryo

ne.

Wor

k pl

aces

pro

vide

hea

lth-c

are

and

skill

ed d

octo

rs. T

here

are

bas

ic ri

ghts

that

al

l reg

ions

agr

ee to

prio

ritis

e w

ith re

gard

to

heal

th-c

are.

Par

adig

m o

f qua

lity

over

qua

ntity

cha

ract

eris

es th

e he

alth

-car

e sy

stem

. Thi

s m

eans

that

the

mea

ning

fuln

ess

of a

per

son’

s lif

espa

n is

see

n as

mor

e im

port

ant t

han

the

amou

nt o

f yea

rs li

ved.

Loc

al a

dmin

istr

atio

n pr

iorit

ises

he

alth

-car

e an

d he

alth

y liv

ing.

Eve

ry m

unic

ipal

ity h

as

a ho

spita

l. H

ealth

y-liv

ing-

circ

les

shar

e pr

even

tativ

e kn

owle

dge

loca

lly.

Livi

ngLo

catio

n co

mpe

nsat

es s

ize

of th

e fla

t. N

ew m

ater

ials

and

de

sign

. Pric

e dr

ives

den

sity

.P

eopl

e liv

e in

sm

all fl

ats

and

wor

k in

new

offi

ce lo

fts. T

he

digi

tal l

ayer

is k

ey to

ovi

de p

eopl

e w

ith q

ualit

y in

thei

r liv

es.

Sm

art h

omes

, aus

tere

furn

iture

and

dig

ital s

ervi

ces

char

ac-

teris

e do

mes

ticity

.

Livi

ng in

the

loop

s is

cha

ract

eris

ed b

y sh

ared

spa

ces,

exi

stin

g in

fras

truc

ture

and

co

-wor

king

spa

ces.

Gui

ld m

embe

rs o

ften

live

in th

e sa

me

neig

hbou

rhoo

d.

Farm

ing

oppo

rtun

ities

rais

e pr

oper

ty v

alue

s. P

eopl

e liv

e in

sha

red

apar

tmen

ts a

nd m

ake

use

of s

hare

d sp

aces

.

Food

Pric

e an

d he

alth

effi

cien

t die

t. La

rge

scal

e or

gani

c pr

o-du

ctio

n.Fo

od p

rodu

ctio

n an

d di

strib

utio

n ar

e m

anag

ed b

y gl

obal

fo

od s

yste

ms

and

smar

t foo

d st

orag

e m

echa

nism

s ar

e in

pl

ace.

A m

ultit

ude

of d

iets

are

offe

red

and

ener

gy in

take

is

redu

ced.

Veg

etab

le c

hoic

es a

nd s

ynth

etic

mea

ts fo

rm

diffe

rent

iatio

ns in

die

ts.

Food

pro

duct

ion

and

dist

ribut

ion

are

mar

ked

by lo

calit

y, m

inim

ised

tran

spor

ta-

tion

and

neig

hbou

rhoo

d ca

ntee

ns. E

nerg

y us

ed fo

r foo

d pr

oduc

tion

is o

ptim

ised

.

Gro

win

g fo

od in

urb

an fa

rmin

g ci

rcle

s m

eets

loca

l foo

d de

man

d. F

ood

tran

spor

tatio

n ne

eds

are

very

low

. In

ad-

ditio

n to

pro

duct

ion,

hig

h im

port

ance

is a

lso

plac

ed o

n fo

od q

ualit

y, a

nd d

istr

ibut

ion.

Mob

ility

New

rail

syst

ems

with

in a

nd b

etw

een

met

ropo

lises

. P

erso

naliz

ed ra

pid

tran

spor

t sys

tem

s. S

mar

t mob

ility

so

lutio

ns. H

igh

pric

es.

Mob

ility

is g

reat

ly re

duce

d by

the

use

of d

igita

l too

ls. C

om-

mut

ing

is m

inim

ised

and

the

cons

truc

tion

of n

ew tr

affic

in

fras

truc

tue

has

beco

me

unne

cess

ary.

Sm

art p

ublic

tran

sit

and

car a

nd ri

de s

harin

g ar

e th

e m

ain

form

s of

tran

spor

t.

Tran

spor

tatio

n is

abo

ut w

alka

bilit

y an

d cy

clin

g. E

xist

ing

infr

astr

uctu

re is

opt

i-m

ised

. Int

erci

ty m

obili

ty is

nee

ded

less

an

d se

rvic

es a

re h

ome-

deliv

ered

. Loc

al

tour

ism

and

long

vac

atio

ns a

re fa

vour

ed

by p

eopl

e.

Loca

l mob

ility

is e

mph

asis

ed a

nd le

ss ro

ad s

pace

is

devo

ted

for p

rivat

e ve

hicl

es. O

ld a

nd n

ew in

fras

truc

ture

is

ada

pted

to c

yclin

g.

Con

sum

ing

Mea

ning

s an

d sy

mbo

ls g

et c

onsu

med

mor

e th

an p

rod-

ucts

. Edu

catio

n an

d se

lf-pr

ojec

ted

me.

Pric

e m

echa

nism

.3D

-prin

ting

pers

onal

ises

con

sum

ptio

n. M

ater

ial c

onsu

mp-

tion

is re

duce

d by

usi

ng m

odul

ar a

pplia

nces

, whi

ch e

nabl

e do

-it-y

ours

elf (

DIY

) rep

air a

nd u

pgra

de o

f pro

duct

s. H

igh

degr

ees

of a

pplia

nce

pers

onal

isat

ion,

virt

ual c

onsu

mpt

ion

and

recy

clab

le g

ener

ic m

ater

ials

form

new

des

ign

and

prod

ucer

cul

ture

s, h

elpi

ng to

redu

ce th

e ov

eral

l num

ber o

f ap

plia

nces

.

Con

sum

ptio

n dr

iver

s in

clud

e a

mas

s qu

est

to re

duce

the

over

all v

olum

e of

app

li-an

ces

need

ed th

roug

h sh

arin

g sc

hem

es

and

repl

acem

ent s

ervi

ces.

Pro

duct

s ar

e m

ade

with

hig

h-qu

ality

loca

l mat

eria

ls

and

desi

gn. A

vaila

bilit

y of

fore

ign

good

s is

lim

ited.

All

prod

ucts

are

repa

irabl

e.

Con

sum

ptio

n is

gea

red

tow

ards

mee

ting

peop

le’s

bas

ic

need

s. S

harin

g, s

wap

ping

and

rent

ing

succ

eed

priv

ate

owne

rshi

p.

Mat

rix o

n lif

esty

le d

iffer

ence

s in

the

four

sce

nario

s

Page 57: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 5

7

Eco

nom

yLa

rge

mul

tinat

iona

l firm

s. E

ffici

ency

. Com

petit

ion.

Eco

-in

dust

rial r

evol

utio

n. S

tand

ardi

sed

tran

spar

ent d

ata.

Mic

ro-t

asks

cha

ract

eris

e ec

onom

ic o

rgan

isat

ion.

New

bus

i-ne

sses

are

cre

ated

in a

nd b

y da

ta-r

ich

envi

ronm

ents

. Ope

n so

urce

, ope

n da

ta a

nd fr

ee d

istr

ibut

ion

of in

form

atio

n dr

ive

new

inno

vatio

n. P

erso

nal o

ptim

isat

ion,

DIY

, pee

r ser

vice

s an

d m

anuf

actu

ring

are

driv

ers

of th

e ne

w e

cono

my.

The

econ

omy

is b

ased

aro

und

loca

l use

r-ce

ntric

ada

ptat

ions

and

effi

cien

t loc

al

clus

terin

g.

The

econ

omy

is o

rgan

ized

aro

und

the

self-

suffi

cien

cy o

f sm

all u

nits

. Foo

d po

duct

ion

is p

riorit

ised

. Exp

erim

enta

-tio

n ha

ppen

s on

the

loca

l lev

el a

nd h

igh

valu

e is

giv

en to

co

mm

unity

act

iviti

es.

Sen

se o

f se

curi

tyFr

om te

chno

logi

cal p

rogr

ess.

Tra

nspa

renc

y. S

urve

illan

ce.

Indi

vidu

al c

hoic

es. T

houg

ht le

ader

s.S

ense

of s

ecur

ity is

hei

ghte

ned

by m

embe

rshi

p in

pee

r-to

-pe

er c

omm

uniti

es. D

emoc

ratis

ed d

ata

empo

wer

s pe

ople

. Ea

sy a

cces

s to

ser

vice

s, p

rodu

cts

and

glob

al k

now

ledg

e-ba

ses

prom

otes

equ

ality

. Per

sona

lised

app

lianc

es a

nd

dire

ct p

artic

ipat

ion

incr

ease

a s

ense

of b

elon

ging

and

se

curit

y.

Sen

se o

f sec

urity

is g

ener

ated

thro

ugh

guild

s an

d un

ders

tand

ing

of h

ow th

e sy

s-te

m, i

.e. t

he c

lose

d cy

cles

, wor

k. P

eopl

e id

entif

y th

emse

lves

prim

arily

as

part

of

thei

r wor

k co

mm

uniti

es.

Sen

se o

f sec

urity

is g

ener

ated

by

com

mun

ities

, clo

sed

circ

les,

coo

pera

tives

as

wel

l as

by h

ealth

and

food

ci

rcle

s. P

PP

-sys

tem

s gu

aran

tee

part

icip

atio

n an

d se

nse

of o

wne

rshi

p in

pub

lic a

nd s

ocia

l affa

irs.

Leis

ure

time

Inve

stin

g in

ow

n ed

ucat

ion

and

trai

ning

.Le

isur

e tim

e is

form

ed a

roun

d a

mul

titud

e of

dig

ital i

nter

ac-

tions

. Hom

e co

nsum

ptio

n, h

igh

qual

ity h

ouse

hold

cap

abili

-tie

s an

d di

gita

l cro

wd

expe

rienc

es a

re th

e m

ain

way

s of

sp

endi

ng fr

ee ti

me.

Peo

ple

have

out

sour

ced

thei

r hou

sew

ork

in o

rder

to b

e ab

le to

max

imis

e th

eir i

nput

s in

wor

k co

mm

uniti

es. L

eisu

re ti

me

is

mos

tly s

pent

with

gui

ld m

embe

rs.

Leis

ure

time

is m

ostly

pub

lic a

nd u

sed

for s

ocia

l act

ivi-

ties,

e.g

. in

gard

enin

g ci

rcle

s. V

acat

ions

pro

vide

tim

e fo

r se

lf-re

flect

ion.

Sin

gula

r S

uper

Cha

mpi

ons

Gov

erni

ng t

he C

omm

ons

Loca

l Loo

psE

mpa

thet

ic C

omm

uniti

es

Page 58: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

58 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

How

did

the

SPR

EAD

sce

nario

s re

ach

lifes

tyle

s

of 8

000

kg m

ater

ial f

ootp

rint?

Mat

eria

l Foo

tpri

nt

(kg/

pers

on/y

ear)

Sin

gula

r S

uper

C

ham

pion

s

Cen

tral

ass

umpt

ions

on

tech

nolo

gyC

entr

al a

ssum

ptio

ns o

n lif

esty

leG

over

ning

th

e C

om-

mon

s

Cen

tral

ass

ump-

tions

on

tech

nol-

ogy

Cen

tral

ass

ump-

tions

on

lifes

tyle

Food

2500

Hi-t

ech

orga

nic.

Pric

e m

echa

nism

, sus

tain

-ab

le e

lite,

low

to n

o m

eat,

effic

ient

die

ts (e

cono

my-

ecol

ogy-

heal

th).

2500

Hig

h-yi

eld

plan

ts,

synt

hetic

mea

t, le

ss

was

te.

Sm

alle

r ene

rgy

in-

take

, no

appe

tite

for

mea

t, he

alth

y di

ets.

Hou

sing

: bui

ldin

g13

00G

loba

l zer

o en

ergy

tech

nol-

ogy

(no

heat

ing

or c

oolin

g),

long

evity

of b

uild

ings

, but

m

ostly

new

ly b

uilt,

flex

ibili

ty

of fl

ats,

upc

yclin

g of

con

-st

ruct

ion

mat

eria

ls.

Sm

all,

smar

t flat

s, fl

exib

le

spac

e us

e, d

ense

livi

ng.

1400

Sm

art h

omes

, ret

rofit

-tin

g fu

nctio

nal,

spac

e-ef

ficie

nt fl

ats.

Few

new

bui

ldin

gs,

effic

ient

spa

ce u

se,

mai

nly

from

woo

d,

virt

ual s

ervi

ces

re-

duce

nee

d fo

r spa

ce

at h

ome,

hom

e re

plac

es o

ffice

.

Hou

sing

: ele

tric

ity30

0Th

e en

ergy

dem

and

of

hous

ing

and

ICT

has

de-

crea

sed,

than

ks to

effi

cien

t te

chno

logi

cal s

olut

ions

. H

ighl

y re

sour

ce-e

ffici

ent a

nd

carb

on-n

eutr

al w

ind,

as

wel

l as

sol

ar p

ower

.

Ener

gy d

eman

d ha

s de

-cr

ease

d in

hou

sing

and

ICT,

bu

t not

sub

stan

tially

, as

ICT

is e

very

whe

re.

300

Red

uced

ene

rgy

cons

umpt

ion

but

ubiq

uito

us IC

T, b

ased

on

ele

ctric

ity a

nd

supe

r grid

, div

erse

re

new

able

reso

urce

s,

dist

ribut

ed p

rodu

ctio

n,

foss

il fu

els

phas

ed

out,

lots

of p

laye

rs in

en

ergy

mar

ket.

Ubi

quou

s IC

T,

hom

es re

plac

e of

fic-

es a

nd m

eetin

g lo

ca-

tions

, lim

ited

amou

nt

of 3

D-p

rodu

cts.

Mob

ility

(d

aily

and

tou

rism

)28

000.

2-0.

4 kg

/km

. Den

se lo

cal

serv

ice

netw

ork

as a

resu

lt of

eco

nom

ic e

ffici

ency

and

su

per-

effic

ient

logi

stic

s sy

stem

s, s

hift

in u

rban

in

fras

truc

ture

from

car

traf

fic

to s

mar

t mob

ility

bas

ed o

n ef

ficie

nt P

erso

nal R

apid

Tr

ansp

orta

tion

syst

ems,

ex-

pens

ive

high

-vol

ume

fast

rail

netw

ork

betw

een

aggl

om-

erat

ions

(new

but

effi

cien

tly

used

infr

astr

uctu

re).

5000

-150

00 k

m/y

r. P

eopl

e liv

e ne

ar a

nd m

ove

afte

r w

ork

in(to

) ext

rem

ely

dens

e ar

eas

of e

xcel

lenc

e, h

ealth

y m

obili

ty p

atte

rns

maj

or p

art

of d

aily

exe

rcis

e, tr

ansp

aren

t pr

icin

g bo

oste

d aw

are-

ness

and

pha

sed

out c

ar

use

in u

rban

are

as, p

rices

re

duce

trav

elin

g in

gen

eral

, bu

t man

y pe

ople

stil

l tra

vel

occa

sion

ally

, onl

y fu

ll pl

anes

an

d ot

her v

ehic

les.

2700

0.3

kg/k

m. S

mar

t and

in

divi

dual

ly c

usto

m-

ised

pub

lic tr

ansp

ort,

car-

shar

ing,

slo

w a

ir tr

avel

(e.g

. sol

ar z

ep-

pelin

s). M

aint

enan

ce

of e

xist

ing

basi

c in

fras

truc

ture

.

9000

km

/yr.

Car

-sh

arin

g, m

inim

al

com

mut

ing

(e.g

. no

mor

e of

fices

), pe

r-so

nal o

ptim

isat

ion,

di

rect

beh

avio

ral

feed

back

,virt

ual c

on-

sum

ptio

n re

duce

s tr

avel

nee

ds.

Pro

duct

co

nsum

ptio

n50

0Ex

trem

ely

effic

ient

ICT

solu

-tio

ns (s

enso

rs, c

entr

aliz

ed

com

putin

g, c

loud

farm

s),

use

of a

bund

ant i

nste

ad

of s

carc

e m

ater

ials

for I

CT,

co

mbi

natio

n of

long

evity

and

so

phis

ticat

ed re

cycl

ing.

Low

to n

o-m

ater

ial e

lite:

de

mat

eria

lisat

ion

is c

ool.

Peo

ple

inve

st in

them

selv

es.

500

Mod

ular

app

lianc

es.

Cen

tral

ized

clo

ud

farm

s, o

ptim

al lo

ca-

tion.

3D

com

pone

nt

prin

ting.

Rec

ycle

d m

ater

ials

.

Less

ICT

appl

ianc

es.

Virt

ual c

onsu

mp-

tion

redu

ces

over

all

reso

urce

use

. Sm

all

amou

nt o

f tai

lore

d pe

rson

al g

oods

. 3D

sh

oppi

ng c

ultu

re.

Leis

ure

time

300

Impr

oved

reso

urce

effi

cien

cy

of IC

T.Ed

ucat

iona

l ser

vice

s.40

0Im

prov

ed re

sour

ce

effic

ienc

y of

ICT.

Virt

ual e

nter

tain

men

t.

Oth

ers

300

200

Sum

8000

8000

In th

e S

PR

EA

D S

usta

inab

le L

ifest

yles

205

0 pr

ojec

t we

have

defi

ned

the

mat

eria

l foo

tprin

t of

a su

stai

nabl

e lif

esty

le a

t 800

0kg

for

one

pers

on

per

year

. Thi

s fo

rms

the

fund

amen

tal a

ssum

p-tio

n on

whi

ch e

ach

of o

ur fo

ur d

evel

oped

and

pr

evio

usly

des

crib

ed s

cena

rios

are

built

.

The

mat

eria

l foo

tprin

t of 8

000

kg c

onsi

sts

of

hous

ehol

d go

ods,

food

and

bev

erag

es, e

very

-da

y m

obili

ty a

nd to

uris

m, e

lect

ricity

, hea

ting

and

hous

ing.

How

ever

, the

com

posi

tion

of th

e fo

ot-

prin

t is

not t

he s

ame

for e

very

one.

The

sha

re o

f ea

ch c

onsu

mpt

ion

dom

ain

in th

e an

nual

mat

eria

l fo

otpr

int o

f 800

0 kg

dep

ends

on

the

chan

ges

the

driv

ers

have

bro

ught

abo

ut.

All

four

sce

nario

s, h

owev

er, s

hare

the

follo

win

g as

sum

ptio

ns a

bout

tech

nolo

gy a

nd li

fest

yle

pa

tter

ns:

virt

ually

zer

o-em

issi

on e

lect

ricity

pro

duct

ion

radi

cal r

educ

tion

of e

nerg

y re

quire

d fo

r hea

t-in

g an

d co

olin

g of

bui

ldin

gs, b

oth

in n

ew a

nd

exis

ting

ones

decr

ease

d ne

ed fo

r mob

ility

and

radi

cally

re

duce

d le

vels

of p

rivat

e ca

r use

redu

ced

cons

umpt

ion

of m

eat

The

follo

win

g ta

ble

prov

ides

an

expl

anat

ion

on

how

eac

h sc

enar

io d

iffer

s in

term

s of

reac

hing

th

e 80

00 k

g ta

rget

in th

e di

ffere

nt li

fest

yle

do-

mai

ns.

Page 59: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 5

9

How

did

the

SPR

EAD

sce

nario

s re

ach

lifes

tyle

s

of 8

000

kg m

ater

ial f

ootp

rint?

Mat

eria

l Foo

tpri

nt

(kg/

pers

on/y

ear)

Loca

l Lo

ops

Cen

tral

ass

ump-

tions

on

tech

nolo

gyC

entr

al a

ssum

p-tio

ns o

n lif

esty

leE

mpa

-th

etic

C

om-

mun

i-tie

s

Cen

tral

as-

sum

ptio

ns o

n te

chno

logy

Cen

tral

ass

ump-

tions

on

lifes

tyle

Ave

rage

Eur

o-pe

an in

200

8 (L

ähte

enoj

a, S

., Le

tten

mei

er, M

., S

alo,

M. (

2008

))

Ref

eren

ce

goal

: Sus

tain

-ab

le M

ater

ial

Foot

prin

t 20

50

(Let

tenm

eier

, M.

(201

2))

Cen

tral

ass

ump-

tions

on

tech

nol-

ogy

Cen

tral

as-

sum

ptio

ns o

n lif

esty

le

Food

3300

Effic

ient

pro

duct

ion

and

plan

ts, l

ess

tran

spor

ta-

tion

Opt

imal

food

inta

ke,

use

of fo

od s

ervi

ces,

no

lefto

vers

3600

Loca

l nut

ritio

n cy

cle,

ver

y lo

w

tran

spor

t.

Suf

ficie

nt a

nd h

ealth

y lif

esty

le, o

ccas

iona

l sc

arci

ty, s

elf-

suffi

-ci

ency

.

7300

3000

Low

er re

sour

ce

inte

nsity

(9=>

5-6k

g/kg

), e.

g. le

ss w

aste

.

Low

mea

t and

da

iry(9

=>5-

6kg/

kg),

low

inta

ke

(500

-600

kg),

less

w

aste

.

Hou

sing

: bui

ldin

g13

00M

odul

ar in

fills

hel

p in

us

ing

exis

ting

infr

astr

uc-

ture

. Woo

den

cons

truc

-tio

n in

crea

ses.

Less

app

lianc

es, l

ess

room

s, le

ss li

ving

sp

ace,

mor

e sh

ared

sp

aces

out

side

the

hom

e.

1300

Res

ourc

e-sa

ving

ho

usin

g de

sign

, di

vers

e re

trofi

ttin

g of

exi

stin

g bu

ildin

gs,

long

evity

of b

uild

-in

gs, i

nfill

on y

ards

m

akes

hou

sing

de

nser

and

allo

ws

mor

e co

mm

unity

-ba

sed

livin

g.

Cle

ver h

ousi

ng d

esig

n al

low

s liv

ing

in le

ss

spac

e, d

ense

livi

ng,

new

soc

ial p

ract

ices

, co

mm

unity

spa

ce.

2400

1300

Zero

ene

rgy

and

low

re

sour

ce in

tens

ity

(long

evity

, new

ma-

teria

ls) =

>65k

g/m

2 (a

bout

201

2 in

bui

ld-

ing

reso

urce

inte

n-si

ty b

ut in

205

0 as

a

zero

ene

rgy

build

ing

incl

. ene

rgy)

.

20m

2/pe

rson

, no

built

yar

ds.

Hou

sing

: ele

tric

ity40

0B

reak

thro

ugh

in s

olar

pa

nel t

echn

olog

y, lo

cal

ener

gy s

ourc

es, n

o or

fe

w e

nerg

y ex

port

s,

diffe

rent

CO

2 an

d re

sour

ce in

tens

ities

, ef

ficie

nt n

eigh

bour

hood

-le

vel C

PH

pro

duct

ion

for

hom

e an

d w

ork.

Less

app

lianc

es, l

ess

room

s, le

ss li

ving

sp

ace.

800

Loca

l low

-tec

h so

lutio

ns, d

istr

ib-

uted

pro

duct

ion,

lo

w-t

ech

solu

tions

us

ing

win

d, s

olar

an

d re

sidu

es o

f bi

omas

s.

Sig

nific

ant v

olun

tary

re

duct

ion

in c

onsu

mp-

tion

leve

ls, l

ess

appl

i-an

ces.

3300

300

1000

kW

h 0.

3 kg

/kW

h, w

ind

and

sola

r, ef

ficie

nt a

pplia

nces

Less

app

lianc

es

thro

ugh

smal

ler

room

spa

ce.

Mob

ility

(d

aily

and

tou

rism

)15

000,

25 k

g/km

. Cyc

ling

rout

es, r

educ

ed tr

avel

-lin

g m

eans

that

old

ra

ilroa

d an

d sh

ip s

tock

an

d in

fras

truc

ture

are

st

ill s

uffic

ient

and

in u

se.

6000

km

/yr.

No

need

to

go fa

r, re

gion

al h

olid

ay,

high

recr

eatio

nal v

alue

of

loca

l bio

dive

rsity

re-

serv

es. H

ome

deliv

ery

of e

very

thin

g. W

ork

and

hom

e in

the

sam

e pl

ace.

Jou

rney

man

, tr

avel

onc

e in

you

r lif

etim

e.

1200

0.3

kg/k

m. L

ess

road

spa

ce, s

tree

ts

conv

erte

d to

food

pr

oduc

tion

lane

s.

4000

km

/yr.

Min

imal

m

obili

ty a

nd tr

avel

ing,

w

alki

ng, c

yclin

g. V

il-la

ge in

fill,

from

spr

awl

to fa

rm v

illag

e.

1100

020

000.

2kg/

km (1

,5-2

m

ore

effic

ient

than

pr

esen

t bik

e, b

us,

loca

l rai

l, bo

at,

fligh

t).

10,0

00 k

m/y

r, no

ca

r use

.

Pro

duct

co

nsum

ptio

n40

0Lo

cal m

aint

enan

ce,

reus

e an

d re

cycl

ing

serv

ices

. Lon

gevi

ty a

nd

user

-cen

tric

tailo

ring

of

prod

ucts

. Lig

ht IC

T.

Ser

vice

s re

plac

e ow

n-in

g. L

ess

good

s at

ho

me.

500

Occ

asio

nal a

vail-

abili

ty o

f im

port

ed

good

s. D

o it

your

-se

lf. R

egio

nal m

anu-

fact

urin

g.

A s

mal

ler n

umbe

r of

prod

uct (

grou

p)s

in

use.

Col

lect

ive

hous

e-ho

ld a

ctiv

ities

, sha

red

owne

rshi

p.

2600

500

12 p

rodu

ct g

roup

s 42

kg/

a, in

drea

sing

lo

ngev

ity, d

ecre

asin

g m

ater

ial i

nten

sity

.

Dec

reas

ing

own-

ersh

ip, i

ncre

asin

g sh

arin

g op

tions

, re

use,

sec

ond

hand

.

Leis

ure

time

400

Den

se u

rban

str

uctu

re.

Ser

vice

s w

idel

y us

ed.

300

Col

lect

ive

leis

ure

time

activ

ities

.15

0040

0

Oth

ers

700

300

900

500

Sum

8000

8000

2900

080

00

Page 60: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

60 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Ann

ex A

:

SPR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

-st

yles

205

0 D

elph

i sur

vey

Que

stio

nnai

res

1st r

ound

of t

he D

elph

i suv

eyA

) ME

GAT

RE

ND

SH

ow re

leva

nt is

the

meg

atre

nd?

Wha

t kin

d of

impa

ct d

o yo

u se

e th

is tr

end

has

on s

usta

inab

le

lifes

tyle

s in

Eur

ope?

1.

Glo

bal p

opul

atio

n gr

owth

2.

Urb

anis

atio

n3.

C

limat

e ch

ange

4.

Incr

easi

ng re

sour

ce c

onst

rain

ts5.

T

echn

olog

ical

inno

vatio

n6.

A

ging

pop

ulat

ion

7.

Incr

ease

of m

enta

l and

phy

sica

l illn

ess

in E

urop

e8.

R

isin

g re

sour

ce a

nd e

nerg

y co

nsum

ptio

n le

vels

9.

‘B

eyon

d G

PD

/eco

nom

ic g

row

th’ t

hink

ing

B) B

EH

AV

IOR

CH

AN

GE

Ple

ase

asse

ss th

e pr

obab

ility

, im

port

ance

and

des

irabi

lity

of th

e fo

llow

ing

stat

emen

ts a

nd o

ffer a

rgum

ents

sup

port

ing

your

vie

ws.

10. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 on

e th

ird o

f ove

r 65-

year

-old

s liv

es in

a

co-o

pera

tive

com

mun

ity.

Sen

ior c

itize

ns fo

rm c

omm

uniti

es w

hich

com

bine

co-

hous

ing,

se

rvic

e pr

oduc

tion

and

co-o

pera

tive

busi

ness

. The

se c

omm

uni-

ties

have

gat

here

d se

nior

peo

ple

to in

habi

t tow

ns a

nd v

illag

es

whi

le re

duci

ng li

ving

in s

ingl

e-fa

mily

hou

ses.

Co-

oper

ativ

e bu

si-

ness

es a

re a

rele

vant

sou

rce

of in

com

e fo

r agi

ng p

eopl

e an

d ha

r-ne

ss th

e va

st s

kills

of e

xper

ienc

ed p

eopl

e w

hile

allo

win

g w

orki

ng

at a

pac

e su

itabl

e fo

r ind

ivid

ual c

apac

ities

.

11. Q

UES

TIO

N: W

hat a

re th

e av

erag

e pr

opor

tions

of i

ncom

e sp

ent t

o ho

usin

g, tr

ansp

ort a

nd fo

od in

205

0?to

hou

sing

, ele

ctric

ity a

nd g

as in

205

0to

tran

spor

tatio

n in

205

0to

food

and

non

-alc

ohol

ic b

ever

ages

in 2

050

12. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 th

e pr

opor

tion

of p

eopl

e in

Eur

ope

who

re

cogn

ise

need

s an

d m

otiv

es o

utsi

de th

eir i

mm

edia

te s

elf h

as

risen

from

app

roxi

mat

ely

25 %

in 2

010

to 5

5 %

.

Acc

ordi

ng to

the

valu

e su

rvey

s, p

eopl

e w

ho ta

ke e

nviro

nmen

t in

to a

ccou

nt in

thei

r eve

ryda

y ch

oice

s, r

epre

sent

ver

y of

ten

“uni

vers

alis

t” v

alue

pos

ition

s. (S

ee fo

r exa

mpl

e Th

eory

of b

asic

hu

man

val

ues

by p

rof.

Sho

lom

Sch

war

tz)

13. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 Eu

rope

ans

eat a

mea

l con

tain

ing

mea

t on

ave

rage

twic

e a

wee

k. 14

. STA

TEM

ENT:

In 2

050

num

ber o

f goo

ds o

wne

d by

an

aver

age

Euro

pean

is a

roun

d 1

000.

C) C

ITIE

S A

ND

EN

AB

LIN

G IN

FRA

STR

UC

TUR

ES

P

leas

e as

sess

the

prob

abili

ty, i

mpo

rtan

ce a

nd d

esira

bilit

y of

the

follo

win

g st

atem

ents

and

offe

r arg

umen

ts s

uppo

rtin

g yo

ur v

iew

s.

15. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 90

% o

f Eur

opea

ns li

ve in

a p

lace

whe

re

they

can

reac

h w

ork,

dai

ly s

ervi

ces,

div

erse

leis

ure

activ

ities

and

gr

een

spac

es b

y w

alki

ng in

10

min

utes

.

16. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 th

e av

erag

e ho

usin

g sp

ace

per p

erso

n in

Eur

ope

has

decr

ease

d fro

m th

e le

vel o

f 201

1 by

a th

ird.

17. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 m

ajor

ity o

f big

citi

es in

Eur

ope

are

self-

suffi

cien

t in

term

s of

ene

rgy

from

loca

l ren

ewab

le s

ourc

es.

18. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 m

any

of th

e su

burb

s bu

ilt in

the

latt

er

half

of th

e 20

th c

entu

ry in

Eur

opea

n ci

ties

have

turn

ed to

be

the

mos

t sou

ght-

afte

r and

ene

rgy

effic

ient

nei

ghbo

urho

ods.

D) P

OLI

TIC

S A

ND

PU

BLI

C L

IFE

Ple

ase

asse

ss th

e pr

obab

ility

, im

port

ance

and

des

irabi

lity

of th

e fo

llow

ing

stat

emen

ts a

nd o

ffer a

rgum

ents

sup

port

ing

your

vie

ws.

19. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 su

ppor

ting

peop

le li

ving

in a

reas

con

-st

antly

suf

ferin

g fro

m c

limat

e ch

ange

-rel

ated

ext

rem

e w

eath

er

cond

ition

s (e

xten

ded

heat

wav

es, s

torm

s, fl

oodi

ngs)

is o

ne o

f the

pr

iorit

ies

in th

e Eu

rope

an s

ocia

l pol

icy.

This

kin

d of

vul

nera

bilit

y ha

s em

erge

d as

one

of t

he b

igge

st

sour

ces

of in

equa

lity.

Pol

icy

mea

sure

s he

lp p

eopl

e to

mov

e to

le

ss v

ulne

rabl

e ar

eas,

to re

furb

ish

hom

es to

sus

tain

ext

rem

e w

eath

er c

ondi

tions

and

to p

rote

ct th

emse

lves

from

new

ly s

prea

d di

seas

es.

20. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 in

habi

tant

s of

Eur

opea

n ci

ties

spen

d an

nual

ly s

ever

al d

ays

cont

ribut

ing

to u

rban

pla

nnin

g pr

oces

ses

shap

ing

thei

r ow

n ne

ighb

ourh

ood.

21. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 gl

obal

com

pact

s de

finin

g pe

rson

al q

uo-

tas

for G

HG

em

issi

ons

and

natu

ral r

esou

rce

usag

e ar

e in

pla

ce

and

have

a g

reat

impa

ct o

n co

nsum

ptio

n pa

tter

ns a

nd p

ublic

in

vest

men

ts.

22. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 ro

ad to

ll is

col

lect

ed fr

om a

ll ro

ad tr

affic

in

EU

cou

ntrie

s, b

oth

with

in a

nd o

utsi

de c

ities

.

23. S

TATE

MEN

T: D

evel

opin

g su

stai

nabl

e en

ergy

, tra

nspo

rt, c

om-

mun

icat

ion

and

urba

n in

fras

truc

ture

has

requ

ired

long

-ter

m p

ub-

lic in

vest

men

ts 2

012-

2050

that

are

man

yfol

ded

com

pare

d to

e.g

. Th

e st

imul

us p

acka

ges

laun

ched

by

man

y na

tions

in 2

009-

2010

.

24. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 G

DP

has

bee

n re

plac

ed b

y ot

her i

ndi-

cato

rs m

easu

ring

such

phe

nom

ena

as h

appi

ness

, env

ironm

enta

l st

ress

and

soc

ial e

quity

.

E) B

US

INES

S S

UP

PO

RTI

NG

SU

STA

INA

BLE

LIF

ESTY

LES

P

leas

e as

sess

the

prob

abili

ty, i

mpo

rtan

ce a

nd d

esira

bilit

y of

the

follo

win

g st

atem

ents

and

offe

r arg

umen

ts s

uppo

rtin

g yo

ur v

iew

s.

25. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 th

e fo

od a

nd re

tail

indu

stry

sup

port

s cu

stom

ers

in m

akin

g he

alth

y an

d su

stai

nabl

e ch

oice

s an

d ha

s ag

reed

on

self-

regu

latio

n th

at li

mits

mar

ketin

g an

d pr

icin

g of

ite

ms

such

as

cand

ies,

pot

ato

snac

ks a

nd s

oft d

rinks

.

26. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 th

e m

ajor

ity o

f Eur

opea

n bu

sine

sses

se

lling

con

sum

er g

oods

(clo

thin

g, h

ome

appl

ianc

es) g

ain

sign

ifi-

cant

pro

port

ion

of th

eir r

even

ue fr

om m

aint

enan

ce, r

epai

r, re

-use

, al

tera

tions

and

upg

radi

ng.

27. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 90

% o

f car

s in

Eur

ope

are

owne

d by

m

obili

ty s

ervi

ce c

ompa

nies

or c

o-op

erat

ives

.

28. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 a

typi

cal v

isito

r of h

ealth

car

e se

rvic

es

(bot

h pu

blic

and

priv

ate)

is n

ot il

l but

look

ing

for p

reve

ntiv

e se

rvic

es.

2nd

Rou

nd o

f the

Del

phi s

urve

y

A) C

ON

SU

MP

TIO

N P

ATTE

RN

SP

leas

e as

sess

the

prob

abili

ty, i

mpo

rtan

ce a

nd d

esira

bilit

y of

the

follo

win

g st

atem

ents

and

offe

r arg

umen

ts s

uppo

rtin

g yo

ur v

iew

s.

1. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 3D

prin

ting

has

expa

nded

eno

rmou

sly

self-

expr

essi

onis

t cap

acity

of p

eopl

e co

mpa

red

to c

urre

nt m

ass

cons

umpt

ion.

2. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 pe

ople

buy

mos

t of t

he g

oods

and

se

rvic

es n

eede

d in

dai

ly li

fe fr

om th

eir p

eers

with

in th

e sa

me

reco

gnis

ed g

roup

.

3. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 pe

ople

use

ove

r 25%

of t

heir

time

awak

e co

llabo

ratin

g w

ith th

eir n

eigh

bour

s an

d pe

ers

in o

rder

to p

rovi

de

food

and

oth

er b

asic

goo

ds n

eede

d.

4. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 m

ajor

ity o

f too

ls a

nd s

ervi

ces

that

are

to

day

unde

rsto

od a

s pr

ivat

ely

owne

d pr

oper

ty a

re in

sha

red

use

with

in th

e co

mm

unity

.

5. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 m

ost o

f the

peo

ple

build

thei

r per

sona

l st

atus

thro

ugh

cons

umpt

ion

choi

ces

and

ther

efor

e sa

crifi

ce lo

ts

of p

erso

nal r

esou

rces

in o

rder

to m

ake

qual

ified

dec

isio

ns.

6. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 in

divi

dual

s co

nsum

ptio

n ch

oice

s ar

e ba

sed

on re

sour

ce b

udge

t car

ds. T

hese

car

ds a

re s

hopp

ing

lists

th

at y

ou u

se to

pla

n an

d al

loca

te y

our p

erso

nal n

atur

al re

sour

ce

budg

et.

Page 61: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 6

1

7. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 m

ost o

f the

thin

gs th

at w

ould

’ve

been

bo

ught

as

prod

ucts

in 2

012

are

boug

ht a

s se

rvic

es.

Toda

y co

nsum

ptio

n ch

oice

s ca

use

stre

ss to

man

y pe

ople

be-

caus

e of

info

rmat

ion

over

flow

and

com

plex

ity o

f alte

rnat

ives

.

8. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 co

nsum

er c

ultu

res

are

extr

emel

y lo

cal

and

thus

diff

eren

t pen

ding

whe

re y

ou a

re in

the

wor

ld.

B) E

CO

NO

MIC

STR

UC

TUR

ES

Ple

ase

asse

ss th

e pr

obab

ility

, im

port

ance

and

des

irabi

lity

of th

e fo

llow

ing

stat

emen

ts a

nd o

ffer a

rgum

ents

sup

port

ing

your

vie

ws.

1. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 m

ajor

ity o

f peo

ple

have

mul

tiple

ski

lls

they

use

as

a so

urce

of i

ncom

e an

d th

ey tr

ade

serv

ices

bas

ed o

n th

eir s

kills

with

thei

r pee

rs.

2. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 th

ere

two

leve

ls o

f tra

nsac

tion

syst

ems:

gl

obal

one

ope

ratin

g w

ith g

loba

l cur

renc

y an

d m

any

loca

l one

s th

at a

re n

on-m

onet

ery

by n

atur

e. M

ajor

ity o

f peo

ple

take

par

t in

bot

h of

thes

e sy

stem

s bu

t it i

s po

ssib

le to

live

onl

y as

par

t of

loca

l eco

nom

y.

3. S

TATE

MEN

T : I

n 20

50 g

loba

l res

ourc

e sc

arci

ty a

nd in

stab

ility

of

fina

ncia

l sys

tem

s ha

ve fo

rced

gov

ernm

ents

to fo

rfei

t eco

nom

ic

grow

th a

s an

indi

cato

r of d

evel

opm

ent f

or th

e so

ciet

y.In

the

first

roun

d of

SP

REA

D 2

050

Del

phi s

urve

y 92

% o

f the

re

spon

dent

s ev

alua

ted

the

desi

rabi

lity

of a

situ

atio

n w

here

by

2050

GD

P h

as b

een

repl

aced

by

othe

r ind

icat

ors

with

num

bers

5

or 6

(in

a sc

ale

of 1

-6).

4. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 te

chno

logy

has

dev

elop

ed in

a w

ay

that

bas

ic n

eces

sitie

s fo

r eve

ryon

e ar

e pr

ovid

ed th

roug

h lo

cal

prod

uctio

n w

ithou

t im

port

s.

5. S

TATE

MEN

T: B

y 20

50 m

any

trad

ition

al a

nd re

sour

ce in

ten-

sive

, but

tech

nolo

gica

lly a

nd e

colo

gica

lly o

utda

ted

prod

uctio

n pr

oces

ses

have

dis

appe

ared

thro

ugh

cutt

ing

subs

idie

s an

d in

tern

aliz

ing

ecol

ogic

al c

osts

in p

rices

.

6. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 th

e m

ost v

alua

ble

and

high

ly s

ough

t af

ter r

esou

rces

are

in w

hat n

ow u

nder

stoo

d as

was

te. E

g. g

loba

l co

mpa

nies

com

pete

in w

ho c

an c

lear

the

Gre

at P

acifi

c G

arba

ge

Pat

ch fi

rst a

nd m

ake

best

use

of i

t.

7. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 lo

cal e

cono

mie

s ar

e hy

per e

ffect

ive

in

term

s of

use

of n

atur

al a

nd h

uman

reso

urce

s be

caus

e of

loca

lly

adap

ted

tech

nolo

gies

and

sm

art d

ivis

ion

of la

bor b

etw

een

diffe

r-en

t exp

ertis

es.

C) S

OC

IAL

BO

ND

SP

leas

e as

sess

the

prob

abili

ty, i

mpo

rtan

ce a

nd d

esira

bilit

y of

the

follo

win

g st

atem

ents

and

offe

r arg

umen

ts s

uppo

rtin

g yo

ur v

iew

s.

1. S

TATE

MEN

T : I

n 20

50 s

ocie

ties

are

hype

r-ba

lkan

ized

. Thi

s m

eans

that

mos

t of p

eopl

e in

tera

ct v

ery

little

with

peo

ple

outs

ide

thei

r ow

n so

cial

bub

ble.

The

se b

ubbl

es a

re fo

rmed

of s

ame

con-

sum

ptio

n pa

tter

ns, a

reas

of l

ivin

g, w

ork

plac

es a

nd h

obbi

es.

2. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 lo

cal p

rodu

ctio

n of

ene

rgy

and

food

hav

e dr

iven

peo

ple

to c

olla

bora

te w

ith th

eir n

eigh

bour

s on

dai

ly b

asis

.

3. S

TATE

MEN

T: I

n 20

50 th

e ex

trem

e sc

arci

ty o

f res

ourc

es h

as

driv

en p

eopl

e to

mai

ntai

n an

d bu

ild tr

ust a

nd re

puta

tion

with

thei

r m

ost i

mm

edia

te s

ocia

l gro

up.

4. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 m

ost a

dults

hav

e a

pers

onal

teac

her

or m

ento

r the

y m

eet a

t lea

st o

nce

a w

eek.

The

se te

ache

rs h

elp

peop

le to

mai

ntai

n th

eir p

hysi

cal,

psyc

holo

gica

l and

pro

fess

iona

l co

mpe

titiv

e ed

ge.

5. S

TATE

MEN

T : I

n 20

50 p

eopl

e fo

rm g

uild

s w

ith th

eir p

rofe

s-si

onal

pee

rs. G

uild

s ar

e hi

ghly

impo

rtan

t in

mai

ntai

ning

pro

fes-

sion

al s

kills

, pro

vidi

ng s

ocia

l sec

urity

and

impr

ovin

g in

divi

dual

lif

esty

les.

D) P

OLI

TIC

AL

DE

CIS

ION

MA

KIN

GP

leas

e as

sess

the

prob

abili

ty, i

mpo

rtan

ce a

nd d

esira

bilit

y of

the

follo

win

g st

atem

ents

and

offe

r arg

umen

ts s

uppo

rtin

g yo

ur v

iew

s.

1. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 pa

rliam

ents

and

oth

er re

pres

enta

tive

stru

ctur

es o

f dem

ocra

cy e

xist

but

issu

e ba

sed

inte

rest

gro

ups

have

repl

aced

pol

itica

l par

ties

as m

ain

polit

ical

act

ors.

2. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 th

ere’

s a

glob

al re

sear

ch a

nd k

now

ledg

e ba

nk th

at fo

rms

stan

dard

s fo

r all

natio

nal a

nd lo

cal l

evel

pol

itica

l de

cisi

on m

akin

g. It

gua

rant

ees

scie

ntifi

c ba

sis

for a

ll go

vern

men

t ac

tion

and

can

be u

sed

to v

eto

any

deci

sion

that

is e

cono

mic

ally

, ec

olog

ical

ly o

r soc

ially

irre

spon

sibl

e.

3. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 pe

ople

in e

lect

ions

vot

e fir

st o

n th

e sp

ecifi

c ag

enda

at h

and

for t

he c

omin

g te

rm a

nd th

en e

lect

the

repr

esen

tativ

es to

put

that

age

nda

and

goal

s fo

rwar

d.

4. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 na

tiona

l dec

isio

n m

akin

g do

esn’

t exi

st

any

mor

e. It

has

bee

n re

plac

ed b

y to

wn

base

d co

unci

ls th

at h

ave

agre

ed to

mee

t cer

tain

glo

bal s

tand

ards

.

5. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 te

chno

logy

has

mad

e al

l inf

orm

atio

n ac

cess

ible

. Thi

s ha

s le

ad p

eopl

e to

thin

k tr

ansp

aren

cy a

s a

norm

in

all

wal

ks o

f life

, inc

ludi

ng p

oliti

cs, b

usin

ess

as w

ell a

s pe

rson

al

life.

6. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 C

hina

has

acq

uire

d co

ntro

l of m

ost o

f th

e fo

und

stra

tegi

c na

tura

l res

ourc

es. T

his

has

lead

to s

ituat

ion

whe

re E

urop

ean

coun

trie

s ha

ve to

regu

late

reso

urce

str

eam

s an

d us

e. H

eavy

taxa

tion

is u

sed

to c

ontr

ol p

rivat

e us

e.

7. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 po

litic

s is

exp

ert d

riven

. Exp

ert g

roup

s de

fine

guid

elin

es a

nd b

ound

ary

cond

ition

s lo

cally

for s

uch

is-

sues

as

natu

ral r

esou

rce

usag

e an

d he

alth

than

are

bas

ed o

n ev

iden

ce.

8. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 ci

ties

have

inve

sted

hea

vily

in th

e pa

st

30 y

ears

to s

afeg

uard

gua

rant

eed

ener

gy a

nd fo

od p

rodu

ctio

n an

d re

sour

ce-e

ffici

ent i

nfra

stru

ctur

e re

gard

ing

eg. m

obili

ty a

nd

hous

ing.

In th

e pr

evio

us ro

und

of th

e S

PR

EAD

205

0 D

elph

i, tw

o

third

s of

the

answ

ers

high

light

ed th

e im

port

ance

and

pro

babi

lity

of m

ore

publ

ic in

vest

men

ts in

ena

blin

g su

stai

nabl

e lif

esty

les.

9. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 W

orld

Par

liam

ent c

ontr

ols

polic

ies

on

natu

ral r

esou

rces

. Env

ironm

enta

l tax

atio

n an

d m

arke

t mec

ha-

nism

s ar

e de

fined

glo

bally

.

E) E

NV

IRO

NM

EN

TS O

F LI

VIN

G A

ND

EN

AB

LIN

G IN

FRA

-S

TRU

CTU

RE

S

Ple

ase

asse

ss th

e pr

obab

ility

, im

port

ance

and

des

irabi

lity

of th

e fo

llow

ing

stat

emen

ts a

nd o

ffer a

rgum

ents

sup

port

ing

your

vie

ws.

1. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 m

ajor

ity o

f inv

estm

ents

pre

viou

sly

mad

e to

impr

ove

phys

ical

infr

astr

uctu

re in

citi

es a

re n

ow m

ade

with

in

virt

ual r

ealm

.

2. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 tr

aditi

onal

urb

an p

lann

ing

offe

rs m

erel

y in

fras

truc

ture

fram

ewor

k fo

r inh

abita

nts

to s

hape

thei

r sur

roun

d-in

gs th

roug

h co

llect

ive

actio

n.

3. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 m

ost o

f the

recr

eatio

nal a

nd h

ouse

hold

ac

tiviti

es a

re p

erfo

rmed

in th

e pu

blic

and

sha

red

spac

es in

stea

d of

priv

ate

ones

.

4. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 pe

ople

app

reci

ate

flexi

bilit

y an

d fu

nc-

tiona

lity

of h

omes

ove

r lar

ge li

ving

spa

ces.

5. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 sm

art t

echn

olog

ies

(mob

ility

, ene

rgy

us-

age,

recy

clin

g an

d ot

her l

ogis

tics

inte

rcon

nect

ed th

roug

h hi

ghly

ce

ntra

lized

con

trol

) hel

p pe

ople

to a

dopt

sus

tain

able

life

styl

e pa

tter

ns w

ithou

t ext

ra e

ffort

.

6. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 pr

actic

ally

all

of th

e un

built

spa

ce in

cit-

ies

is in

farm

ing

use.

7. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 in

man

y Eu

rope

an c

ities

, peo

ple

who

be

long

to p

rofe

ssio

nal g

uild

s liv

e in

the

sam

e ne

ighb

ourh

oods

.

8. S

TATE

MEN

T: In

205

0 th

e em

erge

nce

of a

dapt

ive,

dig

italiz

ed

and

loca

l ser

vice

eco

nom

y ha

s de

crea

sed

the

need

for m

obili

ty.

Page 62: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

62 | S

PR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

List

of I

nvite

d ex

pert

sYa

smin

e A

bbas

Olu

bam

idel

e A

deye

mo

Pid

gin

Per

fect

Nik

Bae

rten

P

anto

pico

nM

erve

Bed

irD

elft

Uni

vers

ity o

f Tec

hnol

ogy

Gun

illa

Blo

mqv

ist

Sw

edis

h M

inis

try

of th

e En

viro

nmen

tN

aom

i Raj

a B

oean

Mod

elM

inds

/You

thfo

odm

ovem

ent/

Kno

wm

ads

Lena

Bra

ndt

Lena

Bra

ndt

Pro

dukt

/Mar

ke/K

omm

unik

atio

nC

lare

Bra

ssR

oyal

Col

lege

of A

rt a

nd S

EED

Fou

ndat

ion

Jani

s B

rizg

aG

reen

Lib

erty

/Lat

via

and

AN

PED

John

Cha

ngS

kype

Ann

a H

ult

KTH

& C

ITIE

SM

ikel

Insa

usti

Art

eaga

Fou

ndat

ion

(Kut

xa E

kogu

nea)

Jule

Jen

ckel

358

Fran

çois

Jég

ouS

trat

egic

Des

ign

Sce

nario

sLi

isa

Kar

ttun

enB

onni

erJo

hann

es K

opon

enFo

rum

Viri

um H

elsi

nki

Juha

Kop

onen

Net

cycl

er O

yK

ai K

uikk

anie

mi

HIIT

Tobi

as L

eena

erts

EVA

vzw

Mic

hael

Let

tenm

eier

D-m

atJo

hn M

anoo

cheh

riR

esou

rce

Visi

onP

aul M

etz

Pla

tform

Sus

tain

able

& S

olid

ary

Econ

omy

Veer

a M

usto

nen

Ski

llsH

elsi

nki o

yM

aria

ana

Nel

imar

kka

Free

lanc

e jo

urna

list

Juss

i Nik

ula

WW

F Fi

nlan

dN

ikos

Pal

avits

inis

Agr

o-K

now

Tec

hnol

ogie

sS

ini P

unta

nen

Finn

ish

Tran

spor

t Age

ncy

Flor

ence

Riz

zoC

IDEL

Art

o S

ivon

enM

ånda

gD

raga

na S

tojk

ovic

Inde

pend

ent r

esea

rche

rS

ebas

tian

Str

aube

Inst

ytut

Odp

owie

dzia

lneg

o B

izne

s

Vict

oria

W. T

hore

sen

PER

L, H

edm

ark

Uni

vers

ity C

olle

geS

haw

n W

estc

ott

SS

D A

dvis

ers

Isab

el W

etze

lLS

EVe

nla

Virk

amäk

iFi

nnis

h A

ssoc

iatio

n fo

r Nat

ure

Con

serv

atio

n

List

of p

artic

ipat

ing

SP

RE

AD

Pro

ject

par

tner

s an

d ad

viso

rsA

na A

lcan

tud

Ecoi

nstit

ut B

arce

lona

Ines

Bie

derm

ann

Hen

kel A

G &

Co

KG

aAN

ora

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ggem

ann

CS

CP

Cri

stin

a C

hiot

anEu

roH

ealth

Net

Mar

ta C

orub

olo

PO

LIM

va C

sobo

dR

ECE

ngin

Guv

enc

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SD

Tur

key

Elin

a H

eiki

nhei

mo

Dem

os H

elsi

nki

Che

ryl H

icks

CS

CP

Sin

i Hir

vone

nD

emos

Hel

sink

iTu

uli K

aski

nen

Dem

os H

elsi

nki

Tom

mi K

aupp

inen

Dem

os H

elsi

nki

Out

i Kui

ttin

enD

emos

Hel

sink

iK

aisa

Kär

kiD

emos

Hel

sink

iJu

ha L

eppä

nen

Dem

os H

elsi

nki

Sat

u Lä

htee

noja

Dem

os H

elsi

nki

Ann

a M

eron

iP

OLI

MI

Roo

pe M

okka

Dem

os H

elsi

nki

Oks

ana

Mon

tU

LUN

DA

leks

i Neu

vone

nD

emos

Hel

sink

iH

arri

Pal

ohei

mo

Nok

iaM

ia P

auko

vic

ECN

Kur

t P

elem

an

Ash

oka

Leid

a R

ijnho

utA

NP

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aria

Rito

laD

emos

Hel

sink

iK

im-P

atri

ck S

abla

Uni

vers

ity o

f Vec

hta

Bet

tina

Sch

aefe

rEc

oins

titut

Bar

celo

naK

oen

Str

aver

ECN

Ott

ó S

zabó

REC

Pét

er S

zupp

inge

rR

ECS

imo

Vass

inen

Dem

os H

elsi

nki

Ann

ex B

:

SPR

EAD

Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050

Cou

ntin

g B

ackw

ards

Wor

ksho

p

(Tuu

sula

, Fin

land

23–

25 N

ovem

ber 2

011)

Page 63: Scenarios for sustainable life to 2050

Sce

nario

s fo

r Sus

tain

able

Life

styl

es 2

050:

Fro

m G

loba

l Cha

mpi

ons

to L

ocal

Loo

ps | 6

3

Ref

eren

ces

IEA

(201

0) “

Ener

gy te

chno

logi

es P

ersp

ectiv

es

2010

: Sce

nario

s an

d st

rate

gies

to 2

050.

” In

tern

atio

nal E

nerg

y A

genc

y, P

aris

.

EEA

(201

0a) “

The

Euro

pean

env

ironm

ent –

sta

te

and

outlo

ok 2

010:

syn

thes

is.”

Eu

rope

an E

nviro

nmen

t Age

ncy,

Cop

enha

gen.

Lett

enm

eier

, M. (

2012

) “S

usta

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and

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: U

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pert

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stitu

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olla

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