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Dividend  Delivered  or  Climate  Catastrophe?  An  Assessment  of  Indian  Urban  Development  

Trajectories  in  the  Anthropocene    

                   

By  Philip  Killeen  University  Honors  Spring  2015  

Capstone  Advisors:  Miles  Kahler,  PhD  School  of  International  Studies  

Christopher  Rudolph,  PhD  School  of  International  Studies            

   

                       

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Contents:    I.  Abstract  &  Introduction                 3  II.  Literature  Review                 6  III.  Demographic  Trends                 14  IV.  Environmental  Trends                 21  V.  India’s  Infrastructure  Bottlenecks  &  Historic  Urban  Development   23  Framework  VI.  Content  of  the  Smart  Cities  Initiative             30  VII.  Progress  and  Criticisms  of  the  Smart  Cities  Initiative       32  VIII.  Policy  Reform  Recommendations  and  Conclusion       35  IX.  Appendix                     40  X.  Bibliography                   46                      

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Abstract:  

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 Experiencing  robust  and  sustained  population  growth,  India  is  projected  to  

bear  a  demographic  bulge  of  working  age  citizens  through  the  first  half  of  the  21st  century.  One  notable  outcome  of  this  trend  is  the  rapid  movement  to  and  growth  of  India's  urban  centers,  with  profound  implications  on  India's  economic  development  and  environmental  integrity.  The  scope  of  this  paper  is  to  assess  how  the  political,  environmental,  and  socio-­‐economic  dynamics  underlying  India's  urban  growth  trajectory  interface  with  proposed  policy  reform,  and  to  explore  through  which  means  developmental  and  sustainability  outcomes  can  be  improved.  

 I. Introduction  

Outlining,  arguably,  the  most  ambitious  urban  development  project  of  the  21st  century,  Narendra  Modi’s  Smart  Cities  Initiative  benchmarks  the  creation  of  100  new  “smart”  cities—with  modernized  and  environmentally  sustainable  transport,  housing,  utility,  and  connectivity  services.  This  expansive  policy  framework  has  been  announced  to  meet  the  demand  for  increased  urbanization  in  India—driven  by  rapid  population  growth  and  immigration  to  cities  from  India’s  dispersed  rural  population.     This  announcement  provides  a  unique  opportunity  for  urban-­‐focused  sustainable  development  in  India,  a  country  whose  economic  emergence  will  be  pivotal  for  the  global  climate  change  mitigation  regime.  According  to  Indian  Census  data,  India’s  urban  population  is  expected  to  increase  to  590  million  by  20301.  This  represents  an  increase  of  230  million  from  the  approximate  377  million  currently  in  urban  centers.  Research  on  productivity  in  India  estimates  that  cities  could  generate  up  to  70%  of  new  Indian  jobs  through  2030—fueling  70%  of  GDP  and  allowing  the  country  to  capitalize  on  a  substantial  demographic  dividend2.  Coupling  this  transition,  however,  is  the  enormous  burden  placed  on  India’s  public  administration  to  finance,  oversee  large-­‐scale  construction,  and  facilitate  private  sector  involvement  in  the  creation  of  urban  environments—estimated  by  the  McKinsey  Global  Institute  to  cost  approximately  US  $1.2  trillion  in  capital  expenditure  through  2030,  nearly  eight  times  the  level  of  its  current  spending3.  

Establishing  salient  linkages  between  urban  design  and  economic  benefit  across  strata  of  Indian  society  will  be  essential  to  increasing  stakeholder  buy-­‐in  and  investor  follow-­‐through  for  Modi’s  initiative.  The  need  for  robust  governance  on  India’s  urban  development  extends  beyond  federal  level  leadership  from  the  Modi  administration,  however.  With  a  past  dominated  by  policy  and  governance  geared  towards  rural  settings,  India’s  state  level  parliamentary  and  mayoral  leadership  has  a  crucial  role  to  play  in  implementing  national  policy.  

While  essential  to  its  economic  emergence,  this  demographic  transition  also  poses  substantial  challenges  to  the  regional  and  global  sustainability  regime.  If  

                                                                                                               1 "Population Enumeration Information." Censusindia.gov. Ministry of Home Affairs, 2011. Web. 2 "Reaping India's Promised Demographic Dividend--Industry in the Driving Seat." Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (2011): n. pag. Ey.com. Ernst and Young, 2013. Web. 3 Schanka, Shirish. "India's Urban Awakening: Building Inclusive Cities, Sustaining Economic Growth.". McKinsey Global Institute, Apr. 2010. Web.

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Modi’s  sustainability-­‐related  urban  development  benchmarks  are  not  met,  India  risks  compromising  its  environmental  heritage  and  the  economic  livelihoods  of  future  generations.  Lacking  formalized  commitment  to  climate  change  mitigation,  enforcing  the  sustainability  related  components  of  Modi’s  Smart  Cities  Initiative,  therefore,  seems  critical  to  India’s  meaningful  participation  in  the  global  sustainability  regime.    

By  assessing  the  political,  environmental,  and  socio-­‐economic  dynamics  underlying  India’s  record  of  urban  development  and  governance,  it  becomes  clear  that,  as  written,  Modi’s  Smart  Cities  Initiative  is  insufficient  to  meet  the  challenge  of  directing  India  towards  sustainable  and  equitable  economic  development  alone.  To  improve  the  outcomes  of  this  policy  framework,  Modi  should  combine  strong  and  informed  federal  leadership  with  engagement  of  potential  financial  partners,  empowerment  of  municipal  governance  bodies,  and  reformation  of  urban  development  policy.  Doing  so  will  tailor  urban  development  solutions  to  the  specific  economic  and  cultural  needs  of  India’s  diverse  society  while  also  contributing  meaningfully  to  the  mitigation  of  and  adaption  to  regional  and  global  climate  threats.    II.  Literature  Review     A  growing  body  of  research,  focused  on  exploring  the  implications  of  urbanization  in  the  context  of  climate  change  and  sustainability,  informs  the  scope  and  motivation  of  this  paper.  As  climate  change  is  a  global  issue,  these  studies  have  been  applied  to  countries  of  nearly  all  socio-­‐economic  and  developmental  strata.  This  literature  review,  however,  focuses  on  the  cross-­‐section  of  this  body  of  research  concerning  sustainable  urbanization  in  emerging  economies  as  it  is  of  greatest  relevance  to  India.  Amongst  these  studies,  recurrent  themes  of  municipal  government  and  community  empowerment,  resource  efficiency,  financing  networks,  and  regulatory  reform  are  identified  as  lynchpins  essential  to  the  reconciliation  of  economic  development  with  climate  change.    Demographic  Transition  Theory  

Framing  most  contemporary  analysis  of  urbanization  trends  in  emerging  economies,  Demographic  Transition  Theory  and  respondent  critiques  assess  the  impact  of  modernization  on  population  dynamics  of  emerging  economies.  Conventionally  regarded  as  the  origin  of  the  term,  Population:  the  long  view4  by  Frank  Notestein  observes  how  the  dynamic  of  states  experiencing  modernization  is  normally  characterized  by  rapidly  decreasing  mortality  rates  preceding  the  more  gradual  decline  of  fertility  rates.  Notestein  identifies  the  reduction  of  epidemics  by  vaccination  and  better  hygiene,  improved  treatment  and  diagnosis  of  disease,  reduced  famine  due  to  greater  agricultural  output,  and  fewer  instances  of  civil  war  and  conflict  due  to  stronger  international  institutions  as  factors  promoting  the  rapid  reduction  of  mortality  rates  observed  in  states  integrating  with  the  global  economy  and  experiencing  modernization.  

                                                                                                               4 Notestein, F.W. “Population: The Long View.” Popline.org. University of Chicago Press, 1945. Web.

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Identifying  the  vectors  through  which  fertility  rates  declined  in  these  states  proved  more  challenging—with  early  research  relying  on  somewhat  dogmatic  conventions  of  increased  morality  and  intelligence  accompanying  modernization  and  altering  “uncivilized”  cultural  norms  in  these  states.  Subsequent  research  on  Demographic  Transition  Theory  has  expanded  upon  these  observations—providing  more  nuanced  analysis  of  factors  through  which  the  subsequent  declines  in  fertility  could  be  explained.  An  Economic  Framework  for  Fertility  Analysis5  by  Richard  Easterlin  identifies  economic  “supply  factors,”  such  as  monetary,  time,  and  physic  constraints  in  contraception  use  and  family  planning  as  well  as  “demand  factors,”  such  as  desired  family  size  and  religious  beliefs,  explaining  the  comparatively  gradual  reduction  of  fertility  rates  in  less-­‐developed  states.  

It  is  important  here  to  note  that  the  sequence  of  population  effects  outlined  in  the  Demographic  Transition  Theory  is  not  uniformly  supported  by  its  associated  research.  Jeremy  Greenwood  and  Anath  Seshadri  observe  in  The  U.S.  Demographic  Transition6  that,  during  its  interface  with  modernization  in  the  1800s,  the  United  States  experienced  a  rapid  decline  in  fertility  rates  preceding  the  very  gradual  decline  of  mortality  rates  in  the  country  over  one  hundred  years  later.  Greenwood  and  Seshadri  attribute  this  exception  of  Demographic  Transition  Theory  to  westward  expansion  and  the  ability  of  poor  migrants  to  exponentially  populate  the  country  in  a  short  period  of  time.  

More  closely  reflecting  the  Western  European-­‐influenced  colonial  context  seen  in  India,  The  State  and  Pre-­‐Colonial  Demographic  History:  The  Case  of  Nineteenth-­‐Century  Madagascar7  by  Gwyn  Campbell  challenges  the  uniform  applicability  of  Demographic  Transition  Theory  in  post-­‐colonial  states.  Established  as  a  French  protectorate  in  1882,  Madagascar’s  Merina  government  initially  implemented  domestically  oriented  pro-­‐agricultural  growth  policies—associated  with  observable  benefits  to  the  health,  size,  and  productivity  of  Madagascar’s  labor  force.  Campbell  suggests,  however,  that  once  directed  towards  militaristic  expansion  by  its  French  colonial  overseers,  the  Merina  government  implemented  exploitative  labor  policy—associated  with  disease,  poverty,  and  malnutrition.  As  a  result,  Madagascar’s  perverse  initial  demographic  outcome  of  “modernization”  was  higher  rates  of  infant  and  adult  mortality.  These  findings  demonstrate  the  importance  of  considering  the  impact  of  colonial  legacy,  supplementing  conventional  analysis  of  modernization  effects  on  population  dynamics,  in  assessing  the  legitimacy  of  Demographic  Transition  Theory.  

Concentrating  yet  more  precisely  on  the  assessment  of  Demographic  Transition  Theory  in  India,  Policy  Lessons  of  the  East  Asian  Demographic  Transition8  by  Geoffrey  McNicoll  notes  commonalities  of  social  and  economic  policy  

                                                                                                               5 Easterlin, Richard. “An Economic Framework for Fertility Analysis.” Ssc.wisc.edu Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 6, No. 3. March 1975. Web. 6 “ Greenwood, Jeremy and Ananth Seshadri. “The U.S. Demographic Transition.” Jstor.org. The American Economic Review, Vol. 92, No. 2. May 2002. Web. 7 Campbell, Gwyn. “The State and Pre-Colonial Demographic History: The Case of Nineteenth-Century Madagascar.” Jstor.org. The Journal of African History, Vol. 32, No. 3. 1991. Web. 8 McNicoll, Geoffrey. “Policy Lessons of the East Asian Demographic Transition.” Jstor.org Population and Development Review, Vol 32, No. 1. March 2006. Web.

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implementation  of  India’s  modernizing  neighbor  states,  including  Taiwan,  South  Korea,  Thailand,  Malaysia,  Indonesia,  China,  and  Vietnam.  McNicoll  identifies  regional  commonalities  in  the  formation  of  strong  authoritarian  governance,  increased  provision  of  health,  education,  and  family  welfare  services,  and  the  loosening  of  foreign  direct  investment  controls  characteristic  of  liberal  economic  policy  as  vectors  promoting  decreased  mortality  and  fertility  rates  in  the  region.  

Paralleling  these  observations,  McNicoll  acknowledges  how  changes  in  family  economic  conditions  and  opportunities  also  stimulated  greater  demand  for  education,  health,  and  family  planning  services  from  the  families  themselves.  Applied  to  women’s  rights,  these  insights  were  formational  to  the  establishment  of  institutions  such  as  the  United  Nations  Population  Fund  1994  Cario  Program  of  Action,  rebranding  fertility  management  policy  from  “crude  demographics”  to  an  issue  of  women’s  reproductive  health.  This  insight  is  significant  in  that  it  recognizes  the  agency  of  families  in  modernizing  states  as  actors,  influencing  population  dynamics  and  actualizing  endogenous  social  values.  This  research  counters  the  prevailing  logic  that  external  forces  are  solely  responsible  for  changing  cultural  norms  towards  population  dynamics  witnessed  during  the  demographic  transition.    Demographic  Dividend  Theory     Having  established  the  broad  parameters  and  causality  of  declining  fertility  and  mortality  rates  in  modernizing  states,  a  large  body  of  econometric  research  has  explored  the  implications  of  Demographic  Transition  Theory  on  the  economic  emergence  of  these  states.  The  Challenge  of  Attaining  the  Demographic  Dividend9  by  James  Gribble  and  Jason  Bremner  notes  that,  due  to  the  asynchronous  occurrence  of  declining  fertility  and  mortality  rates  in  modernizing  states,  an  observable  generational  population  bulge  is  produced  throughout  society.  With  fewer  births  each  year  and  with  an  increasingly  healthy  and  productive  elderly  population,  growth  rates  of  the  countries  working-­‐age  population  exceed  that  of  the  young  and  dependent  population.  As  a  result  the  state  is  afforded  a  20-­‐30  year  window  of  opportunity,  conventionally  known  as  the  “Demographic  Dividend”,  during  which  a  decreased  dependency  ratio  can  stimulate  rapid  economic  growth  when  coupled  with  effective  social  and  economic  policy.  

Demographic  Transitions  and  Economic  Miracles  in  Emerging  Asia10  by  David  Bloom  and  Jeffery  Williamson  provides  some  of  the  most  compelling  evidence  for  the  Demographic  Dividend  Theory.  By  isolating  and  analyzing  the  effects  of  regional  demography  such  as  changes  in  labor  force  participation,  savings  rate,  human  capital  accumulation  and  domestic  demand  in  Asia  from  1965-­‐1990,  Bloom  and  Williamson  suggest  that  up  to  a  third  of  observed  economic  growth  in  the  region  during  this  time  period,  colloquially  known  as  the  East  Asian  Miracle,  was  attributable  to  the  demographic  dividend.  Bloom  and  Williamson  also  note  that  these  changes  were  uniformly  accompanied  by  development  of  the  industry  sector,  

                                                                                                               9 Gribble, James and Jason Bremner. “The Challenge of Attaining the Demographic Dividend.” Prb.org. Population Reference Bureau. November 2012. Web. 10 Bloom, David and Jeffrey Williamson. “Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia.” Nber.org. The National Bureau of Economic Research. Working Paper No. 6268. 1997. Web.

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followed  shortly  thereafter  by  the  service  sector—with  job  opportunities  for  both  concentrated  in  urban  and  peri-­‐urban  environments.  

Considering  the  gendered  impacts  of  demographic  dividend-­‐stimulated  growth,  David  Bloom,  David  Canning,  and  Jaypee  Sevilla  identify  additional  benefits  accrued  by  women  in  modernizing  states  in  The  Demographic  Dividend:  A  New  Perspective  on  the  Economic  Consequences  of  Population  Change11.  Also  using  East  Asia  as  a  case  study,  the  authors  observe  how  reduced  fertility  rates  allowed  women  to  acquire  employment  and  education  to  a  higher  extent—making  the  labor  force  more  productive.  Experiencing  an  observable  increase  of  health  and  productive  capacity,  women  benefitted  from  increased  social  status  and  personal  independence  in  these  states.  In  regards  to  long-­‐term  development,  family  incomes  supplemented  by  newly  employed  women  promoted  the  better  nutrition  of  children—especially  young  girls—essential  to  realizing  their  productive  potential.  

Having  demonstrated  the  potential  for  economy  wide  benefits  for  states  going  through  the  demographic  transition  to  a  modernized  economy,  discussing  research  on  the  less  apparent  but  equally  salient  economic  challenges  imposed  by  the  demographic  dividend  is  an  important  context  for  understanding  the  implications  of  India’s  urbanization  trend.  A  Review  of  Age  Structural  Transition  and  Demographic  Dividend  in  South  Asia:  Opportunities  and  Challenges12  by  Navaneetham  and  Dharmalingam  identifies  asymmetries  in  income  equality,  nutrition,  and  access  to  education  in  India,  Bangladesh,  Pakistan,  Sri  Lanka,  and  Nepal  as  factors  reducing  the  productive  potential  of  the  demographic  dividend.  The  authors  consider  the  subsequent  observed  growth  of  informal  labor  markets  in  South  Asia  as  evidence  of  a  failure  of  government  policy  and  the  private  sector  to  realize  the  potential  of  the  demographic  dividend.    Sustainable  Urbanization  

Nuancing  insight  gleaned  from  research  on  economic  modernization  and  population  dynamics,  exploring  how  emerging  economies—experiencing  rapid  economic  growth  due  to  the  demographic  dividend—have  interfaced  with  the  global  sustainability  regime  is  becoming  increasingly  important  as  concerns  over  anthropogenic  climate  change  effects  increase.  Emblematic  of  these  concerns,  the  term  “Anthropocene,”  first  coined  by  Paul  Crutzen  in  his  2002  paper  Geology  of  mankind13,  has  been  adopted  by  climate  scientists  and  many  policy  makers  as  the  informal  geologic  chronological  term  referring  to  the  era  in  which  human  activities  have  has  a  significant  global  impact  on  Earth’s  ecosystems.  Crutzen  points  towards  the  rapid  growth  in  per  capita  exploitation  of  land,  water,  and  air  resources,  performed  by  25%  of  the  world’s  population  and  concentrated  in  urban  centers,  as  primary  vectors  of  environmental  degradation  and  global  warming.  

                                                                                                               11 Bloom, David, David Canning, and Jaypee Sevilla. “The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change.” Rand.org Rand. 2003. Web. 12 K, Navaneetham and A Dharmalingam. “A Review of Age Structural Transition and Demographic Dividend in South Asia: Opportunities and Challenges.” Proquest.com. Journal of Population Ageing, December 2012. Web. 13 Crutzen, Paul. “Geology of mankind.” Nature.com. Nature. 2002. Web

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Time  has  not  lessened  the  severity  of  this  outlook.  In  its  annual  Compilation  and  Synthesis  Report14,  The  United  Nations  Framework  Convention  on  Climate  Change  2014  Lima  Summit  outlined  the  most  recent  research  on  global  climate  change  vectors  and  impacts.  While  the  report  opens  noting  a  decrease  in  annual  global  emissions  from  19.1  to  17.0  thousand  megatons  of  carbon  dioxide—representing  a  10.6%  decline  in  the  period  from  1990-­‐2012—these  reductions  are  attributed  almost  in  their  entirety  to  decreased  global  economic  activity  due  to  the  global  financial  crisis  and  to  the  mitigation  actions  of  developed  states  in  Western  Europe  and  the  United  States  (known  as  Annex  I  countries).  While  the  report  complements  the  increased  engagement  of  Non-­‐Annex  members,  such  as  Brazil,  India,  and  China  with  subsidiary  UNFCCC  organizations  to  address  climate  change  mitigation,  these  states  are  identified  as  the  primary  sources  of  carbon  emissions  growth.  

This  regional  assessment  is  corroborated  by  case  studies  on  the  localized  impacts  of  climate  change  in  emerging  economies.  These  studies  demonstrate  that  responding  to  the  environmental  consequences  of  climate  change,  especially  in  the  context  of  urbanization,  remains  a  policy  imperative  both  for  regional  governance  in  emerging  economies  and  for  the  global  sustainability  regime.  Utilizing  Bangladesh  in  2006  as  a  case  study,  The  State  of  the  Environment  in  Asia15  by  Awaji  Takehisa  and  Teranishi  Shun’ichi  connects  global  emissions  of  carbon  dioxide—associated  with  economic  development,  urbanization,  and  industrialization—to  the  increased  prevalence  and  intensity  of  climatic  disasters  in  Bangladesh  such  as  cyclones  and  flooding.  The  authors  contend  that,  to  account  for  its  increased  vulnerability  to  anthropogenic  climate  effects,  Bangladesh’s  government  is  burdened  with  substantial  climate  change  risk  mitigation  and  adaption  costs,  such  as  levee  construction  and  hurricane  shelters.  The  Bangladeshi  economy,  dependent  on  vulnerable  farmland,  coastal  cities,  and  biodiversity  driven  tourism,  is  also  clearly  strained  by  its  increased  exposure  to  climate  change.  

This  research  is  supplemented  by  many  other  studies  on  climate  change  vulnerability  and  associated  mitigation  and  adaption  costs  for  the  governments  and  economies  of  emerging  economies.  It  is  clear,  then,  that  climate  change  is  both  associated  with  and  a  threat  to  conventional  trends  of  greenhouse  gas-­‐dependent  economic  development.  Reconciling  the  need  for  growth  in  these  emerging  economies  with  the  global  imperative  of  climate  change  mitigation,  versed  in  understanding  of  the  confluence  of  economic,  societal,  and  environmental  trends,  is  therefore  a  vital  research  frontier.      III.  Demographic  Trends  

Dynamics  of  Indian  population  growth  currently  follow  the  general  expectations  for  modernizing  states  as  outlined  in  the  Demographic  Transition  

                                                                                                               14 “Compilation and synthesis of sixth national communications and first biennial reports from Parties included in Annex I to the Convention.” Unfccc.int. United Nations. 24 November 2014. Web. 15 Awaji, Takehisa and Shun’ichi Teranishi. “The State of Environment in Asia: 2005/2006” Japan Environmental Council. April 7, 2005. Web.

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Theory.  These  trends,  when  coupled  with  India’s  present  lack  of  sufficient  economic  development,  reflect  the  nature  of  urbanization  policy  reform,  such  as  that  outlined  by  Prime  Minister  Narendra  Modi’s  Smart  Cities  Initiative  as  more  of  a  policy  imperative  than  merely  an  election  platform.  In  order  to  establish  targeted  performance  metrics  for  Indian  urbanization  reform  is  it  essential  to  understand  the  composition  and  spatial  orientation  of  India’s  growing  labor  force.  Addressing  these  factors  also  reveals  insight  on  the  efficacy  and  impact  of  hitherto  implemented  policy.  

According  to  World  Bank  data16,  India’s  crude  death  rate  has  remained  low  throughout  the  last  two  and  a  half  decades  while  infant  mortality  rates,  for  children  under  5,  have  dropped  precipitously  from  a  high  in  1990  of  125.9  per  1000  births  to  7.9  as  of  2013  (See  Figure  1).  According  to  the  same  source,  Indian  fertility  rates,  both  for  the  general  population  (See  Figure  2)  and  for  Adolescents  aged  15-­‐19  (See  Figure  3)  have  gradually  declined  in  the  same  time  period.     A  legacy  of  the  gradual  decline  in  birth  rates,  India  has  experienced  robust  population  growth  through  this  period,  adding  approximately  364  million  people  to  its  population  in  two  decades  between  1991  and  201117.  Extending  this  trend  forward,  it  is  projected  that  India’s  population  will  increase  to  1.4  billion  by  2025  from  the  1.2  billion  recorded  in  the  2011  census18.  Meanwhile,  resultant  from  observed  and  sustained  decline  in  total  and  adolescent  fertility  rates  in  India,  the  growth  rate  of  India’s  working-­‐age  population  is  expected  to  exceed  that  of  its  total  population  during  the  first  half  of  the  21st  century.  India’s  future  population  will,  therefore,  bear  a  “bulge”  of  working-­‐age  Indians,  expected  to  increase  from  761  million  to  869  million  from  2011-­‐2020,  representing  nearly  64%  of  India’s  total  population.  (See  Figure  419).  This  represents  both  an  enormous  opportunity  for  economic  growth  and  an  onerous  challenge  for  policy  makers.      Indian  Residential  Geography  

India’s  geographic  population  distribution  has  been  historically  characterized  by  high—but  gradually  declining—rates  of  rural  inhabitation.  Currently,  India’s  population  is  approximately  two  thirds  rural  and  one  third  urban.  Between  2001  and  2011,  Indian  Census  data20  reported  a  growth  of  India’s  rural  population  near  12.2%,  increasing  from  approximately  753  million  to  839  million.  Meanwhile,  India’s  comparatively  small  urban  population  has  grown  rapidly  near  31.8%,  having  increased  from  approximately  288  million  to  382  million  in  the  same  time  period.  When  compared  historically,  these  statistics  represent  an  accelerating  trend  of  urbanization  in  India.  1901  and  1951  Indian  Census  data  reports  nearly  9  and  over  8  out  of  every  10  Indians  residing  in  rural  environments,  respectively.    

With  these  broad  parameters  set,  determining  what  developmental  characteristics  distinguish  India’s  rural  and  urban  populations  reveals  insight  both                                                                                                                  16 “India Data Indicators.” Databank.worldbank.org. The World Bank. April 16th, 2015. Web. 17 “Population of India.” Indiabudget.nic. National Informatics Comission. 2007. Web. 18 "Reaping India's Promised Demographic Dividend--Industry in the Driving Seat." Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (2011): n. pag. Ey.com. Ernst and Young, 2013. Web. 19 ibid 20 “Rural Urban Distribution of Population.” Censusindia.gov. Census of India. 2011. Web.

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onto  the  causality  of  migration  to  and  growth  of  India’s  urban  centers  while  also  highlighting  areas  for  strategic  urbanization  policy  reform.  While  increasing  over  time  in  India’s  rural  and  urban  environments,  Literacy  rates  represent  some  of  the  largest  demographic  imbalances  in  India.  According  to  2011  Indian  Census  data,  rural  literacy  rates  were  68.9%  and  85.0%  in  urban  settings.  Yet  more  remarkable,  Indian  literacy  also  produces  observable  gendered  effects  in  both  rural  and  urban  settings  (See  Figure  5),  with  female  literacy  as  high  as  79.9%  in  urban  environments  and  as  low  as  58.8%  in  rural  areas.  This  data  is  significant  in  that  literacy  is  an  indicator  both  of  basic  educational  attainment  and  of  employability.  It  is  clear  therefore,  that  urban  environments  are  at  worst  associated  with  and  at  best  conducive  to  the  development  of  human  capital.  That  comparative  rates  of  literacy  are  even  more  divergent  for  India’s  female  population  implies  that  an  even  greater  incentive  exists  for  women  to  live  in  urban  environments.  

Complementing  this  narrative,  rates  of  rural  and  urban  poverty  in  India  offer  yet  more  evidence  of  comparative  economic  disadvantage  for  India  rural  population.  World  Bank  data  from  201121  reports  21.9%  of  urban  Indians  and  25.7%  of  rural  Indians  as  at  or  below  the  nationally  determined  poverty  line  of  approximately  US  $1.25  income  per  day.  This  figure  is  based  as  a  metric  for  food  security—representing  a  minimum  capital  expenditure  for  an  individual  to  survive.  While  rural  and  urban  poverty  have  both  declined  in  India—41.8%  and  37.2%  in  2004  respectively—the  persistence  of  disparity  in  rates  between  the  geographic  regions  implies  a  sustained  incentive  for  rural-­‐to-­‐urban  migration.    Indian  Economic  Output  &  Labor  Force  Composition  

Broadly  separated  into  three  sectors  of  agriculture,  industry,  and  services,  data  on  India’s  sectorial  economic  output  and  labor  force  composition  demonstrate  the  unmet  need  for  efficiently  delivered  urbanization  solutions  both  for  households  and  the  macro-­‐economy.  2011  data  from  India’s  National  Planning  Commission  reports  52%  of  India’s  working  population  employed  in  agriculture,  34%  in  services,  and  14%  in  industry  (See  Figure  6).  These  findings  are  emblematic  of  a  gradual  but  sustained  convergence  of  Indian  labor  force  participation  rates  between  sectors  over  time  (See  Figure  7).    

 Agriculture  

As  the  largest  proportional  employer  of  India’s  workforce,  the  agricultural  sector  remains  an  essential  component  of  India’s  trajectory  for  socio-­‐economic  development.  Research  on  productivity  suggests  that,  throughout  the  20th  century,  sustained  prioritization  by  policy  makers  on  the  agricultural  sector  has  dramatically  improved  average  crop  yields  relative  to  land  use  for  practically  all-­‐agricultural  products22.  This  prioritization  has  come  in  the  form  of  both  federal  and  state  level  investment  in  irrigation,  fertilizers,  and  pesticides  technology  coupled  with  subsidized  credit  lines  for  Indian  farmers.  

                                                                                                               21 “Rural poverty headcount ratio at national poverty lines (% of rural population).” Data.worldbank.org. The World Bank. 2014. Web. 22 Datt, Ruddar and K.P.M. Sundharar. “Indian Economy.” S. Chand, University of Michigan. 1976. Web

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Despite  systemic  agricultural  investment  and  implementation  of  pro-­‐agricultural  policy,  India’s  agricultural  sector  lags  far  behind  its  true  productive  potential—producing  only  14%  of  total  GDP  (See  Figure  8).  A  2012  World  Bank  report  that,  “nearly  three-­‐quarters  of  India’s  families  depend  on  rural  incomes  […]  the  majority  of  India’s  poor  (some  770  million  or  about  70  percent)  are  found  in  rural  areas23.”  According  to  the  report,  the  livelihoods  of  these  populations  are  challenged  by  agricultural  subsidy  distortions,  overregulation  of  farmer  activity,  insufficient  infrastructure,  convoluted  value  chains,  and  vulnerability  to  climate  change.  While  the  nuanced  analysis  of  agricultural  policy  reform  in  India  is  beyond  the  scope  of  this  paper,  this  assessment  serves  as  evidence  that  India’s  rural  areas  are  failing  to  deliver  sufficient  economic  development  to  its  poor  inhabitants,  subsequently  promoting  their  migration  to  urban  centers  in  search  of  more  gainful  employment.    Services  

Challenging  the  prevailing  conventions  of  economic  development  and  modernization  outlined  in  the  Demographic  Dividend  Theory,  India’s  services  sector  has  emerged  over  the  last  30  years  as  the  primary  driver  of  economic  growth,  accounting  for  some  59%  of  GDP  and  34%  of  labor  force  participation,  prior  to  India’s  industrial  sector  (See  Figure  9).  India’s  services  sector  growth  has  also  historically  outpaced  industry  and  agriculture,  with  growth  of  services-­‐sector  GDP  exceeding  that  of  overall  GDP  since  200124.  

The  rapid  and  unprecedented  growth  of  India’s  services  sector  has  been  linked  through  research  to  the  development  of  Indian  urban  centers  in  the  late  20th  century.  The  2012  report,  Services  Sector  in  India:  Trends,  Issues,  and  Way  Forward  by  Arpita  Mukherjee  notes  that  liberalization  of  economic  policy  and  the  removal  of  FDI  restrictions  in  the  1990s  in  India  was  associated  with  increased  domestic  and  foreign  demand  for  highly-­‐skilled  and  low-­‐cost  labor  characteristic  of  the  services  industry25.  This  trend  created  a  feedback  loop—concentrated  particularly  in  cities—in  which  increased  income  allowed  for  greater  domestic  discretionary  spending,  like  educational  attainment,  which  in  turn  increased  the  value,  and  associated  income,  of  domestically  provided  labor.    Industry     Unarguably  the  most  important  frontier  for  India’s  continued  economic  emergence,  the  industry  sector  represents  a  grossly  underdeveloped  source  of  potential  growth  for  an  Indian  economy  struggling  to  provide  enough  jobs.  Employing  some  14%  of  India’s  total  workforce  and  providing  27%  of  GDP,  the  productive  potential  of  this  sector  has  historically  been  hampered  by  systemic  inefficiencies.  The  2012  McKinsey  Global  Institute  synthesis  report,  “Fulfilling  the  

                                                                                                               23 “India: Issues and Priorities for Agriculture.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. May 17, 2012. Web. 24 “Service Sector in India.” Ibef.org. India Brand Equity Foundation. February, 2015. Web. 25 “Mukherjee, Arpita. “Services Sector in India: Trends, Issues, and Way Forward. Ipec.gspia.pitt.edu. May 2012. Web.

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promise  of  India’s  manufacturing  sector26,”  identifies—among  other  factors—the  inability  of  manufacturers  to  aggregate  land  and  operate  in  close  proximity,  an  urgent  and  nationwide  lack  of  sufficient  infrastructure,  and  the  insufficient  supply  of  skilled  labor  as  the  main  inhibitors  to  growth.  

Subject  to  the  same  late  20th  century  reforms  of  economic  policy  and  investment  liberalization,  India’s  industry  sector  did  not  experience  the  same  GDP  and  labor  force  participation  growth  as  was  seen  in  the  services  sector.  This  stagnation  has  been  attributed  to  increased  competition  in  manufacturing  from  China  and  associated  pressure  towards  technological  innovation  and  cost  reduction,  reducing  employment  generation  in  favor  of  the  implementation  of  highly  mechanized  processes27.  Conveniently,  many  solutions  to  these  issues  are  complementary  and  natural  outcomes  resultant  from  needed  urbanization  policy  reform.  Among  other  objectives,  Narendra  Modi’s  Smart  Cities  Initiative  seeks  to  promote  India’s  industrial  competitiveness  by  providing  urban  environments  in  which  a  versatile  and  skilled  labor  pool  as  well  as  a  modernized  industrial  sector  can  be  developed.    IV.  Environmental  Trends     Complicating  the  narrative  of  Indian  urban  development  substantially,  India’s  increasingly  prominent  role  as  a  contributor  towards  anthropogenic  climate  change  through  fossil-­‐fuel  dependent  industrial  processes  is  both  closely  associated  with  and  perhaps  the  largest  threat  towards  sustained  economic  growth  and  societal  well-­‐being  in  India.  Severing  the  connection  between  greenhouse  gas  emissions  and  economic  development  has  become  a  priority  not  only  for  India,  but  indeed  for  the  global  sustainability  regime.  COP  21  of  the  UNFCCC,  to  be  held  in  Paris  in  December  of  2015,  has  prioritized  the  submission  of  “Intended  Nationally  Determined  Contributions”  (INDCs)  on  green  house  gas  (GHGs)  emissions  reduction  measures.  Aggregated,  these  commitments  will,  ideally,  establish  a  legally  binding  and  global  agreement  on  emissions  reductions—limiting  global  temperature  rise  to  within  2  degrees  Celsius  above  pre-­‐industrial  levels.  

The  climate  change  mitigation  actions  and  commitments  of  India,  along  with  China,  Brazil,  and  other  emerging  economies  have  become  central  to  the  agenda  of  the  UNFCCC  as  the  efficiency  through  which  they  achieve  economic  growth  is  increasingly  scrutinized.  While  comparatively  contributing  little  to  annual  total  global  Carbon  Dioxide  emissions  among  G20  countries  (See  Figure  10,  India  highlighted  in  gold),  its  carbon  intensity—the  average  rate  at  which  India’s  economy  converts  a  metric  ton  of  carbon  dioxide  to  a  thousand  US  dollars  of  GDP—is  one  of  the  worst  in  the  worlds  largest  economies  (See  Figure  11,  India  highlighted  in  gold).  

Inefficiencies  in  the  economic  delivery  of  Indian  urbanization  have  more  often  than  not  have  come  coupled  with  environmental  inefficiencies.  As  of  2013,  the  IEA  CO2  Emissions  from  Fuel  Combustion  Report  indicates  that  India’s  contribution  of  5%  of  global  CO2  emissions  shows  a  clear  and  rapid  increasing  trend,  likely  to  

                                                                                                               26 Dhawan, Rajat, Gautam Swaroop, and Adil Zainulbhai. “Fulfilling the promise of India’s manufacturing sector.” Mckinsey.com. McKinsey Global Institute. March 2012. Web. 27 “Economy of India.” Binet-repository.com. November 2013. Web.

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account  for  10%  of  global  emissions  by  203528.  Driving  this  rapid  growth,  India  is  dependent  on  coal,  oil,  and  natural  gas  for  73%  of  its  total  energy  consumption.     This  dependence  produced  both  localized  and  global  pollutant  effects.  The  book  Urban  Transport  Environment  and  Equity:  The  Case  for  Developing  Countries  by  Eduardo  Vasconcellos  notes  that  poorer  groups  within  developing  countries,  often  dependent  on  walking  or  bicycling  to  work,  are  disproportionately  affected  by  roadside  air  pollution  from  automobile  gasoline  combustion.  These  effects,  of  course,  are  concentrated  in  urban  high-­‐density  settings29.  This  pollution  also  exacts  a  substantial  economic  cost,  estimated  to  have  cost  US  $500  billion  in  India  in  2010  alone30.  

Commissioned  by  the  World  Bank  to  assess  the  sectorial  impacts  of  temperature  increase  scenarios  in  India  ranging  from  2°-­‐4°  Celsius,  the  Potsdam  Institute  for  Climate  Impact  Research  and  Climate  Analytics  outlines  a  grim  future  for  India’s  urban,  peri-­‐urban,  and  rural  environments  given  insufficient  mitigation  action  and  continuation  of  current  trends  of  consumption.  Their  2013  report,  4°  Turn  Down  the  Heat:  Climate  Extremes,  Regional  Impacts,  and  the  Case  for  Resilience31,  identifies  a  host  of  anthropogenic  climate  effects  in  the  subcontinent  such  as  changing  rainfall  patterns,  air  and  water  pollution,  sea  level  rise,  urban  heat-­‐islands  (UHI),  drought,  and  glacier  melt.  Combined  these  factors  represent  an  imminent  threat  to  the  security  of  India’s  agriculture  and  food  production,  energy  and  water  access,  and  health  resources.  

 V.  India’s  Infrastructure  Bottlenecks  &  Historic  Urban  Development  Framework     Having  established  the  broad  dynamics  underlying  Indian  labor  force  participation  and  economic  growth  trends,  exploring  under  what  conditions  India’s  promised  demographic  dividend  can  be  delivered  is  essential  to  understanding  the  feasibility  of  proposed  reform.  Meeting  this  demand,  a  large  and  growing  body  of  research  conducted  by  a  range  of  government,  private,  and  civil-­‐society  institutions  has  assessed  different  facets  of  India’s  historic  urban  development  framework  through  the  context  of  projected  rapid  urbanization  growth  and  climate  change.  Reconciling  these  different  narratives  reveals  insight  on  how  India’s  need  for  economic  growth,  increased  urban  space,  and  sustainability  may  be  equitably  delivered  through  centralized  policy  reform.    Need  for  Infrastructure  

                                                                                                               28 “CO2 Emissions From Fuel Combustion.” Iea.org. International Energy Agency, 2013. Web. 29 “Vasconcellos, Eduardo. “Urban Transport Envrionment and Equity: The Case for Developing Countries.” Earthscan Publications, 2001. Web. 30 V., V. "India 2014 Economic Servey." (n.d.): n. pag. Oecd.org. Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, 2014. Web. 31 Colet, Arthur. "Turn down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience." The Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics (n.d.): n. pag. The World Bank, 2014. Web.

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  The  2010  McKinsey  Global  Institute  synthesis  report,  India’s  urban  awakening:  Building  inclusive  cities,  sustaining  economic  growth32,  projects  that  India’s  urban  population  is  set  to  increase  from  340  million  in  2008  to  590  million  by  2030.  As  outlined  earlier,  factors  contributing  to  this  trend  include  greater  access  to  education,  lower  rates  of  poverty,  agricultural  sector  disincentives,  and  opportunities  for  urban-­‐based  employment  in  the  services  and  industry  sectors.  The  report  estimates  that,  to  meet  demand  for  urban  space,  India’s  government  will  need  to  partially  finance  and  oversee  the  creation  of  “between  700  –  900  million  square  meters  of  residential  and  commercial  space  per  year  through  2030.”  Connecting  these  spaces,  India’s  cities  must  also  construct  350  –  400  kilometers  of  metros  and  subways  as  well  as  19,000  –  25,000  kilometers  of  road  lanes  annually.  India’s  Historic  Urban  Development  Framework     Financing  the  creation  of  this  infrastructure  is  projected  to  be  exorbitantly  expensive—costing  approximately  US  $1.2  trillion  in  capital  expenditure  alone  through  203033.  These  costs  have  been  made  more  onerous,  however,  through  the  historic  implementation  of  federal  policy,  preventing  effective  economic  empowerment  and  sustainability  of  its  cities.  Factors  promoting  this  dynamic  include  underinvestment  in  residential,  commercial,  and  transit  infrastructure,  restrictive  land  use  policy,  spatial  asymmetry  in  access  to  municipal  services,  and  opaque  municipal  governance.     Before  considering  the  growth  implications  of  India’s  current  efforts  towards  urban  development,  it  is  important  to  note  that,  in  terms  of  per-­‐capita  investment,  India’s  cities  lags  well  behind  other  globalized  cities  upon  which  much  of  proposed  policy  reform  is  modeled.  For  example,  as  of  2010  Indian  per-­‐capita  capital  expenditure  on  urban  environments  was  US  $17,  compared  to  US  $116  in  China’s  largest  cities  and  US  $292  in  New  York34.  The  implications  of  this  lack  of  federally  sourced  infrastructure  investment  are  far  reaching.     In  regards  to  electricity  access,  India’s  cities  remains  woefully  under  connected  to  reliable  sources  of  power.  Due  to  a  lack  of  federal  energy  infrastructure  investment  nearly  20%  of  India’s  urban  and  peri-­‐urban  population,  some  75  million,  were  classified  as  “energy  impoverished35”  in  2010,  lacking  access  to  energy  sources  commensurate  with  their  demonstrated  need.  Concerning  urban  water  sources,  while  more  than  90%  of  India’s  urban  population  has  access  to  drinking  water,  less  than  50%  of  these  sources  are  piped  and  no  Indian  cities  receive  piped  water  24/736.  Among  these  water  sources,  frequent  raw  sewage  and  industrial  wastewater  overflow  in  receiving  bodies  and  groundwater  sources  is  a  health  threat  both  to  urban  communities  and  to  the  aquatic  biodiversity  upon  which  many  Indians  depend.    

                                                                                                               32 Schanka, Shirish. "India's Urban Awakening: Building Inclusive Cities, Sustaining Economic Growth.". McKinsey Global Institute, Apr. 2010. Web. 33 ibid 34 ibid 35 “Khandker, Shahidur. “Energy Poverty in Rural and Urban India: Are the Energy Poor also Income Poor?” worldbank.org. Development Research Group, Agriculture and Rural Development Team. November 2010. Web. 36 “Urban Water Supply in India.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. July 4, 2011. Web.

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Representing  one  of  the  largest  challenges  for  increased  urbanization  in  India,  pricing  for  municipal  services  in  India’s  cities  act  as  a  regressive  tax,  conventionally  placing  the  greatest  burden  on  their  poorest  residents  and  promoting  unauthorized  connections  to  energy,  water,  and  wastewater  networks.  For  example,  a  2013  World  Bank  study  on  electricity  tariffs  reported  that  the  “average  household  consuming  less  than  30kWh  a  month  pays  more  per  unit  of  electricity  than  even  the  average  household  consuming  more  than  300kWh  a  month37.”  This  trend  is  self-­‐perpetuating  in  that  unauthorized  connections  reduce  the  ability  of  utility  providers  to  recover  costs  and  invest  in  system  maintenance—leading  to  yet  higher  costs  for  system  connection.     India’s  history  of  rigid  land-­‐use  policy  also  represents  a  central  inhibitor  to  severely  needed  urban  development.  Based  off  McKinsey  Global  Institute’s  2013  assessment  of  expected  urban  population  growth  and  needed  urban-­‐spatial  extension,  it  is  clear  that  a  comprehensive  urban  growth  policy  framework  must  outline  mechanisms  to  both  increase  the  population  density  of  existing  urban  areas  and  also  to  acquire  neighboring  land.  The  2013  World  Bank  Report,  Urbanization  beyond  Municipal  Boundaries38,  notes  that  India  lacks  any  independent  institution  through  which  to  ensure  the  proper  and  transparent  function  of  land-­‐markets,  instead  governed  under  antiquated  laws  with  many  opportunities  for  corruption  and  collusion.     Associated  with  long  standing  and  deeply  rooted  concerns  over  infrastructure  quality  in  modernizing  states,  restrictive  Floor  Space  Ratio  (FSI)  requirements  in  India’s  urban  periphery  are  a  major  growth  inhibitor.  Because  of  these  restrictions,  high-­‐density  urban  development  in  India  is  characterized  by  far  lower  rates  of  horizontal  expansion  than  in  developed  states39,  even  though  doing  would  use  land  more  efficiently,  utilizing  on  economies  of  scale  to  reduce  operational  costs  per  unit  of  land.  Functionally  this  has  meant  that  high  value  urban  development  in  Indian  cities  is  concentrated  in  the  core—in  which  there  are  comparatively  lax  urban  density  requirements.  Meanwhile,  rigid  FSI  regulation  on  the  urban  periphery,  combined  with  high  rates  of  rural  to  urban  migration,  leads  to  the  chaotic  and  unplanned  growth  of  slums,  often  lacking  any  access  to  the  electricity  or  water  grid.  This  trend  has  observable  welfare  impacts.  For  example,  in  Bangalore,  FSI-­‐induced  sprawl  causes  average  welfare  losses  of  4.5  percent  to  household  incomes  owing  to  higher  commuting  costs40.  Again  these  effects  are  regressive  in  that  they  disproportionately  punish  residents  on  the  urban  periphery,  most  frequently  poor  and  formerly  rural  migrants  seeking  employment.    

Given  the  growing  fragmentation  and  sprawl  of  India’s  largest  cities,  providing  transit  infrastructure  and  efficient  modes  of  public  transportation  has  become  increasingly  important  to  facilitating  urban  commerce.  It  is  clear  that  compact  and  public  transport-­‐oriented  urban  development  deliver  economic  and                                                                                                                  37 Pargal, Sheoli and Sudeshna Ghosh Banerjee. “More Power to India: The Challenge of Electricity Distribution.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. 2014. Web. 38 “Urbanization beyond Municipal Boundaries: Nurturing Metropolitan Economies and Connecting Peri-Urban Areas in India.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. 2013. Web. 39 ibid 40 ibid

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environmental  benefits  compared  to  the  increasingly  commonplace  norm  of  sprawling  private  car-­‐dependent  accessibility  models.  Despite  these  incentives,  India’s  federal  and  urban  governance  bodies  have  approved  the  unrestricted  growth  of  urban  motorization,  with  some  research  suggesting  that  India’s  urban  vehicle  fleet  growth  exceeds  significant  urban  population  growth,  resulting  in  urban  commutes  30  percent  slower  than  in  lesser-­‐populated  towns41.  

Growth  of  urban  private  car  ownership  has  also  exacerbated  India’s  urban  transit  infrastructural  shortcomings.  Due  to  excessively  high  prices  and  asymmetrical  service  to  the  urban  periphery,  India’s  urban  public  transport  system  is  plagued  by  low-­‐leveled  ridership.  These  transit  costs  are  not  only  imposed  on  citizens,  but  also  on  firms.  Research  from  the  World  Bank  in  2013  suggests  that  companies  shipping  products  into  and  out  from  India’s  urban  centers  face  freight  costs  twice  the  national  average  and  more  than  five  times  that  as  in  the  United  States42.  These  costs  have  profound  implications  on  the  viability  of  India’s  industrial  sector,  as  the  sale  of  manufactured  products  almost  always  has  associated  freight  transport  costs.    

Underlying  this  litany  of  urban  infrastructural,  developmental  policy,  and  municipal  service  shortcomings,  the  opacity  through  which  urban  policy  is  formulated—operating  within  India’s  byzantine  parliamentary  structure—limits  the  equity  and  efficacy  of  delivered  urban  development  solutions.  For  example,  overlapping  jurisdiction  for  regulation  and  development  of  Indian  urban  municipal  resources  has  prevented  the  implementation  of  harmonized  business  and  environmental  regulations,  arrangements  for  utility  networking  between  cities,  and  connective  transit  infrastructure43.  Transparency  therefore  remains  a  necessary  complement  to  any  re-­‐envisioning  of  Indian  urban  development.  

With  this  historical  and  environmental  context  in  mind  becomes  clear  that  India’s  cities  are  already  struggling  to  provide  a  basic  quality  of  life  to  the  majority  of  its  inhabitants,  having  underinvested  in  urban  infrastructure  and  services.  India’s  new  working  age  population  will  need  substantially  more  jobs,  housing,  transit  and  utility  services,  and  connectivity  than  currently  available  in  India’s  urban  or  rural  environments.  Therefore,  meeting  the  demands  of  India’s  rapidly  growing  working  age  population  will  require  a  re-­‐envisioning  and  expansion  of  its  urban  infrastructure.    

 VI.  Content  of  the  Smart  Cities  Initiative      Observing  the  significant  socio-­‐economic  and  environmental  costs  imposed  upon  Indian  society  due  to  insufficient,  inequitable,  and  unsustainable  urban  development  and  recognizing  the  enormous  potential  for  growth  promised  under  India’s  demographic  dividend,  it  is  clear  that  India  needs  a  sweeping  re-­‐envisioning  of  urban  development  policy.  Establishing  salient  linkages  between  urban  design,                                                                                                                  41 Badami, Madhav and M. Haider. “An Analysis of Public Bus Transit Performance in Indian Cities.” Academica.edu. Science Direct. 2007. Web. 42 “Urbanization beyond Municipal Boundaries: Nurturing Metropolitan Economies and Connecting Peri-Urban Areas in India.” Worldbank.org. The World Bank. 2013. Web. 43 Rao, Nirmala. “Reshaping City Governance: London, Mumbai, Kolkata, Hyderabad.” Routledge Contemporary South Asia Series. 2015. Web.

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economic  benefit  across  strata  of  Indian  society,  and  environmental  sustainability  will  be  essential  to  the  feasibility  of  such  a  model.    

Outlining,  arguably,  the  most  ambitious  urban  development  project  of  the  21st  century,  Narendra  Modi’s  Smart  Cities  Initiative44  benchmarks  the  creation  of  100  new  “smart”  cities—with  modernized  and  environmentally  sustainable  transport,  housing,  utility,  and  connectivity  services.  This  expansive  policy  framework  has  been  announced  to  meet  the  demand  for  increased  urbanization  in  India  in  the  context  of  climate  change.  

Announced  in  2014  during  his  campaign  for  Prime  Minister,  Narendra  Modi’s  Smart  Cities  Initiative  was  initially  released  as  a  framework  of  performance  metrics45,  identifying  urban  economic  drivers  and  outlining  a  strategy  for  the  development  of  equitable  infrastructure  solutions.  Among  these  metrics  are  the  24/7  provision  of  utility  services  such  as  electricity,  water,  and  waste  water  treatment,  expansion  and  reform  of  public  transit  systems  to  better  serve  urban  poor,  reform  of  land  use  policy,  expansion  of  Wi-­‐Fi  and  telephone  connectivity  networks,  provision  of  health  care  and  education  services,  and  the  implementation  wherever  possible  of  green  technology  and  renewable  energy  solutions.    

Importantly,  these  benchmarks  were  coupled  with  the  release  of  a  hierarchal  financing  strategy46,  outlining  federal  allocation  commitments  and  expectations  for  private  sector  participation  to  meet  the  US  $1.2  trillion  by  2025  capital  expenditure  estimate.  According  to  this  document,  private  sector  participation,  both  through  Public-­‐Private  Partnerships  as  well  as  through  private  investment,  should  account  for  40%  of  all  capital  expenditures.  This  would  then  be  coupled  by  federal  government  allocation  of  up  to  40%  of  required  funding  through  Viability  Gap  Financing47  (VGF)  over  the  next  20  years.  VGF  in  particular  was  included  to  target  private  sector  sustainability  ventures  lacking  the  demonstrable  credit  worthiness  to  acquire  financing  on  the  open  capital  market.  To  meet  the  remaining  20%  of  associated  costs  for  the  Initiative,  Urban  Local  Bodies  (ULBs)—or  municipal  governments—were  expected  to  raise  funding  for  local  urban  development  initiatives  through  the  sale  of  undeveloped  and  state  held  land  to  the  private  sector  for  development.  

Necessary  policy  complements  to  this  financing  strategy  have  also  been  outlined  in  the  hierarchal  financing  strategy.  Among  these  recommendations,  betterment  of  land  use  policy  (through  relaxation  of  FSI  regulation)  to  take  advantage  of  higher  property  prices,  implementation  of  full  cost  recovery  tariff  structures  for  municipal  services,  provision  of  SCI  consultation  opportunities  to  promote  transparency,  and  increased  interface  of  Indian  state-­‐level  authorities  with  international  financing  bodies  such  as  the  United  States  and  the  UNFCCC  Green  

                                                                                                               44 “Smart Cities Initiative.” Indiasmartcities.in. Ministry of Urban Development. 2014. Web. 45 Arora, Swapnil. "Benchmarks for Smart Cities." (n.d.): n. pag. Indiansmartcities.in. Ministry of Urban Development, 2014. Web. 46 “Draft Concept Note on Smart City Scheme.” Indiasmartcities.in. Ministry of Urban Development. March 2014. Web. 47 "Viability Gap Funding (VGF)." Arthapedia.in. India Economic Service, 2014. Web.

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Climate  Fund48  hold  particular  promise  in  addressing  systemic  roadblocks  to  equitable  urban  development  in  India.    VII.  Progress  and  Criticisms  of  the  Smart  Cities  Initiative  Consultations  and  Forums     Representing  one  of  the  more  notable  successes  of  the  initiative  so  far,  the  Modi  administration  has  facilitated  a  series  of  consultations  and  forums  for  community  insight  on  policy  implementation.  These  consultations  have  been  held  to  identify  parameters  like  infrastructure,  citizen-­‐centric  services,  and  sustainability  to  be  considered  in  policy  making49.  So  far,  the  SCI  has  opened  a  number  of  online  forums  on  different  components  of  the  initiative,  where  individuals  can  express  their  opinions50.  Modi  also  began,  as  of  December  2014,  hosting  consultations  with  high-­‐ranking  state  and  federal  officials  on  the  SCI51.     While  representing  important  progress,  these  consultations  and  forums—thus  far—represent  a  policy  failure.  The  online  forum  series  has  failed  to  engender  large-­‐scale  community  based  discussion  on  components  of  the  initiative  while  the  more  substantive  series  of  consultations  have  not  been  made  available  for  public  attendance.  Run  under  India’s  Ministry  of  Urban  Development,  these  consultations  have  not  even  equitably  involved  state-­‐level  representatives,  inviting  only  selected  state  level  authorities.    Domestic  Sustainability  Investments     Announced  to  set  the  tone  for  private  sector  involvement  in  the  SCI,  the  Modi  administration  has  set  the  ambitious  target  to  add  100  GW  total  renewable  energy  capacity  by  2022  to  fuel  India’s  new  cities—representing  3  times  the  amount  currently  available52.    To  catalyze  investment,  India’s  largest  power  generation  firm,  NTPC,  announced  in  2015  its  commitment  to  invest  US  $10  billion  in  renewable  energy  projects  through  2020  in  order  to  develop  10  GW  of  energy  capacity53.  The  State  Bank  of  India  (SBI)  has  also  committed  US  $12.5  billion  in  debt  funding  to  renewable  energy  projects  over  the  next  few  years54.     While  these  commitments  should  be  lauded  for  their  ambitiousness  and  scale,  the  unfortunate  truth  of  these  announcements  is  that  they  are  not  binding,  representing  more  a  conviction  of  the  Modi  administration.  While  these  investments  should  not  be  taken  lightly,  and  have  in  fact  begun  to  be  utilized  in  development  of  

                                                                                                               48 "Green Climate Fund." Unfccc.int. The United Nations, 2014. Web. 49 R, Smitri. "Modi Wants Parameters Identified for Smart Cities." Thehindu.com. The Hindu Times, 30 Dec. 2014. Web. 50 “Smart Cities Initiative.” Indiasmartcities.in. Ministry of Urban Development. 2014. Web. 51 “PM begins intensive consultations on Smart City Initiative.” Narendramodi.in. 29 December, 2014. Web. 52 Mattai, Smitti. "India Plans Association Of Top 50 Solar Power Nations." CleanTechnica, 24 Feb. 2015. Web. 53 Mattai, Smiti. "India’s NTPC To Invest $10 Billion In Renewable Energy Projects." CleanTechnica, 23 Feb. 2015. Web. 54 Mattai, Smitti. "India's Largest Bank Commits $12.5 Billion For Renewable Energy Funding." CleanTechnica, 19 Feb. 2015. Web.

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the  Delhi-­‐Mumbai  Industrial  Corridor.  It  is  unlikely  that  they  will  be  delivered  in  their  entirety.    Delhi-­‐Mumbai  Corridor     India  has  begun  formally  seeking  bids  for  the  construction  of  core  infrastructure  in  the  Delhi-­‐Mumbai  corridor.  As  a  model  project  of  the  SCI,  these  investments  will  be  directed  towards  the  construction  of  an  expansive  road  network,  creation  of  utility  services,  administrative  buildings,  and  waste-­‐water  treatment  plants55  in  and  around  the  eagerly  anticipated  proposed  Gujarat-­‐Dholera  International  Finance  Tech-­‐City56.    

These  infrastructure  investments  at  face  value  represent  an  important  first  step  towards  reconciling  the  need  for  economic  growth  and  urbanization  with  sustainability.  However,  local  opposition  to  the  Delhi-­‐Mumbai  corridor  has  already  gained  traction,  with  local  farmer  advocacy  groups  organizing  tractor  rallies  against  the  forcible  acquisition  of  the  local  municipal  government  of  farmer  held  land  to  then  be  sold  as  ULBs  to  the  federally  contracted  property  developers57.     Concerns  also  remain  over  to  ability  of  India’s  domestic  corporate  and  banking  sectors  to  effectively  manage  development  projects  under  the  SCI.  The  2014  GMT  Research  Report,  Evaluating  India:  Rotten  to  the  Core58,  notes  that  Indian  banks  and  corporate  bodies  have  historically  flattered  their  outlook  to  investors  by  acquiring  cheap  foreign  funding  and  by  obfuscating  data  on  expenditure  and  losses.  As  a  result  there  are  fears  that  funding  for  the  SCI  could  end  up  in  the  hands  of  India’s  overleveraged  and  incompetent  corporate  and  banking  sectors,  and  therefore  should  not  be  trusted.       This  case  study  also  demonstrates  a  failing  of  the  SCI  in  that  local  municipal  government  was  not  adequately  informed  of  planned  regional  development.  Therefore  the  local  community  was  not  given  a  say  of  SCI  fund  allocation,  effectively  excluded  from  the  consultation  process.  These  concerns  are  perhaps  more  emblematic  of  the  greater  fear  that  the  Smart  Cities  Initiative  is  an  example  of  policy-­‐need  mismatch.  India’s  growing  urban  population  is  primarily  driven  by  migration  from  rural  areas  to  the  periphery  of  cities.  Already  on  the  socio-­‐economic  fringes  of  society  it  seems  as  though  these  groups  could  be  better  served  by  policy  promoting  affordable  housing,  utilities,  and  employment  opportunities  as  opposed  to  Wi-­‐Fi  connectivity  and  internet  access.    VIII.  Policy  Reform  Recommendations  and  Conclusion      Faced  with  immense  potential  for—and  burden  of—directing  economic  growth,  India  is  a  contemporary  oddity.  No  other  nation  currently  retains  such  a  radically  evolving  internal  demographic  of  such  global  economic  importance  with  a                                                                                                                  55 Seth, Dilasha. “Smart Cities: Gujarat’s Dholera zone sets pace for the flagship programme in new year.” Economictimes.indiatimes.com. 5 January, 2015. Web. 56 “Gujarat International Finance Tec-City.” Giftgujarat.in. 2011. Web. 57 "Farmers’ Tractor Rally from Vithlapur to Gandhinagar against the Mandal-Becharaji SIR on as Planned." Bilkulonline.com. Bilkul, 2014. Web. 58 Tulloch, Gillem “Evaluating India: Rottten to the Core.” Gmtresearch.com. GMT Research. 25 June 2014. Web.

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governance  framework  through  which  to  pursue  policy  reform  democratically.  While  migration  to  and  growth  of  India’s  urban  centers  represent  an  urgent  policy  reform  imperative,  doing  so  without  consideration  of  its  quickly  receding  environmental  heritage  would  be  just  as  much  a  failure.  Prime  Minister  Narendra  Modi,  therefore,  has  outlined  an  ambitious  development  framework  to  reconcile  the  demand  for  urbanization  with  sustainability  through  the  Smart  Cities  Initiative.  While  some  of  its  associated  policy  reform  has  fallen  short  it  is  important  to  note  that  the  SCI  is  still  in  its  early  stages.  The  Modi  administration  can  take  valuable  lessons  from  these  experiences.     Even  though  they  have  so  far  failed  to  engender  systemic  and  community  based  involvement  in  the  SCI,  implementation  of  consultations  and  forums  sets  an  important  precedent  for  increasing  stakeholder  buy-­‐in  and  investor  follow  through  for  subsequent  projects  in  the  initiative  as  they  can  be  made  integral  contributors  of  urbanization  solutions.  Balancing  the  need  for  feedback  with  organizational  strength,  improving  the  transparency  through  which  urbanization  solutions  are  reached  can  best  be  achieved  by  the  gradual  extension  of  consultations  and  forums  from  only  government  officials  to  involve  proven  stakeholders  of  the  community  to  participate.  In  this  way,  information  on  welfare  altering  policy  can  be  quickly  disseminated  and  communicated  throughout  the  community  without  having  to  organize  costly  and  time-­‐inefficient  public  debates.  Coordinating  these  forums  and  consultations  with  other  state  level  governing  bodies  is  another  essential  extension  of  transparency  reform  in  the  SCI.  Doing  so  will  provide  an  opportunity  for  discussion  on  and  potential  implementation  of  regionally  connected  systems  of  energy  efficient  municipal  service  provisioning  and  transport  infrastructure.  

Supplementary  to  this  expanded  commitment  to  public  consultation,  the  Modi  administration  must  back  up  its  investment  commitments  with  action  on  the  ground  to  legitimize  their  heavy-­‐handedness  on  cultural  opposition  like  that  seen  in  Gujarat-­‐Dholera.  In  fact,  delivering  on  community  benefitting  and  equitably  delivered  investments,  such  as  development  of  utility  services,  prior  to  acquisition  of  municipality  held  land  could  demonstrate  the  commitment  of  the  federal  government  to  equitable  urban  reform.  Furthermore,  by  targeting  policy  reform  on  that  most  beneficial  to  poor  communities,  such  as  Land  Policy  and  Urban  Density  Management  Reform  (Vertical  expansion  laws)  in  urban  peripheries,  India’s  federal  government  can  promote  secure  residency  for  the  urban  poor,  associated  with  greater  educational  attainment  and  employment  opportunities.    

In  loosening  these  restrictions,  however,  India’s  federal  government  must  be  cognizant  of  the  increased  risk  for  domestic  corporate  and  banking  sector  mismanagement.  The  Modi  administration  could  address  this  issue  at  its  core  through  implementation  of  corporate  and  banking  stringency  reform.  By  overseeing  the  repair  and  stringent  evaluation  of  corporate  balance  sheets  through  effective  regulators,  the  Modi  administration  can  force  companies  to  confront  delivered  system  inefficiencies  and  make  them  subject  to  enforceable  regulation.  Banking  stringency  similarly  can  force  banks  to  acknowledge  non  or  underperforming  loans  and  to  raise  capital.  These  steps,  well  within  the  purview  of  Modi’s  administration,  could  discipline  the  corporate  and  banking  sectors—promoting  informed  investment,  transparency,  and  service  performance.  

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Lacking  expanded  formalized  commitment  to  emissions  reductions,  enforcing  the  sustainability  related  components  of  the  SCI  is  essential  to  demonstrating  India’s  commitment  to  meaningful  participation  in  the  global  sustainability  regime.  This  notion  is  especially  significant  given  India’s  rapid  emergence  as  a  primary  contributor  to  global  warming.  Accomplished  by  liberalization  of  vertical  density  regulation,  India  can  systemically  cut  down  on  urban  sprawl—allowing  basic  services  to  be  delivered  more  efficiently,  both  in  regard  to  financial  cost  and  energy  expenditure.  Secondarily  the  efficient  development  of  greenfield-­‐sites  and  prioritization  whenever  possible  of  brownfield  sites  could  promote  the  conservation  of  natural  surfaces  and  vegetation  in  the  urban  periphery—acting  as  an  important  carbon  sink  for  greenhouse  gas  emissions.     Sustainability  within  India’s  new  and  renovated  urban  environments  can  also  to  be  promoted  through  the  strategic  creation  of  compact  and  public  transport  oriented  cities.  For  established  cities  this  process  may  involve  re-­‐densification  of  urban  centers—facilitated  by  vertical  density  management  reform.  Providing  affordably  priced  and  useful  public  transit  services  to  the  urban  poor  not  only  conserves  energy,  but  also  facilitates  commerce  and  integration  throughout  the  city  due  to  reduced  transport  barriers.     Notably  unaddressed  thus  far  by  the  SCI,  the  creation  of  national  enabling  frameworks  for  innovation  and  foreign  investment  could  reduce  some  of  the  burden  on  India’s  federal  government  to  finance  the  sustainable  development  of  urban  space.  In  September  of  2014,  the  US  committed  to  contributing  both  through  government  technology  transfer  and  private  financial  sector  involvement  to  the  development  of  efficient  model  smart  cities  in  Ajmer,  Vishakhapatnam,  and  Allahabad59.  Institutionalizing  and  regularizing  this  form  of  cross  governmental  collaboration  not  only  helps  finance  components  of  the  SCI,  but  also  builds  legitimacy  in  the  international  sustainability  regime  by  demonstrating  commitment  to  environmental  conservation.  India  could  also  partner  with  the  United  Nations  Framework  Convention  for  Climate  Change  Green  Climate  Fund60,  recently  capitalized  at  US  $10  billion  to  distribute  loan  assistance  for  developing  countries  pursuing  climate  change  mitigation  and  adaption.     While  understandably  beyond  the  scope  of  the  initiative,  continuing  to  develop  India’s  rural  development  will  remain  a  vital  complement  to  Indian  urbanization  reform.  Given  that  52%  of  India’s  labor  force  is  currently  employed  in  agriculture,  investing  in  agricultural  technology  to  increase  productivity  could  not  only  reduce  migration  pressure  on  Indian  cities,  but  could  also  promote  long  term  crop-­‐yield  resilience  to  climate  change.  

Reviewing  the  political,  environmental,  and  socio-­‐economic  dynamics  underlying  India’s  record  of  urban  development  and  governance,  it  becomes  clear  that,  as  written,  Modi’s  Smart  Cities  Initiative  is  insufficient  to  meet  the  challenge  of  directing  India  towards  sustainable  and  equitable  urban  development  alone.  Improving  outcomes  of  the  SCI  will  require  an  economy  and  society-­‐wide  re-­‐

                                                                                                               59 Liu, Amy, and Robert Puentes. "Delivering on the Promise of India's Smart Cities." The Brookings Institution, 20 Jan. 2015. Web. 60 “Green Climate Fund.” News.gcfund.org. UNFCCC. Web.

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envisioning  of  urban  development  and  sustainability  policy.  Having  established  a  willingness  to  lead  at  the  federal  level,  Modi  can  improve  SCI  outcomes  further  by  engaging  with  empowered  municipal  governance  bodies—delivering  tailored  solutions  for  the  specific  economic  and  cultural  needs  of  India’s  diverse  society  while  also  contributing  meaningfully  to  the  mitigation  of  and  adaption  to  regional  and  global  climate  threats.                                                                                  

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IX.  Appendix    

   

   

0  

20  

40  

60  

80  

100  

120  

140  

1990   2000   2005  2006   2007  2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013  

Death/M

ortality  Rate  (per  1,000  people)  

Year  

Figure  1:  Indian  Crude  Death  Rate  and  Infant  Mortality  Rate  (under  5)  

Crude  Death  Rate  

Infant  Mortality  Rate  

World  Bank  

0  

0.5  

1  

1.5  

2  

2.5  

3  

3.5  

4  

4.5  

1990   2000   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013  

Births  per  wom

an  

Year  

Figure  2:  Indian  Total  Fertility  Rate  

Fertility  Rate  (births  per  woman  

World  Bank  

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0  

20  

40  

60  

80  

100  

120  

1990   2000   2005   2006   2007   2008   2009   2010   2011   2012   2013  

Births  per  1,000  wom

en  ages  15-­‐19  

Year  

Figure  3:  Indian  Adolescent  Fertility  Rate  (births  per  1,000  women  ages  15-­‐19)  

Adolescent  Fertility  Rate  (births  per  1,000  women  ages  15-­‐19)  

World  Bank  

 Figure  4:  India’s  Population  Pyramid:  2011  vs.  2026   McKinsey  Global  

Institute  

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Source:  NIC Figure  5:

52%  

14%  

34%  

Indian  Labor  Force  Division  (2011)  

Agriculture  (243  million)  

Industrial  (65.38  million)  

Services  (158.78  million)  

Figure  6:

Source:  NIC

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0  

10  

20  

30  

40  

50  

60  

70  

2000   2005   2010   2012  

%  of  Total  Workforce  

Year  

Figure  7:  Indian  Employment  by  Sector  

Agriculture  

Services  

Industry  

World  Bank  

14%  

27%  59%  

Figure  8:  Indian  Sectoral  Contribution  to  GDP  (%)  

Agriculture  

Industry  

Services  

2011:  Indian  Planning  Commission  

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Figure  9:

   

 

0  

1000  

2000  

3000  

4000  

5000  

6000  

7000  

8000  

9000  

2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  

Million  Metric  Tons  

Year  

Figure  10:  Annual  Total  Carbon  Dioxide  Emissions  from  the  Consumption  of  Energy  (G20  countries)  

Canada  Mexico  United  States  Argentina  Brazil  France  Germany  Italy  Turkey  United  Kingdom  Russia  Saudi  Arabia  South  Africa  Australia  China  India  Indonesia  Japan  South  Korea  

EIA  

National  Informatics  Center,  Indian  Planning  Committee

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0  

0.5  

1  

1.5  

2  

2.5  

3  

2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  

Metric  Tons  of  Carbon  Dioxide  per  Thousand  U.S.  

dollars  (reference  year  2005)  

Year  

Figure  11:  Indian  Economy  Carbon  Intensity  

Canada  Mexico  United  States  Argentina  Brazil  France  Germany  Italy  Turkey  United  Kingdom  Russia  Saudi  Arabia  South  Africa  Australia  China  India  Indonesia  Japan  South  Korea  

EIA  

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