may 2015 jobs report observations (grant toch)

18
May 2015 Jobs Report Observations As has become customary, my jobs report comments stay away from the headline data and talk only to those data points that I find interesting. Comments involve three broad topics: (i) the number of jobs; (ii) the quality of the jobs; and (iii) wages. 1. Number of Jobs The May 2015 headline number was better than expected and the revisions to April 2015 were higher. That said, as you can see below, April 2015 PRIVATE payroll revisions were -8k: A prilO riginal A prl-R evised D ifference M ining and Lodging (15) (15) 0 C onstruction 45 35 (10) Manufacturing 1 1 0 W holesale Trade (5) (2) 2 Retail 12 13 1 Transportation and W arehouse 15 11 (4) Inform ation -Technology 3 8 5 FinancialS ervices 9 8 (1) P rofessionaland B usiness S ervices,E x-Tem p 46 50 4 Temporary 16 16 0 E ducation and H ealth S ervices 61 64 3 Leisure and H ospitality 17 10 (7) Other 7 7 (1) Total 213 206 (8) A pril2015 P rivate S ector Job R evisions As you can see below, job growth was fueled by a surge in education and health services jobs followed by leisure and hospitality, professional services excluding temporary services and retail. Mining and logging saw the largest decline while manufacturing job growth is slowing:

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Page 1: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

May 2015 Jobs Report Observations

As has become customary, my jobs report comments stay away from the headline data and talk only to those data points that I find interesting. Comments involve three broad topics: (i) the number of jobs; (ii) the quality of the jobs; and (iii) wages.

1. Number of Jobs

The May 2015 headline number was better than expected and the revisions to April 2015 were higher. That said, as you can see below, April 2015 PRIVATE payroll revisions were -8k:

April Original Aprl - Revised Difference Mining and Lodging (15) (15) 0

Construction 45 35 (10)

Manufacturing 1 1 0

Wholesale Trade (5) (2) 2

Retail 12 13 1

Transportation and Warehouse 15 11 (4)

Information - Technology 3 8 5

Financial Services 9 8 (1)

Professional and Business Services, Ex-Temp 46 50 4

Temporary 16 16 0

Education and Health Services 61 64 3

Leisure and Hospitality 17 10 (7)

Other 7 7 (1)

Total 213 206 (8)

April 2015 Private Sector Job Revisions

As you can see below, job growth was fueled by a surge in education and health services jobs followed by leisure and hospitality, professional services excluding temporary services and retail. Mining and logging saw the largest decline while manufacturing job growth is slowing:

Page 2: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

May June July August September October November December January February March April May TotalMining and Lodging 2 5 9 2 6 2 1 1 (7) (14) (12) (15) (18) (38)

% of total -1.2%

Construction 9 8 30 17 18 16 30 44 41 31 (9) 35 17 287% of total 9.0%

Manufacturing 15 21 24 3 20 24 45 19 17 3 0 1 7 199% of total 6.2%

Wholesale Trade 6 13 3 5 3 8 8 14 12 10 10 (2) 4 95% of total 3.0%

Retail 12 35 21 (4) 40 33 61 (0) 35 23 25 13 31 326% of total 10.2%

Transportation and Warehouse 17 13 21 11 7 13 26 38 (13) 9 8 11 13 175% of total 5.5%

Information - Technology (6) 11 10 14 3 (6) 7 6 6 7 0 8 (3) 57% of total 1.8%

Financial Services 8 19 15 12 14 4 28 7 19 9 7 8 13 163% of total 5.1%

Professional and Business Services, Ex-Temp 43 55 34 28 43 32 65 51 28 53 22 50 43 547% of total . 17.2%

Temporary 15 15 16 21 23 19 31 21 (8) (4) 13 16 20 197% of total 6.2%

Education and Health Services 58 48 37 50 35 44 51 54 42 61 35 64 74 653% of total 20.5%

Leisure and Hospitality 45 21 10 26 47 60 42 56 24 61 (6) 10 57 453% of total 14.2%

Other 4 (5) 3 11 0 5 19 8 5 11 2 7 3 73% of total 2.3%

Total 227 260 233 197 259 254 414 319 202 261 95 206 262 3,187

Average 245

Private Job Detail (May 2014-May 2015), Revised

We make a few comments about a few of the highlighted sectors below:

a. Education and Health: ambulatory health care services and hospital employees are leading the surgeb. Leisure and Hospitality: performing arts, spectator sports, amusement parks, gambling, accommodation,

and restaurants are seeing the growthc. Mining and Logging: No one is surprised these jobs are declining but the decline has almost nothing to

do with oil and gas extraction and is being felt only in support activities for mining. Focusing on the oil and gas extraction job sub-sector, we can see job loss has been minimal here:

Page 3: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

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Oil and Gas Extraction Jobs, Level Data

Oil and Gas Extraction Jobs, Level Data

This contrasts with the decline in the rig count:

100

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2,100

2,600

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Baker Hughes Rig Count

Baker Hughes Rig Count

As a result, oil and gas extraction jobs per rig is now approaching all time highs:

Page 4: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

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Oil and Gas Employee/Rig

Oil and Gas Employee/Rig

d. Manufacturing: Manufacturing job creation is slowing:

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

1/1/

1940

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Manufacturing Jobs, Y/Y

Manufacturing Jobs, Y/Y

Page 5: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

The labor participation rate is trying to stabilize:

58.0%

60.0%

62.0%

64.0%

66.0%

68.0%

2/1/

1948

5/1/

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1

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0

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9

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8

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Civilian Labor Force/Civilian Non-Institutional Population

Civilian Labor Force/Civilian Non-Institutional Population

But labor force gains are dramatically slower than job gains, which is surprising:

Page 6: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

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Civilian Labor Force versus Total People Employed (Household Survey) versus Non-Farm Payrolls

(Establishment Survey) - June 2009 to Present Where June 2009 = 100

Civilian Labor Force Total People Employed (Household Survey)

Non-Farm Payrolls (Establishment Survey)

Perhaps no one wants a job:

Page 7: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

29.0%

30.0%

31.0%

32.0%

33.0%

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35.0%

36.0%1/

1/19

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Not In Labor Force AND Do NOT Want a Job/Civilian Non-Institutional Population

Not In Labor Force AND Do NOT Want a Job

2. Quality of Jobs

At a high level, job growth is not translating into GDP growth, at least not at levels we are accustomed to seeing:

Page 8: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

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14.0%

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GDP/Non-Farm Payroll Employee, Y/Y

GDP/Non-Farm Payroll Employee, Y/Y

Full-time jobs did increase but remain, from a level perspective, below pre-recession levels:

108000

110000

112000

114000

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Full time Non-Farm Payrolls (1999-Present)

Full time Non-Farm Payrolls (1999-Present)

Page 9: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

Relative to the size of the labor force, full time jobs remain well below pre-recession levels:

80%

81%

81%

82%

82%

83%

83%

84%

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Full Time Employees/Total Labor Force (2000-Present)

Full Time Employees/Total Labor Force (2000-Present)

Part-time jobs did decline BUT ONLY BECAUSE OF DECINES IN THOSE WORKING PART-TIME FOR NON-ECONOMIC REASONS (blue line). THOSE WORKING PART-TIME BECAUSE OF SLACK ECONOMIC CONDITIONS (red line) AND BECAUSE THE PERSON COULD NOT FIND FULL TIME WORK (green line) ACTUALLY INCREASED:

Page 10: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

50.0

60.0

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Part Time Workers By Reason (June 2009 = 100 For Each Category)

Non-Economic Reasons Slack Business Conditions Can Only Find Part Time Work

If those working part time because they cannot find full time were back at pre-recession levels, the full time work force would be almost 1.2m workers greater than current levels.

3. Wages

Average hourly wage growth has broken out of its multi-year range:

Page 11: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

Average Hourly Wages Nominal, Y/Y

Ave ra ge Ho u rl y W ag es, Y /Y

But 80% of the workforce is not sharing in this trend:

0.0%

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4.0%

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8.0%

10.0%

1965

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Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees, Private Sector,

Y/Y

Average Hourly Earnings of Production and Nonsupervisory Employees, Private Sector,Y/Y

Looking below, we see that two of the three fastest growing jobs sectors (green highlights in left column) have wages growing faster than the y/y average wage growth rate. That said, two of these three sectors have overall average hourly wages below the average hourly wage (on an unweighted basis):

Page 12: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

Type % of Overall Growth Average Wage Growth, y/y Average Hourly Wage Growth, 3 Month Annual % of Labor Force Average Hourly Wage

Leisure and Hospitality 14.2% 3.6% 3.6% 10.2% $14.32Financial Services 5.1% 3.0% 3.0% 4.1% $31.52Construction 9.0% 2.7% 2.7% 4.3% $27.34Professional and Business Services, Ex-Temp 17.2% 2.6% 2.6% 14.8% $29.98Retail 10.2% 2.5% 2.5% 10.5% $17.41Wholesale Trade 3.0% 2.4% 2.4% 4.0% $28.73Information - Technology 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% 1.9% $34.63Other 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 3.8% $22.36Education and Health Services 20.5% 2.1% 2.1% 14.8% $25.19Manufacturing 6.2% 1.8% 1.8% 8.3% $25.16Mining and Lodging -1.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% $31.02Temporary 6.2% 2.0%Transportation and Warehouse 5.5% 3.2%

Average 7.7% 2.4% 2.9% $26.15

Private Sector Job Growth, May 2014 - May 2015

Overall, this is the chart that must be reconciled. Either spending must accelerate or revisions to the jobs data might just be meaningfully negative:

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

Personal Consumption Expenditures, Nominal Deflated by Non-Farm Payrolls

Personal Consumption Expenditures, Nominal Deflated by Non-Farm Payrolls Average

For those interested, below are the charts of the average hourly wages by job sector. Six sectors are growing above average and five sectors are growing below average. Wholesale trade saw the marked acceleration:

Page 13: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

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Manufacturing - Average Hourly Wage Growth, Y/Y

Manufacturing - Average Hourly Wage Growth, Y/Y

0.0%

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2.0%

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6.0%

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Construction - Average Hourly Wage Growth, Y/Y

Construction - Average Hourly Wage Growth, Y/Y

Page 14: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%3/

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Mining and Lodging - Average Hourly Wage Growth

Mining and Lodging - Average Hourly Wage Growth

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

3/1/

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2015

Wholesale Trade - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

Wholesale Trade - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

Page 15: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

3/1/

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Retail - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

Retail - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

3/1/

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/200

7

3/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

11/1

/200

8

3/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

3/1/

2010

7/1/

2010

11/1

/201

0

3/1/

2011

7/1/

2011

11/1

/201

1

3/1/

2012

7/1/

2012

11/1

/201

2

3/1/

2013

7/1/

2013

11/1

/201

3

3/1/

2014

7/1/

2014

11/1

/201

4

3/1/

2015

Utilities - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

Utilities - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

Page 16: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

3/1/

2007

7/1/

2007

11/1

/200

7

3/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

11/1

/200

8

3/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

3/1/

2010

7/1/

2010

11/1

/201

0

3/1/

2011

7/1/

2011

11/1

/201

1

3/1/

2012

7/1/

2012

11/1

/201

2

3/1/

2013

7/1/

2013

11/1

/201

3

3/1/

2014

7/1/

2014

11/1

/201

4

3/1/

2015

Information - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

Information - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

3/1/

2007

7/1/

2007

11/1

/200

7

3/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

11/1

/200

8

3/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

3/1/

2010

7/1/

2010

11/1

/201

0

3/1/

2011

7/1/

2011

11/1

/201

1

3/1/

2012

7/1/

2012

11/1

/201

2

3/1/

2013

7/1/

2013

11/1

/201

3

3/1/

2014

7/1/

2014

11/1

/201

4

3/1/

2015

Education and Health Services - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

Education and Health Services - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

Page 17: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%3/

1/20

07

8/1/

2007

1/1/

2008

6/1/

2008

11/1

/200

8

4/1/

2009

9/1/

2009

2/1/

2010

7/1/

2010

12/1

/201

0

5/1/

2011

10/1

/201

1

3/1/

2012

8/1/

2012

1/1/

2013

6/1/

2013

11/1

/201

3

4/1/

2014

9/1/

2014

2/1/

2015

Leisure and Hospitality - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

Leisure and Hospitality - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

3/1/

2007

8/1/

2007

1/1/

2008

6/1/

2008

11/1

/200

8

4/1/

2009

9/1/

2009

2/1/

2010

7/1/

2010

12/1

/201

0

5/1/

2011

10/1

/201

1

3/1/

2012

8/1/

2012

1/1/

2013

6/1/

2013

11/1

/201

3

4/1/

2014

9/1/

2014

2/1/

2015

Financial Activities - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

Financial Activities - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

Page 18: May 2015 Jobs Report Observations (Grant Toch)

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%3/

1/20

07

7/1/

2007

11/1

/200

7

3/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

11/1

/200

8

3/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

3/1/

2010

7/1/

2010

11/1

/201

0

3/1/

2011

7/1/

2011

11/1

/201

1

3/1/

2012

7/1/

2012

11/1

/201

2

3/1/

2013

7/1/

2013

11/1

/201

3

3/1/

2014

7/1/

2014

11/1

/201

4

3/1/

2015

Professional and Business Services -Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

Professional and Business Services - Average Hourly Wages, Y/Y

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

3/1/

2007

7/1/

2007

11/1

/200

7

3/1/

2008

7/1/

2008

11/1

/200

8

3/1/

2009

7/1/

2009

11/1

/200

9

3/1/

2010

7/1/

2010

11/1

/201

0

3/1/

2011

7/1/

2011

11/1

/201

1

3/1/

2012

7/1/

2012

11/1

/201

2

3/1/

2013

7/1/

2013

11/1

/201

3

3/1/

2014

7/1/

2014

11/1

/201

4

3/1/

2015

Other Services - Average Hourly Wages - Y/Y

Other Services - Average Hourly Wages - Y/Y