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EMISSION SCENARIOS A consistent glance at the future

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Emission sCenarios. A consistent glance at the future. Goal. Starting Point. Emission Scenarios. PSz. National Program. vTI. NEC. Approach. Central Emission System (CES): Detailed data von activities (AD), emission factors (EF) and emissions (EM) Time series from 1990 onwards, - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Emission  sCenarios

EMISSION SCENARIOS

A consistent glance at the future

Page 2: Emission  sCenarios

Goal

Page 3: Emission  sCenarios

1990

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Page 4: Emission  sCenarios

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

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Page 5: Emission  sCenarios

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

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Page 6: Emission  sCenarios

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

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Page 7: Emission  sCenarios

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

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Page 8: Emission  sCenarios

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

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Page 9: Emission  sCenarios

Starting Point

Page 10: Emission  sCenarios

GHG Air HM POP

EnergyIndustrySolventsAgricul.

LULUCF

Waste

PSz

vTI

NationalProgram

NEC

Emission Scenarios

Page 11: Emission  sCenarios

Approach

Page 12: Emission  sCenarios

Central Emission System (CES):

Detailed data von activities (AD), emission factors (EF) and emissions (EM)

Time series from 1990 onwards,Represents baseline scenario (“REF“)

Defined interface:Aggregated AD, EM, IEF for CES-data

Standard format

Emission scenarios:

CES-consistent emission data for scenarios,Extrapolation of aggregated implied EF,“Translation” of GHG-scenarios for air pollution,Scenarios up to 2050

Projection and Scenario projects

1. Supply of base data for scenarios2. Adjustment for recalculation3. Project results feed into emission

projection database

Products

Public information:Trend tables, “real-time” inventory

Emission reporting:Tables in CRF- and NFR-format, gridded emissions, indicators

Extra assessments:Base data for internal and external assessments

Projections:“Translation” of GHG-scenarios for air pollution,Assessment of UBA-scenarios

1.

2.

3.

Page 13: Emission  sCenarios

EM

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

AR*

EF=

Page 14: Emission  sCenarios

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Page 15: Emission  sCenarios

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

AR 1200 1205 1100 1050 1000 950 800 820 700

IEF 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,08 0,08

EM 120 120,5 110 105 100 95 80 65,6 56

Page 16: Emission  sCenarios

Implementation

Page 17: Emission  sCenarios

Central Emission System

Emission Scenarios

AR x EF = EM

2.496 20.922 20.922

153 1.512 1.512

Page 18: Emission  sCenarios

Szenarios

REF I2.6 PSzV-MMS PSzV-MWMS PSzV-SWS

Page 19: Emission  sCenarios

Result

Page 20: Emission  sCenarios
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TODO