climate change: implications for buildings
DESCRIPTION
The Fifth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is the most comprehensive and relevant analysis of our changing climate. It provides the scientific fact base that will be used around the world to formulate climate policies in the coming years. This document is one of a series synthesizing the most pertinent findings of AR5 for specific economic and business sectors. It was born of the belief that the building sector could make more use of AR5, which is long and highly technical, if it were distilled into an accurate, accessible, timely, relevant and readable summary. Although the information presented here is a ‘translation’ of the key content relevant to this sector from AR5, this summary report adheres to the rigorous scientific basis of the original source material. The basis for information presented in this overview report can be found in the fully-referenced and peer-reviewed IPCC technical and scientific background reports at: www.ipcc.chTRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change: Implica0ons for Buildings Key Findings from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fi7h Assessment Report June 2014
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Climate change impacts are projected to raise global average surface temperature 2.6–4.8oC by 2100. Under business-‐as-‐usual projecGons, use of energy in buildings globally could double or even triple by 2050. Drivers include billions of people acquiring adequate housing and access to electricity. The buildings sector offers near-‐term, highly cost-‐effec0ve opportuni0es to curb energy-‐demand growth rates, even to reverse them in developed economies.
Climate Change: Key Findings
Reduc0on poten0al will require: § Policies and acGons addressing
design, construc0on, and opera0on of buildings
§ Changing user behaviours and aJtudes
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OpGons specifically applicable to buildings include energy efficient technology:
§ High-‐performance building envelopes § Energy-‐efficient appliances, ligh0ng and
HVAC § EvaporaGve cooling § Solar-‐powered desiccant dehumidifica0on § Improved building automa0on and control § ‘Dayligh0ng’ buildings with adjustable
natural light § Smart meters and grids
Climate Change: Resilience
System or infrastructure efficiency may include: § Passive building designs § Individual building retrofits § Retrofit policies and Gghter building codes § Involvement from Energy Service
Companies (ESCOs)
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Buildings have already experienced a big increase in extreme weather damage in recent decades. Buildings face major risks of damage from the projected impacts of climate change. Impacts and risks include:
§ Increased precipita0on § Thawing permafrost § Urban Heat Island effect § Wildfires § Stronger winds and severe storms § Floods
Climate Change: Impacts on Buildings
There is likely to be significant regional varia0on in the intensity and nature of
such impacts.
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Regional Perspec0ves (1/2)
Big regional variaGons exist in climate change risks and capaci0es to meet them. Africa:
§ By 2050 urban popula0on projected to triple § Ci0es and towns highly vulnerable to climate change impacts
Europe: § Likely increase of heat waves § Culturally-‐valued buildings at risk to extreme events and chronic damage
Asia: § Climate change will compound stress from urbanisa0on,
industrialisa0on, and economic development § Low-‐energy mechanical cooling could reduce pressures to install energy-‐
intensive cooling
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Regional Perspec0ves (2/2)
Building codes and appliance standards, if well designed and implemented, are among the most environmentally and cost
effec0ve instruments for emission reducGons.
Oceania: § For islands, risk drivers include sea-‐level rise, tropical cyclones, rising air
and sea surface temperatures, and changing rainfall pa[erns § In Australia, buildings will be affected by hot extremes, wildfires, and
flood risks North America:
§ Costs of adaptaGon have led some to a wait-‐and-‐see aJtude § Leadership in adapta0on is more evident municipally than at other
levels of government Central and South America:
§ Central and South American have the second highest propor0on of popula0on in urban areas
§ High and persistent levels of poverty translates into high vulnerability to climate change
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Mi0ga0on
In 2010, the world’s buildings accounted for 32% of global final energy use and 19% of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Widespread implementaGon of best prac0ces and technologies could see energy use in buildings stabilise or even fall by 2050. MiGgaGon opGons offer mul0ple co-‐benefits:
§ Higher asset values § Lower energy bills § More jobs § Improved energy security § Improved produc0vity of commercial
building occupants § Beaer living and working condi0ons
for owners and tenants
Within the buildings sector, both residenGal and
commercial, early movers towards efficiency can reap
mul0ple benefits.
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Energy Use ‘Lock-‐in’
The very long life-‐cycles of buildings create risks of energy use ‘lock-‐in’ with the effects of low ambiGon today playing out for decades. Using state-‐of-‐the-‐art standards immediately, for both new and retrofit buildings, would alleviate this hazard.
‘Lock-‐in’ Today’s sluggish ambi0on
conferring a legacy of less than op0mal buildings to future
genera0ons.
climateeveryone’s businessClimate Change: Conclusion
Many barriers exist to greater uptake of energy-‐saving opportuniGes:
§ Poor market transparency § Limited access to capital § Risk aversion
Know-‐how exists on retrofiJng and how to build very low-‐ and zero-‐energy buildings, o7en at liale marginal investment cost. A broad porjolio of effec0ve policy instruments is available to remove barriers to uptake.
For more informa0on
Cambridge Ins0tute for Sustainability Leadership
Oliver Rapf, BPIE [email protected]
Anne-‐Claire Bellec, GBPN [email protected]
Irge Olga Aujouannet, WBCSD
European Climate Founda0on [email protected]
www.cisl.cam.ac.uk/ipcc www.bpie.org www.gbpn.org www.wbcsd.org
www.europeanclimate.org