china gasiﬁcation market outlook - syngas · gasiﬁcation market outlook (to be added during...

China Gasification Market Outlook

Lei XIAASIACHEM Consulting

2011 Gasification Technologies ConferenceSan Francisco, U.S

Oct.10 2011

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© ASIACHEM 2011

Announcement• Based in Shanghai, China, focusing on coal chemical

industry, ASIACHEM is an independent consultancy.

• All the photos, data, if not mentioned, come from the public or non-confidential sources.

• The conclusions are the ASIACHEM’s study results, which are based on the industrial & market data.

• Syngas capacity: raw syngas - calculated by coal throughput of gasifiers; Syngas demands: clean syngas - estimated by the CO+H2 demand of products.

2© ASIACHEM 2011

Outline•Drives of Gasification in China

• Major Players & Key Projects

• China Domestic Gasification Processes

• Market Growth Potentials in 2011-2015

• Conclusions & Outlook

3© ASIACHEM 2011

Drives of Coal Gasification in China

• China: the 2nd largest economy & energy consumer; GDP: USD 3700 per capita; Population: 1.4 billion.

• A booming demand for liquid fuels - the largest automobile market; 18 million automobiles in 2010.

• A fast growing economy (annual GDP growth rate around 9%), regulated by the powerful central government and strongly driven by local government. 2011-2015: the 12th Five Year Plan period.

• Limited in oil and gas, but rich of coal resources, the dream of energy independent.

• Entry of attractive & profitable petrochemical sector; diversification of petrochemical feedstocks.

• The booming coal chemical industry is being driven by coal resources owners and local government.

4© ASIACHEM 2011

China’s Demand for Oil & Gas in 2020

• National Energy Administration estimates: China needs 600 million ton petroleum by 2020, domestic output 200 million ton, and import 400 million ton. Imported rate around 67%.

• PetroChina estimates: China needs 350-400 billion Nm3 natural gas by 2020, domestic conventional natural gas output 220-250 billion Nm3, and 130-150 billion Nm3 need to be supplied by other way.

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0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Oil Gas

Production Supplement

© ASIACHEM 2011

Fossil Energy Reserves in China

• China has 114.5 billion ton coal reserves, ranked No.3 worldwide

94%

1%5%

Oil Gas Coal

0

75

150

225

300

ChinaRussia

United States

6© ASIACHEM 2011

The Modern Coal Chemical in China

• In 2009, China central Government announced the Modern Coal Chemical 5 Demonstrations

• Background: China Economic Stimulus Package after financial crisis in 2008

• Demonstration Period: 2009 - 2011

‣ Coal to Liquids (CTL)

‣ Coal to Olefins (CTO)

‣ Coal to Dimethyl ether (DME)

‣ Coal to Synthetic Natural Gas (SNG)

‣ Coal to Mono ethyl glycol (MEG)

7© ASIACHEM 2011

The Modern Coal Chemical in China

• Based on Coal Gasification.

• Technologies innovation & commercialization: CTL, CTO, Coal to MEG, Coal to SNG etc.

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Coal Gasification Chemicals

Liquid fuels

SNG

Gasification is changing the game rule of petrochemical industry.

© ASIACHEM 2011

Outline• Drives of Gasification in China

•Major Players & Key Projects




9© ASIACHEM 2011

Shenhua’s 1 Mt/a direct CTL

• Project owner: Shenhua

• Gasification: Shell

• Coal throughput: 2*2200 TPD

• Syngas capacity: 300000 Nm3/h

• Location: Ordos, Inner Mongolia

• Startup: 2008

• Final products: Oil products

10© ASIACHEM 2011

Shenhua’s 600 kt/a CTO

• Project owner: Shenhua

• Gasification: GE

• Coal throughput: 7*1500 TPD (5+2)


• Location: Baotou, Inner Mongolia

• Startup: 2010

• Final products: PE, PP

11© ASIACHEM 2011

Shenhua Ningmei’s 500 kt/a CTO• Project owner: Shenhua

Ningmei

• Gasification: Siemens GSP



• Location: Yinchuan, Ningxia

• Startup: 2010

• Final products: PP

12© ASIACHEM 2011

Datang’s 460 kt/a CTO

• Project owner: Datang

• Gasification: Shell



• Location: Duolun, Inner Mongolia

• Startup: 2011

• Final products: PP

13© ASIACHEM 2011

Major Overseas Players in China

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0

1250000

2500000

3750000

5000000

GE Shell Siemens GSP BGL U-Gas Choren KBR TRIG

Syngas Capacity Nm3/h

Notes: Including constructed & contracted, as of Q3 2011;Data source: ASIACHEM

© ASIACHEM 2011

Outline• Drives of Gasification in China


•China Domestic Gasification Processes



15© ASIACHEM 2011

Overview of Domestic Gasifications• OMB CWS (ECUST OMB)

• HT-L Pulverized Coal (HT-L)

• Fixed-bed (Sedin Fixed-Bed)

• Multi-Components Slurry (MCSG)

• Two-stage Pulverized Coal (TPRI)

• Non-slag/slag Multi-stages (Tsinghua)

• etc...

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The development of local gasifications mostly owes to China’s ammonia/urea and methanol industry.

© ASIACHEM 2011

ECUST OMB as an Example

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Anhui Huayi 3*1500TPD(6.5MPa)

CH3OH

Shandong Jiutai 6*2000TPD(6.5MPa)

CH3OH, DME

Ningdong Shenda 2*2000TPD(6.5MPa)

CH3OH

Shenhua Ningmei 3*2000TPD(4.0MPa)

CH3OH

Yankuang Xinjiang 3*1500TPD(6.5MPa)

NH3, CH3OH

Yankuang Neimeng 3*2500TPD(6.5MPa)

CH3OH

Yankuang Cathy 3*1150TPD(4.0MPa) CH3OH, CO, IGCC

Xinneng Fenghuang 3*1500TPD(6.5MPa)

CH3OH

Yankuang Lunan 1*1150TPD(4.5MPa)

CH3OH

Jiangsu Sopo 3*1500TPD(6.5MPa)

CH3OH

Jiangsu Linggu 2*2000TPD(4.0MPa)

NH3

Ningbo Wanhua 3*1200TPD(6.5MPa)

CH3OH, NH3

Huadian Banshan 1*2200TPD(3.5MPa)

IGCC

Shanghai Cooking 2*2200TPD

CH3OH, CO

Baotou Fanhai 3*1500TPD(6.5MPa)

CH3OH

Hualu Hengsheng 1*750TPD(6.5MPa)

NH3

Shandong Haili 2*2000TPD(6.5MPa)

NH3

Anyang Yinde 2*2200TPD(4.2MPa)

NH3

Henan Xinlianxin 3*1200TPD(6.5MPa)

NH3

Yantai Wanhua 3*1500TPD(6.5MPa)

CH3OH, NH3

Neimeng Wuyuan 2*1200TPD(6.5MPa)

NH3

Qinghai Yanhu 3*2200TPD(6.5MPa)

CH3OH

Yankuang Yulin 8*2000TPD(4.0MPa)

CTL

Zhongyan Kunshan 2*1200TPD(6.5MPa)

NH3

‣ 25 projects(72 gasifiers), among 10 new projects in 2010‣ The capacity of all projects is ~80,000 TPD‣ The capacity of single gasifier is from 750 to 2500 TPD

Valero 5*2500TPD(6.5MPa)

H2

Data source: ECUST

© ASIACHEM 2011

SNG: Another Big Cake • 4 SNG projects officially approved by

the NDRC and under construction.

• Datang Chifeng SNG, 4 billion Nm3/a - Sedin Fixed-Bed

• Qinghua Yili SNG, 5.5 billion Nm3/a - Sedin Fixed-Bed

• Huineng Ordos SNG 1.6 billion Nm3/a - MCSG

• Datang Fuxin SNG, 4 billion Nm3/a - To be announced

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Up to 2010, total 15.1 billion Nm3/a SNG capacity approved in China (544 million MMBTU) ; the demand of Syngas (CO+H2) will be 4430000 Nm3/h.Note: Syngas demand estimates are based on Fixed-Bed GasificationData source: ASIACHEM

© ASIACHEM 2011

Major Domestic Players in China

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0

1250000

2500000

3750000

5000000

Sedin Fixed-Bed MCSG ECUST OMB HT-L Tsinghua TPRI

Syngas Capacity Nm3/h

Notes: Including constructed & contracted, as of Q3 2011;Data source: ASIACHEM

© ASIACHEM 2011

Gasification Market Shares in China

12%

7%

10%

12%

14%14%

15%

16%

20

• by syngas capacity

• including all constructed plants and contracted projects, as of Q3 2011

Data source: ASIACHEM

GESEDIN Fixed-bedMCSGECUSTSHELLHT-LSIEMENS GSPOTHERS

© ASIACHEM 2011

Outline

• Drives of Gasification in China



•Market Growth Potentials in 2011-2015


21© ASIACHEM 2011

Key Projects During 2011-2015

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Project owner Products Location Capacity kt/aSinopec CTO Bijie, Guizhou 600

Sinopec&HNCC CTO Hebi, Henan 600Total&CPI CTO Ordos, Inner

Mongolia1000

Yanchang&ChinaCoal CTO Yulin, Shaanxi 600ChinaCoal CTO Yulin, Shaanxi 600

Shaanxi Coal CTO Pucheng, Shaanxi 680Dow&Shenhua CTO Yulin, Shaanxi 1000

Yitai CTL Yili, Xinjiang 3600*Shenhua Ningmei CTL Yinchuan, Ningxia 4000

Yankuang/Yanchang CTL Yulin, Shaanxi 1000 *CPI SNG Yili, Xinjiang 2 billion Nm3 *

Datang SNG Fuxin, Liaoning 1.3 billion Nm3 *Xinwen SNG Yili, Xinjiang 2 billion Nm3 *

* the first stage of total project © ASIACHEM 2011

Key CTO Projects & Syngas Demands

23

0

175000

350000

525000

700000

Sinopec Sinopec/HNCC Total/CPI Yanchang/ChinaCoal ChinaCoal Shaanxi Coal Dow/Shenhua

Syngas Demands (CO+H2) Nm3/h

Note: Estimates are based on Coal Water Slurry GasificationData source: ASIACHEM

© ASIACHEM 2011

Key CTL Projects & Syngas Demands

24

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

Yitai Shenhua Ningmei Yankuang/Yanchang


Note: Estimates are based on Pulverized Coal GasificationData source: ASIACHEM

© ASIACHEM 2011

Key SNG Projects & Syngas Demands

25

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

CPI Datang Xinwen


Note: Estimates are based on Pulverized Coal (CPI) and Fixed-Bed Gasification (Datang & Xinwen)Data source: ASIACHEM

© ASIACHEM 2011

Other Potentials during 2011-2015

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• Other CTO, CTL & SNG Projects

• Coal to MEG

• Large scale Coal to Ammonia

• Coal to Methanol (except CTO)

• Coal to Ethanol

• Coal (Petcoke) based H2 Production

• IGCC

© ASIACHEM 2011

Gasification Market Outlook (to be added during 2011-2015)

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Products CapacityMt/a

Syngas Demands Nm3/h

Gasifiers

CTL 12 9,710,000 50

CTO 6 3,660,000 19

SNG 25 bn Nm3

8,710,000 45

Ammonia 13 4,471,000 23

Methanol (Ex-CTO)

10 2,290,000 12

MEG 3 1,500,000 8

Sum 30,341,000 157

Notes: Gasifiers benchmark - 3000 TPD Pulverized; Syngas Demands - estimated clean syngas (CO+H2) based on products capacities; Gasifiers - estimates based on raw syngas capacity; Coefficient of clean/raw syngas = 0.91

CTL

CTO

SNG

Ammonia

Methanol (Ex-CTO)

MEG

0 10 20 30 40 50

Gasifiers Demand

China’s 4 Oil & Gas Passages

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Based on Gasification, Coal Chemical is going to be China’s 5th oil & gas passage.

© ASIACHEM 2011

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Conclusions & Outlook• The drives of gasification booming in China: Economy growth,

energy demand, diversification of petrochemical feedstocks.

• China government will support the modern coal chemical (supplement of Oil & Gas shortage) in the future.

• ASIACHEM estimates: by 2015, to be add up: CTL 12 Mt/a; CTO 6 Mt/a; SNG 25 billion Nm3/a (or 900 million MMBTU); ammonia 13 Mt/a; Methanol (Ex-CTO) 10 Mt/a and MEG 3 Mt/a.

• More than 30 million Nm3/h NEW syngas demands.

• China is still the world largest gasification market by 2015, which will provide great opportunities for both overseas and local Gasification technologies, as well as the Air Separations.

© ASIACHEM 2011

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© ASIACHEM 2011

THANKS [email protected]

China Coal Chemical industry is full of questions,while ASIACHEM has the answers!

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