socio-economic implications of climate change initiatives: priorities & implications for india

January 19, 2011

International Convention Centre,Hyderabad, India

• Overview of Climate change• Climate Change - Development – DRM* • Social and Economic Vulnerability• South Asia Perspective• India – key climate change & DRM issues• Going Forward• World Bank’s Activities in India on CC** and DRM• Key points to take away

* DRM - Disaster Risk Management; ** CC – Climate change

• Overview of Climate change• Climate Change - Development – DRM • Social and Economic Vulnerability• South Asia Perspective• India – key climate change & DRM issues• Going Forward• World Bank’s Activities in India on CC and DRM• Key points to take away

• Earth will get warmer on average, at unprecedented speed

2Source: World Development Report 2010

Global Temperature increases over time n Co2 concentrations

• Individuals’ emissions in high-income countries overwhelm those in developing countries

3Source: World Development Report 2010

• Impacts will be felt everywhere, including developed countries. – E.g., the 2003 heat wave killed more than 70,000 people in

Europe– but much of the damage will be in developing countries.

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• Poverty reduction and sustainable development remain core global priorities, particularly for developing countries …– a quarter of humanity still lives on less than $1.25 a day– one billion people lack clean drinking water; 1.6 billion,

electricity; and 3 billion, adequate sanitation; and– a quarter of all developing country children are still

malnourished

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• Development will get harder with climate change; particularly for developing countries– They are more vulnerable, bearing about 75 – 80% of the

costs of damages caused by the changing climate.– Could result in permanent reductions in GDP of 4-5% for

Africa and South Asia.

• There is possibility increasing risks towards catastrophic events related to climate change– Though the probability distribution of such catastrophic

risks is unknown, more aggressive mitigation efforts will always help.

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• Substantial uncertainties remain around climate change’s ecological and economic impacts

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Uncertainty UncertaintyUncertainty

Pace and Magnitude of

Warming

Pace and Magnitude of

Warming

Extremes of Weather

Extremes of Weather

Ability to adapt, costAbility to

adapt, cost

New Technology – discovery,

dissemination, adaption

New Technology – discovery,

dissemination, adaption

Quantum of un-avoided

residual damages

Quantum of un-avoided

residual damages

Effects on natural systems

and humans

Effects on natural systems

and humans

Key Factor

• Developing countries are more vulnerable, bcz..– They depend more directly on climate-sensitive natural

resources for income and well-being. – Most are in tropical and subtropical regions already

subject to highly variable climate.– They lack sufficient financial and technical capacities to

manage increasing climate risk.

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• Possible impacts of climate change– Water resources get affected, through effects on the monsoon– Melting of Himalayan glaciers– Rising seas may submerge much of the Maldives and inundate 18

percent of Bangladesh's land– With increasing temperatures, and sea level rise, more intense and

frequent cyclones, floods and winds are likely; increasing risks to coastal areas

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Geography, poverty and population density make South Asia more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change.

• India is highly vulnerable to natural hazards, particularly earthquakes, flood, drought, cyclone and landslides.

10

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Reported Catastrophe losses in India, 1965-2001, US$M

60% landmass – earthquake prone (of varying intensities)

About 8% prone to floods

5700 / 7500 km coast, prone to cyclones

68% - susceptible to droughts

• an equitable and effective global climate deal is needed – between the countries of the world.

• window of opportunity is closing– to choose the right policies and promote development

• Success hinges on changing the behavior and shifting public opinion– That is why we are discussing these issues here

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Climate Change

• India – Options for Low Carbon Development– Develop analytical capacity to identify low-carbon growth

opportunities– facilitate informed decision making

• Andhra Pradesh Drought Adaptation pilot project– Management and Physical action plans. Learning from villages

and scaling up• State Climate change action plans

– Orissa, Himachal, Karnataka• Himachal Pradesh – Environmental Sustainability and

Climate change

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Undertaking some analytical activities and pilot projects

Disaster Risk Mgmt

• Assisting the GoI in effectively responding to disasters– Latur, Maharashtra earthquake in 1993; Orissa super-cyclone in

1999; Bhuj, Gujarat earthquake in 2001; Andhra Pradesh cyclone in 2005; the Tsunami in South India in 2004; Bihar floods in 2008

• National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project– the first ex-ante risk mitigation project in SAR – concrete example in demonstrating the linkages between

disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation benefiting vulnerable coastal communities.

– Shows India’s leadership

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More reconstruction support so far; now moved to mitigation

socio-economic implications of climate change initiatives: priorities & implications for india

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