ASIA 2050:

SCENARIOS, CHALLENGES

AND OPPORTUNITIES

1

Dr. Stefanos Fotiou, UNEP

Disclaimer2

The quantitative data, models and scenarios in

this presentation are coming form the UNEP

publication:

Resource Efficiency: Economics and Outlook

for Asia and the Pacific

http://www.unep.org/publications/contents/pub_detai

ls_search.asp?ID=6217

The content and views expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do

not necessarily reflect the views or policies, or carry the endorsement of the

contributory organisations or the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP)

Energy Use Globally and in

Asia3

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Peta

joule

s

Asia Pacific

Rest of World

World

Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES)

Sources of energy in Asia4

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Peta

joule

s

Petroleum

Nuclear

Non-Hydro Renewables

Natural Gas

Hydro

Coal

Energy per capita Globally and in

Asia5

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Gig

ajo

ule

s /

Cap

ita

Asia Pacific

Rest of World

World

Energy use per $ (energy

intensity)6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Megajo

ule

s /

$U

S

Asia Pacific

Rest of World

World

Resource Use Globally and in

Asia7

Domestic materials consumption for the Asia-Pacific region, Rest of the World, and World, for the years 1970 – 2008

A significant share of the region’s

resource consumption is

related with export to countries

outside of the region

However, most of the resources are

used for end-consumption in the

region

What Asia is consuming?8

A doubling of the use of biomass – a six time increase in the use of non-renewable resources

Resource Use per capita9

Domestic materials consumption per capita for the Asia-Pacific region, Rest of

the World, and World, for the years 1970 – 2008

Asia Pacific was

consuming just one third

of the Rest of the World

Asia Pacific is

now

consuming as

much as the

Rest of the

World

Resource Use per $10

Material Intensity for the Asia-Pacific, Rest of World and World, for the years 1971 –

2005. (Materials are Total Domestic Material Consumption, dollars are constant year 2000 $US, exchange rate based)

Each dollar of

GDP requires

increasing

amounts of natural

resources.

Implications11

At the beginning of the 21st century, the Asia-Pacific region has overtaken the rest of the world to become

the single largest user of natural resources.

Material efficiency in Asia and the Pacific was stagnant until 1990 and since then the region has

lost efficiency

Energy use in Asia and the Pacific has rapidly grown since 1970 from 25% to over 35% of

global demand

High (current and future) environmental cost

Implications12

Overall GHG emissions increased from 1990-2005 from 10 billion to 16 billion

tonnes

Water supplies likely to be increasingly under pressure as demand and populations increase

Changing land use systems: although efficiency is generally improving the urbanization trend is

still in its infancy

Dual objective13

Global sustainability depends on the

creation and implementation of effective

policies to support the dynamic Asia-Pacific

region to transition to a new sustainable

industrial system

Dual objectives of increasing the material standard of living of people and

reducing poverty, whilst ensuring the integrity of resources and the

environment

The ability of countries in Asia and the

Pacific to prosper and to remain

competitive will depend on public

policies that guide and enable

resource efficiency and systems

innovation

Some scenarios14

Business as usual, Resource Efficiency, System

Innovation

Business as Usual15

Resource Efficiency16

System Innovation17

What might happen (materials)?18

What might happen (materials)?19

What might happen (energy)?20

What might happen (energy)?21

What we need22

Strategies

And

Policies

Practices Investments

Focus on

resources

Change of BAU

Mainstreaming

Mobilising

Financial

Capital

How we reply: 1. Life-cycle

approach23

How we reply: 2. Policy tools24

How we reply: 3. System’s

Innovation approach25

Changes to consumption and lifestyle habits, urban form,

transportation modes, energy production, and economic

structure

Technological improvements that permit efficiency gains to

be achieved without impinging on nutritional

budgets or quality of life in developing countries

Massive investments in infrastructure, skills and

institutions and governance capacity supporting

sustainable development

Strengthening existing fiscal and financial instruments for

creating incentives for resource efficiency

interventions

Focus areas

@stefanosfotiou

Thank you!26