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Business Futures 2010

A Roux

(Editor)

October 2010

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This publication is confidential and reserved for use by Associates of the Institute for Futures Research only.

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Contents

© IFR Business Futures 2010

i

Contents

List of Figures ..................................................................................................................................................... vii

List of Tables .................................................................................................................................................... xiii

List of Exhibits .................................................................................................................................................... xviii

List of Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................................. xx

Acknowledgements ............................................................................................................................................. xxvii Institute for Futures Research Associates .......................................................................................................... xxviii Institute for Futures Research Personnel ............................................................................................................. xxx

Chapter 1: Thinking about the Future and Strategic Transformation

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................1-3

Business foresight .................................................................................................................................................1-4

Introduction: Strategy and futures thinking ...................................................................................................1-4

Barriers to a futures thinking mode ...............................................................................................................1-5

Forecasting, planning and strategy ...............................................................................................................1-8

The need for sound judgement and purposefulness.....................................................................................1-8

Knowledge and foresight ..............................................................................................................................1-9

Measuring and making the future ...............................................................................................................1-11

Conceptual frameworks for foresight .........................................................................................................1-11

Long-range forecasting: Methods and techniques ...............................................................................................1-17

Statistical forecasting/extrapolation ............................................................................................................1-18

Environmental scanning .............................................................................................................................1-19

Delphi studies .............................................................................................................................................1-23

Scenarios ...................................................................................................................................................1-23

Global certainties, uncertainties and challenges.........................................................................................1-26

Using the systems approach in thinking about the future ...................................................................................1-33

Systems and systems thinking ...................................................................................................................1-33

Idealised redesign ...............................................................................................................................................1-36

Idealised redesign defined .........................................................................................................................1-36

The process of idealised redesign .............................................................................................................1-36

The contributions of idealised redesign to organisational transformation ...................................................1-37

Managing complexity through corporate governance ..........................................................................................1-38

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................1-38

Corporate governance ................................................................................................................................1-38

Catalysts for change in corporate governance in South Africa ...................................................................1-39

The triple bottom line ..................................................................................................................................1-40

References .................................................................................................................................................1-40

Chapter 2: The Social Environment

Executive summary ...............................................................................................................................................2-3

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................2-4

Socio-political challenges: Development, democracy and diversity .......................................................................2-7

Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................2-7

Social identities, political maturity, equality and diversity ............................................................................2-10

Identities constructed; identities reconstructed; identities in flux.................................................................2-12

Race and issues of resource distribution ...................................................................................................2-19

Identity, nation-building and democracy .....................................................................................................2-29

Language ...................................................................................................................................................2-31

Movements of faith, religion and the world .................................................................................................2-36

Religion in the history of South Africa .........................................................................................................2-51

Religious disaffiliation and religious association: Global and national trends .............................................2-53

Families and society ...................................................................................................................................2-56

References .................................................................................................................................................2-65

Contents


ii

Human development: People are the real wealth of a nation ..............................................................................2-69

Understanding human development ...........................................................................................................2-69

The Human Development Reports and measuring human development ...................................................2-70

The links between human development and economic growth ..................................................................2-74

Human development in South Africa ..........................................................................................................2-75

Millennium Development Goals ..................................................................................................................2-78

Happiness and human development ......................................................................................................... 2082

References .................................................................................................................................................2-83

Demography ........................................................................................................................................................2-85

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................2-85

Global population trends .............................................................................................................................2-85

Sub-Saharan Africa and SADC population trends ......................................................................................2-95

South African population trends..................................................................................................................2-99

Implications of longer term demographic trends .......................................................................................2-109

Population policies ....................................................................................................................................2-111

References ...............................................................................................................................................2-112

Urbanisation ......................................................................................................................................................2-114

Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................2-114

Global urbanisation trends ........................................................................................................................2-114

African urbanisation trends .......................................................................................................................2-121

South African urbanisation trends .............................................................................................................2-125

Urban problems in the world and South Africa .........................................................................................2-129

Implications of urbanisation trends ...........................................................................................................2-136

Urban management and governance .......................................................................................................2-137

References ...............................................................................................................................................2-139

Health and health care ......................................................................................................................................2-141

Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................2-141

Health indicators .......................................................................................................................................2-141

Infectious disease patterns .......................................................................................................................2-152

Health care resources ..............................................................................................................................2-167

Implications of health trends .....................................................................................................................2-172

Health care policy .....................................................................................................................................2-173

References ...............................................................................................................................................2-175

Crime and violence ............................................................................................................................................2-179

Global crime trends ..................................................................................................................................2-179

Crime trends in Africa ...............................................................................................................................2-184

Crime trends in South Africa .....................................................................................................................2-187

The South African criminal justice system ................................................................................................2-195

The South African correctional services ...................................................................................................2-197

Initiatives to prevent and combat crime and violence in South Africa .......................................................2-198

References ...............................................................................................................................................2-202

Education and training .......................................................................................................................................2-205

Introduction: Why is education and training important? ............................................................................2-205

Global and regional education trends .......................................................................................................2-205

South African education and training trends .............................................................................................2-216

Socio-economic implications ....................................................................................................................2-236

Education policy developments ................................................................................................................2-241

References ...............................................................................................................................................2-245

Chapter 3: The Political Environment


A globalising, world: Opportunities, security threats and South Africa ...................................................................3-6

Introduction: Globalisation and globalism .....................................................................................................3-6

Trends ........................................................................................................................................................3-11

Issues .........................................................................................................................................................3-15

Inequality and the marginalisation of the majority world .............................................................................3-21

Democracy .................................................................................................................................................3-23

(In)Stability and social cohesion .................................................................................................................3-25

Contents


iii

Policy choices .............................................................................................................................................3-26

Key countries and global re-polarisation? ...................................................................................................3-28

South Africa’s external relations ..........................................................................................................................3-37

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................3-37

South Africa’s foreign policy: Issues and uncertainties ...............................................................................3-38

Relations in Southern Africa .......................................................................................................................3-53

SADC as a regional integrative initiative .....................................................................................................3-54

Africa and the future ............................................................................................................................................3-56

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................3-56

Historical considerations .............................................................................................................................3-56

African initiatives .........................................................................................................................................3-58

Democratisation and human rights in Africa ...............................................................................................3-65

South Africa and the developmental state ...........................................................................................................3-72

The South African transition .......................................................................................................................3-72

A South African developmental state ..........................................................................................................3-74

South Africa and democratic consolidation .................................................................................................3-78

The provincial political environment in South Africa ...................................................................................3-86

Local government transformation ...............................................................................................................3-90

Black economic empowerment ...................................................................................................................3-97

Land reform ................................................................................................................................................3-99

References ...............................................................................................................................................3-105

Chapter 4: The Technological Environment


The nature and importance of technology .............................................................................................................4-5

Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................4-5

Technological change and forecasting: The technology ‘S’-curve and curves of growth .............................4-7

Technological innovation and the competitive advantage of nations ............................................................4-8

Does a better technological situation lead to increased wealth and a better standard

of living? ................................................................................................................................................4-10

Infrastructural indicators .............................................................................................................................4-11

The strategic management of technology ............................................................................................................4-14

Why manage technology? ..........................................................................................................................4-14

The management of technology .................................................................................................................4-15

Responsibility for technology management ................................................................................................4-16

The enabling and new technologies: Developments and trends ............................................................................4-18

Technological progress and technological transformations ........................................................................4-18

The enabling and new technologies ...........................................................................................................4-20

Information and communication technologies ......................................................................................................4-23

Biotechnology, genetic engineering and proteomics ............................................................................................4-36

Materials technologies .........................................................................................................................................4-44

Emerging energy technologies ............................................................................................................................4-50

Transport technologies ........................................................................................................................................4-56

Environmentalism ................................................................................................................................................4-59

Africa’s and South Africa’s position in R&D: Expenditure and manpower ...........................................................4-61

Expenditure on R&D ...................................................................................................................................4-62

S&T in Africa – indicators and observations ...............................................................................................4-63

Science and technology research excellence at South African institutions ................................................4-66

Centres of excellence .................................................................................................................................4-67

Skilled manpower .......................................................................................................................................4-68

Science and technology policy ............................................................................................................................4-71

Technology policy: Purpose and definition .................................................................................................4-71

Key points regarding national science and technology policies ..................................................................4-71

Science and technology policy in South Africa ...........................................................................................4-72

South Africa is implementing a national technology strategy, but challenges remain .................................4-81

References ..........................................................................................................................................................4-82

Contents


iv

Chapter 5: Natural Environment


Land Resources ....................................................................................................................................................5-5

Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................5-5

Land-use patterns and change .....................................................................................................................5-5

Climate change and African agriculture ......................................................................................................5-14

Food production trends in South Africa ......................................................................................................5-16

Food security trends ...................................................................................................................................5-19

Policy action to achieve food security for all ...............................................................................................5-24

Land reform ................................................................................................................................................5-27

Grasslands and forest resources ................................................................................................................5-30

References .................................................................................................................................................5-36

Water Resources .................................................................................................................................................5-39

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................5-39

Global water resources ...............................................................................................................................5-39

South Africa’s water resources ...................................................................................................................5-45

Water resource management and policy ....................................................................................................5-52

Implications and conclusion ........................................................................................................................5-56

References .................................................................................................................................................5-57

Ocean and fish resources ....................................................................................................................................5-60

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................5-60

Global fish resources ..................................................................................................................................5-60

South Africa’s fish resources ......................................................................................................................5-67

South Africa’s estuaries ..............................................................................................................................5-71

References .................................................................................................................................................5-72

Mineral resources ................................................................................................................................................5-74

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................5-74

The global economy: From crisis to recovery .............................................................................................5-75

The mining industry growth, development and employment task team ......................................................5-83

Contribution of mining to the economy of South Africa ...............................................................................5-86

References .................................................................................................................................................5-89

Energy resources ................................................................................................................................................5-91

Introduction .................................................................................................................................................5-91

Total energy................................................................................................................................................5-92

Oil ...............................................................................................................................................................5-95

Coal ............................................................................................................................................................5-97

Natural gas .................................................................................................................................................5-98

Uranium and nuclear energy ......................................................................................................................5-99

Renewable energy ....................................................................................................................................5-100

Electricity ..................................................................................................................................................5-106

Energy security in the South African context ............................................................................................5-108

Energy legislation in South Africa .............................................................................................................5-110

Global climate change and energy use ....................................................................................................5-110

References ...............................................................................................................................................5-114

Biodiversity ........................................................................................................................................................5-116

Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................5-116

Global biodiversity loss .............................................................................................................................5-117

Biodiversity futures for the 21st century .....................................................................................................5-122

Biodiversity in Africa .................................................................................................................................5-123

Biodiversity in South Africa .......................................................................................................................5-123

Biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration ...............................................................................5-126

Ecotourism................................................................................................................................................5-129

References ...............................................................................................................................................5-130

Waste and pollution ...........................................................................................................................................5-132

Introduction: Increasing pollution ..............................................................................................................5-132

The world’s worst pollution problems ........................................................................................................5-132

Solid waste ...............................................................................................................................................5-137

Water pollution ..........................................................................................................................................5-142

Atmospheric (air) pollution ........................................................................................................................5-149

Noise pollution ..........................................................................................................................................5-157

Contents


v

Space pollution .........................................................................................................................................5-158

Light pollution ...........................................................................................................................................5-158

Legislation for the management of waste .................................................................................................5-159

Commercial opportunities in the management of waste and pollution ......................................................5-161

References ...............................................................................................................................................5-165

Global climate change .......................................................................................................................................5-171

Introduction ...............................................................................................................................................5-171

Background ..............................................................................................................................................5-171

Driving forces: Greenhouse gas emissions ..............................................................................................5-172

Radiative forcing .......................................................................................................................................5-173

Observable changes in the environment ..................................................................................................5-174

Climate change trends ..............................................................................................................................5-175

Impacts of climate change ........................................................................................................................5-177

Climate change and risk ...........................................................................................................................5-180

Business exposure to climate change and associated risks .....................................................................5-181

Sector-specific impacts of global climate change .....................................................................................5-185

Dangers of abrupt climate change ............................................................................................................5-188

Possible impacts of extreme or abrupt climate changes ...........................................................................5-189

The current state of the carbon market .....................................................................................................5-190

Mitigation: Biofuels and renewables .........................................................................................................5-191

The governance of climate change ...........................................................................................................5-191

South African national strategy on climate change ...................................................................................5-200

Long-term mitigation scenarios: Strategic options for South Africa ..........................................................5-201

Climate change politics .............................................................................................................................5-202

Concluding remarks ..................................................................................................................................5-203

References ...............................................................................................................................................5-203

Environmental scenarios for South and Southern Africa ...................................................................................5-208

Environmental scenarios for South Africa .................................................................................................5-208

Four possible environmental futures .........................................................................................................5-208

Lessons and guidelines ............................................................................................................................5-211

Conclusion ................................................................................................................................................5-211

Environmental scenarios for Southern Africa ...........................................................................................5-212

Market Forces Scenario ...........................................................................................................................5-212

Policy Reform Scenario ............................................................................................................................5-216

The Fortress World Scenario ....................................................................................................................5-218

References ...............................................................................................................................................5-221

Chapter 6: The Economic Environment


Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................6-4

Economics and strategy ...............................................................................................................................6-4

Layout of the chapter ....................................................................................................................................6-5

The global context ................................................................................................................................................6-6

The broad structure of the world economy ...................................................................................................6-6

The benefits of global economic integration .................................................................................................6-8

The more negative view of global economic integration .............................................................................6-10

‘Winners’ and ‘losers’ in globalisation .........................................................................................................6-12

The 2008/2009 financial and economic meltdown: From crisis to hesitant recovery ..................................6-14

Opportunities, challenges and risks in the global economic and financial system ......................................6-16

SA is not immune to global economic headwinds: New challenges and new imperatives ..........................6-18

Outcomes and implications.........................................................................................................................6-20

The African context ..............................................................................................................................................6-22

Africa: Reasons for poor economic performance ........................................................................................6-22

South Africa in Africa ..................................................................................................................................6-24

Prospects for Africa ....................................................................................................................................6-26

The changing structure of the South African economy ...............................................................................6-28

More prudent fiscal policy since the mid-1990s ..........................................................................................6-30

Monetary policy remains tight .....................................................................................................................6-32

A structurally higher economic growth path? ..............................................................................................6-34

Inflation .......................................................................................................................................................6-36

Contents


vi

Household income trends ...........................................................................................................................6-38

Household consumption trends ..................................................................................................................6-40

Gross fixed capital formation ......................................................................................................................6-42

Economic infrastructure ..............................................................................................................................6-44

The balance of payments: Current account ................................................................................................6-46

The balance of payments: Financial account .............................................................................................6-48

The balance of payments: Foreign exchange reserves ..............................................................................6-50

The exchange rate ......................................................................................................................................6-52

Unemployment: The basic figures ..............................................................................................................6-54

Unemployment: Causes .............................................................................................................................6-56

Unemployment: Prospects .........................................................................................................................6-58

Poverty .......................................................................................................................................................6-60

The growing black African middle-class .....................................................................................................6-62

Inequality and service delivery....................................................................................................................6-64

Labour unions and industrial relations: International trends .......................................................................6-66

Labour unions and industrial relations: Labour market flexibility and unemployment .................................6-68

Labour unions and industrial relations: Key indicators influencing the labour landscape in South Africa ...6-70

Labour unions and industrial relations: Possible future developments and trends .....................................6-72

Capital deepening .......................................................................................................................................6-74

The quality of labour ...................................................................................................................................6-76

Productivity .................................................................................................................................................6-78

Provincial overview .....................................................................................................................................6-80

The two economies of South Africa ............................................................................................................6-82

Economic policy challenges........................................................................................................................6-84

The accelerated and shared growth initiative of South Africa .....................................................................6-86

References ..........................................................................................................................................................6-88

Chapter 7: Sustainable Development


Sustainable development ......................................................................................................................................7-5

The concept of sustainable development .....................................................................................................7-5

Related concepts of resilience, adaptability and transformability in social-ecological systems ..................7-10

Systemic unsustainability ...........................................................................................................................7-11

Unsustainable trends: Patterns identified by the IFR ..................................................................................7-12

High-level panel on global sustainability .....................................................................................................7-15

National strategies for sustainable development ........................................................................................7-15

Business and sustainable development .....................................................................................................7-18

The evolution of sustainability reporting .....................................................................................................7-23

Sustainability, strategy and innovation .......................................................................................................7-25

Towards a more sustainable future: Transition to a new sustainability paradigm .......................................7-29

References .................................................................................................................................................7-31

List of Figures


vii

List of Figures


Figure 1.1: Images of the future ................................................................................................................... 1-8

1.2: A classification of knowledge about the future ........................................................................... 1-9

1.3: Different kinds of futures .......................................................................................................... 1-11

1.4: Long-term cycles as a basis for business foresight .................................................................. 1-13

1.5: The life cycle of evolution ......................................................................................................... 1-14

1.6: A hierarchy of influence and control in the environment of an organisation ............................. 1-19

1.7: Multiple perspectives in environmental scanning ..................................................................... 1-20

1.8: Assumption plotting graph: Importance and certainty .............................................................. 1-22

1.9: Corporate governance and related terminology ....................................................................... 1-38


Figure 2.1: The five interdependent dimensions of redesigning social systems and defining

the state of social systems (SSS) .......................................................................................... 2-4

2.2: Integration (homogenisation) and differentiation as necessary qualities of societal

development .......................................................................................................................... 2-6

2.3: Representation of employees at senior management level by race and sex, 2000-2008 ........ 2-21

2.4: South Africa’s home languages, 2001 ...................................................................................... 2-33

2.5: Christian growth per continent, 1900-1995 .............................................................................. 2-50

2.6: Discrepancies in HDI and income for South Africa, Namibia and Brazil ................................... 2-74

2.7: Size and annual population growth rates of the world population, 1950-2050 ......................... 2-86

2.8: Population size and annual population growth rates of more and less developed regions,

1950-2050 ............................................................................................................................. 2-86

2.9: Countries with the highest projected annual net migration gains, 2005-2050 .......................... 2-90

2.10: Countries with the highest projected annual net migration losses, 2005-2050 ......................... 2-90

2.11: Major refugee hosting countries, end 2009 .............................................................................. 2-91

2.12: Proportion of children and older people in the world, 1950-2050 ............................................. 2-91

2.13: World population age pyramids, 1950, 2010 and 2050 ............................................................ 2-92

2.14: The population of Europe and Africa by broad age groups, 1950-2050 ................................... 2-93

2.15: Annual population growth rates in sub-Saharan Africa, 2005-2015 ......................................... 2-97

2.16: Sex composition in South Africa during census years 1904-2001, with projections

to 2040 .............................................................................................................................. 2-101

2.17: Ranking of provinces by projected population growth rates, 2006-2010 and 2036-2040 ....... 2-103

2.18: Population age pyramid of the South African population, 2010 and 2040 .............................. 2-105

2.19: Ranking of provinces by percentage children, adults aged 15-64 and older persons,

2010 and 2040 .................................................................................................................. 2-106

2.20: South Africa: Net migration gains and losses, 1940-2003 ...................................................... 2-107

2.21: Brain drain and gain in South Africa, 1940-2003 .................................................................... 2-107

2.22: Estimated internal migration in South Africa, 2001-2006 and 2006-2011 .............................. 2-108

2.23: Official deportation of illegal immigrants by South Africa, 1994-2009 .................................... 2-108

2.24: Urban and rural populations of the world, 1950-2050 ............................................................ 2-114

2.25: Urban populations of more and less developed regions, 1950-2050 ..................................... 2-115

2.26: Rural populations of more and less developed regions, 1950-2050....................................... 2-116

2.27: Urbanisation levels of major regions, 1950, 2010 and 2050 .................................................. 2-117

2.28: The world’s 10 largest urban agglomerations, 1950, 1995, 2010 and 2025 ........................... 2-119

2.29: Urban population distribution of the world and more and less developed regions by urban

settlement size, 1970, 2010 and 2025............................................................................... 2-120

2.30: Urban and rural populations of Africa, 1950-2050 .................................................................. 2-121

2.31: Urban and rural populations in South Africa, 1950-2050 ........................................................ 2-126

2.32: Urbanisation levels in South Africa by population group, 1904-2008 ..................................... 2-127

2.33: Ranking of provinces by urbanisation level, 2008 .................................................................. 2-127

2.34: Actual and estimated size of South Africa’s largest cities ...................................................... 2-128

2.35: Annual population growth rates of South Africa’s largest cities, 1970-1996 and

2001-2007 ........................................................................................................................... 2-129

List of Figures


viii

2.36: Slum population as percentage of urban population by region, 2010 ..................................... 2-130

2.37: Proportion of urban populations without access to improved drinking-water sources

and sanitation, 2008 .......................................................................................................... 2-132

2.38: Percentage of households in South Africa’s nine largest cities without water on site,

2001 and 2007 .................................................................................................................. 2-133

2.39: Percentage of households in South Africa’s nine largest cities with VIP toilets or

less, 2001 and 2007 .......................................................................................................... 2-133

2.40: Percentage of households in South Africa’s nine largest cities without refuse collection,

2001 and 2007 .................................................................................................................. 2-134

2.41: Life expectancy at birth in African countries, 2005-2015 ........................................................ 2-142

2.42: Projected life expectancy at birth in South Africa by population group, 1985-2040 ................ 2-144

2.43: Crude mortality rates in African countries, 2010-2015............................................................ 2-144

2.44: Percentage distribution of age at death by region, 2004 ........................................................ 2-145

2.45: Percentage distribution of cause of death by region, 2004 ..................................................... 2-146

2.46: Projected crude death rates in South Africa by population group, 1985-2040........................ 2-148

2.47: Child mortality rates in African countries, 2010-2015 ............................................................. 2-151

2.48: Projected child mortality rates in South Africa by population group, 1985-2040..................... 2-151

2.49: Malaria incidence in the world, 2006 ...................................................................................... 2-153

2.50: Annual notifications of malaria in South Africa, 1990-2007 .................................................... 2-154

2.51: Number of notified TB cases in South Africa, 1995-2008 ....................................................... 2-156

2.52: Ranking of provinces by TB incidence, 2007 ......................................................................... 2-156

2.53: HIV prevalence among adults, 2009 ...................................................................................... 2-158

2.54: HIV prevalence in antenatal clinic attenders in South Africa, 1990-2008 ............................... 2-159

2.55: Estimated HIV prevalence in antenatal clinic attenders by age in South Africa,

2006-2008 ......................................................................................................................... 2-160

2.56: The ‘waves’ of the AIDS epidemic in South Africa according to the ASSA2003-model,

1990-2030 ......................................................................................................................... 2-161

2.57: Projected population age structure with and without the AIDS epidemic in

South Africa, 2025 ............................................................................................................. 2-162

2.58: Impact of HIV/AIDS on a business ......................................................................................... 2-164

2.59: Conceptual framework for the impact of HIV/AIDS on the health sector ................................ 2-166

2.60: Membership of restricted and open medical schemes in South Africa, 1990-2008 ................ 2-170

2.61: Trends in the number of beneficiaries, 1997-2008 ................................................................. 2-171

2.62: Risk and medical savings accounts contributions and claims per beneficiary per

month for registered schemes, 2000-2008 ......................................................................... 2-171

2.63: South African health expenditure, 1990-2013 ........................................................................ 2-172

2.64: Six sectors and institutions most affected by corruption in sub-Saharan Africa and the

total sample according to the TI Global Corruption Barometer 2009 ................................. 2-183

2.65: Number of reported piracy attacks, 2004-2009 ...................................................................... 2-186

2.66: Total recorded crime rates in South Africa, 1994/1995 to 2008/2009 .................................... 2-188

2.67: Reported number of murder cases and murder rates in South Africa, 1994/1995 to

2008/2009 ......................................................................................................................... 2-188

2.68: Reported number of attempted murder cases and attempted murder rates in South

Africa, 1994/1995 to 2008/2009 ........................................................................................ 2-189

2.69: Reported number of sexual offence cases and sexual offence rates in South Africa,

2003/2004 to 2008/2009 .................................................................................................. 2-190

2.70: Reported number of violent robbery cases and violent robbery rates in South Africa,

1994/1995 to 2008/2009 ................................................................................................... 2-190

2.71: The ‘trio crimes’ in South Africa, 2002/2003 to 2008/2009 ..................................................... 2-191

2.72: Reported number of violent assault cases and violent assault rates in South Africa,

1994/1995 to 2008/2009 ................................................................................................... 2-191

2.73: Property-related crime rates in South Africa, 1994/1995 to 2008/2009 .................................. 2-192

2.74: Ranking of provinces by commercial crime rates, 1994/1995 and 2008/2009 ....................... 2-193

2.75: Attacks and murders on farms and smallholdings, 1991 to 2006/2007 .................................. 2-195

2.76: Number of cases to court, withdrawn, prosecuted and convicted, 1996-2008/2009 .............. 2-195

2.77: Origin of mobile students, 2007 .............................................................................................. 2-215

2.78: Number of learners enrolled in primary education and the potential primary school-age

population, 2000-2008 ....................................................................................................... 2-221

2.79: Number of learners enrolled in primary education by grade and the potential primary

school-age population, 2008 ............................................................................................. 2-221

2.80: Number of learners enrolled in secondary education and the potential secondary

school-age population, 2000-2008 .................................................................................... 2-223

List of Figures


ix

2.81: Number of learners enrolled in secondary education by grade and the potential

secondary school-age population, 2008 ............................................................................ 2-223

2.82: Number of grade 12 learners enrolled vs the potential grade 12 population, 2000-2009 ....... 2-224

2.83: Throughput of learners from grade 10 to grade 12 ................................................................. 2-224

2.84: Number of grade 12 learners enrolled and writing exam, 2000-2009 ..................................... 2-224

2.85: Number of grade 12 learners writing matric exam, passing matric and pass rate,

2000-2009 ......................................................................................................................... 2-225

2.86: Number of grade 12 learners passing matric, passing with endorsement and

endorsement rate, 2000-2009 ........................................................................................... 2-226

2.87: Enrolment by gender at public higher education institutions, 1986-2008 ................................ 2-231

2.88: Enrolment by race at public higher education institutions, 1986-2008 .................................... 2-231

2.89: Number of students enrolled at public higher education institutions by major field of

study, 2001-2008 ................................................................................................................ 2-232

2.90: Number of graduates/diplomates at public higher education institutions by major

field of study, 2001-2008 ................................................................................................... 2-232

2.91: Tertiary throughput rate, first-year class of 2002 .................................................................... 2-233

2.92: Schematic presentation of the South African 18-24 year-old cohort in need of

post-school education, 2007 .............................................................................................. 2-235


Figure 3.1: Export performance by key destination .................................................................................... 3-42


Figure 4.1: The technology S-curve ............................................................................................................. 4-7

4.2: The curve of growth for a given technology................................................................................ 4-8

4.3: Technological substitutions as shown by multiple curves of growth ........................................... 4-8

4.4: Share of world wealth by type of country – illustrating the role of human resources

and thus innovation in contributing to wealth ........................................................................ 4-9

4.5: The relationship between productivity and national wealth for selected countries, 2006 ........ 4-10

4.6: The dependence of wealth on technology ................................................................................ 4-10

4.7: The dependence of living standards on technology ................................................................. 4-10

4.8: The importance of national education in applying technology for competitive advantage ........ 4-11

4.9: Links between technology, economic growth and human development ................................... 4-13

4.10: Forces that affect competition .................................................................................................. 4-14

4.11 Technology management ......................................................................................................... 4-15

4.12: The technology life cycle .......................................................................................................... 4-17

4.13: The effect of technological transformations on the world population ........................................ 4-18

4.14: Minimum integrated circuit line size (in production), actual and forecast ................................. 4-23

4.15: Growth in telephone lines and cellular phone subscribers worldwide ...................................... 4-26

4.16: The growth of the Internet in number of hosts .......................................................................... 4-29

4.17: Telephone penetration in Africa per 100 people....................................................................... 4-33

4.18: Africa telecoms services and infrastructure markets – analysis and forecasts ......................... 4-33

4.19: Global plantings of genetically modified crops, 1995-2009 and trend ...................................... 4-40

4.20: Worldwide spending on nanotechnology, 2004-2010 ............................................................... 4-47

4.21: Global clean-energy projected growth, 2008-2018................................................................... 4-50

4.22: Forecast of world traffic volumes .............................................................................................. 4-56

4.23: R&D per capita as a function of GDP per capita (PPP) for 51 selected countries ................... 4-62

4.24: The trend in R&D expenditure, South Africa ............................................................................ 4-63

4.25: Royalty payments to and receipts from overseas countries by South Africa ............................ 4-65

4.26: Distribution of R&D expenditure by broad discipline in South Africa for 2004/5

2005/6 and 2006/7 .............................................................................................................. 4-65

4.27: R&D workforce in South Africa by race and gender, 2007 ...................................................... 4-68

4.28: Overview of the national government’s Science and Technology System ............................... 4-73

List of Figures


x

Chapter 5: The Natural Environment

Figure 5.1: The trend in arable land used globally, 1700-1990 .................................................................... 5-7

5.2: Land use for field crop and horticultural production in Africa, 1961-2008 ................................. 5-11

5.3: Yields for the major field crops in Africa, 1961-2008 ................................................................ 5-11

5.4: Total and per capita agricultural production in Africa, 1964-2006 ............................................ 5-11

5.5: Index of per capita agricultural production in Africa by region, 1964-2006 ............................... 5-11

5.6: Index of per capita food production in Africa by region, 1964-2006 ......................................... 5-11

5.7: Index of per capita cereal production in Africa by region, 1964-2006 ....................................... 5-12

5.8: Africa’s food imports and exports, 1961-2006 .......................................................................... 5-12

5.9: Africa’s net imports of wheat and maize, 1961-2006 ................................................................ 5-12

5.10: Africa’s net imports of processed field crops, 1961-2006 ......................................................... 5-12

5.11: Africa’s net imports of meat, 1961-2006 ................................................................................... 5-13

5.12: Africa’s net imports of selected high value agricultural products, 1961-2006 ........................... 5-13

5.13: Real gross value of field crops ................................................................................................. 5-17

5.14: Real gross value of animal products ........................................................................................ 5-17

5.15: Real gross income of the agricultural sector ............................................................................ 5-17

5.16: Real intermediate input expenditure ......................................................................................... 5-18

5.17 Real gross value added of the agricultural sector .................................................................... 5-18

5.18: Real net farming income .......................................................................................................... 5-18

5.19: Real agricultural debt ............................................................................................................... 5-19

5.20: Number of undernourished people in the major developing regions, 2004/06 and 2009 ......... 5-20

5.21: Low-income food-deficit countries, Nov 2006........................................................................... 5-20

5.22: Distribution of the world’s grasslands ....................................................................................... 5-30

5.23: Designated functions of forests, 2010 ...................................................................................... 5-32

5.24: Projected global freshwater stress and scarcity, 1990-2050 .................................................... 5-41

5.25: Freshwater stress and scarcity in Africa, 2025 ......................................................................... 5-42

5.26: Global annual freshwater withdrawals by sector, 1900-2025 ................................................... 5-43

5.27: Water consumption in South Africa by sector, 2000 ................................................................. 5-49

5.28: Global fish production, 1950-2009 ........................................................................................... 5-60

5.29: Ten leading countries in marine and freshwater fisheries production, 2008 ............................. 5-61

5.30: Ten leading countries in aquaculture production, 2008 ............................................................ 5-63

5.31: Annual demersal and pelagic fishery catches in South African coastal waters,

1990-2008 ........................................................................................................................... 5-67

5.32: Annual rock lobster catches in South African coastal waters, 1965-2008 ................................ 5-68

5.33: Aquaculture production in South Africa, 1996-2008 ................................................................. 5-69

5.34: Economic growth in key regions, 2001-2015............................................................................ 5-75

5.35: World economic growth trends, 1998-2011 .............................................................................. 7-75

5.36: Growth rates in world trade in goods and services, year-on-year and

quarter-on-quarter, 2002-2010 ............................................................................................ 5-76

5.37 Composite leading indicator for key economies, 2006-2010 .................................................... 5-76

5.38: Global manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index, 2006-2010............................................... 5-76

5.39: Global steel production 2007-2010 .......................................................................................... 5-77

5.40: Unemployment rates in the industrialised countries, 2006-2010 .............................................. 5-77

5.41: Government structural fiscal deficits as percentage of GDP, 2001-2015 ................................. 5-78

5.42: Gross government debt as percentage of GDP, 2001-2015 .................................................... 5-78

5.43: Commodity prices, recovery after the 2009 crash, 2005-2011 ................................................. 5-78

5.44: Economist’s All Metals Index, US$ terms, base indexed, Oct 2001 to Aug 2010 ..................... 5-78

5.45: World’s urbanised population, 1950-2050 ................................................................................ 5-79

5.46: China’s urban population, 2005 and 2025 ................................................................................ 5-79

5.47: China’s share of global commodity demand............................................................................. 5-79

5.48: World investment trends, gross fixed capital formation as percentage of GDP,

1990-2011 ........................................................................................................................... 5-79

5.49: Large-scale non-ferrous global exploration, 1991-2009 ........................................................... 5-80

5.50: PWC survey of top 40 mining companies, 2003, 2009 ............................................................. 5-81

5.51: Capital investment by top 40 mining companies by commodity, 2008-2009 ............................ 5-81

5.52: Industry value creation in South Africa and the world, 2001-2008, real compound

annual growth rate percentages .......................................................................................... 5-82

5.53: Global in situ mineral resource holders, US$ value .................................................................. 5-83

5.54: Projected mineral weighted production of the South African mining sector, 2010-2020 ........... 5-84

5.55: South African reserves of key minerals, 2008 .......................................................................... 5-84

5.56: Competitiveness drivers of South Africa’s mining sector .......................................................... 5-85

List of Figures


xi

5.57: income and expenditure of the SA mining industry, 2009 ........................................................ 5-87

5.58: GDP per sector, 1993-2009 ..................................................................................................... 5-88

5.59: World primary energy consumption, 1999-2009 ....................................................................... 5-92

5.60: World energy intensity by region, reference case scenario, 2007-2035 ................................... 5-93

5.61: World energy-related CO2 emissions by region, 2007-2035 .................................................... 5-93

5.62: Primary energy consumption in South Africa, 2009 ................................................................. 5-93

` 5.63: The Low Carbon Competitiveness Index ................................................................................. 5-94

5.64: Current (2009) proved oil reserves, OPEC and non-OPEC ..................................................... 5-96

5.65: South African oil production and consumption, 1988-2008 ...................................................... 5-96

5.66: World consumption of hydroelectricity and other renewables in the context of all

other sources of energy, 2007 to 2035 .............................................................................. 5-101

5.67: Renewable energy’s share of global final energy consumption, 2008 .................................... 5-103

5.68: World electricity generating capacity by source, 2008 ........................................................... 5-103

5.69: Projected global growth in the clean energy industry, 2009-2019 .......................................... 5-103

5.70: South Africa’s electricity capacity and demand outlook, 2006-2026 ....................................... 5-108

5.71: Economic cost of outages in selected countries ..................................................................... 5-109

5.72: Forecast liquid fuels supply shortfall for South Africa, 2008-2030 .......................................... 5-109

5.73 Sector contribution to total GHG emissions, 2000 .................................................................. 5-111

5.74: Sectoral contribution to fuel combustion emissions ................................................................ 5-111

5.75: Scope 1 & 2 emissions by company: CDP 2009 vs CDP6 (2008), in tonnes of CO2-eq ........ 5-113

5.76: Linking biodiversity to human well-being ................................................................................ 5-116

5.78: The Living Planet Index, terrestrial, marine and freshwater LPIs, 1970-2005 ........................ 5-119

5.79: The Red List Index for corals, birds, mammals and amphibians, 1980-2010 ......................... 5-120

5.80: Disability-adjusted life years attributed to environmental health risks .................................... 5-136

5.81: Municipal waste per person, kg per capita for 2007, or latest available year ......................... 5-138

5.82: ‘Top ten’ marine debris items globally (1989-2007 combined) ............................................... 5-147

5.83: Quantities of oil spilled, 1970 to 2009 .................................................................................... 5-148

5.84: Atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, N2O, and F-gases for three reference

scenarios, 2000-2100 ........................................................................................................ 5-153

5.85: Sectoral contributions to GHG emissions in South Africa ...................................................... 5-153

5.86: Waste hierarchy ..................................................................................................................... 5-159

5.87: Process to be followed for industry waste management plans ............................................... 5-160

5.88: The monthly average carbon dioxide concentration at Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii ....... 5-173

5.89: Variations of the earth’s surface temperature, 1000-2100 ..................................................... 5-192

5.90: Drivers of environmental change ............................................................................................ 5-208

5.91: Four scenarios of South Africa’s future environment .............................................................. 5-209

5.92: The environmental implications of the four scenarios ............................................................ 5-210


Figure 6.1: Foreign direct investment as share of GDP, 1995 and 2007 ...................................................... 6-9

6.2: Foreign direct investment by income group, 1995 and 2008 .................................................... 6-11

6.3: G-7 debt is close to post-war highs .......................................................................................... 6-15

6.4: Gross world product, 1950-2020 .............................................................................................. 6-17

6.5: Gross world product per capita, 1950-2020 ............................................................................. 6-17

6.6: Share of population living on less than $1.25 per day, by selected countries .......................... 6-23

6.7: Sector share of change in real GDP, 2002-2007, % ................................................................ 6-27

6.8: Macro-economic stability measure ........................................................................................... 6-27

6.9: Share of households in each income bracket........................................................................... 6-27

6.10: Infrastructure financing in sub-Saharan Africa ......................................................................... 6-27

6.11: Structure of the SA economy by primary, secondary and tertiary sectors, 1960-2009 ............. 6-29

6.12: Government (public) debt as a percentage of GDP, 1961-2009 .............................................. 6-31

6.13: Prime rate, inflation rate and real prime rate ............................................................................ 6-33

6.14: Growth in total domestic credit extension and the prime rate ................................................... 6-33

6.15: Current account and financial account as percentage of GDP, 1970-2009 .............................. 6-33

6.16: Household debt and savings as percentage of disposable income, 1970-2009 ....................... 6-33

6.17: GDP growth and GDP per capita growth, 1950-2009 .............................................................. 6-35

6.18: Real GDP, GDP per capita and population .............................................................................. 6-35

6.19: Consumer price index inflation, 1980-June 2010 ..................................................................... 6-37

6.20: Real total and per capita disposable income ............................................................................ 6-39

6.21: FCE as percentage of GDP...................................................................................................... 6-41

List of Figures


xii

6.22: Components of FCE ................................................................................................................. 6-41

6.23: Real gross fixed capital formation, Rm and as percentage of GDP, 1960-2009 ...................... 6-43

6.24: Real fixed capital stock, total and per capita, 1960-2009 ......................................................... 6-43

6.25: Composition of gross capital formation, 1985-2009 ................................................................. 6-43

6.26: Foreign investment as percentage of gross capital formation, 1960-2009 ............................... 6-43

6.27: Real GFCF in economic infrastructure, total and as percentage of GDP, 1960-2009 .............. 6-45

6.28: Real fixed capital stock of economic infrastructure, total and per capita, 1960-2009 ............... 6-45

6.29: Real GFCF in electricity, gas and water, total and as percentage of total GFCF, 1960-2009 .. 6-45

6.30: Real fixed capital stock of electricity, gas and water, total and per capita, 1960-2009 ............. 6-45

6.31: Exports of goods and services, 1960-2009 .............................................................................. 6-47

6.32 Imports of goods and services, 1960-2009 .............................................................................. 6-47

6.33: International Trade Openness Index ........................................................................................ 6-47

6.34: Export and import prices, and terms of trade, 1960-2009 ........................................................ 6-47

6.35: Net financial flows as percentage of GDP, 1960-2009 ............................................................. 6-49

6.36: Net financial flows by type, 1960-2009 ..................................................................................... 6-49

6.37: South Africa’s current account and financial account as percentage of GDP,

1970-2009 .......................................................................................................................... 6-51

6.38: South Africa’s foreign debt as percentage of GDP and of exports of goods and

services, 1985-2008 ............................................................................................................ 6-51

6.39: Weighted average exchange rate of the rand, 1980-2009 ....................................................... 6-53

6.40: Real weighted average exchange rate of the rand, 1990-2009 ................................................ 6-53

6.41: Unemployment rates by population group, 2001-2010 ............................................................. 6-55

6.42: Employment and gross value added to the private non-agricultural formal economy,

1960-2009 ........................................................................................................................... 6-57

6.43: Number of households as percentage of all households in high-middle and high

income groups ..................................................................................................................... 6-63

6.44: Percentage of black African households in each income group ............................................... 6-63

6.45: Trade union density for selected countries, 1999-2008 ............................................................ 6-67

6.46: Average annual hours actually worked per worker ................................................................... 6-67

6.47: Determinants of labour market flexibility .................................................................................. 6-69

6.48: Unemployment rates ................................................................................................................ 6-69

6.49: South Africa’s average capital-labour ratio in the non-agricultural formal private economy,

1960-2009 ............................................................................................................................ 6-75

6.50: Employment intensity in the South African non-agricultural formal private economy,

1960-2009, at constant 2005 prices .................................................................................... 6-75

6.51: Real average annual economic growth by province, 2000-2008 .............................................. 6-81

6.52: Provincial contribution to South Africa’s economy, 1995, 2002 and 2008 ................................ 6-81


Figure 7.1: Reasons for reporting on sustainability .................................................................................... 7-20

7.2: Vision 2050 .............................................................................................................................. 7-30

List of Tables


xiii

List of Tables


Table 1.1: Continuum of futures methods and techniques ........................................................................ 1-17

1.2: Environmental analysis techniques .......................................................................................... 1-21

1.3: Characteristics of classical forecasting compared with those of the prospective approach ..... 1-24

1.4: The 2020 Project compared to Global Trends 2025 ................................................................. 1-27

1.5: The 2025 global landscape: Relative certainties and their likely impact ................................... 1-28

1.6: The 2025 global landscape: Key uncertainties and their political consequences ..................... 1-28


Table 2.1: Human aspirations and the obstructions to the development of societies .................................. 2-5

2.2: Representation of employees by race, sex and occupational level, 2008/2009 ....................... 2-21

2.3: The three most dominant home languages in South Africa by race, 2001 ............................... 2-33

2.4: Proportional distribution of home languages by province, 2001 ............................................... 2-34

2.5: Growth in the major world religions, 1900-2000, with projections for 2025 .............................. 2-50

2.6: Religious affiliation in South Africa, 2001 ................................................................................. 2-52

2.7: Number of registered marriages and published divorces in South Africa, 1999-2008 .............. 2-59

2.8: Marital status of the SA population, 2001 ................................................................................. 2-60

2.9: Number and proportion of child-headed households by province, 2002 and 2007................... 2-61

2.10: Children living in income poverty by province and race, 2007.................................................. 2-62

2.11: Presence of father of children by race, 1993-2002 ................................................................... 2-63

2.12: HDI rankings and related indicators for South Africa, Brazil, Norway, Niger and

Libya, 2007 .......................................................................................................................... 2-71

2.13 Summary of South Africa’s poverty measurements ................................................................. 2-74

2.14: Population size and annual population growth rates of major regions, 1975-2050 .................. 2-87

2.15: Ranking of the 11 most populous countries, 1950, 2010, 2030 and 2050 ................................ 2-88

2.16: Percentage distribution of the world population within three age groups by major region,

1950-2050 ........................................................................................................................... 2-92

2.17: Median age of the world population by major region, 1950-2050 ............................................. 2-93

2.18: Labour force participation among older persons by major region, 2009 ................................... 2-94

2.19: Population size and annual population growth rates of sub-Saharan African countries

and SADC countries, 1970-2050 ......................................................................................... 2-96

2.20: Various projections of the total population of South Africa, 2000-2040 .................................... 2-99

2.21: Projected size of the South African population by race and sex, 2000-2040 ......................... 2-100

2.22: Actual and projected size of the provincial populations, 2000-2040 ....................................... 2-100

2.23: Racial composition in South Africa during census years 1980-2001, with projections

to 2040 .............................................................................................................................. 2-102

2.24: Racial composition in South Africa by province, 2010 ............................................................ 2-102

2.25: Actual and projected annual population growth rates of the South African population

by race, 1996-2040 ........................................................................................................... 2-103

2.26: Projected age distribution, median ages and old age dependency ratios of the South

African population by race, 1990-2040 .............................................................................. 2-104

2.27: Estimated internal migration in South Africa by population group, 2001-2006 ....................... 2-107

2.28: Major population concerns of governments in 2009 ............................................................... 2-111

2.29: Urban and rural population size by major region, 1975-2050 ................................................. 2-115

2.30: Urban and rural growth by major region, 1970-2050 .............................................................. 2-117

2.31: Urban population size and urbanisation levels of African countries, 1970-2050 .................... 2-122

2.32: Africa’s urban and rural growth rates by major region, 1970-2050 ......................................... 2-124

2.33: Africa’s urban population distribution by urban settlement size, 1970-2025 ........................... 2-125

2.34: Trends in urbanisation level, and urban and rural growth rates in South Africa, 1950-2050 ...... 2-126

2.35: Access of households to housing in South Africa, 1996, 2001 and 2007 ............................... 2-131

2.36: Number of households in South Africa’s nine largest cities living in informal dwellings,

1996, 2001 and 2007 ........................................................................................................ 2-131

2.37: Life expectancy at birth by major region, 1950-2050 ............................................................. 2-142

List of Tables


xiv

2.38: Projected life expectancy at birth in the 10 worst HIV-affected African countries, 1985-2025 ... 2-143

2.39: Projected life expectancy at birth of the South African population by province, 1990-2040 ....... 2-144

2.40: Crude mortality rates by major region, 1950-2050 ................................................................. 2-145

2.41: Ten leading causes of death in the world, 2004, with projections for 2030 ............................ 2-146

2.42: Projected crude mortality rates of the South African population by province, 1990-2040....... 2-148

2.43: Ten leading underlying causes of death by sex in South Africa, 2007 ................................... 2-149

2.44: Child mortality rates by major region, 1970-2050 ................................................................... 2-150

2.45: Projected child mortality rates of the South African population by province 1990-2040 ......... 2-152

2.46: Ranking of the 10 countries with the highest TB burden by number of new cases and

incidence, as well as HIV prevalence in TB cases, 2008 .................................................. 2-155

2.47: HIV/AIDS indicators by major region, 2008 ............................................................................ 2-158

2.48: HIV prevalence and AIDS deaths in the 10 worst-affected sub-Saharan countries, 2007 ...... 2-159

2.49: Estimated HIV prevalence in antenatal clinic attenders by province in South Africa,

1999-2008 ......................................................................................................................... 2-160

2.50: Projected number of HIV-infected people and AIDS deaths per province, 2005-2030 ........... 2-161

2.51: Projected demographic impact of HIV/AIDS on the total South African population,

2010-2030 ......................................................................................................................... 2-162

2.52: Public sector health care personnel in South Africa by province, 2010 .................................. 2-169

2.53: Distribution of public and private hospitals and hospital beds, as well as primary

health care facilities ........................................................................................................... 2-170

2.54: Provincial health expenditure in real terms, 2005/2006 to 2011/2012 .................................... 2-172

2.55: The 10 highest ranked countries, South Africa and the 10 lowest ranked countries

according to the Corruption Perceptions Index, 2009 ....................................................... 2-182

2.56: Ranking of countries according to the Bribe Payers Index, 2008 ........................................... 2-182

2.57: Incidence of corruption and perceived corruption in sub-Saharan African countries .............. 2-187

2.58: Violent crime rates by province, 1994/1995 and 2008/2009 .................................................. 2-189

2.59: Ranking of provinces according to property-related crime rates, 2008/2009 ......................... 2-192

2.60: Estimated number of adult illiterates and adult literacy rates by major region in

1985-1994 and 2000-2007, with projections to 2015 ........................................................ 2-207

2.61: Pre-primary enrolment and gross enrolment ratios by major region 1999 and 2007 .............. 2-208

2.62: New entrants to grade 1, primary education enrolment and net enrolment ratios by

major region, 1999 and 2007 ............................................................................................ 2-209

2.63: Estimated number of out-of-school children by major region, 1999 and 2007 ....................... 2-210

2.64: Rates of transition to, and participation in, secondary education by major region,

1999 and 2007 .................................................................................................................. 2-211

2.65: Teaching staff and learner/educator ratios in primary and secondary education by

major region, 1999 and 2007 ............................................................................................ 2-212

2.66: Tertiary education enrolment and gross enrolment ratios by major region, 1999

and 2007 ........................................................................................................................... 2-214

2.67: Tertiary education enrolment by field of study for major regions, 2007 .................................. 2-214

2.68: Top 20 universities according to the THES and SJTU world rankings, 2009 ......................... 2-216

2.69: Percentage of the adult population by level of education and by race, 1996, 2001

and 2007 ........................................................................................................................... 2-217

2.70: Training ratios by employment status, gender, race and enterprise size, 2002/2003

and 2006/2007 .................................................................................................................. 2-218

2.71: Enrolment in pre-grade R and grade R levels by province, 2005 and 2009 ........................... 2-220

2.72: Number of learners, educators and ordinary schools, as well as learner/educator

ratios and learner/school ratios by province, 2000 and 2009 ............................................ 2-220

2.73: Numeracy and literacy attainment in grades 3 and 6 systemic evaluations, 2001-2007 ........ 2-222

2.74: Current and projected learner enrolments for primary and secondary education by

province............................................................................................................................. 2-223

2.75: NSC results by province, 2007, 2008 and 2009 ..................................................................... 2-225

2.76: Condition of education facilities, 1996, 2006 and 2009 .......................................................... 2-227

2.77: Enrolment at public higher education institutions by race, 2008............................................. 2-231

2.78: Enrolment and educators at private higher education institutions by province, subjects

and programmes, 2009 ..................................................................................................... 2-233

2.79: Enrolment and educators, pass rates and drop-out rates at public FET institutions

by province, 2008 .............................................................................................................. 2-234

2.80: Returns to investment in education by level ........................................................................... 2-236

List of Tables


xv

2.81: Highest level of education for population aged 20 years and above, by population

group, 1996 and 2007 ....................................................................................................... 2-240

2.82: Provincial education expenditure, 2005/2006 to 2011/2012 ................................................... 2-241


Table 3.1: Top ten trade partners by total trade descending, 2005 and 2008 ........................................... 3-41

3.2 Proportion of households with piped water in dwelling or on site by province, 2002-2008 ....... 3-88

3.3: Proportion of households using bucket system and without sanitation facilities by

province, 2002-2008 ........................................................................................................... 3-89

3.4: Households residing in informal settlements by province, 1996-2008 ...................................... 3-89

3.5: Households with and without electricity by province, 2008 ...................................................... 3-90


Table 4.1: Selected indicators of technological competitiveness potential ................................................ 4-12

4.2: Management tasks in managing technology ............................................................................ 4-17

4.3: Forecasts of some microprocessor parameters, 2010-2022 .................................................... 4-24

4.4: The ten most powerful supercomputers ................................................................................... 4-25

4.5: Worldwide VoIP subscribers, actual and estimates .................................................................. 4-27

4.6: Broadband: Top ten countries by broadband subscribers per 100 population, 2009 ............... 4-28

4.7: Broadband: Top ten countries by number of lines .................................................................... 4-28

4.8: Global Internet usage and penetration, by region .................................................................... 4-29

4.9: e-Readiness Index top 50, 2009 .............................................................................................. 4-30

4.10: Information penetration in Africa .............................................................................................. 4-32

4.11: Some landmark events in genetic engineering......................................................................... 4-36

4.12: Area under genetically modified crops in million hectares by major country, 1996-2008 ......... 4-41

4.13: Landmark events in materials technology ................................................................................ 4-44

4.14: Comparative performance of internal combustion, hybrid and fuel cells for car engines .......... 4-58

4.15: Indicators of technological competitiveness potential for some countries ................................ 4-61

4.16: R&D and high technology in Africa ........................................................................................... 4-63

4.17: R&D expenditure by province................................................................................................... 4-66

4.18: NRF rated researchers at South African institutions, ranked by ratings within

institution type ...................................................................................................................... 4-67

4.19: Education and S&T personnel in Africa .................................................................................... 4-69

4.20: Government funding public entities and programmes .............................................................. 4-75

4.21: Selected DST performance indicators ...................................................................................... 4-79

Chapter 5: The Natural/Physical Environment

Table 5.1: Global land availability by territory/country ................................................................................. 5-6

5.2: Agricultural land availability ........................................................................................................ 5-6

5.3: South Africa’s relative land availability ....................................................................................... 5-6

5.4: The regional share of arable land, 1700-1990............................................................................ 5-7

5.5: Global land-use – areas unchanged and conversions, 1987-2006 ............................................ 5-8

5.6: Percentage distribution of estimated sources of growth in crop production in developing

countries, 1961-2005 and 2005/07-2050............................................................................... 5-9

5.7: Potential arable land and arable land in use in developing countries, 1997/1999 and 2030 ........ 5-10

5.8: Potential irrigated land and irrigated land in use in developing countries, 1997/1999 and

2030 .................................................................................................................................... 5-10

5.9: Average annual growth in the amount of land under irrigation, 1961-2007 .............................. 5-13

5.10: Logistics Performance Index rankings, 2009 ............................................................................ 5-14

5.11: Yield effects by crop and management system ........................................................................ 5-14

5.12: World food prices in 2000 and 2050 ......................................................................................... 5-15

5.13: The impact of increased crop prices on food consumption, availability and child

malnutrition .......................................................................................................................... 5-15

5.14: The Global Hunger Index, 1990 and 2009 ............................................................................... 5-19

List of Tables


xvi

5.15: Trends in food aid in Africa, 2000/02 to 2004/06 ...................................................................... 5-20

5.16: Growth in demand for, and production of, agricultural products, 1991-2050 ............................ 5-21

5.17: Per capita food consumption, 1969/1971-2050 ........................................................................ 5-22

5.18: Fertiliser consumption and growth in developing countries, 1961/63-2030 .............................. 5-26

5.19: Land restitution to 2008/09 ....................................................................................................... 5-28

5.20: Land redistribution to 2008/2009 .............................................................................................. 5-29

5.21: Trends in production and consumption of sawnwood, 1965-2030 ........................................... 5-33

5.22: Production of bioenergy, 1970-2030 ........................................................................................ 5-33

5.23: Plantation area by species and ownership ............................................................................... 5-35

5.24: Freshwater resource availability versus population distribution by major region,

2010 and 2030 .................................................................................................................... 5-41

5.25: The Millennium Development Goal target: Past performance and future targets for

water and sanitation ............................................................................................................ 5-44

5.26: Natural mean annual runoff, ecological reserve and available freshwater yield

by water management area, 2000 ...................................................................................... 5-46

5.27: Freshwater availability and requirements in South Africa by water management area,

2000 and 2025 in million m3 per annum .............................................................................. 5-47

5.28: World fish production, utilisation and consumption, 2007-2009, with estimates for 2010 ......... 5-63

5.29: South African mineral production growth rates......................................................................... 5-82

5.30: Proved reserves of non-renewable energy resources, at the end of 2009 ............................... 5-92

5.31: World energy consumption by energy source, reference case scenario, 2005-2035 ............... 5-93

5.32: Energy efficiency of South Africa and selected countries, and CO2 emissions ........................ 5-94

5.33: Oil reserves, production and consumption as a percentage of the world total, 2009 ............... 5-95

5.34: Coal reserves, production and consumption in selected countries, 2009 ................................. 5-97

5.35: Natural gas reserves, production and consumption in selected regions, 2009 ........................ 5-98

5.36: Known recoverable resources of uranium, 2009 ...................................................................... 5-99

5.37: Current and potential use of renewable energy sources, in TWh per annum ........................ 5-100

5.38: Key regional renewables indicators for 2004 ......................................................................... 5-101

5.39: Renewable energy added and existing capacities, 2009 ....................................................... 5-102

5.40: Investment in renewable energy and renewable energy policies, 2007-2009 ........................ 5-103

5.41: Global clean energy jobs for the solar and wind industry, 2009-2019 .................................... 5-103

5.42: Potential contribution of renewable energy in South Africa, different assessments ............... 5-105

5.43: South African energy sector jobs in 2010, 2020 and 2030 ..................................................... 5-106

5.44: Per capita electricity consumption, percentage change in per capita electricity

consumption, carbon intensity and change in carbon intensity, South Africa

and selected countries ...................................................................................................... 5-106

5.45: Eskom power station net maximum capacity ......................................................................... 5-107

5.46: Capacity and demand-side management requirements for 2009 to 2013 .............................. 5-108

5.47: World CO2 emissions by fuel type, 2007-2035, in million tonnes of CO2................................ 5-110

5.48: Fossil fuel-related CO2 emissions in South Africa, 1997-2007 ............................................... 5-111

5.49: Environmental impact of electricity generation in South Africa ............................................... 5-112

5.50: South Africa and the ten countries with the highest ecological footprints, 2005 ..................... 5-119

5.51: Number of extinct and threatened species by major groups of organisms in the

world, 2010 ........................................................................................................................ 5-120

5.52: Ecosystem status in South Africa, 2004 ................................................................................. 5-124

5.53: Quantity of e-waste generated in tonnes/year, selected countries ......................................... 5-139

5.54: Diseases and water-borne pollution ....................................................................................... 5-143

5.55: Projected premature annual deaths due to urban air pollution, total and by economic

group or region, 2001-2020 ............................................................................................... 5-150

5.56: Illustrative estimates of the global order of magnitude of potential additional

sustainability-related business opportunities in key sectors in 2050 ................................. 5-162


Table 6.1: Population and economic output by region and selected countries............................................ 6-7

6.2: Structure of output, 1995 and 2008 ............................................................................................ 6-7

6.3: Structure of demand, 2008 ......................................................................................................... 6-7

6.4: Economic growth, export and import volume growth, and international trade in

goods and services ............................................................................................................... 6-9

List of Tables


xvii

6.5: Share of World GNI and world population, and GNI per capita by income and region, 2008 ... 6-11

6.6: Structure of output for various countries, regions and the world, 1995 and 2008..................... 6-13

6.7: Changes in the labour force for selected countries, 1950-2008 ............................................... 6-13

6.8: The global outlook in summary ................................................................................................ 6-15

6.9: Projections for GDP and GDP per capita, 2000-2050 .............................................................. 6-17

6.10: The 20 largest economies in the world in 2008, according to PPP GNI in US$ ....................... 6-19

6.11: Business environment, June 2009 ........................................................................................... 6-19

6.12: Sub-Saharan Africa in a global context: Socio-economic fact sheet ........................................ 6-23

6.13: Dimensions of income distribution, latest survey year .............................................................. 6-23

6.14: The economies of Africa and the provinces of South Africa: Comparative statistics, 2008 ...... 6-25

6.15 Sectoral contribution to total value added in constant 2005 terms ........................................... 6-29

6.16: Selected items of general government expenditure as percentage of total government

expenditure, 1979/1980-2009/2010 .................................................................................... 6-31

6.17: Government expenditure as a share of GDP, 1960-2008 ........................................................ 6-31

6.18: Percentage contribution of various kinds of taxes to total tax revenue, 1970-2010 .................. 6-31

6.19: The purchasing power of R1 000, 1940-2009 .......................................................................... 6-37

6.20: Consumer price inflation for selected countries, 1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2008,

mid-2009 and mid-2010 ...................................................................................................... 6-37

6.21: Annual household income by decile, 2005/2006 ...................................................................... 6-39

6.22: Average annual income of households by population group .................................................... 6-39

6.23: Distribution of household income across deciles, 2005/2006 ................................................... 6-39

6.24: Average annual growth in the various components of FCE, 1960-2009 .................................. 6-41

6.25: Total foreign liabilities and assets of South Africa by region and selected countries,

31 December 2008 .............................................................................................................. 6-49

6.26: South Africa’s gross gold and foreign exchange reserves and import cover ratio,

1975-2009 ........................................................................................................................... 6-51

6.27: External debt as percentage of GNI: International comparison, 1995 and 2007 ...................... 6-51

6.28: Exchange rate value of the rand expressed in terms of the rand’s value in foreign

exchange markets, 1957-2009 ............................................................................................ 6-53

6.29: Average annual change in the exchange rate of the rand, 1980-2009 ..................................... 6-53

6.30: Labour force participation, absorption and unemployment by sex, Mar 2001, Mar 2003,

Mar 2008 and Mar 2010 ...................................................................................................... 6-55

6.31: Unemployment rate by province, Mar 2001, Mar 2003, Mar 2008 and Mar 2010 .................... 6-55

6.32: Employment by sector, Mar 2001, Mar 2003, Mar 2008 and Mar 2010 ................................... 6-55

6.33: Employment by main industry, Mar 2001-2010 ........................................................................ 6-57

6.34: Job losses/gains in the non-agricultural sectors between 1989 and 2009 ............................... 6-57

6.35: Employment scenarios to 2014 ................................................................................................ 6-59

6.36: Employment scenarios to 2024 ................................................................................................ 6-59

6.37: Poverty measures by population group and gender, 1993, 2000 and 2008 ............................. 6-61

6.38: Social assistance support grants, 1996/1997-2008/2009 ......................................................... 6-61

6.39: South Africa’s black African middle-class aged 16 years and older ......................................... 6-63

6.40: Annual per capita personal income by population group in 2000 rands and relative to

white levels, 1917-2008...................................................................................................... 6-65

6.41: Gini coefficients by population group and location, 1993, 2000 and 2008 ............................... 6-65

6.42: Basic services in South Africa, 1996-2008 ............................................................................... 6-65

6.43: Employment in South Africa by sex and number of hours worked, Jun 2010 .......................... 6-67

6.44: Projected changes in the size of the labour force, 2000-2015 ................................................. 6-71

6.45: South Africa’s capital-output ratio, 1960-2009, at constant 2000 prices ................................... 6-75

6.46: Employment by occupation, Mar 2001-Mar 2010 ..................................................................... 6-77

6.47: Highest level of education of the employed in March 2010 ...................................................... 6-77

6.48: Highest level of education of the unemployed in March 2010 .................................................. 6-77

6.49: GNI per worker, selected regions and countries, 2008 ............................................................ 6-79

6.50: Provincial contribution to South Africa’s GDP by sector, 2008 ................................................. 6-81


Table 7.1: Sustainability challenges, competencies and opportunities ..................................................... 7-27

List of Exhibits


xviii

List of Exhibits


Exhibit 1.1: A selection of paradoxical statements .......................................................................................1-15 1.2: Mind sets required to anticipate future change ..........................................................................1-15 1.3: Taxonomy of futures research methods ....................................................................................1-18 1.4: Three areas that will touch the lives of everyone during the next 30 years ...............................1-30

1.5: 15 global challenges ..................................................................................................................1-30 1.6: Large-scale problems that the world faces ................................................................................1-31 1.7: Organisational models and their implications for management .................................................1-35


Exhibit 2.1: Diversity tensions: Challenges, lessons learnt and social action ...............................................2-11 2.2 How the MPI is calculated: The Alkire Foster method ...............................................................2-73 2.3: Official list of MDG goals and targets ........................................................................................2-78 2.4: China’s one-child policy .............................................................................................................2-89 2.5: Demographic profile of the emerging black African middle class ............................................2-105 2.6: The Gauteng Urban Region ....................................................................................................2-128 2.7: The global tobacco epidemic – some facts..............................................................................2-147 2.8: Alcohol abuse – some facts.....................................................................................................2-147 2.9: The determinants of health in South Africa .............................................................................2-149 2.10: Key elements of an HIV/AIDS workplace policy and an HIV/AIDS workplace programme ......2-167 2.11: Public health-care sector vs private health-care sector: Some shortcomings, strengths and challenges ..................................................................................................................2-168 2.12: The 10-point health priority areas for the 2009/2010 – 2013/2014 period ...............................2-174 2.13: Policy proposals for sustainable corporate integrity ................................................................2-184 2.14: Conclusions regarding the crime situation in South Africa ......................................................2-201 2.15: The Education For All goals and the education-related MDGs ................................................2-206 2.16: The National Benchmark Tests, 2009 .....................................................................................2-226 2.17: National Schools Violence Study .............................................................................................2-229 2.18: Recommendations for an improved implementation of the NCS .............................................2-243 2.19: Strategic recommendations for education reform in South Africa by the OECD report ...........2-244


Exhibit 3.1: Regional integration schemes in Southern Africa ......................................................................3-64 3.2: China’s top ten African trading partners in 2008........................................................................3-67 3.3: Chinese investment in Africa .....................................................................................................3-69 3.4: The Constitution of the Republic of South Africa 1996 ............................................................3-100


Exhibit 4.1: The five technological transformations ......................................................................................4-19 4.2: A brief history of nanotechnology ..............................................................................................4-46 4.3: Major flows of funding for R&D in South Africa, 2006/07 ...........................................................4-65

Chapter 5: The Natural/Physical Environment

Exhibit 5.1: Hunger is increasing ................................................................................................................ 5-19 5.2: Actions to overcome water-food-environment issues and challenges ...................................... 5-53 5.3: Strategies to alleviate water scarcity in South Africa ................................................................ 5-54 5.4: Fish and aquaculture scenario for sub-Saharan Africa, 2006-2015 ......................................... 5-64 5.5: The impact of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture .................................................... 5-65 5.6: Strategic plan for the environmental sector 2008-2013: Marine and coastal management ....................................................................................................................... 5-70 5.7: Estimated timelines for IRP2010 ............................................................................................ 5-107

List of Exhibits


xix

5.8: Examples of emission reduction activities by selected high emitter companies ..................... 5-114 5.9: Trends shown by agreed indicators of progress towards the 2010 biodiversity target ........... 5-118 5.10: Protected areas ...................................................................................................................... 5-127 5.11: Ecosystem restoration ............................................................................................................ 5-127 5.12: Twenty of the world’s worst pollution problems ...................................................................... 5-133 5.13: Other top pollution problems .................................................................................................. 5-133 5.14: Understanding pollutants and their sources ........................................................................... 5-134 5.15: Water quality problems in South Africa .................................................................................. 5-143 5.16: Possible health and environmental effects of major air pollutants .......................................... 5-155 5.17: Sound levels and human response ........................................................................................ 5-157 5.18: South African legislation impacting on four waste-related international conventions. ............ 5-161 5.19: Green jobs progress to date and future potential ................................................................... 5-163 5.20: Commercial opportunities in South Africa’s environmental industry ....................................... 5-164 5.21: Global greenhouse gas emission by sector ........................................................................... 5-172 5.22: A summary of measurement of changes in the earth’s temperature ...................................... 5-176 5.23: Recent trends, assessment of human influence on the trend, and projections for extreme weather events for which there is an observed late 20

th century trend ................ 5-177

5.24: Risks and opportunities for different economic sectors .......................................................... 5-185 5.25: Summary of sector risks ......................................................................................................... 5-186 5.26: Highest priority climate change impacts on the UK energy industry ....................................... 5-187 5.27: Climate drivers, thresholds, climate shifts and social consequences ..................................... 5-189 5.28: Key landmark events in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change ...... 5-192 5.29: Summary of the Kyoto Protocol .............................................................................................. 5-194 5.30: Typical projects that could qualify for CDM financing ............................................................. 5-197 5.31: Indicators in support of the project approval criteria ............................................................... 5-198 5.32: CDM project status ................................................................................................................ 5-199


Exhibit 6.1: A new world order? ...................................................................................................................6-21 6.2: Employment equity in South Africa: Arguments for and against ...............................................6-71 6.3: South Africa’s global competitiveness .......................................................................................6-79 6.4: South Africa’s two economies ...................................................................................................6-83 6.5: Ingredients for sustained and high economic growth ................................................................6-83 6.6: IMF comments about South Africa’s economy, Sep 2010 ........................................................6-85 6.7: The NIPF vision for South Africa’s industrialisation trajectory ...................................................6-87 6.13: The NIPF and its links with other policy initiatives .....................................................................6-87


Exhibit 7.1: Core challenges of sustainable development..............................................................................7-6 7.2: The sustainable development timeline ........................................................................................7-7

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