Climate Change Implications for South Asia

bySiddharth Chatpalliwar Vasudha Foundation

Broad Outline-

• Highlights of IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report• Comparison of the Fourth and Fifth

Assessment Reports• Challenges posed by climate change for South

Asia• Key messages for South Asia.

Highlights of AR 51. Human activity- greater than 95% chance that human

activities are the dominant cause of observed warming since the 1950s.

2. Global changes- estimated warming of 0.85 degrees Celsius since 1880, with the fastest rate of warming in the Arctic.

3. Sea- level rise- Greater that 66% chance that the Arctic Ocean will be ice free during a greater part of the summer before 2050 under a high emission scenario.

Human influence on the climate system

4. Surface warming pause- the recent reduction in surface warming is probably due to a redistribution of heat in the ocean, volcanic eruptions, and the recent minimum in the 11-year solar cycle.

5. Cumulative carbon budget- a GHG emissions budget of 840Gt of carbon has been identified. More than half of that (over 531GtC) has already been emitted.

6. Land based food systems- climate change to affect food security in areas where most of the world’s food production occurs.

Comparison between AR4 and AR5

• Global sea level is expected to rise more by 2100 than previously projected.

• There is less confidence that global average rainfall has increased in the past, but greater confidence that it will increase in the future.

• No change to earlier conclusion regarding trends in flooding.

• No change to earlier conclusions about the likely range of equilibrium climate sensitivity.

Challenges for South Asia• Temperature rise- average annual temperatures could rise by

more than 2°C over land in most of South Asia by the mid-21st century and exceed 3°C under a high emissions scenario.

• Rainfall trends- by mid-21st century southern areas of Asia will experience more rainfall. Rainfall will be more extreme near the centres of tropical cyclones making landfall in south asia.

• Sea level rise- magnitude of sea level rise by the century’s end implies increased risks for South Asia’s coastal settlements particularly if combined with changes in cyclone frequency or intensity.

• Coastal systems- sea level rise will lead to submergence, coastal flooding, and erosion.

• Climate change will cause declines in agricultural productivity in many sub-regions of Asia, for crops such as rice and wheat. This could lead to higher food prices and living costs, malnutrition, and worsened rural poverty.

• Marine systems- higher latitudes will see more biodiversity while marine population will decline in tropical latitudes.

• Flood damage- risk of floods poses a threat to infrastructure, livelihoods, and settlements.

• Heat related mortality is another major challenge.

Projected Precipitation change in South Asia

Key messages for South Asia

• South Asia’s climate is already changing and its impacts are already being felt.

• Mitigation for decarbonizing the economy is absolutely essential to reduce the impacts of climate change.

• Some low carbon options may be less costly in the long run but could offer new economic opportunities for South Asia.

• South Asia stands to benefit from integrated climate adaptation, mitigation, and development approaches.

Thank You!