Climate Change Science: Climate Change Science: What we know today and What we know today and

future impactsfuture impacts

Tim KilleenDirector, National Center for

Atmospheric ResearchPresident, AGU

Overview

• Why climate change science in the classroom?

• Climate versus Weather

• Climate Models• Climate Change

Observations• IPCC 4th Assessment

Summary for Policy Makers

• Future Impacts

Annual layers of ice, Quelccaya Ice Cap, PeruCourtesy of Lonnie Thompson

It’s warmer on average across the globe than it was a half century ago.

Globally averaged, the planet is about 0.75°C warmer than it was in 1860, based upon dozens of high-quality long records using thermometers worldwide, including land and ocean.

Random chance of 11 of the last 12 years being among 12 warmest: less than 1:100,000

Why Focus on Climate Change?

• Societal Relevance• National Science Education

Standards (NRC, 1996)• Interdisciplinary content

spans broad spectrum of the geosciences

• Opportunities for authentic inquiry-based learning

A focus area providing opportunity for students to engage in research-driven learning with high motivation in an interdisciplinary context.

Polar bears on melting ice berg in Beaufort Sea, 2004Courtesy Environment Canada

Relevance of Climate Change to the NSES

• Unifying concepts and processes

• Science as Inquiry• Physical Science• Life Science• Earth and Space Science• Science and Technology• Science in Personal and

Social Perspectives• History and Nature of

Science

NSES Content Standards, Grades 5-8

Unifying Concepts and Processes•Systems, order, and organization•Evidence, models, and explanation•Change, constancy, and measurement•Evolution and equilibrium

Science as Inquiry

•Abilities necessary to do scientific inquiry•Understandings about scientific inquiry

Physical Science

•Properties and changes of properties in matter•Motions and forces•Transfer of energy

Life Science

•Populations and ecosystems•Diversity and adaptations of organisms

Earth and Space Science

•Structure of the Earth system•Earth’s history•Earth in the solar system

Science and Technology

•Understandings about science and technology

Science in Personal and Social Perspectives

•Populations, resources, and environments•Natural hazards•Risks and benefits•Science and technology in society

History and Nature of Science

•Science as a human endeavor•Nature of science•History of science

NSES Content Standards, Grades 9-12

Unifying Concepts and Processes•Systems, order, and organization•Evidence, models, and explanation•Change, constancy, and measurement•Evolution and equilibrium

Science as Inquiry

•Abilities necessary to do scientific inquiry•Understandings about scientific inquiry

Physical Science

•Chemical reactions•Motions and forces•Conservation of energy and increase in disorder•Interactions of energy and matter

Life Science

•Biological evolution•Interdependence of organisms•Behavior of organisms

Earth and Space Science

•Energy in the Earth system•Geochemical cycles•Origin and evolution of the Earth system

Science and Technology

•Understandings about science and technology

Science in Personal and Social Perspectives

•Population growth•Natural resources•Environmental quality•Natural and human-induced hazards•Science and technology in local, national, and global challenges

History and Nature of Science

•Science as a human endeavor•Nature of scientific knowledge•Historical perspectives

Climate

• Global climate is driven by energy from the Sun and modulated by atmospheric composition

• The average weather for a region over a long period of time – 30 years or more

• Determined by latitude, altitude, topography, proximity to oceans/position in land mass

• Characterized by temperature, winds, and rainfall

You buy clothes based on climate

You wear clothes based on weather

The Challenge of Simulating the Global Earth System

Atmosphere Hydrosphere Cryosphere Biosphere

Timeline of Climate Model Development

R15 T42

T85 T170

Model Resolutions

Climate System Models

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are needed to see this picture.

~ highest level of CO2 over past 400 Kyrs

Increase intemperature trackscarbon emissionsand CO2

CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source: Vimeu et al., 2002,

100’s of thousands of years:Ice Core Data

today450,000 yrs ago time

Glaciers are Retreating GloballyIn Switzerland…In Switzerland… In Alaska…In Alaska…

Qori Kalis Glacier,Quelccaya Ice Cap, Perubetween 1978 and 2000.

Courtesy of L. Thompson, Byrd Polar Research Center

Permafrost in the Permafrost in the Arctic is melting, Arctic is melting, leading to leading to infrastructure infrastructure damage as well as damage as well as disrupting disrupting subsistence life subsistence life stylesstyles

Ice is breaking up Ice is breaking up earlier on rivers and earlier on rivers and lakes in the spring lakes in the spring around the worldaround the world

Rise in Global Mean Sea Level

250 Year Record of Leafing Out Date of English Oaks

Natural Variations do not explain observed climatic change

• Climate models with natural forcing (including volcanic and solar) do not reproduce warming

• When increase in greenhouse gases is included, models do reproduce warming

• Addition of increase in aerosols (cooling) improves agreement

IPCC 4th Assessment Summary for Policy Makers, 2007

NCAR Simulations: A Door Ajar!Abrupt Transitions in the Summer Sea Ice

ObservationsSimulated5-year running mean

• Gradual forcing results in abrupt Sept ice decrease

• Extent decreases from 80 to 20% coverage in 10 years.

“Abrupt”transition

20,000 years ago 2200? ( + 5 meters)

Past and Future Rise in Sea Level

Zwally et al., (2002) ScienceAlley et al. (2005) Science

Multiple new dynamic mechanisms for increased ice sheet sensitivity to surface warming have been discovered

Location and frequency of glacial earthquakes on Greenland. Seismic magnitudes are in range 4.6 to 5.1.Source: Ekstrom, Nettles and Tsai, Science, 311, 1756, 2006.

Earthquake Locations Annual Number of Quakes*

* 2005 bars capture only first 10 months of 2005

Glacial Earthquakes on Greenland

CLIMATE

CHANGE

Temperature Rise 1

Sea level Rise 2

Extreme Weather Events

Heat

Respiratory diseases

Vector-borne Diseases

Water-borne Diseases

Changes in water availability,

infrastructure & food supply

Environmental Refugees

Heat Stress MortalityUrban Heat islands

Ozone

MalariaDengueWest Nile VirusEncephalitisHantavirusRift Valley Fever

CholeraCyclosporaCryptosporidiosisCampylobacterLeptospirosis

Waste System failureRunoffDiarrheaToxic Red TidesMalnutrition

Forced MigrationOvercrowdingInfectious diseases

Health Effect of Climate ChangeHealth Effect of Climate Change

Climate Myths• Climate has always varied (yes, but a lot of that variability was forced and we know what is forcing current change).

• The upper atmosphere isn’t warming - it’s only the surface (bad data was confusing for a while….this is not true).

• The sun is causing the current changes (the sun hasn’t changed in recent decades - neither brightness nor cosmic rays nor length of the cycle…).

• Greenhouse gases are natural (sure, but look at how they’ve changed).

• Water vapor is the dominant GHG (sure, but it responds to changes in climate - it doesn’t force them…).

• Good things are happening - longer growing season at mid-latitudes, etc. (good things aren’t happening everywhere).

Some Great Websites on Climate• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)- http://www.ipcc.ch/index.html• US Global Change Research Program (lots of good stuff)-

http://www.usgcrp.gov/usgcrp/default.htm• World Health Organization (WHO) -

http://www.who.int/peh/climate/climate_and_health.htm• US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) –

http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/content/Climate.html• National Snow and Ice Data Center (great cryosphere data)- http://nsidc.org/noaa/• National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate and Global Dynamics -

http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/• Climate HotSpots Map (AMAZING!)- http://www.climatehotmap.org/index.html• Vital Climate Graphics (Great ppt Graphics)-

http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/index.htm• World View of Global Warming (photos)- http://www.worldviewofglobalwarming.org/• Exploratorium Global Change Research Explorer -

http://www.exploratorium.edu/climate/index.html• Global Environmental Change and Our Health -

http://www.pbs.org/journeytoplanetearth/johnshopkins/index.html• NCAR Education and Outreach Website – www.ncar.ucar.edu/eo

We have a duty to all the world’s people… and especially to the children of the world, to whom the future belongs

- UN Millennium Goals

Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored

Aldous Huxley