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The Labor Market Situation June 10, 2013

Dr. Jennifer Hunt Chief Economist

US Department of Labor

Office of the Chief Economist

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Steady job growth since February 2010

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics Program

Over-the-month change, in thousands

• May: 178

• April: 157

• March: 154

12-month change, in thousands

• May 2012 to May 2013: 2,173

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Steady unemployment decline since end 2009

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Professional & Business Services led job growth (again) this month

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Since the end of the recession, many industries have not recovered their employment losses

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Long-term unemployed share falling

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Problem is not layoffs, but low hiring rate

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A Quick look at Consumption Trends Post-Recession

Office of the Chief Economist

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Consumption and disposable income both fell, but they were offset (slightly) by government transfers

Source: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the Great

Recession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality.

BEA, NIPA tables 2.1, 2.3.4, and 2.3.5.

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All components of consumption fell in this recession, and were slow to recover

Source: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the Great

Recession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality.

BEA, NIPA tables 2.1, 2.3.4, and 2.3.5.

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Unlike previous cycles, consumption has not returned to the previous peak, especially for services

Source: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the Great

Recession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality.

BEA, NIPA tables 2.1, 2.3.4, and 2.3.5.

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Widespread financial difficulties in 2009, but poor job market and rising prices main issues for low-income.

Source: Petev, Ivaylo D., & Pistaferri, Luigi. 2012. Consumption in the Great

Recession. Stanford, CA: Stanford Center on Poverty and Inequality.

University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment

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Thank you!