climate change and ordinary folk 1

8/6/2019 Climate Change and Ordinary Folk 1

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The Consequences of Migration from Local Climate Change

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People displaced from climate changes are also economic migrants, but whereas economic migrantschoose of their own free will to migrate, climate change migrants may either be forced to move orthose who have no alternative other than moving. Therefore the term climate change migrant may bemisleading and it is probably a better definition to refer to these as climate change displaced personsand although this is probably a long and frustrating title, it better defines who these folk are.

As displaced persons, those that are displaced due to the consequences of changes in local climatecircumstances; they will have greater rights than economic migrants who are not displaced, but who

chose to move because of personal or household economic difficulties and as neither the UnitedNations nor any other international legal body has yet come to a conclusion regarding those who aredisplaced because of climate changes they will have to come to some decisions and within the nextdecade, otherwise there will be great confusion for individual governments that find that they have agrowing number of displaced persons.

To be displaced by a change in climate may be where the seawater level has risen too far to allowstaying appropriate, or where desertification has occurred, or where saltwater encroachment hasmade food production impossible and there will be other definitions that will explain why folks aredisplaced.

Acceptable reasons of community displacement

[a] Rising seawater level.

[b] Desertification.[c] Saltwater encroachment into agricultural land.[d] A high level of natural deforestation and land erosion.[e] Spreading liquefaction.[f] Coastal erosion.[g] Increased flooding in delta areas.[h] Loss of safe drinking water.*

[i] Rapid increase in liquefaction.* A permanent decline in water-tables or natural springs drying up.

From the (above) table it can be seen that under these circumstances it would not be possible forwhole communities to stay at their present location and thus become displaced and in need of

resettlement. Where these folk are resettled could be crucial as regards civil conflict is concerned.However, if there are to be acceptable definitions of what constitutes a displaced person from climatechange, there must also be unacceptable definitions; such as natural catastrophes.

Possibly unacceptable reasons of community displacement

[a] Earthquakes.[b] Landslides.[c] Volcanic eruptions.[d] Man made deforestation.[e] Riverbank erosion?[f] Occasional flash flooding[g] Short term droughts

None of the above could be deemed as caused by climate changes, although the border between thatwhich is acceptable and that which is not may be tenuous at times. Conversely, the rights and wrongsof suitability will have to be determined by international law makers.

What is understood about climate change?Few of the ordinary people understand the affects of the climate changes that are going on aroundthem and see no reason to react to all to the warnings of dire consequences in decades to come, andyet, these changes will affect everyone in every aspect of daily life and in the near future. There willbeconflicts and these will be primarily caused by food shortages (and thus price increases), potablewater shortages and lack of employment (income generation) opportunities. At times it seems to manythat governments are keeping the true effects of climate changes a secret, at least as they are knownat this time; although few are worried about reaction from tree huggers but are concerned about the

ambivalence of the general public.For many years, scientists, economists, meteorologists and others have debated the short, mediumand long term effects of climate change and for ease have attached the label Global, whereas,


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although it is accepted that there is a situation that will have an effect on the entire globe, the maineffects are local and vary vastly and there are too many variables that confuse the issue and theordinary person on the street is no longer capable of following the endless debates and has lostinterest due to the many conflicting visions put forward. It may be wetter, drier, and stormier or acombination of all of these and the short to medium terms are hard to predict, even with globalcomputer mapping systems. Add in natural disasters such as the high intensity earthquakes,tsunamis, floods, tornados and or cyclones that are not predictable, other than seasonal expectations

and it shows the capriciousness and to advise people of some of the dramatic changes that willprobably take place, is to cause the potential for panic. It seems that as in advertising, when peopleare overloaded with detailed information or multiple choices, the consequence is that the detail isignored or scorned, as people cannot see any immediate effect.

Looking at a map of the world, it can be seen that the majority of the land mass is in the northernhemisphere and indeed, most of the land is above the equator and so, the cooler countries are in thenorth with the hotter countries are on or around the middle and it is these, the tropical countries thatwill face the majority of problems from climate changes and it should be understood that many of thecountries at risk are also developing countries. The Antarctic, the large land mass at the bottom of the

map is mostly a frozen wasteland and although there is no equal large land mass in the north, whatthere is, is the Arctic Ocean and within this is Greenland and much of this is also frozen, as are thenorthern areas of Canada and Russia. The cold in the north keeps the moderate temperatures in thenorthern countries and thus, with climate change will remain cool but not necessarily cold. The peoplein the northern hemisphere will experience warmer weather and be able to grow more food crops,whereas the areas in the middle, already warm or hot, will getter warmer and be able to grow less foodcrops and experience greater water shortages and thus, it can be understood why many economicmigrants are already attempting to gain access to the northern hemisphere countries. This is anunsophisticated explanation of the areas that will be affected by climate change but it is sufficient forits purpose. Add to this scenario the fact that the most affected areas are running out of secure watersources, both for direct human consumption and for crop production.

What may seem to be obvious consequences from large numbers of people migrating away fromclimate change affected areas to urban areas that are already overcrowded and have existingstresses over the supply of basic resources; there is a multitude of variables that will affect thesituation at grass roots level. Food shortages may be caused by local events, or may be caused byprice swings on the international commodity markets, or local politics may cause the wealthiermembers of a community to benefit above the impoverished community members.

This short paper intends to look at the problems caused due to climate changes by internal migration(within national borders), as external migration (crossing national borders) will be subject to bordercontrols and international laws and also into the basic facts that will not only trigger migration but alsotrigger the civil conflict in a climate change situation that will be the potential root causes and althoughthere are many variables that will affect these intentions, it is necessary to consider all and determinethose that are most likely to trigger the events that will lead to civil conflict. However, climate change is

not the only factor involved, as this alone will affect economies, international trading markets, politicsand in some cases, religious tolerances.

- Climate change has no understandable meaning for the majority of ordinary folk


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Although there are many indicators, there is no one within the climate change scenario, who candetermine accurately what events will happen globally or locally or where (and when) these events willhappen and few are prepared to take the gamble to make predictions. What is certain however is thatcertain areas of the globe will suffer extremes in changed climate, whilst others will see few, or evenbeneficial changes and what is also certain is the apparent apathy of a significant percentage of theglobal population towards climate change. Few can believe that in their lifetime their lifestyles will bechanged and unless it can be shown that these changes will have any affect within a few years, those

that are apparently apathetic will take no notice of the high level of promotion of responses to climatechange and this is at the heart of the problems of climate change, plus the danger of overloadingpeople with detailed information. For those that deny that any changes in climate are occurring lackthe understanding that some changes, however slight, have already occurred.

Basics:There are some facts that cannot be challenged and some of these are that in some places theclimate is changing and regardless of the reasons for these changes, be they partially from humanintervention or the normal biological process of the planet they cannot be defined and yet, thesechanges are part both.

Where there are these changes, however unpredictable they are, they are some consequences of thechanges that should alert all those that are involved and of these changes, many point to the

possibility of conflict, directly due to the changes in local climate. However, arising conflicts may not bedirectly due to climate change in one particular area, as there are international or environmentalfactors that may add to a local situation; completely out of the hands of local communities orgovernments. Therefore, climate change may be the reason given for a change in circumstances, butthe triggers of conflict will be caused by competition for finite resources within those changedcircumstances.

Resource requirement Purpose Resource scarcity

Accommodation and land Urbanisation Land non agricultural

Competition for finite resources Between hosts and migrants Potable water

Between suppliers and users Basic foods

Food producers and markets Agricultural land resources

Competition for public services Health care provision Finances

Education Trained personnel

Sanitation and waste disposal

As the climate changes take effect in some areas, it will be noticed that the rural population declinesand the rate of urbanisation swells rapidly and the migration will be as a result of certain core triggersthat need to be identified and responded to. The effective triggers in the rural areas will bring to lightthe localised effects of climate change and the effects that these have on rural livelihoods andlifestyles. However, not all of the changes will be due to the climate changes and monitoring oflocalised situations will need to be accurate. Changing weather patterns will cause crop productionproblems, be these a lack of water, higher or lower temperatures or disease or insect infestations. Oneor even two years of poor yields may not deter the local food producers, though these should raise

concern in the government departments that monitor crop yields.- Many of the migrants that claim climate change as their reason to migrate may after all, only be

economic migrants -

Falling school attendance rates will be an indicator of primary economic problems in the rural areasand these should be monitored closely, especially the number of boys failing to attend. It is alsoprobable that girls will leave school prior to graduating to seek domestic or retail employment to helpsupport the family income. As there are few retail or domestic jobs available in the rural areas, theyouth will move to the most populated areas where there are a lot of retail employment opportunities.

The Changing Climate:It is generally agreed that the overall temperature of the globe has risen by (approximately) 0.2o

Celsius; although when studying individual areas of the globe, local temperatures have been seen to

have risen by 1.0o

Celsius or more and where the ordinary folk learn of the average globaltemperature rise, it is ignored as being sufficiently insignificant to create a feeling of change or ofgreater benefit in the cooler countries. However, in the individual or local areas where temperatureshave risen significantly these changes are affecting day-to-day life, especially in the food production


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and potable water provision industries. As an example; a 1.0oCelsius rise in temperature can reducethe yield of rice by 10% and as rice is one of the main basic foods, this is of great concern. Likewise athigher temperatures, water evaporates from the soil rapidly and does not percolate down into thenatural water reserves under the soil; thus reducing the water table. Unfortunately not everyone willrecognise these local changes immediately, nor realise the effect that these changes are having onthe local area, until a number of years have passed, when, for instance, food shortages occur or theavailability of potable water is much reduced. Even the food producers may not, at first, recognise that

significant changes have occurred; as many farming communities have memories of dramatic changesfrom years before and it is often assumed incorrectly that the changes will resort to normal at sometime or other.

However, other than some the scientific calculations and some known involvement of humanintervention, by burning fossil fuels etc; there is nothing to say that the changing climate as it isnothing but a natural event, given that the planet has been through many cooling and warming periodsthroughout the history of the planet and this is what climate change sceptics cling to, to support theircase. There is sufficient documentation from studies of weather data in some places to show thatclimates are changing; although most studies can only use data from the mid 1900s, as this is whenaccurate weather records started from. Although there is sufficient evidence to show that the migrationas known in the past has been seasonal, modern day migration is mostly economical and those whohave worked in natural resources development at grass roots level for any period of time, can show

sound evidence that in some areas the latest change in climate has had serious effects on the naturalresources sector and this must be addressed; either in the need to accept that a larger majority ofpeople will move to the urban areas or to rapidly develop rural food production methods.

Central and local government officials may be aware of the gradual changes and the consequences ofthese and yet they prefer to keep this knowledge to themselves; otherwise demands to provide extrasupport and thus financesfor correcting a situation back to normal. It is also a fair comment thatpopulations of the colder northern countries tend to welcome the thought of warmer weather, althoughcompletely leaving out that; with the warmer temperatures comes the possibility of increased periodsof drought, stormy rainfall periods and often severe winters. There is also the other side of the globalwarming scenario that some places will benefit and to be able to grow crops that they were unable todo so, before temperature rises.

A change in the level of the sea is inevitable as long as the main areas of ice continue to melt andalthough the predicted annual sea level rise is in millimetres, over a period of time, these mount up tocreate scenarios where lowland and delta areas will be flooded, causing the people of these areas tomigrate and also that as many of these areas are used for food production an alternative means ofproving the food production lost will have to be found and in the face of an increasing globalpopulation. Whether or not constructing sea defences will be economical or able to withstand thepower of the sea, remains to be seen and whether or not these are to be permanent structures will bedictated by the economies and the length of time that certain sea defences are expected to restrainthe seawater; giving time enough to satisfactorily relocate the communities that will be dependent ofthese defences.

- Climate change itself will not cause conflict; it is the changed circumstances in settlement areas

that will cause competition for finite resources that will cause the conflict -Many resources and services are already suffering stress and the internal migration is exacerbatingthese stresses, causing some conflict. With the annual population expansion rate remaining at itspresent level in many countries, the global population may exceed the ability of the resource providersto sustain the expanding population. All of these are potential causes of civil conflict, althoughpredicting when settlement communities reach saturation points will depend upon the community mixand the ability of providers to supply the resources required to keep community lifestyles stable. Thereare now many more projects to determine the social status of communities and their understanding ofpersonal or community well being. These projects need to be revisited regularly to determine changesin assumed well being and lifestyles.

The Migrants:

Having defined the many who are forced to move because of climate changes as climate changedisplaced persons there is a need to define those who choose, of their own free will, to migratebecause of changed local climate and for this, they can be termed as economic migrants from climate


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change. It is important to recognise economic migrants from climate change as opposed to economicmigrants; but for this paper the emphasis will be on climate change migrants and the generaleconomic migrants will be left aside. As economies and local changes in climate fluctuate, migrationbecomes one of the greatest threats to stability within nations and internal migration is very difficult tocontrol and although external migration gives some control to authorities, there are many ways andmeans of avoiding these controls, especially where there are loose borders on large land masses orlarge areas of island states.

The world map (above) gives a general idea of international migrant sources and where they areheading, in order to settle and these, at this time, are economic migrants and as yet, there is no dataor mapping available for displaced people from climate changes, although the world map (below)shows the present rate of migration and both of these maps give indicators that areas most likely to

suffer some of the severest climate changes are showing many immigrants. It is fair to say that manyof these areas show some level of conflict.

A majority of the migrants seem to be from the rural areas; showing the probability that rural

economies are not maintaining a satisfactory level of progress and also, that many of the youth nolonger wish to be involved in the rural economy, given the facilities available for the youth in the urbanand sub-urban areas. No matter that great effort is being put in to improve and diversify the rural


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economies, governments simply cannot afford the level of expenditure to support the intensity ofdevelopment required in order to maintain the rural economies at the same level of the urbaneconomies.

- Internal migration is one of the greatest risks to civil order throughout the globe -

At most risk are the coastal and rural communities and the rural communities can be in delta or uplandareas. In the coastal areas there are two events happening. In the tropical areas where thetemperature of the sea has increased, some coral reefs are dying because of the higher temperatures,

causing sterilisation and this is often exacerbated by the phenomena of El Nino and coral reefs are the breeding grounds of many of the tropical fish species. Where sea levels are rising, the salinity ofthe seawater is poisoning coastal agricultural areas, especially where the sea can encroach into thedelta areas via river estuarine areas. Add in the effects of overfishing and illegal fishing practices andit understandable why many fishing communities are in decline and are turning to agricultural activitiesto boost household incomes. However, where fishing communities turn to agriculture to boosthousehold incomes there comes a higher risk of soil erosion of the poor or marginal soils used. Otherthan local climate changes, there are two weather phenomena that can add to the decline situationsand these are El Nino and La Nina and although, in some ways, both of these are predictable, theireffects are not; as has been seen by the floods in Australia and Southern America during 2011.

Not only is salinity directly affecting crop production on the coasts, it now encroaches into inland sub-

soil and this builds deposits that can be released through cultivation of the soil. These environmentalrisks to the coastal areas discourage people from staying on the coasts and they migrate to findalternative employment in urban and sub-urban areas; thus adding to the stress on public servicesprovision, employment opportunity and land resources. Thus, the perceived environmental risks in thecoastal areas act as a primary trigger. Local climate changes have affected the level of food and non-food production in the rural areas and the level of support filtered back from urban incomes to supportthe rural economies is increasing yearly; thus giving a level of external dependence that is not healthy.

- Add in religious, racial and tribal differences into a volatile resettlement area and the risk of civilconflict rises many fold -

Internal migrants and their employment opportunity requirements are a greater threat to civil orderthan many people can conceive, as the following table will show:

Problem area: Skill level: Section:Employment opportunity reduced for the: Non skilled Retail

DomesticConstruction

Semi skilled RetailDomesticConstruction

Government services provision stresses: Health services Education services Crime control Water provision Potable water

Irrigation water

Sanitation Human sewerageSolid waste management Transport infrastructure Main highways

Farm to market roads Tax collection Environmental

Social stresses: Tribal conflict Racial conflict Religious conflict Unemployment

Other problems: Power shortages Household & BusinessFood storageWater pumping

Cost of essential fuels

A mention has been made of non-food crops and these are important to many rural communities andthis is because the soil, altitude or conditions are not suitable to produce food crops and the non-food


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crops are essential to these communities to provide income to purchase household food and othercommodities. Non-food crops are an important part of the economy, with many manufacturers relianton sustainable supplies in order to provide both industry and householders with the day-to-daycommodities that are essential and will be required when resettling migrants and displaced persons.

As can be seen from the table above, there are many potential triggers to civil unrest within thecombined problems created by internal migrants and these cause pressure on local and centraleconomies. Where large numbers of migrants resettle in urban and sub-urban areas the competition

for employment and government services will cause great stress and to add in the potential of tribal,racial or religious conflicts makes migrant settlement areas potentially very volatile indeed. With thesesituations apparent, local and central governments will have to consider the ways in which civil ordercan be maintained at the same time as controlling planning and resourcing services provision, crimecontrol at the same time as attempting to limit the environmental damage that large influxes ofmigrants could cause.

- Migrants or the displaced people will come to be seen as a burden in host resettlementcommunities -

Many of the migrants will have left impoverished rural areas where farming families have been unableto create sufficient income to maintain a whole family and also where climate change has restrictedthe ability to produce food crops to an extent whereby whole communities slip below the marginal leveland triggering the need to move. Another type of migrant will be those from industrial areas that arefailing and where unemployment has risen well above national levels and unskilled and semi skilledworkers will leave to seek opportunity elsewhere and as many industrial areas are nearby toresidential areas conflicts will arise.

Although many people will think of rural communities as mostly farming communities, the situation ismore complicated than simply farming. The various altitudes and terrains considerably alter theenvironment in which these communities produce food and other crops and leave aside that manyfishing communities are also rural. All of these communities, be they coastal, upland or delta haveequally added to their own demise by overworking the existing natural resources, to a point wherebythey are no longer sustainable. However, in mitigation, it must be stated that the rising cost of livinghas forced these community members to overwork their resources.

Many rural areas are very conservative and migrants tend to carry this conservatism with them towhere they settle and thus create a breeding ground for unrest within tribal, racial or religiouscommunes.

Too many people ignore one of the major moral principles that drive marginal and impoverishedhouseholds and this is the dignity perceived by the main breadwinner to provide for a household andto do so from their own labour or effort. Often, when this dignity is lost, especially during periods whererelief is required, a household breadwinner can lose the dignity (or lose face) within a community andit could be this loss of face that may cause the usual breadwinner to resort to activities that areconsidered to be outside of the social norm or trigger the wish to migrate.

The Migrant Settlements:There will be many more migrants on the move, mostly from marginal rural areas, although where

some industries struggle to get through periods of economical stress, these will also add to thenumber of migrants seeking settlement sites. Central government policies may determine wheremigrants would be encouraged to settle, although delicately politically balanced local governmentsmay not wish to confront these issues; mainly because of the economic pressures that will be addedto their budgets but also because accepting large numbers of migrants may cause political instability.

However, these issues must be confronted and local governments will be made responsible forallocating areas where migrants can settle; otherwise migrants, especially the poorest, will settle inand expand the shanty type townships that are places where the civil conflict disturbances most oftenoccur first. All local governments of whatever political persuasion will already note that many publicservices are stressed as they are now and impoverished migrants will add severely to these stressesand greater demands will be put upon the higher income earners.

Governments have duties of care to provide the basic needs of land, water and shelter, althoughgovernments are well aware that without employment opportunity, to provide for families, the provisionof the basics are simply not enough to maintain civil peace.


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Governments will have problems collecting revenue in the form of personal taxes within many of themigrant settlements, as much of business will be undertaken in the informal economy (what is alsoknown as the black market) and this is one reason why value added taxes (VAT) will probably rise asa means of collecting taxes indirectly. This in turn will encourage smuggling of many of the basicessential as a means of keeping the street prices down within the migrant communities and as hasbeen stated; the migrant folk will find ways of helping themselves to the commodities that they need.

Zoning areas to be used and/or banned for migrant settlements:

Acceptable zones for migrant habitation Unacceptable zones for migrant habitationLand of no agricultural value. Prime quality agricultural land.

Residential zones. Secondary quality agricultural land.

City zones. Marginal quality agricultural land.

Retail / residential zones. Forestry zones.

Flood plains and Wetland zones.

Water catchment zones.

River and Estuarine zones.

SSSI* zones.

Sea defence and Liquefaction zones.

Erosion prone coastal zones.

Erosion prone upland zones.

Urban 'green' zones.Urban recreational zones.

Industrial zones.

Bio-hazard zones.

20a - Nuclear energy production zones.

20b - Chemical zones.

20c - Human waste disposal zones.

20d - Military zones.

20e -Airport zones.

*Sites of Special Scientific Interest

There are some areas where migrants must not be allowed to settle and local governments aided by

central governments must undertake to create accurate environment maps and from these createspecialised zones. As can be seen from the table [above], there are areas which must haverestrictions put upon them, in order to preserve agricultural land, forestry, water catchment and floodareas, areas prone to erosion and urban green spaces.

From the table above also it can be seen that there are obvious places where settlements must bebanned and these are zones concerned with dangers to health and safety. The impoverished willattempt to take up land that is in banned areas, as this land will be owned by government or privatelandowners, where the land has little value and this will be of interest to the impoverished. There aremany existing examples of where impoverished migrants have made settlements in urban areaswhere there are flood plains, river estuarine areas and land used for garbage disposal.

It is clear that central governments must assist local governments to select sites where human

migrants would be allowed and furthermore assist with the planning processes required. Zones can becreated and those that are not suitable for migrant settlements must be strictly policed in order toensure prime and secondary quality agricultural land is not used for settlements, or where there arelikely to be hazards to health and safety. Local governments can be given some leeway in areaswhere land could, if necessary, be used for settlement.

The increasing density of populations in urban areas, especially where the areas are alreadyovercrowded, must be of considerable concern to local and central governments, as many of theseareas attract the impoverished. Where there are impoverished there is daily competition for resourcesand the impoverished take up many of the original open spaces, be these flood plain areas , humanwaste disposal areas or areas of environmental interest. With this, it is clear that many of the lowincome urban areas will spread further and in the better off urban areas, construction is as likely to goupwards as well as sideways, as competition for land increases. The value of urban and sub-urbanland areas will inevitably increase and governments may have to intervene in order to not only securethe land required for expansion but also to reduce the threat of price increases. With the rapidity of


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urbanisation, it is inevitable that new towns will have to be constructed and these in areas that have noagricultural value and away from prescribed zones.

- There is also the question of the provision of buffer zones to protect endangered flora and faunaspecies from migrant settlers -

Amongst all of the problems of climate change, consideration should be given to the wild flora andfauna and although this may be of little interest to impoverished migrants, there is a value to be putupon wild species that require protection. Buffer zones are one solution, as are Sites of Special

Scientific Interest (SSSIs), as these are very important resources.

Urbanisation:Urbanisation is or will be one of the greatest threats to governments and the consequences of localclimate changes, although there are other problems for governments such as financial, environmentaland service provision and a blend of these will bring a higher risk of conflict that may be beyond theability of any government to control although conflict will not be the only consequence. This is becausewhere migrants of different backgrounds dwell together; it is certain that there will be different culturemixes and these will clash. Food riots and conflict with migrants have already been seen and theseare certain to intensify as urbanisation increases. These governments will also have to decide, withinthe realms of international law, how much strength they use to curtail civil unrest in local communities.

As rural occupations fail to supply the basic means for families to live a reasonable lifestyle, possiblydue to changes in local climate, individual members of some families have a tendency to move to thelocal towns in order to find employment to either support themselves or to support themselves andsend surplus monies back to the family household. Often, these family members seem to create asustainable lifestyle and this encourages other family members to follow. As rural economies declinefurther, whole families leave and it is at this stage where the urban and sub-urban areas start tobecome overcrowded and where competition begins for various basic resources; such as land,potable water, health services provision, sanitation services and employment and if these shortagesbecome highly stressed, outbreaks of conflict can occur. Once conflict occurs, no matter at what level,groups of people start to take varying and/or opposite views and at this stage, it creates risks for theauthorities.

- Too many people ignore the need of the dignity of a household breadwinner to provide for their

household by their own efforts -

One of the major concerns for governments and major organisations is the probability of increasinglevels of conflict and this does not mean armed conflict between nations. The conflict potential ismostly internal, although some may likely spread over national borders, especially in large land massareas where borders are easily crossed.

- Jealousy is a primary trigger in areas where there is competition for resources -

Imagine living in a stable, say medium sized community that is well regulated and has a reasonablegeneral lifestyle and into this community, the government decides to allow migrants to take up landspace not used for agriculture or other productive activities by the present host community. Themigrants will require special attention in order to be able to take up residence and this requires landclearance, housing construction and extra public services in order that the migrants may settle. Otherthan an original friendly welcome from the hosts, it soon becomes clear that the incomers are getting alarger share of the attention and the hosts may show some concern over this. The migrant additionswill require employment, education, health and other services; thus the seeds of jealousy andcompetition are sown and by its very nature this is conflict, albeit in its lowest form. From this, becauseof a rise in the level of conflict, the central authorities may decide that a larger policing capability isrequired and in some terms, this can actually add to the feeling of jealousy and migrants get blamedfor even minor problems. In some cultures it is not long before the jealousies and competition becomephysical.

- At what level will the civil authorities intervene to restore law and order and what level ofstrength will they use to achieve their desired level of order -

Where rural economies fail due to climate changes, this, in general, causes the amount of basic foodsproduced locally to decrease, with inevitable price increases and the competition for these. If theclimate change has caused less rainfall, the underground water reserves decrease (water tablelowers), easily accessed potable water becomes short and authorities have to take water from lower in


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the earth and in some cases this water can contain poisonous substances (heavy metals etc). Watershortages also mean that there is less water for crop irrigation, further reducing crop yields. As of yetthe desalination and distribution of seawater has been very expensive and ways must be found toimprove this system that will probably be very important for the survival of many communities thatspread from the coast inwards. Another point to consider is that many small producers sell their cropsin advance of harvesting and once harvested they have little remaining for their own households,prompting the need to earn income outside of the normal employment activity; adding to competition

for employment within a community.The Primary Triggers:

Local climate changes will slowly cause economic problems; primarily in the rural areas and theseproblems will encourage rural people to seek alternative methods of employment and as there is lessalternative employment opportunity in the rural areas, a slow movement of people will be seen andthese will mostly be those below twenty-five years of age. Certain conflicts that spread through therural areas will also be a cause of some people to move, but these are generally seen as conflictmigrants that governments seek to help. However, as has already been seen in areas where conflictmigrants have been resettled, host communities soon become jealous of the benefits given to theconflict migrants and this causes conflict, albeit non-violent in many cases.

- Other than potable water shortages, conflict in urban areas may not be directly caused by climate

change; competition for finite resources and employment will trigger urban conflict

Of all of the basic resources water is by far the most important and the availability of safe, potablewater is becoming scarce and in some of the developing countries there are great shortages at thistime and given an increasing global population and given also that increasing urbanisation is a fact; itis safe to state that alternative means of harvesting potable water and water for irrigation must befound.

In order to determine the criteria for government intervention in the need to resettle those affected bylocalised climate changes, there has to be a certain level at which a government must intervene inorder to ensure that life is not endangered and it is presumed that there will be an internationallyagreed method of achieving this. In this document an example is used in which three categories areenvisaged.

The severity in the level of localised climate changes will probably be categorised by international

agreement to take into consideration the effect on the local peoples ability to sustain the basic

standard of life including a general forecast of the future consequences of climate changes in a given

area or community.

Severity: Effect:

Mild: Minor disruptions to daily lifestyle, although these disruptions may becomeintermediate at some time in the near future. It is thought that the majority of acommunity will prefer to stay in the area.

Intermediate: Where it is accepted that the effects of local climate change are unlikely to a returnto a mild state and any further decline in this situation will probably become severe.

It is thought that many within a community will elect to migrate of their own accordand thus not subject to support from government resources and be termed aseconomic migrants.

Severe: In this condition, the effects and consequences of climate change are reaching orhave gone beyond a point or whereby daily lifestyle is severely restricted and that inorder to maintain life, the community will have to be resettled elsewhere and thusbecome displaced people and entitled to government support to resettle.

The above represents a simplistic viewpoint of the criteria, although it is sufficient for these purposes.


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Lessons should be learned from the problems of placing conflict migrants in host communities, as thiswill apply equally to communities that absorb climate change migrants. There are many researchresults to show that urbanisation is an existing problem in many countries and local climate changeswill severely add to this and it is in the urban and sub-urban areas where climate change conflict willbe most serious. Of the major triggers, the following will be primary:

- Potable water shortages.- Potable water charges.- Basic food shortages.- Basic food prices.- Employment opportunity for unskilled and semi-skilled.- Urban overcrowding.- Declining but essential public services provision.

Added to the above there are certain variables that will need to be taken into consideration. Thesevariables have as much to do with peoples perception other than facts, except where outward signs ofpotential conflict are seen:

- Racial differences.- Tribal differences.- Religious differences.- Urban land availability- Perceived favouritism towards migrants for inputs

As well as discerning the probable primary trigger points, it is useful to look at the prime reasons forpeople deciding to move away from a home community. For this purpose two likely sources are being

used and these are rural and industrial. However, there are further definitions that apply to rural andthese are coastal rural, delta rural and upland rural and as can be envisaged there are manyvariables that can be applied and in these cases the oft use phrase average cannot be applied,considering that this is in a localised climate change situation:

- Climate change caused declines in production- Climate change causing a decline in employment opportunity- Climate change weather system alterations- River siltation from upland soil erosion- Increased liquefaction in coastal and swamp areas- Overuse of delta area agricultural (prime) land- Deforestation of land for agricultural production- Overuse and possible destruction of finite natural resources

- Potential for land disputes

In an attempt to identify the primary conflict trigger points, it is probable that these will be in the lowincome urban settlements, where there is strong competition for employment, basic foods, potable


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water and public services and combine an increasing number of displaced persons or migrants addingto the established stress in the settlements, it becomes plain that the settlements are high risk.Religious, tribal and racial intolerances will only add to the potential of urban conflict. However,although the migrants may tip the balance, it is the reason that the migrants have moved that is at theroot of the problem and to exacerbate this problem, neither national nor international governments ororganisations have sufficient funds available to meet the dire need to address the needs in the ruralareas, regardless of climate change and given localised changes in climate adding to the problem, it is

very important to identify the likely rural areas where prime support is required.If some form of support is to be provided in the areas most likely to erupt into civil conflict, then there isa requirement to know what the actual triggers might be and to recognise that these civil conflicts willbe different in the rural areas to those in the urban areas.

What are likely to be the base triggers of civil conflict in rural and urban areas?

Civil conflict trigger points common to both of the urban and rural areas will be the availability ofpotable water, affordable basic foods, employment opportunity, land shortages and inter-tribaldisputes and although it is often assumed that the rural folk have sufficient water and basic foods, ahigh percentage of rural areas suffer prolonged droughts and declining water tables and as most ruralhouseholds rely on permanent or seasonal employment, employers are going to reduce labour ratesas much as possible.

Potential conflict triggers Urban Rural

Potable water availability # #

Irrigation water availability #

Basic food price and availability # #

Employment availability # #

Employment wage rates # #

Employment lay-offs # #

Inter-tribal disputes # #

Land ownership disputes #

Land rental disputes # #

Land grazing rights #Land crop sharing disputes #

Land bonded labour disputes #

Forrest access rights #

Forest grazing rights #

Forrest timber cutting rights #

Forrest hunting rights #

There are other triggers that although they may not lead directly to civil conflict they are lifestyleindicators that may add to dispute situations. As examples of these, shortages of fuels will lead to dailyproblems and as such, some are listed below:

Electricity: Cold Storage facilities would cease to maintain delicate food stocks or medicines if [a];

electricity suffered long outages and [b] or failed totally. Likewise, much of thegeneration of electricity in some countries is dependent on the availability and cost ofdiesel fuel.

Diesel: Local transport facilities would be severely disrupted should there be shortages ofdiesel fuel and the ability to transport food and other essentials to markets would bedisrupted.

Petrol: Shortages of petrol would affect the ability of many small farmers to be able to irrigatetheir crops with petrol driven pumps.

Kerosene: Shortages of kerosene would affect many households that do not have electricity forlighting and also restrict the use of kerosene cookers and refrigerators.

There is also the likelihood that other than basic foods, certain food items may be in short supply,

especially in the rural areas and again, although these shortages may not be directly responsible foroutbreaks of civil conflict, they may certainly add to a marginal situation.

Salt: Cooking oil: Sugar: Wheat flour: ?


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To exacerbate the problem further, there is little understanding in the rural areas about climatechanges and unfortunately, the rural communities see little of the dramatic changes that would besufficient to bring the problem to their attention. Rural communities may be used to long periods ofdrought or floods and will ignore the warnings of permanent changes.

Too many consultants give theoretical advice and insufficient practical examples of what changeshave already occurred. Very few rural communities notice the very gradual changes that are takingplace and those that do recognise changes see them as too small to take real notice of and anyway,

what changes will show in my lifetime. However much the ordinary folk understand about changes inclimate, there is one worrying fact that needs to be addressed and that is that in general academicsthat produce papers on climate change seem only to be targeting these scholastic missives towardsother academics, leaving the ordinary folk out of the process of understanding and this mustchange.

Who will profit from local climate changes?

From all of the misery caused mostly within impoverished communities due to local climate changes,there will be those who profit from some of the misery caused. Even though governments will seek toimpose limits to profiteering, market forces will ensure that basic necessities are available although ata price. Potable and irrigation water, urban land resources and basic foods will be at risk in manyareas and as has been seen in some countries already, riots from angry citizens have broken out,usually over the cost or availability of basic foods. It is certain to be of benefit to those that

manufacture emergency relief materials, as there are large profits to made from these.

Water Potable for human consumptionIrrigation for farmers and growers

Land Urban and sub-urban housing and servicesFood Wholesalers

Industrial farmersServices Government provision of water, health, education and waste disposal services

As urbanisation increases, the land prices in the urban and sub-urban areas will rise significantly, asdevelopers and landowners seek to accommodate migrants from the rural areas. Migrants ordisplaced people moving to the urban areas will compete for work, food, public services, potable water

and other basic needs and this again, will lead to conflict from mild to severe. It would be worthwhilefor an organisation to list all of the possible changes in all various areas and then, perhaps thedevelopment agencies could be aware of likely projects to undertake.

Hoarding of commodities has already been seen, especially food and the general populace views thiswith great distaste and this alone has caused riots in some countries and governments must seek tooutlaw this practice and be seen to do so, otherwise the hoarders can control and increase the pricesof basic necessities in the markets. One concern about expanding urban and sub-urban areas is thatthe land required to enable these expansions may encroach onto agricultural, water catchment areasor protected environmental land, further reducing the ability to provide the amount of food needed tofeed a local population or to protect delicate environments.

External pressures that may affect human migration:

There are external pressures that will affect many situations where people migrate because of localclimate change and most of these pressures are unpredictable and not directly caused by the migrantsand many of the migrants will not be aware of some or any of these pressures from outside althoughmany will be affected by the pressures. However, these changes will not be universal as the changesin the upland areas will differ from those lower down and inappropriate agricultural practices willexacerbate soil erosion and this will cause problems downstream into the coastal waters.

Richer nations will dominate the markets for oils, minerals and food and as has already been seen inAfrica, with the competition for land resources, either by external governments or private institutions.The money of the richer nations will prove to be persuasive and the currency values of developingcountries will decline; increasing the competition between local and foreign values.

- Price of basic fuels on the international markets.

- International market volatility of basic foods and other commodities.

- Sudden environmental calamities that draw on the funds set aside for emergencies.

- Cross border conflicts.


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Unfortunately, international commodity brokers will take advantage of shortages to push through priceincreases and more purchasing governments will have to subsidise the cost of essential basics totheir populations, in order to attempt to avoid civil conflicts. Once decisions are made to subsidise theessential basics, [a] there will be expectations from those benefitting that subsidies should bepermanent and [b] these actions will take money out of development budgets and thus becomes a twoedged sword against which governments will struggle. It is therefore apparent that companyshareholders will hold much of the moral responsibilities towards civil conflict. The international

commodity markets will have a key role in many of the economies as the climate changes and theavailability and cost of many of the raw materials will be critical to the ability of governments to fundproactive and reactive solutions to changing climates. Basic foods, raw minerals, raw fibres areessential to manufacturing and balancing national budgets and any drastic shortages will causeunpredictable swings.

- Company shareholders may become morally responsible for outbreaks of civil conflict -

This is where Africa and to some extent Australia and South America have become a major targets ofthe international traders, with their vast wealth of minerals and land that could yield many times whatthey do at present; although the political problems that are inherent in African life have held back theability of the continent to progress. As has been seen, one of the largest economies in the world,China, has sought to gain influence and the raw materials that are so essential to Chinas growth.

Many of the developed economies fail to compete with China on equal terms, as China has littleinterest in the finer points or moral issues in international law or development. The western countriesgovernments are elected on manifestoes by the people and are bound be international conventions,whilst Chinas government is not elected by the people and either ignore or circumvent many of theaccepted conventions. All of this puts China well ahead in its need to [a] feed its people; [b] providethe raw materials for its industry and [c], gain greater political influence in African countries that havenot yet accepted full democracies. All of these together give China a very strong position to faceclimate changes and also to dominate the commodity markets, not only in raw materials but also infinished goods.

Looking Towards the Future:

It is clear from much of the research already undertaken that it will be the rural communities that will

bear the main impact of local climate changes, be these coastal, delta or upland communities andfrom the depth of severity of these changes will come the decisions to migrate or stay. As lifestyles inthe rural areas decline, more will add to the general situation of urbanisation and it is here that theconflicts will arise, for whatever reasons. Thus, certain international decisions must be made in order[a] to realise the extent of the problems in local areas and [b], to be able to predict as closely aspossible the events and react in time for the severity of changes to be mitigated.

Too few governments have concentrated sufficient energy or resources into making the best possibleuse of some of their natural resources and many countries have large tracts of land that is underused.They fail to see ahead far enough to realise that if declines in rural economies are a reason why manyare migrating and urbanisation is rapidly increasing then, the rural economies require boosting.

- Many of the problems and thus the solutions lie in the rural economies -

It is accepted that the international bodies (United Nations etc) do not have the ability to pull togetherthe resources required in order to be proactive instead of reactive and this is where these organisationfail the communities. Although many countries and area organisations come under the umbrella of theUnited Nations, few are able to gain support for areas at risk, as the United Nations views all as aglobal or regional situations and fails to acknowledge that the smaller area organisations could make atimely difference.

Eventually, the United Nations and its members will get around to taking some action, but the UnitedNations itself has very few physical human resources to be able to address the technical problemsthat will arise; although they do have many consultants and advisors. In order for the United Nationsand other organisations to be able to respond, the United Nations should create a pool of specialiststhat are able to go to areas where climates changes are likely to be severe, to set up and co-ordinate

projects from bio-engineering through community organisation and prior to this, should ensure thatthey not only train but also engage these specialists.


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Bio- engineering specialists Computer mapping specialists

Agriculturalists Urban planning engineers

Agricultural engineers Sanitary engineers

Food security planners and co-ordinators Waste disposal and re-cycling engineers

Foresters Human resource planners and managers

Potable water specialists Inter-project activity co-ordinators

Irrigation water specialists International community law specialistsMarine biologists Community development co-ordinators

Community environmental educators Tribal integrity specialists

Alternative energy production engineers Skill trainers

Alternative income developers Transport infrastructure engineers

Metrological specialists Pandemic medical response teams

Low cost housing engineers Farm to market distribution specialists

Farm to market transport specialists river-road Food diversity specialists

Domestic - wild animal buffer zone planners Migrant relocation planners and co-ordinators

Rainwater harvesting specialists Seawater desalination engineers

Urban zoning planners Delta protection specialistsEmployment opportunity specialists Sea defence specialists

Wildlife protection specialists Flora protection specialists

Soil erosion reduction specialists Liquefaction specialists

Poverty alleviation specialists

Advocacy specialists in community/government communications

Conflict resolution specialists low and medium conflicts

As can be seen, there are many skills required in order to ensure that the international organisationswill be able to respond to the needs and primary to the ability to respond the organisations need toensure that a global environmental mapping system is in place in order to be able to predict the mostlikely areas where support will be required.

- There are many arguments to be resolved before any resolution of the international lawregarding external migrants or displaced people can be settled -

However, wherever there are national boundaries to consider, there will be politics also to beconsidered. Not every country will wish to have international advisors taking control of environmentalsituations and it is likely that the politics together with funding issues will be the major problems thatwill arise. Given that it is likely that the United Nations will take overall control of determining thepriorities and for this to be successful, there needs to be linkages through from sourcing the resourcesto activating these resources in the field. To this end it is necessary to ensure that much of themanagement of these projects is in the hands of local people and if not enough are available to fulfilthe roles required, then training must take priority.


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There are many bodies that must be involved with the process of pro-acting or reacting to localisedclimate changes and although there is little likelihood of everything working well, the system must bemade to work, as many lives and lifestyles depend upon the success of this system. Of the priorities,the scientific bodies monitoring the changing climate state that to meet the needs of the projectedpopulation towards 2050, there needs to be an increase of 30% of potable water, a 40% in basic foodproduction and to meet these needs, there has to be an increase of 20% in irrigation water.

However, there is one problem that must be overcome if food production is to be increased to meet

the needs and this is, that there is a growing percentage of soil that is saline and the scientists haveestimated that a further 20% of land should be desalinated. Saline soil may be suitable for coconutproduction, but is damaging to most basic food crops. There is also the need to ensure that any newland opened for agricultural production must be environmentally sound.

To add to these shortages, there is already strong competition for cereals and protein foods betweenthe livestock feed industry and human food processors and this competition mustbe resolved. Withsome economies in developing countries improving, there is a greater demand for meat products andalso a greater demand for exotic foods; all of which add to carbon emissions and shortages at locallevels.

As local climates change, there will be a realisation that availability of certain commodities will bereduced, also keeping in mind that as the years go by, the world population is expanding beyond the

ability of existing commodities to satisfy the needs. Other than food crops, there are manycommodities that are essential for manufacturers to use in order to maintain and expand economies.Oils, base minerals and fibres are important and as can already be seen, some governments arepurchasing large tracts of land and mineral resources.

No individual wishes to return to the simplest of diets in order to save the planet and the richerwestern nations will again dominate the markets, probably making it less likely that the meats andexotic foods will be available to those in the marginal markets.

Commodity requirements:Oils:Ores:Copper Rare earths

Aluminium TinIron Rare metalsPhosphates PotashTrace elementsFibres:Jute CottonCopra AbacaAloe SkinsKapokCereals:Wheat RiceCorn (maize) Oats / Barley

Vegetable proteins:Soya SorghumLegumesMeat proteins:Marine fish BeefPork Goat & SheepVegetable roughage:Brassicas BeansSoft fruitsOther:Livestock grazing Forage trees / shrubsBananas / plantains Citrus fruits and nuts

In order to reduce some of the problems with displaced persons or migrants in a climate changesituation, it is necessary to put in place some restrictions beyond which it is unwise to go. In many


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areas a large influx of migrants will put great stress on public services and commodities and theseshould be avoided if possible. Thus, from the probable restrictions in place, a number of necessaryfacilities should be made available.

Allowing shanty towns to flourish will lead to many problems, although with many of the basics(above) available, the problems should be reduced. However, it is important for governments to realisethat many urban areas will be inundated by migrants and should put in place plans to provide newurban areas that have predetermined basic resources and small areas for homestead crop productionas these will [a] keep many occupied when job opportunities are low and [b] also help with homebudgets by providing some meats, fruits and vegetables.

- No one wishes to return to eating the simplest of basic foods and therefore, something must bedone to improve food production methods in a sustainable way and without destroying vast tracts

of forest which this planet needs in order to breathe -

Conclusion:

The clear conclusion of this small paper is that few if any solutions to the problems can beaccomplished and thus, the marginal and impoverished communities will be left to manage as bestthey can and it also becomes apparent that the gap between rich and poor nations and peoples willincrease and this alone is a potential trigger for mass conflict. It is accepted that internal migration is alot harder to control than cross-border migration and it seems that internal politics will be as much anissue as the climate change migration triggers and that any variable might be a potential spark that

may lead to civil conflict.It also becomes obvious that the problem is so large and diverse that the international organisations(both regional and global) will be powerless to come to the aid of the majority of human orenvironmental problems and moral concerns will take a back seat and perhaps millions ofimpoverished will be left to their own resources. If internal political conflict (i.e. the Arab Spring andother conflicts) can create so much humanitarian concern then it stands to reason that internalmigration, be it economically or climate change driven, will also cause mass humanitarian needs and itis proper to pose the question of who will have the capacity to respond proactively or reactively? TheUnited Nations and other co-operative bodies do not have the means to be able to respond, other thana few cases and this again points to the probability that the majority of the impoverished and marginalcommunities will be left to their own resources.

Thus, if the above is considered to be the most likely scenario, it stands to reason that the more thatcan be done to help the impoverished and marginal people to help themselves, the overall affect of theconsequences of climate change, migration and civil conflict can be lessened. Unless some form ofassistance is provided to the impoverished and marginal folk they might take active steps to take what

Food: AvailabilityPricePlaces of competitive purchasing

Water: Potable

IrrigationLand: Residential

Crop productionSeeds and fertiliser

Employment: Job opportunity

Job poolFood for work projects

Health services: HospitalsClinicsMaternalInfant and childDisease control

Crime control: Petty theftUrban gangs

Lifestyle: Kerosene availabilityPrimary education facilitiesSport and recreation facilities


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they want and no civil authority will be able to stop mass destruction of the environment in order thatthese folks can provide the basic needs by their own hands, thus creating a breakdown in civil law andorder in some places. There are morals attached to governments that are duty bound to provide thebasic necessities of daily living and having to control civil conflict over shortages is also a duty, butwhere to draw a line between that which is acceptable civil order and that which is over aggressive isyet to be determined but civil society (the ordinary folk) will not tolerate over-aggressive controlmethods. It should also be understood that to some degree the shareholders of large trading

corporations have to share the moral responsibility for some of the civil conflicts.- Without the provision of resources to allow the marginal and impoverished peoples to help

themselves the world leaders may see dramatic situations that are not morally acceptable to themajority of ordinary folk -

Taking this one step further, are governments likely to take active steps to improve and increase theability to react to civil conflict and if so, where does this leave the international law; given that therehave been no agreements regarding the legal status of cross border climate change displaced peopleor migrants within the United Nations or other leading international bodies.

This is all in the possible scenario that there will come a point in time when the proposed solutions tothe consequences of changes in climate will not be sufficient to alleviate the enormous problem ofwhat to do for the most at risk in order to avoid those at risk taking matters into their own hands.

This small paper shows the great concerns for the need to increase the provision of potable water andbasic foods and although some countries have purchased or leased large areas of foreign land forfood production, this is targeted for home consumption and not intended for the internationalcommodity markets. We may well see barter contracts for basic foods in exchange for raw orprocessed mineral resources.

- To meet civil conflict because of water or basic food shortages with increased aggressiveauthority will be morally wrong and unacceptable to the ordinary folk -

However, this paper does not address where the extra potable water and basic foods are to beresourced and thus, it becomes inherently obvious that there must be determined international co-operation in order to [a] provide the extra land required, [b] to develop the food crops to satisfy thebasic needs of the world, [c] to advance the skills required to produce higher yields on less land, [d] to

ensure that training is provided to ensure that in order to satisfy the basic needs, the systems are tobe sustainable and [e] that at the least to better ensure that the marginal and impoverished may helpthemselves better. For all of the much needed development required, it is necessary to ensure thatcommunities can act as one and for this, the advocacy skills are important and it is the smallindependent organisations that have shown the skills to achieve this.

In order to achieve the above and as predicted by scientists who have stated the amounts of bothpotable water and water for crop irrigation must be increased and some of this need must be realisedat household level in not only harvesting rainwater, but also to ensure that wastage is reduced.

Following on from the above, ordinary folk will be compelled to demand answers to the pertinentquestions as to what will be the primary triggers to show before the international organisations takeactions and what will these actions be? At what point does (real or perceived) localised climate

change itself become a trigger for local communities?

The United Nations and other organisations often describe migrants as displaced people and this termneeds to be qualified regarding climate change migrants. Migrants from climate change cannot alwaysbe referred to as displaced as the term displaced indicates a person who may relocate only becausedaily lifestyle as it is untenable and not through choice. It also becomes apparent that climate changemigrants are essentially economic migrants and in many cases will not be acceptable for aid projectsand this is where there definition of climate change migrant will have to be defined closely.

One of the major issues for authorities to attend to is uncertainty and attempting to explain the futureeffects of climate change on the planet in terms of probableor possibledoes not catch the attention ofthe ordinary folk and the enduring ambivalence becomes understandable.

- The consequences of climate change might be probabilities and possibilities only in any givenarea -


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Many folk will ask if these changes in climate are taking place, when did these changes start? Is this anew phenomenon or has this been going on for centuries or are these changes being monitored onlyfrom the mid 1900s and if so, why is it that these changes have appeared in the last sixty years? Theanswers to these questions go back many centuries, to when humans first started commercialagriculture and adding in a burgeoning population and industrialisation is using up the naturalresources faster than they can be replenished.

There is much to do to in order to gain the interest and support of the ordinary folk and will it be worth

talking in laymans language about what will probably happen to the children of future generations, asno one believes that tomorrow all will change.

Core Studies

June 2011

i

iAcknowledgments:

Abigail Mercado Independent Development Research Advisor - PhilippinesComprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture (2007)CIA World Fact BookWorld BankJustin S. Rubin American Security Project

climate change and ordinary folk 1

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