climate change and northern bobwhites: the state of our knowledge, possible outcomes, and the risk...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Climate Change and Northern Bobwhites: The State of Our Knowledge, Possible Outcomes, and the Risk of Ignorance James A. Martin Mississippi State University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f205503460f94c3864c/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Climate Change and Northern Bobwhites: The State of Our Knowledge, Possible Outcomes, and the Risk of Ignorance
James A. Martin Mississippi State University
![Page 2: Climate Change and Northern Bobwhites: The State of Our Knowledge, Possible Outcomes, and the Risk of Ignorance James A. Martin Mississippi State University](https://reader035.vdocuments.site/reader035/viewer/2022062517/56649f205503460f94c3864c/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Premise
• No perturbation has received as much public and scientific attention
• Climate change is a paradigm that includes ecological, climatic, and social processes
• Not trying to make you all into “believers”
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What is occurring?
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Weather & Bobwhites
• “As July temperature increased over the long-term mean, the number of bobwhites counted increased...but the relationship decelerated at high July temperatures...” -Lusk et al. 2001
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Weather and Bobwhites
• “High precipitation (mean annual precipitation = 90 cm) and mild temperature (mean max. Jul to Aug temp = 35.0° C) scenarios produced the greatest increases in bobwhite density, resulting in densities >5–6 bobwhite/ha...” -Rader et al. 2011
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Rader et al. 2011
The Journal of Wildlife ManagementVolume 75, Issue 1, pages 61-70, 31 JAN 2011 DOI: 10.1002/jwmg.4http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jwmg.4/full#fig4
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Weather & Bobwhites
• “Hatchability fluctuated among years, and variation in hatchability was partly explained by variability in summer temperature and precipitations.”—Rolland et al. 2010
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Martin and McConnell (in prep)
Latitude as a Climate Surrogate
25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 450
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
f(x) = 0.100376130014616 x + 9.54845881954762R² = 0.187045364976714
Latitude
Clut
ch S
ize
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Climate Change & Bobwhites
• No doubt NOBO respond to short-term weather patterns
• No doubt NOBO have an optimal climate (a niche)
• However, a great deal of uncertainty how bobwhites would respond (or currently responding) to climate change
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Why the uncertainty?
Christensen, J.H., B. Hewitson, A. Busuioc, A. Chen, X. Gao, I. Held, R. Jones, R.K. Kolli, W.-T. Kwon, R. Laprise, V. Magaña Rueda, L.Mearns, C.G. Menéndez, J. Räisänen, A. Rinke, A. Sarr and P. Whetton, 2007: Regional Climate Projections. In: Climate Change 2007:The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on ClimateChange [Solomon, S., D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt, M. Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.)]. Cambridge UniversityPress, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA
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Effects to other birds?Blackburnian Warbler
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• “Climate change altered community richness the most when species had narrow niches, ....With high interspecific dispersal variance, the best dispersers tracked climate change, out-competed slower dispersers and caused their extinction.” Urban et al. 2012
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Plant Shifts?
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What if?
• Bermuda grass outcompeted Fescue in Kentucky
• Fire ant distribution included Kansas
• West Texas had more frequent droughts
• It rained more in south Florida
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What do we do?
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Use of SDM and ARM
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What if we do nothing?
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Questions?