Climate Science

PITAC Computational Science Subcommittee

Tim KilleenDirector, National Center for Atmospheric Research

President-Elect, American Geophysical Union

19 October 2004

Community Climate System model

CCSM June, 2004 Workshop in Santa Fe:>300 participants, >30 universities, >50 institutions

High Performance Supercomputing at NCAR

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Peak TFLOPs at NCAR

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04

IBM Opteron/Linux(lightning)

IBM POWER4/Federation(thunder)

IBM POWER4/Colony(bluesky)

IBM POWER4 (bluedawn)

SGI Origin3800/128(chinook)

IBM POWER3(blackforest)

IBM POWER3 (babyblue)

Compaq ES40/32(prospect)

SGI Origin2000/128 (ute)

HP SPP-2000/64 (sioux)

CRI Cray C90/16 (antero)

CRI Cray J90 series

Cray C90/16

HP SPP2000

SGI Origin2000

blackforest

WH-1

blackforestWH-2

ARCS Phase 1

blackforest upgradeSGI Origin3800

ARCS Phase 2bluesky

ARCS Phase 3bluesky expansion

Linux cluster “Lightning” commissioned October 2004, providing >12 teraflopsTotal for community use

SCD community computing still oversubscribedBy factor of 3!

The Earth System modeling Framework: A High-

Performance Framework for Earth Science Modeling & Data Assimilation

ESMF INFRASTRUCTUREintegrated system utilities

ESMF SUPERSTRUCTUREcoupling services

user-created model components

ESMF Architecturegridded components,coupling components,custom components

grids, transforms,communication kernel,timekeeping, …

Earth System Modeling Framework Rollout

GFDL FMS B-grid atmosphere

GFDL MOM4 ocean

GFDL POM or MOM4

NCAR CAM

NCEP/NCAR WRF

NCEP atmosphere

NCEP analysis

NCEP model

DAO fvCAMDAO analysis

NSIPP atmosphere

NSIPP ocean

LANL CICE

Earth System

Modeling Framework

Development

MITgcm ocean

Adoption

All JMC validation codes compliant - April 04

UCLA AGCM

LANL HYPOP

CLM

GSFC Global LIS

Early adopters of the ESMF

- Broad use - Enhancement- Maintenance

One of: GISS, COLA, IRI, JPL, LLNL, Colorado State, U.Illinois, Scripps, U.Miami, NOAA FSL, Florida State, Rutgers, ORNL, Air Force Weather Agency, U.Washington

11/04

8/04

1/05

14 major Earth system codes

Each is coupled to a code never coupled to before:

- 3 by July 03 - all 14 by July 04

Unprecedented software sharing ease among the

nation’s major Earth system models

NASA

NASA

NASA NASANSF

NSF

NSF

NSF

NOAANSF

NOAA

NOAA

NOAA

DOE

MIT

NASA

DOE

?

UCLAE

arly

ESTOEarth Science Technology OfficeJim Fisher

June 2004: UCAR/NCAR joins National Lambda Rail (NLR)

NCAR/SCD will serve: Colorado School of Mines, Colorado State University, University of Colorado at Boulder, University of Colorado at Denver, NOAA Boulder labs, University of Utah, and the University of Wyoming.

NLR provides 4 separate 10 gigabit-per-second pathways, extensible to ~40 total

CCSM IPCC Work Flow: Grid Computing?

Simulation of Recent Climate

Ninth Annual CCSM Workshop

Contributions to IPCC Fourth Assessment

• Three phases:– Pre-industrial (1870)– 20th Century (1870-2000)– Emissions Scenarios

• SRES Scenarios:

– Commitment (20th C. CO2)• 2000-2100 (5 runs)• 2100-2200 (1 run)

– A1B and B1 Scenarios • 2000-2100 (5 runs)• 2100-2200 Const (5

runs)• 2200-2300 Const (1 run)

– A2 Scenario• 2000-2100 (5 runs)

A1B

B1

Commitment

Ninth Annual CCSM WorkshopExtensions to Physical Climate System

Multi-Century Coupled Carbon/Climate Simulations

Net CO2 Flux (Pg C/yr)

• Fully prognostic land and ocean carbon

• “Stable” carbon cycle and climate over 1000 year control

• 21st century projections show lower CO2 concentrations than previous studies

• Challenge: understanding differences in projections due to interactive carbon

Surface Temp.

CCSM IPCC Data Integration and Distribution via GIS Tools

• 100 Terabyte Output

1. GIS: visualization and simple data manipulation

2. GIS analysis and mapping (interpolation, overlay with land use and demographic data, raster calculations, geographic analysis)

Carbon Assimilation

CO2 CH4

N2O VOCsDust

HeatMoistureMomentum

ClimateTemperature, Precipitation,Radiation, Humidity, Wind

ChemistryCO2, CH4, N2Oozone, aerosols

MicroclimateCanopy Physiology

Species CompositionEcosystem StructureNutrient AvailabilityWater

DisturbanceFiresHurricanesIce StormsWindthrows

EvaporationTranspirationSnow MeltInfiltrationRunoff

Gross Primary ProductionPlant RespirationMicrobial RespirationNutrient Availability

Ecosystems

Species CompositionEcosystem Structure

Watersheds

Surface WaterSubsurface WaterGeomorphology

Biogeophysics

Ene

rgy

Wat

er

Aer

o-dy

nam

ics

Biogeochemistry

MineralizationDecomposition

Hydrology

Soi

l W

ater

Sno

w

Inte

r-ce

pted

Wat

er

Phenology

Bud Break

Leaf Senescence

HydrologicCycle

VegetationDynamics

Min

ute

s-T

o-H

ou

rsD

ays-

To

-Wee

ks

Yea

rs-T

o-C

en

turi

esComponents Of Terrestrial Biogeoscience

Gordon Bonan

The Global N CycleThe Global C Cycle

Earth System Modeling

Preliminary focus on carbon and nitrogen cycle modeling across spatial scales, and interactions of these cycles with

the climate system.

Nitrogen Cycle in Earth System Modeling (cont.)

N forcing

Adapted from Summary for Policymakers, IPCC 2001

C flux

Legend

Tempsensitivity

N flux

AtmosphericCO2

VegetationBiomass

SoilOrganicMatter

AtmosphericN species

Coupled Carbon-Nitrogen dynamics• Strong feedback between decomposition and plant growth: soil mineral N is the primary source of N for plant growth.

• Can result in a shift from C source to C sink under warming.

NEE response to +1° C step change

(temperate deciduous broadleaf forest)

C-only model

Coupled C-N modelsink

sour

ce

Thornton, in prep.

Longer-term MissionsLonger-term Missions - - Observation of Key Earth System InteractionsObservation of Key Earth System Interactions

Terra

Aura

Aqua

Landsat 7

Exploratory - Exploratory - Explore Specific Earth System Processes and Parameters and Explore Specific Earth System Processes and Parameters and Demonstrate TechnologiesDemonstrate Technologies

GRACE

PICASSO

Cloudsat

QuikScat

EO-1

ICEsat Jason-1

SRTMVCL

We Will Examine Practically Every Aspect of the We Will Examine Practically Every Aspect of the Earth System from Space in This DecadeEarth System from Space in This Decade

Triana

100,000

10,000

1,000

100

10

1

0.1

YEAR

1999 2000 2010

Daily Upper-Air Observation Countsused for operational purposes

Computational Demands for CCSM Science Increasing

Thanks to Jeff Kiehl/Bill Collins

Summary Effective, institution-to-institution, cyberinfrastructure

provision over the past 5 years has catapulted the US into international leadership in climate system modeling and analysis

Preservation of this leadership position requires augmented high-performance systems, dedicated to general domain arena

Climate Systems modeling is giving way to Earth Systems modeling with data ingestion and decision-support tools. Societal, regional, and international dimensions all increasing in importance with time.

DiscussionDiscussion